Sunetra Gupta Profile
Sunetra Gupta

@SunetraGupta

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Joined October 2014
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Thank you for picking out the perfect summary of my position
@dockaurG
Kulvinder Kaur MD
2 years
"We inverted precautionary principle of trying to minimize harm by doing the one thing that we knew would cause harm: lockdowns.. What we do see very sadly.. harms unfolded.. We sit watching devastation that we knew these measures would cause 2yrs ago” —Oxford Prof @SunetraGupta
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
That’s absolute nonsense and highly offensive
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
9 months
In the September 2020 meeting with PM Johnson, all the scientists except Edmunds favoured the Swedish approach. Unfortunately we failed to convince Johnson and the UK locked down shortly after.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
This could never have been anticipated but we must still all in the biomedical community take responsibility for this, even those who warned against vaccinating individuals who were very unlikely to develop life-threatening symptoms upon infection,
@VPrasadMDMPH
Vinay Prasad MD MPH
2 years
Damage to vax programs will be horrific in decades to come. This administration has made major errors. It pushed too hard on the wrong ages, wrong risk groups; It demanded too little evidence from Pfizer. When necessary childhood vaccine programs collapse, they will be to blame
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
Thank you, Allison, for your support and let’s hope 2022 is a better year for all of us
@AllisonPearson
Allison Pearson
3 years
We salute the great @MartinKulldorff @DrJBhattacharya and @SunetraGupta who never foreswore the principles of epidemiology to fall in line with a cowardly and hysterical anti-scientific consensus. History will restore them to their rightful place.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
Models are wonderful conceptual tools, but should never be used to make predictions in the face of high uncertainty We need strategies - like Focused Protection - that are robust to uncertainty, rather than unreliable predictions.
@JobbingLeftieH
Mike Haynes - a Jobbing Leftie Historian
3 years
1/- The problem with epidemiological modelling The discussion of their meaning reflects 1. Unexpected centrality of these models in policy formation. 2. Lack of serious discussion (including by modellers) of their philosophy. [nice short piece here}
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
Thanks, Allison. Here's the original paper from July 2020 showing how it impacts cumulative mortality
@AllisonPearson
Allison Pearson
3 years
Exactly what Professor @SunetraGupta said from the very beginning. The common cold had given many of us some protection against Covid.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
2. Misrepresenting the @gbdeclaration as a “let-it-rip” strategy and yet endorsing focused protection has lately become a common ploy among scientists and journalists but it is disappointing to see it trotted out by old friends and colleagues. @guardian
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
4. Lockdown is not just a dial you can turn up and down at will. Focused protection presents the only viable solution, given the harms of lockdown.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
EDITORIAL: Putting children and their social interactions first will be key to mental health recovery in a post-pandemic world - Collateral Global
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
7 months
One would have thought that there would be measures in place to prevent this relentless misrepresentation of our position in a setting which resembles a court of law
@DrJBhattacharya
Jay Bhattacharya
7 months
That a "circuit breaker" lockdown would have saved lives in September/October 2020 is a fantasy. Scotland had their circuit breaker then but had worse covid outcomes than England. Also, Hugo Keith is an ignorant interlocutor. The @gbdeclaration did not call for "let it rip." It
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
4 years
Finally breaking my twitter silence with this:
@EEID_oxford
EEID research group
4 years
Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic (soon to be on medRxiv) @SunetraGupta
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
3. Those who are desperate to distance themselves from the GBD fail to acknowledge is that it is impossible to avoid the harms of lockdown and yet mitigate spread. @gbdeclaration @guardian
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
So disappointing to have to battle this out in the media rather than through a phonecall, Danny, but here are some explainers on what herd immunity actually means and how it is independent of the rate of loss of immunity
@DanielHadas2
Daniel Hadas
2 years
In which an immunologist at Imperial College London discovers that a virus that brings only short-term immunity, and for which we have only a non-sterilising vaccine, cannot be eliminated.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
@DrJBhattacharya Reinstated in the hope of enticing you both back…
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
7 months
Another, more general (and certainly more parsimonious) explanation is that the primary drivers were herd immunity and seasonality rather than either voluntary or mandated behaviour change
@FraserNelson
Fraser Nelson
7 months
3. An alternative hypothesis: that the virus is reversed when people take evasive action. This was happening MORE in the UK than Sweden, rejectng the idea that unruly Brits needed the police sent after them.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
I am deeply saddened and disappointed in your characterisation of the GBD although I know you mean well, Francois
@DrJBhattacharya
Jay Bhattacharya
3 years
This is naive, Prof. Balloux. You are protecting your good nature on powerful lockdowners like Fauci, Collins, and Farrar, who by Oct. 2020 had already caused devastating harm. In their hubris, they would never have compromised, as that would have meant admitting error. [1/2]
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
Thank you to Freddie and the rest of the UnHerd crew for scrupulously seeking to present every side of this debate right from the start
@freddiesayers
Freddie Sayers
1 year
In 2020, Prof @SunetraGupta was pilloried for her suggestion to @UnHerd that the Covid Infection Fatality Rate could be close to 5 in 10,000. Three years on, new data from Denmark suggests the real figure is... 6.5 in 10,000. Read her response here:
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
4 years
Thank you, James, for adding substantially to our analyses and for getting the message across far more clearly than us - as Jose has already said.
@jameshay218
James Hay
4 years
A recent analysis from Oxford presented a range of model scenarios consistent with observed COVID death counts. I’m going to reproduce their analysis here and then present some slight modifications to provide a conservative (if technical) perspective. (gonna be 15ish tweets)
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
“We are all responsible for this…as well as not being directly to blame”
@DrAseemMalhotra
Dr Aseem Malhotra
2 years
Before I exposed ambulance delay cover up in my dad’s death I was told by a senior NHS cardiologist not to as it ‘would make me enemies’ I ignored his advice because ‘Those who do nothing are inviting shame. Those who act boldly are recognising right as well as reality’ JFK
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
I agree with everything that you say and my opinion, for what it’s worth, is this was not a lab leak – but how can you say you uphold these principles when you have repeatedly vilified me and others for suggesting that lockdowns were not the most humane solution to this crisis?
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
9 months
@R_Hughes1 Not everything needs to be (or is indeed amenable to being) modelled. We have other respectable tools to aid our thinking. Here's why I believe lockdowns were illogical and violated the Precautionary Principle-
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
Strange to think that this was three years ago
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
Our attempts to challenge their conclusions were invariably rejected without review Waning of infection-blocking immunity with seasonality in transmission is sufficient to explain the dynamics
@FraserNelson
Fraser Nelson
1 year
There was an early Warwick study suggesting EOTO made things worse - but this theory disproven by later data.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
Thank you, Molly
@LBC
LBC
3 years
'This is really devastating for children.' @UsforThemUK co-founder Molly Kingsley reacts to news that English secondary school pupils will have to wear face masks in classrooms again. @ianpaynesport | @lensiseethrough
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
11 months
@KonstantinKisin Ironically, he is correct on the point that what protects the individual does not stop the spread of the virus in the community This is why focused protection works but it is misguided to assume that these same measures can halt or slow the epidemic
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
This article misrepresents our views
@apsmunro
Alasdair Munro
2 years
Really important article on the polarisation of public scientific discourse in covid, dominated by extreme views Needless to say it’s not representative of most scientists It’s just what generates most clicks It was never zero covid vs do nothing
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
10 months
"In the past three years, Green has been the only prominent academic historian in Europe and North America to persistently retrace and denounce the impacts of the global pandemic in Africa & the Global South and debate these impacts in the public sphere"
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
1. To my mind, the only coherent explanation for the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in most global settings is that it played out as a classic coronavirus (SIRS with seasonality), with the first peak occurring in many regions before March 2020
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
It is indeed telling that they will not engage directly with me and the tone of their messages is quite shocking. I’m happy to discuss the issues directly with them as Twitter is not the best platform for it. I'll follow through with some points they will need to consider.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
That’s very well put, thank you
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
A lovely reason to break my Twitter silence -
@ox_pods
OxPods
1 year
New episode today with @SunetraGupta from @OxfordBiology talking to @Joe_Woodman1999 about modelling epidemics! Listen below:
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
4 months
A real pleasure to speak at length with Frank Armstrong
@VoicesCassandra
CassandraVoices
4 months
In our latest podcast Sunetra Gupta recalls her role as the "anti-lockdown Professor" & explains her work on developing a universal influenza vaccine. She's still awaiting an apology from her opponents such as George Monbiot. Listen to the Full Pod on
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
It is indeed telling that they will not engage directly with me and the tone of their messages is quite shocking. I’m happy to discuss the issues directly with them as Twitter is not the best platform for it. I'll follow through with some points they will need to consider.
@GladiatrixRedux
Gladiatrix52
1 year
@whippletom @freddiesayers @DAaronovitch @GidMK @sunetragupta as this group of men hasn't had the courtesy to put their questions (and deeply sexist assertions) directly to you, I thought I would offer you the opportunity to respond.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
This does not do justice to this wonderful book but perhaps it is a sign that the LRB are starting to appreciate how consummately lockdowns disrespect left wing values
@toby00green
Toby Green
3 years
Tks John Lanchester for reviewing The Covid Consensus in @LRB . Only a 4-word review ("A bracing anti-lockdown polemic"). But 4 words is progress. It represents liberal media's acknowledgement of a valid anti-lockdown position which is hard to criticise
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Just for the record, I have no problem with mandates (I argued with the PHE about implementing a measles vaccine mandate which they rejected) as long as they are an enactment of the social contract. I would happily accept an age-specific mandate if it protected children
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
We should have listened to Prof Muliyil and other humble individuals like him who only wanted to reduce human suffering
@jasjiv
jasjiv
3 years
Prof Gupta stating what Muliyil said more than a year earlier; imagine if we’d treated this pandemic differently, w/ protection of the weak AND the wage earner:
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Thank you for your support and for your excellent contributions to the general debate
@equal_ibrium
Vital Resistance
3 years
Just donated to the good people at Collateral Global. If you are also concerned by both the impact and precedent of global lockdowns, please consider giving whatever amount you can. Learn about CG here: And consider donating here:
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Grammatical mistakes are such a good reason to retweet - With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD what I thinking of were the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD what I thinking of of the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those whose who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
@cjsnowdon I repeat: Models are wonderful conceptual tools, but should never be used to make predictions in the face of high uncertainty We need strategies - like Focused Protection - that are robust to uncertainty, rather than unreliable predictions.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
And even the Guardian were on board then -
@DrJBhattacharya
Jay Bhattacharya
1 year
@T_Brautigan We wrote the @gbdeclaration in october 2020 because we knew there would be a winter wave, and we pointed out lockdown harms in some detail in the interviews and debates that followed. We called for focused protection of vulnerable people, not 'let it rip'. If this was your
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Particularly as a close friend of 35 years…
@DrJBhattacharya
Jay Bhattacharya
2 years
Finally, I wonder what Woolhouse thinks of the behavior of top scientific bureaucrats, politicians, and the media smearing and deplatforming me, @MartinKulldorff , @SunetraGupta and so many others. Should we not have had this discussion without prejudice in 2020? 5/5
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD what I thinking of of the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those whose who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Just for the record, I have no problem with mandates (I argued with the PHE about implementing a measles vaccine mandate which they rejected) as long as they are an enactment of the social contract. I would happily accept an age-specific mandate if it protected children
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
6. The notion that lockdowns worked to stop spread of infection does not resist scrutiny at present although they may have offered focused protection.
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
5. The apparent “mildness’ of Omicron is most likely to due to most people having acquired immunity against severe disease by then due to exposure or vaccination and not an intrinsic property of the virus population itself.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
John Bird is one of my heroes - first came to know of him on Radio 3 speaking with eloquence and passion about how classical music transformed his life - underscoring how much we owe it to underprivileged children to give them an education in the Arts
@thelucyjohnston
lucy johnston
3 years
🚨 Lockdown will trigger homelessness tsunami 225,000 face eviction “We’re in the midst of a perfect storm - rising energy costs, universal credit cut, end of furlough, lockdown job losses... I am very very worried.” Watch the podcast with John Bird:
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Thank you, Molly - and keep up the good work!
@lensiseethrough
Molly Kingsley
2 years
@karamballes We were honoured that @SunetraGupta and @DrJBhattacharya contributed, along with many others, to The Children’s Inquiry. They are two of the most inspiring souls I’ve ever met. The abuse they faced, and its awful consequences, will be recalled as one of history’s great tragedies.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
4 months
@dobssi @KevinBardosh @RoxanneHoge @DrJBhattacharya @MartinKulldorff It’s a common misconception that rapid loss of infection blocking immunity is at odds with the establishment and maintenance of herd immunity
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
5. The apparent “mildness’ of Omicron is most likely to due to most people having acquired immunity against severe disease by then due to exposure or vaccination and not an intrinsic property of the virus population itself.
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
3. We were not in a position to evaluate the IFR in March 2020, although the skew in age was obvious - seroprevalence studies (which I put my money on – and, yes, I was wrong!) did not provide a clear indication of the level of exposure in a community
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
These are the points they will need to consider: 2. When I said that the epidemic was on its way out, I did not mean there wouldn’t be a second wave – why would I have risked so much to suggest a way of dealing with a resurgence if I thought it had just gone away?
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
1. To my mind, the only coherent explanation for the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in most global settings is that it played out as a classic coronavirus (SIRS with seasonality), with the first peak occurring in many regions before March 2020
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
4. Clearly more elderly and otherwise vulnerable people died than I expected in the UK and we should be asking why this happened but that does not mean the IFR is 0.9
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
3. We were not in a position to evaluate the IFR in March 2020, although the skew in age was obvious - seroprevalence studies (which I put my money on – and, yes, I was wrong!) did not provide a clear indication of the level of exposure in a community
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
11 months
@AllisonPearson @MartinKulldorff As did many others. Thank you for acknowledging this…
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
We are looking for an immunologist (highly motivated and independent, of course) to join our universal flu vaccine programme:
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Job Details
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
@LegoLas44941816 If it makes any difference at all, I cannot think of anyone whose tweets I look forward to reading more than yours. I’ve also found quite useful, in my darker moments, to remember that Rilke accused us of being wasters of sorrows.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
@TonyHinton2016 As you must know I have great respect for your opinions, but I would maintain that it is human dignity we hold onto - as Oedipus and the great tragedies affirm - rather than bodily autonomy
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
@TAH_Sci None of us has the full skill set to determine what strategy was optimal but it should have been clear from the outset that lockdowns would cause more harm than good.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Just to be clear, I am addressing Danny Altmann here @Daltmann10
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
So disappointing to have to battle this out in the media rather than through a phonecall, Danny, but here are some explainers on what herd immunity actually means and how it is independent of the rate of loss of immunity
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD, I thinking of of the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy
@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD what I thinking of of the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those whose who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Really looking forward to this -
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
@neorevolt Exactly
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
But, unlike me, for whom the Koch bothers have installed an energy inefficient swimming pool in my back gardens, Owen can sleep at night
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
5 years
Thanks, Petra!
@LSHTM_Vaccines
Vaccine Centre
5 years
In the first podcast in our series launched yesterday our own @petrakle speaks to @SunetraGupta in ‘Progress towards a universal flu vaccine: understanding the many 'hats' of the influenza virus’ #vaccineswork
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
4 months
There are also extremely sound epidemiological reasons why NPIs would have caused the transient disappearance of an endemic pathogen like influenza without having any material effect on the epidemic behaviour of SARS-CoV-2
@DrJBhattacharya
Jay Bhattacharya
4 months
@rdmorris @MIT @AlexBerenson @boriquagato Bob, my tweet made no claim about the inefficacy of lockdowns against the flu, covid or anything else. I didn't even say anything about the devastating harms of lockdowns on kids, in the poor and the working class. If you want to help study those harms, @SunetraGupta ,
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
So glad to see this go into 2nd ed - with the perfect subtitle
@toby00green
Toby Green
2 years
@battleforeurope and I excited to announce the coauthored 2nd edition of The Covid Consensus with new subtitle: The Global Assault on Democracy and the Poor -- a Critique from the Left: (p40) Tks as always @MikeDwyerMike
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
@CognitiveEmpat1 Very good point. The first consideration is if it is logical. The second - which is more delicate - is whether it is ethical. This is the framework within which to place our desire for individual liberty.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
3. We were not in a position to evaluate the IFR in March 2020, although the skew in age was obvious - seroprevalence studies (which I put my money on – and, yes, I was wrong!) did not provide a clear indication of the level of exposure in a community
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
Please watch
@toby00green
Toby Green
2 years
This is an important film by @kunalpurohit and Abeer Khan. These stories humanise this appalling tragedy.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
Thank you for reminding me how well this explainer goes with Here is the full link - And indeed the variants have not evolved to be more virulent - which is obviously the question that is actually being asked here.
@Marco_Piani
Marco Piani 𝕏
1 year
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
@KevinBardosh Retweeted!
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
4 years
@professor_dave This is consistent (as you must know) with the behaviour of any disease with a short period of infection
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
7 years
What a wonderful surprise - thank you so much @Womans_Place_UK
@Womans_Place_UK
Woman’s Place UK
7 years
Today’s inspiration @SunetraGupta - scientist, novelist, writer/broadcaster, Oxford Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology #BlackHistoryMonth
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
5 years
It’s been a wonderful journey together, Caroline ❤️
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
@LegoLas44941816 I think my time on Twitter is over but I will miss you. Feel free to stay in touch and we would love you to visit.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
'The type of person who makes the world work': remembering Anthony Smith | The Spectator
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
Please also watch their film:
@collateralglbl
Collateral Global Charity
1 year
"This film, by Kunal Purohit and Abeer Khan for Collateral Global, cuts to the heart of CG’s research agenda: understanding the enormity of the harms which lockdowns brought about among vulnerable populations in the Global South." The Children of Nowhere:
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
3 years
How absolutely wonderful
@AmitChaudhuri
Amit Chaudhuri
3 years
I did a home recording for the first time today - ‘purano sei diner katha’, Tagore’s lovely reimagining of ‘Auld Lang Syne’. I recorded it on my iPhone and it has no enhancements or edits. It’s an informal offering, and I apologise for glitches or lapses:
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
5 years
How we will miss you!
@Princeton
Princeton University
5 years
We are saddened to hear of the sudden passing of professor emeritus Henry Horn. Dan Rubenstein, director of the program in environmental studies, says of Horn, "He was the rock of the department and his absence is going to be very hard to accept."
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
Also read: Intrinsic and Effective Severity of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases Infected With the Ancestral Strain and Omicron BA.2 Variant in Hong Kong
@emboreports
EMBO Reports
1 year
Sunetra Gupta @SunetraGupta @OxfordBiology @UniofOxford on the #evolution of #virulence , on #pathogen spread and herd #immunity . #virus " … #Omicron had been hiding in the wings all along, waiting to make an entrance when the conditions were right."
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
2 years
@LegoLas44941816 Keep going - you are extraordinary
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
6 years
The credit here should go to Craig Thompson @craigpthomp for going beyond simply testing the predictions of our model to developing a pipeline for identifying antigenic targets for a universal influenza vaccine
@OxUInnovation
Oxford University Innovation
6 years
Why don't we yet have a universal flu vaccine and how can we fix that? Professor @SunetraGupta from @UniofOxford 's @OxZooDept writes in Nature about her latest research into influenza, which OUI is helping get into the wider world.
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@SunetraGupta
Sunetra Gupta
1 year
@whippletom @freddiesayers There is absolutely no reason to invoke lockdowns (voluntary or otherwise) to explain the patterns observed - a simple SIRS model with seasonality will faithfully reproduce them (Epi 101)
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