Raised on Chicago's South Side. Research on segregation, immigration, and elections is in Atlantic, 538, NYT, NPR,
@splitticket_
,
@sltrib
& Supreme Court cases.
NEW ARTICLE
@jssrjournal
by
@Michael_L_Wood
@SoelbergGrace
& me.
We build on work of Du Bois to analyze 5 types of responses of Black American LDS/Mormon people to profound contradictions of "twoness" navigating a quintessentially (white) American faith.
Results from the Utah US Senate Republican primary show moderate
@beckyforutah
exceeded polls, holding Mike Lee to 54% in Provo, 50% in Salt Lake County & just 26% in Salt Lake *City*
The strong anti-Lee/Trump vote is encouraging for
@EvanMcMullin
's bid to beat Lee in November
My mom got her PhD raising three boys. I was 15 when she graduated from University of Chicago and today she is the first woman to be Dean of Undergraduate Education at BYU. Her example paved the way for me to be a professor, too--the only mother-son combo at BYU. I ❤ my mom.👩🎓👨🎓
Women academic friends with children: I spoke to a prospective graduate student today who was told by a male professor in her department that if she wanted children, she might as well not even shoot for a PhD. Share your stories in this thread to prove he's wrong.
Update! NINE Provo precincts flipped blue, to
#BidenHarris2020
the only set of blue precincts in all of Utah county! (I doubted myself, but my prediction was right!) Thank you, esp.
@jennaforprovo
McMullin voters, independents, fellow Dems, & students for your integrity and vote!
NEW TODAY: Based on 2020 primary & 2016 general election results, at least seven Provo precincts—all surrounding BYU—are poised to vote for Biden/Harris this November, the first Democratic victory across as many Provo precincts in more than four decades:
I have heard the cries of Black students and been humbled...by the power of their truth. I have literally heard their cries. They have shed tears in my office, in class... I will never know the depth of their pain, but I will never stop fighting for them.
This is truly remarkable.
Homicides year-to-date are DOWN -13% across 90 big cities, -12% for top 10 U.S. cities since last year.
And WAY DOWN by -23% in NYC, L.A., HOU, Philly.
As
@Crimealytics
shows, this could become the largest yearly drop in over a generation (since 1996)
New from me: Murder is down 12% in over 90 US cities with available data so far in '23. I wrote in
@TheAtlantic
about how it could be indicative of one of the largest national drops in murder ever recorded happening this year & ideas on possible drivers.
As the election canvass is nearly over
@Thorongil16
& I can confirm:
✅McMullin did achieve the HIGH SUPPORT Dems (D +88), Ind. (I +23), and est. 27% of GOP voters (Lee +46, huge defection) needed.
❌Evan McMullin lost historic 2022 Utah Senate race 53-43 (!) due to LOW TURNOUT
“How are we modeling love and compassion,” Coyne asks, “when our top officials in Utah do something like this-taking a family that has gone through so much and call open season on them?”
The LDS prophet just gave “a whole talk on being a peacemaker.”
Evan McMullin crushed incumbent Mike Lee 59-37 (+19) in Salt Lake County, winning over 60% of the vote in the six cities:
Salt Lake (+63)
Millcreek (+44)
Holladay (+30)
Cottonwood Heights (+29)
Midvale (+28)
Murray (+26)
McMullin barely lost West Jordan, 47-49, by 620 votes.
The day after the 2016 election was the most difficult day to teach.
I mourned with students of color who had family who had been deported, who had been abused by police. They cried, afraid.
Several white students didn't get it.
In 2020, most get it:
NEW TODAY: Based on 2020 primary & 2016 general election results, at least seven Provo precincts—all surrounding BYU—are poised to vote for Biden/Harris this November, the first Democratic victory across as many Provo precincts in more than four decades:
I matched all Utah zip codes w/ available data on fully vaccinated rate (age 12+, Aug 2, 2021) to the Biden 2020 % vote in 2020.
This is difficult to do (crosswalk to census block group, then another to precinct id). My current home zip 84604 above trend line but can do better!
The 2020-2022 vote swung away from Republicans most in Utah.
Independent, Dem-backed candidate Evan McMullin cut Biden's 20.5-pt loss (best Dem pres vote share, 37%, since 1964) to only 10.4 pts, losing 55.15-43.74 to do-nothing, election-denier MAGA Republican Senator Mike Lee.
@nhannahjones
Correct. And racial segregation paved the way for predatory subprime lending that devastated the Black middle class in Baltimore and across urban and suburban America.
I mourn the mass murder of LGBTQ people in Colorado and send my love to all my LGBTQ students, family, and colleagues everywhere.
I am saddened to learn the shooter was a member of my LDS faith community.
From 2000 to 2020, Utah has had the 4th biggest shift LEFT in the presidential election margin of any US state.
VT: D +25
CO: D +22
AK: D +21
UT: D +20
VA: D +18
Biden received the highest vote share (38%) of any Dem candidate since LBJ won Utah in 1964.
While we await final 2023 Utah election results, here is a fun map that shows the 2000-2020 shift in the presidential election margin with each UT county matched to a U.S. state:
✅By margin shift order
✅3 blue counties=3 blue states in 2020
✅26 red counties=25 red states
1/
We're voting for
@EvanMcMullin
for US Senate because he puts country over party. He will work 14 hours a day to represent all Utahns- Independents, Republicans, and Democrats- and will defend our constitution and democracy rather than seek to overturn free and fair elections. 🗳
In November, we have a chance to unseat one of the most anti-democracy senators in Washington:
@SenMikeLee
. Thank you to families across Utah, like the Rugh family, for coming together to protect our republic and our nation’s founding ideals. Proud to have you on
#TeamEvan
.
Evan McMullin cruised to victory over incumbent Senator Mike Lee in Park City, Utah 71-25 (+46).
Impressively, McMullin even improved on Biden's 2020 70-26 margin (+44).
❄️Home to the "greatest snow on earth," Park City also has some of the most pro-democracy voters in Utah. 🇺🇸
Ogden, Utah's 8th most populous city, swung 25 pts against Trump (2012-2020) and +30 against his reliable MAGA Republican foot soldier Mike Lee (2012-2022).
2012: Romney 57-Obama 39 (R +18)
2020: Biden 52-Trump 44 (D +8)
2022: McMullin 53-Lee 40 (I +13)
Big change past decade:
Yesterday, I was granted tenure and promotion to the rank of associate professor!
Thanks to ALL who paved the way for me and shined a light towards a better future. When it comes to racial integration & justice, I'm just getting started. More highlights, shout-outs to follow...
Provo, Utah has swung +52 pts MORE DEMOCRATIC since 2004, the last time a Rep pres. (Bush) ran for reelection:
2004: Bush 82-Kerry 12 (R +70)
2020: Trump 55-Biden 37 (R +18)
Swing = +52 D
Provo swung most in Utah County, which has shifted +33 pts more Dem since 2004
#utpol
WA primary results from Tuesday are some of the best tea leaves for Dems we've seen all year.
Dems in 2022 primary combined for 49.6% in
#WA08
. The count this year isn't over yet, but Dems combine for 55% right now.
(Biden won 52/45 here in 2020.)
Independent challenger
@EvanMcMullin
beat MAGA Republican incumbent Senator Mike Lee 48.3-47.6 in tri-county Utah Wasatch Front Metro.
🟠Davis: Lee 54-43 (R +11)
🔵Salt Lake: McM 57-19 (I +19)
🔴Utah Co.: Lee 62-35 (R +27)
🟣TOTAL: McM 48.3-47.6 (I +0.7)
(FYI, statewide: R +10)
Question: How can I support Black students at
@BYU
?
Answer: Attend Perspectives this Friday at 7pm in the Wilk WSC Ballroom
>1,000 attended last year's annual event of music, dance, poetry, and spoken word planned by Black students with collaboration from other students of color.
Wow, the Utah gerrymander is incredibly extreme at R +29 and is a violation of the will of voters who voted for an independent commission in 2018. Outrageous. Less competitive elections will depress turnout and weaken civic engagement. Just terrible all around.
Incredibly proud of my colleague, Dr. Ryan Gabriel, and his master class
#BYUDevo
address on how to confront, understand, & dismantle systemic racism--and how we heal.
It had been 14 years since a Black faculty member gave this address.
May we hear BYU BIPOC voices more often.
"To pretend that race is unimportant by saying 'I don’t see race' or to falsely diminish the impacts of racism on the lives of Heavenly Father’s children does nothing to stop racism."
#BYUDevo
#BYUSpeeches
In the Salt Lake County-wide race, Democrat Suzanne
@VoteSuz
Harrison defeated incumbent Republican Richard Snelgrove, 55%-45%.
Her campaign supercharged turnout to 69% in her hometown of Sandy, tripling Biden's margin (D +2 -> D +6), netting her the 2nd most votes after SLC.
@ProfMMurray
What jumped out on the page was "all blacks," a construction his colleague SC KBJ never used or implied, since her arguments are always rooted in law and history, using specific populations like the freedmen, etc. It showed how he projected his view onto hers in a major slip.
<Thread as promised>
As an infant in 1978, my parents moved with me to Chicago's South Side. For the next 16 yrs, I would be taught, led, & shaped by Black women.
More Black women still guide my life tremendously.
This is dedicated to them and the next generation of Black women
We will never forget
#January6th
We will never forget the chant, "Hang Mike Pence."
We will never forget how they threatened to murder Nancy Pelosi and "drag her out with her head banging down the steps."
We will never forget how they injured 140 officers.
#NeverForgetJanuary6th
📈UTAH Democratic party voter registration is up eight-fold since July 21st vs. prior 2024 YTD weekly avg.
👀+1074 vs. +135
🔵DEM share of new voter chg. was 31% last week or more than double the 14% share of Utah active voters
🗓️Will update again Monday: Expect trend to continue
Trump failed to win support from a majority of Utah voters in 2016 and Joe Biden performed better with Utah voters in 2020 than any Democrat since 1964.
Times they are changing...
Vote
@EvanMcMullin
for US Senate
On Tuesday, Nov. 21st, voters will choose Kathleen Riebe (D) or Celeste Maloy (R) in the special election in left-trending Utah CD2
3X MAPS by county + precinct inset BONUS
2012 Pres R +40
2020 Pres R +14
2022 Senate R +10
2022 CD2 R +26
2023 CD2 Special R +??
1/4
Biggest 2020-2024 shifts LEFT: Alaska, Colorado, Texas, Utah
For illustration purposes, TABLE BELOW shows 2020-24 shifts that are ~1/2 that of 2016-20.
VERY likely that AK, CO, TX, UT shift left more than that.
(2016 margin is 2-party share, source: Rugh 2023)
If electoral trends stay constant, I would say Utah shifts the most towards Biden in 24’ but
@purrtah
&
@JakeRugh
would be the best experts on that estimate.
For Trump, I would say Florida because I don’t see the Biden campaign making a serious play for that state
I stand in solidarity with Sarah Coyne, who has inspired so many BYU students to go forth to serve.
And I echo her call to treat all with compassion and understanding, even those who criticize her.
God bless Dr. Coyne, a friend, mentor, and role model.
Birthday greetings 🎂 to
@JMilesColeman
from Provo (+52 D)-city that swung left the most (up to +83 D precinct swings)-in county (Utah +33 D), state (UT +26 D), and region (West) that shifted left the most since 2004, last time R pres up for re-election, when Mr. Coleman was 12.
Did you know
@EvanMcMullin
has endorsed
@JoeBiden
for president? Come hear him and a great lineup of panelists incl.
@RosemaryCard
speak on how their faith guides their choices this election.
Friday Oct 16 at 7pm MT/6pm PT
Hat tip
@LDS4BidenHarris
Yes, this. If any of my students are reading this, know that you don't need to justify any reason for asking an extension beyond telling me this has been a difficult time. Just as earlier this semester, you know I am prepared to accommodate your needs, no questions asked.
BYU Professors, please be especially mindful of your LGBTQ+ students— & understand you may not know all of the ones you do have in your classes
Please be forgiving & lenient re: late assignments & deadline extensions
This has been a rough time for many students & allies
Brigham Young University sociology professor Jacob Rugh doesn’t “see the GOP making inroads with voters under age 35 as long as Trump or Trumpism as embodied by more extreme candidates rules the party in the public consciousness.”
@KUER
1/
And Salt Lake Co. SUPER encouraging bc recall McMullin needed to hold Lee under 40 % in the Purple Wave upset scenario by
@Thorongil16
& me
@SplitTicket_
-and Lee is at 37%.
This is genuinely good news for McMullin. Great starting point.
This race is too close to call IMHO...
Trump: You have to get out and vote. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four years, it will be fixed, it will be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore.. In four years, you won’t have to vote again.
"The people who blame 'wokeness' for the collapse of a bank do not want you to understand or even think about the political economy of banking in the United States. They want to deflect your attention away from the real questions and...
-
@jbouie
1/2
Of 5 amazing Black women I've mentored as students, TAs, RAs, Honors grads, coauthors, incl.
@tineshacapri
, 3 of 5 took a year out after graduation to recover from facing racism, institutional & interpersonal.
Support Black women. Don't ask them to do it all. They're exhausted.
You deserve a governor who won’t leave you wondering if today’s the day he’ll have the political courage to do what’s right, or if he’ll continue pandering to outside pressure, special interests, donors, and extremists in his party.
If you’re looking for something different,
In 2022, Independent US Senate candidate Evan McMullin edged out incumbent Senator Mike Lee in highly educated suburban Bountiful, Utah, by 185 votes or 1 percent of votes cast (I +1), a 16-point swing from the 2020 presidential election result (R +15).
“Lower home ownership depresses voter turnout and homeownership for Black Americans has been declining for the past 15 years. Clearly this year is going to be a very high turnout election, but having said that, Black Americans will still be uniquely disadvantaged.” (SHORT THREAD)
Research from BYU sociology professor
@JakeRugh
finds Black homeownership has fallen to the lowest level since the 1968 Fair Housing Act: 41%. According to his analysis, these findings indicate a potential negative impact on Black voter turnout in 2020.
Per final results, moderate candidates Becky Edwards & Ally Isom held incumbent Utah US Senator Mike Lee to 59% of the vote in metro Davis/Salt Lake/Utah counties, where 2 in 3 Utahns live.
Lee lost SLC and adjacent cities, and came under 50% in Bountiful and under 55% in Provo.
Utah voters are going to be majority-Republican for a long time to come, but they are increasingly anti-MAGA. This is about more than just Trump. It's also about Jan. 6 and the future of our constitutional democratic republic.
H/t
@workinkat
@KSLcom
UTAH MAP: TRUMP 57 - HALEY 42 (+15)
Nikki Haley poised to win
Salt Lake (no surprise)
Davis (more surprising)
Haley trails by just 8 pts in Cache (Logan/Utah St. Univ.) and Utah (BYU/UVU/Silicon Slopes).
Utah college-educated / GOP of yesteryear keep showing up to reject Trump.
Haley is edging out Trump in the tri-county Salt Lake, Davis, & Utah Wasatch Front by 21 VOTES:
Haley 22,270-Trump 22,249
49.5%-49.4% (H +0.1)
60% of UT GOP caucus votes cast in these 3 counties
86% reporting
Elsewhere:
Haley 9,130-Trump 20,385
30.7%-68.5% (T +38)
85% reporting
I just helped three students from AR, PA, and WY vote in Utah for the first time!
And I helped my neighbor register, and he went and voted, too!
If you live in Utah or one of 14 states you can still register and vote TODAY!
Don't let the rain 🌧 stop you!
#Vote
🗳 ✅️
Black home ownership has fallen to the lowest level since the 1968 Fair Housing Act: 41% in 2019. Black Americans stand out as the only group to not recover from the housing crisis. Neither education, income, nor credit explain this Black/non-Black divide.
Bountiful, Utah epitomizes the growing anti-Trump rejection of MAGA Republicans like Mike Lee among highly educated white voters.
Bountiful is 48% college-educated, 89% white, & mostly LDS.
The city voted 49-48 for Evan McMullin, a swing of over 16 pts left/center since 2020.
Breaking results (precinct data finally available!):
Bountiful city (Davis County, UT) FLIPPED purple in 2022, swinging +16.4 pts since 2020:
2020
Trump 54.1 - Biden 38.7 (R +15.4)
2022
McMullin 49.2 - Lee 48.2 (I +1.0)
2020-2022 Swing: I + 16.4
Wow. Map to come Monday.
UPDATED
#UTSEN
RESULTS‼️
Provo City
Lee 50.7 - McMullin 45.6 (R +5)
State of Utah
Lee 53.2 - McMullin 42.7 (R +10.5)
FYI: 2016 US Senate
Provo: Lee 77-17 (R +60)
Utah: Lee 68-27 (R +41)
2016-2022 CHANGE
PROVO: R +60 ➡️ R +5 (-55) 👀
UTAH: R +41 ➡️ R +11 (-40)
MAPS TO COME!
"By 1913, 6 of 26 BYU faculty were women...These early faculty helped build the institution & set its trajectory, though their contributions to BYU are often lost in the institutional canon." -
@byu_history
Prof. Amy Harris
Hat tip to
@Thorongil16
@lxeagle17
@SplitTicket_
for collaborating on our exploration of the Senate race in Utah.
The Lee-McMullin contest is the most competitive Utah Senate race in my lifetime.
A McMullin upset is unlikely, but we show 1 scenario (of 3) how it could happen.
New from me for
@SplitTicket_
, featuring prof.
@JakeRugh
and
@lxeagle17
:
Does Evan McMullin have a chance to actually win
#UTSen
?
In short - due to Mike Lee's weaknesses, changing GOP coalitions, and lingering Trumpism effects, yes, he does.
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Assoc. Dean Carolina Núñez and Prof. Kif Augustine-Adams at BYU J. Reuben Clark Law School have led the Refugee and Immigration Initiative since 2016. Students travel to Dilley, Texas, to assist women & children seeking asylum in the US... & 1/4 of students change career paths.
A group of
@BYULawSchool
students travel to a detention center in Texas twice a year to help women seeking asylum prepare for credible fear interviews.
The core idea behind the DREAM Act — that undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as children should be allowed to stay and earn a path to citizenship — has enjoyed remarkably high levels of public support, ranging from 67% to 74%.
My pleasure a few hours ago to congratulate
@TineshaCapri
on successfully defending her insightful, original honors thesis on identity formation among biracial Black women in NYC in age of
#BlackLivesMatter
sure to shake up the future field of sociology of
#race
cc:
@JLeeSoc
Yep. Periodic reminder that McMullin beat Trump 41-39 in Provo in 2016. This purple area was also the only state legislative district in the USA that voted for McMullin (Utah GOP has since gerrymandered it btw).
BREAKING: U.S. Senate votes 61-36 to codify federal protections for same sex and interracial marriages.
The bill moves to the House, where it is expected to be passed and then signed into law by President Biden.
BYU Invited Forum Speakers
By Gender, Race/Ethnicity
Pre- vs. Post-April 2020
2010-Mar 2020 (n=52)
81% MEN
73% white
8% non-white
19% WOMEN
15% white
4% non-white
Since April 2020 (n=21)
48% MEN
33% white
15% non-white
52% WOMEN
33% white
19% non-white
Ok Provo results the best news so far for McMullin as he is winning the most precincts with up to 67% of vote.
My bellwether/tossup precinct PR319, which includes BYU housing, 54%-43%.
@Thorongil16
& I knew McMullin would over-perform in Provo and he is. Screenshot here for now
"Today, given what we have experienced over the past four years, it is not enough to just to register our disapproval of the President. We need to elect someone else in his place, someone who will stop the chaos and reverse the damage." -Former US Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) 1/
Grateful to see Romney, one of my senators, here. 🇺🇦
Sadly, I am not surprised to see my other senator missing from this list. We will vote him out in 2028.
This is absolutely the right take! A victory for democracy and the future even if
@EvanMcMullin
could not pull off the upset. We fought the good fight. Tons of new voters registered or joined the pro-democracy movement. The future is bright in Utah. We are patient and determined!
As far as I’m concerned, McMullin won simply by making this a competitive race, period. This will be the start of a new era in Utah politics. I am so excited. Politics is a marathon, not a sprint. I’m excited for Utah going forward.
@KeneAkers
LDS people on record against racist bans pre-1978:
Orson Pratt
Hugh B. Brown
Lester Bush
Lowry Nelson
George Romney
Sterling McMurrin
Eugene England
Margarito Bautista
Tom Rugh
Darius Gray*
Robert Stevenson*
Lucille Bankhead*
Wynetta Martin*
Hattie Soil*
*Black LDS pioneers
@mcadams_at_rice
My mom got her PhD raising three boys. I was 15 when she graduated from University of Chicago and today she is the first woman to be Dean of Undergraduate Education at BYU. Her example paved the way for me to be a professor, too--the only mother-son combo at BYU. I ❤ my mom.
"Latter-day Saints for Harris-Walz is 'a big tent made up of Republicans, independents, and Democrats' who see Harris 'as a breath of fresh air.'"
True!
#LDSForHarrisWalz
#azpol
#nvpol
Here are my top 10 favorite Utah & US election maps I made in 2022, in roughly chronological order.
1) Purple Provo, pt 1: BYU area
2) Purpling Wasatch Front (R +9)
3) Utah vote swing, 2012-2020
4) USA County flips, 2004-2020: West is best
NEW
#ElectionResults2020
Maps!
Salt Lake County, Utah (pop. 1.2M)
Biden 53-Trump 42
SLCo. 2016-2020 swing = +4.4 Dem
Did you know? Salt Lake Co. has been blue in 3 of last 4 elections-2008, 2016, & 2020
Full size maps by Jacob S. Rugh:
Time to vote out Mike Lee, reliable MAGA foot soldier, who spent "14 hours a day" trying to help Trump unravel and overturn the 2020 election.
Vote for democracy.
Vote for
@EvanMcMullin
#TeamEvan
#utdebates
#UTSenateDebate
.
@MikeLeeforUtah
betrayed his oath to the Constitution.
RT if you think it’s time Utah defends American democracy and replaces Senator Lee in Washington.
#UTSenDebate
This is a big indicator of change, progress in the LDS faith. I think I know who this stake president is and I've had some wonderful conversations with him about how we can be intentional and inspired about bringing about racial equality.
And being on the right side of history.
Excellent
@pbsnewshour
segment feat.
#SeditionHunters
book author
@ryanjreilly
Over 3,000 people broke federal laws in the
#January6th
attack, but only 1,238 have been charged 3 years later, with just 2 years left before statute of limitations expires.
❄️In honor of a first snow storm of the season along the Utah Wasatch Front metro region, home to the greatest snow on earth, here is a map of the 2020 election in Park City
🔵Biden's crushed Trump 71% - 27% (D +44).
📈Perhaps more impressive, registered voter turnout was 92%.
Provo, Utah has swung +52 pts MORE DEMOCRATIC since 2004, the last time a Rep pres. (Bush) ran for reelection:
2004: Bush 82-Kerry 12 (R +70)
2020: Trump 55-Biden 37 (R +18)
Swing = +52 D
Many more maps here--please use and share!
The dream of undocumented and documented Dreamers who go to school, work hard, and pledge allegiance to the flag has become an American nightmare. This is not equal opportunity... It is morally unacceptable.
-
@thelegendofnori
& me 🦋🦋 via
@DeseretNews