Chasing storms and northern lights on the sunny side of the Alps. Meteors, meteor showers & meteorites. Active tectonics and earthquake hazard. Views my own.
Does it happen to you? Sometimes I feel like I get caught up in measures, comparisons, and technicalities, nearly missing what is really important. G4, G5 - whatever. The privilege of witnessing the stuff of dreams, the splashing luminescence of our shore of the cosmic ocean.
Preliminary orbit on newly discovered
#comet
with the temporary designation HN00003 indicates it could potentially become a fairly bright object in September. First orbit indicates perihelion at ~0.2 a.u. on Sept 18th, currently at around 10th magnitude. Fingers crossed!
#SolarCycle25
: if everything goes 'right', the period May 10-14th may become the most geomagnetically active interval since 7-10 Nov 2004. Unless everything goes wrong, there should be lots of mid-latitude aurora this weekend.
#solarmax
#SolarCycle25
: sunspot group 13691 (former 13663) has grown again and developed over the past 4 days. It has a complex magnetic field and is capable of producing major solar flares. It will be facing the Earth directly in about 2 days.
#solarmax
The ongoing geomagnetic storm has reintensified and is now again as strong as during the peak over North America. This is going to be loooooong 6 hours until darkness in Europe... Who else is biting their nails? ;)
#Aurora
: rapid rise in ACE EPAM proton levels, the CME is only hours away. We'll likely see an even sharper final rise once the CME impact (at L1 point) is imminent. Then we'll have about ~30-40 minutes lead time before it hits the Earth. More soon!
#NorthernLights
It is official, this is a G4 storm! Kp=8 reacjed in the past 3 hours. Also, with a preliminary DSTmin=-184 nT, this is the *third* strongest geomagnetic storm of Cycle 25, after 10 May 2024 and 23 April 2023!
#aurora
#SolarCycle25
: the rapid development of sunspot group 13712 is quite spectacular as the group gains area and complexity. There are multiple small magnetic deltas in the group, expecting M-class flares. If the growth continues, X-class flares may become likely soon.
#solarmax
#Aurora
: insanity in the sky over Slovenia. 3/4 of the sky covered, partial corona, casting shadows, brilliant colors!!!! As good as 30 Oct 2003 and 20 Nov 2003!!
@TamithaSkov
#Aurora
: this is quite exceptional - 4 CMEs en route, first 3 impacts late tomorrow / early Saturday (UTC), followed by the fourth Saturday afternoon. Insane CME barrage. Europe will likely begin the show, with North America getting the 2nd and 3rd impact, then Europe the 4th.
#Aurora
: BOOM! Big M9.9 (almost X) class flare directed nearly squarely at the Earth. A full-halo CME nearly certain, so this event is the first in quite a while that has significant potential to generate a major geomagnetic storm. More on this event soon!
Oh yeah, I love bolts from the blue on fully developed Cb incus! Distant storms over southeast
#Slovenia
, observing from a local hilltop.
#lightning
@StormHour
#Lightning
: upward streamers! Quite hard to catch well, you need a fairly close lightning strike. But so exciting to see them when they do appear on photos! These two lightning bolts hit within 700-800 m.
@StormHour
Finally, a decent lightning storm! A fine show over Izola,
#Slovenia
around 3 am this morning - this was the best bolt: a powerful -48 kA blast that produced loud thunder sounding like cannon fire. 1.7 km away. Also nearly blown (f/10, ISO100).
@StormHour
@xWxClub
@ThePhotoHour
#SolarCycle25
: complex sunspot group 13784 is rotating towards the Earth. Note the rapid development in the south part of the group towards the end of the video. Several magnetic deltas in the group. We may see a major Earth-directed flare from this one soon.
Insane multi-level shelf cloud on the severe squall line in
#Hungary
this morning! The system produced a lot of straight line severe wind damage in
#Slovenia
earlier. Image:
@idokep
/ Schmall Rafael
A few more views of yesterday's severe isolated
#supercell
in north-central
#Slovenia
. I usually get much closer than this, but what a great distant view this was! Up to egg sized (5 cm)
#hail
from this storm.
@StormHour
If anyone is thinking about going to bed during the current lull in activity - don't. Just don't. We ain't seen nothing yet.
#aurora
#Auroraborealis
#north
Huge amounts of Saharan dust are advecting across the Mediterranean into central Europe this morning! Check out this satellite view, with the Apennine peninsula and the Adriatic sea absolutely shrouded in Saharan dust! The sky here in Ljubljana is very dusty right now.
#Aurora
over central Slovenia (Orla Vas) in the evening of 19 April. A beautiful, moonlit crimson display with dynamic rays visible also with the naked eye. The show lasted about 30 min. Compared to North America, this is as far S as N Florida.
#northernlights
@ThePhotoHour
This is beginning to look almost too good to be true. If this pans out, Europe gets the big show. And with these Kp values, it would be big. Fingers crossed, but keeping it real - let's wait and see. Other models show a somewhat later arrival, better for North America.
#aurora
What is the range of possible outcomes looking like? Well, according to NASA, periods of G4 or greater storming are quite likely tomorrow afternoon and night.
#SolarCycle25
: sunspot group 13780 is getting pretty big and complex. It has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, it produced an X1.1 flare yesterday (with a possibly Earth-directed CME) and may well produce further major flares.
We are again at G5 storm level!! 7h until darkness here. Fingers crossed. I think we are in for another night of bright aurora, maybe not as big as the last. Or maybe ...
#aurora
#severnisij
#NorthernLights
Thunderstorm & a brutal downpour over Trieste, Italy last Tuesday morning. Yes, there is an entire city in there! And a port.
@StormHour
@xWxClub
@ThePhotoHour
#OTD
(more or less): 3 years ago - one of the finest comets in a couple of decades & my personal
#4
finest comet I've ever seen (since 1994), C/2020 F3 (NEOWISE) began gracing the morning skies. Beautiful, classic
#comet
, just a magnitude shy of being a Great Comet.
@ThePhotoHour
Seriously!? X8.7 flare from sunspot group 13664, now behind the limb. This is the largest solar flare of Cycle 25 so far. So why not a week earlier? Or 3 weeks later? Anyway, any associated CME will completely miss the Earth.
#solarmax
#Aurora
: robust conditions continue as Europe approaches midday, with a strongly negative Bz and high solar wind density. Speed is still 450-500 km/s. Expecting G2 storm levels to persist for the time being. ~9h to go until darkness in Europe. Fingers crossed.
#Aurora
: another interesting feature in Nov 5th aurora is what appears to be the Earth's shadow splitting the display? This was quite striking also visually. Beautiful bluish nitrogen aurora above the oxygen reds!
@StormHour
@ThePhotoHour
@TamithaSkov
@theauroraguy
#SolarCycle25
: the closer to the central meridian it gets, the more impressive sunspot group 13712 becomes. It has produced an M1.3 today and it is crackling with C-class flares. There are several magnetic deltas in the group and there is potential for a major flare.
#solarmax
Crawler
#lightning
fills the sky over southern Istria, Croatia as storms fire over the N Adriatic sea and spread their anvils towards the coast. Great early morning action with some hair raising moments! Peroj, Istria, Croatia. Sept 4th, 2022.
@StormHour
@xWxClub
@ThePhotoHour
#Aurora
: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center nudges the aurora watch for Saturday up to G4 level! That's low mid-latitude aurora; down to northern Mediterranean in Europe, southern US.
#solarmax
Finally downloading my photos and my jaw is on the table - I mean I was there, I saw this, I took the photos, but it's almost unbelievable that this happened. What an event! Fingers crossed for more soon. And yes, these are cheesy screen shots made with my phone (obviously) :)
#Aurora
: geomagnetic superstorms are typically defined as storms with minimim DST index <-250 nT. Until 10 May 2024 we had not had a superstorm since 10 Nov 2004, almost 20 years. In 2000-2004 period we had 10 superstorms. Fingers crossed for more in the next few years!
#solarmax
(1/2)
#Aurora
: questions for aurora enthusiasts/scientists, re: geometry of rays near the peak of the 10 May storm. This is about 1h before dawn. Why are the longest rays curved? This isn't optics, it was obvious with the naked eye. Rays long enough to see field line curvature?
Update: while not quite as favourable as before, conditions are good for mid latitude aurora across Europe. While there are no guarantees, chances that many parts of Europe will see aurora tonight are high. Good luck, see you under the stars!
#SolarCycle25
: sunspot group 13664 is looking absolutely monstrous today! Enormous, more than 20x the width of the Earth, and magnetically complex. This is the largest sunspot group of Cycle 25 so far. Expecting further major flares!
#solarmax
#Aurora
: missed the show last night? There is another CME en route, expected to arrive some time tonight (12 August) or early tomorrow (13 August). All bets are off. Another chance for aurora +
#Perseid
meteors. See you under the stars!
#Aurora
: heads up Europe, conditions are now favourable for mid-latitude aurora across the continent. If favourable conditions persist (they wil for at least another hour) until dusk, aurora *may* be visible from your location. The waxing gibbous Moon will interfere.
Big bolt from the blue, arcing through clear air and hitting the ground at least ~10 km from the storm. Surprise for anyone in the vicinity! Bolts from the blue have been recorded to reach at least up to ~70 km from the thunderstorm.
#lightning
@StormHour
@xWxClub
@ThePhotoHour
#Comets
: 2024 may be a very good year for comets! 12P/Pons-Brooks may become a naked eye object in April and C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) may become very bright in September. It certaintly has the potential to surpass comet NEOWISE in 2020 (or to fizzle ...).
@ThePhotoHour
#Aurora
: UPDATE. We are riding the tail end of the CME that produced last night's G5 storm. Activity is slowly subsiding, expecting lower-end (~G2) storm levels activity in the next few hours. Awaiting the next CME (it has possibly already arrived, more soon). It's not over yet.
Time to reshare aurora shots. I haven’t seen much since 2023. Lots of shows in 2024 have been during NA daytime or randomly at 4:50AM while asleep.
QRT your favorite aurora pics. Lets get a train going ✨✨
#Aurora
: beautiful aurora visible from the Alps of central Austria right now - activity has been ongoing for some 40 minutes now. 3 webcam shots, with last night's brightest part, just for perspective.
#NorthernLights
#Meteors
: the
#Perseid
meteor shower peak is approaching! Every morning there are more Perseids to be seen, ramping up to peak activity on August 12th. What is the brightes Perseid you have seen? Photographed? This is my best, August 12th, 2010, a -10 magnitude beauty!
#SolarCycle25
: old sunspot group 13654 returns after two weeks on the far side of the Sun and announces its arrival with an X2.9 flare. There are some big sunspots in the group, we will soon see how much more flare potential there is. Fingers crossed.
#solarmax
Distant convective mushrooms ... Warm summer night, sitting in the grass, crickets chirping and a spectacular light show. What's not to like?
#lightning
@StormHour
#SolarCycle25
: BOOOM! Sunspot group 13664 = 13697 = 13723 rotates into view for the third time and *immediately* blows an M9.3 flare! Hopefully there is more in store for later next week as the group rotates into Earth-directed position. Wouldn't mind another geomagnetic storm!
#SolarCycle25
: rapid development of sunspot group 13712 over the past 48 hours. We may see M-class flares from the group soon if it continues developing. The group in the upper left, 13713, already produced an M3.2 flare today.
#solarmax
Hier soir un complexe orageux très actif a traversé le nord est de l'Italie en direction de la Slovénie. Ces orages ont décoché de beaux spécimens de farfadets (red sprites) dans le ciel de
#Nice
, entre 22h et minuit.
#CotedAzurFrance
#orages
@KeraunosObs
#Aurora
: Top 5 geomagnetic storms of Solar Cycle 25 so far! Which ones did you see? The 23 April 2023 came within about 20% of becoming a superstorm. Fingers crossed this Top 5 gets updated a lot in the coming months and years as we go through
#solarmax
.
The amazing persistent active pattern continues... 5000+ J/kg MLCAPE (!!!) and 50-60 kt DLS (!!!) on Mon/Tue along the N Adriatic coast, including here in Lignano. Insane!
BOOM! ***** that spot in particular! Small thunderstorm, big Bolt from the blue! Central
#Slovenia
. Bolts from the blue can reach up to 40-50 km out from the thunderstorm!
#lightning
@StormHour
BOOM! Here we go! Group 13784 is blasting another long duration flare - still climbing and approaching X-class threshold. Now near M9. How high will it go? Any CME will be directed squarely at us - as good as it gets.
Something different. Keep an eye on
#comet
C/2021 A1 (Leonard): it may become a pretty nice sight in December. Could peak nearly as bright as NEOWISE did last year (in photo), probably looking quite different. No guarantees, though.
#astronomy
#astro
@ThePhotoHour
@StormHour
#Aurora
: a bit more on superstorms - near misses. On 23 July 2012 a large & extremely fast CME launched away from the Earth, towards the Stereo A observatory. The CME would have caused on Earth a superstorm with DSTmin up to ~-1200 nT - 3x as powerful as the 10 May superstorm!
#SolarCycle25
: comparison between the sunspot group 13664 2 days before it rotated out of view (12 May) and now 1 day after rotating into view (as 13697). It's shrunk a lot, has that old, evolved look. But it still has a complex magnetic field and a potential for major flares.