Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher Twitter profile

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Skanda Amarnath

8 months

It shouldn't require financial or labor market deterioration for the Fed to start normalizing interest rates. From @PrestonMui & yours truly: Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024

Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024

What steps should the Fed take to preserve the hard-earned recovery in the labor market? We present a path for the Fed in 2024.

www.employamerica.org

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Last Seen Profiles

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@peytonoleary6

Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

*MNUCHIN TO PLACE $455 BLN UNSPENT CARES MONEY IN GENERAL FUND ... *TREASURY NEEDS CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL TO USE GENERAL-FUND MONEY Transferring to the general fund before Jan 1, 2026 would be in violation of the CARES Act

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Hard to pick out the funniest thing in this exchange.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

6 months

If you see some wearing a Vision Pro, thank them for all that they do…

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Wikipedia was already one of the most underrated human triumphs of the past 20yrs and the chaos of this website in the last year should make us even more appreciative of how well Wikipedia functions, all things considered

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Might be the healthiest aspect of French democracy. Admirable that Melenchon voters are still willing to acknowledge real tradeoffs even tho they can’t choose their ideal candidate, and nevertheless show up to vote. For democracy to sustain, need enough people to not be petty

Mac

@GoodPoliticGuy

2 years

healthy democracy

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

This guy is a straight con. Engaged in deceiving his audience in the worst ways possible. As if the world wasn’t aware that fixed income products have interest rate risk? Gmafb

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

Hyping up vaccines, now trashing crypto. Lmao

Blockworks

@Blockworks_

3 years

DONALD TRUMP: Crypto is very dangerous. It could be an explosion like we have never seen before

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Can we put to rest the notion that it was Pandemic Unemployment Assistance that was causing workers to quit? These businesses want to scapegoat the govt for the fact that they can’t/won’t compete with those that are providing better employment opportunities right now

Lindsay Owens

@owenslindsay1

2 years

"Multiple employees at an Applebee's in Lawrence, Kansas, quit over the email, and the location was closed briefly Tuesday amid a walkout." Jake Holcomb, a manger who quit, distributed copies of the email to employees & posted it online. @businessinsider

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Try to make tax collection less efficient for the sake of addressing the national debt. The insincerity of this entire enterprise should be plainly obvious

Jeff Stein

@JStein_WaPo

1 year

2 potential developments here via the AP that I think could go a long way to helping a deal get made. Makes sense the WH would be willing to pare back a little of the $80B for the IRS last year if it can protect programs like nutrition & rental aid, and gives McCarthy another W

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Derek: prove to me you’re not a try-hard loser [Proceeds to demonstrate he is an even bigger try-hard loser]

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Gas tax holiday a clear sign of intellectual bankruptcy. If you’re willing to inefficiently subsidize fossil fuel production through the backdoor (demand), you should be willing to efficiently subsidize production through the frontdoor while leaving room for consumption to adjust

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

"My humble suggestion is that every staffer going in [to the White House] gets a tattoo that says 'Deficits Don't Matter'...It's just the price of entry, just go in there, do whatever you gotta do, but deficits don't matter." - @chrislhayes

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

No time like the present for White House to get OLC onsides and explore all of its unilateral options. If Mike Lee is gonna threaten to blow up unanimous consent and use every procedural tool, Treasury should work every legal avenue too.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Historic announcement from the White House: Their announced rulemaking unlocks potentially game-changing policy tools for Dept of Energy. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve can now use fixed-price forward contracts to more flexibly promote energy security.

FACT SHEET: Department of Energy Releases New Notice of Sale as Gasoline Prices Continue to Fall |...

Treasury Department Estimates that Strategic Petroleum Reserve Releases by President Biden and International Partners Reduced the Price of Gasoline by up

www.whitehouse.gov

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

Needless to say, the Fed should play no part in this if the return of funds is for the explicit purpose of violating the CARES Act. This is just partisan hardball; compliance with Mnuchin's intent to violate the CARES Act would only hurt the Fed's future crisis-response capacity

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Would love to know how the Fed had a role in crashing egg prices

Markets Insider

@MktsInsider

1 year

Crashing egg prices signal the Fed is winning its war against inflation

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

There's not a lot of hope for people who want to get their macroeconomic information from the likes of Sacks and Balaji

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Speaks well of American intellectual and American left political culture that folks within it have largely recognized how counterproductive anti-nuclear stances really are. And been willing to revise views accordingly

Mélanie Vogel

@Melanie_Vogel_

1 year

Sex is good but have you tried having your country shutting down its last nuclear power plants in 30 mn?

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Hard for data to be as decisive as it has been last few days. Today is a test in intellectual honesty for folks who said in various ways recessionary unemployment increases and job losses were critical to slower inflation and wage growth.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

We really need to raise the standards for numeracy and statistical literacy in this country.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

This is some shit you only say when you are so completely detached from the basic realities of the material world (“we can do temporary units at Burning Man, so it’s easy peasy to just make them permanent”)

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

It is mistaken to think that the Fed just exhausted its ammunition just now. Yakov Feygin ( @BuddyYakov ) and I are calling for the Fed to commit to buying short-term state govt debt so that states have the financial flexibility to respond to the crisis.

The Fed Can And Should Support State Government Efforts To Respond To COVID-19 Right Now

Authors: Skanda Amarnath (Employ America), Yakov Feygin (Berggruen Institute)

medium.com

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

What’s the best explanation for what’s happening to the price of cotton rn?

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

The political reaction to Fukushima seems like one of the most underratedly terrible events of the 2010s

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

A little too on the nose. There are quite a few prominent folks in macro and finance who are basically demanding a Fed-induced recession/slowdown to validate the macro thesis they told their bosses/clients a year ago...

Khoa Vu

@KhoaVuUmn

1 year

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

4027(a) is very clear that Congress' $500B appropriation to the ESF was to "carry out this subtitle." 4027(c)(2) is the only place in the subtitle that permits a transfer to the general fund, and it specifies that this is only "On January 1, 2026" (not "by" or "no later than")

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

The prime-age employment rate is now higher than the pre-recession peak. And it did so in record time, despite starting from a lower base. It's been a historically rapid and complete recovery. Took over 12yrs to get back to pre-recession peak following the Great Recession

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Just a remarkable jobs report on virtually all the metrics that should matter, especially if you look through the details. Gonna try to thread all my thoughts in one place this time around.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

I did a meme

Justin Jacobs

@justinjfj

2 years

Oil executives overwhelmingly say investor pressure to maintain capital discipline is the primary reason publicly-traded oil firms are restraining growth in latest Dallas Fed survey. Just 6% say government regulations

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Don't be fooled by the headline commentary; this is another really solid jobs report The Prime-Age 25-54 Employment Rate adjusts for participation and demographic changes. It reached another new high in this expansion! Just 1% from all-time highs now (81.9% in April 2000)

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

24 days

@tysonbrody You might be kidding but there is something to this

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

This recovery simply doesn't have the generationally disastrous qualities of the previous two recoveries. The 2000s recovery was basically left incomplete. The 2010s recovery took over a decade

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

An unemployment rate that rises from 3.5% to 4.4% is not an unemployment rate that peaks at just 4.4%. I think everyone should assume the Fed is committed to engineering a recession.

Colby Smith

@colbyLsmith

2 years

Fed raises rates by 75bps to a target range of 3-3.25%. Officials see fed funds reaching 4.4% at year-end, suggesting one more 75bp hike this year, before peaking at 4.6% in '23. Unemployment set to rise to 4.4% with growth slowing. Core inflation still not at 2% target in '25.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

Scott is effectively saying that firms should have had the foresight to set up private pandemic reserve funds and plowed their free cash flow there instead. 🤦‍♂️ Better to just acknowledge that govt is better at insuring against certain risks, and regulate/tax accordingly

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

3 years

For a decade, US airlines spent 96% of their free cash flow on stock buybacks — until COVID came, then they took billions in government aid. @profgalloway , on @HBO last night, hasn’t forgotten. 🔥 (via @keithedwards )

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Jonesing for a recession. When all you have is a Phillips curve model of inflation (with some “glorified moving average” fudge variables wedged in) this is the advice you’re gonna get. Somewhere between willful thickness and bad faith

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

The Fed is projecting *three* successive years of the unemployment rate rising. That is something that simply does not happen in the absence of a recession. Incredibly strained projections here 🤔 Also seems like they view the Q1 GDP decline as signal and not noise

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

Such an obvious okie-doke McConnell and Mnuchin are trying to pull. I hope the media calls this out in real-time. There is no "repurposing" going on here. False tradeoff and misleading framing.

Erik Wasson

@elwasson

4 years

McCONNELL issues statement supporting Mnuchin effort to repurpose $580 billion in expiring CARES funds "Congress should repurpose this money toward the kinds of urgent, important, and targeted relief measures that Republicans have been trying to pass for months,"

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

All of the ideas that are getting media coverage for being “under consideration” are from the bottom of the barrel. Nothing that seems to get at root causes is brought into public discussion

Axios

@axios

2 years

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told ABC’s "This Week" a federal gas tax holiday is "worth considering” to ease the burden of soaring gas prices.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Nothing has changed for me professionally (thankfully!), except getting some needed bandwidth back and a healthier work-life balance. Been a long, stressful, and intellectually rewarding three years. Countless to thank. Very happy and relieved to have made it to the other side.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

10 months

Cartoonishly evil claim and yet not that different from the core intuition that has animated a lot of prominent economists over the past two years…

Financial Review

@FinancialReview

10 months

Gurner Group founder Tim Gurner tells the Financial Review Property Summit workers have become "arrogant" since COVID and "We've got to kill that attitude."

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

The previous three recessions and recoveries were generationally disastrou. This labor market recovery is proceeding exceptionally briskly

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Jokes aside we all know this is the correct answer

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

I feel like the administration could be doing a better job of highlighting / playing up these announcements. If you were trying to build a robust economic recovery and resilient expansion (the purpose of ARP), this is what you want to see. Demand->investment

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

3 years

(WSJ) - Samsung Electronics Co. plans to build a roughly $17 billion chip-making plant in Taylor, Texas, according to people familiar with the matter, a mega investment .. as the Biden administration pushes for an expansion of U.S. semiconductor production

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

12 days

This would also be a politicization of Fed policy. Fed has a Congressionally mandated objective to pursue maximum employment and stable prices. Election timing is not part of the Fed’s mandate…

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

12 days

A Republican Senator warned Powell about cutting rates prior to the election

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

Section 4027 of the CARES Act is quite clear about the timeline and set of purposes for which the ESF appropriation may be used:

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

The tragedy of 9/11 only feels worse w/ time b/c of the decisions it helped spawn. The media and the collective culture amplified the worst instincts then. Recent Afghanistan coverage leaves me concerned that little has been learned & the same foul amplification will happen again

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

Mint the coin, issue perpetuities, use the 14th amendment as a defense for overriding the debt ceiling… All of these options should be exercised once and we can end this stupid law (that functionally contradicts other law) once and for all

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

BOOM! 80.3% Prime-Age Employment Population Ratio in August, now on par with 2019Q4 levels!

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

If you want an employment measure that adjusts for changes in 1) participation 2) aging 3) underemployment Use the Full-Time Prime-Age Employment Rate. Rocketed up to 70.9% from 70.4% in December. 1.0% gain in Q4 (avg). 1.3% in last 3 months Just 0.8% from 2019Q4 levels

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

“Will the US Dollar meet the same fate? Warning signs from Bitcoin’s collapse” A painfully dumb column someone is going to write

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

If you liked this chart last month, you'll like it even more this month. We are on track to have our first prime-age employment recovery--in many decades--that will not be generationally disastrous. Don't take this recovery for granted....

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Larry Summers wants a recession. I think that is the most straightforward distillation of what he’s calling for

Jeanna Smialek

@jeannasmialek

2 years

But others are more worried, like @LHSummers . “The question is: Is this the Fed’s Paul Volcker moment, or is this the Fed’s Arthur Burns moment?” he said.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

Thinking about how Silicon Valley gloated about autonomous vehicles and every Davos attendee bellyached about how automation is the source of inequality (“and truck drivers are next!”), only for it to be revealed that weak staffing & compensation are the chronic challenges rn

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

WTI crude oil prices are getting very close to the Biden bid 👀

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

‘Non-work breeds reactionary populism and I will not think twice about pushing society to engineer non-employment as a primary method for managing price pressures’ I would describe this as revealed preference for reactionary populism

Lawrence H. Summers

@LHSummers

2 years

There is some social phenomenon which I suspect explains non work, non marriage, deaths of despair, general alienation and, I suspect, the rise of reactionary populism. It should be a major task of social science to understand it.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Hope the toxicity on Twitter about student loan debt relief starts to wind down, because there is a bigger picture discussion to be had about all of the claims made in the early 2010s. Folks like Raghuram Rajan blamed high unemployment on a lack of higher education. He was wrong

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

8 months

Make a course called “Foundations of Civilization” but no Plato, Classics, western canon. Its just a history of technological developments in agricultural productivity

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

8 months

DEUTSCHE: “.. over the very long run, agricultural prices have tended to decline in real terms. .. Your children's #Thanksgiving will be cheaper.”

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

I am so impressed with AOC's ability to mainstream some pretty complex ideas that even more niche business/econ discourse gloss over (e.g. the economic stakes of getting the causal mechanisms behind inflation and monetary policy right). Amazing

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

The sectors where we are seeing the most chronically reported shortages are seeing a strong production/supply-side response now (primary metals, chemicals, plastic & rubber products, electronic products, electrical components, medical supplies).

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Are there really no useful parts that can be salvaged for other purposes?

Fabien Levy

@Fabien_Levy

2 years

“As we stand in the shadow of the Freedom Tower, we are freeing ourselves of these destructive pieces of machinery that are on our streets. They will be CRUSHED today so that they can never terrorize our city again.” - @NYCMayor Good riddance to illegal dirt bikes and ATVs.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

7 months

Totally crank stuff here. I too find st*ncil annoying but it's not an excuse for not understanding what the personal saving rate actually measures. But Nate can be sorta be forgiven b/c it's not like economists don't perpetuate these misunderstandings.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

7 months

It shows people having no more income in real terms than they had when Biden took office. You would not expect a president to be reelected with zero income growth. And the balance sheet impact shows up in the savings rate data, which is historically low.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

We are at the rate limit. No more Fed hikes allowed

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

ICYMI: the disincentive explanation for the April drop-off in payroll gains fails to fit the sectoral data. If a $300 weekly supplement was having that effect, we should see it more visibly in low-wage sectors, but we don't. Mid- & high-wage sectors account for bulk of slowdown

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

It is very weird how many people took off their mask this past year and said “I think monetary policy can only impact inflation through engineering higher unemployment and I think that is a desirable state of affairs”

David Andolfatto

@dandolfa

2 years

"The *only* way to bring inflation down is to make sure that millions of people lose their jobs." If this is a property of your theory, maybe it's time to re-think your theory. I have a suggestion. 🙂

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

Trying (and still failing) to restrain my tweets to what's in my wheelhouse. Just disgusted by such irresponsible press coverage. Tantamount to gaslighting and a recipe for history to repeat itself. 20 years later and yet so many have learned nothing.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

The two things that are really bad about American higher ed system is that 1) there are no cost control mechanisms on providers that correspond to the scale of subsidization (including turning a blind eye on future income prospects), and 2) bad debt can’t be discharged via bk

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

This (the highlighted) seems like a good thing.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

The lurch to cut fuel taxes all over the world (not just India or in the US) is so intellectually bankrupt. Subsidizing demand amidst a material shortage is dishonest & counterproductive (so much for all the climate rhetoric). At best, very inefficiently cross-subsidizes supply

Nikkei Asia

@NikkeiAsia

2 years

INFLATION | INDIA TO CUT FUEL TAX India will reduce taxes on gasoline and diesel to fight inflation and keep prices of essential items in check, the finance minister said Saturday.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

Mnuchin & Toomey three weeks ago: "We have to close the facilities b/c the law tells us to do this." Mnuchin & Toomey now: "We can't pass relief unless it has language to close the Fed facilities (nvm what we told you about how we were legally forced to close these facilities)"

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

B*tcoin folks learning what EM FX heads already know about Mexican peso. The more hours of liquidity and tradability isn’t exactly a *good* thing. The easiest panic button becomes the de facto panic button

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

The Prime-Age 25-54 *Full-Time* Employment Rate Increased from 69.7% to 70.4%. A 0.7% gain. Closing in fast on pre-pandemic levels This recovery is in overdrive right now

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

Does Nikki Haley not know what we're doing for businesses right now? Sounds like she's also against PPP. If your answer in recessions is "you should have saved more!" you fundamentally misunderstand the nature of recessions. Tbf, this error is also committed by folks on the left

Nikki Haley

@NikkiHaley

4 years

States should always plan for a rainy day just like any business. I disagree that states should take Fed money or be bailed out. This will lead to taxpayers paying for mismanagement of poorly run states. States need to tighten up, make some cuts, and manage.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

I get that you should play to your strengths, but right now there is growing panic about inflation. In March 2020, WH and Congress recognized there’s a crisis and took serious actions. I do not see anything close to that level of focus right now

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

I guess this is one way to convince people that inflation is distributional conflict…

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

11 months

‘Xi reportedly turns cultural victory off whenever he plays Civ’

hk

@hassankhan

11 months

Another implication of Chinese leadership’s commitment to export driven growth at the expense of consumption is I reckon it continues to limit China’s cultural influence globally

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

I still think “We’ve gotta invest our way through it” is an underrated (and coherent) political message for combatting inflation. Especially with the Ukraine shock, the world needs more food, energy, other basic commodities in addition to what was already in short supply

Chad Moutray

@chadmoutray

2 years

Over the past 12 months, activity has soared 33.9%. These data speak to the strength and resilience of the manufacturing sector and the need to increase capacity to meet demand.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

9 months

As heretical as it might be to say, there's a growing risk that Fed rate hikes risk *stoking* higher rent inflation in 2025, 2026, and 2027 How? The Fed's actions are currently reducing building permits for multifamily rental supply. Exacerbates structural housing shortage

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Medlock gonna change the game for Contracts profs teaching 1Ls about offer & acceptance

James Medlock

@jdcmedlock

1 year

@peruvian_bull Ok you're on, talk to you 6/21/2033. M2 is high in large part because we saved the economy from ruin

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Remains a Top 50 tweet in the history of this website

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

@Ahmadinejad1956

6 years

@fredzannarbor @Kaepernick7 @CoachJim4UM With a hard work ethic Inshallah the U of M will return to its glory days.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

Aside from bonus "bipartisanship" praise, it does seem like the Romney plan furthers a longer term goal of building a universal well-functioning welfare state, one not burdened by kludgy means-tested programs (removing them inflicts serious costs, but so too does their existence)

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

Finished "Trade Wars Are Class Wars" last night. Most of my praise will prove redundant. If you're new to the discipline, this is much better than anything taught in intro, intermediate, or advanced macro. I hope this can be a generational inflection point in macro thought

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

The Full-Time Prime-Age 25-54 Rate IS NOW AT A 21-YEAR HIGH! Adjusts for underemployment, in addition to participation and demographics. Gained 0.3% in August to 72%! Surpasses the peak of the previous recovery!

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

However much credit you want to give current policymakers for employment trajectory, it’s pretty clear that preceding policymakers failed on this score. Massive improvement this time There is no good reason to tolerate semi-permanent declines in age-adjusted employment rates

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Up now as an @employamerica report: What Are You Expecting? How The Fed Slows Down Inflation Through The Labor Market The Fed's role in slowing down inflation is taken for granted, but we should be clear about the core causal mechanisms at play...

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

So there’s an obvious business vs labor dynamic here but this statement also reflects a business vs business conflict One set of firms is ready to pay up and willing to facilitate job-switching. The other (like this firm) relied on cheap access to labor & was caught offsides

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

2 years

Here's someone telling the Dallas Fed that we need another recession for workers learn to appreciate the value of a good job. One of the most clear examples you'll ever read of the business case against full employment or demand side policies.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Lol

Simon Casey

@sjcasey

2 years

“There has been discussion in the US about our industry returning some of our profits directly to the American people. That’s exactly what we’re doing in the form of our quarterly dividend," Exxon's CEO said

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Closing in on a total recovery in the Prime-Age 25-54 Employment Rate. 0.2% away from the monthly peak (80.5%). We're already at the quarterly peak (80.3%) Unlike the previous recoveries, this won't take ~ decade to achieve. A remarkable feat...starting to show the others up

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

Speculative thought: Andrew Yang could be a good pick for Secretary of Commerce. Commerce is where much of the econ data collection happens. In his campaign, Yang seemed especially interested in moving beyond the reliance on "GDP" for capturing standard of living improvement.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

5 years

But if we tax the wealthy, we’ll be penalizing the best allocators of capital.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Unobjectionable to say the Fed hikes can lower inflation, but at the expense of lower output and employment (see: Volcker shock). Simplistically, demand falls *relative* to supply, but this relative judgment disguises a problem: Fed tightening hurts both demand *AND SUPPLY*

Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Now up on the @employamerica blog: The Supply-Side Damage Has Begun: The Dark Side Of Fed Tightening Tl;dr People assume that Fed policy has exclusive effects on demand and no effect on supply. This is wrong. Just see housing Thread coming in a few hrs

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

Hot Take: We would not be closing the employment gap (vs pre-pandemic levels) this quickly if not for the American Rescue Plan. The pace of employment gains caught a necessary second wind this year. Without it, we would be seeing yet another sluggish employment recovery

Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

The Prime-Age 25-54 *Full-Time* Employment Rate Increased from 69.7% to 70.4%. A 0.7% gain. Closing in fast on pre-pandemic levels This recovery is in overdrive right now

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

While everyone is fixating on what the ISM Manufacturing number might mean, manufacturers sure do seem to be investing heavily in structures right now *Real Inflation Adjusted* plant investment is on an absolute tear. 10% in April! Cc @BrianCDeese @jennifermharris

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

3 years

It’s gonna be funny if we look back in a decade and the highest-impact transportation innovation wasn’t AVs or electric cars, but the humble ebike

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

The Fed is going to bring down a number of activity indicators before it May have any causal impact on inflation. Not clear to me that WH or Congress understands the full implication. Only thing worse than inflation is inflation+recession…

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

2 years

We're seeing in real time why we don't build enough homes in this country. Yesterday, Jerome Powell talked about the need for a "reset" of the US housing market. But the immediate effect from higher rates is we're seeing a big drop in housing starts

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

6 months

Aerospace is so complex, consolidated, & capital-intensive that even if you don’t want to do “industrial policy” you’re effectively engaged in it (FAA, Pentagon). Just a question of whether you’re passive or active about the objectives. Better to be eyes wide open imo

Josh Wingrove

@josh_wingrove

6 months

(Bloomberg) -- The Biden administration will undertake a wide-ranging review of oversight and quality control at Boeing Co. after the planemaker’s latest missteps, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Wednesday, via @justinsink .

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

4 years

@johnmeadeb Great question. There are internal processes available for remedying such conduct. If the next Treasury Secretary and corresponding counsel make legal findings that transfers were made incorrectly or illegally, Bureau of the Fiscal Service would redirect funds to correct location

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Powell now believes that a resilient labor market is an asset to achieving a soft landing, rather than a hindrance. And he believes the labor market can cool gradually and doesn't require the kind of precipitous deterioration that the Fed was more clearly projecting earlier 👍

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

1 year

Biggest problem w/ debt ceiling debate is the implicit legitimacy it receives, at the expense of all other laws. It deserves no such respect; it's a Congressional exercise in contradictory arithmetic. As if one side of a triangle can be larger than the sum of the other two.

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 years

Can’t think of two worse places for thinking about solving climate change than banks and Big Tech. McKibben seems very earnest but also very very wrong, and the New Yorker clearly lacked a bullshit detector here

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Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

17 days

The Fed is probably too slow to put a July cut on the table but they absolutely should. Labor mkt has substantially cooled. A gratuitous risk to look past the unemployment rate rise. Inflation poised to show more slowing 200-275bps of policy restriction doesn't make much sense

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