Irnest Kaplan @IrnestKaplan Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Irnest Kaplan

@IrnestKaplan

11,183

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428

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Technology equity analyst. Investor. Tech co’s. Electrical Engineer. CFA Charterholder. Took that photo above in the Kruger Park in Jun '17. Lovely cheetah!

Johannesburg, South Africa

https://t.co/B2O8ExDud7

Joined April 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$RBLX - Roblox Observations & thoughts Been through the prospectus & IR materials Bottom line - exciting, not cheap, worth studying further Popular platform for games & interaction for kids but extending to wider age group & other use cases -> metaverse A thread... 1/n

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Tech companies - Free Cash Flow margin after DEDUCTING Stock Based Compensation SBC is a feature of many tech co’s. Several boast healthy FCF mgns but when you deduct SBC the picture changes Some popular names sorted by (FCF-SBC)/Rev Once again @KoyfinCharts makes this easy

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Stock Based Comp is a big feature of tech co’s Necessary to pull in talent, but we shld watch for too much dilution Thanks to @KoyfinCharts “formulas” here’s some popular names sorted by SBC/GP I like the ratio - shows how much mgn is taken up by SBC Observations follow...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

I think there’s good opportunities in the making Look at $FB PE ratio back to 21x, same as bottom of the COVID March 2020 fall Last 2 PE lowpoints proved to be great buying points. - At 18x in beginning of 2019 - subsequent gain 80% - At 21x in Mar 20 - subsequent gain 150%

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$RBLX - Roblox Spent quite a lot of effort over past week or so going through the prospectus Should I make a thread with my comments, observations and questions ? Would you appreciate it? Will take me some time to put together. I have plenty notes...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$AMZN now on a 34% drawdown Equal to the worst in the last decade Opportunity or trap ?

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Stock Based Comp is a big feature of tech co’s Necessary to pull in talent, but we shld watch for too much dilution Thanks to @KoyfinCharts “formulas” here’s some popular names sorted by SBC/GP I like the ratio - shows how much mgn is taken up by SBC Observations follow...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

“Now stop worrying & go live your life” The last 2 months have been tough for me. But God answered my prayers & spared me. Plus I had a top class surgeon who saved me - with grace & professionalism (thread 1/n)

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$SE What I like about this South East Asian gem is that price can go up 50% from $200 to $300 in 8 months but the P/S ratio stays the same at about 20x Growth monster

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

1 year

@QCompounding Thanks for the thread @QCompounding But just so people know, Damodaran offers a lot of his course materials for free from his website Have a look Notes, YouTube Videos, sample files etc

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$NET - Cloudflare TTM Rev $530M MktCap $51B MC/Rev = 96x What needs to happen to get some kind of investment return over the next 5y? Lots of talk about them being the 4th cloud & can take some share from $AMZN ‘s AWS Let’s investigate...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

@ChrisBloomstran @ChrisBloomstran , $ARKK has outperformed massively Your fund has underperformed the S&P 500 for 7 out of the last 10 yrs 👇 Your fund focuses more on capital preservation than growth So maybe you targeting older wealthier folk & $ARKK is targeting younger folk ?

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Free Cash Flow yield update $FB 7.9% $GOOG 4.9% $AAPL 4.6% $MSFT 3.2% All gone up a lot this year. FCF might be under pressure in the near term though Amazing to see that when Berkshire bought $AAPL (around 2016) it’s FCF yield was way higher - above 10%!

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

1 year

11 FAILED STOCKS But are they FAILED COMPANIES? Recovery potential? % off peak $SE -77% (recov above 40w ma) $PINS -69% $SHOP -74% (on cusp of 40w ma) $SQ -77% (going sideways < 40w ma) $TWLO -87% $DOCU -82% $ROKU -87% $MTTR -93% $ZM -88% $DLO -82% (down still) $LSPD -89%

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Several high g tech co's are at eye-watering multiples What IRR can you get over 3,5,7 yrs if their P/S multiple halves or gets cut to a third? Here's my basic IRR calculator for this situation Bottom line - if multiples get tanked, it's going to be hard to get a decent IRR

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

1 year

High growth SaaS - metrics, observations & thoughts $NET $CRWD $ZS $DDOG $MDB $SNOW Bottom line 🟢 Valuations have come down a LOT 🔴 But so has rev growth 🟡 They still spending LOTS on S&M ▶️ To make a good return, they’ll need high durable g & strong FCF A thread… 1/n

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

@saxena_puru Tencent is now Fivecent

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

1 year

@HodaMehr @ColinKeeley Agree I’d say they are - Sleep - Exercise - Limiting the calories

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

There are often strong rallies in bear markets Last week, NASDAQ was up a strong 9%! Should we get excited yet? I don’t think so During the Dot com crash, we saw many such strong up runs & weeks on the way DOWN Let’s review Upruns during dot com crash (3 > 30%)

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$NVDA FCF rocketship Over last 10yrs : 1. GP mgn steadily improves from 52% to 65% 2. Has flowed through to FCF mgn DOUBLING from 15% to 30% 3. Combined with strong revenue growth, FCF has rocketed up more than 10X from $640M to $8B

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Super video Always great to hear @saxena_puru go through his thoughts on the market. He explains things very clearly. And wonderful to have Rob from @KoyfinCharts pulling up the relevant charts while Puru is talking Lovely, thanks gents 👍👍

@KoyfinCharts

Koyfin

3 years

Check out the latest episode of Investing Wizards where Puru Saxena @saxena_puru discusses his current market thoughts, where we are in the Fed cycle, which indicators he's monitoring to get more bullish growth and stocks he currently owns.

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

D-Local $DLO Been through *most* of the prospectus & IR materials for this exciting emerging markets Fintech player. Have plenty of notes 😀 Also had a chance to ask IR questions It will take me some time but who’d like me to do a thread on my first impressions?

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

1 year

$SE Sea Limited Q123 Have reviewed numbers & listened to call Looks good to me 👍 Becoming more cash positive Last 5 quarters I calculate ($M): CFO -724 -485 -166 +320 +606 Capex -270* -270* -232 -152 -101 FCF -994 -775 -398 +168 +505

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

4 years

Still lots of growth in the years ahead as more people connect to the internet $SE - Asia $MELI - Latam $BABA - China And watching for Africa - just not sure yet about $JMIA cc @MadsC007 , @saxena_puru , @trevmuchedzi , @iafrikan

@zerohedge

zerohedge

4 years

Visualizing Where The Next Billion Internet Users Come From?

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

What’s $BRK Berkshire seeing in $HPQ HP Inc? HPQ makes laptops & printers - far from sexy in today’s nextgen cloud software world BRK bought 11% for $4.2B. Why? ✅ it’s doing well, producing good cash & not expensive Let’s compare $HPQ to Tech peers of its day Thread...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

I started as a technology sell-side equity analyst at Societe Generale Securities in July 2000 A year later, the NASDAQ was 53% down 2 years later, it was 73% down Those two years were a great education 😂

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Tech moving down Great opportunities starting to be formed Can $MSFT get to $200? (Now $244) $NVDA - will be see $130? (Now $159) $DDOG P/S now 23x, can it get to below 20x? $ADYEY now $12.80 - will we see $10? $CSU CAD1852 - will we see 1500? $AMZN - soon to be below $100

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Check this $MELI vs $SHOP Similar mkt caps ( $43B vs $37B) Yet $MELI produced $1B FCF LTM $SHOP only $58M (million) Either $MELI is too low or $SHOP is too high 🤷‍♂️

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$PTON Price has dropped to $56 Markets are interesting. This is the price it was end June 2020 (on way up). Buying it like crazy. P/S was 11 times Now P/S is less than half & the shares are being thrown away I know the outlooks are different but still Opportunity or trap?

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Free Cash Flow vs Stock Based Compensation A short thread covering selected co’s to show the contrast First, let’s look at those with SBC > FCF Ie they’re paying staff in SBC more than they generate in FCF Worst one is $TWLO Totally divergent ❌ FCF down, SBC flying up

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$SNOW - Snowflake If they achieve FY29 targets ($10B rev, 25% FCF mgn) & assuming 4% dilution To get a 20% inv return over next 6y, they'd need a P/FCF of 69x at that point For a 15% return, they'd need a 54x multiple 10% would need a 41x multiple (more reasonable imo)

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$ROKU Since Dec 19 (pre COVID) ✅ It’s gone up 2.2X ($136 -> $302) ✅ Yet the P/S multiple is unchanged (16.5x) Illustrates the power of growth Current pullback looks like it might present some opportunities...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$SE Opportunity in the making but can still fall further EV/Rev NTM has halved to 8.3x Pre Covid : 3-6 range Mar 20 fall it dropped to 4x Then with COVID & stimulus it rocketed up nearly 4 times to around 15x Could easily fall to 6x , another 28%... @KoyfinCharts below

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$SE Sea Limited Q4 22 results Impressive, they did what they said Now profitable and CFO & FCF positive My calcs for q cash flows (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q422 in $ M) CFO -724 -485 -166 +320 Capex -270* -270* -232 -152 FCF -994 -775 -398 +168 (* half of H1) Cash stable & debt down

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$CRWD Crowdstrike In order to get 20% investment CAGR over next 5 yrs, they need revenue to compound at ~68% This assumes: - they hit their 30% FCF mgn target - year 5 P/FCF of 40x Rev grew 84% for FY21. Can they do 68% forward for 5 years? Priced for perfection?

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

E-commerce year to date $MELI worst performer - down 21% Why? $OZON & $SE at the top $SHOP & $AMZN in the middle

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

@Beth_Kindig Wow, Beth has such a deep understanding of the trends & big shifts in tech Loved her views on Cloud SW, Roku & Unity Star pres. Beth, thank you🙏 Her pick for 5/10y if mkts closed - $NVDA - Nvidia - could be more valuable than Apple, no worry about dnside

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

FinTwit Summit 2021 So far, excellent. Big congrats to @SeifelCapital & @dhaval_kotecha . Slick & fantastic! Speakers are excellent ! @FintwitSummit

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

4 years

My thoughts on $TWLO 's Segment acq after listening to the conf call: - Makes sense - Solving something important - single view of customer - Buying a leader in a related high growth space - Raises TAM from $62-79B (27%) - Accretive to $TWLO - paying lower mult 1/11

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$GOOG Didnt matter if you bought in July '18 at peak P/FCF multiple of 41x Despite P/FCF contraction to 27x today, you'd have made 21% CAGR (from $1268 to $2680) over 4y FCF rocketed up from there from negative g Moral: if the FCF is firing, multiple contraction is ok

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

@jaminball ‘s top 10 SaaS multiple names are the creme of the crop (see below) But how do their FCF mgns stack up when taking out Stock Based Comp? Here’s a table of these 10 names in same order as @jaminball ‘s table (by NTM Rev multiple) Comments to follow...

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@jaminball

Jamin Ball

2 years

This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

1 year

@eldsjal Tilting our heads down and looking at a rectangular gadget for hours

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

4 years

Feb 27, 2020 $BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway 2020 Annual Report is out Great wisdom going back so many years in the chairman’s letter Will touch on some parts I found interesting: Performance Conglomerates Apple Partnerships Stab at charts Fixed Assets! A thread... 😀 1/n

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

4 years

Seems like Zoom Video $ZM may have bottomed After a 3 month downtrend 👀 Ben @PatternProfits , what do you think? 😀

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$SE Q1 2021 results I went through the numbers & listened to the call All sounds good to me 👍 CEO Forrest Li says pace of digitalization is continuing Q&A well handled I felt. Tone sounds confident. Strong growth and healthy cash flows 💎

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Nice to know that Sea Limited $SE picks the most influential person to promote Shopee Cristiano Ronaldo - In the number 1 spot Great chart @VisualCap cc : @MadsC007 , @FromValue , @saxena_puru

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@VisualCap

Visual Capitalist

3 years

The World's Top 50 Influencers Across Social Platforms 📊

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Elsewhere, @CapitalKnowhow asked if $SE had any off-balance sheet debt. I reached out to $SE ‘s IR and got back the answer Good news There is NO off-balance sheet debt. So just what you see in their financials. @MadsC007 , @InvestmentTalkk , @saxena_puru , @TheMarkCooke

@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

4 years

@CapitalKnowhow @InvestmentTalkk That’s a good question, I don’t know if any debt is off balance sheet. Does anyone know? But on the latest quarter, there’s no “conventional debt” just $1.8B of convertible notes

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

@KoyfinCharts vs @ycharts Been using these two platforms for 1-2yrs They’re both good & have helped me to speed up my process But there are differences Am going to highlight the pros & cons from my perspective as a technology sector fundamental analyst / investor

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Delighted to continue to be rated as an analyst in the Computing & Electronics sector for the 2022 Financial Mail Top Analyst Awards (South Africa) Thank you to the buy-side analysts & fund managers that voted for me! And for your ongoing support. ...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Outstanding q from @akramsrazor If you bought $CRM, one of the most successful SW businesses of all time in 2008 at a 50x Price to Sales multiple, you'd only have returned 8% CAGR over the past 12.75 y The actual return has been 31% CAGR - because the P/S then was 4x (not 50x)

@akramsrazor

DaRazor

3 years

If you paid 50x rev for $crm when it crossed $1bl in rev what would you have compounded at by today? Btw- i don't know the answer but am curious

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$SE ➡️ EV/GP now at 50.5x (Share price $284) Been in decline since Feb 21 👀 Back to pre-pandemic levels Low point in March 2020 was about 27x How low can/will it go? Thanks again @KoyfinCharts for the EV/GP ratio 👍

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Dilution in the top multiple cloud names Mostly single digit percentage increase per year over the last 2 years It’s ok if they keep on growing fast

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$MELI - Mercado Libre The power of compounding from high growth Compared to pre-pandemic: - P/S has compressed by ~30% (16 to 11.6) - Yet share price has doubled ($740-$1480) 💪 Latam e-Commerce powerhouse 💪

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$MELI EV/GP back to where it was pre-pandemic - 22x Yet GP growth since COVID has rocketed Unless GP mgn keeps falling a lot this looks like a winner to me Dec16 GP LTM 612M Dec 19 1.3B (3y cagr 29%) Sep 21 2.9B (1.75y cagr 58%!) Thanks @KoyfinCharts for the EV/GP ratio 👍

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@MaxTheComrade

Max Bosenko

3 years

$MELI Morgan Stanley with PT of $2,420, about 50% upside from where the stock closed on Friday. Don’t listen to me, listen to “smart money”.

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$SHOP Rev g declining since 2016 (except for Covid blip) Now 20% Hasn’t produced free cash flow besides for Covid blip. Back to negative Share count continues marching up They have $4B net cash at least But how on earth is the Mkt Cap $50B ? What am I missing ?

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$TWLO - Twilio chart storm - Aggressive grower Sizeable co growing fast -> $2B at 60% CPaaS expanding into cust experience mgmnt Some say unprofitable & just buying growth Let’s analyze some of the numbers A short thread...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Delighted to continue to be rated as an analyst in the Computing & Electronics sector for the 2021 Financial Mail Top Analyst Awards (South Africa) A big thank you to the buy-side analysts & fund managers that voted for me & for all your great support over the past year!

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

@Valuations_ $GOOG is cheaper now on a P/FCF basis than it was in March 2020 (22x vs 25x) How much are you expecting FCF ps to drop? FCF ps could drop about 15% to 85 for the rating to be same Fcasts for EBIT are low to mid teens for next 3y (I don’t have FCF consensus fcasts)

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Growth vs Value over past 1Y Mirror image (Courtesy @KoyfinCharts )

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$MELI Q322 results look good For 9 months to Sep GP up 72% EBIT up 64% (3m to Sep q up 85% 💪) NI up 145% FCF up to ~ $1B Balance sheet strong They executing well 👌 Keeping $MELI for the longer term 👍

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

4 years

@saxena_puru What concerns me re $JMIA : MTN, the largest pan-African mobile operator & leader in Nigeria - recently sold their ~18% stake. Yes, they’re selling non core assets, but they’re smart & know Africa very well If this was about to be the next $AMZN, I doubt they’d have sold now

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

1 year

High growth SaaS Sales & Marketing vs Revenue growth $NET $CRWD $DDOG $MDB $ZS $SNOW In the table, I’m looking how S&M/rev has changed since pre-COVID (3y ago). And comparing to rev g 🟢 Interestingly, $ZS is the only one whose rev g has increased, compared to pre-COVID.

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

15 days

@Beth_Kindig Current Rev forecasts for $NVDA FY25 (Jan 25) $121B (growth of 99%) FY26 $168B (38%) FY27 $194B (15%) So growth expected to reduce a lot However Look at that $168B rev fcast for FY26 At the beginning of this year it was $110B 👀 So fcasts rapidly rising @KoyfinCharts

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

US market opens and we getting ready for a glorious African sunset 💎

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Thank you @MadsC007 & @mathiasboe for interviewing me on your podcast @aktieuniverset English part with me starts at ~ 18:30 What I do professionally, my journey and some of my approaches, including the importance of studying the CEO Thank you gents I enjoyed it!

@aktieuniverset

Aktieuniverset

@aktieuniverset

3 years

Så er vi klar igen til at kigge på et vingeskudt aktiemarked. GRVY og TTCF har fremlagt regnskaber og DHER er gået i kælderen, det kigger vi naturligvis på. Investor @IrnestKaplan er med igennem fra Sydafrika 😊😍

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Nasdaq 100 is making its 3rd bounce up on the way down Is this the bottom or is there more downside to come?

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

@forwardcap This is classic @forwardcap Unprofessional but what a spectacle! Found this clip on YouTube where you can listen to him saying some of the above

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'Messing with the wrong guy': Cleveland Cliffs CEO berates analysts...

CNBC's Dominic Chu reports that Cleveland Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves berated analysts on his company's conference call.

www.youtube.com

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

When you identify a company that is growing fast, being successful & disrupting its industry - led by top class management Then It’s a great opportunity when Mr Market brings down its price significantly Ladies & gentlemen, set your sights... Opportunities in the making

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$FB Nice 21% CAGR since Jan18 (last 3.75 yrs) At 33X, the P/FCF rating is the same as in Jan 18 Yet the share price has doubled ($177 to $364) P/FCF range has been 20-40X, so doesn't look stretched at the moment Chart from @KoyfinCharts

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$NET Cloudflare starting to look better at $13B mktcap If they get their $5B Rev tgt in 5y (37% cagr, not easy but doable) & say they can make $1B FCF 30x mult yields $30B or 2.3x from here 18% cagr. Take off a bit for dilution , 15% A lot needs to go right but looking better

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Better to wait 6 months on new listings $CPNG traded in a wide range on its first day but conceivable you could have gotten it at $60 It’s halved to $30

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

@StockJabber Incredible Saw this great chart from @AlbertBridgeCap

@AlbertBridgeCap

Drew Dickson

@AlbertBridgeCap

2 years

Summing up the entire pandemic investing experience in one chart, with just two stocks.

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

@MacroAlf Interesting , thanks @MacroAlf Is the S*P 494 the 494 largest ? Or is it excluding the 6 largest ?

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

1 year

Lovely thread on Joel Greenblatt, thank @KoyfinCharts Here, I used @KoyfinCharts itself (with its wonderful configurable formulas in the watchlist) to work out liquidation value (LV) according to Greenblatt’s formula in your thread. I added Market Cap to compare to LV ✅ And

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@KoyfinCharts

Koyfin

1 year

In the early 1980s, Joel Greenblatt authored a paper on buying stocks selling below liquidation value and ran some backtests with impressive results. He named it 'How the Small Investor Can Beat the Market'. Here are the key takeaways 🧵

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Power of compounding If you grow at 25% a year for 5 years, you get to 3.1x To do it in 4 years, you need ~30% In 3 yrs, you need a bit more than 40% I keep this spreadsheet on my desktop for occasional quick referral when I'm too lazy to fire up the calculator Hope it helps

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

@saxena_puru Outstanding performance @saxena_puru 9 bagged over past five years. My word, what a run! Congrats Thanks for what you always share 🙏 Wishing you all the best for the coming 5 years! Will be watching and learning...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

17 2 photos which show what legendary medical care is & how lucky I was to receive it. 1st is me on day 2 Then being discharged a few days later 🎉 #gratitude #liveyourlife #meaning

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

@saxena_puru Thanks @saxena_puru The generals are indeed getting shot but the wounded troops are getting shot again !

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$CRWD Crowdstrike is a leader in Digital Threat Intelligence Management SPARK Matrix - March 2022 Many names in this chart I’ve not heard of before cc @InvestiAnalyst @hhhypergrowth

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$MSFT Q322 (to March) Checked results & listened to call EBIT up 23% yoy (constant currency) FCF up 17% They doing v well in Office & Cloud Nadella says clients not cutting digital transformation spend Good guidance CEO & CFO sound upbeat & confident Thumbs up from me 👍

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$NVDA drawdowns over past 22 yrs Currently 44% It’s been very volatile - After 2000, two big drawdowns over 80% - From 2015 it’s been more “stable” - 50% in 2019 - Covid crash didn’t reach 40% Definitely one to watch... CEO Jensen Huang is formidable

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Always fantastic talking to @MadsC007 & @mathiasboe about high growth tech on the @aktieuniverset podcast We spoke about recent fall, P/S ratio & diff. to Dot com Touched on $ADYEY, $DLO $NET & $AMZN $SNOW Enjoyed it. You guys are great! Link below 👇 (I start at 29min)

@aktieuniverset

Aktieuniverset

@aktieuniverset

2 years

Markedsnyheder, det nye FAANG og besøg af Irnest Kaplan til en generel snak om markederne lige nu, er bla. dagens emner. Aktieuniverset 78

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

4 years

Very pleased to continue to be rated as an analyst in the Computing & Electronics sector for the 2020 FM Analyst Rankings. Means a lot to me. A BIG thank you to the institutional asset managers that voted for me & for the great support in the past year!

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

30 days

@RihardJarc That $INTC tangible book value: - is generating large losses ($2B over last 6 months) - producing negative Free Cash Flow of ~$10B per quarter for 2y I know they’re investing in the future, but if they can’t make it, then achieving tangible book value ($85B) is not too bad!

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Growth outdoing multiple compression $SHOP - sh price up 50% since Jun20 and P/S falling by 1/6 $SNOW - since the peak in Oct20, P/S has halved yet sh price has declined by less (25%)

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

1 year

Delighted to continue to be rated as the top analyst in the Computing & Electronics sector (Technology) for the 2023 Financial Mail Top Analyst Awards (South Africa) A BIG THANK YOU to the fund managers & buy-side analysts that voted for me! And for your ongoing support. ...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

@saxena_puru It may be cyclical in nature @saxena_puru But over the next say 5-10yrs, it does have a heck of a tailwind regarding the switch to EVs So despite the underlying cyclicality, it should have a secular growth story portion fueling it for some time Just my view

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

@saxena_puru @YahooFinance @saxena_puru , I like how you keep a short leash, change your mind based on the facts and move on 💪

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

4 - How does the money flow? Assume an App Store purchase of 800 Robux for $9.99. Call it $10. - Conv rate to go in : 0.00125 - buy experiences from dev - dev keeps 70% ie 560 Robux - Dev converts back to $ at 0.0035 (set by Roblox) - dev gets $1.96

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

I find studying great co's & their CEOs very stimulating But I think the main thing is to have FUN and ENJOY THE JOURNEY Being able to connect with & learn from so many like-minded amazing folk here on FinTwit has been truly remarkable! Thank you all

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

4 years

$SE 2Q20 results were strong and @MadsC007 did an excellent video! Thank you! Thoroughly enjoyed watching it Loved the platform economics & social aggregator themes It's clear that you deeply understand this space & $SE Increased my position

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@MadsC007

Mads Christiansen

4 years

$SE CITI raises to $168 I have just shot my own video breaking down Q2. Coming out later today on my YouTubeChannel

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

$DDOG $NET $TWLO Free cash flow (LTM) after Q322 results $DDOG up there and increasing $NET continues running on the limiter (below zero) but has big capex too $TWLO moving in the wrong direction, getting more negative @KoyfinCharts below @ycharts still not updated with Q3

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$SQ - Square EV/GP It’s halved from a peak of 50x to 25x Was around 16x pre COVID How low can it go? Thanks to @KoyfinCharts for giving us EV/GP, which is more sensible for Square than revenue

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Incredible multiple contraction in high g tech co’s From a Sep 21 thread of mine which looked at what IRR one gets assuming various levels of g & multiple contraction over 3, 5 & 7yrs: I didn’t think we’d reach two thirds mult. contraction in several months ! Let’s explore...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Inspired by Ryan @investing_city ‘s tweet on high quality co’s with high mgns & good 5y rev g, I added 5y FCF growth & ROIC And sorted by 5y total returns Table from @ycharts below Observations & comments to follow...

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@RyanReeves_

Ryan Reeves

2 years

Searched my database for the highest EBIT margins + 5-year sales CAGR of > 10%. The top 10 (margins/5-year CAGR %): 1.V (66/10) 2.EVO (61/56) 3.ADYEN (59/50) (53/11) 5.MSCI (53/12) 6.MKTX (48/14) 7.MCO (46/12) 8.MSFT (42/13) 9.CPRT (41/19) 10.TSM (41/14)

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

Inspired by @saxena_puru 's great "Sale is now on" chart (shares dn 27-42% over past few wks) I present "EV/Revenue through the pandemic" While EV/Rev is down similarly since Feb peaks, it's still UP A LOT from start of pandemic for most Some observations below...

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@saxena_puru

Puru Saxena

3 years

The SALE is now on - Chart showing Price % off high from @ycharts

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

@saxena_puru I don’t accuse you of anything You’ve just been observing market movements and offered your interpretation of what’s going on You’ve been generous with sharing your ideas and opinions And it’s helped a lot to contextualise what’s going on for me Thank you kindly 🙏

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

$PINS Q2 21 I've reviewed results & listened to Earnings Call To me, business is doing well despite the user number concerns TTM Rev g for US & Intnl picking up nicely See my TTM Rev g charts below & quarterly US & Intnl breakdown Strong hold for me, maybe even top up...

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

2 years

Defeating the spam bots ! That will be fantastic Congratulations @elonmusk cc : @saxena_puru , let’s see how long it takes to get the spam bots removed permanently 🤞

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

2 years

🚀💫♥️ Yesss!!! ♥️💫🚀

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

@BahamaBen9 Don’t trust it Ben I think it’s a little bounce up and then we going down again I hope I’m wrong and we just go sideways for a while or gently up so I can have a relatively easy December 😂

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@IrnestKaplan

Irnest Kaplan

3 years

The $2Trillion club $MSFT has gone up 5x ($400B -> $2T) in 5 years 38% CAGR Not bad All great companies - Tech Titans of today $MSFT, $AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN Cursor in chart below is on Jun 22, 2016 to see market cap then 👇

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