$NQ $ES $GC $CL šš
Time based liquidity (TBL), Fair Value Gaps (FVG/Inv FVG), 30 Min Opening Range Breakout (ORB). Making order out of chaos for 30+ years.šŖ
I promised to get a video out on the basics of the $ES strategy I've been sharing here since I returned. I was able to dust off the equipment & put one together tonight. The very basics with an intended audience of "newer" futures traders. Hope it helps.
I know, I know... same charts, same indicators, same boring routine -> day to day, week to week, same stuff over & over. Where's the secret sauce?!
BORING IS the secret sauce, my friends. š
Trade'm well this week!
As promised, a quick video covering the Opening Range and associated details. Combining this with the Time Based Liquidity video I shared a few weeks ago should give a solid primer on my strategy & what I'm currently sharing here on X. Hope it helps.
Putting together a video focused on using the opening range, target projections and some of the nuances. Hoping to have it out tonight or tomorrow at the latest.š¤
There are some things I refuse to let go of when it comes to the big picture view. The weekend routine still sets the tone for me to begin the week, but it's a significantly slimmed down version as compared to when I was last here. A brief reminder of some of my favorites... š§µ
Here's a look at the stripped down 5 min chart of today's $ES OR with price target projections. I know we haven't discussed it much yet, but many can trade this as a strategy all on its own. I prefer the 30 min OR on a 5 min chart. Note the levels + basic support/resistance.
It's often a good idea to keep the previous day's opening range (OR) on the chart. Those same OR levels often offer support/resistance the following session. Also, when there's very little or no time based liquidity to target, the OR 50% & 100% levels can serve that purpose.
Into the close, $ES is trading below a flat 5MA (green to yellow). ā ļø We haven't seen that since 8/8 but it's been a great run. It's also trading below intraday, 2-day & WTD VWAPs. Keep in mind, as we discussed over the weekend, $NYMO is coming off significantly overbought
$NYSI $NASI sit basically in the same spot as discussed last weekend with a hook down in place. $CPC climbing indicates fear on the rise but has yet to close above the 1.2 level. As a contrarian indicator, sentiment will typically spike at an extreme before price exhausts...
Good morning. $ES London session took out both sides of the Asian range overnight; typically, a heads up to expect increased volatility in the NY session. Midnight open 5592.25 & London high 5596.25 POI above. London low 5558.50, NY PM low 5539.50, Daily pivot 5532.75 POI lower.
I still watch the direction of the 5sma and where price is sitting in relation to it. VWAPs on the daily chart from the most recent high and the most recent relevant and price reactive low. Hat tip to the master, Brian Shannon
@alphatrends
$ES w/levels noted. More details of my model coming soon. The basics:
Red lines - London high/low
Orange lines - Asia high/low
Green lines - prior NY AM high/low
Dark blue - prior NY PM high/low
Gray - prior NY lunch high/low
Light blue - midnight open
Yellow dotted - daily pivot
Good morning. $ES sweeping stops below the London low as I type. London high 5372 & Midnight open 5355.25 POI above. Yesterday's NY PM low 5323.75, flattening 5ma near 5288 & yesterday's NY AM low 5259.75 all POI lower. It's a long way down to yesterday's low at 5182. No news.
$ES Daily, giving both bulls & bears ammunition. Price currently bumping its head against VWAP anchored to the April low (green) after holding & bouncing off YTD VWAP (orange) last week. On strength, declining VWAP off the July high (red) is a notable point of interest above.
$ES Hourly. As discussed last week, very little in the way of resistance between here and the all time high. We've tested this 5665 zone multiple times in late August; simply looking for a push through that sticks at this point.
Practice?? I'd start with $ES. Stalk the 30 Min OR b/o or the 1st 5 Min FVG after the OR is set. Target the closest TBL in the same direction. If no TBL, 50% then 100% OR targets. Aggressive stop goes < FVG; wider stop < FVG candle 1. Be mindful of R/R; different for each trader.
$ES Daily. Price sitting below relevant AVWAPs from off the recent highs/low and rebalancing the FVG from mid-August. It's quite an open window down to 5200, but this is also a level that makes sense to look for buyers to step back in before re-evaluating the potential of testing
Good morning. $ES consolidating overnight. London high 5641.25 POI above. Midnight Open 5629.25, London low 5627, Asia low 5625.75, Daily Pivot 5609, yesterday's NY PM low 5604.25, yesterday's NY AM low 5573.50 all POI lower. Ascending 5MA near 5538. No red folder news today, but
Good morning! $ES off overnight highs seen in London session & trading near yesterday's NY PM low of 5557.25. London high 5583.25 & Midnight Open 5576.50 Points of Interest (POI) on the upside. Daily Pivot 5537, yesterday's NY AM low 5526.25 POI lower. 5 MA ascending near 5547.
Correct Daily Bias ā ļø
Proper Entry/Stop ā ļø
Followed the Plan ā ļø
Lost Money š° ā ļø
$ES Tags Targets Without Me. ā ļø
Just another day at the office. Welcome to trading!
Good morning. $ES currently trading near the flat 5MA at 5633. London took out both sides of the Asia range setting up a broadening formation into NY open. Daily Pivot 5640, Midnight Open 5653 & London high 5666.25 POI above. Friday's NY PM low 5608.75 & Friday's low 5594 POI
Good morning. $ES currently trading inside yesterday's range, above a flat 5MA sitting near 5633.ā ļø Daily Pivot 5642, London high 5645.75 & yesterday's high 5669 POI above. Midnight Open 5634.50, Asia low 5626, yesterday's low 5619.75 all POI lower. Consumer Confidence at 10am.
Good morning. $ES continues to recover from yesterday's late selloff. Yesterday's high 5342 & declining 5MA (not shown) near 5378 POI above. Midnight open 5309.75, London low 5280, Daily pivot 5276.75, Asia low 5242.25 & yesterday's low 5221.75 all POI lower. No red folder news.
Good morning. $ES trading near Friday's high 5662.25 as I type. London high 5664.50 POI above. London low 5649.75, Midnight Open 5646, Asia low 5643.75, Daily Pivot 5637.50, Friday's NY PM low 5632 & ascending 5MA near 5630 all POI lower. Trade'm well this week!
Some days, I have a crystal clear bullish or bearish bias coming into a session. Other days, I'm not feeling it & expecting either chop or have no real directional bias. That's where the 30 min opening range comes into play. I use the OR break to help guide my bias.
Whose game is it? The champ,
@RealLAKnight
... thank you for taking the time to make this guy's year! Hoping to see you in action tomorrow night... YEAHHH!!
@WWEUniverse
$ES Daily updated. It may not feel like it, but all of today's price action came inside Friday's range (for $NQ too). Buyers have more work to do. We'll want to see today's inside day come out topside & price reclaim the AVWAPs descending from above (5500-5530).
$ES Daily. Price sitting below relevant AVWAPs from off the recent highs/low and rebalancing the FVG from mid-August. It's quite an open window down to 5200, but this is also a level that makes sense to look for buyers to step back in before re-evaluating the potential of testing
Good morning. $ES trending higher overnight as price reclaimed the ascending 5MA near 5615. Yesterday's NY lunch high 5633.50 & yesterday's high 5665.25 POI above. Daily Pivot 5614, Midnight Open/London low 5610, Asia low 5602.75 & yesterday's NY PM low 5582.75 POI below. Powell
For general market health, NYSI/NASI are tough to beat. My first or second day back I noted "the hook" which sets a cautious tone for me from getting too comfortable on the long side; mostly related to risk management/sizing & a note that ā¬ļø is currently big picture countertrend.
Reviewed my $ES trades from this morning. The 5 min candle at 10:30est stopped me out on initial longs but didn't give up the OR low or the daily pivot level. Jumped right back in on the next OR b/o. Pretty much a straight grind higher from there. Scaled in/out. Left a runner.
As I "mature" as a trader, I avoid volatility like the plague. I want my capital at risk in the market for the least amount of time possible. I'm not looking to score 50 or windmill dunk any longer. Instead, I'll take all the wide open layups & play All-Star caliber defense!šš
As discussed earlier, $ES is shaping up as a range bound Monday in the early going. In my intro to the futures world, this was referred to as "accumulation" as part of a "power of 3" concept; plus, get this -> AMD isn't referring to a semi stock!? I remember being super confused!
I found my own path, but I was certainly influenced by the teachings of
@I_Am_The_ICT
. One of the main reasons I came back to X after nearly 2 years away... I'm anxious to improve this model! This is still the best place to learn, if one can tune out all the nonsense & drama.
Of note... plenty of time for this to change before NY open, but note $ES (and $NQ) currently trading within yesterday's range. By nature, "inside days" set up as choppy, sideways action. Look for price to come out from inside for the larger, trending move.
Good morning. $ES strong recovery overnight currently capped by the declining 5MA near 5629. Yesterday's NY AM high 5644.50 & yesterday's high 5650.50 POI above. Daily Pivot 5612.25, London low 5593.75, Midnight Open 5589.50, yesterday's low 5576 & Asia low 5571.50 POI below.
$NYMO for overbought/oversold.
$CPC for sentiment extremes. I prefer the total ratio > 1.20 when looking for a potential bottoming/reversal. Again, bigger picture. This is not "daily bias" but more of a general backdrop of overall market conditions.
Good morning. $ES recovering overnight from yesterday's late day selloff, but still trading inside yesterday's range. Having just swept the London high & sitting on a flat 5MA near 5631; yesterday's NY PM high 5655.75 & yesterday's high 5663.75 POI above. London low & Midnight
Good morning. $ES trending higher overnight & trading just below yesterday's high of 5655.25. Daily Pivot 5636.75, London low 5636.50, Midnight Open 5633.75, Asia low 5631.50, yesterday's NY PM low 5626 & yesterday's low 5613.50 all POI lower. Ascending 5MA comes in near 5605.
$ES Daily chart. Price had no interest in forming a VWAP pinch last week & instead blasted through VWAP from off the high (red). 5600+ may offer a pause as price approaches the FVG from mid-July & the August high (5600.75). Buyers in control above VWAP off the Aug low (green).
Good morning. $ES drifting higher overnight currently trading above yesterday's high. London high 5577.50 POI above. Midnight Open just below at 5567.25, London low 5562, Asia low 5554.50, Daily Pivot 5513.50, yesterday's NY PM low 5501.75, ascending 5MA near 5489 & yesterday's
$ES tapping into the overnight/London high. Additional points of interest (POI) into NY AM... daily pivot at 5506.25, London low 5498.25, Asian low 5479.50. Midnight open near 5490. Still inside yesterday's price action, so yesterday's high/low also POI. CC/Jolts data at 10am
If you're thinking... awe man, he's trading futures now. I don't/can't trade $ES $NQ etc. You can. Anyone can. Plus, compared to CANSLIM, momentum, VCPs and all that those strategies entail, futures are a piece of cake. You'll see. š
Into the close, $ES finding buyers near the 5MA. Note the sweep of the London high right off the open marked the high of the session. This price action is very healthy for working off the overbought $NYMO condition as discussed yesterday.
$ES currently tapping into the London high + yesterday's NY PM high. London low 5507.25, midnight open 5497.25, Daily pivot 5477.75, Asia low 5475.50 all POI lower. I tend to tread very lightly, if at all, ahead of J Pow this afternoon; heavy red folder news today. Happy Fed Day!
Good morning. $ES stair stepping higher overnight & trading just above yesterday's high. Midnight Open 5605, London low 5601.75, Asia low 5599.25, Daily Pivot 5583.25, yesterday's NY PM low 5578 & yesterday's low 5540.25 all POI lower. Ascending 5MA comes in much lower near 5507.
Then, it was explained as Asia = accumulation, London = manipulation, NY = distribution and it finally clicked. It's applicable to all timeframes, but this is when it finally got through to me. For those interested, here's the AMD primer from the source.
Good morning. $ES solid bounce off Daily Pivot here (5371.50) after pushing higher overnight. London high 5401.50 POI above. Midnight open 5375, Asia low 5367, yesterday's NY PM low 5356.25 & yesterday's NY AM low 5348 POI lower. Ascending 5 MA currently sitting at 5324. Of note,
$ES continuation lower overnight ahead of NFP this morning. 5439.50 London high, 5442.50 midnight open, 5464.50 Asia high, 5485.70 yesterday's NY PM high all POI before daily pivot at 5508.50. Yesterday's action sliced through all prior POI lower highlighted throughout the week.
š Holding the line. Inside days following a large range day not typically the best for intraday trading ā ļø... but which way does price come out? That's the move worth participating in. We'll see how it plays out...
Happy Fed Day! $ES consolidating overnight as London takes out both side of the Asia range setting up a broadening formation into Powell & friends this afternoon (2pm). London high 5711 & yesterday's high 5737 POI above. Daily Pivot 5705, Midnight Open 5703, London low 5698.25 &
@shrederickson
@Trader_Benny
Found it. After watching this one again, I feel bad for sending you the other FVG video first! š¤£ However, to be fair, I was always sent to the original source when I was learning.
Having said that, here's the clearly explained & simplified version.
Good morning. $ES Quiet consolidation overnight & currently sitting just below yesterday's NY PM high of 5632.25. Yesterday's AM high 5643.75 another POI above. Midnight Open 5626.50, Daily Pivot 5623.75, London low 5619.75, yesterday's NY PM low 5611.50 all POI lower. Ascending
$NYSI $NASI climbing as $NYMO again pops into overbought territory. Choppy action last week worked off overbought conditions but Friday's post-Fed strength pushed the oscillator back into overbought (> 50). Depending on timeframe, might be worth watching in the short term.
Of note, YTD AVWAP sits just above FVGs dating back to May. Note price filling in the inefficiencies one level at a time as it works its way back down. In many ways, price is mirroring the action from the buy side of the curve up, while working its way down the sell side. š
Odds & ends...
*I prefer the 5 Min timeframe, but this is highly individual. 1 Min, 3 Min, 10 Min... no problem. Find a comfort zone.
*If TBL target is not hit by noon, consider taking profits or tightening up stops ahead of the lunch hour.
*Try to be aware of Daily Pivot levels
Ideal scenario now would be a lunch session retrace setting up a strong PM session and potential bullish outside day. Just thinking aloud here and continuing with my thoughts from earlier. $ES $NQ š
$ES $NQ have both come out from inside in the pre-market. All of the downside liquidity mentioned in the beginning of this thread has now been taken. Ideal scenario would have them come for the levels noted higher at some point today. We'll see what the OR and FVG serve up.
$ES Hourly view. Taking one level at a time. Symmetry between sell side and buy side becomes more pronounced with this view vs a glance at the daily. Price now digging into the FVG from 8/1. Noting that specific candle and the general structure between here and 5600.
$NYSI $NASI still trending lower but keep an eye on $NYSI to be the first to make the turn back north if buyers continue to step up. $CPC tagged the 1.2+ level last Monday, which indicates bearish sentiment extreme & often precedes the turn in price momentum.
Good morning. $ES trading relatively flat before NY open after finding support near Daily Pivot (5567) overnight. Midnight open 5585.75 & Asia high 5592 POI above. Daily Pivot, London low 5565.25, Friday's NY AM low 5547.50 & Friday's low 5536.50 all POI lower. Ascending 5 MA
@JonahLupton
As you get a little older, you'll require more sleep simply to keep the pace up... and to keep the immune system boosted, so as not to get sick with every community acquired virus going around. I don't agree with everything in this book, but a good read on sleep (& the importance
Good Morning. $ES currently pulling back after sweeping yesterday's highs in the London session. Midnight Open 5642.50, London low 5641.50, ascending 5MA 5636, Daily Pivot 5635.25, Asia low 5634.25 & yesterday's low 5611.50 all POI lower. $NVDA earnings after the close. š
Same $ES chart with OR, but this time I've layered in the FVGs from the NY PM session. Note price respecting the FVGs on the way down as we once again test the 100% OR target in the Asian session tonight...
If you're having trouble seeing displacement & FVGs, try this indicator to train your eye. Some said the other indicator I shared made charts too cluttered. This one simply highlights the displacement candle in yellow. Eventually, you'll start seeing it...
Is that double inside I see on $NQ? š My timeframe is now significantly shorter, so I'll avoid trading inside days entirely following a large range day. This helps me step aside during choppy action. The big move I prefer to be involved in is the one when inside comes out. š
Good morning. $ES consolidating overnight as London price action traded inside the Asian range. Midnight open at 5230.50, London high 5237.25, Asia high 5239.50, Daily Pivot 5261.25, NY PM high 5292.25, declining 5ma near 5314, NY lunch high 5323.75, yesterday's high 5359.25 all
Good morning. $ES drifting lower overnight. Asia high 5537.50, Daily Pivot 5576, yesterday's NY PM high 5579.25, declining 5MA near 5614 & yesterday's NY AM high 5630 all POI above. Midnight Open 5515 & London low 5506.75 POI below. Job Openings data at 10am.
A peek at $ES overnight action tells me we're currently just below midnight open (light blue). The London high (red) + Asia high (orange) are upside points of interest (POI) if not swept before the NY open. To the downside, the London low and daily pivot at 5490.75 are POI. š
$NYSI $NASI both moving higher. Notable outperformance from $NYSI when zoomed out, relatively speaking. $NYMO back to neutral from overbought. All of which favors upside continuation in the short term.
$ES Daily updated. Appears only a really bad unemployment claims number tomorrow morning stands between here and 5600+. That also assumes "bad news" is once again considered bad news. Low resistance from a technical standpoint on strength from here. We shall see...
If you prefer the deep dive FVG tutorial directly from the source, this is the one...
Just a heads up... it's not nearly as complicated as he makes it here. š
Good morning. $ES climbing overnight. Friday's high 5532.50 & declining 5MA near 5534 POI sitting much higher. Daily Pivot 5448.75, London low 5437.50, Midnight Open 5435.75, Asia low 5417.25 & Friday's low 5394 POI below. No red folder news until CPI on Wednesday.
$ES Daily updated. Keeping this š§µ active. Solid recovery today as $ES prints a hammer in front of CPI data tomorrow morning. Back above the psychological 5500 level but still need another push above the VWAP from off the recent high (white). Making progress.
$ES Daily updated. It may not feel like it, but all of today's price action came inside Friday's range (for $NQ too). Buyers have more work to do. We'll want to see today's inside day come out topside & price reclaim the AVWAPs descending from above (5500-5530).
Good morning. $ES trending lower overnight having just swept yesterday's low. Midnight Open 5504, London high 5506.50, Asia high 5511, Daily Pivot 5519.75, yesterday's NY PM high 5531.25 & yesterday's high 5557.25 all POI above. London low 5466.50 POI below. Declining 5MA comes
$NYSI $NASI both moving lower after steady selling pressure last week. All is not lost, however, as $NYMO is now moving into oversold territory and very close to the -50 level that has led to rallies.
$NYSI $NASI sit basically in the same spot as discussed last weekend with a hook down in place. $CPC climbing indicates fear on the rise but has yet to close above the 1.2 level. As a contrarian indicator, sentiment will typically spike at an extreme before price exhausts...
$ES chopping around within the 30 min opening range (OR). 1st FVG after OR prints red. Not much to get excited about directionally at the moment as the meat of the move came overnight.
$ES Daily. Mentioned late last week to watch for the break above AVWAP from off Monday's high & we got that on Friday. $ES again bumping its head against the FVG from mid-July. Of note, not shown here, but Friday was an inside day for $NQ while $ES poked higher late in the day.
$NYMO remains neutral but creeping closer to the overbought 50+ level. Depending on timeframe, something to potentially be mindful of if we see continued strength early in the week.
The growth stock equivalents...
Accumulation = consolidation, Manipulation = false/shakeout move, Distribution = trending move.
Admittedly, the terms took some getting used to.
Into the close, $ES trading like $NQ today. $ES usually is much more respective of my levels while $NQ is always the wild child...but this is why my model says to avoid trading on the day before NFP. Not taking out yesterday's high this morning before reversing lower is a good
@JaviCharts
All good, thanks. If there was an "event" it was Elon taking over and the note that he was shutting down Revue. I was in need of a break and took that as a sign to step back, reevaluate and find some better balance in life. Normal stuff. Nothing overly dramatic. š
$ES climbing overnight but rollover will skew many of our usual data points today. I'll tend to lean heavier on the Opening Range this morning. London low 5698.50, Midnight Open 5693.50, Asia low 5690.50 POI lower. Retail Sales at 8:30am.
Good morning. $ES looking to sweep London/Asia highs (5492) as I type after sweeping the overnight lows earlier this morning. Sets up as a potential volatile session (broadening formation; high emotion). Midnight Open 5490.75, Daily Pivot 5467.75, yesterday's NY PM low 5464 & NY
$ES Daily. Relevant VWAPs off the recent high + recent lows show buyers firmly in control. Notable FVG near 5670, but as I've been pointing out, very little in the way of resistance between here and the all time high.
The above help set the general tone for me. This is not "daily bias"... which describes how I'm leaning & looking to attack a specific session. Instead, the big picture view would tell me longs are currently countertrend & I'd want to size down or trade micros. Risk management!