Felix Tintelnot @FelixTintelnot Twitter profile

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

I am pleased to see VP candidate @JDVance is engaging with our research. A thread below offering comments and implications for Trump’s tariff proposals.

Justin Wolfers

@JustinWolfers

22 days

Senator @JDVance , as you requested I've done a bit more digging into the talking points on tariffs we were provided by industry-funded lobby groups. Unfortunately they do not meet our usual high standards for evidence.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 months

Jonathan Eaton was an exceptional scholar and a wonderful mentor. Cecilia Fieler and I wrote an intellectual obituary describing his academic work and legacy that was just posted on VoxEU.

Jonathan Eaton, 1950-2024

Jonathan Eaton, who passed away in February 2024, was a pioneering scholar in international economics. This column outlines his many contributions to our understanding of the global economy, includ...

cepr.org

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

In my view, one of the best and most influential Covid papers out there. Based largely on thoughtful and careful data analysis.

Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel)

@TradeDiversion

4 years

Now forthcoming in @JPubEcon : "How many jobs can be done at home?" with @BrentNeiman . Manuscript: Replication package: Brent and I wrote this paper entirely from our homes.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

Brad Setzler & I are excited our paper on foreign multinationals in the US has been accepted by the QJE. Key questions: How much more does a worker earn when hired by a foreign multinational? How are domestic firms and their workers in nearby locations affected by foreign firms?

QJE

@QJEHarvard

3 years

Recently accepted by #QJE , “The Effects of Foreign Multinationals on Workers and Firms in the United States,” by Setzler and Tintelnot ( @FelixTintelnot ):

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

Our paper Trade and Domestic Production Networks recently got accepted by the @RevEconStud . While you may have seen a previous version, the paper has changed a lot over the last three years, becoming more descriptive and more concise.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

1.Jonathan Dingel and I wrote a new paper on Spatial Economics in Granular Settings. See here:

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

All in all, our research suggests that an across-the-board 20 percent increase in tariffs on all countries can have large effects on inflation for American consumers.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

It's great to see our paper on the production relocation and consumer price effects of tariffs in print at the AER. Here is a summary by the AEA from an interview with my co-author @Aaronflaaen .

The price of trade wars

The 2018 tariffs caused some unintended harm to US consumers.

www.aeaweb.org

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

It has taken as a very long time to complete this paper, but I believe it was very much worthwhile. Joint work with Emmanuel Dhyne, Ken Kikkawa, Toshiaki Komatsu, and Magne Mogstad

NBER

@nberpubs

2 years

Belgian firms pass on a large share of a foreign demand shock to their domestic suppliers, face upward-sloping labor supply curves, and have sizable fixed overhead costs in labor, from Dhyne, Kikkawa, Komatsu, Mogstad, and @FelixTintelnot

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

8 months

New short paper with great co-authors. The theoretical setup generalizes the one of my job market paper from 10+ years ago, published as Tintelnot (2017). Here, it is admissible that export-platform plants are complements.

NBER

@nberpubs

8 months

Deriving a simple condition that determines whether a multinational firm's plants are substitutes or complements in a model export-platform foreign direct investment, from @pol_antras , @evgenii_fadeev , @Tfpiasecki , and @FelixTintelnot

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

I am reading job market files today and am thoroughly enjoying it so far. Great new work on trade and spatial questions and in adjacent fields.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

5 years

Our paper on the effects of trade policy on production relocation and consumer prices - in the context of the washing machine industry - is forthcoming in the American Economic Review.

AEA Journals

@AEAjournals

5 years

Forthcoming in the AER: "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of U.S. Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines" by Aaron Flaaen, Ali Hortaçsu, and Felix Tintelnot.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

We also found an equivalent price increase for dryers (a complementary good! see the paper); taken together, this implies roughly full pass-through of the tariffs to US consumers. Our study, published in 2020, focused on the impact of these tariffs in their first year.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

1/n New paper with @pol_antras , @Tfpiasecki , and @AgusGutierrez92 . Our work was motivated by the recent US-China trade war: “Does it matter whether tariffs are placed on final or intermediate goods?”

Teresa Fort

@Tfpiasecki

2 years

Excited about a new NBER working paper that studies the distinct welfare effects of input versus final goods tariffs with @pol_antras @FelixTintelnot and @AgusGutierrez92 1/5

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

Will washing machines become the next pick-up trucks, with high tariff protection for 50+ years? Since 2012 washing machines imports into the United States have been significantly restricted.

Washing machines reveal how trade and competition are linked

The saga of Whirlpool’s efforts to secure protection

www.economist.com

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

However, the 2018 global tariffs resulted in more dramatic increases in consumer prices. We found roughly a 10 percent price increase on washers, compared to oven ranges, dishwashers, and refrigerators.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

In joint work with Ali Hortacsu and @Aaronflaaen , our paper examined in detail the price effects from a global 20 percent increase in tariffs on a particular product: washing machines

The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines

(July 2020) - We estimate the price effect of US import restrictions on washers. The 2012 and 2016 antidumping duties against South Korea and China were accompanied by downward or minor price...

www.aeaweb.org

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

I am thrilled about this placement outcome for @LeviGCrews . Go ahead and invite him for your seminars, he has a great paper to present...

Levi Crews

@LeviGCrews

2 years

Thrilled to be joining @UCLA Econ as an AP in 2024 after spending next year as a @IESPrinceton fellow. Big thanks to everyone who had a hand in making it happen 🙏

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

A second point: In February 2023 the washer tariffs expired. What happened in 2023? We see a large decline in consumer prices for laundry equipment, roughly around 13 percent. The price of other appliances fell by 3 percent over the same period.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

In 2018, prices for washers and dryers rose by 10%, without noticeably altering the trend. By 2020, prices for laundry equipment were 10% higher than they would have been without the tariff-induced price shift.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

5 years

An export ban on medical equipment is short-sighted. From both economic and humanitarian perspectives.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

A great hire!

UChicago Economics

@UChi_Economics

4 years

Economist Esteban Rossi-Hansberg has been appointed the Glen A. Lloyd Distinguished Service Professor at @UChicago where he will join the faculty of the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics this summer.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

@JDVance points out that after two years, the price of laundry equipment has fallen to its pre-tariff level. @JustinWolfers is right to point out that even over the longer horizon the price of laundry equipment has risen more than the price of other appliances.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

Come join the vibrant trade and spatial economics research community a @UChi_Economics and work as a research professional at @BeckerFriedman with me and @HansbergRossi

Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

@HansbergRossi

3 years

If you are interested in working with me and ⁦ @FelixTintelnot ⁩ for the next two years, please apply. The academic environment at BFI is simply fantastic.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

11 months

Nice summary by @TradeDiversion of our latest version of Spatial Economics for Granular Settings (September 2023). See below.

Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel)

@TradeDiversion

11 months

🚨 Spatial Economics for Granular Settings (2023) w/ @FelixTintelnot 🚨 🆕 insights for users of quantitative spatial models: - distinguishing exact hat algebra from calibration - introducing convenient data-smoothing procedures - quantifying uncertainty due to idiosyncrasies 🧵

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

Congratulations, Ralph! Great news for the WTO.

Economics at Zurich

@econ_uzh

2 years

🎉Congratulations!🎉 Ralph Ossa will be joining the @WTO as Chief Economist as of January 1, 2023. Proud to have an Economist from @UZH_en in this important role and delighted that he will remain affiliated with our Department. All the best, Ralph! #Pioneeringeconomics #WTO

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

We found that in prior years, when tariffs were placed on an individual country alone, such as on washers coming from China in 2016, the price effects were muted; companies could just relocate to other export platform countries.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

Two additional points are worth making. First, consider the longer time series of the CPI of laundry equipment. You can see a clear downward trend in laundry equipment prices since late 2012, with laundry equipment prices falling around 5 percent per year.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

Thanks to @davefettig at @BeckerFriedman for producing a short summary of our paper!

Becker Friedman Institute for Economics

@BeckerFriedman

2 years

FINDING: US multinational firms are more likely to import not only from the countries in which they have affiliates, but also from other countries within their affiliates’ region. More by @pol_antras , @evgeni_fadeev , @tfpiasecki , and @felixtintelnot here:

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

The Trump campaign proposes a 10 to 20 percent tariffs on all countries exporting goods to the United States.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

Very proud of @DrGonzalezAL . Fascinating work. I look forward to her other coming papers on Saudi Arabia and female employment.

AEA Journals

@AEAjournals

4 years

Forthcoming in the AER: "Misperceived Social Norms: Women Working Outside the Home in Saudi Arabia" by Leonardo Bursztyn, Alessandra L. González, and David Yanagizawa-Drott.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

21 days

The BLS price index takes into account quality improvements, which – all else equal—lead to declines in measured price indexes. Quality was indeed improving over this period – such as increases to washer capacity. Tariffs didn't change the fact that washers are getting bigger.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

1. @LeviGCrews JMP: ``A Dynamic Spatial Knowledge Economy"

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

3. Younghun Shim JMP: ``From Adoption to Innovation: State-Dependent Technology Policy in Developing Countries"

Younghun Shim

younghunshim.com

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

Congratulations to @TradeDiversion and @newyorkonomics !

Journal of International Economics

@JIntlEcon

2 years

The 12th paper to win the JIE's Bhagwati Award for International Trade is "The Comparative Advantage of Cities" by Donald Davis @newyorkonomics and Jonathan Dingel @TradeDiversion , which appeared in the JIE in Volume 123.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

2. @AgusGutierrez92 JMP: ``Labor Market Power and the Pro-competitive Gains from Trade"

Agustín Gutiérrez

My name is Agustín Gutiérrez. I'm an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. My research interested are international trade, macroeconomics, and...

www.gutierrezagustin.com

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

What are the effects of foreign multinationals on workers and firms in the U.S.? A compressed and non-technical summary of our @QJEHarvard article with Brad Setzler at @micro_econ

MicroEconInsights

@micro_econ

2 years

New from Bradley Setzler @PennStateEcon & @FelixTintelnot "What happens when foreign firms expand local employment?" A recent study uses U.S. tax records on firms and workers to investigate how the actions of multinational firms affect host locations.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

Wise words by @PennyG_Yale

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 months

Thank you, Jonathan. RIP.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

We analyzed the various forms of restrictions and their effects in

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

What a loss...

Stefanie Stantcheva

@S_Stantcheva

4 years

Rest in peace Emmanuel Farhi. A brilliant researcher, an insatiable mind, and a wonderful person & friend. Au revoir, cher ami.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

Not in my pile (because we can't hire them due to conflict-of-interest rules), but very highly recommended are the following three students (in alphabetical order):

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

13.Moreover, since our granular framework coincides with the standard model in the limit, it can be used to quantify the role of granularity in economic outcomes and assess the (un)suitability of the continuum approximation.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

1. Most firms use a lot of foreign inputs, but only a small number of firms show that dependence through direct imports.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

7.Every job created by a foreign multinational generates: - 0.5 jobs at local domestic firms - $13,400 in wage gains, two-thirds from indirect effects Lastly, foreign multinationals extract much of the local surplus they generate via job subsidies.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

1 year

Looking forward!

CESifo

@CESifoNetwork

1 year

Today and tomorrow: CESifo Area Conference on #Global Economy 2023. We welcome all participants 🤗. Keynote lecturers: @FelixTintelnot and Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe @UniOslo - scientific organizer: Peter Egger @ETH_en

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

5. How much shocks in foreign markets affect the sales of a firm depends on how much the firm ultimately sells to these markets, not whether these sales are from direct or indirect exports.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

11 months

@borusyak I go beyond the standard textbook in my trade undergraduate class, especially in the 2nd half of the course. My impression is that students appreciate it.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

6.These indirect effects of foreign multinationals on domestic firms are greater for - domestic firms in the tradable sector - domestic firms with 100+ employees - high-wage workers at domestic firms However, no benefit for low-wage workers.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

See here for the full paper: Let me briefly summarize the paper below.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

Congratulations, @GitaGopinath . Great news for the IMF.

Pol Antras

@pol_antras

3 years

Very sad news for Harvard, but congratulations, @GitaGopinath , and best of luck! We will miss you. 👇👇👇 First Deputy Managing Director Geoffrey Okamoto to Leave IMF, Gita Gopinath to Be IMF’s New First Deputy Managing Director

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

4.Indirect effects: we leverage spatial clustering of foreign multinationals by country of origin and country-specific shocks to construct a shift-share instrument. For example, Canadian-owned firms disproportionately cluster along the Northern border.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

They come with very high praise. Please email me directly if I can provide any further information about the candidates.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

@MacroMatthias @BeckerFriedman @UChi_Economics Welcome! Great that you are here!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

3. It has long been posited that high-skilled workers benefit more from foreign investment. We provide the first systematic evidence in favor of this hypothesis in the U.S. We find the wage premium ranges from 20% for highest-skilled workers to 0% for least-skilled.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

5.A 1 percentage point increase in employment at foreign firms leads to positive effects at domestic firms in the same commuting zone: - 0.96% increase in value added - 0.53% increase in employment - 0.15% increase in wages for continuing workers

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

@makro_philip He will be greatly missed. Terrible news.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

8.We thank the editor, Larry Katz, and five referees for their very valuable feedback and suggestions which have greatly improved our paper.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@imanelici Congratulations! Wonderful news.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

@FedericoHuneeus @BPellegrino_UMD Congrats. Impressive schedule and agenda.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

2.Multinational firms owned in high GDP per capita countries - pay higher premiums to their workers - disproportionately hire skilled workers. For example, firms owned in New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the UK pay wages 10% more than domestic firms.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

@johnvanreenen @nberpubs Thanks John. And many thanks for your helpful comments.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

@emilyjblanchard Congrats!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

5 years

Latest version is available here:

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@zivoren @TradeDiversion Thank you very much @zivoren .

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@SMUEconDept @UChi_Economics Thanks for having me. It was great fun.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

8 months

If the within firm elasticity of labor substitution across the MNE's plants is smaller than the cross-firm elasticity of demand, complementarity forces dominate.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

7.First, the granular model can generate zeros as outcomes for residence-workplace pairs without assuming infinite commuting costs.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

10 months

@a_auclert @Stanford Congrats, Adrien! Well deserved.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

@borusyak @dix_rafael Very interesting... Congrats and thanks for sharing.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

5 years

@RickEcon @BakerInstitute @RiceUniversity @OSE_Lab Great. Makes sense.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

5.The assumption we make in the theory is that individuals have continuum-case rational expectations about prices. In other words, they take the limit case of the number of individuals going to infinity, for their expectations about prices.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

2.The paper is motivated by the fact that while there is a growing body of fine spatial data, mapping these data to conventional models assuming a continuum of individuals at every location is problematic due to selection and overfitting issues (more on this below).

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

5 years

@RickEcon @BakerInstitute @RiceUniversity Congratulations, Rick! Thanks so much for the great training you provide to students and the many public goods you create. A big loss for UChicago.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@tradewartracker Thank you, Mike!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

1. Direct effects: A worker in the US earns about 7 percent more on average when moving from a domestic to a foreign-owned firm. This premium does not arise from the foreignness of the multinationals per se, as domestic-owned multinationals pay a similar wage premium.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

5 years

@BachmannRudi Cool! Macht so weiter...

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

@instrumenthull Congratulations! Well deserved!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

2/n In the data, import tariffs often are higher on final goods than on intermediate goods. The main explanation has been lobbying by downstream firms. In this paper, we show that there is an efficiency rationale for this phenomenon.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

5 years

Would be better to put efforts on banning the export ban of medical equipments.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

We use Belgian VAT data on firm-to-firm transactions combined with firm-level international trade data to study the direct and indirect participation of firms in foreign trade. We find that ...

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

3. While directly exporting and importing firms are larger, the non-direct importers or exporters do not have to be large to obtain a lot of inputs from abroad or see most of their sales going to foreign markets.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

@JoeVavra Yes, we waited around 1.5 hours. Fingers crossed.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

@ALashkaripour @IUBloomington Congrats!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@borusyak Important work. Thanks Kirill!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

@evgenii_fadeev @DukeFuqua @HarvardHBS Congratulations, @evgenii_fadeev . Great news for you and Duke!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@tradewartracker Thank you, Mike!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

2 years

@johannesmboehm Congratulations, wonderful news!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

@AgusGutierrez92 @utditella Congrats!!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@IvanWerning Note that these models feature discrete choices of locations, so with finite people the local labor supply curves would be ugly step functions. Our timing assumption makes local labor supply curves vertical in second stage, so it's an easy-to-solve trade model.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

9 years

My new @nberpubs working paper with Kerem Cosar, Paul Grieco, and Shengyu Li: http://t.co/IiMNyNx2GJ

What Drives Home Market Advantage?

www.nber.org

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

Interesting work by @JohnRGrigsby and co-authors.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@autoregress Thanks a lot, Peter!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

3 years

@cailin_slattery Congratulations!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@MartaPaczos Thank you!

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

6.Though we invoke the law of large numbers to get tractable price beliefs, the continuum and granular model differ in fundamental ways:

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

4.1. Do individuals internalize that their own residence and work-place location decisions affect prices? 2. How do individuals form expectations about prices that are influenced by other agents’ decisions?

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

1 year

@TrebAllen Awesome.

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Felix Tintelnot

@FelixTintelnot

4 years

@IvanWerning Yes - still learning how to express myself in tweets. :-)

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