Cern Basher @CernBasher Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Cern Basher

@CernBasher

18,787

Followers

369

Following

1,460

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9,227

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Playing with ideas. Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Brilliant Advice - My posts here are Not Financial Advice

Sarasota, FL

https://t.co/2ebWiFsIbf

Joined March 2011

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

5 months

For those that may have missed my earlier posts on humanoid bots, here's a compendium of some relevant posts... a 23 part thread... 1) A deflation machine 2) An economic reboot 3) Humanoid bot motto 4) Bot napkin math at massive scale 5) Bot market vs EV market 6) Humanoid bots

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

15 days

Elon Musk's companies make progress...

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

16 days

We, Progress Tesla - We, Robot xAI - We, Compute X Corp - We, Connect SpaceX - We, Explore Neuralink - We, Think The Boring Company - We, Move Kristian's post below highlights how the "synergistic flywheel of the sum of Elon’s companies grows over the next couple of decades,

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

1 month

My son’s reaction to seeing our new Cybertruck…

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

4 months

$25 Trillion Market Cap just from Bots - Why I Think Elon is Off by an Order of Magnitude Yesterday, Elon took us through the math of how he arrives at a potential valuation of $25 trillion just for Optimus: 1) The bot industry could build 1 billion bots per year and if Tesla

@herbertong

Herbert Ong

4 months

Elon Musk Talks $TSLA Optimus Robots' Deployment at 2024 Annual Shareholder Meeting! • Tesla's Optimus robots are currently in action at their Fremont Factory. These robots handle cells and place them in shipping containers. • Elon Musk anticipates having over a thousand

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

10 months

Imagine the affordability of leasing or renting a Tesla Bot once Tesla achieves large-scale production... Picture this: a Tesla Bot could be yours for as little as $40 per day. With bot working tirelessly for 16 hours a day, the cost breaks down to a mere $2.50 per hour. It's

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

21 days

ThX Elon Almost one year ago my son and I got to see the Cybertruck with our own eyes - we posted a picture of us next to it (see Nov post below). My son thought it was the coolest thing he's ever seen. And just two weeks ago we got our very own Cybertruck! I didn't tell him

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

11 months

Tesla inspires the next generation with the new Cybertruck! He asked if he could get a robot 🤖 to clean his room!

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Cern Basher

20 days

At least Elon is keeping our expectations low...

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

20 days

This will be one for the history books

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Cern Basher

6 months

Robotaxi Implications: Second and Third order effects Here's how I see it... 1) Initially the Robotaxi undercuts Uber/Lift. This is easy pickings. 2) Then the Robotaxi undercuts vehicle ownership - increasingly leading people to ditch their vehicles. If the vast majority of

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

1 year

On Investor Day a few months ago, Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla's CFO, mentioned that Tesla plans on spending $150 to $175 billion by 2030 to build factories so they can make 20 million vehicles and 1,000 gigawatt hours of battery storage per year. Currently, Tesla has built the capacity

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

1 month

A Message to Tesla Investors Recently, I received this reply to one of my posts: "I don't think I can mentally or emotionally deal with it anymore. Maybe foolishly waiting for 10/10 to make a move, though at this point I'm sick of predictions and missed timelines." As someone

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

1 month

Tesla's Major Stock Moves - Two Big Gains Came Quickly First TSLA Epoch The stock made a new high on 1/28/2013 at a split adjusted price of $2.53 and by 9/30/2013 it rose to $12.89 - for a 5x gain. Second TSLA Epoch The stock bottomed on 6/3/2019 at a split adjusted price of

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Cern Basher

1 month

Cybertruck conversation with an almost 7-year old My daughter: “Are we going to keep it forever, or are we just renting?” Me: “It’s ours” Daughter: “Yay!” @cybertruck

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

11 months

Is Tesla an Auto Company or an AI-powered Robot Company? The answer depends on whether you’re looking at today versus the future. Or whether you rent ("trade") or own ("buy and hold") the stock. Currently, Tesla derives most of its revenues from selling EVs, as the company will

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

10 months

Is Tesla having an impact? You betcha! With more than 5.5 million Teslas sold since 2012 here's a rough estimate* of the annualized impact of all those Teslas: 1) 2.3 billion fewer gallons of gas consumed. With a corresponding reduction in carbon emissions, noise and brake

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

4 months

Two takeaways from Elon's comments on 12.4.2 (see image)... 1) Training AI is not so straightforward - there's some trial and error. Tesla is still figuring it out. 2) AI doesn't learn in a linear way - there can be exponential jumps in its capabilities. We all could be

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

9 months

Tesla - What Wall Street is Intentionally Missing... ... and how Time Arbitrage is your friend. As we all know, Wall Street views Tesla as an auto company, with some energy storage on the side. They make projections about global EV adoption, Tesla's market share, profit margins

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

1 year

Let's have some fun "valuing" Tesla FSD + Autonomy... ... Introducing the "CERN" Model for Tesla - a Conceived Estimate of Robotaxi Network. Let's look at just the potential value of Full Self Driving "FSD" software + Autonomy. (Note: I say "potential" - as this isn't a company

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

4 months

Apple vs Tesla - something to think about... Let's say there are about 1.4 billion active iPhones in the world. All these phones generate annual revenue of about $400 billion per year - or about $285 of revenue per active phone per year (including sales of replacement phones).

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

1 year

Who is better at running Tesla, Wall Street or @elonmusk ? Much hot air has been released by the yammering heads on CNBC over Tesla’s declining auto gross margins. Tesla’s gross margin – the profit the company garnered after the costs associated with producing and marketing its

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

19 days

We've all been missing something very important. And that's GM's role in helping to bring the world to zero emissions. No, it's not by making and selling EVs. They've pursued a brave alternative approach... one of just running the company into the ground. If you sell fewer

@alojoh

AJ

19 days

This is General Motors' global market share as disclosed by the company. Can anyone see a trend in these numbers? @GM

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Cern Basher

4 months

@elonmusk Excellent news! Now let’s focus on FSD/Cybercab and Optimus!

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Cern Basher

1 month

What Wall Street will miss with Tesla's 4680 Battery Ramp In just 101 days Tesla has produced 50 million 4680 batteries for a lifetime total of 100 million. This means that Tesla produced an average of 495,000 per day (blue bars in the chart). But Tesla probably didn't start

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

1 month

4680 Battery Ramp - Better than it Looks! Over the last 101 days Tesla has made about 50 million 4680 batteries - this implies an average battery production of about 495,000 per day. But that's an average of the last 101 days. It doesn't tell you where they entered and, more

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

3 months

Peter Diamandis with Cathie Wood - "Tesla is the unsung hero of the decade ahead" Peter - "In the next 10 years we are going to see as much progress as we've seen in the past century." Cathie - "The equity markets mosey along like nothing much is going to change...these

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

7 months

"And we will license the tech to other car companies" - Elon Musk Here's how I'm thinking about it... Let's assume the two parties are Ford and Tesla. If I'm Ford: I want my customers to use FSD because it helps me sell more vehicles and helps my customers see the Ford

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

7 months

@WholeMarsBlog And we will license the tech to other car companies

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

4 months

I think Elon is saying: Information Compression Efficiency: This refers to how effectively an AI model can compress or simplify the information it learns without losing important details. It's about how the model manages to represent complex data with fewer parameters while

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

4 months

@CernBasher @BeerandTesla Yeah, so long as the information compression efficiency is held reasonably constant, a higher parameter count is a representation of how well it understands the nuances of reality

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Cern Basher

6 months

For those that may have missed my earlier posts on Tesla's Robotaxi future, here's a compendium of the relevant posts... 1) Robotaxi Implications 2) What happens to the value of existing Tesla EVs 3) Saving lives and saving $340 billion/yr 4) Transformation from an Auto company

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Cern Basher

6 months

When people say that Elon has "lost all credibility" ... this makes me think that they are using the wrong word. Credibility definition: "the quality of being believable or worthy of trust." Elon has more credibility than any other CEO I can think of. Of course, one can

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

3 months

Tesla - Ignore it All! 1) Tesla reports record Regulatory Credits - "ignore them, they will go away one day" 2) Tesla reports record Energy revenue - "it's too small to matter, Tesla is a car company" 3) Tesla reports that they are building capacity in existing factories to

@CernBasher

Cern Basher

3 months

Tesla - What's Better: Autos vs. Energy vs. Robotaxi vs. Bots? Answer: You'll soon be calling 911 (foreshadowing)... Okay, put yourself in Elon's shoes - you can make autos, or your can make battery storage products, or you can operate a robotaxi network, or you can offer

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Cern Basher

9 months

Tesla - A Day in the Life On an average day in Q4 2023 Tesla... Made 5,380 vehicles. Sold 5,266 vehicles. Produced $273 million in revenue. Generated $47 million in operating cash flow. Spent $25 million building new factories and buying new equipment. Generated $22 million

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

19 days

WE, ROBOT 10-10 Bingo Card For all of us who didn't get an invite to Tesla's Oct 10th event, here's an event Bingo card so you can play along at home...

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Cern Basher

1 year

How is Tesla tracking against their "we will grow annual deliveries by 50% per year target"? It was set at the end of 2020, just after Tesla delivered about 500,000 vehicles - 499,647 to be precise. As of Q3 2023 the 50% per year target would mean that Tesla needed to deliver

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Cern Basher

1 year

I think @BrianFeroldi observations regarding Tesla are fair: (Beginning of Brian's quote)"... we've noticed a lot of misunderstanding about changes in Tesla's strategy over the past year -- namely, its price reductions. Some investors think it's a bullish sign ("Tesla is playing

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Cern Basher

9 days

Tesla 10-10 Event - Sell on the News? Will investors sell Tesla stock after the 10-10 We, Robot Event? Absolutely, that is quite possible. The market may sell the news, but that won't be indicative of anything. Apple first unveiled the iPhone on Jan 9, 2007 and most people

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Cern Basher

6 months

"Tesla is a broken stock" Nvidia was once a broken stock. As was Amazon. As was Microsoft. As was Apple. As was Meta. As was Netflix. ... and the list goes on. A "broken stock" doesn't mean a "broken company", but more likely it's associated with a negative

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

1 month

Musk Inc --> A Disruption Machine Elon's companies - Tesla, SpaceX, X, xAI, Neuralink and The Boring Company - are likely going to disrupt more than 100 companies in the S&P 500 Index that account for more than 50% of the index's market capitalization. The companies that are

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Cern Basher

9 months

The stock price is a TERRIBLE WAY to evaluate the progress of any company. Let's look at Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon... As Benjamin Graham said (and often repeated by Warren Buffett): "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a

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Cern Basher

9 months

Tesla Energy - Accelerating Digging into the growth in Tesla Energy it appears to be even stronger than reported. Reported Revenue in 2023 rose 54%. But Indicative Revenue (my term) rose 125%. Reported Revenue: One year ago (as of Q4 22) Tesla Energy generated $3.9 billion

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

6 months

Robotaxi Implications - First, Second & Third Order I recently had an in-depth discussion about this with Herbert Ong (video link in the comments below), but here are some highlights... 1) It fundamentally changes Tesla's business model. Wall Street will need to fire the auto

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Cern Basher

11 months

@andrewrsorkin @elonmusk Next time, please stop interrupting him when he's answering your questions.

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Cern Basher

1 year

Diving a little deeper into the growth in Tesla Energy... it appears to be even stronger than reported. Tesla Energy comprises of two parts: Energy storage products like Powerwall and Megapack, and Solar energy offerings. The main driver of this business line is the Megapack, an

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

4 months

@BeerandTesla A parameter is like a setting that the AI adjusts to learn from data and make decisions. Each parameter holds a bit of information that the AI uses to understand patterns and generate outputs. The more parameters an AI model has, the more detailed and nuanced its understanding

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

9 months

Two Different Valuation Approaches for Tesla Is there a right way? 1) It's mostly an Auto Business: One approach is to look at what Tesla is selling today - mostly EVs - so you look at the global auto market, EV adoption rates, Tesla's market share and project out a growth rate

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

1 year

@elonmusk has said that humanoid robots “will probably be worth significantly more than the car side of things long-term." Have you ever wondered how much more? Let’s take a look at Tesla’s humanoid robot opportunity. ... Introducing the Boundless Optimus Transformation at

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Cern Basher

1 year

Tesla Energy is quickly becoming a solid profit contributor - since Q3 2018 Tesla Energy has generated over $900 million in gross profit. Tesla Services and Other is also clearly becoming a solid profit contributor, after years of losses. Together, Tesla Energy + Services &

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

6 months

Tesla's Regulatory Credits - means factories are "built by your competition" While many analysts tend to minimize the revenue generated by Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulatory credits received by Tesla from other automakers, it is important to consider the significance of this

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

15 days

And from an investor's perspective...

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

15 days

Elon Musk's companies make progress...

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

8 months

Humanoid Bot Market - Who are the Players? It's a rapidly evolving space, but here are the top contenders as Scott Walter and I see it today. We haven't ranked the companies on the list, so please don't get upset if your favorite humanoid bot is not listed at the top. Note:

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Cern Basher

3 months

Tesla - What's Better: Autos vs. Energy vs. Robotaxi vs. Bots? Answer: You'll soon be calling 911 (foreshadowing)... Okay, put yourself in Elon's shoes - you can make autos, or your can make battery storage products, or you can operate a robotaxi network, or you can offer

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Cern Basher

1 year

The World's 50 largest corporations generate more than $12.5 trillion in annual revenue. Interestingly, Tesla, with its emphasis on the automotive and energy sectors, is targeting nearly half of that colossal sum. While it's not implied that Tesla is going to extract a direct $6

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

9 months

@garyblack00 Nice to see that you agreed with this:

@CernBasher

Cern Basher

9 months

@garyblack00 @DivesTech It’s not Tesla’s job to spoon feed Wall Street. Do your own research.

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Cern Basher

1 year

Many analysts like to exclude the money that Tesla receives from Zero Emission Vehicle regulatory credits paid to them from other automakers. The thinking is that one day this source of revenue will go away. While that is true, ignoring the reg. credit revenue is missing

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Cern Basher

2 months

Tesla - "Dead Money" 936 trading days ago, Tesla's stock price was the same price it closed at today - so the stock has been "dead money" for over three and a half years. Some things to keep in mind: 1) This is not abnormal - very successful stocks can have very long periods of

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

9 months

The stock price is a TERRIBLE WAY to evaluate the progress of any company. Let's look at Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon... As Benjamin Graham said (and often repeated by Warren Buffett): "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a

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Cern Basher

9 months

The CEO's of big companies that employ a lot of workers should be calling Elon Musk now and paying Tesla a lot of money to be first in line to receive Tesla's Optimus Robot. If they are not first in line, they could be waiting for years - and watching as their competition

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

27 days

Tesla Semi: Total Addressable Market Could Tesla Semi be a $1 trillion+ in revenue market opportunity? Yes. At least. There are about 13.5 million registered trucks in the USA. Of those, about 3 million are tractor-trailer trucks ("tractors") and the remaining 10.5 million are

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

27 days

Tesla Semi: The Choice of a New Generation Pepsi only has to buy another 10,914 Tesla Semi to replace their entire fleet of tractor trucks. That would be a $2.2 billion total investment (if each truck cost just $200,000). 11,000 Tesla Semi amount to about 110 million 4680

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Cern Basher

2 months

@gigafactories Amazing, but surely you aren't yet making 6.3 million drive units per year, right?!

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Cern Basher

9 months

Tesla's Regulatory Credits - the gift that keeps on giving While many analysts tend to minimize the revenue generated by Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulatory credits received by Tesla from other automakers, it is important to consider the significance of this income. Since

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Cern Basher

6 months

@freshjiva Good point - it's probably worth trillions in market cap.

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Cern Basher

4 months

Just curious, @elonmusk are the first two bots that are autonomously performing tasks in the factory named Adam & Eve?

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Cern Basher

7 months

Year to date, Tesla is the WORST performing stock in the S&P 500 - down 29%. Yeah, that makes sense - there’s nothing going on at Tesla - no innovation, no leadership, no growth. #sarcasm

@charliebilello

Charlie Bilello

@charliebilello

7 months

The Best and Worst Performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year...

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

19 days

WE, ROBOT: Thoughts on the 10-10 Image Wheel: There is a black wheel, like a car tire. This could also signify an asphalt road. The gray circle could represent the rim of the wheel. The full circle could represent global coverage (aspirationally) of the robotaxi network.

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@elonmusk

Elon Musk

20 days

This will be one for the history books

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Cern Basher

16 days

We, Progress Tesla - We, Robot xAI - We, Compute X Corp - We, Connect SpaceX - We, Explore Neuralink - We, Think The Boring Company - We, Move Kristian's post below highlights how the "synergistic flywheel of the sum of Elon’s companies grows over the next couple of decades,

@KristianKasap

Kristian

16 days

Elon Musk's 100-Year Master Plan: A Web of Innovation 🧵(1/12) From #Tesla 's sustainable energy push to #SpaceX 's Mars missions, #ElonMusk 's ventures are not just companies; they're pieces of a grand vision for humanity's future. 🌍🚀 Tesla isn't just about cars; it's about an

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Cern Basher

15 days

Got a thing…

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Cern Basher

3 months

Tesla's Competition has Paid for Tesla's Entire Compute Spend Since inception, Tesla has spent a total of $5.1 billion on Compute - including both spending on AI infrastructure ($2.5 billion) and Computer Equipment - Hardware & Software ($2.6 billion). Over just the last three

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

3 months

Tesla's Regulatory Credits - means factories are "built by your competition" While many analysts tend to minimize the revenue generated by Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulatory credits received by Tesla from other automakers, it is important to consider the significance of

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

23 days

Tesla Semi = A Gift to the Trucking Industry If only FedEx had a way to make their company more profitable? Oh wait, the answer is coming... FedEx only has a 4% net profit margin. With over 38,000 tractor trucks in their fleet, the Tesla Semi is an answer to their business

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@herbertong

Herbert Ong

23 days

🚨 Tesla Semi: A $1 TRILLION Opportunity?? Wall Street Clueless! w/ @CernBasher • Pepsi has ordered 100 Tesla Semi trucks, marking a big step for Tesla in the semi-truck market. • Tesla's Semi pilot program met all its goals, like long-haul capabilities and driver

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Cern Basher

9 months

The value of the Tesla bot call option just increased...

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

9 months

Optimus folds a shirt

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Cern Basher

23 days

I have obtained this video from the near future…

@CernBasher

Cern Basher

24 days

Record breaking light show at the Florida Cyberfest! The trucks were stacked seven rows deep.

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Cern Basher

3 months

Gary's comments about Tesla are laughable. I'm usually mild-mannered / forgiving about these things, but sometimes the BS is just too great. To illustrate: This is what he allegedly said when Amazon transitioned from just a book seller: "To increase our AMZN position we need to

@smdcapital1010

lord pretty flacko

@smdcapital1010

3 months

the king of buy high, sell low

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Cern Basher

7 months

@alojoh For those that need a visual of what AJ is talking about here…

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Cern Basher

3 months

Tesla Energy: What it Means in Model Y Equivalents With Q2's Production and Delivery report Tesla Energy should no longer be ignored by Wall Street. But if they do ignore it, here's what they're missing... 430,000 Model Y's The stated production capacity of Tesla's Lathrop

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Cern Basher

11 months

What if your Tesla could earn money while parked? Elon Musk’s new idea could turn your car’s downtime into a cash machine, … or will it? Some have suggested this might be Tesla’s next multi-billion dollar market opportunity. How much might a Tesla owner make by allowing

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

3 months

Tesla is already making 74 million "bot equivalents" As of the end of Q2, 2024, over the last 12 months, Tesla delivered about 170 GWh of energy --> 150 GWh in Autos and another 20 GWh of battery storage products. Since Tesla will one day primarily be a bot company, that's

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

6 months

And here it comes...

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

6 months

Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

9 months

Tesla - Befuddling Wall Street This chart shows Wall Street's expectations for Tesla and the rest of the "Magnificent 7" stocks out to 2028. This steady growth is wrong and here's why... 1) Revenue: Few companies see revenues grow in a straight line. The Magnificent 7

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

9 months

If you could buy a machine that could save you $615,000 over ten years, what would you pay today in order to do that? This is the exact question that global manufacturing firms and big companies who employ many workers will soon have to answer. What is clear to me: once one

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

7 months

Tesla Energy - Q1 Bright Spot "We deployed 4,053 MWh of energy storage products in Q1, the highest quarterly deployment yet."

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

9 months

Humanoid Robots - How Big Could the Market Become? Prediction Alert: I believe that we are seeing a new industry forming that will become the largest in the world - humanoid robots will transform how we make things and create a massive new industry. Labor vs Oil: Today, the oil

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Cern Basher

9 months

Humanoid Robots - ARK Invest Big Ideas 2024 In my models I've been assuming that humanoid robots only work as fast as a human worker. It appears that I will need to rethink that assumption... Even working at human speed, a humanoid robot has a 3.5 to 1 advantage, as the bot can

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

4 months

This is one of many recent comments that Elon has made about the potential future value of robotaxi (and bots) … is anyone paying attention? This reminds me of Jensen at Nvidia talking about the potential growth of AI a couple of years ago - no one listened to him. Maybe

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

4 months

@Teslaconomics Maybe higher

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

9 months

Tesla - a $100 billion revenue run-rate Tesla has produced $96.773 billion in revenue over the last 12 months - so close to $100 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2023 Tesla saw revenue cross $25 billion for the first time - pushing the annual run-rate over $100 billion.

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Cern Basher

2 years

May you get one of these new Tesla RV's under your tree (in 2027)! #midjourneyart

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Cern Basher

2 months

"FSD will be much safer than humans" What does Elon mean when he says this? FSD would need to more than 99.9998% reliable. Let me explain... In the USA there are about 6,000,000 accidents reported each year and American's drive about 3.3 trillion miles per year. This means

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@elonmusk

Elon Musk

2 months

@WholeMarsBlog FSD will be much safer than humans

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

5 months

Here are some key highlights from Tony Seba's post "This Time, We Are The Horses" on Humanoid Robots (see his original post below) - there are so many key insights... here are a few: 1) "This time, we are the horses: the disruption of labor by humanoid robots" - This is

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@tonyseba

Tony Seba

5 months

This time, we are the horses: The #disruption of labor by #HumanoidRobots . 👤 🤖 〰️ 🚘 🐴 Our first longread in this series is now available via the @rethink_x blog.

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Cern Basher

4 months

Great news!

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

4 months

Both Tesla shareholder resolutions are currently passing by wide margins! ♥️♥️ Thanks for your support!! ♥️♥️

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Cern Basher

22 days

Vision Autopark for the Cybertruck Yeah, it works.

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

10 months

@DrKnowItAll16 Which will only accelerate from here.

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Cern Basher

4 months

By effectively excluding humanoid bots, Ark's 2029 price target is artificially low (and they know it). On Optimus, they say: "We assume that Optimus will have minimal impact on our price target. Over the next decade, we expect Tesla to become a leading manufacturer and service

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@herbertong

Herbert Ong

4 months

BREAKING: ARK’s Expected Value For $TSLA In 2029: $2,600 Per Share • Bear and bull cases for Tesla's valuation in 2029 range between ~$2,000 and $3,100 per share. • ARK estimates nearly 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and earnings in 2029 will be attributed to the robotaxi

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

10 months

Tesla's Growth Rate and Inventories: two things that some people like to find fault with. 1) Nothing grows in a straight line: Year over year Tesla saw growth in deliveries of 37.6% - very solid growth during difficult economic conditions for auto makers. The 50% CAGR target

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Cern Basher

13 days

@SawyerMerritt He's just scared.

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Cern Basher

4 months

Optimus will be sold AND offered as a service/rentals.

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

4 months

@CernBasher Bots would be offered both as rentals as well as to buy, but the former first

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Cern Basher

7 months

To those fretting about Tesla delivering 46,561 fewer vehicles than they produced this quarter... When Tesla makes a vehicle they can't just instantly deliver it to the end buyer. It takes time to transport the vehicle on trains & trucks all over the country. In the case of

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

6 months

Bot Napkin Math at Massive Scale Per Elon, if there are 1x, 2x, 3x or 4x bots for every human on the planet, what might the humanoid bot industry look like? Well, let's just say, it would be a colossal industry - nothing like we've ever seen (warning this gets extremely nutty).

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

6 months

Elon on the number of humanoid bots in the future... "I think the ratio will be at least 2 for every human, maybe 3 or 4, as there will be many in industry producing goods & services, often for other robots in the supply chain." Let me do the math for you: 1 bot per human on

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

11 days

Tesla + Uber = Unnecessary --> Tesla + X = Smart On the surface, the idea of Tesla entering into a partnership with Uber for an autonomous ride hail business might seem like a good idea. Uber has something like 45 million users in the USA. Tesla makes the vehicles and provides

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

7 months

How much is a used Tesla worth on Day 1 of a robotaxi network? More than you might realize... Once a robotaxi network is up and running, a used Tesla - one without purchased FSD - goes from being a depreciation machine to a money printing machine. This means that the value

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

2 years

The ramping of Tesla's quarterly production is truly impressive (and Berlin and Texas barely contribute). But the potential production ramp ahead is even more exciting...

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Cern Basher

4 months

Robots as a Service - a 24/7 on-demand workforce Today, when we think of labor, we think of people working 8ish hours a day, five days a week. Our GDP is based on a human work week. In the future, labor will be robots working 22ish hours a day, seven days a week. Our GDP will be

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Cern Basher

11 months

Tesla inspires the next generation with the new Cybertruck! He asked if he could get a robot 🤖 to clean his room!

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Cern Basher

2 months

@piloly With one minor addendum to your chart...

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Cern Basher

1 month

4680 Battery Ramp - Better than it Looks! Over the last 101 days Tesla has made about 50 million 4680 batteries - this implies an average battery production of about 495,000 per day. But that's an average of the last 101 days. It doesn't tell you where they entered and, more

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@LimitingThe

The Limiting Factor

1 month

Tesla just reached 100 million 4680 cells produced! 🎉 The last update was on the 5th of June where they announced 50 million cells produced. There were 101 days in that time span, which means that on average, they produced 495,000 cells/day. In terms of Cybertrucks, that's

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Cern Basher

5 months

Optimus Bot Production Ramp Smoke-away wrote: "Optimus Production Ramp - 2024: 1,000 - 2025: 10,000 - 2026: 100,000 - 2027: 1,000,000 - 2028: 10,000,000 - 2029: 100,000,000 - 2030: 1,000,000,000" and Elon replied: "Not quite that fast, but not far wrong" By comparison,

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@elonmusk

Elon Musk

5 months

@SmokeAwayyy Not quite that fast, but not far wrong

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@CernBasher

Cern Basher

6 months

They say you should surround yourself with people smarter than yourself - I did just that today! Anyone over-hearing our conversation on humanoid bots would have been inspired.

@ChrisCamillo

Chris Camillo

6 months

Had to go to Miami to find guys as enthusiastic as me to talk #humanoids over lunch. @CernBasher @derekwall @GoingBallistic5

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Cern Basher

4 months

@DoctorJack16 Agreed. As for the bathroom, the vehicle can stop whenever you'd like it to - so no need to come up with anything too creative on that front!

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