The CER is an award winning think-tank devoted to making the EU work better and strengthening its role in the world. We are pro-European but not uncritical.
Latest CER estimate: the UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted remain. The knock-on hit to the public finances is £19 billion per annum – or £360 million a week.
.
@johnspringford
has updated his cost of Brexit model for the second quarter of 2022.
Britain’s economy is 5.5% smaller as a result of Brexit.
#costofbrexit
📺
@JohnSpringford
spoke to
@ITVJoel
about the impact that Brexit has had on the UK economy.
His findings:
▪ GDP down by 5.2 per cent
▪ Investment 13.7 per cent lower
▪ Goods trade reduced by 13.6 per cent
All figures compared to a 'doppelgänger' UK economy still in 🇪🇺. 1/2
🇵🇱 🇪🇺 🇭🇺 The EU will soon decide on Poland & Hungary's recovery funding, in the context of democratic backsliding & corruption there. But these problems go beyond both countries.
However you prefer to get clued-up on our latest
#anticorruption
research, we’ve got you covered. /1
Who should pay for reconstructing Ukraine?
Western governments want the private sector to do the lion’s share, but they would do better to use Russia’s frozen assets. 🇺🇦 🇷🇺
🆕
@CER_EU
insight by
@tashecon
&
@CER_IanBond
ahead of
#URC23
Future historians will ask why the British government paid so little attention to economics during the negotiation. The short answer that Johnson’s government prioritised sovereignty.
New insight by
@CER_Grant
Disappointing to hear
@theresa_may
suggest that EU nationals have somehow been bending migration rules for years – it has been their (and UK citizens') right to move freely across EU & comment does not give due credit to big contribution EU nationals make to UK
"Brexit's supporters maintained leaving the EU would put rocket boosters under the UK economy. It has done the opposite, cutting the size of the economy by over 5%, according to the Centre for European Reform."
@Hugodixon
quotes
@JohnSpringford
's research
No withdrawal agreement means no transition period: if there is a no-deal
#Brexit
, UK citizens living in the EU would become third-country nationals on November 1st.
New CER bulletin article by
@CaminoMortera
Clarification re
@Jacob_Rees_Mogg
+
@SteveBakerHW
comments on
@CER_Grant
. “I did not say or imply that the Treasury had deliberately developed a model to show that all non-customs union options were bad, with the intention to influence policy,”
@CER_Grant
John Bolton is not a trade envoy–his concerns are Iran, China, Huawei “He is using the carrot of a potential free trade agreement with the US -something the UK and Brexit supporters have wanted for a while- as a means of applying pressure to the UK”
@SamuelMarcLowe
tells
@SkyNews
Something doesn't add up - Brexiters are confident a hard Irish border can be avoided with existing tech & other arrangements, so why are they worried about the backstop? If they're right these border solutions would make the backstop redundant.
There is no ‘Brexit dividend’. According to new CER analysis, Brexit is now damaging the public finances by £440 million a week.
'What's the cost of Brexit so far?' by
@JohnSpringford
#costofbrexit
#BrexitDividend
☝️ Footage from
@itvnews
📺
🔎
@JohnSpringford
's full report on the cost of
#Brexit
will be available on our website tomorrow.
📉 In the meantime, here's ITV's write-up of his latest research 👇 2/2
If Putin were to capture the Suwalki gap, connecting Poland to Lithuania, it would cut off the three Baltic nations from the rest of NATO.
@CER_IanBond
says Western deployments in Poland and the Baltics need to be beefed up.
Speaking to
@StevenErlanger
:
🚨 🎧 We're excited to introduce our new podcast, 'Ask CER'.
🗣 Every six weeks, our researchers will answer your questions about all things European policy, breaking down topics you're interested in knowing more about.
UK government says it won’t be able to roll over the trade agreements it has with Japan, Turkey, Andorra/San Marino through EU by
#Brexit
day if there’s no deal + and Algeria unlikely –
The doppelgänger (or synthetic control) method has been controversial in the Brexit debate.
In a new insight,
@JohnSpringford
shows why it's the best way to assess the economic impact of Brexit.
#costofbrexit
When British politicians talk about an extension they often give the impression that it is just a question of asking politely. But they ignore the fact that Brexit is a negotiation, not a monologue.
New CER insight by
@AgataGostynska
Irish PM right to tell Johnson there is no such thing as a clean break Brexit on Oct 31 or even Jan 31 - “we will just move on to a new phase” – CER’s
@JohnSpringford
has set out why no deal would be a serious rupture that would be very difficult to repair
“The US is a strong operator in trade agreements – it tends to get what it wants by being tough and pursuing its own interests, and it will make use of the fact that Britain post-Brexit will be very much in bad need of a trade deal"
@CER_Grant
tells
@BBCWorld
In the UK’s future, semi-permanent negotiations with the EU, it will be hampered by the fact that EU leaders do not trust Johnson’s government to keep its word or respect international law.
New insight by
@CER_Grant
Forecasts of the long-term hit from Boris Johnson’s Brexit range from 2 to 7 per cent.
@JohnSpringford
has several reasons to fear that that the costs will be on the higher side.
New
@CER_EU
insight by
@JohnSpringford
: UK goods trade was 5% smaller in February as a result of leaving the single market and customs union. That’s after a 10% fall between the referendum and the end of the transition period.
"Based on the fact that Trump is always complaining about how little the Europeans do for their own defence, he ought actually to think that it was a good thing that the Europeans were taking care of this"
@CER_IanBond
tells
@AFP
@dmitryzaksAFP
Brexit isn’t the main reason behind high inflation in the UK.
But it is the main reason why GDP, investment and goods trade are so much lower than peer economies.
@JohnSpringford
’s latest on the cost of Brexit:
🇺🇦 For Ukraine, there is an element of risk in not seeking a rapid end to the fighting.
If the West wants to mitigate that risk and bring about a quick end to the war, it should step up its military support to
#Kyiv
, argues
@CER_IanBond
.
By 2024, Europe will have reduced its gas needs by substituting electricity, produced mainly from renewables, for home heating & the transport sector.
In retrospect the invasion of
#Ukraine
will be seen to have accelerated Europe’s green transition:
For the sake of Europe’s security, as well as its own, Ukraine needs to win, decisively, in a way that shatters any Russian dream of renewing the war for the foreseeable future. 🇺🇦
Insight by
@CER_IanBond
:
For 30 years, the Russian elite has been able to loot its own country and benefit from the financial system, rule of law and lifestyle available in the West.
It is time to put a stop to that arrangement.
#UkraineRussia
New insight by
@CER_IanBond
Johnson’s proposed EU-UK FTA will increase costs and friction for British businesses trading with the EU. For many, this would create a December 2020 cliff edge comparable to no deal.
New insight by
@SamuelMarcLowe
:
Europe spends up to €800m per day on Russian gas, which goes towards financing Putin’s war machine.
The EU's plans to reduce Russian gas imports by two thirds by the end of this year, and to end imports of Russian fossil fuels by 2027, are too leisurely:
British financial services exports to the European Union could plunge by over half if Theresa May takes the UK out of the single market as planned. In this episode of the
@CER_EU
podcast,
@SamuelMarcLowe
traces the impact of Brexit sector by sector.
Why is the Irish
#Brexit
backstop a good thing for Northern Ireland?
1) It works
2) It places Northern Ireland in an advantageous position relative to Britain
3) It has public support
@SamuelMarcLowe
writes in
@prospect_uk
Latest estimate from
@JohnSpringford
’s cost of Brexit model: in October 2021 single market exit had reduced UK trade in goods by 15.7 per cent, or £12.6 bn.
The UK economy is 2.5% smaller than it would be if the UK had voted to remain in the EU.
@JohnSpringford
’s new estimate of the cost of Brexit is published today.
Respect for the rule of law is declining in many EU member-states, not just in Central Europe. The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators show that from 2009-2018 the rule of law deteriorated in 17 EU member-states.
⏩ We then condensed this event into a podcast, with
@osfEUpolicy
.
💸 🎧
@CaminoMortera
and
@Carl_Dolan
analysed the speakers' remarks and considered the prospects for anti-corruption and upholding the rule of law in Europe from here on out. ⚖ /end
“Some of the demands the US will make of Britain in a trade agreement, such as following US agricultural standards for food safety, will make it much harder for the UK to trade with the EU after Brexit”
@CER_Grant
In circumstances where
#Putin
is doing so many things that defy economic rationality, Western leaders should not assume that he would refrain from cutting off oil and gas supplies, causing immediate and severe harm to Europe’s economy.
#RussiaUkraineWar
In war, the ‘right’ side does not always win. Ukraine could lose. Western action (or inaction) suggests that governments are not worried enough about the consequences of Ukrainian defeat.
🆕 policy brief for
@CER_EU
by
@CER_IanBond
New CER insight 'Britain's services firms can't defy gravity, alas' by
@JohnSpringford
and
@SamuelMarcLowe
The UK’s specialism in services does not mean it’s entered a “post-geography trading world”
According to
@JohnSpringford
’s latest estimate of the Brexit costs, published today, the UK’s government deficit would largely have been eliminated in the 2018-19 financial year if Britain had voted to Remain.
#costofbrexit
"The UK-EU trade deal has imposed sizeable costs on importers, exporters + employers. The EU did put tariffs up. And it's gained more powers, rather than dissolving into a looser federation."
@JohnSpringford
for the
@Independent
on
#Brexit
one year on:
EU will reject any kind of infrastructure on/close to the Irish border for two reasons: it's an invitation to terrorists to blow it up + it would damage the integrity of the EU’s single market/customs union -
@CER_Grant
tells
@BBCr4today
(from 08.55am)
CER's
@SophiaBesch
giving evidence to the Bundestag Committee for European Union Affairs yesterday, on qualified majority voting in EU foreign policy 🇪🇺
Watch back here:
UK consumers are facing the return of EU roaming charges. This round of charges was not the inevitable outcome of a hard Brexit. The UK government could and should have prevented these charges.
New insight by
@Zach_CER
Boris Johnson chose to put a customs and regulatory border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. He must face up to his decision and work with the EU to ensure trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK flows as smoothly as possible:
UK govt did not make a formal quantitative assessment of economic impact of leaving customs union before it made that decision, says Brexit minister David Davis. This statement is unlikely to instil confidence in EU that UK knows what wants out of Brexit.
New
@CER
Insight by
@JohnSpringford
: UK goods trade was 11% smaller in March as a result of leaving the single market and customs union. That’s after a 10% fall between the referendum and the end of the transition period.
New CER insight
'The Brussels view of Brexit' by
@CER_Grant
The EU is no longer as united as it was on how to handle the British. But just about everyone working on Brexit in the EU’s institutions and governments is fed up with them.
🗣️ NATO should formally denounce the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. It was agreed in a different era, when Russia was committed to co-operation and NATO had no need to station forces in Central Europe.
🇺🇦 🇷🇺 New insight by
@CER_IanBond
:
Misleading
@TheSun
headline – she didn’t call for an extension – she said "I stand ready for further extension of the withdrawal agreement should more time be required for a good reason" Follow
@AgataGostynska
for analysis of
@vonderleyen
speech
Post-Brexit reality has set in: official government impact assessments shows that new
#FTAs
can never compensate for
#Brexit
.
New
@CER_EU
insight by
@BergAslak
This analysis by
@SamuelMarcLowe
&
@BethOppenheim
sheds more light on why it’s in the UK’s economic interest to prioritise a close economic relationship with the EU over any potential trade deal with the US
The Polish government’s defiance over the rule of law puts the EU in a bind. To protect the Union’s integrity without alienating Polish citizens, the EU needs a mix of political pressure, legal action & better communication.
New insight by
@CaminoMortera
🇺🇦 🇷🇺 European leaders who have pretended defence can be had on the cheap will have to admit to their populations that freedoms need to be defended, defence needs to be paid for, and defence budgets will now have to rise.
✍️ New piece by
@CER_IanBond
:
.
@carlbildt
considers the new 🇺🇸
#NationalSecurityStrategy
.
The 2021 interim strategy spoke of “an assertive China & a destabilising Russia”, but Russia is now described as "posing an immediate & persistent threat to international peace & stability.
#NSS
Many Western leaders still act as though what is happening in
#Ukraine
is someone else’s war.
They're not neutral, but aren't treating the outcome of the conflict as a matter of vital interest to their countries. They should.
✍️
@CER_IanBond
:
CER's
@SamuelMarcLowe
argues that if the UK wants significantly closer economic relations with the EU, it needs to rethink its approach to freedom of movement.
👔Giving evidence to
@CommonsFREU
, video thanks to
@patricklohlein
🙏
🐟 CER's trade expert
@SamuelMarcLowe
says that some of the challenges Scottish fishermen are having in exporting goods to the EU are teething problems, but others are a permanent cost of Brexit.
📻 Speaking to
@Sarah_Montague
on
#bbcwato
:
If 🇷🇺 can rebuild its strength, at least partially, while it still occupies a significant part of
#Ukraine
Putin’s starting point for his next attack will be more advantageous than it was in February.
@CER_EU
bulletin article by
@CER_IanBond
.
@johnspringford
and
@cer_ianbond
have read Marine Le Pen’s manifesto (so you don’t have to). It’s a recipe for EU paralysis and a weaker NATO.
New CER insight:
We’re heading for a very serious train crash – Article 50 process is too short - should be six years-long so all possibilities can be explored, former Irish PM John Bruton tells
#CERfutureEU
conference
Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement satisfies no one, but given the weakness of her hand, it was the only deal that was negotiable with the EU.
#BrexitDeal
New insight by
@JohnSpringford
Many thanks to
@RoryStewartUK
for joining us yesterday to discuss the future of British foreign policy.
You can watch a video of the event, chaired by
@CER_Grant
, here:
📌 We are recruiting a research fellow to work on Brexit and trade, who would probably work in our London office, but could be based in Berlin or Brussels.
Please see the job description and details on how to apply below 👇
While the UK government continues to prioritise sovereignty over close economic ties, the outlook for EU-UK data flows looks dim.
New article by
@Zach_CER
and
@CaminoMortera
If Europe were able to stop purchasing Russian oil and gas immediately, that might be the most effective sanction it could impose. The political will to take such a radical step is still absent, however.
New by
@CER_IanBond
@Zach_CER
&
@ElisabettaCo
Despite the gravity of the war in Ukraine, the focus of the new US National Security Strategy is China, writes
@carlbildt
The document says plenty about the importance of technology, but ignores the relevance of trade to national security.
Thank you to Catherine De Bolle
@Europol
for speaking at our
@CER_EU
@KreabEU
breakfast on 'Catch me if you can: What are Europol’s priorities for the next five years?' in Brussels this morning.
📉 Using the data for December last year,
@JohnSpringford
's economic model puts UK trade loss at 14.9 per cent, or £12.9 billion for the month: the isolated impact of Brexit.
Read his latest here 👇
🇪🇺 Yesterday Ursula von der Leyen said Russian
#sanctions
are here to stay: "This is time for resolve and not appeasement."
But though instrumental to constraining Putin, sanctions must be part of a broader strategy, say
@CER_IanBond
&
@Zach_CER
.
#SOTEU
The UK economy is 2.3 per cent smaller than it would have been had Britons voted to stay in the European Union.
The latest update of the
@CER_EU
Cost of Brexit analysis, for the third quarter of 2018 by
@JohnSpringford
New CER policy brief by
@hilarybennmp
: he surveys the stalemate between London and Brussels over the Northern Ireland Protocol and highlights key areas for compromise for each side.
Higher public debt has benefits. That fact alone is mostly absent from the European debate. It’s time to set the record straight, argue
@adam_tooze
and
@codendahl
in their latest for
@CER_EU
.
#Brexit
has not been the expected boon for eurosceptic parties. Populists have done well in several elections since the UK referendum, but the
#EU
’s negotiations with the UK have shown that leaving the Union is painful.
If Turkey is willing to ratify Finland’s NATO membership, there is little reason for Helsinki to wait for Stockholm.
Article in
@euronews
by
@HelmiPillai
🇫🇮 🇸🇪
“If ‘global Britain’ is to succeed in forums like the G20, G7 and COP26, then we can’t do it if we have bad relations with the EU. We’ll learn there’s a price to be paid for being in a grumpy relationship with our European partners.”
🗣
@CER_Grant
@FT
🇪🇺 We are delighted to announce that
@lionelbarber
, editor of the
@FT
from 2005-20, has joined the Centre for European Reform's advisory board.
@CER_Grant
Brexit has only cost us and the worst is yet to come
@TheNewEuropean
“We have had such a difficult time with investment, which has been so stagnant,” says
@JohnSpringford
“and we know low investment now reduces growth in the future.”
The Conservative Party remains profoundly
#eurosceptic
.
Sunak wants good relations with the EU but is wary of upsetting hard-line MPs in the European Research Group.
🆕 article by
@CER_Grant