Charles Grant @CER_Grant Twitter profile

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

Recently spoke to a group of senior business leaders. All believed that not extending Brexit transition would be v bad for their businesses and the economy. But none was willing to speak out in public, for fear of punishment by No 10. Not a healthy way to run UK. @CER_London

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

In Birmingham at a @spectator fringe I point out to @Jacob_Rees_Mogg that most UK businesses don’t complain about EU regs. They do complain about friction at the border. Couldn’t govt use review of TCA due in 2026 to reduce paperwork for importers/exporters, I ask?

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

This afternoon at @waitrose in Holloway, as I bemoaned the absence of pasta, rice & bread, I saw a tall woman unloading cartons of food onto shelves. Twas Sharon White, @jlandpartners ' chairman, mucking in with her colleagues. She told me of plans to get food on shelves. Chapeau!

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

A short thread on the resignation of @DavidGHFrost as Brexit minister. It matters. Together with the PM he ran Brexit policy. Few other ministers or officials had much say. And he was a big advocate of the thump'em school of diplomacy, believing that being tough gets results./1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

Assuming that HMG sticks with its apparent plan of scrapping parts of Withdrawal Agreement and doing without an EU-UK trade accord, I foresee 10 consequences - a short thread. @CER_EU /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

But Charlie we’ll be horribly divided for a generation whether or not we have 2nd ref. I’d rather be divided within EU, so there is more £ to spend on helping the poorest people, than outside with a smaller economy and less £ to help the disadvantaged.

Charlie Falconer

@LordCFalconer

6 years

The destructive impact of the referendum on our politics has been huge. To suggest a second referendum is unwise.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

The invasion of #Ukraine will have consequences - a thread. 1) Russia's economy already faced multiple problems - inability to diversify from hydrocarbon exports, the dead weight of corruption, stagnant living standards; sanctions (esp tech bans) & isolation will hurt economy.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

Frost's departure is symptomatic of BJ's weakness - and weakens him further, since he was one of the PM's few real allies. If he has any sense, Johnson will focus on his domestic problems and try to avoid big fights with EU. By-election showed Brexit no longer a vote-winner. END

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

7 years

Debating @Jacob_Rees_Mogg on @BBCr4today this morning, I gave him the chance to apologise for traducing me in the Commons. He declined, despite the fact that Dexeu minister @SteveBakerHW has graciously apologised for the episode on Thursday. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

. @CER_EU will be analysing the #Brexit deal in due course, when there is a text to study. In the meantime here are 10 reflections on the Brexit process - a thread. /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 months

I just spent a week in Beijing, for the first time in many years. A few thoughts. The war in Ukraine is creating huge strains in China's relations with the US and the EU. This is because the war has pushed China into closer alignment with Russia, Iran and DPRK. /1 @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

The country is divided whether or not we have a 2nd referendum. I'd rather live in a divided country inside the EU than a divided country outside. One reason being that inside we'd have more growth and so more money to spend on helping disadvantaged communities. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

When I was in BXL 2 weeks ago, meeting EU & govt officials, I was told that he was personally responsible for the dire state of EU-UK relations; when @michaelgove had played a role, more diplomatically, solutions had been in sight. Some of those I spoke to really hated Frost. /2

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

7 years

My take-away from a day of meetings in Brussels: The issue of the Irish border is much more likely to scupper a deal on Brexit in December than money or citizens' rights. 'There is no solution that can satisfy IRE and UK', says one EU ambassador. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

(UK de facto in EU customs union & single mkt for goods), or Johnson's deal of October with a border in Irish Sea. I am confident the EU would not betray the Irish on the border. This means that any UK govt that wants a trade deal will have to give in to the EU on Ireland. /ENDS

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

7 years

My main takeaway from 3 days of meetings in Washington, incl senior officials: war between US and N Korea is much closer than many people realise. Officials think deterrence unlikely to work v a madman. Unless sanctions change N Korea's behaviour, US cd start a pre-emptive war.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

Having spent much of this week in Brussels, I have no doubt that the EU will refuse to reopen the withdrawal agreement/Irish backstop. EU leaders are alarmed that UK pols remain so ignorant of the EU position and the realities of Brexit. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

10 months

This evening @BBCRadio4 News at 10 told us that Donald Tusk had been president of the Commission. He was of course president of the European Council. One result of Brexit has been a growing ignorance of EU, evident in our main political parties but now spreading to the BBC.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

8 months

RIP Jacques Delors. I got to know him when researching 'Delors: Inside the House that Jacques Built' (1994). A decent, modest man. How many politicians would turn down the chance to run for president of France, when they had a good chance of winning, as he did in 1994? /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

7. When the Brits realise what a thin deal they've got, their politicians will debate how/whether to improve it. Labour is likely to seek closer economic & security ties. For one reason or another, UK & EU will be in permanent negotiation, for at least 50 years. Ask the Swiss./8

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

The real mystery about @DavidGHFrost is where his euroscepticism comes from. I knew him quite well in the first decade of this century, when he was a fairly senior diplomat. He never said anything to make me think he was a eurosceptic and I don't believe he was then. /8

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

30 months after the UK referendum, what conclusions can we draw about Brexit in particular and the process of trying to quit the EU in general? A thread. in 15 parts. @CER_EU /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

Of course Frost could not have taken such a hard line without BJ's backing, but recently that has seemed in doubt. The UK has signalled it is softening on the NI Protocol - no longer insisting the ECJ be removed - and is unlikely to invoke Article 16. /3

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

It is pretty clear that the extraordinary political weakening of Johnson over the past month has lessened the appetite of his govt for a trade war with BXL - which would probably have been the result of invoking Article 16. All this may have been uncomfortable for Frost. /4

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

2. Most Brits have no idea how hard Brexit will be. Travelers, manufacturers & farmers will suffer irksome friction at borders; service companies will lose access to EU markets; businesses that import EU workers will be hurt. So UK will be less attractive to foreign investors. /3

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

I have come to The Hague for meetings with officials and MPs. The sense of regret over Brexit is greater than in any other member, excepting Ireland. The Dutch know - unlike many British voters - how influential UK has been in the EU, and often in ways the Dutch liked. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

The EU is getting fed up with the Brexit negotiations, saying the UK has wasted all the talks in July by not offering any real compromises. They wonder if UK wants a deal. But I still think deal more likely than not (this year). A thread on why I'm slightly optimistic. @CER_EU /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

Wrong. So long as UK changes its mind and withdraws Art 59 letter before it has left, we stay in on same terms as before. UK has veto over any change to budget rebate. @CER_EU

Change Britain

@Change_Britain

6 years

Staying in the EU is not an option. We would have to keep paying more £££ every single week - and they've made clear that we will lose our rebate regardless of what we decide to do now.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

a post-Frost Tory govt (or a Labour govt) could well soften the rougher edges of the TCA (eg on mobility, plant and animal health, foreign policy cooperation). My guess: Gove and Sunak, among other ministers, may not shed too many tears - they care about the needs of business. /6

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Having just returned from Brussels, a short thread on how EU and member-state officials view Brexit. They do not expect cross-talks to go anywhere and think Parliament incapable of choosing any model of Brexit by Oct 31. So they expect UK to ask for further extension. /1 @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

A deal between EU and UK is more likely than I had thought - my conclusion after 2 days of meetings with EU, member-state and UK officials. Senior figures on EU side say they can scrap backstop as long as alternatives deliver on protecting a) single mkt; b) GFA. /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

So long as Johnson and Frost were strong, they could push ahead with their plan for a sovereignty-first Brexit, at the expense of economic ties to the EU and what businesses wanted. They got their v hard Brexit in the TCA. Its basic structure is unlikely to change, but.../5

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

Fraser, your piece contains inaccuracies. The financial transaction tax is dead, talk of Euro army is just hot air, Ireland cannot be forced to change its tax rates, Barnier is not Britophobic. EU reform is difficult but Macron has many ideas, some of which may work. @CER_EU

Fraser Nelson

@FraserNelson

6 years

The stealthy rise of Martin Selmayr, the so-called “monster” of Brussels, is a reminder of why we had to get out of the EU. My @telegraph column, now online:

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

4. For past 4.5 years UK governments have seldom been honest about the trade-offs Brexit involves. There is a spectrum between max sovereignty/min economic benefit and min sov'y/max ec gain. Being honest would have required an admission that Brexit carries real economic costs./5

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Having recently been in Berlin, I can report that Franco-German relations are extremely strained - a short thread (with some stuff on Brexit at the end). @CER_EU /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

True, Frost had recently become an advocate of neo-Thatcherian economics, arguing that the UK would not profit from Brexit without radical regulatory divergence from the EU. He must have realised there was little chance of that - few Tory MPs think like him or @Dominic2306 . /7

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

The PM wants to eliminate the border in Irish Sea. That means a border of some sort between NI & ROI, to police EU's single mkt & customs union. In the view of many, including most ROI politicians, that endangers Good Friday Agreement. One reason Republican terrorists..../2

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

Consequence 10) Scottish independence moves closer. For many Scots, leaving the EU is bad enough. Leaving with an extreme model of Brexit that harms the economy is worse. If support for SNP surges in May's Scottish election, it becomes harder for London to resist #indyref2 . /10

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

5. May's govt sought a mid-spot on spectrum, Johnson chose an extreme position of maximising sov'y. Future historians will ask why UK disregarded economics during negotiations - eg much attention paid to fish, yet financial services and car industry were ignored; eg 'F*** Bus' /6

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

10. Brexit adds to uncertainty about UK unity (many Brexiteers care little about this). It's helping to boost support for SNP & Scottish independence. And nobody can be sure how new border in Irish Sea will affect politics in N IRE - which'll stay in single mkt & customs Un'n.END

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

This piece by @john_lichfield is a very fair-minded assessment of @EmmanuelMacron 's successes and failures. For all his faults, he is probably the best leader Europe has.

Macron was the great hope for centrists. Despite his struggles, the hope is not lost | John...

The French president has been chastened by strikes and protests but there is all to play for in 2020

www.theguardian.com

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

3 years

None of the above means the UK will adopt a much softer line on Brexit anytime soon. UK officials tell me BJ fears the Spartan MPs who destroyed May and could make his life hell. But BJ is certainly capable of the flexibility required for a more diplomatic approach to the EU. /9

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

10) More tentatively, war could undermine domestic support for Putin. It seems most Russians blame West for crisis. But large numbers, incl in ruling elite, are horrified by invasion, which'll hurt their pleasant lifestyles. From Afghan invasion to collapse of USSR was 12 y. ENDS

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

A a huge mistake by HMG. Whether or not one supports Brexit, the UK will struggle to understand what the EU institutions and govts are thinking. Having officials in the room allows them to hoover up valuable intel. Cutting yourself off from intel sooner than necessary is bonkers.

Steve Barclay

@SteveBarclay

5 years

Sending 🇬🇧 officials to 🇪🇺 meetings that don't affect us is not the best use of their time. From 1 September we'll only go to meetings that are vital to our 🇬🇧 interests - freeing our people to focus on our future relationships. #Brexit

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Having met some key officials Brussels, a thread on how the EU views the imminent arrival of a BJ government. The changes in top EU personnel will not make much difference, as Brexit policy will continue to be driven mainly by FRA, GER and a few other capitals. @CER_EU /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

laid down their arms was that that border went. So consequence 1) A very bad UK-Ireland relationship. Consequence 2) An annoyed US political class that will block any UK-US trade accord (as Pelosi has spelled out). Consequence 3) Increased likelihood of violence in NI... /3

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

8. In those negot's UK will be hampered by lack of trust on EU side. Episodes like the attempts to prorogue Parliament and over-ride the Withdrawal Agreement have damaged UK soft power. EU will be pragmatic and realistic but it doesn't start out with lots of goodwill to UK. /9

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

The @FT reports that UK govt was surprised by the negative US reaction to the Internal Mkt Bill. The poor intel is shocking. Also it shd've known that @DanMulhall does a good job as an amb in DC. @KimDarroch

Simon Coveney

@simoncoveney

4 years

Spoke to @RepRichardNeal last night. The message from Washington remains crystal clear: international agreements matter and should be honoured! The GFA must not be undermined by #Brexit .

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

Consequence 4) This acrimonious Brexit will make future UK-EU co-op on defence, foreign policy and security much harder to achieve. Such co-op requires trust, confidence & goodwill, which the UK move to breach international law has damaged. A weakened Europe will delight some. /5

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

Both require the EU's goodwill, which may be lacking, with serious consequences for important sectors of UK economy. The long-term impact on Britain's voice in the world is unclear. But consequence 8) UK won't be able to tell other states to respect int'l law, eg on Hong Kong../8

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 months

into a downward spiral - even if the current diplomacy is polite. China hopes to pull EU away from alignment with US. But so long as China supports Russia's war effort & fails to do more to open its markets, the EU will stay close to US. And China will stay close to Russia. ENDS

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

without provoking laughter. And then there's the impact on UK politics. HMG's reputation for competence is already an issue, post-COVID-19 & school exams. Consequence 9) A chaotic Brexit will persuade more voters that the govt is incompetent. Labour is bound to benefit. /9

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

though there is of course never any justification for violence. The EU was united in its support for Ireland in Brexit talks and in its backing for Withdrawal Agreement. So UK will have embittered its biggest trading partner. /4

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

UK leaving without a deal may not be a permanent state, but it will be long enough to hurt. Consequence 5) chaos at GB's borders (even WITH a deal some of that would happen, eg IT systems not ready). EU could lack motivation to minimise friction through customs cooperation. /6

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Having spent part of this week in Brussels, a few thoughts on how the EU institutions and member-states see Brexit. They think the chances of no deal are high, because they don't trust the UK political class not to screw up. @CER_EU /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

Consequence 6) 'WTO rules' means high tariffs that would hurt sectors of UK economy such as car-making and livestock. Consequence 7) UK has been counting on EU granting it data 'adequacy', which is a decision for the EU; ditto for 'equivalence' for financial services. But../7

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

This is an important piece of original research on the cost is Brexit.

CER

@CER_EU

5 years

Latest CER estimate: the UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted remain. The knock-on hit to the public finances is £19 billion per annum – or £360 million a week.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

No, Chris, a customs union has a precise meaning under WTO rules. Either the UK aligns with the EU's commercial policy for goods and/or farm produce, or it doesn't. WTO rules - not Brussels blabber - don't allow a CU for one or a few industries. @CER_EU

Christopher Meyer

@SirSocks

6 years

There will be a customs agreement/partnership/understanding/area with the EU. But stop calling it a union, because it only causes confusion with the one enshrined in the EU Treaties. That then triggers Brussels blabber about cherry-picking. Semantics have their use.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

It is hard to imagine that the UK can remain without an FTA with its main trading partner for long. But EU will insist on a withdrawal agreement that delivers no hard border on island of Ireland. That means UK accepting either May's deal..../11

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

Yes, the EU has not impressed on vaccines. The UK has performed well on vaccine roll-out. But that is only one aspect of the pandemic. By other criteria, UK is worst in class - 100,000 dead, economy shrank 11.5% in 2020, budget deficit of 19.5% in 2020.

White Burgundy

@PoliticsVoyeur

4 years

@CER_Grant Anything to say about how the EU are behaving re vaccines? How damaging is this for the reputation of the EU?

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

7) Putin's actions are embarrassing for his friends in Europe, eg Farage, Le Pen, Salvini, Orban. The far right will downplay its ties to him and hope that other factors - fears of immigration, anti-vax sentiment, hostility to greenery - can maintain support for their parties.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

8) The surge in energy prices will hit output and living standards. But in the long run European countries will try harder to reduce their dependency on Russian gas imports (c 40% of EU gas imports are Russian), which will boost renewables and in some countries nuclear power.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

8 years

Ivan Rogers' resignation makes a good deal on Brexit less likely. One of the v few people at top of Brit govt who understand EU. @CER_London

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

In Brussels today, a senior official working on Brexit tells me the chance of UK leaving without a deal is 40%. I think that is way too high: Parliament would bring down any govt that pursued or tried to allow no deal. But I can see why EU doesn't trust UK pols not to screw up.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

In Brussels for meetings with people working on Brexit. They expect Commission draft withdrawal treaty to include v tough language on Ireland. The ‘fallback’ option would oblige UK to keep NI in CU & SM. This will be unacceptable to DUP & Tories. Explosive. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

2) Cut off from West, Russia has no choice but to become junior partner of China. Beijing is ambivalent on invasion - it won't criticise Russia in public and blames the US, but values stability & territorial integrity. It never recognised S Ossetia/Abkhazia or annex'n of Crimea.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

If you are right, and Brexiteers prioritise violence rather than the ballot box, they would have to give up the pretence that they are the democrats.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

7 years

HMT is not trying to stop Brexit. It accepts referendum result but has a legitimate concern to seek a model of Brexit that keeps UK in a customs union. Virtually all serious economic analysis says leaving it has real costs. The UK didn't vote to leave the customs union. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

An important short piece by @davidallengreen on the resignation of HMG's chief legal officer. This attempt to over-rule international law is profoundly embarrassing for many citizens of a land that usually tries to uphold it.

It is legality not policy that pushes a government lawyer to quit

Jonathan Jones resigns, as attorney-general plans non-compliance over Brexit deal

www.ft.com

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

4) Plans for the EU to do more in defence - pushed by Macron - will gather momentum. But European defence will evolve in an Atlanticist, NATO-compatible way, rather than in a Gaullist direction. European defence budgets will rise. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

I recently returned from Paris. Here is my take on French views of the EU (mostly not about Brexit) - a thread. @CER_EU /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

How is COVID-19 changing the EU? As far as I can see, most of the big changes are accelerations of trends that were already visible. Take six of them - a short thread. @CER_EU /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

5) For years German public and political opinion has been hardening towards Russia. Ukraine will push this process a lot further. While Germans will not adopt the interventionist military culture of France/UK they will support tough sanctions and be willing to pay a price.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

6 years

Finally, the big lesson of Brexit is that any country trying to leave will find the process much more complicated, difficult and expensive than anyone imagined. The Brits have probably inoculated others against trying to pursue the same path for at least a generation. /15 ENDS

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Can BJ's plan produce a deal on Brexit? A thread. Summary: there won't be a deal by 19.10 because the plan doesn't work for the EU. And domestic politics won't allow BJ to modify the plan in ways that would work for the EU. /1 @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

9. The question of UK rejoining EU won't be on the political agenda for at least a generation. Many Remainers want to make the best of a bad job & move on. EU wdn't want an application from a country that lacked a national consensus in favour of rejoining - which is far away. /10

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

The EU will not agree to a deal unless NI in effect stays in its customs union. But if BJ were to go there he would lose the support of the DUP and the ERG and therefore be unable to get the deal through Parliament. So there will not be a deal by October 31. /ENDS

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

8 months

At the Invalides to commemorate Delors’ life. I think I am the only Brit at the ceremony.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 months

But the US and the EU are fed up with China's indirect support for Russia's war effort - it is not supplying arms but is selling important components and dual use goods. And buying much oil. The US is threatening sanctions against Chinese banks. This is causing much concern. /6

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

Having spoken to senior people in Brussels on #Brexit , a short thread. They expect the crunch in late Sep or Oct. For now they think @DavidGHFrost lacks a mandate to make the compromises that wd advance the talks. They think HMG divided on whether it wants a deal. @CER_EU /1

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Brave of @OborneTweets to admit he got Brexit wrong and that we should probably Remain in EU. He suggests many other Leavers think the same way.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

3) NATO, strengthened with a core mission of territorial defence, will push extra troops and infrastructure into front-line states. US will recommit to European security (even if Republicans win White House). (Turkey's support for Ukraine will damage its ties to Russia.)

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

7 years

I am glad that @SteveBakerHW will clarify his earlier remarks to the Commons about what was said at the @prospect_uk lunch, and that he accepts the premise of @Jacob_Rees_Mogg 's question was false. Also glad to see the aspersion cast on the integrity of HMT staff removed. @CER_EU

Rt Hon Steve Baker FRSA 🗽

@SteveBakerFRSA

7 years

3/3 I will apologise to Charles Grant, who is an honest and trustworthy man. As I have put on record many times, I have the highest regard for our hard working civil servants. I will clarify my remarks to the House.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

3. Leaving the EU is rather like accession in reverse: when joining EU, a country has to take EU's terms or it doesn't get in. Once UK had set its red lines, EU decided the broad outlines of the deal it would get. EU has ceded on details, but overall shape is what it wanted. /4

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

If BJ really believes that, his ignorance about the thinking in other EU capitals is alarming. Are there people in his entourage who a) know what's going on in the EU and b) are brave enough to speak truth to power?

Tom Newton Dunn

@tnewtondunn

5 years

Boris Johnson believes EU will do a new Brexit deal, but only at the last minute. Otherwise, “Ireland is f*****d”, says a Cabinet minister.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 months

So Russia must not lose - that would be a humiliation for China. By default, China has also become more closely allied with Iran & DPRK, Russia's friends (and suppliers of arms). Being in an axis of autocracies is not where many Chinese officials & academics want to be. /4

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

8 months

I can confirm that I was indeed the only British person at today’s Delors event in Paris.

David Earnshaw

@earnshaw1

8 months

And the answer is: appears Delors biographer (and more) Charles Grant of the @CER_Grant is only Brit representing UK!

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

9) Faced with an external threat, Europeans will work to minimise their internal divisions. Both sides are seeking to avoid confrontation in EU-Poland dispute on rule of law. Similarly the UK & EU will try to avoid a crisis over what to do about Northern Ireland Protocol.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

This evening I tell @BBCcarolynquinn on #Westminsterhour that there is no chance of EU agreeing to scrap Irish backstop. That would mean a hard border in Ireland, endangering Good Friday Agr't. EU would rather see no deal than betray Irish. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 years

1. Getting a free trade agreem't done in less than a year is unusually quick. Both teams of negotiators deserve praise. UK's refusal to extend transition may have helped, by concentrating minds. The cost: great uncertainty for firms, which haven't known what rules to expect. /2

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

2 years

6) In France, though Macron's diplomacy failed, he will get some credit for trying. The crisis helps his re-election bid: international experience has a value. Meanwhile in UK Johnson is safe in short term: hard to change PM in mid-crisis. Tory plotters will bide their time.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

8 months

A nice touch at the end of the Delors ceremony, as the the coffin was carried out of the Invalides: some soft jazz was played. Delors would have approved. He told me Sonny Rollins, the virtuoso saxophonist, was his favourite.

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 months

What drives China's foreign policy is an obsession with the US - and its efforts to stymie China's emergence as a great power, for example through controls on the export of hi-tech goods. Feeling insecure, China's leaders need all the friends they can find. /2

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 months

China's growth was driven by property and construction. But no longer. Xi wants the new driver to be not personal consumption but 'new quality productive forces' - ie, making high-tech goods. Both US & EU fear over-capacity and the dumping of these goods on their markets. /8

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Most people in UK have no idea how hard a Brexit BJ is trying to achieve. His Canada-style FTA version, like what @theresa_may proposed, would give services firms little access to the single market. But unlike her plan it would also exclude manufacturers from single market. /2

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

4 months

They emphasise how China is pro-globalisation and global rules, while Russia, Iran and DPRK are not, and are seeking to undermine the international order. They say China wants to lead the global south, not an axis of autocracies. /5

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Today I spoke to 2 senior officials in BXL. The predominant view seems to be that a no deal Brexit is more likely than any kind of deal or a referendum - because the Tory party is hell-bent on crashing out. The EU sees itself as powerlesss to prevent this outcome. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

7 years

The key point that wasn't even raised during the @BBCRadio4 debate was that if UK stays in a customs unon it solves a large part of the Irish border problem. @CER_EU

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Brexit is not helping Franco-German relations. FRA & GER used to each work with the UK to create a balance v the other. Now they've only each other to get annoyed with. And other members are much warier of Franco-German dominance, without UK to temper FRA's & GER's influence. END

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Charles Grant

@CER_Grant

5 years

Last night at a reception in Manchester a senior banker said to me “It is astonishing that bankers in City & Canary Wharf are often better informed about EU’s workings, intentions & principles than senior people in Westminster & Whitehall.” He is right. @CER_EU

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