@themapbackwards
The line near yonkers is the average new yorker description of Upstate; really I feel like north of Albany-> Binghamton marks the line
Very far out, but worth noting a rather strong signal already on ensembles for a storm by the 15th of February. Very far out? Yes. But consistent on all ensembles + somewhat favorable pattern makes this something to watch for sure.
Violent mesocyclone south of the US border, roughly 100miles away from radar. It’s very possible a violent tornado is ON THE GROUND somewhere in Mexico right now.
Watching a potential widespread Derecho/MCS risk for much of the northeast friday evening, wouldn't be surprised to see a wind-driven enhanced risk by D1
18z GFS says time to wake up. Definitely watching that 6th timeframe for something. Up here, we gotta hope not too much suppression to make it happen though.
@ILikUrCutPoland
Many of you know the Superstorm of ‘93, the Blizzard of ‘78 and others..
But have you ever heard of the blizzard of ‘24?
No? That’s because it hasn’t happened yet.
We will manifest. ❄️
@SCweather_wx
Quick hand-drawn graphic regarding my thoughts about tomorrow's potential severe weather setup in the northeast. There's been a notable uptrend on modeling this evening. Really watching the Connecticut River Valley north of Hartford for tornadoes, as well as all hazards in CPA.
Here's the forecast from my end. Apologize for the messiness. On the southern end, totals are lower as I'm only including what is yet to fall. A fun event underway!
@Chad78077676
Confidence in an impactful storm around the 29th is increasing as a broad signal is becoming visible on the GFS. This will likely be a “pattern flip” event- the question is, is there enough cold to start with to produce wintery precip?
W.....T....F......
that's a -43F 2m temperature anomaly predicted by the CFS in January for Eastern Tennessee.
It puts the freezing line all the way to the Gulf Coast.
I don't put a lot of faith into the exact details verifying here, but it certainly gets my attention when
NO MORE
#SNOW
?! ❄️😮
Not so fast. While the new 12z
#GFS
is offshore with little accumulation, this is EXACTLY where snow-lovers want it to be… 👀
With the potential NW trend in models still to come, it’s important that the storm energy is still there & not “strung out.”
@erikfox2000
Immaturity seems like a boring game, ngl. Grow up. It’s crazy to see the people you criticize for being young acting more like adults than you.
Absolutely no words. Major flooding here in Kingsbridge. Some areas on roads 2’+ deep. Got my first lightning in forever. Wow.
@ReedTimmerAccu
@AWxNYC
@News12BX
Also worth noting the incredible cold being held behind this system as we head into the weekend. By Saturday PM, the upper air temperatures in the Eastern US could very possibly be the coldest south of 60N.
Forecast vs Verification. Pretty proud of it, except for in/ around the NYC area and NNJ where mixing and dryslotting caused problems. It's also not going to be super accurate for NNE but the forecast was more for the I-95.
Here's my current forecast. White lines represent N/S cutoffs; shifts either way *could* increase totals.
Watch the red zone for heaviest accumulations- this is because of a convergence between heavy rates, ample cold air for high ratios, and elevation.
Mid-Atl Folks, Enjoy❄️
Making arrangements for a nice snow chase Sunday AM since this storm is such a close hitter- target area Northern Westchester. Unless this storm trends drastically N/S, expect updates Sunday Morning!