Nor'Easter @Chad78077676 Twitter profile

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Happy anniversary to the storm which fully convinced me I am obsessed with weather. One day we will get something like this again. Let me know if yall have any awesome memories from this!

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@Chad78077676

6 months

GFS finally brings some pieces together and produces a very nice event. Couple important things here: (thread)

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@Chad78077676

5 months

This is no longer a signal it is a storm and a possible major one at that. As I had previously stated (and why you haven't seen too many posts from me) this is an interior favored threat. It begins the pattern change but things are not in place yet. Still, huge jumps every run.

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@Chad78077676

8 months

New Euro control run has SNOW!! Imagine what a relief it would be if we break last years total in early December.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Oh boy do we have a crazy GFS run 350 hours out haha

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@Chad78077676

5 months

GFS ticking slightly south more in line with how the mesoscale models are playing out. We are talking about a very strong storm so there are spots where dynamic cooling can pull off a miracle if you are in the right spot.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

GFS says Merry Christmas. Cheers to many more days of tracking.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

The upcoming pattern change is getting more and more exciting with a cross-polar flow during a -EPO/NAO. Everybody is tired of being fooled in the long ranger so take anything after Jan1 with a grain of salt (this is when the snow would occur) but the pattern change is legit.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Today's weeklies. Honestly very surprising how consistent this signal has been. Really promising stuff.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Let's just say...the 18z GFS had a bit of a crazy run. Pretty far out stuff but it really runs close to the pattern the ensembles are showing. Really hard not to get over-excited here. Still way too far to pay attention to operational runs gotta look at pattern as a whole.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

It is honestly hard to get any better of a look this early on in the winter. Check out that - NAO (+ heights over Greenland) just awesome.

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@Chad78077676

8 months

Newest GFS run gives us some eye candy.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Operational models already picking up on that December 6th timeframe 👀.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

This is one of those things that you might look at and say OTS or not enough cold air or whatever. The truth is with minimal changes this would be a really interesting event. You can see the one-run change when that PNA gets pumped more. Something to watch for sure.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Regular ensembles now in range and in complete agreement with what the weeklies have been showing. All in

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@Chad78077676

7 months

What is the opposite of torch?

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@Chad78077676

6 months

People are canceling winter when they don't see what they want in operational runs. Just look at the difference 200 hours out between the Euro and GFS. GFS showed a snowstorm at 6z and poof gone at 12z. Gotta stop living and dying by every single run. Thread:

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@Chad78077676

7 months

It is honestly hard to get any better of a look this early on in the winter. Check out that - NAO (+ heights over Greenland) just awesome.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Not exactly in a very fun time period right now. Nothing on the horizon tracking-wise. Long-range models hint at a -NAO redeveloping starting the second week of FEB. Long range but no reason to call off winter especially considering FEB is our snowiest month on average.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Nobody likes hearing pattern change coming in 2 weeks but every single weekly and now the long-range ensembles have been showing exactly that. If all goes to plan we could be looking at a storm signal come Feb 15. Even the long range OP is showing a similar look.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Happy New Year people 😜! While I still favor interior a lot here, there are worlds where the coast cashes in. Here’s to another year of tracking 🥂

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Really beautiful blocking here.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Happy Thanksgiving to every weather nerd out there. Super thankful for all the followers I have gained recently. Gonna post some eye candy of a potential time-frame of interest that others have also noted. Both the GFS and Euro are onto it.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

First big time fantasy storm here on the GFS. Absolutely only eye candy atp. Gonna have my first forecast out tonight for the Tue-Wed system.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

The blocking signal is getting much stronger. Pattern flip still looks very much on schedule! I think for once we might be looking at a pattern that doesn't just instantly fall apart thanks to our Aleutian low. Bigger storm chances come a little after the initial flip.

Nor'Easter

@Chad78077676

5 months

Nobody likes hearing pattern change coming in 2 weeks but every single weekly and now the long-range ensembles have been showing exactly that. If all goes to plan we could be looking at a storm signal come Feb 15. Even the long range OP is showing a similar look.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

EPS shifting still south while at the same time growing more confident on the highest totals. Love to see it.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

A good visual way of showing what everyone is waiting for when saying the pacific jet has to retract. We need those + heights to get over to Alaska so that we can get some cold air our way. Current extended modeling has this around New Years.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Latest euro is noticeably south! In orange I have circled the areas consistently showing the highest amounts. Green is an area I think currently has the highest uncertianly. This includes not only NYC but coastal CT.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

It did it again 👀! We are still far out to live and die by each run but it is nice to see a little consistency of course. I will go into more detail tomorrow about what needs to happen. Hope the Euro gives us something. Good night yall

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@Chad78077676

6 months

GFS finally brings some pieces together and produces a very nice event. Couple important things here: (thread)

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@Chad78077676

4 months

You know time is running out and the pattern is looking slim when the euro extended looks like this:

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@Chad78077676

7 months

GFS is really showing a nice pattern and so have all models over the last few days. There is no "pattern getting pushed back". However, it would be wishful thinking on the east coast to expect significant snowfall this early in the winter. We are also in an unfavorable MJO -

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@Chad78077676

6 months

12z Megathread update for 1/7! Gonna show the euro here since it represents the middle of guidance pretty well between the CMC and GFS. My thoughts continue to be the same with the interior being favored...But all solutions are still completely on the table.

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@Chad78077676

8 months

Check out this upper air pattern for the end of November into early December! Obviously too early to be a forecast or to even have a good guess, but something like this would come with early snow for the east coast!

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@Chad78077676

5 months

A look at our total snowfall so far this winter. The hope is this looks a little different come mid march...

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Euro weeklies are absolutely wonderful starting right before the holidays. Could be picking up on that phase 8 and 1 MJO which we are currently in the process of cycling back to. A large reason why it appears mid December could be on the warmer side.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Long-range post. End of the month we see a possible interior snowstorm. (More on that later). After that it's all about re-establishing a -NAO. Nobody wants to hear it but eventually, the western trough will cut under the Alaskan ridging and we will slowly set our selves up.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Thread: A very promising pattern is on the horizon. Massive -NAO is coming (as well as a cutter unfortunately). Our first shot but a bit of a longshot comes on the 13th. After, it's game on as that will be when the blocking decays which is usually when we get our big ones.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

This is the type of pattern we *could* possibly see if the pattern change is verified. Suppression becomes the issue, but personally I would take that over a cutter 100%. Still way too far out to take any operational runs seriously. Just want to see the ensembles stay consistent.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Oh boy GFS ensemble just really raised the mean. I mean we are looking at a very crazy week of tracking. GFS OP had a nice hit. CMC is still north of all other guidance but did get a little less amped. This map represents where the heaviest snow is expected pretty well.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Euro ensembles starting to pick up on the signal. It's operational and the GFS also have similar looks.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

There will be enough cold around.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

1st snowmap: Major winter storm coming to the northeast! Pretty confident on the spots of highest snowfall. Depending on how the storm pivots there might be certain spots closer to the coast that see a wet 2-4 but that would be added closer in time. Updating tomorrow night.

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@Chad78077676

8 months

300 hours out but gotta give to the GFS it had something similar at 6z! Not realistic yet at all but had to post the first true I-95 bomb we have seen on a model!

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@Chad78077676

5 months

To tuck or not to tuck: VDAY storm megathread! Outlined below is the region favored for heaviest snow totals. Major storm possible for SNE!

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Cold is out by Tuesday. Week-long warmth is approaching..BUT there is some hope as we close out the month on the 30-31st.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Been a few days so felt like an update was due. Pattern change coming with the upcoming storm on the 28th. First week of Jan will present multiple opportunities for snow as cold will finally be more available. A time period I am watching right now would be the 2-3rd and 5th-6th.

Nor'Easter

@Chad78077676

6 months

The upcoming pattern change is getting more and more exciting with a cross-polar flow during a -EPO/NAO. Everybody is tired of being fooled in the long ranger so take anything after Jan1 with a grain of salt (this is when the snow would occur) but the pattern change is legit.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

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@Chad78077676

8 months

This is kinda crazy. GFS ens precip map. So essentially all 50 members average type of precip for this time.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

EPS showing some life. Yes mixing problems are there but we still have a decent shot of seeing the most snow we have seen in years.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Normally you associate the troughs over Alaska and the West Coast with - PNA's and + EPOs which means warmth in the eastern US but in this case that is very evident - NAO will not allow any sort of "torch".

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@Chad78077676

5 months

My hunch for the first shot on a biggie would be a wave around the 20th. Great block and 50/50 signal with nowhere to go.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

The big issue with why we are not seeing anything "linking up" to create a nice storm is that the southern stream and the northern stream are so cut off. Not a recipe for success. Both euro and CMC are a little different. Models all over the place still.

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@Chad78077676

8 months

I have been saying watch Thanksgiving for a while now...

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Here is the blend for all 3 ensembles! Euro and now the GEPS are on board with a possible coastal storm. GFS has a slightly different progression but it is slowly getting on board.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Euro was about to do something similar to the GFS. Signal only getting stronger.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

If you have been following the long range pattern yourself, or listening to the opinions of many online, you probably will have heard of the "hype" for a pattern chance around Christmas. I myself tweeted about it. As you can see, the pattern has been completely killed.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Brief break as we wait for the new model runs on 1/7 we can go back to discussing the long range. All ensembles agree on a strong -NAO developing after a cutter on the 10th which could potentially set up the east coast for late Jan. Major implications for mid/late Jan pattern.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

It could get seriously severe Sunday night/overnight

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@Chad78077676

6 months

It's not the look of an incoming blizzard but it's not nothing either. 3 major ensemble mean snowfall through the two possible events we are watching 4-5 and 7th of Jan. Going to need to get lucky with certain things sort of a "thread the needle" set up and not just for NYC.

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@Chad78077676

4 months

Our incoming clipper has pretty clearly trended better for those on the northern edge including NYC! Snow map coming soon.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

The pattern has felt boring for sure. This could change with a storm coming next weekend. All models are onto the same idea. Possible inverted powerful trough. Way to early to say where and what exactly but it's looking like a very strong storm.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

GFS vs Euro pretty decent agreement this far out. Powerful storm.

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@Chad78077676

1 year

@v_ppooww @VioletRa1n @JamesA87plus @MiaCathell Great response. Don’t tweet something stupid if you have no idea what you are talking about.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Ensemble spreads! Euro on the L GFS on the R. Watching a potential winter storm impacting anywhere from the mid-Atlantic up through the interior NE. Interior is still favored but not for long if trends continue. Thread:

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Here is the National blend of models through our first event Tuesday. Currently, I feel a widespread light snow is a pretty good bet. With temps being cold it should stick very well so we could see a widespread 1-3. Just have to keep monitoring trends.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

I have recently seen lots of posts about the 29th timeframe, which I had mentioned before. While yes, the Pacific jet does begin retracting around this time, it does not guarantee immediate cold air. That being said, the pattern is certainly enticing.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Final call. I am all in on a southern solution. Gradient tightened north. Aligned with high res models so far. That being said I do believe there is a shot of a northern tick in real time. My NYC metro specific would be between 6-7 inches. Changeover to snow occurs early morning.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Look familiar? Yeah get ready for round 2. This storm has more upside for 2 reasons: No mixing possible! 2nd, we still have time to see our typical NW trend. I will dive into specifics later today!

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Interior snowstorm is incoming. 2 things to monitor right now is how amped the storm comes in and whether can we get some backend snow. More amped solves both these problems.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Storm thread 1/19: Why I believe this is our best shot to overperform. Last real snow chance last days of the month at least. 1-3, 2-4 is your base. Mesoscale models have won out the last few storms so I will put my trust in them for this one. Trends are looking interesting.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

As I expected. Models really starting to factor these observations in. EPS way south. If these trends continue (no guarantee) fringe areas could get way more interesting.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Something cool that might be happening currently is models are adjusting to current data coming in which has our storm much less amped then modeled. This could be why every model has gone south since 12z so far.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Here is the NWS model for our upcoming storm. Look at how sharp that cutoff is. Iso 6-7 inches would be your boom in central Jersey. This now becomes a nowcast event. As I have been saying 1-3 is your baseline for NYC metro and leave room to overperform.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Something cool that might be happening currently is models are adjusting to current data coming in which has our storm much less amped then modeled. This could be why every model has gone south since 12z so far.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Sick and it's a weekend so lets have some fun diving into our next (longshot but potential) timeframe.

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@Chad78077676

4 months

Hi-Res guidance beginning to pick up on heavy banding. For us in NYC or anyone on the northern edge, this would be your best bet at overachieving. The crazy part is NYC has a chance of getting more out of this then Tuesday.

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@Chad78077676

4 months

You can put away those winter coats for a while. You might need need them during the later half of the second week of march as then is when we could possibly see winter return.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

All models have been trending to more of an ana-front solution. This lowers the wind risks and increases backend snowfall!

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Here is your window plain and simple 🤷‍♂️.

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@Chad78077676

8 months

If you want to know what hype really looks like, here it is. Not gonna lie this is super fun to look at. Euro control through late December.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Temps are crashing. All that slush on the sidewalks and roads is about to become ice. Watch out.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

It is vital to look at the overall pattern instead of hugging every model run. I have been very high on this upcoming pattern and continue to be so. EPS is very aggressive with a coastal storm as our first event (16-17th) highlighting how even the I-95 could get in on this.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Here is your window plain and simple 🤷‍♂️.

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@Chad78077676

8 months

The first 6 days of November. Last year on the left and this year on the right.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Not a complete consensus yet but this is relatively consistent and shouldn't make it a super headache forecast. Not a large event but with temps in the 20's during rush hour along with light/mod snow we could potentially have a pretty slow morning considering it has been years.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

It’s always disappointing to see long range modeling slowly slip away from large totals to the point where you forget how exciting even a coating can be. ❤️❄️ (Central Park)

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@Chad78077676

5 months

There is really nothing exciting me about the 5th timeframe. A couple more shifts like this and you don't even see the 50/50 low. Other problems include how the storm is going to struggle like crazy to gain latitude. The pattern never supported. Move on unless you are in the SE

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Yeah...150 hours out but the models are not handling the vort/vort split very consistently and none agree with each other. Big mess.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Confidence has grown in this pattern change. Again I will say that this doesn't mean immediate snow as it will take time to get some cold air, but at least the AK ridge will stop the flow of mild pacific air. Big step in the right direction. First week of Jan looks active.

Nor'Easter

@Chad78077676

6 months

I have recently seen lots of posts about the 29th timeframe, which I had mentioned before. While yes, the Pacific jet does begin retracting around this time, it does not guarantee immediate cold air. That being said, the pattern is certainly enticing.

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@Chad78077676

8 months

Member of the day. #14 on the CMC who says no

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@Chad78077676

5 months

GFS ticks slightly north overall mostly due to a different angle of approach. More backside phasing and other shenanigans caused it. CMC looks amazing.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Good morning all. Impressive confidence with the GFS ensemble. You can see the heaviest axis of snow is consistent with the EPS as well. Getting into mesoscale and trusting OP runs more soon.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Welp...here it is

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@Chad78077676

6 months

Normally the 3rd model people look at but I gotta say it has shown the most consistency over the last few runs. GFS has really not been good. Corrected slightly stronger and I expect it to continue doing so. That cut-off is going to be very very sharp.

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@Chad78077676

6 months

1/16-1/17 thread: Plenty cold on the coast possibly bringing people first real measurable snowfall. It is still far out for specific numbers but I would lean more of a minor-moderate event. 1/20 brings you that chance for a major but we will talk about that later 👀!

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@Chad78077676

6 months

18z GFS (and icon sorta) bring up a shift that the EPS actually alluded to. Much weaker storm due to it being kicked up early and sheared out. There is a chance this is what you want to see if you are on the coast. 0z will be telling.

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@Chad78077676

7 months

Here is the latest on the MJO: If this verifies, we can look at the last couple days of DEC/early Jan with real optimism.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Central Park is beautiful today.

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@Chad78077676

4 months

Guidance currently showing a powerful cutter in the middle of next week. This has the potential for some serious severe weather.

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@Chad78077676

8 months

Oh boy. The GFS has just moved itself even farther from the Euro and the CMC showing a potential NorEaster for that Thanksgiving timeframe.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Our set up for this weekends minor event starts with a cold air injection from a clipper system. Currently this looks to target the mid-Atlantic. Could see widespread 1-3/2-4. NYC is on the northern edge currently. Will monitor trends.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Things are going as planned. Once that trough undercuts a forming Alaskan ridge we might see a vort eject and cause a potential EC/MA threat.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Long-range post. End of the month we see a possible interior snowstorm. (More on that later). After that it's all about re-establishing a -NAO. Nobody wants to hear it but eventually, the western trough will cut under the Alaskan ridging and we will slowly set our selves up.

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@Chad78077676

5 months

Monitoring two possible minor events. The first one is a clipper Thursday overnight. This favors Interior NE and possibly some of SNE. Then we have a slider on Saturday which has more potential for those south.,

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