𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪 @0xTroyTrades Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

@0xTroyTrades

1,497

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Derivatives Trader & Macro Hobbyist 📈 Own and race Standardbred horses 🐴 Passionate about fitness 🏃‍♂️

Canada

Joined February 2021

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

Opinion Piece (w/ Data): High Rates are Stimulative in Current Regime – Rate Cuts Likely Mark the Top for Financial Markets First off, I want to make it clear that I know rate cuts are typically *correlated* to market crashes & a rising unemployment/recession and that it does

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@crazyclipsonly A spotter wouldn't have been able to do anything about that though. The outcome would've been the exact same. Just an unfortunate accident.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@CollinRugg This guy needs to be fired immediately. Absolutely useless.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@crazyclipsonly He literally did everything possible wrong: 1. Never use clips if benching alone 2. Always roll the bar AWAY from your neck 3. Don't ego lift weights obviously too heavy for you

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@jakepaul Common bro. I admire the belief you have in yourself, but let's be real here; Canelo would absolutely merk you. Let's focus on beating Tommy Fury first lol...

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@BillyM2k 26 letters in the alphabet 13 in a baker's dozen 50 states in the USA 52 cards in a deck 9 justices in the Supreme Court 8 sides on a stop sign 5 digits in a zip code

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@chris_diggity @crazyclipsonly Most people don't do that though. It's an ego thing. Nobody wants people to think the spotter is helping at all, so they tell them to only touch the bar upon obvious failure.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@erichamilton_ @crazyclipsonly Most spotters don't put their hands anywhere near the bar unless they see the guy struggling though.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

2008 #GreatFinancialCrisis Eerily similar vibes between now and then. Remember the market always rallies the hardest heading into major economic & financial downturns (1929, 1970, 1973, 2000, 2008, etc.). Stay vigilant. #StockMarket

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@unusual_whales The only way this happens is with an absolute CRASH landing in the economy. I'm telling you, this would NOT be bullish like you think it would.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@DylanLeClair_ Well obviously lol. Retail has no money right now.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@KobeissiLetter Over a trillion in debt needs to be re-financed in 2024. People's payments will be doubling/tripling. This metric is going to absolutely skyrocket along with auto/credit card delinquencies.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

6 months

@WallStreetSilv And what's Trudeau's solution to this cost of living crisis? Raise the carbon tax by another 23% on April 1st. 🤡

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

➡️ Heading into 2024: Final Thoughts on Bitcoin, Crypto, & US Equities ⬅️ Reminder: I’m only sharing this because this is what I love, and I’m passionate about it. I realize nobody wants to hear about any potential corrections or bear cases from here, but I will present mine

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@j0rgeaquino @nypost What do you think? Hmmm

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

@financialjuice It's only nailed 8/8 of the last recessions lol

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@Trader_XO Lol, you know what's funny, bro? I've watched probably 100s of macro podcasts over the past year. Most guests have been involved with macro for decades. You've been more correct than all of them. No joke. Well done mate!

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@dampedspring The market has priced in the most favorable outcome possible with monetary policy, 25% earnings growth over the next 2 years, an absolutely perfect landing with the economy, record new stimmy check issuance, and sunshine & rainbows for eternity at this point... Fairytale land

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@woonomic Atleast be transparent though, Willy. It wasn't the ETF that lead to that run up in gold; that was one of the largest commodity bull markets ever. All commodities went parabolic during that time, not just gold.

@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

$BTC Spot ETF Seeing many people talk about how successful the first US spot gold ETF ( $GLD ) was for gold's price in 2004, however it's important to note that its release coincided w/ a massive commodity bull-market ('00 - '08). All commodities went PARABOLIC, not just gold.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@TimmerFidelity The yield curve wasn't even inverted in 1994-1995....this is a huge distinction that's worth mentioning.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

Here's one excerpt from @hussmanjp 's new paper. HIGHLY recommended you read it:

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

What's going on here, boys!? 😅😅 @Ninjascalp @ExitLiqCapital

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

$BTC Spot ETF Seeing many people talk about how successful the first US spot gold ETF ( $GLD ) was for gold's price in 2004, however it's important to note that its release coincided w/ a massive commodity bull-market ('00 - '08). All commodities went PARABOLIC, not just gold.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@100trillionUSD Hmm orange marked the top in 2019...interesting. Aligns very well with my thesis.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@RJRCapital There's always a melt-up at the end of every business cycle after the Fed pause & as yields initially come down. Watch what happens in H1 2024 though.

@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

US10Y vs $SPX At the end of previous business cycles, once the 10Y yield tops, equities usually have one final rally before following the yield down. Both rallies set new ATHs at the time. 2007 Rally: 15.15% 2000 Rally: 17.23%

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

6 months

@ThinkingBitmex Capo long, Satto short....who wins!?

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@ronmortgageguy 2025 can't come soon enough...

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@jameslavish God help us

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

@DariusDale42 Can confirm, Darius has been in tune with these markets more than anyone these past few years. Not even close, really.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@WallStreetSilv $50 ain't that bad lol. Come to Canada, it's $75+.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

@Joshyysmartt Alts will always show weakness with BTC over 55%...that's normal. Gotta wait for BTC to finish doing its thing before alts can fly. Stake & chill...

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

@BJdichter @therealhebrahim I live in Canada, and this is very much real. Vancouver, BC It's usually private companies, but with support from the Canadian government.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@CryptoPoseidonn The second he flips long, I'm shorting with my entire net worth ($182.90).

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

6 months

Fed Liquidity to Decline, Equities Primed for Pullback in Q2 (~10%) This current rally in BTC & US equities has been extremely impressive to say the least. It has blown through many of even the most bullish forecasts for the year already, and we’re only in March. It has been

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@LynAldenContact This is why investors want a Fed pivot so badly, because they know extreme money printing is the only way this thing continues up from here. Most overvalued stock market vs GDP since 1929 if I'm not mistaken.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@stclairashley @CabelloAuden The US will soon experience what we've been dealing with in Canada for the past several years. Spoiler alert: it's not great, at all.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@ledgerstatus That's because retail is broke right now, struggling to survive and buy basic necessities. Nobody has money to speculate on risk, especially when rates are this high and credit is contracting. $2,000/month stimmies are no longer a thing lol

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@NorthmanTrader Same thing happened in Q3 1981 at the beginning of a 1.5 yr long recession. 1980-1981 is one of the only prior ends of business cycles that mimic the current yield curve inversion in terms of length & depth. This also occurred while the 10Y-03M YC dis-inverted, like now.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@NorthmanTrader Vast majority are still expecting this to continue much higher from here without a substantial correction. I just find it hilarious. Goodluck without massive money printing from the Fed which isn't coming without a hard landing.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

6 months

Updated US Liquidity Picture - Heading into Q2 So far leading up to this point of the cycle, liquidity conditions have remained favorable for several reasons: -the RRP facility has absorbed the Fed balance sheet run-off (QT) -the QRA has shifted to a higher % bills -the Fed

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@RJRCapital It's not THAT dovish. 3 cuts? That's nothing really & anybody who has to refinance next yr (trillion +) will still have their payments double or triple. Also, we still haven't seen the full lags & he plans on continuing QT even after cuts to decrease bank reserves (liquidity).

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@Trader_XO @TXMCtrades @PrimeXBT XO x TXMC combo is literally peak alpha. iykyk It's going down, everybody better be tuning into this one!

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

8 months

So, Where Are We in the Current #Bitcoin Cycle?🤔 I’m writing this post because I keep seeing people compare current price action to late 2020, early 2021 where we went up only into a blow-off top & saw glorious alt-seasons with 100-1000x’s all over the place. I’ve compiled some

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@nebyalous @crazyclipsonly That's facts, but nobody actually puts hands anywhere near the bar anymore unless they see dude struggling.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

US10Y vs $SPX At the end of previous business cycles, once the 10Y yield tops, equities usually have one final rally before following the yield down. Both rallies set new ATHs at the time. 2007 Rally: 15.15% 2000 Rally: 17.23%

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@Tradermayne TA is so clean if Oct closes above July's high, but I'm skeptical. BTC very overpriced for: -2.5% real rates -strong dxy (won't change unless recession) -un-inverting yield curve -⬇️ global liquidity -H1 2024 recession -equities topping Still cautious; short-term trades only.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@Ksidiii This is worst case scenario for everybody. Bulls included. Stagflation, low real-growth, sustained high rates, re-inversion of the yield curve, overall sideways markets. Brutal. 🤮

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@DeItaone They're starting to realize Biden stands no chance in a straight up election against Trump. Watching for this strategy to potentially backfire hard though. Democrats should find someone else to run instead of interfering with democracy imo.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@ByzGeneral The cartel is very real

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@ManyBeenRinsed Trudeau is easily one of the worst leaders of all time. He never directly answers any questions people ask him, but rather just deflects & goes off on a tangent. His replies provide zero clarity & make zero sense. Everything he says is bullsh*t and completely scripted.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

8 months

@financialjuice It always starts as a soft landing. Every time.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@jasongofficial tHeRe'S nO sUpPlY bros in absolute shambles right now.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@NorthmanTrader 2024 version: When you bought the dip, but it keeps on dipping.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@MichaelAArouet Everybody is still living in the QE/ZIRP mindset, thinking that equties are the only alternative & that they only go up ~10%/year. Eventually, that will change, but it's hard to deny how addictive QE/easy money has been for folks regardless of the consequences.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@clipsthatgo @crazyclipsonly Dudes on the other side of those mountains be like:

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

5 months

UPDATED US LIQUIDITY PICTURE (Q2 + BEYOND) Before we entered Q2, I mentioned we'd likely see liquidity peak + decline and thus see a correction in risk assets across the board. We've now seen that, so what happens now? Based on everything I'm seeing with liquidity, Q2 overall

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

Updated Thoughts on US Equities & Crypto: Key Things to Watch Moving into Q2 If you look at Bitcoin from a game theory perspective, it makes sense that this cycle has been more left-translated. When the whole world knows the halving is coming, it's only logical that everyone

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@Husslin_ It's also important to note that the move in gold came off the back of a massive, decade-long commodity bull market. They all went parabolic, not just gold.

@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

$BTC Spot ETF Seeing many people talk about how successful the first US spot gold ETF ( $GLD ) was for gold's price in 2004, however it's important to note that its release coincided w/ a massive commodity bull-market ('00 - '08). All commodities went PARABOLIC, not just gold.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@TraderNJ1 Glad someone's finally mentioning this, & also it's not just liquidity, my bro. Wait for the credit /sovereign debt crisis.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@Pentosh1 If it comes down to the last day, it will be 100% priced in. The edge is in an early approval atm.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

@tradinglord This would be the worst possible scenario for plebs. The altseason would be so pathetic because it would be mainly BTC spot ETF driven. Retail is completely tapped out right now, no credit expansion, no easy money. Really hope it doesn't happen like this...

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

Fed minutes confirmed what I've been highlighting for a while now: "The staff also noted that once the ON RRP facility is either depleted or stabilized at a low level, reserves will decline at a pace comparable with the runoff of the Federal Reserve’s securities portfolio, all

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@JonFlynnREstats STRs, house flippers, foreign investment, second/third homes, etc. - it's all a house of card now that the era of free money is over.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

$BTC / D3 Just wanted to remind everyone what initially happens to #Bitcoin when the Fed decides to pivot (i.e. turn on the printer). We went on to correct ~67% from there w/ the first rate cut marking the pico-top of the rally. Initially, this is a bearish signal because it

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

Hiking Cycle - Why Would This Time Be Different? Red = Yield Curve (10Y-3M) Green = Unemployment Rate Black = $SPX Key Points: 1. Notice how the pause/pivot (blue box) always lines up around peak inversion & peak market price (2019-2020 took a little longer because the Fed was

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@NorthmanTrader Nobody is expecting a recession right now. Wait for H1 2024 after the RRP is fully drained & the lag effects begin to take hold.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@RJRCapital Exactly. And it won't take more than a mild recession to cause a significant correction (just like 2000) considering equities are currently priced for 25% earnings growth & a PERFECT soft landing over the next 2 years.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

@Barchart $1000 by end of next week you mean?

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

@nestayxbt 2019 is the only fractal that makes sense from a contextual perspective. -end of business cycle -inverted yield curve -fed pause -> rate cuts -0.618 retracement

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

6 months

@POTUS Stop the record peacetime budget deficits. You're accruing over $1 TRILLION in sovereign debt every 100 days. This is unsustainable long term; it's the reason Inflation has bottomed and is becoming entrenched above 3% y/y.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@TheFlowHorse Very impressive. The sign of an experienced trader is the ability to counter-trade oneself. Great self-awareness sir. 🤝

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

4 months

@Nebraskangooner Show me one bear please...just one. Even Capo is bullish...

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@geoeconomic10 Yep, Canada being the most indebted nation in the G7 coupled with egregious home prices rolled over at the new interest rate will begin to cause serious problems as the unemployment rate increases. Once it starts, it will be very difficult to stop.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@TXMCtrades LoOk WhAt ThE EtF DiD FoR GoLd, BrOoO... Lol commodities were already in a massive decade-long bull market; it wasn't just gold. The fact is, most serious BTC investors don't need a spot ETF, as they're already fully allocated and self-custody.

@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

$BTC Spot ETF Seeing many people talk about how successful the first US spot gold ETF ( $GLD ) was for gold's price in 2004, however it's important to note that its release coincided w/ a massive commodity bull-market ('00 - '08). All commodities went PARABOLIC, not just gold.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@sung_0701 @gurgavin You realize WHY it's "sidelined" though, right? Investors now have an alternative providing 5%+ risk-free returns at a time when equity risk premia is at its lowest level since 2002.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@LynAldenContact Question then becomes: where does the money come from to continue supporting this ludicrous deficit/treasury issuance?

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@zerohedge This is likely why the last Fed meeting was so dovish. Powell knew things were beginning to crack.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@crypto_iso Futures ETF will be a sell the news event as soon as it launches. Calling it now.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

8 months

@SidSingh_SS @MFHoz And tech stocks aren't "overvalued" again today?? Come on...

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@saxena_puru Excess savings gone and now everything is just 30%+ more expensive. Credit contracting & employment weakening; consumer demand will follow.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@kk_capital @ByzGeneral Then buy spot, don't long futures lol

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

6 months

@peckerponzi Definately gotta be close to a local top for sure...all the signs are there.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

6 months

$BTC (2019-2020) VS. CURRENT You may be noticing recently that #Bitcoin has been showing relative weakness vs equities, which have been on a historic tear. Now, this may not continue, but it is something I'm monitoring. That's because something similar happened back in 2019

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

5 months

$BTC / H4 I'm still not convinced this recent move up is going to lead to any *substantial* breakout for #Bitcoin until I see one of four things playout: 1. $BTC.D needs to increase substantially to 55%+, basically Bitcoin-only season (money will need to come out of altcoins in

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

8 months

@INArteCarloDoss Fed still is the joke of the town, but yeah point taken.🤝

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

Key Points: 1. Peak YC inversion (orange cloud) always signals very close to a market top (sometimes marks the pico-top like in 2000). 2. Fed cuts rates as the market falls and then recession begins not long after YC dis-inverts. 3. Unemployment is tightest at peak YC inversion

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

5 months

@WarrenPies They're definately spot on with the car insurance number. Mine has been skyrocketing due to increases in number of vehicle thefts. No accidents, no tickets.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@geoeconomic10 Evergrande bankruptcy contagion will be massive. Lehman moment.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

6 months

CREATING AN EXIT STRATEGY #Bitcoin I'm not even sure if Chimp is serious here because his account is full of satire, but I wanted to use this thread to make a point: Say, for argument's sake, that this was the top for $BTC. What's your plan? Would you make it out in profit? I

@ThinkingBitmex

ChimpZoo

@ThinkingBitmex

6 months

Tops are hard to call No one can perfectly call a top tick, but I believe Bitcoin is within the margin of error of a top I believe we have sufficient reasons to believe this is a top, and in hindsight will say it was obvious Lets break down all the reasons why 🧵

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@scottmelker Just wait until the unemployment rate begins to increase and trillions in debt is rolled over at the new interest rate in 2024 & 2025.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

1 year

@WinfieldSmart This guy nailed the bottom in October too calling for a melt-up.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

10 months

@FedGuy12 Lacy Hunt explains it well in this video in the subsection titled "Fiscal Impulse".

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'Deep Dive' With Danielle DiMartino Booth and Lacy Hunt - Navigating...

'Deep Dive' With Danielle DiMartino Booth and Lacy Hunt - Navigating Turbulent Markets | HedgeyeA MUST-SEE CONVERSATION. YOU��RE INVITED.Join Quill Intelligen...

www.youtube.com

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@PierrePoilievre Get us out of this mess, Pierre. This is your moment! 8 years of Trudeau has crippled this country, and everyone I talk to is ready for a change.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

@JackFarley96 Investors will find a way to justify literally any multiple that it reaches in this bubble. Then, when things eventually crash/burn, everyone will look back, laugh, & say how obvious it all was in hindsight. Book it, Jack!🤝

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

9 months

@endless_frank The period of the business cycle is called complacency & "return to normal" for a reason. It traps everybody.

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𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

8 months

@NorthmanTrader Yep, exactly. They're supposed to be doing 95B/month QT, but their balance sheet hasn't budged. Once again the Fed is all bark and no bite.

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

8 months

@ThinkingUSD $SYN

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

6 months

Very Important March FOMC Meeting Tomorrow Here are a two key things to watch. They will be what investors are focused on at this meeting: 1. Hawkish revision to the dot plot regarding FOMC participants' assessment of appropriate monetary policy. At the December 2023 meeting,

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

11 months

@PARABOLIT Think the relative strength persists until the ETF approval. Then it's sell the news/H1 2024 recession to 23k before a Fed pivot kicks off the REAL bull. *just sharing so I can retweet for clout, not because you give a sh*t about my opinion lol*

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@0xTroyTrades

𝕋𝕣𝕠𝕪

7 months

US LIQUIDITY UPDATE + #BITCOIN Yesterday we saw one of the largest daily drawdowns from the RRP facility: 112B. The ON RRP is basically excess cash in the financial system that banks/MMFs park at the Fed for an overnight rate of 5.30% (annually). It drains when the Treasury

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