Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name @01Core_Ben Twitter profile

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

6 months

Biotech is going to have its ChatGPT moment sometime in the next 5 years. Figuring out the human body is quickly being turned into a compute problem AND the expense of that compute is falling faster than Moore's law (chart and text snippet from @Noahpinion article yesterday -

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$GOOG has 9 products with 1 billion+ users: 1. Search 2. Google Play Store 3. YouTube 4. Gmail 5. Maps 6. Photos 7. Drive 8. Android 9. Chrome An Absolute Beast

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Google ($GOOG) has some disgusting market share figures: Search: 91% (3.6B+ users) Maps (Inc Waze): 79% (1B+) Android: 71.6% (3B+) Chrome: 65.52% (2.7B) Gmail: 36.5% (1.8B) Google Play: 36% (2.5B) Workspace products that compete with $MSFT 365 @ near 20% market share too.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$AMZN AWS grew 40% YoY -Driverless cars aren't here yet -Machine learning is still early -AI isn't here yet -IoT isn't here yet -5G isn't here yet What if AWS grows 30% through 2030? 2030 Rev: $700B 30% margin: $210B Valuation @ 30 multiple: $6.3T - just for AWS It's possible

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$AMZN's logistics SIDE HUSTLE will likely overtake $UPS this quarter or next Amazon's ad SIDE HUSTLE is 3X as big as $TWTR, $SNAP and $PINS combined Amazon's subscriptions SIDE HUSTLE is bigger than $NFLX AWS will hit $80+B in rev this year... $AMZN is the SIDE HUSTLE King.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

TikTok is attacking: 1. Facebook 2. Instagram 3. YouTube 4. Netflix 5. Amazon (eCom / Prime Video) 6. The minds of Generation Z TikTok is 100% controlled by the CCP as are all companies in China, and its US competitors are banned from China. Ban it $META, $GOOG, $AMZN, $NFLX

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$AMZN is my second largest position after $GOOG and will be the subject of my next post. Amazon will likely overtake UPS in package volume in Q1, 2022. Amazon might have the strongest moat of any company, this is part of it...

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

What highly profitable business models are dominated by only a few companies - e.g. 1. Digital Ads: $META, $GOOG, $AMZN, $AAPL (soon) 2. Railroads: $UNP, $CSX, $NSC 3. Rating Agencies: $MCO, $SPGI 4. Cloud: $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOG 5. Exchanges: $ICE, $CME

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

The biggest threat to… $TSLA: Valuation $GOOG: Apple $AAPL: Regulators $MSFT: Regulators $TSM: Geopolitics $AMZN: Jassy $META: Zuck Agree/disagree in comments

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

3 months

Apple spent ~$10 Billion on their car project. Tesla's total R&D spend from 2009 to 2017 when the model 3 launched was ~$4.2 Billion. Tesla's total R&D spend didn't cross $10 billion until midway through 2021. Hilariously, Tesla's R&D spend wouldn't have put it in the top 12

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

This will be an ongoing thread listing synthetic monopolies (SMs) and their market share, ordered initially by average market cap of the SM: Computer operating systems: $MSFT: 76% $AAPL: 15.3% Total: 91.3% Mobile operating systems: $GOOG: 71.6% $AAPL: 27.8% Total: 99.4%

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

New post on THE CLOUD is up: How big could it get? I draw comparisons to electricity, go through a Netflix case study, explain why the "base-layer" makes the cloud unique among transformational innovations, and more...

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@7yhy I promise never to ask Santa for another present ever if this happens today

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$META is spending more money on speculative research BY FAR than any company in history. There is no precedent. Similar amounts have been spent on capex only by a few companies - and they were building physical things. It is the biggest YOLO bet in history. I'm here for the ride.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Top 10 products by # of users: 1. Search (Google): 3.6B 2. Android (Google): 3B 3. Facebook (Meta): 3B 4. Chrome (Google): 2.7B 5. WhatsApp (Meta): 2.2B 6. YouTube (Google): 2.1B 7. Instagram (Meta): 2B 8. Gmail (Google): 1.8B 9. Windows (Microsoft): 1.5B 10.iPhone (Apple): 1.2B

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

3 months

@burny_tech Yes, regulation “leadership”

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$AMZN revenue growth and key milestones:

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Could $AMZN AWS, $MSFT Azure, and $GOOGL GCP grow at 20-30% for a decade? Yes... Cloud growth mostly comes from migrations today, but over time growth will come to be driven by new cloud-native businesses and use cases that aren't even on people's radars today...

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$AMZN is down 50%+ this year, $MSFT is down 30%+, $GOOGL is down nearly 40%. Seems like a good time to remind everyone that these are the companies that run the cloud - and the cloud runs everything.

How big could the cloud get?

If you’ve read my other posts you know that I like to explain things through analogies.

01core.substack.com

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@paulg Idk about 36 million, but 2 million people are using chat GPT and I think 1 billion people will be using digital personal assistants functionally equivalent to humans within 10 years

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$GOOG has invested 17X as much into healthcare startups YTD ($1.7B) as $AAPL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN combined ($100M)

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Tried out $META new pro headset today. I believe this form factor is a game changer, first for productivity and secondarily for entertainment. Watching movies was great, and having three giant monitors while appearing to be on a peaceful beach was wild.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Once $MSFT acquisition of $ATVI closes it will become the second largest gaming company by revenue, second only to $TCEHY (China's Tencent). Top 5: 1. Tencent: $27 billion 2. Microsoft: $25.1 3. Sony: $24.9 4. Nintendo: $15.3

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $FB etc are businesses with no MOATS, weak balance sheets, terrible management, and facing huge headwinds from the multi-decade trend of technology becoming less and less relevant to daily life. Selling my positions Monday (just had this epiphany this morning)

Marty Chargin

@MartyChargin

2 years

$MSFT $GOOGL $NVDA $FB I would say the mega-cap tech stocks have been shot... the patient is bleeding out and the priest and coroner are on their way... all we need is a casket and a hole in the ground...🤣😂💯

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

6 months

We’re entering a golden age of engineering biology

A guest post by Joshua March and Kasia Gora

www.noahpinion.blog

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$AAPL has an in-house semiconductor business that would be one of the biggest companies on earth if it stood alone. It accounted for 25% of $TSM sales last year

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

11 months

@stillgray My favorite line “when pushed on why his company does business in Texas”- as if a company would just write off a state, much less one the size of Texas.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

6 months

If you think it is going to take humanity 50 years to figure something out (a cure for cancer, AGI, etc) - we might be just 11 years away. Before I walk through the math here are a few points worth noting: 1. Some types of compute efficiency (alternatively: the cost of

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$SNAP: "Our biggest opportunity in the future is the thing $META is spending $15 bil a year to dominate." -I paraphrased...

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

7 months

@litcapital They need to bring in the OG of taking down corrupt media: Peter Thiel

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $META $FB $AAPL revenue growth with a dot chart to show how frequently they beat/miss estimates, going back 15+ years:

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

You are getting more optionality for your buck investing in $META than any other business right now. $AMZN and $GOOG in second place. The market is assigning zero value to the optionality in each of these businesses.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$AAPL cares deeply about people’s privacy. That’s why they turned over the text messages, contact lists, photos, and iCloud accounts of 131 million people to the Chinese Communist Party, don’t take my word for it, just read this NYT report:

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@lwoodhouse Meanwhile college students in Ukraine are making Molotov cocktails to fight Russia

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$META enterprise value is $380 billion, less than 3X next year’s expected revenue. $GOOG is 3.5 Metas $AAPL is 6.5 Metas $MSFT is 4.9 Metas

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$ASML is one of three companies on Earth (to my knowledge) that have a $5B+ rev product with 90%+ market share (EUV @100 %), the other two products being $GOOG search and $TSM share of leading-node chips. Am I missing any?

MT Capital

@MT_Capital1

2 years

This accurately portrays how astounding Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) processes are $ASML

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

The biggest money to be made for long term investors is when two things are occurring simultaneously: 1. The market is punishing a stock for a widely understood reason; AND 2. That reason is wrong (continued)

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@yuris @adayeoyh Try cutting out food 4 hours before bed, did wonders for me!

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Three charts that tell you everything you need to know about Amazon $AMZN, and why it is a long term buy. This first chart shows their revenue growth with key milestones. Note that AWS + Ads have now passed 20% of revenue, and were 23.5% last quarter #investing (1/3)

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Lisa don't lie - here's her forecast: $AMD

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

New post is out: "Why hasn't Google launched a competitor to ChatGPT? How will it respond?" #AI #ChatGPT3 $GOOG $AAPL

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

7 months

@adcock_brett 2025 we getting this Brett?

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$AMZN AWS / Revenue growth, Employee and Logistics Network growth, 2yr 19/21 growth rates, fuel losses, current stock drawdown, revenue mix shift, cash tax paid comparison, Jeffries old SOTP margin assumptions - a thread of CHARTS... Starting with AWS Revenue growth

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@coardr The biggest thing I think people don’t understand is how negligible Meta’s terminal value risk is, as I explain in part 1 of my deep dive on the business:

Facebook Deep Dive (Multi-Part Series)

Part 1: It ain't what you think it is

01core.substack.com

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

5 months

Remember how Amazon had 10,000 people on their Alexa team and it still couldn't understand even the most basic queries? Remember how AWFUL Siri still is? Remember what a joke "Hey Google" still is? Had you asked one of the tens of thousands of employees working on these

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

3 months

Some predictions: 1. Trump wins 2. S&P 500 hits 6600 in 2026 3. Nasdaq beats S&P by ~3-5% per year 4. Big Tech as a basket beat the Nasdaq 5. Margins of synthetic monopolies surprise 2 upside 6. AI Bubble starts in 2027 after Apple launches a personalized AI assistant that

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

In the future, everyone will have their genome scanned, and epigenetic testing will become part of your annual physical, and will also be done each time you get sick. Healthcare will run on the cloud... $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@BarrySchwartzBW This will beat it

How to beat the QQQs

(and hence the S&P 500, VTI, etc)

01core.substack.com

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Buying $META is increasingly feeling like investing in a venture capital firm focused exclusively on bleeding edge VR/AR tech. RL labs losses could be as big or bigger than reported profits in 2023, $15B+.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$GOOG is buying back ~$15B of stock per quarter, long term hodlers should be grateful for this drop. Wish I could say the same for $META, I'm expecting to see another quarter of them sitting on their hands indicating a lack of faith in their own future...

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

A positive, true story about how much Facebook $META meant to a paralyzed veteran: I first met 90-year-old WWII veteran Bradley Marsh (name changed for privacy) in 2016. We met on Facebook. Bradley was one of the last surviving soldiers of the Higgins Boat invasions of WWII.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@greg16676935420 Facebook: combination of “face” and “book” Google: an unimaginably large number Microsoft: combination of “microprocessors” and “software” Apple: a friendly looking fruit Amazon: a powerful river Tesla: an inventor TikTok: last sound heard before a deadly explosion

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

8 months

@rmcentush What’s the business model?

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

4 months

News Headlines from 2028: "31% of teenagers surveyed consider their personal AIs to be their best friend" "US tech company becomes the first to hit a $6 Trillion market cap" "Department of Defense orders 100,000 humanoid robot soldiers from Tesla" "SpaceX announces date for

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@amazonholder1 At this point I wouldn’t be surprised to see $FB drop 8% on news that Girl Scout cookie sales were expected to drop YoY

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

I’m thinking it’s official, $Meta targeting is back! I’m visiting my brother in Tampa and we were talking about gyms in the area, saw this ad first thing when I logged into FB, from a gym right around the corner.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

You could buy 1 share of $QQQ for $408 at its peak. Now you can buy 1.35 shares for the same $ price, but $ are worth less so it’s really an even better deal. As surely as the sun rises $QQQ will hit all time highs, and by that time you’ll be up 35%.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@GRDecter Digital personal assistants built on LLMs could be a $1T+ market within 10 years. Fun to think about. Deep dive here if anyone is interested (no paywall):

1 billion new people, but no more mouths to feed. Yet another ChatGPT post.

One way to think about technology is that it is a mechanism for lowering the cost of intelligence. Consider what it took to write a book in the 14th century. First you needed paper. Here’s a descri...

01core.substack.com

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

I've used an $AAPL iPhone since the original came out. As of today I am a $GOOG Android user, having switched to the new Pixel. I'll let you know how it goes...

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Facebook Deep Dive (Part 3: Instagram)

A Big F*cking Business

01core.substack.com

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Google is stupid cheap, and it's not just a search biz anymore... User counts: Search: 3.6b Android: 3b Chrome: 2.65 Play Store: 2.5b YouTube: 2.1b Gmail: 1.8b Drive: 1b+ Maps: 1b+ Photos: 1b+ And btw - these products are used almost 8 trillion hours per year! #GOOGLE

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@alexeheath From “I don’t see why we can’t grow at 50% annually for the next five years” to 20% layoffs. Evan Spiegel is something special. Biggest red flag was when he couldn’t stop talking about how much he supported the Apple privacy fraud.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

5 months

The Synth (my word for a humanoid robot like Tesla's Optimus) industry will at some point be the largest ever by an order of magnitude (AI is not an industry, rather more of a raw material). It will also be the fastest growing, the quickest to reach $1 Trillion in annual revenue,

Sawyer Merritt

@SawyerMerritt

5 months

Tesla Optimus Robot walking speed comparison. May 2023 (left) vs February 2024 (right). Both are real time 1x speed.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

4 months

There are shockingly few companies with market caps between $10B and $20B that have: A) Kept revenues up with inflation B) Don't have declining margins C) Don't have awful balance sheets D) Aren't absolute shitcos E) Aren't in secular decline To be exact, there are 29. What's

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

I find myself using Reels all the time, watching mostly things that make me laugh or videos about stretching/workout methods for specific tennis related maladies I have. I almost never used Instagram before but it is officially higher than Twitter now on mobile. Anyone else?

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@marketplunger1 Synthetic monopolies are a good place to start:

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@waitbutwhy The climax is just getting started. Population and tools drive progress, tools going parabolic too!

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Every time I see someone comparing XYZ economic stat to equity returns I think about this chart @JoinCommonstock posted. How many thousands of things have people worried about over the years? And yet, the little green boxes have dominated the little red ones the whole time

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@cperruna Or just buy the QQQ and beat 95% of hedge funds, the S&P500, even Nancy Pelosi, or even better beat the QQQ:

How to beat the QQQs

(and hence the S&P 500, VTI, etc)

01core.substack.com

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

BREAKING: $AMZN has decided to exit the cloud business after discovering the no one uses software products if the Fed Funds rate is over 4.5%

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

$SNAP: Our ads are the worst performing among our digital peers. We think they work but customers don't trust us because 3rd parties disagree with what we say. We're a business that is virtually guaranteed to lose share if ad spend is flat. Our future is bright because AR.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

4 months

Everything really has changed. In 2024 you can discuss humanoid robots, a cure for aging, AGI, landing rockets backwards, going to Mars, and virtually anything we're capable of imagining - with a straight face. Not only that, it's safe to assume that most of it will happen within

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@zackkanter Telling his employees a story about how they’re part of a noble cause and saving the planet by selling CRM software is his way of avoiding inflation raises ;)

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

Current portfolio: 1. Semiconductor Basket: 25% 2. $GOOG: 18% 3. $AMZN: 13% 4. $FB: 11% 5. $QQQ: 11% 6. $MSFT: 5% 7. $AAPL: 4% 8. China basket: 3.5% 9. Other: 11% More than 5-10 positions, but still concentrated.

Zay Capital

@cap_zay

2 years

Aswath reminds me of all the people dunking on my diversification. You don't hear much about the 5-10 stock concentrated portfolio folks on here anymore.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

4 months

For argument's sake - let's assume a worst case climate change scenario: sea levels rise 5 feet by 2100. Is that really so hard to handle? People can move. Homes and buildings can be re-built. It would be a catastrophe if it happened in 5 or 10 or maybe even 20 years, but

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

4 months

Kara Swisher: “Elon’s fundamental problem is that he’s a narcissist and doesn’t think anyone matters but him”. Meanwhile Elon out there spending 80-100 hours a week for decades straight grinding, creating literal business and science miracles, saving Ukraine from Russia, landing

Richard Hanania

@RichardHanania

4 months

Bill Maher puts Kara Swisher in her place. Just the gap between what Elon Musk is accomplishing and the degree to which his critics contribute nothing is astonishing. Watch this video.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@DrJimFan @MSFTResearch @GoogleAI My God - I am literally too excited to even be productive today. Wrote this post yesterday about how fast things were moving, and how it wouldn't be long until voice was integrated - which is the next step toward human-equivalent digital assistants:

1 billion new people, but no more mouths to feed. Yet another ChatGPT post.

One way to think about technology is that it is a mechanism for lowering the cost of intelligence. Consider what it took to write a book in the 14th century. First you needed paper. Here’s a descri...

01core.substack.com

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

3 months

I'm seeing a lot of bad takes on Apple so I want to lay out the bull case as I see it. 1. The first piece of the bull case is that the richest 15% of the world uses an iPhone, and spends 1/3 of their waking hours using it. If they also use a Mac then they are likely a high

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@paulg Cheat proof tests are like lipstick on a pig. We should be trying to move beyond tests completely.

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

4 months

Please help me get the attention of @UPS and CEO @Carolbtome . I am aware of three small businesses within 10 miles of me who have been charged thousands of dollars by UPS fraudulently. There are 20,000 cities in the US and each city is on average 50 square miles. If the

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

When your revenue looks like this it's understandable that you haven't spent much time figuring out new ways to monetize. But the pressure is on now in a way that it never has been. $META revenue growth w/ beat/miss dots

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

The enormous volume of terrible takes on $FB, not just by media but by otherwise usually savvy investors- make me very damn bullish

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

6 months

@heimbergecon Explanation of why:

Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

6 months

Women earn: 61.6% of associates degrees 58% of Bachelor’s degrees 61.8% of Masters degrees Yet their participation in STEM degrees is dwarfed by men. One of the interesting takeaways is that we can expect political viewpoints between men and women to continue diverging at

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Optimist_Prime_First_of_his_Name

@01Core_Ben

2 years

@Scobleizer @OpenAI @Tesla @Apple Every year from here on out I think we're going to see technological advancements that will shock people. There has never been a more exciting time to be alive, we are literally living at the knee of the curve!

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