im honestly pretty curious to see how this risk turns out on the Day 3 outlook. ill probably stay up tonight and leave an update about it to see if it uptrends, or downtrends.
#miwx
On the day 4 risk, the SPC has highlighted the ENTIRE lower peninsula in a 15% slight risk. Damaging winds, and hail are likely to be the main threats. I will give more updates so stay tuned.
#miwx
Here is the new HRRR 18z run. it shows 2 rounds. These storms will carry damaging wind potential along with hail, and even minor flooding. Be prepared for more updates.
#miwx
Lets talk about tomorrows threat. SPC has put an enhanced risk in place for very southwest Michigan. Main risk is wind. But its an ALL hazards threat. The wind could exceed over 75 mph+ As there is likely to be a bow echo. Environment will be best in southwest MI.
#miwx
Honestly this kind of shocked me. The NAM3K is showing an intense bow echo going through Michigan on Monday evening. Its also throwing out some insane cape values. No wonder the CSU was going crazy.
#miwx
Just want to start off by saying this is NOT for sure, But the HRRR has been showing south east Michigan getting in on a line of storms tomorrow morning. This will likely be a lightning producer, and could have a small flooding risk. Some strong winds may be possible too.
#miwx
I'm closely monitoring the situation for August 27th. Current models suggest that conditions could support severe weather across the entire Lower Peninsula. I'll provide more updates soon with details on potential threats and specific areas at risk. Stay tuned.
#Miwx
"MCS is possible, with the most likely corridor for this MCS from eastern IA and southern WI across northern IL, potentially reaching southwest Lower MI and northern IN. Damaging gusts would be the primary threat within this MCS."
#miwx
the HRRR shows possibility tonight for another MCS Moving into the state late tonight. Damaging winds would be the main threat, but there's a small chance for a spin-up tornado, along with isolated hail up to an inch.
#miwx
Forecast for today, I think we have a chance after around 4 pm for some thunderstorms. I'm pretty uncertain about this though, but i made this in case.
#miwx
Thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon and evening tomorrow. The main risks are severe/damaging gusts, with a chance of isolated hail. Higher severe probabilities may be warranted if confidence increases in a more organized storm corridor.
#miwx
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Northeastern Cass County and Northern St. Joseph County. 60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail with a possibility of a tornado.
#miwx
On Friday, we may have a system coming in bringing flooding concerns, and possibly even some severe weather, We will have up to 2000 (J kg-1) of cape, which will support possibly some some stronger, and perhaps severe storms. More updates soon so stay tuned.
#miwx
The SPC has issued a Day 3 Marginal Risk for parts of Lower Michigan, with damaging winds as the main hazard. Additionally, there's a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall issued by the WPC, raising flooding concerns. This risk is for August 5th. Stay tuned for updates.
#Miwx
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Delta County in south central Upper Michigan...
Northeastern Menominee County in south central Upper Michigan.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
#miwx
New SPC outlook has introduced a moderate risk, The tornado threat for Michigan has increased to a 10%. If you are in any tornado warning today, make sure you have a plan. This will likely be a long night. A derecho may also be possible today.
#miwx
#derecho
Heres a weather updates: for tommorow, we are in a marginal threat. A couple of strong/marginally
severe storms may also occur across. For the day after that, we are in another marginal. There is some uncertainty for it.
#miwx
Watching Friday closely. We will likely have a round of scattered thunderstorms statewide Friday morning. Some may be on the stronger side. After they move out, our environment will recover, and we may see some thunder storms initiating in SE MI with a hail/wind threat.
#miwx
Severe weather, including the risk of damaging winds and hail, is possible across Michigan on Tuesday as thunderstorms move through the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the timing and extent of storm development, but clusters of storms are expected.
#Miwx
Currently, the HRRR 18z is hinting at potentially some stronger storms tomorrow evening. Hazards would be small hail and some strong winds 40+ mph. Stuff will likely change, just want to throw this out there just in case. Stay tuned for more updates.
#miwx
#severewx
We will likely see an aurora tonight statewide! We also will see the perseids meteor shower! If you go out, i would recommend bringing a hoodie as its a little chilly.
#miwx
#aurora
#meteorshower
@itsallisonelsie
Well not 1 person, but a group.
@MiStormChasers
is a reliable channel that gives you weather updates and severe weather breitling. They even go live for severe weather events. So probably they are my favorite.
Some models are hinting at some possible stronger storms in the South-eastern counties Wednesday afternoon. I will watch this to see if this becomes a bigger concern.
#miwx
Heat Advisory in Effect for August 27
Expect heat index values reaching up to 102°F. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity can increase the risk of heat-related illnesses. Please take precautions to stay cool and hydrated.
#Miwx
#heatadvisory
The newest HRRR run is showing most of the showers Friday morning not being as heavy, and moving out quickly. This will cause the atmosphere to destabilize. This may warrant a slight risk. I will be keeping an eye on this, and giving updates if necessary.
#miwx
We have a very unstable environment that may fuel these storms later on. Damaging winds will be a threat with these as they move east. Expect power outages.
#miwx