Colin King @valuedontlie Twitter profile

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

I wrote this to myself when I started on the buyside 11 years ago... Cheesy but I could stand to benefit from reinstituting some of these practices today!

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

ROIC purists -- what's the proper way to calculate the "invested capital" portion of the formula?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

6 years

so many nuggets of capital-intensity wisdom...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

What are some special sits that we're all looking at / own?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 years

what's the cheapest (ie low multiple) growth stock you know of? and what's earnings growth look like over the next few years?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 months

$VSTO still looks like the best special sit out there right now... $35/sh right now with $16/sh special div + 1 share of Revelyst (outdoor brands like CamelBak) Revelyst with net cash balance sheet and $130-160m EBITDA (<6x)... any cash >$250m to be returned to shareholders

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

8 months

What’s your best catalyst-driven idea that you think will play out in 6-9 months or less?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

Here's what Mauboussin has to say...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

9 months

Some gift ideas for the holidays… Potential quality companies at a discount: $MTZ $DAR $ATMU $SDZ $ATKR $PX $SXP.TO $SYZ.TO $GLXZ $MNRO Value/special sit ideas: $TLNE $VSTO $AAP $HRBR $MDU $SSNT $BW $BTU $CLMT $NICK $SYF $RILY $CMPD $VTRS

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

Favorite screens to run for new ideas? EV/sales <0.2x 5yr total return < S&P Yield >5-6% Balance sheet net debt to net cash Cash flow turning negative

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

7 years

revisiting an old CoBF thread on private businesses... such good advice from this post... my experience has been similar...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

7 months

@thesamparr Not a novel and maybe too finance-y... Red Notice by Bill Browder is super fascinating story about business dealings in Russia and some intense stories... reads more like action/thriller

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

Quick Value - Big Lots $BIG Stock went from $40 to $14 to $70 to $8 over the past 5 years Beaten up retailer with, perhaps, multi-bagger potential...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

8 months

$ATKR This week's Quick Value: Atkore International, a potential building products "compounder" Here are my notes...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

11 months

$KLG Another spin getting whacked out of the gate... down ~40% since spun from Kellogg... I have this one trading right around 5x EBITDA at $11/share. Results have been erratic and margins way below peers...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

Investment Research Process After finding a stock to dig into, I’ll go through most / all of these steps. Sometimes I’ll do a few of them and put the idea back on the shelf for a while only to pull it down again later. Here are some basic steps in the research process for me…

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 months

Next round of the watchlist

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

7 months

Third Ave uses this bucket approach to group their holdings I use something similar and find this a helpful way to group holdings

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 months

Next batch of stocks on the list…

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

What are the best small cap conglomerates out there? Baby $BRK ideas welcomed...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 years

one of the greatest CoBF calls I’ve ever seen... from $0.87 to $155... dude kept the thread alive by himself for 2+ years with no takers... $ENPH

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 years

Ultimate (deep) value investor interview question... Ever own a stock that went bankrupt?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

21 days

Lots of posts on recently... what are some early / undiscovered compounders right now?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

Has Buffett ever paid 20x EBITDA for a business? alternatively... What's the most expensive price paid for any business/equity by by Buffett or Berkshire?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

For new followers All (most) of my research notes are kept in a Notion database which is accessible (free for now since it's pretty haphazard) I write a weekly/monthly newsletter highlighting these stocks Both are linked in my bio

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

Revisiting a classic… Six Month Fix by Gary Sutton — practical guide on turnarounds Will add to this thread as I go…

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

Some of the best small business acquisition advice out there.

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

10 months

Piotroski F Score James Montier has long been a fan of this metric as a screen for declining (low F score) or improving (high) fundamentals. Does anyone regularly use this metric or specifically look for stocks with it?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

Working on another VIC application... maybe this one will get it done...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

It's annoying when you go to see what people are saying about a certain ticker only to find the ticker is also some random crypto garbage...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

Here's his commentary for those debating calculating via asset side or L+E side of balance sheet:

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 years

anyone have any good left for dead ideas? stock prices that have dwindled (not falling knife), no commentary on twitter in months, no Q&A on earnings calls, etc.

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 years

$MBI thesis in a nutshell...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

8 months

$CVEO 0.9x leverage 22% FCF yield Buying back stock Newly initiated dividend (4.5% yield)

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 months

$JACK talking up the newbuild IRR over buybacks with shares at ~8x earnings... hmm...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

11 months

It's been 4 years since I started writing Value Don't Lie and nearly 400 posts...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

This week's Quick Value -- Lee Enterprises $LEE Print-to-digital pivot in newspaper publishing... This was an @hkuppy idea from last fall (not sure if he's still involved)

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 years

$INTC fans... is this a reasonable take?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

I love a quirky spin-off... Oddball situations, crazy spin ratios, dramatically unrelated business, or even a 50/50 split are still some of my favorite places to look. Here were 2 interesting ones from a few years ago...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

6 months

Just to be clear: 1. I’m not the dumbest man alive 2. I’m not paid/affiliated with RILY 3. I’m not a disgrace 4. Referenced tweet was way before any of this Kahn stuff came to light 5. I’ve mostly just been covering the numbers / operating stats at the companies

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 months

Quick Value - Burberry Group $BURBY Luxury retailer down 54% over the past year... what's going on? 🧵

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

7 years

Roumell Q2 letter... worth a read...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 years

what’s everyone using to track notes on stocks? Evernote? OneNote? Word docs and excel files stuffed into folders on your desktop? Others??

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

My favorite investments are the ones that take only 30 minutes of review to realize it's a good one

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 months

@SecretCFO Could it be an insufferable / unmanageable CEO?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

I'd like to reverse merge my private business into a mid-liquidation public microcap... Is this feasible?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

8 months

A "top idea" 12x earnings / 8x EBITDA on FY24 estimates

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

This week's Quick Value: Darling Ingredients $DAR Here are my notes on this pretty unique company...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 months

$RILY Some notes from the 10-K...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

5 years

this is a $5bn company...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

What preferred stocks and baby bonds do we like here? My to-do list includes: $BW $RILY $FOSL $SACH

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 months

This’ll get zero engagement but here’s a link to the $BURBY write up

Quick Value #216 - Burberry Group PLC (BURBY)

Luxury retailer, shares down 43% over 5yr period, trading at 9.8x EBIT

www.valuedontlie.com

Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 months

Quick Value - Burberry Group $BURBY Luxury retailer down 54% over the past year... what's going on? 🧵

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

Continuing the ROIC thread(s)... here's a few approaches... My numerator (and thus ROIC) are all pre-tax figures

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

@disc_long Start a trading journal and begin tracking your decisions/actions... even if brief/imperfect notes on each decision

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

@marketplunger1 $VTRS + $TEVA - Generics makers trading at 3-4x FCF - Investor community little/no expectations - Bad balance sheets improved/improving by miles - Market stable, growth in sight, ROIC improving - Capital allocation turning from debt to buybacks

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

6 years

entrepreneurial profit = spin-offs

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

7 months

@StockJabber @AlderLaneEggs Separating it into 2 arguments -- 1) fundamental; 2) fraud/bad actor 1) fundamentals Not much discussion around the operating businesses (ex cap markets) but most of them seem to be doing well... wealth back to profit, appraisal doing extremely well, brands are fine, consumer

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 years

@jay_21_ ODP FTAI GSK LEN EXC BHC VGR BDX

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

Couple of thoughts on $RILY after reading the short report...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

Quick background on myself after 9 years on Twitter (X). I describe myself as "accountant turned investor turned business owner" - Today I own several operating businesses (personal HoldCo) and write about (and invest in) public equities. Here's my story...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

7 years

no luck w VIC membership so far... maybe next idea will be the one!

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 months

Quick Value - Kennametal $KMT Manufacturer of metal cutting tools (drill bits) used in E&C, heavy machinery, energy, industrial markets 🧵

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 years

Cheapest stocks in the Russell 1000...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

6 years

would love to hear more about how @morganhousel views investing his own money given the quality of his writing over time.. this statement rings of taleb's antifragile...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

I’ll start one just to make sure I don’t miss out… What’s your best idea for 2023?

Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

Excited to sift all the “best ideas for 2023” threads

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

6 months

@stephenolmon Almost as good as…

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

8 months

I don’t think buybacks can be considered a hard catalyst unless a) unexpected b) material % of market cap c) tender at a premium Agree/disagree?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

4 months

$SOLV should just sell their filtration business at 20x EBITDA and delever with it... whole business would re-rate overnight...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

RE: Microcap buybacks 1) Are buybacks your preferred capital allocation choice? 2) What microcaps ($1-5m EBITDA) have successfully used buybacks over a multi-year period of time?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

9 days

Anyone looking at this $DO $NE deal? DO holders get .2316 shares of NE + $5.65/sh cash Implies cap of ~$6.3bn PF with $6.5bn backlog, 1x net leverage, $100m yr 1 synergies

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

@ebitdaddy90 It’s really freaking hard to run and grow a business…

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

What are some stocks that look like "easy" doubles this year? No $WBD allowed!

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

9 months

@borrowed_ideas My business partner and I met after 30 and have been working together for about 6 years now in complete 50/50 form It’s possible; I’d argue that your hobbies and passions truly come out in your 30’s and if you’re pursuing it, then you’ll likely run into some interesting folks!

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 months

$AAN To be acquired at >$10/share... just wrote this one up a few weeks ago... maybe the RTO/value consumer is turning the corner?

Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 months

Quick Value -- The Aaron's Company $AAN Lease-to-own (LTO) retailer hitting new lows 🧵

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

Hear me out on P/S or EV/Sales… It can be useful to grab a starting universe of potentially mispriced companies… Simple rule of thumb — a 10% margin business at 1x sales = 10x multiple (of whatever earnings metric desired: EBIT, FCF, net income, etc) If a business has the

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

10 months

$RILY Posted some thoughts (available at valuedontlie .com)

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 months

@ToffCap Pharma — $VTRS $SDZ Retail — $DLTH Healthcare — $SOLV Energy — $CVEO $VTOL Gaming — $GLXZ Auto — $SUP $PHIN Will look through my list for others

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 month

Quick Value -- Jacobs Solutions $J Splitting into 2 companies: 1) Professional services to E&C (planning, design, architecture, etc.) 2) Spin/merge of Government services business (comp to $LDOS, $BAH, $CACI, etc.) 🧵

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

If I could look at only one thing when evaluating a new stock idea, it'd be the past 3-5 years of cash flow statement... Where did cash come from and where did it go? This reveals quite a few things...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

@anothercohen This sort of thing is similar to systems, process, and project management tools You need a dedicated “champion” in the company. Probably a full time hire. Someone that crosses into all functions/departments to stay on top of it and keep the whole company informed.

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

6 years

all that insider buying at $ETM for a disaster of a Q...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

Looking for a list of all stock/investment related blogs and substacks... Share yours with a brief description or tag someone else

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 months

Quick tip for reviewing 10-K -- You can quickly piece together ~8yrs of data pretty easily by looking at latest (2023) 10-K and going back to 2020 10-K and reviewing the Selected Financial Data 5yr table

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

6 years

how on earth does $ALSN have/maintain near 40% EBITDA margins making truck transmissions?? do any transportation equipment makers even come close to this number?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

5 years

what do you consider leveraging up hugely? currently in my 30s... borrowed 0.5x my net worth to acquire 2 small biz now mostly repaid... recently(ish) borrowed >1.5x net worth to do it again...

Five Aces Capital

@FiveAcesCapital

5 years

Munger used lots of leverage in his early years. Wonder how many of these wealthy investors leveraged up hugely in their 20-30s to accumulate their initial capital.

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

So many substacks and letters with so many words... where are all the numbers?

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

8 years

how a microcap is born: a midcap declines 90%

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

17 days

Good writeup on $TPB by @Dan_Roller

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

The big flaw in sharing these Buffett/Munger comments about concentration is they overlook the frequency that they occur. Sure, there could be “several times” over your career to consider a 50-70% investment. That doesn’t mean you should own just 3-5 stocks at any given time

Compound248 💰

@compound248

2 years

“DIVERSIFICATION IS FOR THE KNOW-NOTHING INVESTOR.” - Charlie Munger Warren Buffett goes on to spit 🔥 at 2008 $BRK - Alpha Hunters, gird your loins: “You will see things where it would be a mistake… not to have HALF YOUR NET WORTH in it.” 1/x 🧵👇

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

5 years

Top positions... $HHC bill chen, $MMAC Kiel, Claris Corp? dan r, Italian cement for Keith Smith, $FTK from m sweeney, $nuv alluvial

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

5 months

Quick Value - Consensus Cloud Solutions $CCSI (full disclosure I bought some shares of this one) 🧵

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

8 months

$VTRS is selling assets at 25% of market cap closing in 1H24 with little impact to FCF I expect they’ll announce a very large buyback once that’s done.

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

Some stocks on my shortlist... $HII $LEE $MITK $BAX $DXT.TO $NICK

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

5 years

librarian knows me on a first name basis...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

6 years

Simple yet powerful business advice... delegate, monitor, measure, inform...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

$GTX Still no formal capital allocation plan... staying flexible - Increased buyback to $250m (from $200m) - Anticipate reaching leverage target (2x) by YE 2024 Leverage picture changed a ton from last Q and wild guesses post preferred transaction... Net debt $1.42bn EBITDA

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

2 years

A stock that I own is down 73% over the past 5 years...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 months

First insider purchases in years... hmm...

Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 months

Quick Value - Denny's Corp $DENN Continuing down the restaurant rabbit hole 🧵

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

1 year

Everything I'm watching is rallying while everything I own is tanking... Lovely...

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Colin King

@valuedontlie

3 years

$VST issuing $1bn in 8% pref stock to kickstart $2bn common share repurchase plan... hmm... Market cap $8.6bn

Vistra Announces $2 Billion Share Repurchase Program

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) (the "Company" or "Vistra") today announced a new $2 billion share repurchase program and the pricing of a private offering (the "Offering") of 1,000,000 shares of its 8%...

investor.vistracorp.com

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