Taylor Selden @tselden Twitter profile

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@MyfeckArchive

Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

Rule #1 for Argentine bonds: Never buy Argentina’s new bond issues. Wait until they’re in default. Milei and Caputo are traveling to New York to secure new funds to rescue the LELIQs. Caputo is famous for having sold a 100-year bond (which was defaulted a few years later) and

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

I’m in AEP ✈️ today and it’s full of homeless sleeping 🛌 everywhere. Why doesn’t Mayor @horaciorlarreta do something? Find some shelters for these people. This is insane.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@elonmusk @stclairashley I think One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (along with most film depictions of psychiatric institutions that have come afterwards) have ingrained a deep sense of mistrust in these facilities for most Americans.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

Why do some countries, such as Argentina 🇦🇷 have a hard time developing and improving the lives of their citizens? The problem is cultural more than economic. You have ⅓ of the country that believes in radical Marxist ideology. Here's a real world example... 🧵(1/4) Thread...

Natalia Salvo

@NataliaBSalvo

1 year

Seis alumnos de una escuela de CABA trabajando gratis en nombre del aprendizaje. El horror nunca se presenta como tal. La comunidad educativa se opuso y Larreta la desoyó. Mano de obra barata para las empresas amigas. Viola los convenios 138 y 152 de la OIT y art 32 LCT.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

Libertarian Pres. candidate in Argentina @JMilei has been shadowbanned on Twitter and no longer appears in search. I have verified this on Twitter iOS. None of the results in this search are the official account. @twitter fix asap! Thank you @aetchebarne for noticing this.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

Meet Michael Hasenstab, the guy who bought Caputo's 18% FIXED RATE 🤦‍♂️peso bonds. When interviewed about his huge blunder, he said: “I’m comfortable going through periods of pain, sweat, and tears, knowing there’s a reward at the end” How did the story end? There was no

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

Who wants to buy unlimited dollars at a price of $360 pesos per dollar AND get free devaluation insurance for 6 months? Last week the Argentina Central Bank started offering offering LEDIVs for banks, YPF, participants in their "Precios Justos" program, and a number of other

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

10 months

Two decades ago for $150,000 pesos you could buy a house 🏠 in Argentina. Today you can buy a sandal. The political class has literally stolen 99.97% of the money supply over the last generation through currency debasement. This is why Milei’s chainsaw is sorely needed. 🪚

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

And I don’t want to hear that “these people don’t want to go to shelters”. That’s not an excuse. That means shelters are: - not safe - not clean - not sufficiently heated Get it together @gcba . 👎

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

No more free money from the Argentine Central Bank. 😭 The Central Bank has officially cancelled the LEDIV program today. I'll bet anyone an asado 🥩 that the list of buyers of LEDIVs are the same people who contributed to Sergio Massa's presidential campaign. This seems like a

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

Buenos Aires is cheaper than Baghdad. If I wasn't already buying Argentine companies I'd be buying Argentine properties.

IMI Daily

@imidaily

9 months

$200k buys you: 6m² in Hong Kong🇭🇰 15m² in Seattle🇺🇸 24m² in Mumbai🇮🇳 33m² in Calgary🇨🇦 49m² in Belgrade🇷🇸 65m² in Mexico City🇲🇽 78m² in Baghdad🇮🇶 86m² in central Buenos Aires🇦🇷 Does BA being cheaper than Baghdad seem normal to you? This historical aberration will not last.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

Carrefour goes out of its way to teach young kids how to work and gives them a leg up in the job market. They'll apply to their first job with experience in a multinational on their CV. The radical left in Argentina calls this "slave labor".🤦‍♂️ 🧵 (4/4)

Natalia Salvo

@NataliaBSalvo

1 year

No es el fin del trabajo es el trabajo esclavo y sin derechos.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@MirasHernan Yo también revisé tu perfil… Página 12 y retweets de Cristina/Máximo. Sos el problema. Jamás voy a “aprender” a pensar como uds.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

🔥 Unpopular opinion: Thanks to Caputo @totocaputo6hb there are no more "risk-free" 💸 investments in Argentina that can beat inflation. If you want to keep up with inflation, you will need to take on risk. Let's look at why all the typical Argentine strategies are going to

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@ramzpaul This is why managers want to eliminate "work" from home. People like this are going to ruin it for everyone else. Try this in a small business, see how long you last.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@JorArguello ¿Y si usan los 39 satélites para buscar la palanca para apagar la impresora en el Banco Central?

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

And to everyone who replied that ✈️ AEP is the responsibility of the national gov't, I'm pretty sure these homeless didn't just fly in from another city. There were homeless in the City of Buenos Aires before arriving at the airport to sleep. @gcba can help them out.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@MatiasASeoane Internship ≠ work. This is about teaching youth about maturity, keeping a schedule, listening to a boss, and accepting responsibility. Only a Marxist would call unpaid youth internships slave labor.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

So these kids will be from lower class families who cannot afford a private school and won't have family connections to get their first job. Many of these kids have no idea what it means to work, keep a schedule, etc, and this program is giving them a chance to learn. 🧵 (3/4)

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

According to Balaji, California is becoming Argentina. If that’s the case, maybe California Democrats will soon be doing ribbon cutting ceremonies on water faucets like the Governor of Chaco. I’m glad more people are realizing that Argentina is the future of Dem policies.

Balaji

@balajis

1 year

For the last 12 years, Blue America has been in total control of California. What is their greatest accomplishment in the field of public infrastructure? 1) Solar powered metal pole 2) Toilet paper ribbon cutting 3) Crack smoking billboard 4) $300M bus lane

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

Thank you @Christianwerle1 for replying to my thread on the homeless in ✈️ AEP. Have you asked the people sleeping in AEP why they prefer the airport to your shelters? Have you personally spent a night in one of your shelters to find out first-hand?

Christian Werle 🇦🇷

@Christianwerle1

1 year

En CABA tenemos estos centros de inclusión, en donde además de pasar la noche, bañarse y comer, cuentan con un equipo que los contiene, acompaña y capacita para que puedan salir adelante. Seguí disfrutando de esta gran ciudad y del mejor país del mundo! ☎️108

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

8 months

UNDERSTANDING POLITICAL RISK IN ARGENTINA: WHAT'S COMING FOR 2024 🇦🇷 For many years I never invested in LatAm because I didn't understand political risk properly. I just assumed it was too risky to invest here and I missed out on a lot of opportunities. Here's what I've

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

📈 2 Minutes On Vista Energy: $VIST 🚀 This a company I bought late. I had been waiting on the sidelines for a good entry point, but none ever appeared. It just keeps going up. 📊 Everyone in Argentina is bullish on this company. Check out the analyst price targets below. As of

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

To everyone attacking me ad hominem because I am from the USA, this only goes to show why this problem exists in Argentina. This situation is not normal in Argentina or anywhere else. Demand that your elected representatives fix the problem.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

. @carrefourarg is signed up to a program to provide internships to public high school students. This will be the first work experience for many of these students at a multinational company. In Argentina (and much of LatAm) the middle class has left public schools. 🧵 (2/4)

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

One of my core holdings is $CEPU (Central Puerto) 🏭. Milei has stated that he wants to deregulate the energy market ⚡. Here's how this could turn out well for them: Argentina 🇦🇷 is weird because the government gives the gas 🛢️ to the electric utilities and then they get paid a

Liliana Franco

@lilianafranco20

9 months

Which companies did you buy @tselden ?

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@sanchocastro @horaciorlarreta Quien gobierna en la ciudad? No lo votaron presidente aún. Es el responsable.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

🇦🇷🔄🏦 Argentines have been living in the Upside Down for so long they have no idea how banking works in the real world. 🌍 Seeing so many Argentines complaining on Argie FinTwit about the end of the #LELIQs is pretty wild. Outside of Argentina, banks have to actually LEND their

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

Here is the best analysis I've read so far on the bull case for Argentina, based on the primary election results: My take on yesterday's election: Peronism took a severe hit (Massa only got 21%, Grabois is hard-left, not a Peronist). 60% of voters are leaning towards the

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@SoyWalterDamian Frente de Todos: >33% of the votes. The problem is that Argentine society (and you, apparently) do not consider them to be the radical left when they clearly oppose any initiative that favors economic development.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@ferage Argentina would be in the G8, a world leader, if it weren’t for the toxic left. In 1913 it was one of the 10 most advanced economies. Then leftist ideology took hold and it all went downhill from there.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

7 months

Watching Americans face Argentine bureaucracy for the first time is like seeing a kitten walk into the lion's den. Adorable, yet so unaware. 😂 Customs? Customs is probably the worst bureaucracy of them all. The rules are designed to make you fail. The only way to succeed is

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@javicaches Nadie dice nada porque en la misma semana también salió el número de inflación de abril: 8,4% mensual. La única manera que Alberto tiene para conseguir una tapa favorable es si gasta el dinero del FMI para traer a Messi a jugar en Argentina.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

@TheXofYordan I agree. The US could use someone like Caputo. Milei is smart to bring him on board.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@sanchocastro @horaciorlarreta Esta gente viene acá porque la ciudad no ofrece refugios acordes. No importa para nada quien administra el aeropuerto.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

There's been some talk that this may have been deactivated today due to everyone on X going nuts over this. I haven't seen any paperwork/docs to that effect. As of this morning it was $5 billion and expanding at an exponential pace.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

OPEN LETTER FROM AN ARGENTINA RESIDENT TO MARK SOBEL ( @sobel_mark ) AND ROBIN BROOKS ( @RobinBrooksIIF ) REGARDING RECENT CRITICISM OF @JMilei DOLLARIZATION PLANS. Dear Mark Sobel and Robin Brooks, As a fellow American and a compatriot with 18 years of residency in Argentina, I

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@NuclearHazelnut @PlantVogtle @SouthernCompany Glad to see it built. Now what's the cost per gigawatt? $10 billion? China 🇨🇳 pays $2 billion per gigawatt. US 🇺🇸 needs to ignore the hippies and nimbys and start mass producing these reactors so we can get the cost down to something more reasonable.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

So I thought I'd check the prices at Don Julio after the devaluation... We now have six figure steaks. 🥩 This has got to be a first. Hey @Geologo_Trader , ready to spend $100,000 on a T-bone?

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

I’m visiting the natural sciences museum in La Plata today with my 3 year old son. This museum is not only architecturally significant, but the exhibitions are world class. Up to int’l standards. Highly recommended for families. Built during Argentina’s golden age, 1884.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@WallStreetSilv He is here on X, but he's been shadowbanned, so you won't find him in searches. @jmilei is his account if you want to follow him.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

This guy @maxpoweeeeer is 100% right. I’ve been here almost 20 years and there were never homeless at the airport. This is a new phenomenon. Don’t accept this as normal. Demand that the politicians fix it.

Max

@maxpoweeeeer

1 year

@tselden People commenting on homeless in the US are missing the point. Homeless people at the airport wasn't a thing just a few years ago. Clearly the government (whichever, local or national) is not doing enough, they should get it together and find a solution.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@victorfyt @horaciorlarreta No es cómodo dormir en el piso de un aeropuerto. Si no quieren ir a los refugios es porque tienen problemas graves que hay que solucionar. ¿Merecen ser robados mientras duermen solo porque no tienen techo? ¿Es tan difícil poner un par de policías para cuidarlos a la noche?

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

1/ How to invest successfully in Argentina: 1. Wait for the Peronists to win. 2. Buy up Argentine stocks. 3. Wait for the Peronist opposition to win. 4. Sell everything. 5. Repeat step 1. Original tweet in Spanish by @barondelmerval .

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

Milei delivered a 40-minute inaugural address, but the message is short and simple: "There is no money left."

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

Argentina 🇦🇷 offers fans of #ValueInvesting many opportunities. Central Puerto $CEPU (an electric ⚡ utility) is one of them. Look at a chart from its IPO to Covid low. 📉 90% drop. Death spiral? No, nothing could be further from the truth. Let's take a look in this thread. 🧵

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

1/ Konstantin Kisin's Oxford speech is an incredibly moving defense of the developing world's right to lift their citizens out of poverty through energy production. #ESG investors are wrong. The endgame of #LatAm energy is ending poverty. $PBR $VIST $PAM $YPF $EC 🧵 continues

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@horaciorlarreta @CFKArgentina Basta de quejarse de CFK. Sabemos lo que hizo y lo que hace. VOS tenés que presentar un plan a la sociedad de lo que harías diferente. @horaciorlarreta : Vamos a salir de esta. Juntos. Nosotros: ¿Cómo? 🤔

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@GastonSola @horaciorlarreta I’m sure the national government would not mind at all if @gcba social workers went into the airport to help these homeless people and offer them a place to sleep at night. @ORSNAoficial is it true that city social workers are prohibited from entering ✈️AEP?

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@aetchebarne Toda la vida habló mal de Juntos por el Cargo. ¿Y ahora decide formar parte? La unica explicacion que cierra es una valija del pelado.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

In 1991, Argentina adopted a fixed exchange regime and the Merval skyrocketed: 1 month: +70% 📈 3 months: +41% 📈 6 months: +80% 📈 1 year: +189% 📈 3 years: +460% 📈 It could happen again after this election cycle. #LongArgentina Original tweet in Spanish by @NachoAbuchdid .

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@unusual_whales This is because they spent all the dollars. They are literally searching blind on the floor of the central bank vault and found some yuan they could spend. It’s not a policy decision, it’s a drunken pawnshop run at 3 AM.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

7 months

It's a guaranteed fail at customs. Your documents could be perfect, but they'll find an issue... its their hidden talent. But when you sprinkle some greenbacks 💸 suddenly, it's like passing a test you didn't even take!

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

20 years ago the war in Iraq 🇮🇶 destroyed Baghdad. Not only have they rebuilt 🏗️, but the Baghdad Metro Project 🚇 is going to cover 80% the city. @horaciorlarreta was mayor of Buenos Aires 🇦🇷 for almost a decade during peacetime 🕊️ and couldn't build a single km of subway 🚫🚇.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@GugaLusto @FrancoVRinaldi No sé cómo te dejan a vos dentro de JxC después de ser el perro faldero de Nestor y Cristina. Te prometo que todos los que votamos en la interna de JxC en la Ciudad recordamos el 125. No vas a ser jefe de gobierno. Prefiero @FrancoVRinaldi mil veces antes que vos.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@GastonSola @horaciorlarreta @gcba @ORSNAoficial These are Argentines and they’re living in the city. They are sleeping in AEP ✈️ because something is wrong with @gcba shelters. You work for the city. Instead of making excuses or snide remarks, try doing your job and figure out what the problem is with your shelters.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

AL30D is still a buy at these prices. Currently has an IRR of 44.5%. In 41 days after the election (with a new government): - If IRR is 40%, it'll be worth +13% - To maintain today's IRR, that's +4% - If IRR falls to 50%, that's a -6% drop. - Worst case IRR of 58%: -18% drop.

Bonistas.com

@bonistas

1 year

Hablemos de #AL30D . Un día después de las generales en 41d (y con posible corrimiento del gobierno post ..) - Con TIR 40% valdría (+13%) - Para mantener la TIR de 44,4% tendría que ir a 21,89 (+4)% - Si cae a TIR 50% valdría 28,8 (-6%) - Con su peor TIR de 58% valdría 25 (-18%)

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@TraductorTeAma Es increíble que después del 125 este tipo sigue dando vueltas en la política. ¿No puede dedicarse a otra cosa?

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

Thank you @lanacionmas and @LANACION for covering the situation at AEP airport ✈️

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

IEB (local broker in Argentina) calculates that in a worst-case scenario (Russia 2000 style default) the #AL30D bond still has a 21.5% upside at current prices. My last time shopping 🛒 was at $24, but perhaps $29 is not such a bad entry either.

Nacho Abuchdid

@NachoAbuchdid

1 year

FYI, la tabla de proyecciones de rendimiento en los distintos escenarios desde nuestro view. #AL30

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

My biggest criticism of Javier Milei is the lack of a competent team. He was routinely outmaneuvered and made rookie mistakes in Congress. He didn't have anyone qualified looking out for him. With his HUGE WIN last Sunday that may be changing. Experienced economists like

Emilio Ocampo 🇦🇷🇺🇦

@ocampo_emilio

1 year

Me llamó @JMilei y me pidió que lo asesorara en los temas relacionados con la dolarización. Le respondí afirmativamente. Me sumo al equipo. VLLC!

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@RodrigoFerCer @JorArguello Perdón si te molestó mi comentario. A mí me molesta que los dirigentes del mismo país que puede enviar 39 satélites al espacio, generar energía nuclear, y lograr unos cuantos éxitos más, no se ocupen de cosas básicas, como evitar la impresión excesiva de billetes.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@TheRussianVolga @RAMIROMARRA Creo que algun focus group le dijo que nadie mayor a 40 lo votaba con pelo blanco y remera tipo mochilero. Está haciendo un esfuerzo. 👏

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@iharadutra Teaching an adult with no work experience how to work is a very large cost to any company. Using up managerial time to teach youngsters how to work, correcting the inevitable mistakes they are going to make, etc, is very clearly just about charity and doing a social good for

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@elonmusk @stillgray At least 20% of the world's population will match that description. How many should be let in? Where is the line drawn?

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

7 months

The worst part of living in Argentina is the lack of quality consumer goods. 50% import tariffs do that. The day @JMilei lowers tariffs to something reasonable, Argentines are going to discover just how much local empresaurios 🦖 have been fu💥king them over for so many years.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

3 months

Video highlights from the Battle of the Ley Bases. 👮

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

7 months

Parents shouldn't love a politician more than their own children. This is child abuse. Let kids be kids.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@EdKrassen @GCapital_LLC MAGA is about the time America was heroic on the world stage. We won World War II, put a man on the moon, led the fight against communism, witnessed the greatest GDP growth in our nation’s history. There are so many things to be proud of in our past.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@MatiasASeoane It’s an internship not a job. After learning how to work in this internship they might be able to get a real job and get paid. The left is upset because they want a new generation on the dole. Kudos to @carrefourarg for helping these kids learn about work. Ignore the haters!

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@westerosies Not sure what was worse... this or the Lost season finale. I liked GoT more, so I think it let me down more. But the Lost finale was probably objectively worse.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

🛢️📉 Argentina's oil deal sets #Medanito crude at $56/barrel, down from $60-61 since July, while Brent price surged from $75.11 to $84.43 in the same period. The widening gap 📊 will impact revenue for $YPF & $VIST. Freezing fuel prices until Oct 31 🗓️ is another election

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

There is a fully assembled diplodocus dinosaur 🦕 that takes up an entire exhibition hall. As good as anything I’ve seen in a Smithsonian Museum or anywhere else. Many people don’t know this, but Argentina is actually a hotspot for dinosaur 🦖 fossils. 🦴

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@BraianSheila @MatiasASeoane Americans understand what slave labor actually is. It's the most shameful part of our country's history and it existed until 1865. Attacking @carrefourarg for offering internships and calling it slave labor shows why the Argentine left is a total clown show.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@RobinBrooksIIF Argentina's exports are going to explode upward if capital controls are finally ended with the next government. Also, Vaca Muerta is just now coming online and Argentina will be a net exporter of energy within a few years.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@martinjohnsonio Hack for getting into the best social circles in LatAm: Send your kid to the absolute best school you can afford. Not only will you meet the most important business leaders in the country, but also actors, politicians, etc. As a fellow parent they will welcome you in socially.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@JohnGalt_is_www En su aval de promocionar Massa y tirar barro a @JMilei A24 está dispuesto a decir cualquiera cosa. No resiste ningún análisis lo que dice este tipo pero está ahí opinando como un “experto”. Cualquier estudiante universitario de finanzas se da cuenta que es un burro. 🫏

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@nayibbukele ☝️ Someone is about to get a whole lot of foreign direct investment.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@LogMutante During the whole thread a ton of Argentines like this guy☝️want to say I’m wrong and I have no idea what a Marxist is, blah blah. And he is literally a self-declared Marxist / Stalinist. 🤦‍♂️ Notice how all the people triggered by my posts are marxists? All part of the problem.

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

1 year

@RAMIROMARRA Hace años es así y el pelado no hace nada. @horaciorlarreta

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Taylor Selden

@tselden

9 months

Starting today (Dec 1), you can now go short/long in Argentine peso futures using the blue chip swap rate (which usually follows the blue dollar rate) on UFEX Uruguay. Only 45 contracts were traded today, but hey, it's the first day. This could actually be super useful if there

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