Thomas Dvorak @thomdvorak Twitter profile

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Thomas Dvorak

3 years

I got this candle at the vigil for Nazanin a few months ago on the last evening of Richard Ratcliffe’s three week hunger strike. I kept it, thinking I would light it to celebrate Nazanin coming home. The prospect of that felt very distant in November. But today, #NazaninIsFree

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@sajidjavid @lewis_goodall They acted on their instincts, rightfully and justifiably. Any reasonable citizens would have done the same. Time to move on.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@ndxmbxle @CursedFootball He was attempting to score in a junior league

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@Peter_Shilton Headed the ball one too many times didn’t you Peter?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

Final estimate of Czech GDP for Q3 is out. It's not a nice read. Headline was revised down to -0.5% q/q. This means GDP is now 1.5% below the pre-pandemic level and Czech Republic remains the only EU economy yet to recover to its pre-pandemic size. The sick man of Europe. 1/9

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@johnredwood @mikegove12 John is onto something here. Could you please task Matt Hancock to see whether it’s possible to staff hospitals with fish?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@tomhfh Mate it's that long ago when you were having a go at a constitutional lawyer about constitutional law so you might want to tone down the credentialism a bit with your BA in politics

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@jayforeman Time to get cracking on that map of France for Jay Jr then

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

I’m pitching this on my front yard @CountBinface

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@mikegove12 Time to form a defesinve pentagram around the Prittster

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

Robinson has completely lost the plot. Surely good journalism *isn’t* giving platform to a charlatan whose predictions were proven to be false over and over again and not even challenge her? This is incredibly dangerous in the pandemic and literally costs lives.

Nick Robinson

@bbcnickrobinson

4 years

@carolecadwalla @BBCr4today @SunetraGupta Bad journalism is only talking to people you agree with and asking them questions you think you already know the answer to

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@DouglasCarswell I love how you’re literally wrong about every single thing in that tweet 😂

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

Today is day 16 of Richard Ratcliffe’s hunger strike. He now risks sustaining irreversible damage to his body. @BorisJohnson @trussliz you still have a chance to make amends for your inaction - step up your efforts and help bring Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe back home. #FreeNazanin

Free Nazanin

@FreeNazanin

3 years

Day 16 #FreeNazanin

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

Another great explainer video by @davidallengreen - although to be brutally honest, I'd much rather he didn't have all this material to work with.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

5 years

A brilliant, easy-to-read account from @Undercoverhist of how heterogeneity became a force to be reckoned with in macroeconomics and that they have been analysed and developed for a lot longer than many assume, although they have only recently started

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@MegaSting1981 @NoContextBrits Well found!

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@JimmySecUK Hard agree. And saying the invasion is Ukraine’s fault for trying to join the NATO and provoking Russia is textbook victim blaming. “Ukraine shouldn’t have dressed provocatively”

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@NateSilver538 The issue is not vaccinating teachers. It's the children mixing, getting (asymptomatically) infected and then taking it back home, driving up the spread.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@secrettory12 You should be ashamed spending your free school meal vouchers like that

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@johnredwood Yes, because that’s what the UK chose - to have the EU trade deals approved by the government. Other member states instead opted for the approval from parliaments (e.g. Belgium & CETA) You’re either deliberately misleading or you’re really clueless - neither is a good look.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

But the breakdown is possibly even gloomier. Private consumption contracted *again* - 6th quarter out of the last 7 - and remains roughly at 2016 levels, 9% below the pre-pandemic value. The destocking cycle also continued as weakness in industry ramps up. 2/9

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

This is absolutely disgraceful. But sure, move ahead with proof of ID to vote.

Steve Peers

@StevePeers

3 years

This is the nightmare that @the3million always warned about: the lack of physical proof of their status leaves EU citizens with [pre-]settled status vulnerable to incompetent or malicious officials.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

Ever considered how lucky you are? Of all the historical periods, you were born in the same one as @mikegove12 Count your blessings every day.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@finnyofthenorth @GoodwinMJ Right. Except that never happened.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@MatheusFacure

Edmund Helmer

@theotheredmund

4 years

When you ask an economist to model something.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@BBradley_Mans Hi Ben, I guess it’s time to simply apologise without comment? Probably the decent thing to do.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@henrymance @CountBinface please send your minions to punish this outrageous price setting behaviour. They can frankly get in the bin.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

What's worse, the other components - fixed investment, net trade and government consumption - some of which helped to partially offset the weak growth, are all about to fade in the coming quarter. 3/9

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

I think these two charts tell a whole lot about the current inflation story in the eurozone. One of the key lessons - looking at aggregates obscures important dynamics in most cases.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@JoMicheII I’m starting to think the chancellor must have been a terrible investment banker with this sort of understanding of interest rates.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@OliverDowden @RishiSunak @ace_national World leading the same way the test and trace app is world beating?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

1 year

Is the impact of @ecb policy tightening well targeted across sectors? Perhaps not - we estimate that the brunt of monetary tightening is at best partially concentrated in sectors driving underlying inflation. This could require more hikes to bring inflation down. Short 🧵 1/7

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@thecarolemalone This you?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

And as for government consumption, one of the few positive contributors to growth in recent years - well, there's a fiscal consolidation going on, with further cuts in store for 2024. 5/9

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

Fixed investment is propped up by the last-minute absorption of EU funds from the 2014-20 ESIF which expires at the end of 2024, and still fell 0.3% q/q. Exports outlook is dim, particularly for intermediate/capital goods, with high rates & weak demand in the eurozone. 4/9

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@rolandmcs So...the people are the enemies of the people?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@PickardJE Is that net taking into account losing the previous trade deal we had an EU member state?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

5 years

I love this podcast on HANK models @dan_hinge made with @GregWKaplan - it has a nice, easy to understand and succinct summary of the het agent macro & wealthy hand-to-mouth concepts and more broadly, how the transmission channels of monetary policy...1/n

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

11 months

Ahead of tomorrow's Q3 GDP release - likely to underwhelm again - let's take a look at the actual sick man of Europe. No, not Germany. Czech Republic (okay, perhaps Germany as well). Read my latest research briefing at: Short thread 1/13

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

5 years

@RobbieGibb Robbie, this fails point 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 11, 23, 15738, 5^2, 4x+3, i, 4 again, 5/6, 9 and 7! of the bias checklist. Please delete this tweet.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

By the way, the Q3 downward revision now means that (assuming no growth in Q4), the economy needs to grow ~0.9% q/q *every quarter* in 2024 to get to MinFin November projection of 1.9% growth in 2024 overall. That would be in line with the strong 2014-19 avg quarterly growth. 6/9

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

High time we move on to Thermodynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models (or TSGEs for short). The lack of accounting for the laws of thermodynamics in economics is frankly shocking. Subscribe to my substack and help me build this new economics!

Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Out of all the bullshit critiques of our March import stop paper, this is my favorite to date: Did you know that our paper is ... wait for it... inconsistent with thermodynamics?!? But then so is all of "neoclassical economics". Damn!

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@effinalavina @thehill We predominantly have minister stupidity

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@johnpilger

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

Surely the Q3 data strengthen the argument for rate cuts - in addition to weak growth structure, the labour market data are also starting to look increasingly worrying with employment & participation down (partly due to early retirement). 9/9

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

The revision also means that my nowcasting model got the last-minute (day before flash release) nowcast spot on at -0.7% y/y, though that's the definition of schadenfreude. The same model - going off on v limited data atm - is pointing to 0.4% y/y (0.2% q/q) Q4 contraction. 7/9

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

With the government seemingly set on continuing the consolidation, what does this mean for the other macro policy institution, the CNB? There's still the final policy meeting of 2023 in three weeks' time - though any action there will have little impact in next ~2 quarters. 8/9

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

1 year

@jayforeman Isn’t that one of yours? Third verse similar to the first and second verse?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@NoContextBrits A fine lunch

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@DavidGHFrost The freight volumes between the UK and the EU are back to their normal level the same way your tie is back to normal length

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

We should be very VERY thankful for the vaccines.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@MartinBurrowAI @gussthelawyer @rosielanners @FryRsquared Who built the pyramids you ask? Not slaves. Pick up a book mate, it will do you well.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@SteveBakerHW So why did you vote against removing it in the past?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

An interesting feature of the sharp decline in consumer spending in Czech Republic is how uniform it has been across the different type of categories. Headline consumption fell about 9% from the pre-Covid peak by Q3. This is largely echoed across the various goods & services. 1/4

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@PetrHonzejk Skutecne mnozstvi nakazenych v dubnu bylo mnohem vyssi nez kolik ukazovaly testy, a to vsude na svete - proste a jednoduse se netestovalo dost. Zatimco ted je pocet identifikovanych pripadu mnohem blizsi skutecne prevalenci.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@bcafc4 @JuliaHB1 @metpoliceuk @JamesCleverly He didn’t set fire to it, he just held a lighter near the flag. This is basic stuff.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the EU is doing *a lot better* on vaccinations. The current pace still exactly tracks our boosted-supply upside, which would see the EU's goal of 70% of adult population vaccinated before the end of June. short thread 1/3

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

Two charts that really speak for themselves.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

1 year

@tomhfh @Femi_Sorry Well it’s not rocket science but it’s not economics either

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

Worth adding here that the Czech Statistical Office has recently made some adjustments to the LFS data (reweighting etc) Hard to say with messy data like this, but I say there's a mixture of revisions, early retirement + cyclical fall in employment.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

Covid-19 IFR is *NOT* 0.13% (THREAD) There's a lot of confusion and some downright appalling falsehoods in the heated debate about Covid-19. One particular point around which the "let the virus rip" brigade (also known as the morons of Great Barrington) have assembled is the 1/

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

8 years

@bamasevere one shooting in a 80 million country compared to about 150 in the US just this year? Yeah, I'd say the law works just fine.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@kkasimiira That moment when she’s walking by the Thames near Lambeth palace (Houses of Parliament in the background) heading *south* to get to her train to Shere/Godalming which runs from Waterloo irks me so much

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@CrazyItalianPol Looks like Giorgia picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines!

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

10 months

While some ECB figures keep agonizing about the "last mile", eurozone inflation seems to have done a Roger Bannister in November. Fine, that's an exaggeration. But the latest data is also a vindication of our long-standing call on inflation and the ECB's policy in 2024. 1/7

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

1 year

Yet another decline in eurozone retail sales in July, a clear indication that eurozone private consumption is not doing well and economic momentum in Q3 is visibly losing steam. Also another negative piece of the ECB puzzle before the September rate decision. 1/5

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@hugorifkind Cool, let's compare the mass shootings count as well

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@secrettory12 Lock in measures? I hear Gullis is coming round with a few crates of WKDs

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

9 months

What's the deal with food prices in Czech Republic? For a few days now, consumers have been going grocery shopping at (possibly) new prices. January repricing has repeatedly made headlines. First in December, when retailers announced that they will be raising prices in 2024. 1/

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@PickardJE In other words, are Stilton exports to Japan, a country famous for its consumption of blue cheese from the British isles worth 0.07% of GDP?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@twlldun As Jesus said, let him whose wife is not legally domiciled for tax in one country, while he acts as a chancellor in another country, while holding a work permit in a third country, and getting paid from a trust fund in a fourth country cast the first stone

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

1 year

Worried about persistent core inflation? Eurozone firms are not. Firms' selling price expectations over the next three months (matched to core goods and services) - a good predictor of core inflation - show there's further sustained disinflation in store in the coming months.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@TWenseleers @adamjkucharski I got a *much* worse response from ChatGPT (check the equation)

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@BenKentish I don’t think this is right Ben. What you call a “major spike” is a manifestation of the fact that it’s too late given the nature of the exponential growth and the amount of “inertia” in the spread of covid (also given imperfect surveillance when standard testing picks up only

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@IsabelOakeshott Especially as we should declare the pandemic over right Isabel?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@DuncanWeldon I have tweeted this chart one too many times now but it is true globally that the elasticity of GDP to lockdown stringency has fallen over time, which to me suggests that economies have adapted quite a lot to operating with restrictions in place.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

Some people have noted that total global flights (tracked on @flightradar24 ) have recovered to pre-pandemic levels for the first time since the pandemic began, boding well for a recovery in global travel & tourism. This is true BUT (short thread) 1/5

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

Why lifting lockdown quickly is an absolutely moronic and counterproductive policy. (THREAD) I'm not the first to post this but given the amount of senseless & foolish columns in The Telegraph, it needs to be repeated many times over. Lifting lockdowns quickly is idiotic. 1/

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@whippletom Found your mum’s address

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@mrjamesob @piersmorgan @colinrtalbot @GMB @MarkFrancois12 Britain needs its finest patriot

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

Is the eurozone in a recession? Easy question that's surprisingly difficult to answer & also the topic of my latest @OxfordEconomics research note. Long story short: we think technical recession will be avoided - but the distinction is ultimately pointless. 1/8

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@mikegove12 I hear we'll actually have to form a pentagram around her this time

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@RosieisaHolt So that’s not Lozza Fox then

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@JuliaHB1 Hi Julia have you decided the pandemic is over yet? Cause that would be, you know, really useful for all of us.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@NoContextBrits

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@kentpoliceroads @PoliceChiefs He was just testing his eyesight officer

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@jayrayner1 @michaelgove @BorisJohnson There’s been a change of plan - a big part of that will now be going to compensate the victims of bullying by various cabinet members instead. Put that on the side of a bus.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

1 year

Eurozone unemployment rate down to a new low at 6.5% in April. The labour market's performance is nothing short of impressive - recouping all the damage after the pandemic and going from strength to strength since. Both employment and participation at historical highs. 1/5

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@RobejsekPetr Co tech dvacet procent hlasu ve volbach vy dubiozni postavo? Konec Merkelove jste taky predvidal uz asi patnactkrat, takze bych vas analyze moc pozornosti neprikadal.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

11 months

Czech economy is vulnerable to adverse supply shocks due to its own currency (still seen as EM by markets), due to being a net energy importer, due to its large manufacturing sector and its large energy inefficiency. All of this made the supply shocks particularly painful. 5/

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

1 year

Thanks to @jonsindreu for a very generous coverage of my recent research on the sectoral impacts of monetary policy in the eurozone. He summarises the main message very well - the ECB's tightening is not hitting the right sectors to cool inflation. 1/5

Why Interest Rates Don’t Cool Inflation Enough: They Hit the Wrong Places

Many prices less affected by monetary policy matter more for cooling inflation, giving central banks reasons to be overly hawkish.

www.wsj.com

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

Always read the small print kids

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

2 years

@nee_massey Normally I would recommend listening to Belle & Sebastian music but I'm not sure that would help in this case! I find that taking things step by step, developing and trying to stick to an organised schedule/routine and keeping busy helps (particularly spending time outdoors!)

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@JuliaHB1 Brilliant take Julia. Could we get a steer on this as well?

Boris Johnson

@BorisJohnson

3 years

I am appalled by the horrific events in Ukraine and I have spoken to President Zelenskyy to discuss next steps. President Putin has chosen a path of bloodshed and destruction by launching this unprovoked attack on Ukraine. The UK and our allies will respond decisively.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@TheDesertFoxhat @sajidjavid @lewis_goodall Look, I understand why people are angry but they’ve acted perfectly within the rules - they stayed alert - and it is now time to move on.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@DehennaDavison Well of course. Keir Starmer is not making a statement as Leader it the Labour Party. He is addressing the nation as the leader of the opposition. No questions for the BBC to answer.

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@jdportes @JuliaHB1 That’s not true she didn’t age well at all

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

4 years

@HonzaPalicka Hele a fakt tomu veris nebo to jenom musis rikat nahlas aby te kamaradi brali?

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Thomas Dvorak

@thomdvorak

3 years

@TomChivers I'm really enjoying the plethora of Very Clever Quantitative People™ completely failing to understand the distribution of quantitative skills in population. Combined with a pinch of condescension it really makes for an amusing read. It's an excellent article @TomChivers

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