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Jeff Sackmann

@tennisabstract

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I write about tennis past and present, often from the depths of a spreadsheet, at

i nabolaget til Grunnlovsbygda
Joined September 2009
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@tennisabstract
Jeff Sackmann
1 month
*whispers* hingis was 16
@TennisTV
Tennis TV
1 month
Youngest players to reach Grand Slam finals on ALL THREE surfaces: *Carlos Alcaraz* - 21 years 1 month Andre Agassi - 22 years 1 month Bjorn Borg - 22 years 2 months Rafael Nadal - 22 years 6 months Jim Courier - 22 years 10 months Top of an elite group 👏 #RolandGarros
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Jeff Sackmann
2 years
On this day in 2009: Peng Shuai beat Sesil Karatantcheva, 6-4, 6-0 in the second round at the Australian Open to earn a third-round meeting with Serena Williams. The AO doesn't want you to talk about it or wear it on your shirt, but we must not forget about her. #FreePengShuai
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
BREAKING: Professional tennis is not easy.
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Jeff Sackmann
2 years
On this day in 2011: Peng Shuai defeated both Olga Govortsova and Sara Errani to reach the semi-finals of a rain-delayed Hobart International. Her government wants you to forget about her. I know we're better than that. #FreePengShuai
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
We are all Alcaraz fans now
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
Iga Swiatek lost ten points today. Total. That matches the most dominant tour-level performance--any tournament, any round--since 2010. (WTA match stats are spotty before then.)
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
Djokovic vs Tsitsipas official time: 4h11 Djokovic vs Nadal official time: 4h11 If that's not weird enough for you, how about the Australian Open final rounds: Djokovic vs Medvedev 1h53 Djokovic vs Karatsev 1h53
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Jeff Sackmann
2 months
Title choice here is... interesting
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Jeff Sackmann
4 months
Today I wrote about Carlos Alcaraz and the drop shot. Yes, it's awfully good, and no, he probably doesn't hit it too often. Here's a dataviz from the piece:
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
On this day in 1973, Billie Jean King got 60 of her fellow players in one room, at the Gloucester Hotel in London. Betty Stöve manned the door in case anyone thought about leaving early. By the end of the night, BJK had convinced her peers to form the Women's Tennis Association.
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
Iga Swiatek lost only 11 games in the second week of the French Open. That ties the Open era record: no one has ever lost fewer in the last four rounds of a major. (* indicates a helpful RET or W/O)
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
Here's a complete list of women in the WTA era (since 1973) who won a tour-level match after their 43rd birthday: Dodo Cheney (1973) Renee Richards (1977-81) Judy Dalton (1981) Martina Navratilova (2002-04) Kimiko Date Krumm (2013-15) VENUS WILLIAMS (2023)
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
Passive voice: Peng Shuai's freedoms are being restricted, and her safety is threatened. Active voice: The Chinese government is restricting Peng Shuai's freedoms and threatening her safety. Grammar matters.
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
Iga Swiatek is just the 9th woman in the Open era to record three (or more) bagels in the second week of a major. Only Serena Williams had done so since 1989.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
On this day in 2013: Peng Shuai needed 2:35 to get past Hsieh Su-wei, 6-2 6-7(4) 7-6(4), in Hobart R1. Later that year, Peng and Hsieh would team up to win Wimbledon. It's time for the Chinese government to restore Peng's freedoms of speech and movement. #FreePengShuai
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Jeff Sackmann
7 months
This is quite a section of the ranking list...
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
The very first match of the WTA season tomorrow (not counting qualies) - Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Sara Sorribes Tormo. The good news is, no matter what time zone you live in, they'll still be playing when you wake up.
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
Second year in a row that Jannik Sinner goes out of Roland Garros despite winning more than half of total points. Last year he won 198 to Altmaier's 193; this year 147 to Alcaraz's 145. The only player who has ever out-pointed Sinner in a completed match at RG? Rafael Nadal.
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Jeff Sackmann
2 years
I'm very excited to be announcing my big project for the remainder of 2022: The Tennis 128. I'll be counting down the 128 best players of the last 100 years--my essay on the first player ( #128 ) is coming out on Thursday. Introducing The Tennis 128:
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Jeff Sackmann
8 months
Just noticed that with his run to the final in Turin, Jannik Sinner overtook Alcaraz for second place in the Elo rankings:
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Jeff Sackmann
5 months
Ladies and gentlemen, your new Elo number one, Jannik Sinner!
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
Katie Boulter has reached the Nott'ham final by beating WTA #'s 420, 157, 143, and 195. She'll face #131 Burrage tomorrow. If she wins, she'll be the first woman since 2019 (Anisimova in Bogota), and only the 2nd since 2002, to take a WTA title w/o defeating a top-130 player.
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Jeff Sackmann
2 months
Stats you can use: The match between Botic van de Zandschulp and Nicolas Moreno de Alboran is the first-ever ATP tour-level meeting between two players with at least three spaces in their full names.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 months
There are 28 women on the current WTA ranking list with a career high in the top five. That seems like a lot.
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
Carlos Alcaraz is now 10-1 in five-set matches at majors. That makes him only the fifth player in the Open era to win 10 of his first 11 slam five-setters, and the first since Pete Sampras did it 30 years ago.
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Jeff Sackmann
4 months
Did you know that Iga Swiatek not only leads the WTA tour in break percentage, but she also tops the list *hold* percentage list? Today I wrote about how she manages to do that, and how her circuit-best serve numbers might get even better:
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
On this day in 2011: Peng Shuai upset 3rd seed Svetlana Kuznetsova to advance to the final eight in Auckland. 11 years later, her government is preventing her from speaking freely, let alone playing tennis internationally. #FreePengShuai
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Jeff Sackmann
2 years
On this day in 2007: Peng Shuai beat Andreja Klepac, 6-3, 4-6, 6-1, to advance to the second round of the Australian Open. CCP: We're still wondering, #WhereIsPengShuai ? How powerful are you, really, if you're so worried about what one tennis player has to say? #FreePengShuai
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Jeff Sackmann
4 years
I'm often pessimistic about the state of tennis analytics, but it's always reassuring to see that important work is being done.
@pavyg
Pavvy G
4 years
So with Brenda Patea confirming she is 20 weeks pregnant and Sascha is the Father.. it takes us back to this night in Belgrade. This was the likely time the baby would have been conceived. So Adria if it's a girl and Adrian if it's a boy? 🤷‍♂️
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
Last one for tonight... In the last 30+ years (and probably ever, though we don't have the data), no man has won a major title after spending more than 12:16 on their first four matches. Djokovic is up to 13:48. Most time spent on court before the QFs, slam winners since 1991:
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
Tomorrow at the Bordeaux Challenger, Andy Murray will face Stan Wawrinka. It will be just the second time in CH history that two grand slam winners meet, after the 1981 San Remo CH, when Ilie Năstase beat Jan Kodeš.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
BREAKING NEWS: Lots of great players will participate in the Australian Open. Others will withdraw. People will say stupid things. Some of the really great players will win a bunch of matches. We'll all watch them. (This is a developing story--please stay tuned for updates.)
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
After today's marathon match, Djokovic has spent almost 14 hours on court in the first four rounds in Paris. That's *way* more than he ever has before at a major:
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Jeff Sackmann
4 years
Just watched Giustino-Moutet. Every point, every shot. I will probably regret saying anything, but if your take after that match is that slams should abandon best-of-five, you either (a) didn't watch the match, or (b) don't like tennis very much.
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Jeff Sackmann
11 months
Stats you can use: Since Wimbledon, all six ATP finals have featured a player whose first name begins with 'A' Alex Michelsen (and Adrian Mannarino, Newport) Andrey Rublev (Bastad) Albert Ramos (Gstaad) Alexander Zverev (Hamburg) Alexei Popyrin (Umag) Aleksandar Vukic (Atlanta)
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
More new stuff! Here's a comprehensive WTA bakery report, with 2024, last-52, and career stats for 6-0 and 6-1 sets won and lost:
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Jeff Sackmann
4 months
Today I wrote about Stefanos Tsitsipas and his backhand return. It's not a happy story.
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
Iga's match today is a huge improvement on anything in recent French Open history -- in the last 15 years, no woman had won a match with fewer than 16 points lost:
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
On this day in 2014: Peng Shuai won her quarter-final match in Shenzhen, defeating Jana Cepelova 6-3 6-2, in 64 minutes. #freepengshuai
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
With her fifth major title today, Iga Swiatek became just the tenth woman ever--not Open era, EVER--to win 5+ majors at such a young age. Here's the list, with the number of slams they won by age 23 (and 9 days), along with their age when they won their fifth (* = amateur era)
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Jeff Sackmann
24 days
Since 1968, there have been over 550 matches between previous US Open women's champions. But... Naomi Osaka vs Bianca Andreescu is just the sixth time that two USO champs meet as *unseeded* players, and it had never happened before 2020:
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Jeff Sackmann
7 months
I updated the Tennis 128 ranking through the end of the 2023 season, and now, thanks to Iga Swiatek, it's the Tennis 129!
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Jeff Sackmann
10 months
You saw, and perhaps have read, that Coco Gauff's defense won her the final on Saturday. I quantified it:
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
New page at Tennis Abstract -- today's birthdays, including retired players. At least in theory, it will update every day...
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
62nd-ranked Aslan Karatsev is almost--but not quite--the highest-ranked man to play qualifying in recent years:
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
Zverev is right about one thing -- he serves as a constant reminder of systems that are disasters.
@Tennis_Now
TennisNow
3 years
"I am the biggest Roger Federer fan, but he has not played for a year and is ranked higher than me. I played a Grand Slam final, a Masters 1000 final. The system is just a disaster." --Alexander Zverev 🤯
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
Rafael Nadal has won 12 of his 13 Roland Garros titles in 3h40 or less.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
I started digging into the quality of opponents Novak Djokovic has faced in his slam career, and things got a little out of hand. Today's dataviz: Every Djokovic slam match plotted by tournament and opponent ranking:
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
With today's 6-2 6-1 victory, Iga Swiatek joins a very elite group of women with 4+ bakery products in the second week of a major. Here's the full list for the last 30 years:
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Jeff Sackmann
2 years
On this day 5 years ago: Peng Shuai won her first round match at the Australian Open against 23rd seed Daria Kasatkina, 6-0, 7-6(5). No one deserves to be treated the way Peng has. No country that will disappear a prominent athlete should be hosting the Olympics. #FreePengShuai
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
Bill Tilden, born in 1893 and playing top-level tennis before World War I, faced off in 1951 against Pancho Gonzales... who won the 1971 Los Angeles final against Jimmy Connors... who lost in R1 of Vienna in 1992 to Fabrice Santoro... who faced all four of the Big Four.
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
The most famous French Open beatdown is the 1988 final, when Steffi Graf double-bageled Natalia Zvereva in just 34 minutes (counting a rain delay!). Even Zvereva won 13 points.
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Jeff Sackmann
2 months
We can't really compare Elo scores across eras, but I'm going to do it anyway. With the Rome title, Iga Swiatek reached a new career high Elo of 2270, climbing to 30th best in the last 100-plus years, leapfrogging Wozniacki, Louise Brough, Evonne Goolagong, and more.
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
Elo-based draw forecast is up for the Australian Open women's draw ... title chances: 34.8% Iga 19.4% Coco 11.9% Sabalenka 8.1% Rybakina 8.0% Pegula 2.8% Qinwen 2.2% Jabeur 1.6% Sakkari 1.4% Vondrousova 1.3% Krejcikova 1.2% Samsonova 0.8% Ostapenko
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
Maybe this made the rounds last week, but I don't want you to miss Putintseva's celebration after holding serve for a 2-0, third set lead against Qinwen Zheng in the second round:
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Jeff Sackmann
2 years
The Tennis 128 continues today with #93 ... Simona Halep! For years it seemed she might never win a major, but she ultimately picked up a Roland Garros title, and then shocked the world with one of the greatest ever performances in a Wimbledon final.
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Jeff Sackmann
2 years
<gulp>
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
Last thing for today, by request -- an estimate of how lucky the top 16 seeds were in the draw. 'Pre-draw' shows their title chances in a neutral draw -- that is, the average of all possible draws. If 'Ratio' is above 1, the player was lucky, below 1, unlucky:
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
And... draw luck for the men, comparing their actual title chances to what we would have predicted before the draw was made. A ratio below 1 means he was unlucky, a ratio above 1 means he was lucky, and a ratio of 1.5 means I'm sure as hell not watching his Break Point episode
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Jeff Sackmann
2 months
Fun fact: Madison Keys has a higher career winning percentage on clay than on hard courts.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
According to my forecast, if Djokovic doesn't play, Kyrgios's chance of winning the tournament increase from 0.0% to 0.0%.
@Chaseeism
Nikhil Deshpande
3 years
Nick Kyrgios getting ready to personally deport Novak Djokovic out of Australia 👊 #AusOpen
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
New front page at TA
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
Wait, Leo Borg is Bjorn's son?! Do people know about this? Why doesn't anyone mention it?
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
So, who else is ready for the WTA to replace Wuhan/Beijing/Zhuhai/Shenzhen with a month-long Mexican swing?
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
You've heard that the surfaces are converging, and we finally have the data to prove it (more or less). The rally length gap between hard and clay courts has almost disappeared, and the gap between hard and grass has shrunk as well.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
Rafa won only 25% of total return points against Tsitsipas. In over 300 career grand slam matches, only one other opponent has held him below 25%. 18.8% - 2019 AO F vs Djokovic 25% - today 25% - 2008 AO SF vs Tsonga 25.5% - 2012 Wimb vs Rosol 26.4% - 2016 Wimb vs Kyrgios
@AlGruskin
Alex Gruskin
3 years
I’ll defer to @tennisabstract for the official stat, but that’s about as a good of a serving performance as I can remember by anyone against Rafa (Tsitsipas stats on the left) Rafa won only 34 points in 25 Tsitsipas service games last night. That’s outstanding execution by Stef
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
How about this for a wild stat from today's Rublev-de Minaur match: de Minaur hit more winners than Rublev: 42 to 39. Rublev committed 14 more UEs. But... by my count, Rublev dominated the forced error category, inducing 55 of them to de Minaur's 31. That was the difference.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
My favorite thing about men's tennis is the diversity of opinion
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
Roger Federer's first serve speeds through the first three rounds at Wimbledon, compared to the first three rounds, 2014-19:
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Jeff Sackmann
3 months
19 on the men's side. More than I expected.
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Jeff Sackmann
2 years
I may have found the greatest ever "in my day" tennis quote. John Newcombe: "The Bryan brothers play a nice game of doubles and best of luck to them. In our day they’d have been lucky to make the quarters."
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
In case you missed it, Ashleigh Barty hit inside-out forehand winners on back-to-back points at 3-4 in the second set today. Here is where they landed:
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
I'd like to show you all my favorite two sentences out of the entirety of Wikipedia
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Jeff Sackmann
5 months
Coverage of men's tennis versus women's tennis:
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
Murray vs Paul in the Aix CH final -- a combined ranking of 69 (52 + 17). It's only the 30th time that a CH final has had a combined ranking <= 100. It's tied with 2000 Braunschweig (Gaudio-Squillari) for the 3rd best combined rkg . Record is 46: 2009 Sunrise Soderling-Berdych.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 months
Danielle Collins is riding an eight-match win streak thanks to some outrageous second-serve returning. Today I wrote about how she stacks up to the rest of the field, and whether opponents ought to stop hitting her second serves entirely:
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
Dodo Cheney--champion of the 1938 Australian Championships--was 57 years old when she picked up a win at the Pacific Southwest in 1973. I'm looking forward to 2037, when Venus breaks that record.
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Jeff Sackmann
2 years
Everyone associated with Tennis Australia ought to be mortified by this. What an embarrassment. Time to start looking for a new host for the fourth major.
@DrewPavlou
Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇦🇹🇼
2 years
BREAKING - Australian Open security call in police on human rights activists @pakchoi_boi @maxmokchito for wearing “Free Peng Shuai” shirts, try force @pakchoi_boi to take off shirt in public area right next to @naomiosaka training session - the most vocal athlete on Peng Shuai
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Jeff Sackmann
5 months
Another disappointing loss from Felix Auger-Aliassime yesterday. The culprit was a familiar one, weak performance against deep returns. That's my topic for today:
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Jeff Sackmann
11 months
Here's what my Elo-based forecast has to say about title chances on the men's side of the US Open. Ten guys with a 1% chance or better: 40.5% Djokovic 25.7% Alcaraz 12.2% Medvedev 7.0% Sinner 2.9% Rune 2.2% Tsitsipas 2.1% Fritz 1.2% Paul 1.1% Rublev 1.0% de Minaur
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
Today I wrote about the Jelena Ostapenko experience: lots of winners, lots of errors, lots of three-setters, and the reasons why none of that is going anywhere:
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
This is Maria Sakkari's 17th straight match in which she's won at least one set. Last woman to beat her in straight sets? Barbora Krejcikova, Dubai R1.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
And you thought your fave had a good year
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
My Elo-based Wimbledon men's forecast has Djokovic as a heavy favorite, at 37% for the title, followed by Alcaraz at 14.5%, Medvedev at 9%, and Sinner at 6%. Here's Novak's quarter:
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Jeff Sackmann
5 months
Today I wrote about our new overlord, Jannik Sinner. What happens when somebody is good at everything? Well, we just spent two weeks finding out.
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
Thank you Gill. Lots of fun new stuff coming to in 2024.
@Gill_Gross
Gill Gross 🏜️
6 months
The new ATP website has made getting information for broadcast way harder. I can't imagine a world without @tennisabstract , which for those who don't know, is a one-person passion project. It's both a huge compliment to Jeff and an indictment on tennis stat-keeping broadly.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
This is the 7th time that Vera Zvonareva and Svetlana Kuznetsova have made the semifinals of the same event: 2004 Warsaw 2004 Eastbourne 2004 Beijing 2008 Miami 2008 Beijing 2010 Montreal ... 2021 St. Petersburg
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Jeff Sackmann
27 days
Musetti beat Mpetshi Perricard in Stuttgart today by the unusual score of 7-6(9) 7-6(9). That's the most tiebreak points played in a two-set match on grass (data back to 1991), and just the second time on any surface that both sets went to 9-all in the breaker.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
I want to develop something using artificial intelligence for tennis just so I can call it AI Sugiyama.
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Jeff Sackmann
6 months
Today's post is a deep dive into Ben Shelton's return game, and what it means for his ceiling as a player. Here's one part of it:
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Jeff Sackmann
1 year
I found 32 WTA matches since 2000 between the #1 and #2 ranked players at the time. Here they are:
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@Sagarerr
S a g a r
1 year
@tennisabstract Is it possible to get a page which lists all matches between Top 2 ranked players? 🙏🏻
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Jeff Sackmann
4 months
Whoa!
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
With Muguruza and Raducanu out, my Elo ratings are ready to throw in the towel and declare Indian Wells a 46-way tie.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 months
Updated women's Elo ratings: - Rybakina sneaks up to #2 ! - Collins not far from her 2022 peak - another new high for Navarro
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Jeff Sackmann
3 years
Whoever did the "official" scoring for the Bogota final has a *way*-overbroad definition of unforced errors. I just charted the match, and got 53 for Osorio, 62 for Zidansek. I don't claim the ultimate truth, but no way they UFE'd 71% of total points, like the broadcast claims.
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Jeff Sackmann
3 months
Updated Elo ratings: - Sinner hits new career high, opens up a 60-point lead over Djokovic - Look at that top 3 in (clay) cElo! - Hello Grigor!
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Jeff Sackmann
1 month
Novak Djokovic now has a record-setting 59 major QFs, and 340 major match wins. Only 28 active players--men and women--have reached 59 *total* QFs and won 340 *total* tour-level matches. And the list will get shorter before it gets longer. cc: absolutely bonkers @AlGruskin
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