This may well be nonsense (it was ever thus...); but PM Johnson seems to have a plan. It gives me no pleasure to say this, but it will be difficult to stop. 1/
You know how the Chancellor cut fuel duty by not 1p, not 2p, but *drum roll* 5p per litre?
Since last year's Spring statement, petrol prices have risen by... not 1p, not 2p, but *drum roll* 40p per litre.
I have to say that I am struggling with this notion of a super-majority.
I was brought up to believe that a 52:48 ratio gives the winning side free rein.
Why does it take tweets from Dominic Cummings to prompt the media to find the footage of the Govt saying that its policy in March was herd immunity?
When Ministers deny it (why?), why doesn’t the media show them said footage?
The shortage of lorry drivers is, apparently, a global problem. And yet we can solve it, apparently, by a short-term visa fix.
Any pretence at coherence has left the building.
The dismissal of (eg) John Major's comments, on the grounds that he is a remainer, is one more reminder of how the shadow of the Brexit vote still casts a shadow over our politics. 🧵 1/
This shouldn't need saying again, but in view of today's media coverage of the NI Protocol, perhaps it does.
The problems are *not* caused by the NI Protocol, but by this particular form of hard Brexit. 🧵 1/12
Just logged onto twitter... to see that the Govt and Tory MPs are telling anyone who disagrees with their position (on legal, moral, economic, or practical grounds) to 'shut up or else'. It isn't new. And it isn't good.
Various tweets from
@LeaveHQ
are getting a lot of attention today. To sum up: a) Brexit is not going well (agree); and b) this is remainers' fault for failing to compromise (strongly disagree). Thread. 1/13
So, supporting Kwarteng and Truss, and their economic gurus, Minford, Lyons and a (slightly half-hearted) Jessop; we have Hannan, Lilico and Ashcroft and some of the more obscure residents of Tufton St.
They have a near 100% track record. Of being wrong. About everything. 1/4
Given that the Govt got all the big calls right and delivered a world beating COVID response, it’s baffling that they seem to be at pains to challenge the jurisdiction of the inquiry they (belatedly) called. 1/3
Is the person laying into Naomi Osaka in the Daily Mail the same person who stormed off his own TV show claiming that he didn’t have to listen to criticism?
I started jotting down the similarities I see between right wing arguments for Brexit, and right wing arguments for lifting the lockdown, and now have what is quite an alarming twitter thread. 1/20
Johnson's 'deep state' conspiracy theory has, quite rightly, attracted a lot of negative comment. This thread identifies some of the collisions his Govt has had with people and institutions who stand in its way. 🧵1/15
Semi-serious question. How do we know how many letters Graham Brady has received? Say he has received 60, but wasn't persuaded it was time to act... what would stop him claiming that we had not got to 54?
Piggy-backing on the unexpected success of this thread, this is what I have been arguing for (from a strongly remain perspective).
If there is no good Brexit, we can, and should, revoke. Clearly, the various parties are still some way away...
@PippaCrerar
What are the constraints on the Govt's power?
Parliament (select committees, the Lords), the ministerial code, the media, the courts, the EU/ECHR, protest, elections.
The Govt has targeted them all.
Jury trials are the latest in a long list of things which have displeased the Govt. Its reaction looks like it is following a familiar - grim - pattern. THREAD 1/11
The easiest way to stop this plan is to prevent him from winning the GE. That depends on the opposition working together. Looking at the relationships between Corbyn, Sturgeon, Swinson and Lucas; Johnson might well calculate that he has nothing to fear. 12/12
1. Announce ludicrous, eye-catching, unworkable policy.
2. Denounce all criticism from the establishment (or, now, the woke).
3. Blame the predictable failure of the policy on the critics.
It’s looking very familiar.
In short: They say that they are doing fine things 'for you'. But look at the evidence. They have done a lot more for themselves than they have done for anybody else. 10/10
I’m seeing lots of Cabinet Ministers expressing outrage at
@BristolUni
.
How dare they.
I have it on good authority that the National Anthem isn’t played before Cabinet meetings.
Are they ashamed to be British? Are they in thrall to woke ideology?
Can I add my name to the chorus of voices (eg
@guitarmoog
) calling for the Lab and LD parties to work together. There should (in my view) be no promises of a coalition. But there should be a shared commitment to stop Johnson's agenda (on Brexit and beyond). 1/4
The thing that gets me more than anything else about Partygate is the attempts that are, and have been, made to justify the PM's (and Downing Street's) conduct. 🧵1/12
At the risk of repeating myself... the opposition parties are messing up this General Election. They will hand PM Johnson a 5-year mandate. Seen through a Brexit lens, things are very straightforward. But the opposition has simply failed to meet the GE challenge. Thread. 1/
A BBC journalist used 'deceitful' methods to secure 1995 interview. Wow.
Have the 'outraged' press forgotten about phone hacking?
Has the 'outraged' government forgotten about its relationship with the truth?
Was reminded of this today. Name the speech…
‘But today, too many people in positions of power behave as though they have more in common with international elites than with the people down the road, the people they employ, the people they pass in the street.’ 1/
There was, for some optimistic souls, a flicker of hope with the removal of PM Johnson.
Perhaps things would change, and at least some measure of integrity and seriousness would be restored to UK politics.
But no. 🧵 1/7
2022.
Whether the Govt likes it or not, Brexit is still very much a live issue. What we are seeing (and I predict we will see a lot more of it) is a fracturing of support for the Govt's approach. THREAD. 1/17
These Downing Street parties.
How come we know lots of detail re games, numbers, timings etc and yet don’t know who was there? Even though attendees have, it’s said, been speaking to journalists?
Funny how, for many Tory MPs, Sue Gray’s political links make her report and investigation partial and unreliable; while Richard Sharp’s make him a suitable man to uphold the independence of the BBC.
It's central aim is the pursuit of power. It seeks to 'take back control' not only from the EU, but also from Parliament, the civil service and the judiciary. 6/10
The double-standards and hypocrisy of the Govt and its outriders - on almost all fronts - is dizzying. I get that it is a deliberate strategy, but really struggle to understand how so many people are taken in.
Just a few examples... 1/7
As COVID restrictions are lifted, it is becoming more and more difficult to resist the conclusion that Brexit is having a profound effect on our economy, and its ability to recover. 1/6
@PippaCrerar
And, once more, it is not a new thing. It has been obvious since the start, re Brexit, and more alarmingly, re all other sites of scrutiny and accountability.
The way he approaches Brexit should not be seen as cakeist and naive. In policy terms it is: but the thing is that his Brexit plan is not intended to succeed. Instead, it is only intended to create the narrative around which a GE can be won. 3/
Unpopular opinion coming up...
The stories about how slow the Govt was to react to the coronavirus tell us that the Govt does not plan properly, has a casual attitude to risk, and a strong belief in British exceptionalism. For those following Brexit, that is not news. 1/5
One of the root causes of the Govt's Brexit difficulties is that it has overpromised.
We can, it is said, reclaim our sovereignty, with the freedom to make our own rules, and, at the same time, retain many of the advantages of EU membership. 1/14
But the plan is not to leave without a deal in October. That, as he knows, would cause huge disruption, and would not augur well for him as PM. The plan is to be ready to leave... but then to be thwarted by public enemy number two, the remainer Parliament. 6/
When you've lost the support of royalists at St Paul's, mumsnet, the red wall, the blue wall, the police and the civil service, business, David Davis, Steve Baker, Jeremy Hunt and Tobias Ellwood... 1/3
I was late to this, but it is excellent.
'We... admire politicians who show flair in the accumulation [of power]. But ability to acquire power has never entailed an ability to exercise it.' 1/2
@supertanskiii
It is insane - but worth listening to, in order to see how some people see the world.
If only he hadn't fallen into a woke globalist elite trap, he could have been more like Trump. And now the UK is vulnerable to 'leftists'.
The plan is not what some might expect. He is more interested in power than in Brexit. His aim (so I argue here) is to fight, and win, a GE, and to obtain a mandate for the next five years. 2/
Looking at UK politics, the start of the war of Ukraine crisis has unsettling echoes of the start of the COVID pandemic (more or less exactly 2 years ago). 🧵 1/10
There are a lot of Brexiters in the media this week making points about sovereignty, and about how the EU has not come to terms with the UK's independence.
I have some questions, which it might well be fruitful to ask them. 1/9
Surely the diaries, notebooks and WhatsApps are packed with relevant material from which we can all learn lessons about how a closely-knit, laser-focused leadership team functions in times of crisis? 3/3
He is not interested in policy, let alone policy detail. I struggle to understand how many seem to think he has any convictions about (eg) Brexit, climate change, levelling up, culture wars, etc. 5/
He wants to be able to fight a general election, as the man who is standing up for the British people; against the twin evils of the EU and the remain establishment. Vote Leave (and Dom Cummings) have, remember, done this unexpectedly successfully once before. 8/
Let's look beyond partygate. It's what the Conservative Party seems to want us to do.
If we do, we see that Party's problems go far beyond party problems and the persona of the PM. 🧵 1/10
So... All that happened yesterday was the removal of the least popular members of his team.
I see next to no prospect of a change in policy direction... unless (as before) there is a strong enough sense that the popular will is shifting. 14/14
First, he will go 'our EU friends', appealing to their economic self-interest, demanding things he knows he cannot get. He will present himself as a 'can-do dealer'... whose plan has only been thwarted by intransigence in Brussels. 4/
I've been reading a lot on here about what might happen now that Liz Truss has replaced Lord Frost.
There's one aspect which has received insufficient attention; the position of the ERG wing. Thread. 1/11
Watch for the sharp shift in tone (which will come when the time is judged to be right). Erstwhile friends in the EU will become public enemy number one. The UK will be strong and confident. In extremis, we go it alone, and leave without a deal. 5/
Much of the coverage of the latest scandal engulfing the Govt is cast in terms of 'sleaze'.
It may just be me, but I don't think that is the right framing. 1/6
It uses its patronage and power to dominate the media. Cronyism and corruption are rife (and in the COVID crisis, have cost many thousands of lives). 7/10
10 mins in front of the news was enough to drive me to intense frustration.
The Tory party 'line to take' today is that the unbridgeable divide is the result of the failure of the EU to recognise that the UK is an independent sovereign state.
It is nonsense. THREAD. 1/11
In the mind of the PM, what matters is the pursuit of power. He is, as I have written several times, single-minded in the pursuit of power, and does all he can to resist constraints on that power.
4/
Behind the rhetoric, one might hope for some substance, and for at least the beginnings of a coherent policy agenda. And yet - be it the relationship with the EU or the wider world, COVID or tackling inequality - there is *nothing*. 3/10
Scrolling through twitter… it’s difficult to know whether to give more credence to the accounts claiming that the 29-year-old woman given a peerage is one of Johnson’s many children or one of his many sexual conquests. They can’t all be right, surely?
It is difficult to keep track of the shape-shifting arguments of the UK Govt on the NI Protocol (I've been listening to Frost, Kwarteng and Burns).
There are several strands which come up. The Govt is all too rarely interrogated about the detail. 1/13 🧵
The Johnson Govt excels at 'sloganeering populism'. 'Get Brexit Done', 'Global Britain', 'Freedom Day'... and now 'Levelling up'.
The rhetoric projects energy and is meant to show a Govt devoted to 'the people's priorities'. 2/10
Last night, I found myself thinking about
#Partygate
again. And not just because I have questions about what the Met Police have been up to.
I was thinking about
#Partygate
in the context of hubris and nemesis, and the Tory Party response to the Ukraine crisis. 🧵 1/12
He transparently does not. He doesn't care one way or another how policy develops.
All he cares about is how policy plays with first the Tory Party and its supporters, and second the voters. 6/
As sites of accountability disappear, the only constraint on its power is the popular vote.
The FPTP system is already in its favour. And, it is taking steps (eg on voter ID, the FTPA and constituency boundaries) to load it still further. 8/10
The blame for that lies with successive Conservative Governments; not with those who have been pointing out that what they have been promising is impossible and undeliverable. 13/13
'Ripping up the protocol', on the other hand, does *nothing* to solve the underlying problem. It only succeeds in further eroding what's left of the reputation of the UK Govt. 12/12
The fact that Johnson may yet survive partygate is a damning indictment (well, more a reminder) of how far standards have fallen. There are at least 3 dimensions to the scandal. 1/7
He will provoke the moderate Tories. He probably knows that they require quite a lot of provoking. He will not seek to undermine the confidence of the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. But he will starve the Brexit Party of political space. 7/
All this points, as I said a couple of days ago, to an Autumn general election. It is consistent with the UK's inability to concretise Brexit - both his 'new deal' and his 'no deal' will remain stubbornly undefined until after the GE. 10/
The 'sloganeering populism' is intended to do the rest. That is now coupled with a relentless culture war - a 'stoking of division'. This strategy works (in electoral terms) so long as the minority which supports the Govt is 'large enough'. 9/10
To win, he needs to neuter the Brexit Party (I suspect that the jury is out on whether to offer some sort of pact or to opt for a more aggressive strategy), and bank on the fact that the 'remain' opposition will remain disunited. 9/
If this year’s Tory Party conference has achieved one thing, it has been to give pause for thought to those who claim that there is no real difference between the Tories and the Labour Party. 1/3
The ‘energy bills crisis’ affects households and business. But I haven’t seen anything about the impact on hospitals, schools, universities and the rest of the public sector: surely their budgets (and ability to provide services) will be seriously hit too?
On each of these issues, the Govt has shown itself to be unable to make choices. It seems paralysed. Whenever it moves in one direction, it backtracks.
The Tory Party (and in this it is not alone...) is internally divided and devoid of ideas. 4/10
It is a profoundly dangerous time. There is little in the constitution which can withstand a Govt determinedly acting in this sort of way. For better or worse, public opinion, and public action, is the key. 11/11
I wonder how many people will have seen this yesterday… and how many will have seen the coverage of Farage?
Newsworthiness is a difficult topic. But if you want to show politics in a good light, and combat cynicism, then maybe show more of this sort of thing?
'One of my biggest fears in life is what happens to him when I'm gone.'
Speaking on
@ITVTonight
, Sir Ed Davey opened up about juggling responsibilities as Liberal Democrat leader and caring for his disabled teenage son |
@rachyoungeritv
reports
Liam Fox (today): We've got to get beyond abstract political principles in order to get a deal.
Also Liam Fox (today): The EU has a problem understanding that the UK is a sovereign state.
For the benefit of Bernard Jenkin and others - a recap. This thread is on the Withdrawal Agreement (WA), and its relationship with any future relationship deal the UK and the EU might strike. 1/13
The problem, it strikes me, is that they are making their case only to each other and to the Tory members.
And they seem to be much more interested in forthright low-tax high-sovereignty Conservative rhetoric than in answers to difficult questions. 6/6
We know that the plans of governments are often derailed by 'events'... and we know that, in recent years, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been hugely significant and disruptive.
But I'm becoming increasingly annoyed by the Govt's use of 'events' as an excuse. 🧵1/6
That won't make for coherent policy. It won't be easy. But Michael Gove may have the requisite skill set - telling people what they want to hear, and shamelessly denying the contradictions inherent in the message. 11/