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Philip Shetler-Jones Profile
Philip Shetler-Jones

@shetlerjones

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Senior Research Fellow, Indo-Pacific Security @RUSI_org Tweets personal opinion. More 🐍 会 than みやぎ道

Joined April 2011
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 months
New version of Godwin’s Law: “As an online discussion about illegal or aggressive behaviour by China or Russia grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving the Cuban missile crisis or Monroe doctrine approaches 1.”
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 months
@gabrielmilland Did you not chat much with the locals ? Outside Paris they mostly loathe Macron and what he represents.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
Where are all those commentators who said post-Brexit Britain was going to be bypassed by Washington on security in favor of Paris, Berlin and Brussels?
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 months
If the US was in a war with China, and US lives were being lost, US would cut China off from energy, food, and finance. These are not things Chinese society can long do without, but US is mostly self-sufficient in. China loses fast.
@philippilk
Philip Pilkington
2 months
Looks like the military guys know what’s up. In a war with China there would be a trade embargo. Military manufacturing in the US would grind to a halt almost immediately. But due to a massive competency crisis in DC, they might push for it regardless. 🇺🇸🇨🇳
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Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
Sunak on China threat - interesting list of closest allies: “If you look at the approach of our closest allies on this, whether it’s Canada, whether it’s Japan, whether it’s Australia or the US, our approach to this question is exactly the same”
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 months
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Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
@STWuk Dear @STWuk , have you considered addressing your plea to "stop the war" to the people doing the fighting outside their borders (hint, it is Russia)?
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 months
Don’t all imperial powers go through this psychodrama? De Gaulle said without Algeria, we aren’t France. Some Brits thought similarly about the Raj. It’s wrong but it’s consistent.
@DAlperovitch
Dmitri Alperovitch
2 months
Putin on his endgame: “They [the West] say that they want to achieve the strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield. What does this mean for Russia? For Russia, this means the end of its statehood. This means the end of the 1000-year history of the Russian state. I think
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@COdendahl Sorry to say it but Germany is the king of implausible excuses for not doing things.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
11 months
How is this more efficient than just sailing up through Suez?
@subnut
Vice Admiral Arun Kumar Singh
1 year
Proposed India-Middle East-Europe trade corridor explained in this video.
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
What a brilliant insight. From now on, right after a war breaks out, why don’t we just jump immediately to the peace conference stage, and skip the fighting bit completely?
@democracynow
Democracy Now!
2 years
U.K. Labour MP @jeremycorbyn says there needs to be more momentum for a ceasefire in Ukraine and negotiations to end the war. "All wars end with some kind of peace conference. Let's jump to that stage."
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
Japan and Britain to sign a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) next week, that will will waive requirements for immigration checks when personnel stay in each other’s country and simplify procedures for bringing in arms and ammunition for military training.
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Philip Shetler-Jones
8 months
Japan is quietly shifting into a role as regional security provider, with the objective of strengthening deterrence against unlawful action and the unilateral use of force in its region.
@IndoPac_Info
Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
8 months
#Philippines To Grant #Japan Access to Military Bases - Reuters "Proposed PH-Japan military access deal seen to help maintain peace in West PH Sea" — Marcos The Philippines and Japan have started talks on a reciprocal access agreement that would allow the deployment of
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
Quite telling that PRC seems to have concluded that anti-Americanism is the best it can offer the European audiences. Not exactly inspiring performance for the 5,000 years old civilization.
@bueti
Reinhard Bütikofer
2 years
Indeed, Wang Yi tried hard to insult the U.S. while wooing the Europeans. It was so obvious that only completely naïve people (or people that look for any pretext to pander to the PRC) would fall for it.
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@MacaesBruno Classic Russia. Humiliation 1 (making you bow) is not enough. There is always humiliation 2, showing everyone that you got bowed and still got nothing. Ask Macron.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@OzraeliAvi I think you have the definition of warmongering wrong. It means encouraging aggression, and self-defence is not aggression.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 months
“China says it wants good relations with the West. At the same time, Beijing continues to fuel the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War Two. They cannot have it both ways.” Clearly they can, though. Europeans not doing anything to change it.
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Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
What a bleak testimony. Was this really the mindset the @FCDOGovUK had to look to for leadership ?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
Tremendous graphic
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@james_rogers
James Rogers
3 years
What drove #Australia , the #UK and the #US to set up #AUKUS ? What are the geopolitical implications of the group? My piece for #BritainsWorld today, complete with a geopolitical map!
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@b_judah If he thinks CCCP was a success, I hate to imagine what his idea of a failure looks like.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
5 months
Future of the Sino-Russian alliance?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@DerekJGrossman Kuwait 1990
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@MacaesBruno There’s a lot to be said to beating Russia slow enough to forestall escalation, and deep enough to delay recovery of the potential for aggression.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@MacaesBruno Putin caught in a trap. How do you mobilize Russian population without stoking international measures against Russian population?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
9 months
Japan, UK conduct first joint drills since signing security cooperation pact | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
4 months
@ElbridgeColby So ROK becomes a base for US operations against China, while shifting the role of defending ROK against DPRK to ROK forces? Wonder how that goes down with Koreans?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 months
@Joel_P_Atkinson I often hear this logic, but is it really valid? Surely air and missile forces from the mainland can already strike Japan's SLOCS now? Does an extra few hundred km move Eastwards make such a difference?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
11 months
@stephenWalt “Russia did start an illegal preventive war” - how is this a preventive war?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@NiMingda_GG Japan is not remilitarising. It has had a military capacity for decades. It is just upgrading its military power in proportion to what is happening in its neighbourhood.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@hanskundnani @bctallis People will always differ, but Russian defeat should include (i) out of Ukraine (ii) offensive capacity severely degraded/destroyed (iii) offensive intent deterred.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@SamRamani2 Looks like the definition of NATO is as elastic as the definition of Nazis.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
8 months
@fukumimi I am sure we will see the full scale of destruction in time, but I have been struck by the many videos of structures holding up amazingly well to the force of this quake.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@NiMingda_GG DPRK invaded the ROK, and US came in to reverse that. The armistice ended fighting with DPRK back in its borders, so win for USA.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
@adam_tooze WWII wasn’t just about Nazis, remember.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 months
@battleforeurope I don't think you need to worry so much, judging by how many NATO allies already fail to meet their NATO commitments.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
PLA Officer who asked about @NATO expansion got a clear response from Sweden MinDef: Enlargement didn’t cause Russian aggression. Russian aggression is driving enlargement. Food for thought for anyone worrying about an Asian NATO.
@RobertAlanWard
Robert Ward
1 year
Sweden’s Defence Minister Jonson speaking @IISS_org #SLD23 this afternoon - notes importance of Asia’s waterways for European trade, describes Russia’s ‘imperial ambition’ in Ukraine, says ‘supporting Ukraine is also investing in the global rules-based order’, that upholding the
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
First Sea Lord @AdmTonyRadakin "... while we’re at it, - let’s kill another myth. We have the people we need to crew these ships. Recruitment is up. Retention is up. We have 1000 more people than we did a year ago. We have a smaller HQ and fewer admirals."
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@DerekJGrossman I’d add Bosnia 1995, which I had the good fortune to observe directly.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
Sathnam Sanghera: “People who should know better, ..., sometimes complain about history being “rewritten”. But rewriting history is precisely what historians do.” Excellent ⁦⁦ @Sathnam
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
4 years
Strangely contradictory by @philipstephens . UK interests are apparently in “global development” and “the nation’s interests reside above all in a rules-based global order”, but having a global navy uphold freedom of navigation is somehow ‘Nostalgia’?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
Is Northeast Asia already a de facto area of European maritime interst?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
4 months
Useful way to visualise the ‘latticework’ structure that has the US-Japan alliance at the centre, but includes not just ROK and Australia, but also India, the UK and Philippines.
@kenj0126
神保 謙 (Ken JIMBO)
4 months
前ポストの「『ハブ・アンド・スポーク』式の二国間同盟を『格子状の』同盟構造に変換」という表現、「格子」の形状は本日の日経の図がイメージしやすい。変換というよりは、それぞれの枠組みの史的背景のある進化(evolution)だ。そうであるが故に「格子」として捉える意味は大きいとも言える。
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
4 years
@chenweihua Isn`t China Daily state owned?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
Japan, UK to arrange jointly to develop fighter jet's fuselage | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
@francessmith Boris derangement syndrome (suspected to be a variant of the still prevalent Brexit derangement syndrome) is approaching epidemic proportions in some parts of the media community.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@johnstanly You honestly don't see any difference?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
“China and Russia can share bitter experiences, but not happy ones.” In other words, it is only when facing a shared enemy that the two countries can form, out of convenience, a united front. - @YoichiFunabashi
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
@REVMAXXING NATO is growing. How’s that Eurasian Union getting on?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@RealScottRitter Guilty of helping a victim of aggression defend itself?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
On a day when the 🇬🇧🇯🇵 relationship takes a step forward, it is a pleasure to share this piece kindly translated by @iwatenippo @kyodo_official on the "New Type of Alliance" (original published in English at @ConGeostrategy ) #日英同盟
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
Prime Ministers of Japan and UK signed “Japan-UK Reciprocal Access Agreement” - documents in English and Japanese at the link
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
AUKUS Joint Steering Group "deepening cooperation on information-sharing and other previously agreed working groups". Also "will seek opportunities to engage allies and close partners."
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@RnaudBertrand Is that unreasonable? PRC says unification with Taiwan, by force if necessary, is inevitable.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
Japan joining AUKUS would indeed be a major and welcome development.
@KantaroKomiya
Kantaro Komiya
2 years
Australia, Britain and the United States have asked Japan to join the security pact AUKUS, Sankei newspaper reported, citing multiple government sources. AUKUS expects synergy with Japanese technologies on areas such as hypersonic weapons and electronic warfare, Sankei said.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
@samagreene He clearly feels — without specifying what a European position on China/Taiwan might be — that the most important thing is it should not be the same as the American position. Transatlantic difference is more important than European substance. He’s a vassal to his status anxiety.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
This fails to acknowledge that the response has been global, if not universal. Omission of the fact Japan, Singapore and South Korea, among others, are part of the sanctions coalition does not fit the "decline of the West" narrative, perhaps.
@EdwardGLuce
Edward Luce
2 years
"Since Feb 24, the west has been galvanised into more unity than it has shown in years. Yet most of the world is on the sidelines waiting to see which way it goes. Not for the first time, the west risks mistaking itself for global consensus." My column
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 months
@battleforeurope Hold on, give me a sec to put that on the planner
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@MacaesBruno Not forgetting UK was the first to bust the myth about some kind of alleged NATO "almost formal agreement" against sending certain types of tank.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@CER_Grant It doesn’t trap them in Russia. There are lots of other places for Russian tourists to go outside the EU.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 months
@battleforeurope I think you can cross this off your list of delusions about NATO
@terischultz
Teri Schultz
2 months
JUST IN: #NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg has reconfirmed to PM Orban that Budapest has no obligation to participate in any way with defending Ukraine. Stoltenberg says Orban has agreed not to block the other 31. This was the main purpose of Stoltenberg's visit.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
Japan Defence White Paper just dropped. Interesting set of developments illustrated here
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@ModJapan_jp
防衛省・自衛隊
1 year
〈#令和5年版防衛白書〉 本日、令和5年版防衛白書を公表しました。 「激変する時代」と題した安全保障環境や防衛省・自衛隊の取組の10年の変化に焦点を当てた特集や令和4年度の国際情勢、防衛省・自衛隊の取組などをまとめています。 ぜひご覧ください。#防衛白書
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
“The British military may no longer be as overwhelming as it was when the Anglo-Japanese alliance came into being, but the United Kingdom remains one of the world’s military powers and its re-entry into East Asia should not be minimized.”
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
@marceldirsus You shouldn’t be surprised, he’s been warning us he would do it (+5%), countries have been doing it forever, take off your “end of history” glasses (+5%), America”s constantly doing it (+5%), see, now he has our attention (+5%), important thing is to understand why he did it 🤪
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
@CheburekiMan No-one invaded a nato country. Success of the core mission.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
@Eivor_Koy @Kathleen_Tyson_ “The Chinese treat other countries and their people with enormous respect, and this is another excellent example of that.” ?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@Gerashchenko_en The mentality seems to be Ukraine is Russia’s to do what they like with, so it should be nobody else’s concern or business to get involved with. Just no acceptance of Ukraine as its own place.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
A reformer and conservative. A nationalist and an innovative architect of multilateralism. He sought escape from the US-imposed constitution, but tightened the US-Japan Alliance. Abe-san overcame the contradictions of Japanese leadership in his time.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
"🇯🇵officials gave their 🇩🇪counterparts an earful during 🇩🇪-🇯🇵 government consultations in mid-March. “It was 🇨🇳,🇨🇳, and more 🇨🇳” one diplomat told me. “It was a real eye-opener for those in the German government who have not been paying attention"
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@GermanyNATO @Bundeskanzler Perhaps something lost in translation, but discussion of these questions is surely not a priority. Is this really the time and place for sophomoric discussions?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
Japan, U.S. defense chiefs affirm cooperation over Taiwan emergency
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 months
@shashj Everyone I see on here who suggests Ukraine ‘negotiate’ with Russia, I ask them - ok, which of the Russian demands should they accept, and which reject? And so far none of them want to answer that question. It makes me think they say ‘negotiate’ when they really mean give up.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
Another reminder for those updating the UK Defence Command Paper that our most direct security concerns are closer than we sometimes think
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Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
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Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@shashj Intel chief caught by surprise..
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
This is a classic. Russia wishes to claim a fake "slap" since perhaps it does not dare to do more. PRC piles on, in anticipation of the same bluff-calling in SCS, perhaps?
@HuXijin_GT
Hu Xijin 胡锡进
3 years
The UK needs to receive a slap-like lesson. It denied Russian claims of warning shots, and even dared not say a word of protest, which especially shows that it bullies the weak and fears the strong.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 months
@Joel_P_Atkinson The other one I have doubts about is that if Taiwan goes then U.S. alliance system falls away. I suspect the result might be the exact opposite, and U.S. allies double down.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
@FuCong17 @MacaesBruno @NewStatesman When PRC cannot confirm Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea, why should others recognize Beijing’s claim of PRC sovereignty over Taiwan, let alone the South China Sea?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
"The 🇬🇧 relationship with 🇯🇵 has grown further and faster than with any other international partner, reflecting 🇯🇵's pivotal role in the Indo-Pacific and their centrality to the 🇬🇧's security and prosperity."
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 months
@philippilk How would the CCP and Chinese society do in a situation where their overseas supplies of energy, food, and raw materials was cut off? Surprised an investment professional is not factoring that into the scenario.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
1 year
Good and well aimed response to a question on @NATO at #SLD23 @PlJonson : Enlargement didn’t cause Russian aggression. Russian aggression is driving enlargement. Food for thought for anyone who is worrying about what might lead to an Asian NATO.
@IISS_org
IISS News
1 year
‘The mutual dependence between the Euro-Atlantic and the Asia-Pacific areas entails above all opportunities. But it also means that we have to pay close attention to a broad spectrum of risks, from conflict to supply-chain disruptions’ | @PlJonson #SLD23
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
2 years
@andrewmichta Not just weapons, either. China’s geography gives it large structural vulnerabilities on energy and food security.
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
@ulrichspeck Ulrich, serious question - my sense is almost all German foreign policy watchers (academic, thinktank, media) were anti NS2, yet it went ahead. What does that say about the degree to which Germany's wonk community represents or reflects mainstream German views on foreign policy?
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@shetlerjones
Philip Shetler-Jones
3 years
@WBWhiskeyBravo @RAF_Luton Keep an eye out for these guys
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