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@SHEPMJS Profile
@SHEPMJS

@shepmjs

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For the first time since 1860 we are fighting both a political and a spiritual war. We must not lose.

Joined August 2021
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
30 days
For every MSM article, every pundit every Harris lead poll this is the touchstone. "Harris has the entire Democratic Party, entire Dem establishment, almost all of the media backing her up. For them, she's the whole game. They will not let her fail if success is at all possible.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
15 days
With RFK off the ballot, Pennsylvania goes from Harris +2 to Trump +0.2 in the RCP aggregate.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
5 months
Amazing. The Presidential Medal of Freedom award once Trump is back in office
@ScottPresler
ThePersistence
5 months
On the way to Erie, Pennsylvania. Yes, we have Trump 2024 signs & eclipse glasses. This is the most prepared we’ve ever been for a voter registration event.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
8 months
The Boston Globe report further commented about the "big turnout helping the two local GOP specials" And again, when Trump is on the ballot it helps the down ballot as only he can get the turnout from unlikely voters
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Things you won't see in MSM and from GOP establishment #1 . Trump has gone from +20.4 Unfavorable to +4.6 a massive 15.8 point gain since 1/27/21. Buyers remorse
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
1 year
Baris: “Our polling shows that If Trump is not on the ballot Indiana is gone North Carolina gone, Florida and Missouri are right on the line” Basically future elections would be some combination of 2008/12 & GOP a presidential minority part in near perpetuity given demographics
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
Haley 2.2% in Michigan's "only GOP voters can vote" caucus You get the picture
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
@Redistrict Here's the background on this historic win. Demographics are destiny except not in the way the Dems thought; "Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) is warning his party of a "self-inflicted tragedy" in the making among Latino voters.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
Yes I do like this; Larry Sabato on MSNBC just now: "The Democrats are in trouble."
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
17%-there you go: Trump's support has improved among voters of color. . Most Black voters feel Trump is trying to earn Black support. Black voters make up nearly a third of Georgia's electorate, and 17% of them today are picking Trump over Mr. Biden
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Democracy Institute Patrick Basham's final poll. Predicted Trump win on 2016. Like Big Data Poll not carried by RCP/538 "GOP 51% to 46% +5 ahead of Dems in House minimum gain of 33 to 38 seats “probably gain” of 39 to 51 seats. Senate 53/54"
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
7 months
Black intention to vote for Trump: Cygnal Feb 2-8 21% Big Data Feb 2-14 21.7% These are near exactly the same as my aggregate of 28 such subset of polls
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
9 months
Big Data Poll Update; Trump Versus Biden Minnesota: Trump +1.3 Ohio: Trump +13.6 Michigan: Trump +4.7 Pennsylvania: Trump +3.5
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
8 months
Thus dies the "Haley performs better against Biden than Trump" meme
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
8 months
She would never win no matter who the Dem candidate was. It's also unconstitutional.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
10 months
UPDATE: HarrisX Trump 53% Harvard Trump 53% Dem Corps Trump 51% Reuters Trump 51% Marquette Trump 52% CBS Trump 51% Fox Trump 50%
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
4 months
Have to break silence for a monumental event: Congrat's Rich @Peoples_Pundit 538
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Trump’s newly-established super PAC, known as MAGA Inc, has begun to book ad time in several key Senate races AZ-Sen: $1 million (in cable ads) GA-Sen: $750,000 NV-Sen: $127,000 OH-Sen: $1.34 million PA-Sen: $829,000 The group’s Ohio commercial is online
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
15 days
Really glum on CNN "All this is, is RFK selling himself to the highest bidder." They expected an all-day Kamalafest instead they got dust.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
So very bad; "Fox’s Peter Doocy asked Psaki about Biden’s campaign claim that if he were in office, Putin’s days of tyranny and intimidating Eastern Europe would be over."
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
Blacks Trump 16% Hispanics 38%
@IAPolls2022
InteractivePolls
6 months
🇺🇲 2024 National GE: @EchelonInsights 🟥 Trump 49% (+2) 🟦 Biden 47% . 🟥 Trump 43% (+3) 🟦 Biden 40% 🟨 RFK Jr 10% 🟩 Stein 2% 🟨 West 1% — Generic Ballot 🟦 DEM 49% (+3) 🟥 GOP 46% 538: #22 (2.7/3.0) | 3/18-21 | 1,006 LV
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
7 months
Can't add a jot to that
@Peoples_Pundit
Rich Baris The People's Pundit
7 months
The Republican Party is the dumbest party in the western world, right now. It may be the dumbest party in the history of self-governing societies.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Breaking: DeSantis "Thigh food" scandal now in the MSM. There is no way back for him from this now
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
7 months
Since Trump commenced to solidify his lead in the head to head aggregate on 9/25 Biden has never been above 43.7%. Trump has led in every aggregate since 9/13, five straight months
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
Deleted all links to 538, will never reference or see it again. The air seems somehow purer.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
As the Wyoming election looms the odds are shifting to Cheney:
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
My infallible predictions for 2022 1. Biden will not be president at end of the year. 2. President Harris will nominate Buttigieg for VP. He will struggle to get confirmed by House & Senate. 3. GOP will win both the House and Senate 4.Trump will announce he is running in 2024
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
Today is Trump's best day across the board ever: Trump leads in Pennsylvania aggregate despite the January Susquehanna Biden +8 poll and all seven Battleground states With PA assigned to Trump he leads in No Toss Up States 293 to 245
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Imagine him taking time out to acknowledge my simple Tweet-there's really nothing that can be added
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
11 months
Trump +1 poll (consensus atpit) Blacks 27% at the high end: (but each time I say that a poll comes out higher than previous). We can be confident Trump is higher than his +12 in 2020
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
Final delegate count from the three elections today Trump 125 Haley 0 But she did participate
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 months
Post trial red siren graph for Dems
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 months
I still can't get over the assassination attempt, the miracle of the turned head miss, Trump's astounding presence of mind, and utter incompetence of the SS and their DEI hires. A lot to digest, a historic moment on many levels
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Jeez Louise
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
26 days
Folks have been a bit down in the dumps following the MSM's hagiography of Harris, and losing the glow of being so far ahead of Biden. The interview is just the right medicine at just the right time, especially if she is starting to stall. Nil desperandum
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
1 year
Donated to the Trump campaign, only way I can fight back practically so. I am confident I won't be the only one.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
So beautiful
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
5 months
This is serious. If the bill passes it not only is a major block to Biden's election but frees up GOP cash and could get rid of Bacon in the primary
@charliekirk11
Charlie Kirk
5 months
🚨BREAKING: Nebraska's unicameral legislature now has a filibuster proof Republican majority as Sen. Mike McDonnell switches parties from Dem to Rep. This has massive implications for passing LB764, which would switch Nebraska to a winner-take-all electoral college state and
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
7 months
The GOP should thank their lucky stars for Trump. Without him on the ballot they are cooked. Again Whigs>>>>>>>>>>>> current GOP
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
9 months
Didn't become billionaires via political acuity: Wall Street’s top GOP donors are slowly realizing that former President Donald Trump is all-but-certain to clinch the presidential nomination.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
Durham/Clinton ABC/CBS/NBC coverage 0%
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
10 months
Remarkable figures and show the sometimes painfully transitory nature of political stardom; RCP Betting Odds Aggregate President: 1/3/23 DeSantis 35% Biden 28% Trump 14% 11/25/23 DeSantis 3% Biden 28% Trump 36% Biden was at 41% in May
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
If 12 point gain over Trump in rurals holds it's a good sign
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
Total views of @elonmusk "Blood bath" associated Tweets 172,000,000-so far. Maybe 20 times the entire MSM's posts
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
@yesh222 @JosephFordCotto Indies again. If, as all polls show indies are deserting Dems in droves midterms will be slaughterhouse "big factor expected to be independent voters. poll conducted by the University of North Florida that week showed independent voters are going for Howland by a 2 to 1 margin
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
@Redistrict In the one D/R head to head in what was a 1-2 point GOP win in two previous elections GOP running away with the race. Surely this is at least in large part a reaction to the Mar A largo raid
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
@Redistrict @CookPolitical Which is of course not the point regarding tonight's further confirmation of the historic shift by Hispanics (not Latinx) away from the Dems & the Electoral College implications for e.g. Georgia
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
LOL; USA Today Fav/Unfav: Trump (-4) 46/50 Biden (-19) 39/58 Harris (-19) 34/53 Pelosi (-35) 29/64
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
23 days
Excellent press conference, the contrast between that and Hiding Harris is stark. Also excellent. "Success will bring our country together"
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
1 month
It's flipped!! Perhaps we are not doomed
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
1 month
Well maybe we are doomed, wavering now.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
7 months
NY throws in the towel: "If you’re counting on a Trump conviction before the 2024 election, look elsewhere."
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
12 days
Positivity: "today’s polling suggests that Trump is poised to seize the largest margin of victory for a presidential candidate in Pennsylvania since Barack Obama’s eight-point win in 2008. Underreported Polling Suggests Trump Is Poised to Win PA
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
If that is the case then he doesn't have to pony up any cash. Getting kicked of twitter & starting Truth Social may turn out to be the libs biggest error ever.
@VRWCTexan
Tom T. ن‎ 🇺🇸
6 months
#BreakingNews tonite (via Fox News) DJT has been granted the necessary approvals to (in effect) pledge as loan collateral his estimated $3 Billion stock valuation in "Truth Social" (i.e. set to soon go public as part of a merger). This will permit him to secure a bond loan.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
Three in a row and...two out of three ain't bad
@Peoples_Pundit
Rich Baris The People's Pundit
6 months
Donald Trump has clinched the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
IMO at this point in time Trump is solid at 268 electoral College votes. He needs one of MI/WI/PA/NE2 to be elected
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Work of art
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 months
"The honeymoon will not last very long. Trump will succeed in painting Harris as out-of-touch San Francisco leftist, as Bush portrayed Dukakis Mass. liberal. Trump will find plenty of running room with that campaign, as there is hardly a left-wing cause that she has not embraced
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
ABC/WashPost Poll 2/24 Biden Approval 37% Disproval 55% -18 Previous -12 (41/53) The Economy 37/58 D vs. R Congressional R+7 Likely Voters Certain voters R +13
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
9 months
Including Dems, who can't vote in the poll, pushing up Haley's numbers, was egregious at best. Many thanks to all those who spotted it and for this explanation. The MSM can't get away with it anymore-we are watching and know stuff.
@Peoples_Pundit
Rich Baris The People's Pundit
9 months
A Word on New Hampshire Polling Drama
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
8 months
"Jury decides Trump must pay E. Jean Carroll more than $83 million in defamation trial" These ridiculous court/lawfare cases may be hurting Trump financially but they are immensely helping him politically as the public can see the bias
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
8 months
Carson is perfectly capable as the VP candidate and indisputably loyal.
@RealAmVoice
Real America's Voice (RAV)
8 months
Why Donald Trump Knew He Had to Run Ben Carson says Donald Trump had everything, but he put all that on the line when he realized the country was going off the cliff. Watch our full coverage of @RealBenCarson ’s speech in Davenport, IA here:
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 months
The best part of this Harris "honeymoon" (sic) will be the endless flow of salty tears when it collapses.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
14 days
RFK withdrawn status so far confirmed in Pennsylvania Ohio Arizona Texas, blocked in NY. OH TX surprising, perhaps to protect Cruz boost Moreno?
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
29 days
Pleased Trafalgar has it tight and realistic, signals they are back on their game
@IAPolls2022
InteractivePolls
29 days
📊 New Swing States polling by @trafalgar_group & @InsiderPolling NEVADA 🟥 Trump: 48% (+3) 🟦 Harris: 45% 🟪 Other: 5% — PENNSYLVANIA 🟥 Trump: 46% (+2) 🟦 Harris: 44% 🟪 Other: 5% — WISCONSIN 🟥 Trump: 49% (+1) 🟦 Harris: 48% 🟪 Other: 2% — NORTH CAROLINA 🟥 Trump: 49%
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
Example: “Among Michigan independent voters, 40% support Trump, 35% Biden, and 26% are undecided. When these independent undecided voters are pushed, their overall ballot test is split: 51% support Trump and 49% Biden,” Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling said
@Peoples_Pundit
Rich Baris The People's Pundit
6 months
Perfect example of why reporting results with leaners is debated among pollsters. Without leaners, you can see how Moreno could've surged at the last minute. But with leaners, as least how they leaned, it gave the perception it was closer than it was. FYI, it was not close.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
12 days
If she is down a couple of points in Pa & post-convention it is not surprising Trump is buoyant about the internal polling
@sethjlevy
The Reckoning 💥
12 days
Tapper is letting his audience know that the public polling is not reliable and it’s overstating Kamala’s strength.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
15 days
RFK hates the DNC with the heat of a thousand suns to do this to Harris the day after her coronation. Dems lawfare bit them in the ass bigtime
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
11 days
Vermin Supreme has qualified for the Delaware ballot which is of course perfect. Pirate Party Vermin Supreme
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
8 months
Rove theorized that Trump would win the Iowa caucus "by an unconvincing margin," Last year, he predicted that Trump's polling numbers would drop among Republicans. To his, and many others', disbelief, they rose. Karl Rove admits Trump will win in 2024
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
7 months
Conversely if we strip out the Quinnipiac poll Trump's lead is 2.91 but of course it doesn't work that way for @TheEconomist
@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
7 months
Quinnipiac Biden +6 is the only poll that should be considered
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
1 month
Whitmer now Cooper-why would they turn down the opportunity of a lifetime? "North Carolina governor Roy Cooper is bowing out of Harris VP contest"
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Post Supreme leak Court Polling Biden Approval; IPSOS 42% (9 days) -2 Rasmussen 41% ( 9 days) -2 IBD TIPP 39% (6 days) -4 Aggregate Approval 41.8 No Change
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
8 months
RCP on to it now : "Reapportionment following last census will allocate 3 additional electoral votes to states Trump won 2 more to Texas 1to Florida – and three fewer to the states Biden won. This will make Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes slightly easier to navigate."
@Peoples_Pundit
Rich Baris The People's Pundit
8 months
Solid analysis. Not enough is being said about how the census changed the Electoral College, making it mathematically "easier" for Donald Trump to win in 2024 than in 2020.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
17 days
The Dems seriously P'off RFK with Lawfare-it may well prove a costly mistake. RFK was hurting Trump/swung states to Harris in WI AZ MI PA (big time) Helped Trump in NC NV GA
@jonkarl
Jonathan Karl
17 days
Bobby Kennedy plans to drop out of the presidential race and endorse Donald Trump, sources tell me and @AaronKatersky "I will not confirm or deny that," Kennedy just told me, adding this about @VP Harris and the Dem Convention: "I think it was a coronation, it's not democracy"
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
8 months
Imagine how she would stand up to the Dems/MSM onslaught if she were the candidate. Those Haley +17 polls would diminish
@Peoples_Pundit
Rich Baris The People's Pundit
8 months
Yo, @NikkiHaley suggested that @votetimscott is endorsing @realDonaldTrump out of sexism. "Fellas are gonna do what the fellas are gonna do."
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
1 year
LOL Baris to be accused of polling too low: But "So how plausible is this, what to make of it?" <(!) "Across 5 high-quality polls month, Trump is averaging 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
19 days
Trump 40% with Hispanics is the exact number GW Bush received in 2004 when he won with the exact same Electoral College margin Trump is currently leading with
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
Absolutely killing it in rural. Big indication for midterms and since Trump only lost by 40k big indicator for 2024 at this point
@Redistrict
Dave Wasserman
3 years
Youngkin is rolling up huge margins in rural VA, making a lot of headway in outer suburbs and doing better than I'd have expected among in-person early voters. He's in the driver's seat right now. #VAGOV
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Put it this way; Last five none-daily tracker polls: GOP +2 +4 +5+6+7 Aggregate GOP +4.8
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
NY Times ask a worried question. "Share of Democratic Registrations Is Declining, but What Does It Mean? Virtually every group of voters under 70 has become less likely to register as Democrats compared with Republicans since 2019.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
9 months
Yes-DeSantis might as well have worn a millstone to the debate, or not done it in the first place
@Peoples_Pundit
Rich Baris The People's Pundit
9 months
And there it is... 9 seconds. Super scummy. Super deceptive. But... He got him. Also super damaging. Wake up.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Clarity
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 months
Movement in the Betting odds aggregate after the shock Fox poll. Was Trump +19.0% today Trump +19.1%
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
18.8 million views. The days of @MSNBC @NBC @CBS @ABC et al liars are over with X
@elonmusk
Elon Musk
6 months
Speech with full context
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 months
Remarkable 4 point swing to Trump in IPSOS Reuters of all polls
@sethjlevy
The Reckoning 💥
3 months
The convicted felon bump goes flat…
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
26 days
First time I have seen endless positive Tweets on Trump trending. GOP have woken up, let's hope they stay on track in future Politics · Trending President Trump 628K posts
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
6 months
Speaking of people with such inclinations: @pbump Philip Bump (Now sadly balding) WashPost "For years, Rasmussen’s results have been more favorable for Republican candidates and issues." Now do Quinnipiac the worst performing, most inaccurate bias to Dems poll.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
Dear @pizzahut the response (so far) to this simple tweet from an ordinary person may give you pause for thought: Impressions 383,000 Engagements 21,685 Likes 2,430 Retweets 837 Comments 1,006 Detail expands 5,312 Profile visits 2,803 Link clicks 9,100
@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
FFS when will corporate woke agenda end. That's OK, I can live without @pizzahut
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@SHEPMJS
7 months
MSM/Twitter have dropped the Carroll award like a hot potato. The ridiculous award $ and perceived Dem bias has turned from a crowing moment to a Dem embarrassment and confirmation of "Lawfare"
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
10 months
It's a thing of beauty
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
18 days
Monster numbers. Dems are done and dusted in FL 74% in Primaries: Rick Scott * 950,361 84.4% Tot. GOP 1,125,900 Debbie Mucarsel-PowellDEM583,560 69.5% TOT. DEM 839,444
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
3 years
Dems in freefall everywhere; GOP congressional candidates currently hold largest lead in midterm election preferences in ABC News/Washington Post polls dating back 40 years, AZ, FL, GA, NC, NH, NV, PA, WI Republicans 58% (+23) Democrats 35
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
16 days
With RFK off the AZ ballot now, Arizona goes from a Harris state to a Trump state in the RCP aggregate
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
"A Record Number Of Black Republicans Could Be Headed to Congress 81 Black candidates are running on the GOP ticket for the U.S. House likely that, come January, Republicans will have the most Black members serving together in the U.S. House since 1889.
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
22 days
New York Times
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@shepmjs
@SHEPMJS
2 years
First real sign of GOP sweep; "GOP pollster Frank Luntz is ‘scared to death’ about midterm elections: ‘I’m warning now that I don’t think we’re going to have a clear result on Election Day. Republicans will take control of House, Dems will keep their grip on Senate by a seat
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