Richard McElreath 🦔 @rlmcelreath Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Richard McElreath 🦔

@rlmcelreath

47,811

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Anthropologist @MPI_EVA_Leipzig - telling anyone who will listen that, if we are very careful and try very hard, we might not completely mislead ourselves

Leipzig

https://t.co/v5aLU0M7xi

Joined October 2014

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

12 days

The folks at @ISBA_events tell me my book Statistical Rethinking has won the 2024 DeGroot Prize for its contributions to "statistical inference, decision theory and statistical applications". This is huge honor especially given the previous winners, who have influenced me so much

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Last Seen Profiles

@aefflatus

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@Joey_Cheng_

@stw46

@stlamico

@FilmUpdates

@jodymcintyremp

@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

I used to teach game theory, both undergrad & phd levels. One game I would do at start is version of Keynesian beauty contest: everyone picks a number 0-100, person closest to 2/3 of average wins. Nash is 0. But anyone choosing 0 loses, bc the class aren't (yet) game theorists. >

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

22 days

Saying "there is one way to arrange zero objects" is the perfect example of sentence that makes sense to a mathematician but not to a person. I like it

@howie_hua

Howie Hua

23 days

Why is 0!=1?

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

this thread, in the parlance of our times. i have a phd.

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@mikekarnj

Michael Karnjanaprakorn

2 years

BS: "Happiness doesn't increase above $75,000" Truth: "Well-being rises linearly with log income (and doesn't reach a plateau)"

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

Ppl are on twitter for many reasons. I'm here to chew bubblegum & teach scientific inference. And I'm all out of gum. Engage yourself with 20+ hours of free lectures on causal inference and Bayesian data analysis. This isn't an ordinary statistics course.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

Cats reacting to bad COVID-19 models, a short thread. [This is beneath me but I really need this right now let me have this] Model 1

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Students who had previous exposure to game theory would get mad at the class. "You have to choose zero!" They were robbed of victory by the dumb majority. But this is how society works. Gotta have the right model of the distribution of strategies. >

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

The 2023 edition of my long-running anti-establishment art-science-fusion code-therapy smooth-baritone causal inference & Bayesian data analysis course is complete. 20 lectures, from the basics of causal inference & Bayesian updating to mixed models & Gaussian processes. 1/2

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

11 months

Forgive me, for I am about to Bayes. Lesson: Don't trust intuition, for even simple prior+likelihood scenarios defy it. Four examples below, each producing radically different posteriors. Can you guess what each does? Revealed in next tweet >>

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

We are almost there folks hang in there 2020 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 190%

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

Statistical Rethinking 2022 Complete Course is complete. 20 lectures from foundations of causal & Bayesian inference through DAGS, multilevel models & poststratified causal effects to Gaussian processes, Bayesian imputation & ODEs. Theatrical trailer:

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Statistical Rethinking 2022 - Theatrical Trailer

Montage of animations from the 2022 lectures. Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDcUM9US4XdMROZ57-OIRtIK0aOynbgZN

www.youtube.com

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Honestly publishing journal articles is the lowest impact activity I could do right now. I know not everyone finishes every video. But the sustained viewings are good this year. I remain at your service.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

It has been 951 days since Bill Gates gifted every stats teacher with this finely distilled tweet. It's so good, because Gates is not dumb. There is nothing dumb about not understanding conditional probability. It's only human.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Want to learn a little game theory? Lectures from my course "Very Little Evolutionary Game Theory". Topics: 1. Evolution of Conflict 2. Evol of Cooperation 3. Evol of Relationships 4. Evol of Families 5. Evol of Societies What at x2 speed for full effect:

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

2 months

These "how are Sardinians living so long" takes are still popping up. My favorite hypothesis: They lie about (or don't know) how old they are. Few of the 100+ folks have birth cerificates. Same phenomenon in elsewhere: offical birth certs appear -> supercents decline.

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@morellifit

Michael Morelli

2 months

The #1 spot in the entire world where people live to 100 years old: Sardinia, Italy. I wanted to find out what Sardinians are doing that other places aren’t… Here are the 5 key things I found: (Actions you can steal)

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

Science twitter is great, but a clean timeline requires work

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

slides for my course next week getting necessary memes now

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

I am giving an internal talk to the Max Planck IT community next month. They asked for something about the role of software in science. Here's what I'm giving them. I will try to record and upload afterwards...sure to be spicy.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

24 days

This is it, what I've trained for

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

Looking for something to do that doesn't involve large groups of people? 20 hours of soothing Bayes stats lectures are online.

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GitHub - rmcelreath/statrethinking_winter2019: Statistical Rethinking course at MPI-EVA from Dec...

Statistical Rethinking course at MPI-EVA from Dec 2018 through Feb 2019 - rmcelreath/statrethinking_winter2019

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

Statistical Rethinking 2nd edition page now lists code conversions for: * raw Stan+tidyverse * brms+tidyverse * PyMC3 * Tensorflow Probability * Julia & Turing I know other conversions in the works. If I have missed something, please let me know.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

Thinking again this morning that so much scientific writing is bad because it is written for hostile reviewers rather than for interested readers. Not sure there is a way out of this trap.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

It is yet again a good time to post this great paper from Xiao-Li Meng on how data quality influences effective sample size. You really musk read it. [pdf: ]

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

Science Before Statistics: Causal Inference — a 3 hour conceptual crash course in causal inference. Link to slides and code in the video desription.

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Science Before Statistics: Causal Inference

3 hour workshop for 2021 Leipzig Spring School in Methods for the Study of Culture and the Mind. Outline, slides, and code at https://github.com/rmcelreath/c...

www.youtube.com

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

Opening up Statistical Rethinking 2022 to external registration. All the materials will be public, so registration only necessary if you want to join weekly online discussion. Starts in January. Details: Register:

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

I spend a lot of time complaining about statistical practice, so recent followers might appreciate that I also spend a lot of time trying to present reasoned solutions. Like 20+h of free lectures on computational Bayes & causal inference. Vibe to trailer.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

11 months

I told a colleague that logistic regression is AI and they got mad at me, so I made a chart. Find yourself. I am "Tinder is AI".

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

First lecture for 2023 recorded. Hopefully the subtitle bot works overnight and I will publish tomorrow.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

16 days

Stats is broken. Causal inference is broken. Together they are less broken. I will teach a 3h online course in September, aimed at ppl who have tried to understand connections btw causal inference & statistical inference but were discouraged by notation & puffery. @StatHorizons

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

6 years

Millennials are killing bad science.

@jlehtoma

Joona Lehtomäki

6 years

72% of corresponding authors (CA) responded positively to a raw data request when the CA was an early career researcher. Same figure for senior researchers was only 11%. #openscience #hope #paywall

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

Done! All 20 Lectures of Statistical Rethinking 2019 — new material includes: Causal inference, instrumental variables, regression splines, better HMC notes, ordered categorical predictors, phylogenetic regression, more

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

5 months

Sure scientists spend decades using AI to publish nonsense statistical results but publish one giant AI rat testicle and suddenly it's a crisis

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

I still believe this slide may be the peak of my scientific career

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

This is going straight into my next lecture on missing data

@SkylarkHolly

Holly Vickery PhD

3 years

Working with goats 🙄🤦‍♀️

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

Excel converts everything into a date

@AnaLeticiaSimal

Ana

@AnaLeticiaSimal

4 years

Is this dating in grad school...?

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

5 months

This genetics-of-tail-loss study is cool, but also confirms the wisdom of @ZachWeiner @FuSchmu

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@matthewcobb

Matthew Cobb

5 months

10% of your genome is composed of traces of Alu, a mobile element that has jumped around our DNA for millions of years doing nothing important. But one of those jumps may have caused our distant ancestors to lose their tails, about 15 million years ago!

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

My Stat Rethinking course this winter has filled up. 160 people joining me each week through the magic of Zoom to work the problem sets and address conceptual questions. Everyone else is welcome to the materials, including lecrures & problem set solutions:

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

As summer gets started, here is a reminder that all 20 lectures of my 2019 applied bayesian stats course are online (with all notes and exercises/solutions):

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GitHub - rmcelreath/statrethinking_winter2019: Statistical Rethinking course at MPI-EVA from Dec...

Statistical Rethinking course at MPI-EVA from Dec 2018 through Feb 2019 - rmcelreath/statrethinking_winter2019

@bpetrushev

Baze Petrushev (beyond parody)

5 years

hey @rlmcelreath - just finished your 2019 rethinking course, all with exercises and owls done :) it was truly amazing and can't stop recommending it to people! thank you!

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Richard McElreath 🦔

6 months

Using excel to do calculations is like pipetting by mouth - convenient, usually fine, but sometimes you ingest an ectoparasite and lose $92 million

@heimbergecon

Philipp Heimberger

6 months

Norway’s $1.5 trillion sovereign wealth fund lost $92 million because of an excel spreadsheet error - "the most consequential misdated cell in history"?

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

Statistical Rethinking 2nd edition, scheduled for March 2020. Here's a summary of changes, with table of contents at the bottom.

Statistical Rethinking, Edition 2: ETA March 2020

[updated 18 Dec 2019 — see second edition table of contents at bottom] It came as a complete surprise to me that I wrote a statistics book. Really, I am an anthropologist. I study human evolution....

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

9 months

I teach the Kalman filter as a special implementation of a class of Gaussian Processes (GPs). Much of the modern world runs on these algorithms so a shame they are not more central to training, if that's the case.

@docmilanfar

Peyman Milanfar

9 months

The Kalman Filter was once a core topic in EECS curricula. Given it's relevance to ML, RL, Ctrl/Robotics, I'm surprised that most researchers don't know much about it, and many papers just rediscover it. KF seems messy & complicated, but the intuition behind it is invaluable 1/4

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

Every month, I send someone the "Table 2 Fallacy" paper. Let's stop bike-shedding over p-values and face the fact that most scientists have no idea what a regression coefficient means in the first place. Link:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

This debunked finding keeps coming back. Humans are at least as good at this task as the chimpanzees. It's a practice effect. See replies in the thread. Good television makes for bad theorizing.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

6 months

Mistreatment of missing data in the timeline again. It is yet again time to (meta)talk about missing data.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

One of the hard things about immigrating to Germany is the general lack of positive feedback. I was born here, but I'm still very American, so I give positive feedback & it makes ppl uncomfortable sometimes. This from the Max Planck Society's guide for foreign scientists:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

Open registration begins for the 2023 session of my annual anti-statistics course focusing on causal inference & Bayesian data analsysis & fully coded examples. Lectures will be free online, so no need to register unless you want to join discussions.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

You may know that I wrote a code-heavy, jokey, entropy-loving applied Bayes stat book. But you may not know that altruistic colleagues have translated the examples into: (1) tidyverse + brms (2) Python (3) raw Stan (4) Julia Everything linked at top:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

8 months

Causal salad, causal design, causal inference. I did a 3 hour workshop in Leipzig yesterday on causal inference, aka why your regressions are garbage lolsob. Here's a recording of me covering the same content, I promise it's not boring:

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Science Before Statistics: Causal Inference

3 hour workshop for 2021 Leipzig Spring School in Methods for the Study of Culture and the Mind. Outline, slides, and code at https://github.com/rmcelreath/c...

www.youtube.com

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Richard McElreath 🦔

6 months

I spent thousands of hours fighting unruly words and struggling against the inanity of English grammar for exactly this review

@pakdamie

Damie Pak

6 months

I'm taking my steps to becoming a bayesian (but I'm gonna bitch and complain my whole way about it) I'm gonna say this is the book that literally converted me. It's beautifully written in a way that makes me think of reading a novel almost.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

6 months

Likert scores are not integers and they cannot be subdued by pretense. Stop pretending and meet me in the warm 3rd circle of stats hell and learn about ordered categorical models. Lecture:

@focusfronting

katie

6 months

likert scale scores are not integers and i’m tired of people pretending they are

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

Looking for a distraction? Because reasons. How about 20 hours of causal inference and Bayesian statistics? Ranging from the foundations of inference to high-dimensional machine learning? Yeah that's the stuff. First sample is free. Okay it's all free.

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Statistical Rethinking 2022 Lecture 01 - Golem of Prague

Introduction to the course: Goals, golems, drawing the owl, meet a DAGSlides available on course webpage: https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2022I...

www.youtube.com

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

Things I do not do often enough: 1. inflate my bicycle tires 2. descale my de'longhi 3. call my mom 4. remind you that I made 20 hours of free bayes stats (really anti-stats) lectures because i love you

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GitHub - rmcelreath/statrethinking_winter2019: Statistical Rethinking course at MPI-EVA from Dec...

Statistical Rethinking course at MPI-EVA from Dec 2018 through Feb 2019 - rmcelreath/statrethinking_winter2019

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Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Trying to improve my upcoming lecture and I know I will spend 15 minutes looking for a cat pic that more closely matches the tiger's pose. But these are almost perfect.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Anyway relevant paper by @CFCamerer and colleagues:

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(PDF) A Cognitive Hierarchy Model Games

PDF | Players in a game are “in equilibrium” if they are rational, and accurately predict other players' strategies. In many experiments, however,... | Find, read and cite all the research you need...

www.researchgate.net

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

7 years

Statistical Rethinking (a Bayesian Course) 2017/2018 Lectures are complete — 19 lectures, 19 hours, countless bad jokes

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Statistical Rethinking Fall 2017

Lectures to accompany the book "Statistical Rethinking" http://xcelab.net/rm/statistical-rethinking/ These lectures were given in Fall and Winter 2017/2018 a...

www.youtube.com

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Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Okay I give up: A p-value really is the probability the null is true. We lost this game, statisticians. Every one of you gave it your best, and I will always be proud of you. But the scientists cannot be defeated by conventional means. GG

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Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

Not since the Battle of Teutoburg Forest in 9 AD have the Germans so demoralized the Romans

@MensaScran

Mensa Scran

2 years

Pasta carbonara at Universität Leipzig 🇩🇪 💶2,10€

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

11 months

For all the people who followed me recently because I posted some weird posterior distributions, I have made more than 20 hours of free lectures on Bayesian stats and causal inference just for you👇

@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

The 2023 edition of my long-running anti-establishment art-science-fusion code-therapy smooth-baritone causal inference & Bayesian data analysis course is complete. 20 lectures, from the basics of causal inference & Bayesian updating to mixed models & Gaussian processes. 1/2

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

If I am not answering your email, it's because I'm working on new (free) lectures to begin in January 2022. Fewer examples, but more workflow details and lots of new animation. I'll update this repo as the schedule and materials assemble:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

1 month

Writing a review and I just wrote: "People used to do theory. Now they just do regressions." I will delete my snark before submitting. But damn I am tired of vapid empirical papers that argue some neglected thing will transform our understanding and then ***regressions***

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

example of the category "things that horrify statisticians but seem arbitrary to everyone else"

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@TayaCollyer

Taya Collyer

3 years

Meanwhile, on Reddit... #statstwitter

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Richard McElreath 🦔

9 days

German rail unaffected because it runs on fax machines

@spectatorindex

The Spectator Index

@spectatorindex

9 days

OUTAGES - Biggest IT outage ever according to experts - Major banks, media, airports and airlines affected by major IT outage - Rail services disrupted in parts of US and UK - Payment systems impacted in different parts of the world, including Australia and the UK. -

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

Readers of my book will know the globe tossing example in the early chapters that I use to introduce bayesian updating. I have now fully virtualized it.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

My book is outsold by graph paper how is your week going?

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

Everything is selection effects, always has been. From page 162 of my book:

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@ProfSimonFisher

Simon Fisher

@ProfSimonFisher

3 years

“We show that published papers in top journals that fail to replicate are cited more than those that replicate. This difference doesn't change after publication of failure to replicate. 12% of postreplication citations acknowledge the replication failure.”

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Richard McElreath 🦔

25 days

So suppose I were thinking of leaving academia. Would anyone be interested in hiring me? DM and let's chat. I haven't made up my mind, but just trying to assess the landscape, eventually find someplace where I can make a difference

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Richard McElreath 🦔

18 days

"The general rule is that people .... do not read." Hilarious, true, sad and reminds me of this bit from 2nd ed of Collins & Pinch where they quote a physicist talking about the fact that physicists don't read:

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@ElliotMurphy91

Elliot Murphy

@ElliotMurphy91

21 days

Mel Andrews ( @bayesianboy ): “The general rule is that people in machine learning do not read”. 🔥

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

7 years

Scientist, post-doc, and PhD positions open in my department in Leipzig: Things we value in candidates: Open science, scholarship, mad skills Things we do not value: Number of pubs, journal impact factor, h-index

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Lecture recordings, slides, homework sets and solutions are all listed here. Take it at your own pace, as you like it. First half is a solid course in regression and causal inference. Second half turns it up to 11.

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GitHub - rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023: Statistical Rethinking Course for Jan-Mar 2023

Statistical Rethinking Course for Jan-Mar 2023. Contribute to rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023 development by creating an account on GitHub.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 month

Looking for a mind-growing distraction? How about my 3 part intro to Bayesian causal inference. It's like a condensed version of my book, 10 weeks of causal computation in 3 short blog posts. Take with plenty of water.

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Regression, Fire, and Dangerous Things (1/3)

It isn't my job to disappoint people, but I'm good at it.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

I was asked by a journalist how Bayesian stats is relevant to the epidemic. I said some deflationary things. I don't care about 19th century academic debates. I worry more about narrative that we need to get the models "right". We don't buy insurance bc we know what will happen.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Finally something we can all hate ()

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Richard McElreath 🦔

6 years

This is the 2 page template my PhD students and I use to draft their project proposals. This came up this morning, as I met with all the PhD students to review a bunch of committee procedures. Students seem to like this template.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 months

remaking my personal website as if it were the 1990s, everything lynx compatible

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

Just finished 2nd week of my bayes & causal inference course. Prerecording for internet audience is satisfying. Fewer spontaneous jokes but better content. First 4 lectures as alternative to doomscroll, my gift to you.

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Statistical Rethinking 2022

Course outline and materials https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2022

www.youtube.com

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Richard McElreath 🦔

9 months

Yes I will offer my online science-focused Statistical Rethinking course again starting in January 2024. Registration going up at the end of this month. All the course materials are already online though, so why wait? Update your posterior today

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Statistical Rethinking 2023 - 01 - The Golem of Prague

Full course details at https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023Chapters:00:00 Introduction03:30 DAGs (causal models)17:50 Golems (stat models)43:06...

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Richard McElreath 🦔

6 years

All the examples in my book have been translated into both brms/tidyverse and PyMC3. Everything linked at top here:

@JFBonnefon

Jean💜François Bonnefon

6 years

Summer project No. 1: Go through this bad baby by @rlmcelreath as reexpressed by @SolomonKurz using #tidyverse and #brms packages

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Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

So much Machine Learning snark in my timeline. But I honestly wouldn't be surprised if logistic regression would be a moon shot level of improvement in many industries. In some industries, coin flipping might increase accuracy. That's my optimistic cynicism for the week.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

Science as Amateur Software Development 50min talk, webcam edition As frustrating as software engineering can be, it is still more professional than normative scientific research. Lots of shade thrown at academia, some hopefully useful suggestions.

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Science as Amateur Software Development

Science is one of humanity's greatest inventions. Academia, on the other hand, is not. It is remarkable how successful science has been, given the often chao...

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

Golems, Owls & DAGs: Lecture 1 of Statistical Rethinking 2022. No hard work yet in this lecture. Just setting the stage. Lecture 2 dropping soon with Bayesian updating.

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Statistical Rethinking 2022 Lecture 01 - Golem of Prague

Introduction to the course: Goals, golems, drawing the owl, meet a DAGSlides available on course webpage: https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2022I...

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Richard McElreath 🦔

9 months

Chandler was a data scientist in the modern parlance right

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

I am simply not American enough for the amount of enthusiasm in gmail smart replies

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Richard McElreath 🦔

2 months

Alphabetical order mismatch and 52 of 78 neighborhoods had wrongly merged data. I spend a lot of time teaching advanced inference methods, but boring research data management remains the most essential skill. And that includes auditing for merge mistakes.

@jkangbrown

Jacob Kang-Brown

2 months

The findings in the published paper, however, are completely untrue, and can only be replicated using an improperly merged dataset. The findings are an artifact of failed data management.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

This short comment from Andrew Gelman on designing experiments is pointed and useful. Love the de-emphasis on power analysis but emphasis on simulating and making hard choices. PDF:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

6 months

Take heed, Statistical Rethinkers - there are many code translations of the book examples and the new lecture examples into your favorite dialect of SnakeScript or CleanSpace or whatever hacker nonsense you like. I try to maintain an updated list:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

my scheme revealed

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@ye_of_little

Faith

4 years

Oops, I accidentally stayed up until 1am reading Statistical Rethinking by @rlmcelreath . I really love the way in which he couches the use of statistical models in the history of the philosophy of science. 😍

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Richard McElreath 🦔

6 years

In a world of look-alike LaTeX conference posters, the hand-written manifesto gets my eyes every time.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

11 months

Typeset notes for my course "Very Little Evolutionary Game Theory". These are linked in the playlist below, but many people not finding sorry.

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Want to learn a little game theory? Lectures from my course "Very Little Evolutionary Game Theory". Topics: 1. Evolution of Conflict 2. Evol of Cooperation 3. Evol of Relationships 4. Evol of Families 5. Evol of Societies What at x2 speed for full effect:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

Slides + audio: A gentle 2 hour introduction to Bayesian data analysis & causal inference. This is "gentle" because it ignores computation & focuses instead on motivation, basics of Bayesian updating, simple confounds & colliders.

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Bayesian Inference is Just Counting

Conceptual introduction to Bayesian data analysis, focusing on foundations and causal inference. Nothing really about computational details. Summarizes mater...

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Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

I complain a lot about academia. But I also try to help. eg here are 20h of patient lectures on scientific inference taught at an algorithmic level. No one should have to learn this stuff the way that I did.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

2 years

I will tweet something wholesome and optimistic later to balance my energy

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Richard McElreath 🦔

8 months

Local registration for the 2024 round of my Statistical Rethinking course has begun. I'll open up registration on Sunday 3 December. Registration link will appear on the course github page:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Since I am talking about p-values today (only day this year I promise), the common claim that p-vals are uniform under the null is not in general true. Even in theory. Here is the dist of p-values under null for logistic regression, two groups:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

My editor is turning up the heat & the 2nd edition of Statistical Rethinking will be out next year. Below is 1st page of last chapter, summarizing my general attitude to stats. More here:

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Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

It’s happening

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@rlmcelreath

Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

Okay, I added vertical axes, as is my duty. Trying to put some version of this on cover of 2nd edition of Statistical Rethinking. It's an example in Chapter 4.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

Multiple regression is not an oracle that spits out the total causal effects of each explanatory variable. Adding variables can hurt as much as it can help, whether a study is observational or experimental.

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Regression, Fire, and Dangerous Things (1/3)

It isn't my job to disappoint people, but I'm good at it.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

5 years

Brand new chapter in 2nd edition of my stats book will be about using real scientific models to build statistical analyses. Need to edit it down now to only 3 distinct examples. Feel like I could do an entire book of examples like these.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

Many performers of music cannot read it. Okay. There are other, often more intuitive, ways to learn music. Scientists perform stat models. Most scientists cannot read them. This is less OK, but there are other ways to learn models. Short thread in which I strain this comparison

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Richard McElreath 🦔

4 years

Personally, I round all p-values to the nearest integer.

@hcp4715

Hu Chuan-Peng | @hcp4715.bsky.social

4 years

Reviewing a paper, found that the authors changed p-value of the critical effect, from 0.052 to 0.05. science tweeps, is it fraud? @siminevazire @lakens @JelteWicherts @BrianNosek @giladfeldman and many others

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Richard McElreath 🦔

1 year

In stats consultations lately, common problem across domains has been that scientists want to start with what they have measured (or can download) instead of what they would ideally want to measure. Gotta back them up and get them to science before stats. Hard.

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Richard McElreath 🦔

3 years

I hope everyone is having a relaxing holiday season. I am still making my gift to you, a bunch of new lectures for January. This is a lot of work! Teaching continues to be the hardest and most impactful part of my job. Below: Drawing the Bayesian owl.

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