Everyone has been sharing the incredible satellite footage of ongoing
#volcano
eruption in Tonga, but wanted to share larger scale view. You can still see the shockwave traveling out rapidly to the east (though unclear if its now sfc based or aloft).
Jaw dropping! ๐๐ฐ
I have a big announcement. Today is my 1st day at the National Hurricane Center (
@NWSNHC
) as a new member of the Hurricane Specialist Unit!
This is my dream job, & I am humbled to work for
@NOAA
/
@NWS
helping forecast to protect life & property. So grateful for this opportunity๐
Feast your eyes on this full day 1-min resolution GOES-16 visible animation of
#Hurricane
#Dorian
as it rapidly intensified from a Category 2 (90kt) to Category 4 (120kt) hurricane today.
Incredible "stadium effect" with the
#eyewall
at the end of the animation. So mesmerizing.
Here is a full-day loop of
#Hurricane
#Florence
from the
#GOES16
mesoscale sector over the
#TC
.
No matter how many times you see it, it's still mesmerizing to watch the
#eye
clear out & watch the rapid motion of mesovortices within the eye.
Certainly one of the largest & strongest west coast cyclones I can recall! For its location (20-40N/120-140W) it set the new minimum sea-level pressure (942.5 hPa w/ 10 kt winds).
Its huge wind/rain footprint affecting the NPAC from British Columbia to California.
#BCStorm
#CAwx
Hurricane
#Sam
has put on a show the last 24 hours intensifying from a Category 1 to Category 4 Hurricane.
Thought it would be nice to share what that 24-h evolution looks like on 1-min res GOES-16 water vapor.
Wait until the end as the ๐ fully clears out. Incredible.
Want to take a moment to compare last 2 eruptions of Tonga
#Volcano
. Can infer ash plume hgt comparing Bt of IR/WV to near radiosonde profile.
1/13 eruption got to ~15-20 km aloft.
1/15 eruption (today) possibly >30 km! Deep Stratospheric injection likely given sat signature.
Holy moly, this is one of the more incredible lightning plots I've ever seen.
The spatial ring that forms after the initial plume eruption is something I've never seen before.
Incredible imagery tonight coming from the
#Tonga
#Volvano
eruption. ๐
Let's talk
#Fiona
's upcoming Extratropical Transition.
Given current intensity of Fiona & strength of the upcoming upper-level trough dropping in, this could be a *very dynamic* warm-seclusion ET, similar to Teddy in 2020.
Unfortunately this may occur near Canadian provinces.
This is the most ridiculous radar loop I've seen yet. Within the same tornado warned polygon there appear to be two low CC/ high REFL debris balls that rotated around each other & merged between Springfield & Livingston, SC.
Possible merger of two large tornados? Unreal.
#SCwx
Excited to share that as of today, I'm a NOAA/NWS employee!
This month I join the Model Evaluation Group at
@NWSEMC
to help build new tools & products in model verification of existing & future upgrades!
A bit crazy changing jobs mid-pandemic, but happy to join the
@NWS
team!๐
I'll say it time & time again. Numerical weather prediction enabling the ability to make reasonably accurate weather predictions 3-5 days out might be one of the biggest achievements in science over the last 50 years.
Cases like
#Dorian
show you the value of NWP guidance.
Incredible to think there is a category 5 hurricane less than 200 miles east of me, and the threat from
#Dorian
is judged to be low enough that thereโs no warning in place for
#Miami
. We live in amazing scientific times!
Been a busy last two weeks forecasting Hurricanes
#Lisa
,
#Martin
, &
#Nicole
, but my most important forecast verified this week in Seattle. โ๏ธ
@ajda_savarin
, my smarter & kinder counterpart, I have a lifetime to love you & learn from you.
โค๏ธ๐
#shesaidYes
!
It's been a long 10+ day odyssey since the MCV that ultimately spawned
#Barry
formed in Missouri.
Here is a long wv loop, with Barry's track overaid in 24h snapshots. Ten days later, the remnants of Barry are nearly back where it started & interacting with a mid-latitude trough.
Just want to say how appreciative we are at NHC of
@NOAA_HurrHunter
&
@53rdWRS
for tremendous efforts they provide to get us critical data.
Their morning flights in extreme turbulence provided necessary data making
#Ian
a 135 kt Cat 4 hurricane on the 11z special advisory today.
When I say this was the roughest flight of my career so far, I mean it. I have never seen the bunks come out like that. There was coffee everywhere. I have never felt such lateral motion.
Aboard Kermit (
#NOAA42
) this morning into Hurricane
#Ian
. Please stay safe out there.
Plenty of media talking
#Hurricane
#Dora
influence on
#MauiFires
, so worth a deep dive ๐งต quantifying overall TC impact by removing vortex. ๐
Result โก๏ธ Dora played a *very* minor role, slightly enhancing low-level flow over Maui at fire initiation time.
A full day GOES-16 water vapor loop shows the evolution of
#Fiona
completing a phase with a strong upper-level trough dropping out of Canada.
The hurricane's extratropical transition is complete marked by upper-level PV wrapping cyclonically around its core.
Remarkable event.
Tonight I had the opportunity starting advisories on
#Theta
breaking 2005's record for # of named storms in a NATL Hurricane Season. It was also the 1st storm I've started advisories on since starting at NHC last month.
Thanks
@DBrownie23
for letting me be a tiny part of history
One more animation, of 1-minute 500m visible imagery of
#Ida
as it begins making landfall just south of Grand Isle, LA.
The
#eye
cleared out enough that you can see the low-level flow of the eye rapidly spinning as the TC barrels its way to shore.
Zoomed in 30-second res visible view w/ lightning of
#Dorian
has it makes landfall in
#GreatAbaco
islands in the
#Bahamas
.
I'm speechless. This tops what we saw with
#Michael
last year.
Hard to not be extremely concerned for Acapulco, Mexico & adjacent coastal areas as
#Hurricane
#Otis
rapidly intensified into a 145 mph Category 4 hurricane this evening.
This area does not have experience with such an intense hurricane before. A very dangerous situation.
Really just fascinating dynamics with
#Nicholas
we have been able to watch via KBRO radar today.
First there was the center reformation last night. Now, two distinct vorticity maxima are rotating about a common axis.
Net result: Nicholas is reorganizing as it pivots NNE.
#TXwx
Here is the sequel to my steering flow animated explanations. I'm covering 2 periods.
1st period is when
#Dorian
is expected to stall.
3 Features Cancel out:
1) Ridge over the NATL
2) Ridge over the Midwest
3) Trough that creates a weakness between the two ridges.
Synoptic setup ๐งต of high-profile rainfall event for the SW US in association with
#Hurricane
#Hilary
.
Offshore upper-level trough helps steer Hilary towards California, but will also provide forcing for ascent leading to heavy rains beginning well before the TC arrives.
#CAwx
1) Let's reason out why the
#GFS
tracks
#Florence
NE of the
#ECWMF
even now 3 days till verification? Look at the upper-level cirrus canopy b/c cloud-radiative feedback is important.
The
#GFS
has a thicker & more expansive cirrus plume NW of
#Florence
. What is its significance?
It has been quite something watching
#Hurricane
#Laura
traverse the Gulf of Mexico the last 54h from
#Cuba
to
#Louisiana
.
In that time, winds dramatically increased from 55 kt-->130 kt & the satellite presentation went from ragged due to N shear into a textbook major hurricane.
Earlier the KDMX radar N of
#DesMoines
found some of the highest velocity data I have ever seen in a
#Derecho
.
These values were higher than any velocity data seen w/
#Isaias
last week. A very damaging & dangerous wind storm moving through Iowa.
#IAwx
Everyone sharing pressure traces around world, so figured I'd check my PWS in Miami to see if there was an acoustic wave signature from the
#TongaVolcano
eruption.
Sure enough there is a 2-3 hPa spike at 930 AM EDT, matching when wave should have been propagating over.
Amazing!
Here is today's incredible full day 1-min GOES-16 animation of
#Hurricane
#Dorian
. Its structure has remained remarkably consistent today with no signs of an eyewall replacement cycle imminent.
The sea surface temperature cooling footprint left behind by
#Franklin
&
#Idalia
is one of the more impressive I've seen. Widespread sub 26 C & a chunk taken out of the record +SSTAs in west part of the NATL basin.
Something to watch if additional TCs traverse this region soon.
For last 3โฃ days, we were fortunate to have both GOES-16 meso sectors centered on
#Hurricane
#Ian
for 30 sec data for both landfalls in Cuba & Florida.
Here is yesterday's full day visible loop. Amazing how quickly eye cleared coming off Cuba & then clouded over as an ERC begin.
Concerning short term trends with
#Dorian
tonight. The storm for the last 4 recon fixes has been consistently moving south of due west.
This was suggested as a possible solution by a few members in the ECMWF ensemble guidance the last few days & it is verifying.
There was an impressive left moving cell that produced some severe hail in Kendall & South Miami at around 650pm.
From apartment rooftop in Doral there was some modest rotation as cell passed to my SE. Fizzling out now, but made for an ominous view.
#FLwx
@NWSMiami
For posterity, here is a 24-h+ loop of
#Ida
making landfall in Louisiana. You can see the attempt of an ERC right before landfall & very slow decay moving over the marshes of SE LA. The eye also remained distinct up until moving poleward of
#NewOrleans
. A devastating storm.
It's been a long journey for
#Hurricane
#Sam
, maintaining major hurricane intensity over the past week!
Its conclusion as a TC will likely be highly dynamic undergoing "warm seclusion" type extratropical transition resulting in a substantial wind field expansion. Watch below๐
Got lucky again on my run again this evening & witnessed a fantastic double rainbow going across the sky over Monterey Bay.
The atmosphere is providing a wonderful tribute for Paul Vasquez aka
#DoubleRainbowGuy
๐
Still in absolute awe looking at tonight's water vapor imagery over the Southern US.
In the last hour, Amarillo, TX reported thunder
#snow
w/ a TROWAL N of the cutoff cyclone. Meanwhile,
#Hurricane
#Zeta
remains impressive w/ >100-mph gusts still being observed on the MS coast.
This is up there with one of the more impressive reflectivity signatures from a WSR-88D before. Incredible signature in SE
#Wyoming
of what is likely a very large rain wrapped
#tornado
.
Up there with some of the worst storm surge footage Iโve ever seen. My heart hurts for all the people that have been affected by
#Ian
so far. ๐๐
Absolutely heartbreaking footage captured by our surge probe of catastrophic storm surge washing away homes. I have never seen anything like this. We have now left the area as hoards of emergency crew have arrived.
#HurricaneIan
FULL VIDEO -
At long last,
#Philippe
(the storm, not the forecaster) completed its life as a tropical cyclone today, as it merged w/ a developing non-tropical low.
It spent 14 days as a tropical storm -- the longest-lasting continuous NATL TC to never intensify to hurricane intensity.
Here is a 2-day radar animation of
#Dorian
from KAMX (1000 UTC 1 Sep - 0332UTC 3 Sep).
Watch the eye come into view, undergo an ERC over
#GrandBahama
island & then remain stationary for the rest of the day as it slowly degrades & broadens from ocean upwelling / land interaction.
Okay, let's do a steering diagnosis of
#Hurricane
#Dorian
! This is Part 1, focused on its 1st bend west & slowdown in motion.
Key Features:
1) Deep-layer ridge to the N
2) Small cutoff low to the SW
3) PV streamer off to the NE
4) Ridge produced by Dorian's own outflow to the SE
Really potent setup on tap this weekend for entire Eastern US.
The potent upper-level low thats been giving SoCal unsettled weather will finally ejects east & phase w/ another incoming northern stream trough.
End result: a large baroclinic cyclone that deepens to <970-hPa!
Sharing this super long KBUF radar loop from 23 to 26 December 2022.
Nearly 72 hours of continuous lake effect snow & many of those hours under Blizzard conditions & near zero visibility.
A historic Buffalo Christmas Storm that many won't soon forget. โ๏ธ๐ฌ
#NYwx
With talk of a record breaking low forming in the Great Plains this week, I thought I'd make a animation illustrating the evolution.
In short: Two +PV anomalies phase in the Rockies, initiating sfc cyclogenesis in the lee. Min pressure in low 970's may rival records in the area.
The lifespan of
#Hurricane
#Henri
was certainly a bit out of the ordinary.
From non-tropical origins, to looping around Bermuda, successfully battling shear, & finally hooking back to landfall in the NE US, it had quite an odyssey for a TC spending life in the subtropics.๐
Extratropical Transition (
#ET
) comes in many shapes & sizes.
#Hurricane
#Sam
's ET-merger with a mid-latitude cyclone is certainly on the larger size of the spectrum.
The resulting circulation stretches more than 25 degrees of longitude over the North Atlantic! Watch below ๐
This is a hall of fame tropical weather outlook map right here. I've never seen anything like this!
#Florence
,
#Helene
,
#Issac
,
#95L
,
#96L
, & lets just throw in another 20% baroclinicity induced system for the heck of it.
Yes its peak season, but this is getting ridiculous.
Somebody earlier was mentioning similarities between
#Hortense
(1996) &
#Fiona
today.
Well, the IR satellite imagery unfortunately bears this out. A near carbon copy of each other on IR when their centers were just W of
#PuertoRico
.
Both produced devastating flooding.๐จ
Watching the last 72h water vapor animation of
#Epsilon
from genesis to major hurricane is mesmerizing.
Starting on 00z 20 Oct, deep convection focused near the center & helped build an anticyclonic cocoon of moisture; shielding it from very dry air rotating around cyclonically.
An unusually long-lived subtropical cyclone (
#Medicane
) traversed the Mediterranean Sea in 9 days (23 Oct-2 Nov), affecting Tunisia, Malta, Sicily, Libya, & finally Turkey in its wandering route E across the basin.
Here is its entire lifecycle annotated. Imagery via
@zoom_earth
This is the first I've seen
#SAR
instruments using satellite borne radar to see flooded areas though clouds.
This is a sobering view of
#GrandBahamas
earlier today.
#Dorian
's storm surge is evident over the north side.
More than 50% of the land in this photo is underwater.
#HurricaneDorian
has affected Bahamas heavily on Monday, with vast areas hit with
#flooding
, including the Grand Bahama International Airport, Freeport. ICEYE
#SAR
satellite image from 11:44AM local time. Please, stay safe! (Y: coastline. W: roads. Source: OpenStreetMap.)
Here is an annotated 48-h wv animation of the
#bombcyclone
.
The rapid deepening & sheer size of this cyclone was supported by the complete phasing of two troughs on the subtropical & polar jet stream over the Rockies.
An incredible system well forecasted 5 days in advance!
Zooming out on the western hemisphere, there are 5 systems being monitored by the National Hurricane Center right now (
#Juliette
,
#Dorian
,
#91L
,
#92L
, &
#93L
)! Certainly working overtime this
#LaborDay
!
Watch this mesmerizing 21-h water vapor loop of
#Hurricane
#Felicia
developing annular characteristics.
Thanks in part to Felicia's annular structure under light easterly shear, the TC has been resilient, & in fact the CDO has cooled again during the diurnal max.
Tiny mighty ๐ฉ
This morning's 0524 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass of
#Larry
is a work of art.
Rare to see such symmetric structure from such a large single eye & eyewall w/ little outer banding.
Big & beautiful (and far away from land ๐)
Zooming in, the structure of
#Michael
's
#eyewall
has become very impressive. A obvious wavenumber 5 pattern has developed with the eyewall, with these points representing mesovortices rotating cyclonically around. These features can locally enhance winds in the eyewall.
Wanted to rewind to see key synoptic elements responsible for the Central US cold air outbreak.
Ridge building over Alaska & SE Canada dislodged a TPV complex into S Canada, where it persisted more than a week as the air mass grew colder before it was diverted S the Central US.
Here is a longer KGRB radar animation of the last night's MCS that rolled through Wisconsin. It is still fascinating to watch how as the supercell merges with the main line, with the vorticity growing upscale into a large MCV by the time the line gets to Lake Michigan.
Unfortunately the eyewall of Category 5
#Hurricane
#Otis
is nearing landfall & still appears likely to directly impact
#Acapulco
,
#Mexico
. Estimated winds 165 mph as of 05 UTC.
A Category 5 hurricane has never made landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico before.
12 AM Update: Eyewall of Category 5 Hurricane
#Otis
moving ashore near Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum winds are estimated to be 165 mph. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall within the next few hours
Hard to not be concerned for
#Nicaragua
tonight with
#Iota
becoming better organized over the warm Caribbean waters. Forecasted to become a major hurricane tomorrow & unfortunately impact nearly the same communities devastated by
#Eta
less than two weeks ago. ๐
I am pleased to announce my
#PhD
#dissertation
has been successfully defended!๐จ๐ปโ๐I couldnโt get the livestream going but did get a video to edit later. As for now itโs time to celebrate ๐
Well that escalated quickly. Surrounded by near -90C cloud tops,ย
#Rai
is clearing out a pinhole eye & the latest JTWC forecast now takes the system to Cat 5 intensity.
Unfortunately happening at the worst time possible with impact in the
#Philippines
in ~12 h.
The RI of
#Hurricane
#Delta
has been stunning to watch this morning. However, worth zooming out & witnessing one of the more unusual vortex interactions playing out today.
While PTC
#Gamma
is much weaker, its similar in size to
#Delta
. Their combined circulation is large!
This is quite the radar animation for S Florida & thr Florida Keys right now.
Multiple low topped supercells merging into a formative MCV north of Marathon Key. Vorticity galore. ๐
#FLwx
Quick radar breakdown of how
#Hurricane
#Idalia
's core evolved in the hours before landfall in the Florida Big Bend region.
As several mentioned, an eyewall replacement cycle appeared to begin just before landfall. There were some telltale signs on radar beforehand. ๐
What a remarkable evolution seen offshore of North Carolina from the KMRX radar this afternoon.
The coastal cyclone rapidly intensified as supercellular convection provided incipient vorticity that grew upscale into the synoptic cyclone. Gale force + winds likely offshore.
#NCwx
Put together a 48-h WV loop over
#Larry
since becoming a major
#hurricane
. You can see the obvious growth in size over time as the inner-core has gone through several eyewall replacement cycles. ๐๏ธโป๏ธ
Also note the subtle SW shear maintaining a touch of outflow asymmetry as well.
Hurricane
#Laura
&
#Delta
's eyewalls in the same exact location just 6 weeks apart. Not my favorite instance of weather
#DejaVu
. ๐
My heart goes out to all the folks in
#Louisiana
, especially
#LakeCharles
dealing with yet another impactful storm.
The shockwave from the
#Tonga
#Volcano
(Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haโapai) eruption has now reached New Zealand. Note the rapid rise and fall from the pressure trace at the end of the plot.
We havenโt seen a volcano eruption of this intensity in a long time.
In addition to impressive satellite imagery seen with now Major
#Hurricane
#Eta
, there is also an inner core lightning burst that's encircling the eyewall on GLM.
The lightning appears in the eye, because the eyewall is sloped inward & likely is smaller than satellite estimates.
Yet another incredible example of inner core lightning with a very powerful hurricane, this time being featured on the latest category 5 hurricane and on record.
#Iota
This has unfortunately quickly become a dangerous hurricane over the past 24 hours.
Hurricane Warnings up for Islas Marias & Mainland Mexico as Cat 4
#Orlene
approaches.
The structure of
#Cristobal
remains very broad, with the lack of an inner wind core where convection can focus.
What it lacks in core structure it makes up in sheer size, with its circulation spanning the entire Gulf of Mexico!
Even before the core of
#Henri
nears the coast, there has been major flooding in New York City as seen on radar (via
@NissenbaumMark
).
PRE-like event driven by tropical moisture transport around Henri lifted at coast by favorable jet dynamics near a negatively tilted trough.
Another indication that
#Hurricane
#Dorian
is intensifying today is the marked increase in lightning within the eyewall. The last few frames shows a circular ring of lightning rotating around the storm, indicating intense convection.
Simply mesmerizing to watch a full day 1-min GOES-16 visible animation of Major
#Hurricane
#Larry
. The eye especially is spectacular w/ obvious mesovortices rotating around along its outer edges. ๐
Yesterday between 700-730pm, I captured this amazing timelapse over Monterey of Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves in the low-level clouds.
These waves are caused by vertical shear between the fast winds in the clouds vs. slower winds above.
@CityofMonterey
@NWSBayArea
@ksbw
1) Let's talk about Invest
#92L
& where it may ultimately go. As usual, there are different features influencing the motion of the storm.
Beginning with a GFS animation showing the 3 features likely to impact 92L track; The Rockies ridge appears to have the largest impact.
Sustained winds of 149 MPH gusting to 172 MPH as
#Ida
was making landfall. This is an incredible observation if verified.
It is incredibly rare for a surface in-situ platform to record winds that essentially match the maximum sustained winds of a Category 4 hurricane.
In addition to its recent upgrade to a
#Category5
hurricane,
#Dorian
's structure on a recent ASMR2 microwave pass is jaw dropping. A very symmetrical thick eyewall is seen on the 85GHz channel with still no sign of a secondary eyewall.
Watching
#Larry
undergo extratropical transition really shows you how much a large TC can perturb the downstream waveguide.
In its place is a large SW-to-NE orientated PV streamer taking up a large portion of the subtropical Atlantic.
A temporary respite in TC activity.
The mesovort recon was making center fixes on
#Barry
earlier has dropped back south into the convection.
Sometimes, this convective coupling helps the mesovort grow upscale & realign the llvl vortex w/ the mid-level center. Will be watching the next 3-6hrs to see if this occurs.
Well this is interesting. There appears to be a convective mesovortex that has organizing over Lake Erie this morning, complete with banding features.
Water temps are well above normal on the lake and are likely supporting sustained deep convection.
There are *7* features on the NATL tropical weather outlook from
@NHC_Atlantic
this morning. I am pretty sure that is a record.
Even for peak season this is getting ridiculous. ๐ฅด
Thanks to ERA-5 reanalysis, we can take a detailed look back at this historic event.โ๏ธ
Arctic front pushed through early on 1-19-77, but most of the
#snow
in extreme S Florida was generated behind via ocean effect precip.
Simulated 850 hPa T down to -4C in
#Miami
is nuts!
#FLwx
On this day in 1977, snow fell in
#SoFla
for the first time in recorded history, from West Palm Beach to Homestead, and even across the Gulf Stream on Grand Bahama Island! If you saw it, please share your story with us!
On my flight from Seattle to San Jose, I traveled through the
#AtmosphericRiver
landfalling over Oregon & California. Halfway through, there was a sharp edge to the high-level cloud deck, which was also easily seen via
#GOES17
.
Always fun to match flight photos w/ sat imagery ๐
1) Lets talk
#90L
, the 1st invest of the NATL season. A unique aspect of this system is its broad circulation & ample moisture, features of its monsoonal origin; resembling a Central American Gyre (
#CAG
) in the
#GoM
this week. In this thread, I want to highlight key CAG aspects.
Here is a full day GOES-17 geocolor loop centered near the
#CreekFire
.
Probably the
#PyroCb
event of the year in
#California
. PyroCb initiated around 1900 UTC w/ lightning & extreme fire behavior at 2100 UTC. Extent of the fire shows up in black at end of loop.
#CAfire
#CAwx
Really was fascinating watching the radar this morning as Tropical Storm
#Bertha
formed before our eyes.
Check out the two "vortical hot towers" (fancy name for supercells) merging between 900-1100 UTC & likely aiding the formation of tightly curved bands leading to TC genesis.