Russia, Ukraine and other places in the 'former East'. Global Studies Professor. Безродный космополит и "бодрый постколониалист". My opinions, not my employer's
I made this available as pre-print on my ResearchGate as so many people were asking for it. Like everything else a version of it also available via my blog pages
#RussiaUkraineWar
#politicalethnography
Don't want to do a long thread but I said I'd update with the 'everyman' view from the averagely informed Russian. So far it can be summarised as everything we see on Twitter about conflict in Ukraine is transformed into a kind of Alice thru the Looking Glass world for Russians.
Remember, all Russians support the war and have deep-seated genocidal tendencies. But some people volunteered for the SS because they liked the uniform and the low-slung holster look.
OPINION: A lie can make it halfway around the world before the truth has even got its boots on.
And the ongoing turmoil over Canada’s parliament recognizing former SS trooper Yaroslav Hunka highlights one of the most important reasons why.
“Every citizen is responsible for the actions of their state, and citizens of Russia are no exception. Therefore, we do not give asylum to Russian men who flee their country. They should oppose the war.”
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas
Been talking to families of conscriptable men all day. Unfortunately this is Feb22 all over again. Massive denial and cognitive dissonance and little media coverage of anything beyond the abstract phrase "partial mobilization". That first word seems to key to magical thinking.
Sanctioned Russian TV host with Musk at World Cup Final. Nailya Asker-zade is on sanctions list and subject to Navalny report on sources of her enormous wealth.
1. Four moments of consolidation. From chats the last days. Pensioner and anti-Putinist, living 800km from Moscow: "I was against it at first, but now I see there can be no half-measures. We need to go to Lvov."
And then he ends: 'What is the opinion of people outside of Russia? On what is happening now? Surely there is no one who thinks that Russia is doing a good deed? See you in ten years, if God wills it. It's tragicomic [И смех и грех]' /ends
My 'thinking' friend continues [who incidentally is unemployed mechanic without higher ed]: 'It's not TV, it's inertial thinking and low capacity for critical reasoning. And absence of alt sources of info. If the economy wasn't so bad people would have a chance to 'look up''
Got a message that Greg Yudin who was beaten unconscious and detained last night in Moscow is out of hospital. Greg is a sociologist and public intellectual in Moscow.
1. A response from
#workingclass
Russia: "Europe does not want to have anything in common in Russia except money. Never did. That's why it can only 'speak to us' with the language of sanctions. They won't hurt Putin and his cronies. What's the point?
With someone I'm closer to: 'Why are you awake?' 'I can't sleep - watching the war. Completely f'up. I'm watching the tele - explosions, wounded, tanks.' I respond: 'Kiev is being hit by rockets'. No answer for last 2 days to that message.
I paused and thought long and hard before continuing and choosing my words carefully: 'there are a lot of conscripts in Ukraine, it seems.' She: 'Yes, I heard that. Poor Ukrainian mothers.' I.e. she interpreted it 'through the looking glass'.
My 'conscious' friend in his 30s: "we'll this is f**ed up. What does the overseas say? Putinists don't care -they'll burn the world to get their way... everyone thinks we are driving the Nazis out of Ukraine! Even a friend here showed his colours! He seemed ok before."
At what point does hubristic military adventurism to serve domestic politics turn into a war that cannot be ended because to admit defeat would precipitate precisely those domestic changes you were trying to avoid?
That means, for example: I gingerly tested the waters with a friend c.35 years, whose sister has a kid who's 18. I said 'everything ok? I hope you're keeping Dima away from the enlistment office'. Her answer 'What?'
Older bloke: 'mood is good. A quick jaunt to Kiev and back in time for tea. Without too many casualties. symmetrical sanctions - you've got more to lose. Jobs a good-un'. President looking firm, saying the right thing.' [this is a 'putin-sceptic']
@rochowanski
you're welcome. I am very sad right now. But I end on the positive note: a guy with no world experience and no 'smart' education who can see better than most of us. The point is to focus on this. The others will 'learn', I hope, from defeat.
Woman in 50s: 'Russia has never invaded anyone, we don't have taking territory in our military doctrine. Did you see 'wag the dog'? You could learn a lot about what's happening in the US with Biden's unpopularity'
Lol to 'colleagues' taking Ukraine flags out of their bios. How predictable. You really only gave a fuck when it was conducive to advancement and clout.
I live in a bubble where people say privately 'of course Snyder is mostly wrong about Russia, but the the agro of saying so is not worth it and also I need a job in the US'.
We all live in our intellectual bubbles. I live in an intellectual bubble where Snyder’s views are basically hegemonic. Snyder lives in a bubble where what he says is taboo.
Once again. The biggest anglo war accounts are entirely dependent on opaque telegram channels which in turn are culled from small accounts which all have their own political axe to grind. E.g. framing Wagner advance as meeting army disarray is based on account with 1000 followers
New branding for Kazakhstan: “Kazakhstan. Welcoming Russians back to the World”
Seen today: 'trips to Kazakhstan! All inclusive: access to Netflix, YouTube. Dinner in McDonalds, World cinema premiers and shopping at Zara and H&M. Reserve now. Payment in Tenge.
Got my first report from colleague of an academic losing their job in Russia explicitly for refusing to write about 'Ukrainian fascists'. All I will say is a Urals university.
Pretty sad, but also indicative of many émigré intellectuals: focus on 'people like me', deny the complexity and vitality of lived experience of 'the rest', who are seen as dupes and nasties, not 'people like me'.
I am just deeply grateful to Gorbachev that, having launched perestroika in the USSR, he created opportunities for people like me to get the hell out and thus escape rotten imperialism, mandatory New Year s**tshows, Putin & the Kremlin clock, and the infamous Olivier salad.
Even earlier than I predicted: strikes due to machinery producers non-payment of wages as direct result of sanctions. Many more hot political potatoes incoming to Urals.
@an_oliinyk
Unfortunately the bloodthirsty are vocal, that's true. But let's not pretend that's representative of anything. The role of scholars is to explain the diversity of responses while not denying a neoimperialist constituency exists.
Another case of collective punishment and there will be many more: scholarship by Richard Pipes Laboratory at Polish Institute of Political Studies was just withdrawn from Russian passport holder despite person being actively anti-Putin/not living in Russia.
Lovely piece by Roman Abramov on Soviet computer programming from the 1950s onwards and its cultural representation. With a starring role for #лохматушки - The maths girls with big hair.
Please don't give money to Western grifter-reporters in Ukraine. I understand the desire to 'do' something, but these people are only out for themselves and you're feeding their egomania. Send your money to a refugee charity (why weren't you before?).
Lots of people asking if Russians *really* believe the state’s propaganda. Look at your bonkers anti-vax uncle in 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 or 🇨🇦, and ask the same question. Then realize that they have access to high quality, fact checked independent media. You’ve answered the question.
Are you sure Leonid V? Once more we have Schrödinger's war paradox. Simultaneously a limited and distant special operation AND an existential world war to destroy Russian civilization. No one willingly lifts the lid of the box to look inside so Russians are able to believe both.
Starting from today, in 1⃣6⃣ minutes to be precise,
#Estonia
🇪🇪 will deny entry to all Russian registered vehicles.
They are not welcome here to enjoy privileges freedom has to offer until
#Ukraine
🇺🇦 has achieved victory.
2. Woman pensioner. formerly pro-democracy, anti-USSR, relatives were repressed in 30s: "I used to get mad at Putin but now my only hopes are on him, he explained about everything. He's 70-odd and such a burden on him. And it's good they tighten the laws during conflict"
Because I was asked a lot about Navalny today, I did a write up. Just because you admire personal bravery and tenacity, doesn't mean you can't see the fundamental flaws.
Having to explain to a Russian professor in Russia (about the Dozhd' skandal) that said professor doesn't have to use phrase 'our army', and that I would never say 'our army' about British or NATO troops. His incredulous response: 'Are you some kind of communist?' 😍😍😍
3. 30s factory worker: "I am for peace and against a lot of what Putin did in the last 15 years at home, but denazification is a worthy cause. If I wasn't needed here, I would go to help."
Just like under Stalin, high levels of permissible violence against perceived enemies of the people didn't just suddenly appear but once there's no repercussions and the category of enemies expands the lawlessness exponential increases.
The guy was raped with a dumbbell in Moscow police. For poetry. During the interrogation. Later his friend, a young woman was forced to watch the video.
4. Security services mid-rank. 40, to relative: "You're "za", aren't you? No?! Things are crystal clear. These are our people and we must help them. I've sent my papers in to go to fight."
Can this really be true, US colleagues? "One key narrative passed on from imperial-era historians by emigres, and still widely taught in the United States today, is that Russia is the direct and sole successor to Kievan Rus"
between 40,000 and 55,000 Russian men under the age of 50 died fighting in Ukraine by May 27, 2023. This is why people should listen to demographers and not random sources. (looking at all the account stenographing the Ukr MoD)
Case in point. The evangelical wing of NAFOism is more interested in moral hygiene than practical efforts that help Ukraine. They are obsessed with primordialism and collective punishment. Surely the best help for Ukraine is to reduce the pool of soldiers. Full Stop.
@BabelFranz
@pevchikh
That's a tricky question - are they fleeing because they are afraid of dying in a trench somewhere in Ukraine, or because they oppose Putin and the war?
Partial =частичная : 'of a part'. Some distant/vague part. People imagine a huge army and reserve that is just lying around for the govt to mobilize. The reality is that in my village they already handed papers to the only man in 20s today. The local priest told me.
@WendtWeiss
@ChrisO_wiki
@mironov_fm
@itskhoki
Russia is a very racist society. But conscription is mainly a function of existing inequalities and these include ethnic, economic, social capital, geography and education. Oh, and luck and how well informed a person is.
"Dostoyevsky, widely praised in the West...Western universities and research centres focusing on Russian cultural studies often end up in a way glorifying the Russian empire". 🙃😒 Have any of these people ever been in a litcrit or area studies classroom?
All you need to know about
#russian
culture 👇
“Dostoyevsky, widely praised in the West, was an imperial chauvinist who called for the annexation of Istanbul & denied the existence of other Slavic peoples, in some ways setting the stage for “Russky Mir”
Sick of seeing supposedly smart people accuse Ukraine of not wanting to negotiate when the position of Putin is for them to give up so much on rightbank Dnipro. Even if you accept the logic of 'leftbank' as a concession worth making (I don't).
Putin’s conditions show what a hardline position Russia would take at any peace talks. They include Ukraine giving up two major cities: Kherson, which Russia withdrew from in the fall of 2022, and Zaporizhzhia, under Ukrainian control throughout the war.
Getting lots of messages from my non Moscow friends that they don't know what I'm talking about when I mention fighting round Kiev. A lot of intentional avoidance of non controlled news by ordinary Russian folk. I'll try to do a write up later. It's very difficult to communicate.
All his relatives consume only mainstream media. They still don't see it as anything other than heroic and limited action against evil. Minimal risks. Big benefits. 'we're winning' his mom told me. 'it's not long to wait now. We have the energy weapon. Look at Italy!'
A man in his 60s. 'Italy like in WWI will realise they're on the wrong side!' Everyone I speak to raises the wonder-weapon topic: 'is it true your governments will fall because of lack of our gas?' I very calmly say 'No, there is a high degree of consensus on supporting Ukraine'.
Kadyrov's deteriorating condition has reportedly prompted the Kremlin to start working on a succession plan to maintain stability in the North Caucasus republic, Novaya Gazeta Europa reported, citing anonymous sources.
When you work for a pro-democracy outfit whose purpose is to 'empower informed people' that burns six million Euro a year of public money, but you're really up for depriving actual scholars of their livelihood.
Yes, there will be some poor PhD candidate that will get stuck not being able to return to Sciences Po for the next semester because their academic exemption wasn't recognised, but that's a price I am willing to pay.
Volodymyr and I disagree about many things. I think his 'mistake' was to mention Ukraine was quite an important part of the Soviet Union. Rookie error! Oh, and calling out the anglo-grant-feeding class.
The essay in
@NewLeftReview
attracted far more attention than I expected. Especially grateful to those Ukrainian, other EE scholars, and regional experts, who, even if strongly disagree with me politically, saw that I addressed some real issues. Response to some criticism below
Everyone seems to be assuming that criminalizing draft evasion and mobilization will prevent young Russians, who show no enthusiasm in volunteering, massively avoiding the draft nonetheless. It's called infrapolitics.
On the contrary a very 'encouraging' read. Gudkov of course is not to be trusted especially concerning interpretations. Astonishing numbers admitting moral responsibility but the devil is in the way Levada curated results.
‘It is disappointing’: Lev Gudkov, head of Levada Centre, on Russian society’s enduring pro-war consensus, the ritualisation of the war, & many Russians’ lack of compassion for Ukrainian victims. Stark results, bracing analysis, depressing read
Funny (to me) that there's a bazillion books about Putin and elite politics and only one decent recent book that examines the the political-economic relationship that is illustrated here.
If 300k do get mobilized (which is a tall order) then maybe the war becomes more real. Whether this is good or bad is hard to say. Thought for another time: 'instead of writing off Russian public we desperately need efforts to open channels of quality alternative info. /Ends
From Gorbachev to Putin: a few short decades from "our common European home" to "Gayropa". From a vision of nuclear disarmament to contemplating tactical nuke strikes in Ukraine.
Why we shouldn't start paying attention to biased and anecdotal portraits of the war. My response to a poorly evidenced and argued article that many of my esteemed colleagues are praising.
You, an FSB whisperer: " the CIA are really on top of their game."
Me, a НИИ dude: "someone stole or sold the 🔥 extinguishers and then Masha left the iron on she keeps at work for her lab coat."
'Why aren't those Russians protesting?' That's right, because the bastions of democracy financially benefit from dealing with the regime oppressing them.
So not only did the husband of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas maintain business interests in Russia after the war, but those interests were also connected with a company that supplies Russian and Belarusian law enforcement agencies with tear gas.
My source in Rostov and another in Voronezh and my third source in Moscow and a fourth source on the border with Estonia are all telling me things, but because I'm not a grifter I'm going to parse them and think about them before I share them here. There's also ethics.
Obviously my point is that these people want collective responsibility and guilt only when it suits them. Anyways it's even more egregious when the author argues it's mainly pro-Russians who are decrying the Canadian debacle.
Germans like to think they're antimilitarist society, but they're not. They export more lethal arms than the UK and have done for many years. 5% of global arms sales made by German. Strip out the US/Russia and you'd have a 20% market share of G20 arms sales.
Friendly reminder to everyone that German politicians are elected by a strongly pacifist society which keeps worrying that sending weapons to a war is the start of militarisation -> nationalism -> NSDAP pipeline. Also, Berlin isn't Germany.
He was a veteran conscript sapper. I don't have info on his views but like many he seems to be resigned to obeying orders. It would be cowardly and risk big loss of social status to somehow draft dodge. There's not even a 'my country right or wrong'. Media consumption still key:
Twitter analysis in a nutshell (S*shko again). Voronezh is at least 8 hours drive from Moscow. And that's without aviation bombing your ass.
Please, I beg you, stop RTing the race-car driver, 7000km and an 'anonymous FSB source', away from what's happening.
Dan Kovalik. Law prof at Pittsburgh (though can't find stuff on their pages after 2017). Doesn't seem as interested in tweeting about his gig in occupied Ukrainian territory as he does about Gaza and Fetterman.
An unnamed American "election monitor" tells Russian state media that Kherson "does not feel like an occupied region" and that people there "seem happy"
Like I wrote last few days: this is the only way I can break the spell, but it's only momentary. Even academic colleagues who in Feb though it utter folly and tragedy are hardening their views and also reaching for the magic thought: 'what if econ pain can divide our enemies?'
mil expert on Russian TV: 'people aren't good at fighting if they're not motivated'.
Twitter: 'Smart move to allow impression of dissent! 5-headed move! Coup-imminent! This is the next Chief of Staff! He's gonna fall out a window now for sure!'
Me: 🤦
Russian industry: new record shortage of personnel in 27 years of records. According to a survey of industrial enterprises starting Q3 2023, 42% of enterprises reported a shortage of workers. Source:
HSE ISSEK Center for Market Research
The long and the short: things move so slowly with total control of the public sphere. People not already informed are not as susceptible to the "sarafan radio" (rumour) as before because this is a society already frog-boiled dry.
Absolute desperation of these criminal actions is perhaps a glimmer of hope among the horror. If random terror rocketing is military's only response to politicians demanding action, then it just confirms that Ukraine is indeed winning at the front and there Russia has no answer.
2/3. Obviously, Russia’s polit, milit & media elites are major criminals, both terrorists (violence aimed at civilians for polit ends) & avowed genocidaires (announced war aim of destruction of a nation), even if formally designating them so b4-hand might complicate war’s end.
Backs away from "Ukrainians who kept their jobs in occupied territory are collaborators" twitter. Obviously led by tenured academics safely in the US the last 20yrs.
I think I've told this story before: I was on a plane in 2021 sitting next to extremely famous historian who proceeds to tap away at his manuscript, deftly copy-pasting passages from Wikipedia.
@DrRadchenko
Here’s an idea: offer refuge to any Russian who can provide proof of an act of vandalism of military utility. Say a visa to anyone with a selfie showing him blowing up a truck. Two visas for blowing up a train. Four for a bridge. Ten for a bridge while a train is on it.
I don't want to single out individuals, because, you know.
However, don't scholars have a responsibility to call out lobbyists masquerading as academic experts? Quick google of person forced to delete *that* tweet today reveals a CV full of holes and zero Russia expertise.
Gotta love the BBC. Interviewing as many retired US generals as they can, even though they are watching it all on the TV same as everyone else and have no fucking clue what's actually happening.
Mark mentions re-export of Russian oil via India to EU at the end of his article.
Here's the graph for Denmark, for example.
As the saying now goes 'I wonder what happened!'
The EU needs a coherent strategy on Russian sanctions
Apparently it’s ok to buy Indian-refined Russian crude, but potentially necessary to confiscate phones and toothpaste from Russian travellers and emigres.
Some grumbles from me in
@SpecCoffeeHouse
Margolis with her usual pitch: "Russians' psyche is 'inflected' and 'polluted'. They need to pay me $ to be rehabilitated for the European civilized world" is just classic C19th race science reloaded for the therapeutic age.
Выросшего в России человека нужно лечить, чтобы пустить в цивилизованный мир: блогер Екатерина Марголис развила свой тезис о «курсе дерашизации».
Впервые Марголис заявила () о намерении внедрения такого курса в октябре 2023 года на Антивоенной конференции
Budapest yesterday: students from zaporizhya and kharkiv arrive. government channel film crew stopping shooting indian medical students as they were 'not those they expected' and they said they will come for the next train
1. Short thread about a different kind of 'defensive consolidation' in Russia (see my latest blog for the first kind). We'll call this 'Playing at the 90s.'
Anglo war-twitter is an eco-system of 95% grifters enabled by the fact that anglo audience does not use telegram and does not understand Russian. And in many cases these accounts are not what they say they are.
Totally normal that the FT cites an anonymous Ukrainian polling organization to report on Russian public opinion rather than turning to people who can actually justify their methodology (of which there are many).
@FT
Broken Britain. Hosting a group of Ukrainian kids in the UK over Easter. We had to drop in to a hospital and one goes: 'this is like a field hospital near the front line. Why aren't there individual cubicles. It's just a temporary building right?'