Bauncey Chillups @PrefShares Twitter profile

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

one of the greatest breaks you will ever have the pleasure of watching a horse make. all heart

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Chipotle restaurants have completely gone downhill. Every one I’ve been in lately has been an absolute disaster. Starbucks and Home Depot both had periods where they slowed store growth in order to run a better store. Subway the best example of what happens when you don’t.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Rich Strike was an alternate up until Friday when Etheral Road got scratched. The horse was the longest shot at 80-1. Someone forgot to tell the horse…

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

Never really thought I’d go to b-school. Always just wanted to be an investor. However, was encouraged to apply by mentors who thought it’d be fun & help me grow my network as I try to learn more about businesses. I just found out I got accepted to HBS. Feeling thankful today.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

I rest my case.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Wife has been getting into Game of Thrones. Really loves it. She had a pretty tough day today. Wants to cap it off with an episode of GoT. We are on Season 3: Episode 9. “Red Wedding.” She just got mad at me for suggesting we watch it another night, and turned it on. I tried.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

What a load of crap.

AT&T boss retires with $274,000 a month for life

Randall Stephenson gets a golden goodbye

www.marketwatch.com

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

It’s always the investors who’ve compounded at 15% for 20 years who say their biggest mistakes are “errors of omission.” However, their high bar is almost always the reason they compounded at 15% a year…

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

The best investor of all time has been blindly optimistic about the future for his entire life. Pessimism is more nuanced than optimism and attracts many intellectuals. However, pessimism stems from an underappreciation of the incentives to work things out in our current system.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

the issue with DCFs for companies that don’t grow is that your excel spreadsheet assumes you get all of the cashflows whereas in reality the odds are very high that the company reinvests those cashflows in low IRR projects or makes bad acquisitions

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

What are the 5 13Fs that you open first? Mine = Altarock, Fundsmith, Third Point, TCI, and AKO

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

choose your fighter

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

8 months

@david_perell “Have you realized that most of your unhappiness in life is due to the fact that you are listening to yourself instead of talking to yourself? Take those thoughts that come to you the moment you wake up in the morning. You have not originated them, but they start talking to

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

We are going to look back and wonder how on earth people ever sold shares of $AMZN for 82 dollars.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

For the first time, long $BRK. I have a lot of ?s about the capital allocation, and am not enamored with some of the businesses... but I believe it will grow intrinsic value/share at high single digits and the discount vs. IV is too big. Back of the envelope valuation below...

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

I don't know who needs to hear this... But the work required to intelligently allocate capital into financials at this moment must have been done months and years ago. If you don't know financials, just stay away. You aren't going to learn them in 3 days. You'll be the patsy.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

5 years

The best investor I know is the worst financial modeler I know.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

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@PrefShares

3 years

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

What are some businesses that have consistently displayed disciplined capital allocation? Some that come to mind for me: $AMZN, $HD, $MCO, $SHW, $IAC, $TPL, $ORLY, $AZO, $CSU, $ROP, $ATVI, $KMX, $SPGI, $MA, $V

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

I’m going to repeat myself. The Metaverse already came and we called it World of Warcraft.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

opening up the $BRK cash flow statement this morning looking for those buybacks and equity investments

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

the hard pill for some people to swallow is that wealth is correlated with intelligence and diligence, but not perfectly so so people use it as a proxy for these things, then have a hard time processing when people they feel have objectively lower levels of both end up richer

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

What are the best investor letters/presentations you’ve ever read?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

I have met great investors. I have met investors who talk a lot about how they apply the lessons they learned from reading “Thinking Fast and Slow” to investing. There has been no overlap to date.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

[Thread] A lot of times people will ask me "What should I read?" to learn about fundamental investing, and I'll try to give them a shortcut answer. To be honest, there isn't a shortcut. Below I'm going to lay out what I would actually recommend someone read/do...

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

(3/3) “but don’t you think they’ll be able to adapt?” Analyst answered: “I do, but the valuation is too stretched.” Julian: “Don’t ever pitch me to short a good company based on valuation again.”

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

A bunch of friends who were pitching me YOLO names last 2 years talking about how much money they were making are now reaching out to ask about what books I read to learn about investing 😂

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

PUBLISH YOUR 10-Q AT THE SAME TIME AS YOUR QUARTERLY PRESS RELEASE

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

My hottest take right now might be that valuations matter.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

I take a public market approach to private equity.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

1 year

Most hedge funds, like investment banks and sports franchises, are simply wealth transfer mechanisms.

Marc Rubinstein

@MarcRuby

1 year

After 15 years as a public company, Sculptor Capital Mgmt (formerly Och-Ziff)—one of the only listed hedge funds—finally called time. The experiment failed. The stock came to the market at $320 and goes out at $11. Along the way, employees took out $4.3bn of comp.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

5 years

1st year managing other peoples' money is in the books. 2019 Net Return = 52.7% I'm very thankful to #fintwit for all of the incredible people who've helped me & who have challenged me to become a better thinker, learner, and investor! Below are my 3 biggest lessons from 2019.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

I remain convinced the whole “scooter company” thing was a false flag operation from the largest pensions/endowments intended to expose which VCs had lost their minds.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

$FB Guided Incremental Margins vs. Realized Incremental Margins

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

5 years

Just got engaged to a girl I met on @hinge . Basically had been running somewhat parallel to each other most of our lives (same university, etc). Recently moved to the same city & were both a part of the same larger friend group, just on opposite ends. Met online. Shit works.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

"Our game is to find a few intelligent things to do, not keep up with everything going on in the whole damn world." - Charlie Munger

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

the mail is 95% spam and 5% stuff I will go to prison if I don’t respond to

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

some people who I’ve told that a goal of mine is to compound money at mid-teens for my career have asked “why so low?” ??? like I have a sub 25% chance of achieving that. 14% from here will be tough asf markets these days have people with some unrealistic return expectations

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

how the hell do you run a short book in this market?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

What’s the best thing you’ve read on the semiconductor industry? Any great primers, books, podcasts, or blogs out there to help better understand the value chain?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

“investors are increasingly focusing on free cash flow over the past 12 months” what were we focusing on before that?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

I mean this might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever laid my eyes on.

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

2 years

Needham’s Laura Martin has a report out this am arguing that “there is material upside for $AAPL if it buys $DIS by using shares. .. AAPL is worth 15%-25% more if combined with DIS.”

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

What’s the best fund / investor letter you’ve read this year?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Why do prices fluctuate so widely when we know value doesn’t do the same? Joel Greenblatt: “I don’t know and I don’t care.”

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

management teams when I ask them why they are spending money on low IRR projects instead of returning capital to shareholders

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

5 years

You can’t compound capital if you don’t own stocks. It’s why I’ve never understood why people aren’t basically 100% invested, no matter how scared. A long time horizon is your greatest advantage. Having the ability, over time, to avoid cash-drag is a powerful position to be in.

stef

@scheplick

5 years

You can’t buy dips if you don’t have cash. It’s why I’ve never understood why people are ever 100% invested, no matter how diversified. Optionality is your greatest advantage. Having the option, at any moment, to participate in markets is a powerful position to be in.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

kinda feel like SHOP employees saying ��pay us with more cash instead of stock” kinda settled the “should SBC be deducted from FCF” debate

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

I keep a list of "bad investing outcomes" / ideas I've seen other investors blow up in... and try to find common threads through them. A few of them have led to the establishment of this rule: "do not invest in fast-growing businesses that are making underwriting decisions."

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Mark Leonard's search criteria for Constellation Directors

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

could not disagree with a piece of investing advice more

Sam Parr

@thesamparr

4 years

4. If a big name investor invests, be a follower and invest. They've likely done a ton of work to discover, vet, and analyze. Big investors are pouring resources into finding fast growing industries and companies. Copy them.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

Who won the streaming wars? Consumers.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

7 months

Sherwin Williams Moody’s Lockheed Martin Canadian National Railroad Hilton Vulcan LVMH Public Storage Waste Management Rollins

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Just told a PE guy I needed to get up to speed on a company and would get back to him after I read the last few years worth of Ks, earnings releases, and calls & he looked at me like I had a third eye.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Kind of ironic that the end of Tiger Management was caused by the run up in ~1999, yet the downfall of Tiger Global may be the fallout of 2022 — opposite sides of the same coin.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

Owning $NFLX as they were beginning to produce original content. Owning $AMZN as AWS started to become more important. Owning cable companies as high-speed internet became the main growth driver. Is “thesis creep” intrinsically bad?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

“I’d wager that in 110 years the per capita consumption of soft drinks will have gone up ever single one of those years.” — Warren Buffett, 2001 Berkshire Annual Meeting

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

valuation requires you to make an implicit call on interest rates don’t @ me

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

The Advantage of Deferring Taxes. - 15% IRR - 30 Years - 25% Capital Gains Tax - 100% Turnover... - $1 turns into $24 post-tax - 15% IRR - 30 Years - 25% Capital Gains Tax - Tax Deferral... - $1 turns into $66 pre-tax and $50 post-tax

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

lady and I go out to dinner valet the car and go to pick it up get in the car seat is reclined as far as possible look at the kid who valet’ed my car and ask, “did you recline the seat” looks me dead in the eyes and says “man I had to lay that shit back” what a G

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

2 buckets of stocks right now: - 35x earnings - Issuing debt at 12%

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

What is the best investment idea / pitch you ever heard that subsequently went on to underperform?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

what’s tough about learning about investing is that the true professionals say “I don’t know” to almost everything, and are constantly hedging themselves the charlatans are the ones giving clear prescriptions and advice few other fields have the experts admittedly knowing less

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

my granddad: “which way you guys come in? y’all hop on 414 and get onto 26? or did you stick to 75 and then get off at 42 and go back roads to get here? did you take that shortcut I told you about near Baxley??” dude I followed the blue line

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

5 years

$LOW, $MTCH, $ECL, $SHW, $CHTR, $URI, and $TJX are in my “how is this trading here?” bucket.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

Grew up playing sports with Ahmaud. Thankful for this verdict. Thankful for the leadership his family and a lot of the black pastors in the area have shown during this season. Thankful to see justice come to pass. Praying for a better tomorrow for my community and our country.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

just remembering some of y’all let a 90 year old do your thinking for you and bought Alibaba after no diligence smh

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Is it imprudent for a long-term-oriented investor to run 110% long?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

Disclaimer: I know some Tiger Cubs were short $NFLX, and Julian may have even been at some point as well. But now was right when he said that. Just don’t short good businesses with reinvestment opportunities based on valuation.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

4 years

Up 177% YTD. Long SaaS, IaaS, and PaaS. Short shitcos. Bought a few CDS mid-Feb and tipped Pershing off. 90% cash now. Hedged.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

I feel like building a financial model from scratch is how I get to know a company. I'm not sure I could ever outsource it to someone else.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

I feel like most of the people I know who are long $PTON have not exercised for any extended period of time throughout their life.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

Some businesses that I think are trading at attractive prices here. $AMZN $ROST $GOOG $MTCH $KKR $CMCSA $SPOT $AMAT Was really hoping $NOW was going to sell-off post earnings.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

this man should be home with his 4 kids

New York Post

@nypost

3 years

EXCLUSIVE: Shirtless Jeff Bezos canoodles with Lauren Sánchez on yacht in St. Barts

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

never understood the phrase “it’s a stock pickers market” what are y’all doing the rest of the time?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

$FB 217. Thank you market gods.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

Who are successful investors that launched on their own at a relatively young age? Chase Coleman, obviously. I feel like I remember reading Greenblatt was ~26.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

1 year

@RampCapitalLLC Yes. (1) If the cork gets in the bottle. (2) If the wine is spoiled. (3) If the correct wine/vintage was not brought. Not because you do not like the taste.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

1 year

This cracks me up. "We got a bunch of things right (except for what happens to the economy and where the market is going)."

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

1 year

Probably one of my hottest takes is that a rise in nominal rates shouldn’t necessarily have an effect on “long duration, growth” stocks. FCF / r-g If r is up, but g is up by the same amount, no change.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

1 year

The Mexican airports aren't down proportionally to the revenue/earnings hit. The Mexican airports are down because the cat is out of the bag that the government will take the shareholders' revenue/earnings.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

What is the ideal number of stocks for a concentrated portfolio that represents 100% of an investors net worth?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

this was my brother’s high school girlfriend. like that’s actually her 😂

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

1 year

Why do some high IQ investors fail as investors?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

someone reading Dalio's "Principles" and "learning a lot from it" ngmi

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

1 year

About 35-40% of stocks outperform t-bills and ~25% of stocks outperform the index over a 10-year time horizon.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

After this + $SHOP employees + $TWTR take-private + $AMZN employee frustration — are we still sure SBC isn’t an actual expense that should be deducted when estimating a company’s profitability? I want to hear the arguments why it shouldn’t be.

Netflix Employees Press for More Pay Flexibility as Stock Drop Wipes Out Option Value

Netflix’s stock collapse this week has wiped out the value of all stock options issued to company employees since 2018. It didn’t take long for employees to complain: At a staff meeting the day after...

www.theinformation.com

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

5 years

The amount of liquidity being injected into the system is going to show up in either (i) service/goods inflation, (ii) asset inflation, or (iii) both. I see all scenarios as bullish for $MA / $V.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

What are the investor letters you most want to read, but haven’t been able to track down? Mine would probably be Chris Hohn’s / TCI and Maverick’s.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

College kids always ask me what to read re: investing. Often times, I tell them what I think they shouldn’t read as well. Do not read: - Zerohedge - Grant’s - Jim Rickards - Spruce Point - Mark Yusko - CNBC commentators - Ben Graham in isolation - Growth-at-any-price tweet-bois

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

About this time every year I have to explain to my wife that it is in fact the financial advisor for her company’s 401k that doesn’t know what HE is talking about, and that I am not selling any Google shares to buy his firm’s 2055 target date fund with a 1% management fee.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Who are some investors who have ruined their track record due to overconcentrating in the wrong idea? RCG = Valeant Berkowitz = St. Joe Lampert = Sears Others?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

5 years

$PG and $AMZN both trading at 18x EBITDA.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

What’s your favorite “sneaky good” business?

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

3 years

I'm a generalist who thinks all the below are too cheap post-earnings: $CMCSA - 52.60 $ATVI - 65.58 $FISV - 101.16 $NOC - 351.55 $MVRS - 327.48 You've been warned.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

1 year

HOW TO BECOME A SERVICEABLE FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR This is the time of year I tend to get a lot of questions from students interested in investing. I thought I’d put a tweet together regarding the steps I tell them to take and resources I recommend they should go through.

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

Here is why I'm interested in $ATVI right here...

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Bauncey Chillups

@PrefShares

2 years

What’s the best thing you’ve ever read on capital allocation?

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