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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ Profile
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ

@pineconemacro

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Nerd at Pinecone Macro Research

Fox Island, WA
Joined October 2016
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
2 months
Check out our latest episode with the one and only Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap - come for the geopolitics but stay for the deep dive into his process
@TaylorMadeMacro
Taylor Made Macro Podcast
2 months
@JacobShap joined Taylor Made Macro to talk geopolitics of course but also investing. We go deep on his research and analysis process that investors can learn a lot from! Podcast: YouTube: Show Notes:
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6 years
When you have $200K for an SUV but also have 20 mins to save $3 on a tank of gas
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1 year
I was born at night - but it wasn't last night
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1 year
Man...the comments from the Dallas Fed were brutal this month
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2 years
Since Salesforce replaced Exxon in the Dow - Exxon is up 88% and Salesforce is down 20%
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3 years
The two largest economies in the world will both be rationing electricity this year - hard to describe how bullish that is for fossil fuels
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4 years
The fact that Hertz managed to pile up $17B in debt on a basic business model of buy car โžก๏ธ short term rent car for more than car costs โžก๏ธ sell car...is insane
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2 years
Noticed about a million people cite Druck saying once inflation is above 5% it has never come down without Fed Funds going above inflation. I noticed about zero people citing the part where he said "I actually think we are going to violate history and it is going to come down"
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2 years
As Europe fires up coal plants they are not sure about helping Africa with you know...food...because it may clash with their green goals
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4 years
Me buying ag futures lately
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3 years
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2 years
Not looking particularly inflationary lately
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4 years
I wonder what folks think about the dollar right now?
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2 years
One of the more avoidable blunders in history
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3 years
For those new to charts - this is a bad one... $ARKK
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3 years
36 countries have food inflation above 10% 13 above 20% 9 above 30% 7 above 50% Most concerning is perhaps Turkey - bad monetary policy and a big energy importer - will keep pressure on FX
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5 years
You: โ€œHow are these dumb kids voting for socialists!?โ€ The News: โ€œFed considering lending directly to hedge fundsโ€ Me:
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3 years
Whoopsies
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5 years
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4 years
Remember that time SoftBank revenge traded their WeWork loss with tech calls and it worked
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5 years
One thing I am sure of - millennials have near zero exposure to commodities
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2 years
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1 year
Powell said balance sheet running down at a pace of about $1T a year which is weird because it is flat for the last 4 months
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4 years
Me on day 1 of quarantine versus day 57 All of us wish we were Hugh
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3 years
Been a crazy 14 months since this...
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4 years
Gasoline demand in India is more than 100k b/d higher than the 5 year average right now...during a pandemic A lot of folks think oil demand has peaked or is about to They are wrong...very wrong
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4 months
Thought Covid was 4yrs ago
@financialjuice
FinancialJuice
4 months
US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: HIGH INFLATION IS LARGELY DUE TO FADING SUPPLY SHOCKS.
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3 years
Running thread for the upcoming winter energy crisis
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5 years
$AAPL worth more than energy...all of it
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2 years
Tell me you are levered to ZIRP without telling me you are levered to ZIRP
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4 years
Lumber not taking prisoners
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6 years
Ben Bernanke on QE: โ€œClearly this is a temporary measure which is intended to provide support for the economy in this extraordinary period of crisis and when the economy is back on the road to recovery, we will no longer need to have those measures.โ€
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2 years
If there is a business caseโ€ฆ
@PiQSuite
PiQ
2 years
โš ๏ธTRUDEAU: CANADA WILL EXPLORE WAYS TO SEE IF IT MAKES SENSE TO EXPORT LNG DIRECTLY TO EUROPE, IF THERE'S BUSINESS CASE TO DO SO - Reuters via
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5 years
CBs are telling you the entire playbook - gonna let inflation run hot and pin yields while monetizing fiscal deficits with some political focus on climate and equality Crazy thing is almost none of this is priced...only small pockets are sniffing this out
@Mi2Thoughts
MI2Thoughts
5 years
Christine Lagarde was tight lipped about the specifics of the ECBโ€™s upcoming strategy review, but the results of the Fedโ€™s review may be leaking. The official report wonโ€™t be until 2020, it appears policymakers are considering a โ€œmake-up strategyโ€ allowing for higher inflation.
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5 years
Hate when I buy something when blood is in the streets right before a blood storm floods the streets with way more blood
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5 years
Im gonna start calling perma bears that are mad every day the market doesnโ€™t crash โ€œfinancial justice warriorsโ€ They want perceived justice more than returns FJWs are gonna lose their mind when this bubble finds new gears
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5 years
The investing world is moving toward quant/data/algo into the end of a long term debt cycle where the future looks nothing like the entire data set used to build models - funny how these things work
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3 years
โ€œThere is no better teacher than history in determining the futureโ€ฆ There are answers worth billions of dollars in a $30 history book.โ€ โ€“ Charlie Munger
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3 years
China deploying strategic oil reserves and Russia floating gasoline export banโ€ฆstarting the first inning of the oil shortage Today it is about prices but tomorrow it will be about supply security
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6 years
The AI Powered ETF fell 10.4% today - ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
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5 years
โ”โ”โ”โ”“โ”โ”โ”โ”“โ”โ”โ”โ”“โ”โ”โ”โ”“ โ”—โ”โ”“โ”ƒโ”ƒโ”โ”“โ”ƒโ”—โ”โ”“โ”ƒโ”ƒโ”โ”“โ”ƒ โ”โ”โ”›โ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒโ”โ”โ”›โ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒ Buy Real Assets โ”ƒโ”โ”โ”›โ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒโ”โ”โ”›โ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒโ”ƒ โ”ƒโ”—โ”โ”“โ”ƒโ”—โ”›โ”ƒโ”ƒโ”—โ”โ”“โ”ƒโ”—โ”›โ”ƒ โ”—โ”โ”โ”›โ”—โ”โ”โ”›โ”—โ”โ”โ”›โ”—โ”โ”โ”›
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4 years
If we gap down 5% Monday they gotta make a new gauge
@DanRusso_CMT
Dan Russo, CMT
4 years
5!
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2 years
Object in mirror may be closer than it appears
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@jessefelder
Jesse Felder
2 years
"This is not the earnings season the Fed wanted to see. For now, the consumer is too strong for comfort." by @NickTimiraos
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4 years
I am 37 and Joe Biden became a senator when I was negative 10 years old...
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6 years
Listen up and pay attention
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1 year
Why do I think there is little chance the Fed does cuts before blowing stuff up? Because they are often afraid of inflation after they blew stuff up. This quote is from the Halloween of 2007 Fed meeting - from Charles Plosser (Philly Fed). I do not think it will be different this
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6 years
Literally why people voted for him
@carlbildt
Carl Bildt
6 years
The US President is now in open conflict with the US Congress, the US Federal Reserve, the US Secretary of Defense, China, the EU, the World Trade Organisation and a couple of others. Otherwise itโ€™s OK.
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6 years
Trade War Summary: ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Please do these 20 things ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ We will buy more soybeans ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Please do these 20 things ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ We will buy more soybeans
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4 years
*Buys more oil stocks*
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3 years
Deflationists watching commodities in 2021
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4 years
Starting to think macro folks understand crypto better than crypto folks understand macro
@tyler
Tyler Winklevoss
4 years
The U.S. dollar is a risk-on asset, #bitcoin is risk-off asset
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6 years
While everyone in the US debates whether a US recession is a 30% chance or a 50% chance - Europe and China are dropping some horrific data - the "crashing" US ISM at 54 looks really nice in comparison
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5 months
Notice that the last 3/6 months are one of the most inflationary periods of the last 25 years. That is all after the Fed pivoted.
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3 years
That is all. That is the tweet.
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4 months
What happens when you think r* is under 1%
@VPatelFX
Viraj Patel
4 months
Fed trying to hit 2% inflation
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2 years
Feels like the kind of week where the Turkish Lira could break
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4 years
Most trades ARE the dollar trade whether you want it to be or not
@dailydirtnap
Jared Dillian
4 years
People are way too focused on the dollar. Get another trade.
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Me when I saw the cover
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Everyone is dumping energy and Warren Buffett is buying it
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Ammonia is now more than 30% above its previous all time high
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Such a dumb take
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Something I do not understand is gold bugs being structurally short stocks because they are "overvalued" - the same driver is pushing stocks higher. You would make more money just long gold and ignoring stocks. Short stocks should be tactical only.
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Gotta love this COVID-19 case count style chart but for QEs
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Alternate Headline:US considers releasing emergency oil reserves at $75 and buying it back at $100
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
My friends that run money and the data suggests retail and boomers are not only not puking but wanting to buy - watercooler talk is about buying cruise line stocks in personal accounts - not panic selling in retirement accounts - just something to chew on
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Someone please create an ETF based on Robinhood positioning
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
5 years
This chart is important.
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
5 months
Powell says that while inflation has come in a bit higher recently, โ€œNevertheless we continue to make good progress on bringing inflation down.โ€ Jokes aside - how have we continued to make good progress on bringing inflation down in the last couple of months?
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
2 years
Whale oilโ€™s secular decline continues
@financialjuice
FinancialJuice
2 years
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND CLIMBED IN DECEMBER BY 1.3 MBPD TO A NEW RECORD HIGH- IEF CITING JODI DATA.
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
The next oil bull market will likely not be chased by big money due to PR concerns Shareholder yield is going to be quite rewarding for those not worried about greenwashing their investments
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
If you looking for some yield I found you some
@zerohedge
zerohedge
3 years
TURKEY 10-YEAR GOVT BOND YIELDS UP 495BPS TO 19.01% AT CLOSE
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
If we lose the NatGas relief valve this winterโ€ฆ
@DryBulkETF
BreakWave
3 years
COAL STOCKPILES DROP TO LOWEST SINCE 1997 AT U.S. POWER PLANTS Oh boyโ€ฆ
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
This winter will forever change the narrative for nuclear
@wolfejosh
Josh Wolfe
3 years
Never been better setup for NUCLEAR -Global energy shock + constraints -Higher prices -Nuclear related stocks outperforming -Commodities, Metals, Mining demand cheap energy -Commodity consuming humans demand for zero carbon -Next gen environmentalist awakening to it
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Let that swish around for a minute Cali has had to ask ppl to stop charging EVs and pay them to use generators because the state made their grid 3rd world
@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Literally paying folks to use inefficient and dirty generators after they said they would ban ICE vehiclesโ€ฆ
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
And then what happened? ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
@adam_tooze
Adam Tooze
3 years
In 2020 renewables overtook fossil fuels as a source of electricity in the EU. @SoberLook
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
2 years
Feels like everyone but Germany knew this a year ago
@PiQSuite
PiQ
2 years
โš ๏ธ GERMAN CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ: RUSSIA IS NOT A RELIABLE ENERGY PARTNER - Reuters via
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Love fest for oil lately
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
The one thing I am confident in about the conversation between Trump, MBS, and Putin is that they did not agree to have Trump announce anything
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Shortfalls in energy from central planning failures are unacceptable and will cost lives Execution > Virtue Signaling You get this right or you lose political support and the ability to responsibly decarbonize
@JavierBlas
Javier Blas
3 years
Another key message from @JasonBordoff : โ€œUncertainty about the pace of transition may lead to periodic shortfalls in supply if climate action shutters traditional fossil fuel infrastructure before alternatives can pick up the slackโ€”as may be starting to happen in some places nowโ€
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 months
Fed pivoted from YoY to 3/6 month annualized inflation measures and just re-pivoted back to YoY #datadependent
@financialjuice
FinancialJuice
4 months
FED'S WILLIAMS: INFLATION CONTINUES TO MOVE LOWER
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Exxon doubling down on oil and gas while everyone else is busy greenwashing is exactly why I bought Exxon
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Imagine 80% of your homes are heated by natural gas and yet choosing to only keep a few days of supply in storage
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
The fun part about this is the average investor has no idea that US production is about to fall off a cliff
@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Love fest for oil lately
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
8 months
My favorite Kuppy tweet of the year
@hkuppy
Kuppy
8 months
Most finance bros trying to explain their investment process, vs. me buying cheap assets with a tailwindโ€ฆ
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Things you should probably do more as an investor: 1) trade smaller size 2) when you sell a winner - put a few shares in a coffee can and keep em LONG term 3) never target "getting back to breakeven" - take the damn loss
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
2 years
Heโ€™s running
@JeffBezos
Jeff Bezos
2 years
My first job. And still the same great burger. Happy Sunday!
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
This is art right here...want this painted on canvas
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
I am just glad the energy crisis is over
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
This is exactly how Kyle became a billionaire...its how you make money...you swing at fat pitches HARD *while* managing risk...if you bet on the average future you get average returns
@LT3000Lyall
Lyall Taylor
4 years
@BvddyCorleone @ErikSTownsend @Jkylebass @contrarian8888 @hkuppy @trader_ferg @pineconemacro @TihoBrkan @profplum99 @Convertbond @GreekFire23 I think macro guys like Bass get themselves into trouble/paint themselves into a corner by being too confident about a specific version of the future playing out. It is better to develop comfort with ambiguity/uncertainty and invest with multiple future scenarios in mind.
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Energy crisis aint over yall
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Inflation will stay stubbornly high until we see large investments globally into fossil fuels
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
If you are begging Russia for gas and coal in October maybe your energy policy is a giant fake virtue filled failure - economic, humanitarian, and geostrategic failure of epic proportions
@C_Barraud
Christophe Barraud๐Ÿ›ข๐Ÿณ
3 years
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ #Europe Asking #Russia for More Coal Is Set for Disappointment - Bloomberg *Link:
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
6 years
Yo this $SPY / $EEM chart is about to be a PROBLEM
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
5 years
China stocks fall 6% and US stocks fall 1% - just sayin
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Love this answer from Druck
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
5 months
Bostic said the quiet part out loud today... "I'm not in a hurry to get inflation down to 2%.." And this is the dude with 1 cut priced... Just think about that
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@pineconemacro
๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
2 years
Poor North Korea launching missiles and nobody cares
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
7 years
Just sayin
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
5 years
Not with that attitude
@TommyThornton
Thomas Thornton
5 years
Fed Chair Powell Warns Congress That $1 Trillion Budget Deficits Are Unsustainable. Or in other words the Fed can't fund the government forever.
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
4 years
Shorting Turkey is basically UBI for macro traders
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๐๐ข๐ง๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ซ๐จ
3 years
Good luck ECB
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