@JacobShap
joined Taylor Made Macro to talk geopolitics of course but also investing. We go deep on his research and analysis process that investors can learn a lot from! Podcast:
YouTube:
Show Notes:
The fact that Hertz managed to pile up $17B in debt on a basic business model of buy car โก๏ธ short term rent car for more than car costs โก๏ธ sell car...is insane
Noticed about a million people cite Druck saying once inflation is above 5% it has never come down without Fed Funds going above inflation. I noticed about zero people citing the part where he said "I actually think we are going to violate history and it is going to come down"
36 countries have food inflation above 10%
13 above 20%
9 above 30%
7 above 50%
Most concerning is perhaps Turkey - bad monetary policy and a big energy importer - will keep pressure on FX
Gasoline demand in India is more than 100k b/d higher than the 5 year average right now...during a pandemic
A lot of folks think oil demand has peaked or is about to
They are wrong...very wrong
Ben Bernanke on QE:
โClearly this is a temporary measure which is intended to provide support for the economy in this extraordinary period of crisis and when the economy is back on the road to recovery, we will no longer need to have those measures.โ
CBs are telling you the entire playbook - gonna let inflation run hot and pin yields while monetizing fiscal deficits with some political focus on climate and equality
Crazy thing is almost none of this is priced...only small pockets are sniffing this out
Christine Lagarde was tight lipped about the specifics of the ECBโs upcoming strategy review, but the results of the Fedโs review may be leaking. The official report wonโt be until 2020, it appears policymakers are considering a โmake-up strategyโ allowing for higher inflation.
Im gonna start calling perma bears that are mad every day the market doesnโt crash โfinancial justice warriorsโ
They want perceived justice more than returns
FJWs are gonna lose their mind when this bubble finds new gears
The investing world is moving toward quant/data/algo into the end of a long term debt cycle where the future looks nothing like the entire data set used to build models - funny how these things work
โThere is no better teacher than history in determining the futureโฆ There are answers worth billions
of dollars in a $30 history book.โ
โ Charlie Munger
China deploying strategic oil reserves and Russia floating gasoline export banโฆstarting the first inning of the oil shortage
Today it is about prices but tomorrow it will be about supply security
Why do I think there is little chance the Fed does cuts before blowing stuff up? Because they are often afraid of inflation after they blew stuff up. This quote is from the Halloween of 2007 Fed meeting - from Charles Plosser (Philly Fed). I do not think it will be different this
The US President is now in open conflict with the US Congress, the US Federal Reserve, the US Secretary of Defense, China, the EU, the World Trade Organisation and a couple of others. Otherwise itโs OK.
Trade War Summary:
๐บ๐ธ Please do these 20 things
๐จ๐ณ We will buy more soybeans
๐บ๐ธ Please do these 20 things
๐จ๐ณ We will buy more soybeans
While everyone in the US debates whether a US recession is a 30% chance or a 50% chance - Europe and China are dropping some horrific data - the "crashing" US ISM at 54 looks really nice in comparison
Something I do not understand is gold bugs being structurally short stocks because they are "overvalued" - the same driver is pushing stocks higher. You would make more money just long gold and ignoring stocks. Short stocks should be tactical only.
My friends that run money and the data suggests retail and boomers are not only not puking but wanting to buy - watercooler talk is about buying cruise line stocks in personal accounts - not panic selling in retirement accounts - just something to chew on
Powell says that while inflation has come in a bit higher recently, โNevertheless we continue to make good progress on bringing inflation down.โ
Jokes aside - how have we continued to make good progress on bringing inflation down in the last couple of months?
The next oil bull market will likely not be chased by big money due to PR concerns
Shareholder yield is going to be quite rewarding for those not worried about greenwashing their investments
Never been better setup for NUCLEAR
-Global energy shock + constraints
-Higher prices
-Nuclear related stocks outperforming
-Commodities, Metals, Mining
demand cheap energy
-Commodity consuming humans
demand for zero carbon
-Next gen environmentalist awakening to it
Let that swish around for a minute
Cali has had to ask ppl to stop charging EVs and pay them to use generators because the state made their grid 3rd world
Shortfalls in energy from central planning failures are unacceptable and will cost lives
Execution > Virtue Signaling
You get this right or you lose political support and the ability to responsibly decarbonize
Another key message from
@JasonBordoff
: โUncertainty about the pace of transition may lead to periodic shortfalls in supply if climate action shutters traditional fossil fuel infrastructure before alternatives can pick up the slackโas may be starting to happen in some places nowโ
Things you should probably do more as an investor:
1) trade smaller size
2) when you sell a winner - put a few shares in a coffee can and keep em LONG term
3) never target "getting back to breakeven" - take the damn loss
This is exactly how Kyle became a billionaire...its how you make money...you swing at fat pitches HARD *while* managing risk...if you bet on the average future you get average returns
If you are begging Russia for gas and coal in October maybe your energy policy is a giant fake virtue filled failure - economic, humanitarian, and geostrategic failure of epic proportions
Bostic said the quiet part out loud today...
"I'm not in a hurry to get inflation down to 2%.."
And this is the dude with 1 cut priced...
Just think about that