Deputy Director
@DelorsBerlin
| all things EU institutional | prev. Assistant Prof
@lawinmaastricht
| host of EU to go podcast | attention span of a goldfish
Besonders schön fand ich übrigens diese Worte in der Vorstellung: „Dabei sieht es so aus, als habe Dr. Thu Nguyen (…) Europa bereits in die Wiege gelegt bekommen“. Denn genauso fühlt es sich für mich an.
Ich durfte heute, zwei Tage vor der Europawahl, mit
@ErhardScherfer
und
@wahlforschung
im
@phoenix_de
Podcast „unter 3“ ausführlich über die EU sprechen. Es war ein sehr angenehmes Gespräch (vielen Dank!), das ihr hier anhören könnt:
This morning, German chancellor Olaf Scholz gave a keynote address on his vision for🇪🇺at Charles University, Prague, entitled "Europe is our future".
Some of his points on EU institutional reforms:
Still letting the contents of
@EmmanuelMacron
‘s Sorbonne speech sink in (I was too distracted by the magnificant atmosphere of the room to analyse the speech while listening), but two things stood out to me:
Der Europäische Gerichtshof hat Polen zu Strafzahlungen in Höhe von €1 Mio. für jeden Tag, an dem das Land das EuGH-Urteil zu seiner Disziplinarkammer nicht umsetzt, verurteilt.
Ein Thread mit einer kurzen Einordnung zu der Höhe dieser Summe:
Today the first meeting of the European Political Community takes place in Prague. We made a chart on how the EPC relates to other forms of political cooperation in Europe:
(A
@DelorsBerlin
paper on the EPC to follow soon)
Very honored to be member of the Franco-German group on EU institutional reforms and looking forward to start working on proposals on how to strengthen the EU‘s functioning in the future.
Douze experts 🇫🇷🇩🇪 vont travailler à des propositions concrètes pour que les institutions de l’Union gagnent en efficacité et garanties démocratiques, et qu’elles soient adaptées au prochain élargissement.
Very excited to take on the role of Deputy Director at
@DelorsBerlin
. Much looking forward to this new era of working with Directors
@LindnerJS
and Mark Dawson and my co-Deputy Director
@niredeker
. Nils will head our econ policy work, while I will lead our EU institutional work!
We have a new Deputy Director!🎉
We are thrilled that
@onethuthree
is now joining
@niredeker
,
@LindnerJS
and Mark Dawson to make up our wonderful leadership team - congratulations Thu!
In a hilarious turn of events, I was interviewed on German television last night not to analyse EU policy but to comment (very expertly, clearly) on the football match 😂
Our Franco-German report on EU institutional reforms to prepare for enlargement is out since yesterday:
A thread highlighting some of the recommendations from my point of view:
1/ First, what
@GeorginaEWright
says: It might not have been a new vision for the EU but it was an ambitious and comprehensive speech that set a tone of urgency, also with a view to the upcoming EU elections (“Our Europe is mortal. It can die, and it all depends on our choices.“)
9. Ultimately, it felt more like an endorsement of Macron’s EU vision and a plea to go faster, rather than a new vision. But in today’s EU, it feels like Macron is the only leader capable of giving a speech that is, yes long, but also ambitious and comprehensive. END.
15/ Um einen langen Thread sehr kurz zu fassen: 1€ Millionen tägliche Strafzahlungen sind viel Geld in einem Vertragsverletzungsverfahren, aber wenig Geld im Vergleich zu anderen Instrumenten, die der Kommission zur Wahrung der Rechtsstaatlichkeit zur Verfügung stehen.
The
@EU_Commission
is bringing an infringement procedure against Germany because of the BVerfG's PSPP judgment of May last year.
A thread on why I think this makes a lot of sense:
2/ Second, that being said, the speech was comprehensive on policy but not on institutions. In fact, Macron barely mentions institutions or institutional reform at all. The EU institutions are mentioned the most comprehensively in the salutations.
Der Europäische Gerichtshof hat heute die Klage Ungarns und Polens gegen den EU-Rechtsstaatsmechanismus abgewiesen.
Ein Thread zur Bedeutung und Anwendung des Mechanismus:
1/ On Treaty reforms: EU Treaties not set in stone, where necessary they should be changed, Scholz says. Abstract debates on Treaty reforms not useful but starting point should be question of what concrete changes are needed - "form follows function"
Hier ist das vorläufige Ergebnis der Europawahlen 2024. Dazu ein paar schnelle vorläufige Gedanken:
Erstens, die rechten Parteien sind stärker geworden, aber die pro-europäische Mitte hält und hat weiterhin eine Mehrheit im Europaparlament.
4/ Very notably, he also does not speak about enlargement. Only says that’s Ukraine, Moldovan and Western Balkan are destined to join the EU “when the time comes“ and that the EU can only be enlarged if it is thoroughly reformed and simplified, but does not elaborate.
4/ On Council: Gradual introduction of QMV, starting with e.g. sanctions or human rights. Says alternative to QMV is not unanimity but rather a convoluted situation of opt-ins and opt-outs that would stand in way of European unity
7/ Lastly, on a more personal note: The speech was objectively very long but did not feel that long at all in the hall. The combination of the atmosphere at Sorbonne and the way Macron delivered the speech really made it one of the highlights of my think tanking career so far.
2/ On European Political Community: Geopolitical idea of bringing closer those sharing same values as EU to become stronger through cooperation. Forum to discuss central topics such as security, climate, energy but not an alternative to enlargement
Hungary is reportedly set to receive almost €1 billion in EU funds without any conditions attached, after RRF and cohesion funds have been withheld for quite some time on rule of law grounds.
A thread on the mechanics behind this number:
3/ On enlargement: Serious prospectives for EU accession as prerequisite for stability on the continent, and institutional reforms (see below) as prerequisite for enlargement if EU is to function at 30+ member states - i.e. widening requires deepening
Come join our
@DelorsBerlin
team! We have a new very exciting vacancy for Policy Fellow for EU Democracy. If you are fascinated by Spitzenkandidaten, electoral reform and other 🇪🇺 institutional questions, this position is for you:
Deadline on 15 October!
Thank you President
@EmmanuelMacron
and Präsident Steinmeier for the opportunity to exchange on EU rule of law, budget and competitiveness with
@DelorsBerlin
@thehertieschool
today on the occasion of the French President’s state visit 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺
The second meeting of the European Political Community takes place today in Chișinău, Moldova. I updated our chart on who takes part in the EPC and how it relates to other forms of political cooperation in Europe:
This morning, German chancellor Olaf Scholz gave a speech on the future of Europe in the
@Europarl_EN
, as a follow-up to his Prague speech in August last year.
A thread on his points on EU institutional reforms, also in comparison to his Prague speech:
3/ He briefly lists citizens participation (ECI, referenda), transnational lists and QMV on foreign policy and taxation as elements of the reforms needed but then quickly concludes that while we have to go much further on this subject he won’t overwhelm us in the speech.
A year ago today, I left my secure job in academia to join the unknown think tanking world at
@DelorsBerlin
with not a clue what to expect. And what a year it has been - best one yet in my professional life and much of it is thanks to everyone I get to work with everyday.
Today, on the eve of Ursula von der Leyen’s possible re-election as Commission President, there is some discussion on whether a no-vote against her in the European Parliament tomorrow would plunge the EU into a institutional mess.
A thread on why I think it would:
9/ Um den Unterschied zu den Zwangsgeldern zu verdeutlichen: Setzt Polen das EuGH-Urteil nicht um, verliert es bis Ende des Jahres €65 Mio. durch die Strafzahlungen. Das sind 2,1% (!) dessen, was Polen gerade an RRF-Geldern nur in diesem Jahr zu verlieren droht.
I was on
@BBCWorld
earlier today to give a live interview on yesterday’s ruling of the Polish constitutional tribunal. I spoke about why the judgement is a blatant breach of Poland‘s obligations under the Treaties and what the EU can do about it.
The
@EU_Commission
presented its
#REPowerEU
plan today, to be integrated into the existing Recovery and Resilience Facility.
With
@niredeker
and
@ph_jaeg
we had a look. A quick thread on what the REPowerEU proposal will mean for the RRF:
Late to the tweet but still very humbled and exhilarated that I got to testify next to
@lucasguttenberg
in a Bundestag committee hearing on the 🇪🇺 own resources decision earlier this week.
You can still watch the hearing here:
3/ Für den
@Verfassungsblog
habe ich berechnet, wie die täglichen Zwangsgelder gegen Polen nach diesen Kommissionskriterien aussehen könnten, wenn wir von einem sehr schweren und sehr langem Verstoß ausgehen. Das Ergebnis: ungefähr €244.000 pro Tag.
Dieser Artikel in der
@faznet
über die BVerfG-Entscheidung zu NGEU steht exemplarisch dafür, was in Teilen der deutschen Berichterstattung zu Europa schief geht.
Ein Thread:
12/ Dennoch macht der Vergleich deutlich, welch ein Druckmittel die Kommission durch die Genehmigung der nationalen Aufbau- und Resilienzpläne unter dem Wiederaufbaufonds in den Händen hält.
I disagree with this article. A no-vote on VdL would certainly plunge the EU into an institutional mess. I also don't see why another candidate (who even?!), who was not a lead candidate during the elections, would be a more democratic option or better able to command a majority
1/ First things first, wie werden Strafzahlungen in Vertragsverletzungsverfahren eigentlich berechnet? Finanzielle Sanktionen müssen durch die EU-Kommission beantragt werden, die eine eigene, unverbindliche Methode zur Berechnung von Zwangsgeldern entwickelt hat.
5/ Die Summe erscheint jedoch deutlich weniger hoch, wenn wir sie mit den Summen vergleichen, die derzeit für Polen im Rahmen des Wiederaufbaufonds auf dem Spiel stehen.
2/ Diese basiert im Wesentlichen auf drei Kriterien: die Schwere des Verstoßes, die Dauer des Verstoßes und die Notwendigkeit einer abschreckenden Wirkung der Strafe. Wichtig: Der EuGH ist nicht gebunden an diese Berechnungen und kann vom Kommissionsantrag abweichen.
6/ Aus dem Wiederaufbaufonds stehen Polen insgesamt €23,9 Mrd. an Zuschüssen zu. Von diesen €23,9 Mrd. können 13% bis Ende 2021 als Vorfinanzierung ausgezahlt werden. Das bedeutet, dass Polen noch vor Ende des Jahres €3,1 Mrd. aus dem RRF-Topf erhalten könnte.
13/ Am Ende des Tages geht es schließlich nicht (nur) darum, Mitgliedsstaaten für Verstöße gegen rechtsstaatliche Prinzipien zu bestrafen. Sondern darum, sie von künftigen Verstößen abzuschrecken bzw. sie dazu zu bringen, bestehende Verstöße so schnell wie möglich zu beheben.
10/ Das soll natürlich nicht heißen, dass die täglichen 1€ Mio., die Polen nun zahlen muss, nicht von Bedeutung sind. Kombiniert mit den Summen aus den anderen Fällen sind es immer noch viele Millionen Euro, die nun in der Staatskasse fehlen werden:
#Poland
's worsening
#ruleoflaw
breakdown in 3 daily fines
1⃣ €100.000 per day for violating ECJ order in C-441/17 R (Białowieża Forest)
2⃣ €500.000 per day for violating ECJ order in C-121/R (Turów mine)
3⃣ €1.000.000 per day for violating ECJ order in C-204/21 R (
#MuzzleLaw
)
Mein Gastbeitrag für den
@Tagesspiegel
, warum die EU sich erweitern und reformieren muss und welche Reformen am drängendsten sind, heute Morgen auch im Print:
6/ I‘ll try to analyse the implications of the speech a little more over the next few days but in the meantime have a look at
@niredeker
‘s analysis of the economic policy takeaways of the speech (of which there are many more than of the institutional ones):
Emmanuel Macron just delivered his much-anticipated Sorbonne 2.0 speech about the EU's future. Here's a first attempt to sift through the main economic policy takeaways.
5/ On EP: Merely states that enlargement will require a re-balancing of seats in EP, whereby each vote should approx. carry the same weigh. No mention of e.g. stronger role for EP in decision-making
A few interesting remarks on enlargement and institutional reforms in Von der Leyen's SOTEU speech this morning (even though the national geographic videos next to her were slightly distracting). Short thread:
6/ On COM: Says it is important to retain principle of one Commissioner per MS but separate portfolio for each Commissioner would lead to 'kafkaesque' situation. Suggests two responsible Commissioners per directorate general (I don't really get this one)
11/ Ausserdem: Viele kleine Summen addieren sich irgendwann zu einer großen schmerzhaften Summe auf, ganz abgesehen von der Signalwirkung solcher erfolgreicher Vertragsverletzungsverfahren.
4/ Die EU-Kommission hat im Fall der Disziplinarkammer jedoch das 4-fache dieses Betrags beantragt - und der EuGH ist diesem Antrag nun heute gefolgt. Aus dieser Perspektive erscheint eine Strafzahlung von €1 Mio. pro Tag also sehr hoch.
The next EU elections are coming up fast. Ahead of 2024, my new
@DelorsBerlin
policy paper takes a critical look at transnational lists and Spitzenkandidaten and assesses their potential to enhance EU democracy in light of the EU’s institutional set-up:
14/ Und dafür muss die Kommission in der Lage sein, den betreffenden Mitgliedstaaten nicht nur glaubwürdig zu drohen, sondern auch mit Beträgen zu drohen, die hoch genug sind, um eine abschreckende Wirkung zu haben.
8/ On RoL: 1) get away from blockages under art. 7 TEU (does not say how); 2) make EU funds conditional upon compliance with RoL as under current MFF 201-2027 and RRF;
8/ Offiziell hat die Kommission die Zurückhaltung der Genehmigung nicht begründet, aber der Schluss liegt nahe, dass die Gründe vor allem Probleme bei der Rechtsstaatlichkeit sind.
The European Political Community (EPC) was inaugurated last month. In my new
@DelorsBerlin
paper I trace the evolution of the EPC, how it relates to other fora for political cooperation in Europe, and illustrate possible models for its future shape:
We discovered this week that my Microsoft Teams answering machine greets callers with “Thursday is currently not available” when I don’t pick up because it thinks my name is the abbreviation for a weekday and I have been laughing about this a lot longer than I should 😂
Olaf Scholz just gave his first big keynote address on the Future of the EU at the Charles University in Prague. Three quick points on the economic policy dimensions of the speech that were actually quite interesting.
7/ Voraussetzung für die Auszahlung Mittel aus dem Wiederaufbaufonds ist jedoch die Genehmigung der nationalen Aufbau- und Resilienzplans durch die Kommission und den Rat, die derzeit für Polen noch aussteht.
Poland is ordered by
@EUCourtPress
to pay a fine of 1€ million a day for failing to comply with interim measures relating to its Disciplinary Chamber.
For the
@Verfassungsblog
I looked into the question of whether that is actually a lot of money or not:
9/ On RoL: 3) open new ways for COM to trigger infringement proceedings in cases of violations of article 2 TEU values; and 4) have open dialogue on political level about RoL deficits in all MS on basis of RoL reports
In personal news: Last week, after 7 wonderful years, I left
@lawinmaastricht
to join
@DelorsBerlin
as Policy Fellow for EU Institutions&Democracy. I’m so thankful for my time at
@MaastrichtU
, which will always be like home, and very excited for all things to come now in Berlin!
A fine of €1m a day sounds a lot but goes to show how much leverage the Commission has over MS by withholding RRF grants. Even if Poland were to refuse to implement the ECJ judgment for a year, the sanction would be €365m - a fraction of the €23.9bn at stake under the RRF.
After the commission asked the EU top court to fine Poland for ignoring its decisions, justice commissioner Didier Reynders told
@Sam1Fleming
that the penalties should be as high as €1m a day, though he stressed the decision was up to the court.
Ich freue mich sehr über die Auszeichnung durch
@Europe_Table
als eine der Top 10 EU Think Tanker - und noch mehr darüber in so bester Gesellschaft zu sein. Besonders schön, dass
@DelorsBerlin
auch mit
@LindnerJS
gleich zweimal vertreten ist!
There is a lot of noise around cancelling the Hungarian Council presidency 2024. The
@Europarl_EN
adopted a resolution calling for the Council to "find a proper solution".
A thread on the role of Council presidencies and the (limited) practical risks of a Hungarian presidency:
Ursula von der Leyen gave her speech for a second mandate in the European Parliament. Some thoughts on her points on institutional reform and rule of law in the political guidelines published this morning:
Die 20. EU to go-Podcastfolge ist im Kasten! 🎬 Diesmal mit
@niredeker
und special guest
@d_boeselager
zu unserem Lieblingsthema: das 🇪🇺Wiederaufbauinstrument. Stay tuned!
@DelorsBerlin
Neues Jahr, neue Podcastaufnahme 🎧 In der nächsten Folge sprechen
@SebastianMack_
und ich über die umstrittene EU-Taxonomie - stay tuned!
@DelorsBerlin
From Elysée to Aachen: what can France and Germany do to rebuild Europe after Corona? Join us on 26 June for the new Franco-German Dialogue Series, organized jointly by
@DelorsBerlin
@thehertieschool
and
@sciencespo
! Link for registration here:
Gestern hat die
@EU_Commission
ihr Erweiterungspaket verabschiedet und Verhandlungen mit der Ukraine und Moldau empfohlen. Unsere stellv. Direktorin
@onethuthree
erklärt in den
@tagesthemen
, warum und wie sich die EU auf neue Mitglieder vorbereiten muss.
In the German Bundestag yesterday to give a presentation on our work with
@niredeker
on how the RRF is linked to the European Semester and REPowerEU.
@thehertieschool
@DelorsBerlin
7/ Sechstens, es gibt viel Aufmerksamkeit für die Ergebnisse in DE und FR (Erstarken von AfD, RN, Renconquête + Neuwahlen in FR), aber es gibt auch einen anderen Trend: Grüne und Linke Sieger in Schweden; Fidesz weniger stark als erwartet in Ungarn; Verluste für PiS in Polen.
I wrote a short piece for
@Verfassungsblog
on the Commission’s decision to bring an infringement procedure against Germany because of last year’s BVerfG PSPP judgment.
@DelorsBerlin
Following the BVerfG
#PSPP
judgment, the European Commission has launched infringement proceedings against Germany.
THU NGUYEN (
@onethuthree
) argues that the Commission's decision is right - as a matter of principle.
Europe—It Can Die. A New European Paradigm
For the first time in English, we publish the full text of
@EmmanuelMacron
’s speech on Europe at the Sorbonne.
French, Spanish and Italian versions can be found in
@Grand_Continent
.
At the end of the day, today has been a delightful surprise on how well the EU is working: Not only did the EU top job selection go incredibly smoothly but VdL, a Spitzenkandidat, was re-elected with a much wider margin than 2019 and did not even need the votes of the far-right.
Ich durfte ein ganzes Interview mit
@joha_roth
und
@zeitonline
führen zu der Frage, welche finanziellen Druckmittel die EU in Sachen Rechtsstaatlichkeit gegen Polen in der Hand hat und wie sie diese anwenden kann.
Member states' final recovery and resilience plans are starting to trickle in this week in Brussels. But what happens once they are submitted?
Here's a reminder on the next steps under the RRF:
@DelorsBerlin
In my new
@DelorsBerlin
policy brief, I map the tools the EU has at its disposal to impose financial measures on member states that breach the rule of law, and explain why and how they can (continue to) be wielded.
A thread: