Original research, scholarly content, data, surveys, and economic analysis of the Research Group of
@NewYorkFed
. Home to research centers
#AMEC
and
#NYFedCMD
.
Estimating HANK for Central Banks
By Sushant Acharya, William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Shlok Goyal, Ethan Matlin, Donggyu Lee, Reca Sarfati, and Sikata Sengupta
>>>
#AMEC
Our
#AMEC
economists share the latest forecasts for GDP growth, core PCE inflation, and the real natural rate of interest generated by the New York Fed's DSGE model.
.
@Columbia
and the New York Fed (
#AMEC
) are jointly hosting a conference in honor of Guillermo Calvo—with sessions at both institutions.
Feb 22-24
Program and registration:
We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest (r-star), trend growth, and the output gap for the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area through 2023:Q2 using the Holston-Laubach-Williams (“HLW”) model.
#AMEC
Charts and replication code:
>>
We’re excited to launch AMEC, a research center devoted to advancing the fields of macroeconomics and applied econometrics. Check out our hub to learn more about the affiliated economists, their research interests, tools and models, and events.
#AMECenter
Panel discussion on fast
#payments
and cross-border payments considered the significant innovation that is possible without
#blockchain
technology.
Ross Leckow (
@BIS_org
), David Ornstein (
@batonsystems
), Scott Shay (Signature Bank), and Ryan Zagone (
@Wise
) comprised the panel.
Richard Crump (
@nyfedresearch
) and coauthors introduce a suite of formal and visual tools based on
#binscatter
plots to restore, and in some dimensions surpass, the classical scatter plot.
+ Python, R, and Stata code
Ozge Akinci and Marco Del Negro have accepted research appointments at
@CEPR_org
; Akinci will be a research affiliate in the international macroeconomics and finance program and Del Negro will be a research fellow in the monetary economics and fluctuations program.
Ivan Werning (
@MITEcon
) has joined the list of presenters at
#AMEC
’s upcoming symposium on “Climate Change: Implication for Macroeconomics” (May 13).
RSVP to join the livestream of the virtual event, which is open to the public and media.
Short- and medium-term inflation expectations rose to new series highs of 5.2 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, according to the August Survey of Consumer Expectations.
International Banking and Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Global Liquidity, Regulation, and Implications
By Claudia M. Buch and Linda S. Goldberg
>>>
The latest from
@LibertyStEcon
On the Distributional Effects of Inflation and Inflation Stabilization
By Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula
#AMEC
We hosted leading researchers to explore the topic of heterogeneity in macroeconomics at our first
#AMEC
symposium. Two
@LibertyStEcon
posts this week capture the discussion.
1 of 2 -->
Each year, the New York Fed hires exceptional college graduates for our two-year research analyst program. Applications for positions with a summer 2021 start date are open. Learn more here:
Using evidence from the 1918 flu, Correia, Luck, and Verner find that measures such as social distancing reduce the mortality and severity of a pandemic, and also benefit the economic recovery.
Are you an Economics or Finance PhD student? Apply for our 2024 paid summer internship program.
In this role, you can further your dissertation research, interact with New York Fed economists, and obtain feedback on your work.
Details here:
In opening remarks, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard described how many central banks around the world “have pivoted monetary policy strongly” to stall inflation, with adjustment happening quickly in some sectors and lagging in others.
Full remarks:
At the Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance today, Oleg Itskhoki (
@UCLA
) shared a framework for thinking about how sanctions and asset freezes affect exchange rate dynamics.
Agenda:
Today marks the resumption of regular releases of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast.
We discuss the model’s new features, estimates of current quarter GDP growth, and performance during the pandemic period on
@LibertyStEcon
:
The New York Fed DSGE Model: A Post-Covid Assessment
By Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, Ramya Nallamotu, and Brian Pacula
>>>
#AMEC
Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations continued their steep declines: the one-year measure fell to 5.7% in August from 6.2% in July, while the three-year measure fell to 2.8% from 3.2%. Expectations also fell at the five-year horizon.
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations both declined sharply in July, to 6.2% and 3.2% from 6.8% and 3.6% in June, respectively.
Acharya and Dogra use a stylized HANK model (which they dub a "PRANK") to disentangle how heterogeneity among households might affect aggregate economic outcomes.
Regular publication of the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index starts today.
Find charts, brief commentary, and data for download on the New York Fed’s website.
CMDI:
Blog analysis:
#CMDI
We're now sharing estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, for the United States and other advanced economies. Download data through 2018:Q2 here:
Global
#supplychain
pressures declined in June, according to the latest estimates of our Global Supply Chain Pressure Index.
See commentary and data on our
#AMEC
hub:
The average lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job (their “reservation wage”) rose to $72,873 in July from $68,954 a year ago. The increase was most pronounced for respondents under age 45, college graduates, and men.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.4 percentage points to 12.2% in August, its highest reading since May 2020. This increase was broad based across demographic groups.
New
@LibertyStEcon
post discusses the severe liquidity strains that arose in the repo market related to the coronavirus pandemic and the Fed's actions aimed at reducing market pressures.
The August Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity fell sharply in New York State. The headline general business conditions index plunged 42 points to -31.3.
Web:
PDF:
Our
#AMEC
economists share the latest forecasts for GDP growth, core PCE inflation, and the real natural rate of interest generated by the New York Fed's DSGE model.
Liberty Street Economics >>>
AMEC >>>
New
#DSGE
analysis helps distinguish the drivers of
#inflation
and attributes much of the recent inflation surge to a large (and persistent) cost-push shock in 2021:Q2.
#AMEC
➡️
We’re launching Reserve Demand Elasticity as a new research product beginning today.
A web feature offers the latest and historical estimates, plus information on the methodology and interpretation.
Press release:
Web:
When the economy hits sudden headwinds, like the COVID-19 pandemic, conditions can evolve rapidly. A new metric—the Weekly Economic Index—measures real economic activity in real time.
Our special issue leads with an examination of dysfunction in the corporate bond market at the onset of the pandemic and the impact of credit facilities established to help restore market functioning.
#EPR
This article:
Full issue:
Results of the November Survey of Consumer Expectations show that inflation expectations decreased in the short, medium, and longer terms to 5.2 percent, 3.0 percent, and 2.3 percent, respectively.
New post shares the latest economic forecasts generated by the New York Fed’s DSGE model, considering three
#COVID19
scenarios: a “Temporary Lockdown,” a “Lockdown with Business Cycle Dynamics,” and a “Second Wave.” Link through to new interactive charts.
Global supply chain pressures decreased in August, continuing the easing observed over the past three months.
#GSCPI
#AMEC
#supplychain
Chart and data for download>>
Mark your calendars
Conference on "The Credibility of Government Policies" honoring Guillermo Calvo—with sessions at the New York Fed and Columbia University.
Feb 22-24
Program and registration:
#AMEC
New York Fed research economist Linda Goldberg and Bundesbank VP
Claudia Buch set the stage for the conference, spelling out important themes and directions of
#IBRN
work.
R-STAR | HLW ESTIMATION
We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest (r-star), trend growth, and the output gap for the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area through 2023:Q1 using the Holston-Laubach-Williams (“HLW”) model.
#AMEC
>>
New
#AMEC
analysis presents the forecast generated by the New York Fed’s DSGE model for September. The outlook compared to June is slightly more pessimistic in terms of inflation, and broadly unchanged in terms of real activity.
Liberty Street Economics:
Our
#AMEC
economists turn again to a DSGE model to understand what different monetary policy approaches can achieve against a backdrop of a flat Phillips curve.
#InflationTargeting
U.S. HOME PRICE CHANGES
We’ve posted new data on year-over-year on home price changes through June 2022. Hover over a county for granular data.
➡️
#housingmarket
SCE LABOR MARKET SURVEY
The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks increased to 28.4 percent in July 2024 from 19.4 percent in July 2023, marking the highest reading since March 2014.
#LaborMarket
In Staff Reports⬇️
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
By Brandyn Bok, Thomas M. Mertens, and John C. Williams
#AMEC
The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—increased from $72,873 in July to $73,667 in November, the highest reading of the series.
Interactive Charts >>>
Global supply chain pressures increased moderately in November, continuing a trend seen in October, albeit at a lower rate.
#GSCPI
#AMEC
#supplychain
>>
We track the year-over-year change in home prices across 1,200 U.S. counties and the United States as a whole. With this month’s update, data range from January 2003 to September 2022.
#housingmarket
#homeprices
We have resumed updating our estimates of r-star and related variables following a COVID-related hiatus.
Visit our web feature “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest” for charts and downloadable data.
#AMEC
The Curious Case of the Rise in Deflation Expectations
By Olivier Armantier, Gizem Kosar, Jason Somerville, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams
>>>>
CORPORATE BOND MARKET DISTRESS INDEX (CMDI)
The CMDI has updated with data through August 2022.
The CMDI uses weekly metrics to construct an aggregate index of corporate bond market conditions for both the primary and the secondary markets.
>>
Jennifer La’O of Columbia University discussed her work arguing that optimal monetary policy should focus on stabilizing a price index that assigns higher weights to industries with “stickier” prices.
#AMEC
We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, and related variables for the United States through 2023:Q3 using the Laubach-Williams (LW) model.
Estimates using the HLW model will follow tomorrow.
Explore the charts:
New
#AMEC
analysis describes the economic forecast generated by the New York Fed's DSGE model for December and its change since September.
Interactive charts:
Dealer Capacity and U.S. Treasury Market Functionality
By Darrell Duffie, Michael J. Fleming, Frank Keane, Claire Nelson, Or Shachar, and Peter Van Tassel
>>>
March 2023 SCE Labor Market Survey
The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—rose to a new series high of $75,811.
Survey results>>>
Center for Microeconomic Data >>>
One-year-ahead inflation expectations declined sharply to 4.2%, according to the February Survey of Consumer Expectations. Three-year-ahead expectations were unchanged at 2.7%, while five-year-ahead expectations rose to 2.6%.
>>>
QUARTERLY REPORT ON HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT
Our Q1:2024 report is now available. It shows that household debt rose $184 billion to reach $17.69 trillion. Delinquencies were up across debt types.
Report >>
Interactive charts >>
QUARTERLY REPORT ON HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT
Household debt reaches $17.5 trillion in fourth quarter of 2023; Delinquency rates on most types of debt rise.
Q4 Report (pdf) >>>
Interactive charts >>>
Econ and Finance PhD students: Apply now for our paid summer internship program.
Further your dissertation research, interact with New York Fed economists, and obtain feedback on your work.
Note the March 18 deadline.
Application details are here>>
Applications for Research Analyst positions with a summer 2025 start date are now being accepted. In the video clip below, a few RAs share thoughts on their experience.
The application deadline is October 1; learn more and apply:
@econ_ra
SCE HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SURVEY
Median monthly household spending growth increased to 7.8 percent year over year in April, up from 5.1 percent in December.
Responding to strong interest, we will be publishing updates of the index of global
#supplychain
pressure that debuted on
@LibertyStEcon
. Look for the
#GSCPI
monthly beginning May 18.
+ Media advisory:
Debut blog (1/4/22):
In Staff Reports:
The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**
By Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, Marco Del Negro, and Albert Queralto
Revised October 2022
#rstar
#rdoublestar
#AMEC
The median reported year-over-year increase in monthly nominal household spending rose from 7.8% in April to 9.0% in August, its fifth consecutive increase since December 2020 and its highest reading since the series’ inception in December 2014.