NY Fed Research @NYFedResearch Twitter profile

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

1 year

Estimating HANK for Central Banks By Sushant Acharya, William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Shlok Goyal, Ethan Matlin, Donggyu Lee, Reca Sarfati, and Sikata Sengupta >>> #AMEC

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

In Staff Reports: The Dollar’s Imperial Circle By Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, Serra Pelin, and Jon Turek >>>

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

Our #AMEC economists share the latest forecasts for GDP growth, core PCE inflation, and the real natural rate of interest generated by the New York Fed's DSGE model.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

1 year

We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest (r-star), trend growth, and the output gap for the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area through 2023:Q2 using the Holston-Laubach-Williams (“HLW”) model. #AMEC Charts and replication code: >>

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

. @Columbia and the New York Fed ( #AMEC ) are jointly hosting a conference in honor of Guillermo Calvo—with sessions at both institutions. Feb 22-24 Program and registration:

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

JOIN US VIRTUALLY on May 13 ---- Climate Change: Implications for Macroeconomics --- Open to the public and the media. RSVP for the livestream link. Agenda: #AMEC #AMECSymposium #EconTwitter #climatechange

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@NYFedResearch

7 months

Monetary Policy across Inflation Regimes By Valeria Gargiulo, Christian Matthes, and Katerina Petrova >>> #AMEC

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@NYFedResearch

3 years

We’re excited to launch AMEC, a research center devoted to advancing the fields of macroeconomics and applied econometrics. Check out our hub to learn more about the affiliated economists, their research interests, tools and models, and events. #AMECenter

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

3 months

Richard Crump ( @nyfedresearch ) and coauthors introduce a suite of formal and visual tools based on #binscatter plots to restore, and in some dimensions surpass, the classical scatter plot. + Python, R, and Stata code

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Panel discussion on fast #payments and cross-border payments considered the significant innovation that is possible without #blockchain technology. Ross Leckow ( @BIS_org ), David Ornstein ( @batonsystems ), Scott Shay (Signature Bank), and Ryan Zagone ( @Wise ) comprised the panel.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

4 years

Ozge Akinci and Marco Del Negro have accepted research appointments at @CEPR_org ; Akinci will be a research affiliate in the international macroeconomics and finance program and Del Negro will be a research fellow in the monetary economics and fluctuations program.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Ivan Werning ( @MITEcon ) has joined the list of presenters at #AMEC ’s upcoming symposium on “Climate Change: Implication for Macroeconomics” (May 13). RSVP to join the livestream of the virtual event, which is open to the public and media.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

5 months

Micro Responses to Macro Shocks By Martín Almuzara and Víctor Sancibrián >>> #AMEC

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

5 months

The Global Credit Cycle By Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias >>>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

5 years

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast is out: Q2 2019 → 1.0% Q3 2019 → 1.3%

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@NYFedResearch

3 years

Short- and medium-term inflation expectations rose to new series highs of 5.2 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, according to the August Survey of Consumer Expectations.

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@NYFedResearch

5 months

International Banking and Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Global Liquidity, Regulation, and Implications By Claudia M. Buch and Linda S. Goldberg >>>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

3 months

Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time By Marco Cipriani, Thomas M. Eisenbach, and Anna Kovner >>>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

3 years

We hosted leading researchers to explore the topic of heterogeneity in macroeconomics at our first #AMEC symposium. Two @LibertyStEcon posts this week capture the discussion. 1 of 2 -->

The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Inequality - Liberty Street Economics

How does accounting for households’ heterogeneity—and in particular inequality in income and wealth—change our approach to macroeconomics? What are the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on...

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 months

The latest from @LibertyStEcon On the Distributional Effects of Inflation and Inflation Stabilization By Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula #AMEC

On the Distributional Effects of Inflation and Inflation Stabilization - Liberty Street Economics

A look at the distributional effects of inflation and inflation stabilization using a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model.

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

4 years

Each year, the New York Fed hires exceptional college graduates for our two-year research analyst program. Applications for positions with a summer 2021 start date are open. Learn more here:

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

The Bitcoin-Macro Disconnect By Gianluca Benigno and Carlo Rosa >>>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

4 years

Using evidence from the 1918 flu, Correia, Luck, and Verner find that measures such as social distancing reduce the mortality and severity of a pandemic, and also benefit the economic recovery.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

6 months

Are you an Economics or Finance PhD student? Apply for our 2024 paid summer internship program. In this role, you can further your dissertation research, interact with New York Fed economists, and obtain feedback on your work. Details here:

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

In opening remarks, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard described how many central banks around the world “have pivoted monetary policy strongly” to stall inflation, with adjustment happening quickly in some sectors and lagging in others. Full remarks:

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

9 years

Liquidity in the credit default swap market has deteriorated. #nyfedsnap

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

At the Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance today, Oleg Itskhoki ( @UCLA ) shared a framework for thinking about how sanctions and asset freezes affect exchange rate dynamics. Agenda:

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

7 months

The New York Fed DSGE Model: A Post-Covid Assessment By Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, Ramya Nallamotu, and Brian Pacula >>> #AMEC

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Banks' Balance-Sheet Costs, Monetary Policy, and the ON RRP By Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, and Gabriele La Spada >>>

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@NYFedResearch

1 year

Today marks the resumption of regular releases of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast. We discuss the model’s new features, estimates of current quarter GDP growth, and performance during the pandemic period on @LibertyStEcon :

Reintroducing the New York Fed Staff Nowcast - Liberty Street Economics

This post introduces a more robust version of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast model that better handles data volatility. It was suspended in September 2021 due to unprecedented fluctuations during the...

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations both declined sharply in July, to 6.2% and 3.2% from 6.8% and 3.6% in June, respectively.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations continued their steep declines: the one-year measure fell to 5.7% in August from 6.2% in July, while the three-year measure fell to 2.8% from 3.2%. Expectations also fell at the five-year horizon.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

4 years

New staff study: Akinci, Benigno, Del Negro, and Queralto introduce the concept of the financial stability real interest rate, r**.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

4 years

Share of permanent job losers continues to rise.

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@NYFedResearch

4 years

Acharya and Dogra use a stylized HANK model (which they dub a "PRANK") to disentangle how heterogeneity among households might affect aggregate economic outcomes.

Understanding Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Models: Insights from a PRANK - Liberty Street...

To shed light on the macroeconomic consequences of heterogeneity, Acharya and Dogra develop a stylized HANK model that contains key features present in more complicated HANK models.

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

How Abundant Are Reserves? Evidence from the Wholesale Payment System By Gara Afonso, Darrell Duffie, Lorenzo Rigon, and Hyun Song Shin >>>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

The four sessions will shed light on how economists and policymakers are thinking about #climatechange . @DrDaronAcemoglu , @TDeryugina , @UncertainLars , Solomon Hsiang, @piazzesi , @HansbergRossi , @jimstockmetrics , and @IvanWerning are lined up to speak.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Regular publication of the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index starts today. Find charts, brief commentary, and data for download on the New York Fed’s website. CMDI: Blog analysis: #CMDI

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

6 years

We're now sharing estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, for the United States and other advanced economies. Download data through 2018:Q2 here:

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

4 years

The coronavirus shock looks more like a natural disaster than a cyclical downturn in terms of jobless claims data, our @LibertyStEcon authors argue.

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

QUARTERLY REPORT ON HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT Our 2022:Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report has just been released. Interactive Charts: PDF:

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Global #supplychain pressures declined in June, according to the latest estimates of our Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. See commentary and data on our #AMEC hub:

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Many thanks to the speakers and organizers who made today’s #AMEC event possible. @hafrouzi , @XJaravel , @HannoLustig , @jensqu4r3d , @umalmend , Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, @AngelUbide , @marcodelnegro , Keshav Dogra, Nina Boyarchenko, and Argia Sbordone.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

The average lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job (their “reservation wage”) rose to $72,873 in July from $68,954 a year ago. The increase was most pronounced for respondents under age 45, college graduates, and men.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.4 percentage points to 12.2% in August, its highest reading since May 2020. This increase was broad based across demographic groups.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

4 years

New @LibertyStEcon post discusses the severe liquidity strains that arose in the repo market related to the coronavirus pandemic and the Fed's actions aimed at reducing market pressures.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

The August Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity fell sharply in New York State. The headline general business conditions index plunged 42 points to -31.3. Web: PDF:

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

Our #AMEC economists share the latest forecasts for GDP growth, core PCE inflation, and the real natural rate of interest generated by the New York Fed's DSGE model. Liberty Street Economics >>> AMEC >>>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

New #DSGE analysis helps distinguish the drivers of #inflation and attributes much of the recent inflation surge to a large (and persistent) cost-push shock in 2021:Q2. #AMEC ➡️

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Our special issue leads with an examination of dysfunction in the corporate bond market at the onset of the pandemic and the impact of credit facilities established to help restore market functioning. #EPR This article: Full issue:

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Global supply chain pressures decreased in August, continuing the easing observed over the past three months. #GSCPI #AMEC #supplychain Chart and data for download>>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

4 years

New post shares the latest economic forecasts generated by the New York Fed’s DSGE model, considering three #COVID19 scenarios: a “Temporary Lockdown,” a “Lockdown with Business Cycle Dynamics,” and a “Second Wave.” Link through to new interactive charts.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Results of the November Survey of Consumer Expectations show that inflation expectations decreased in the short, medium, and longer terms to 5.2 percent, 3.0 percent, and 2.3 percent, respectively.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

4 years

When the economy hits sudden headwinds, like the COVID-19 pandemic, conditions can evolve rapidly. A new metric—the Weekly Economic Index—measures real economic activity in real time.

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

1 year

From @LibertyStEcon ** Look for a companion post tomorrow The Post-Pandemic r*

The Post-Pandemic r* - Liberty Street Economics

The debate about the natural rate of interest, or r*, sometimes overlooks the point that there is an entire term structure of r* measures, with short-run estimates capturing current economic condit...

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Mark your calendars Conference on "The Credibility of Government Policies" honoring Guillermo Calvo—with sessions at the New York Fed and Columbia University. Feb 22-24 Program and registration: #AMEC

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

3 years

Path forward should include automatic stabilizers like stimulus checks, tied to economic conditions, Sahm suggests.

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS Inflation expectations increased in the short, medium, and longer terms, according to the October survey.

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@NYFedResearch

3 years

New York Fed President John Williams shares remarks at today’s #AMECSymposium on “Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics: Implications for Policy.”

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

. @UncertainLars noted the challenge of weighting “best guesses” and “potentially bad outcomes” when designing policy to address #climatechange . #AMEC

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

New #AMEC analysis presents the forecast generated by the New York Fed’s DSGE model for September. The outlook compared to June is slightly more pessimistic in terms of inflation, and broadly unchanged in terms of real activity. Liberty Street Economics:

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@NYFedResearch

1 year

R-STAR | HLW ESTIMATION We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest (r-star), trend growth, and the output gap for the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area through 2023:Q1 using the Holston-Laubach-Williams (“HLW”) model. #AMEC >>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

U.S. HOME PRICE CHANGES We’ve posted new data on year-over-year on home price changes through June 2022. Hover over a county for granular data. ➡️ #housingmarket

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

Our #AMEC economists turn again to a DSGE model to understand what different monetary policy approaches can achieve against a backdrop of a flat Phillips curve. #InflationTargeting

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@NYFedResearch

5 years

Student loans overtake mortgages as the largest component of severely derogatory balances.

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@NYFedResearch

5 years

New York Fed research economist Linda Goldberg and Bundesbank VP Claudia Buch set the stage for the conference, spelling out important themes and directions of #IBRN work.

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

We track the year-over-year change in home prices across 1,200 U.S. counties and the United States as a whole. With this month’s update, data range from January 2003 to September 2022. #housingmarket #homeprices

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

In Staff Reports⬇️ Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds By Brandyn Bok, Thomas M. Mertens, and John C. Williams #AMEC

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

Global supply chain pressures increased moderately in November, continuing a trend seen in October, albeit at a lower rate. #GSCPI #AMEC #supplychain >>

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

The latest reading of the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index ( #GSCPI ) shows that supply chain pressures declined in July. #supplychain

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

Jennifer La’O of Columbia University discussed her work arguing that optimal monetary policy should focus on stabilizing a price index that assigns higher weights to industries with “stickier” prices. #AMEC

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

1 year

We have resumed updating our estimates of r-star and related variables following a COVID-related hiatus. Visit our web feature “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest” for charts and downloadable data. #AMEC

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—increased from $72,873 in July to $73,667 in November, the highest reading of the series. Interactive Charts >>>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

CORPORATE BOND MARKET DISTRESS INDEX (CMDI) The CMDI has updated with data through August 2022. The CMDI uses weekly metrics to construct an aggregate index of corporate bond market conditions for both the primary and the secondary markets. >>

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@NYFedResearch

3 years

Gianluca Violante discusses the “long shadow” that recessions cast on unemployment. #AMECSymposium

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@NYFedResearch

5 years

Del Negro and coauthors propose a framework for performing parallel and "online" estimation of DSGE models using sequential Monte Carlo techniques.

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@NYFedResearch

9 months

The Optimal Supply of Central Bank Reserves under Uncertainty By Gara Afonso, Gabriele La Spada, Thomas M. Mertens, and John C. Williams #AMEC >>>

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

Today's post () examining how remote workers have allocated their time saved by not commuting informs a Bloomberg @business report.

Americans Reclaim 60 Million Commuting Hours in Remote-Work Perk

Instead of being stuck in traffic, workers are getting more rest and spending additional time with family.

www.bloomberg.com

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

7 years

The New York Fed has an excellent lending library for staff. We've added new books by Charles R. Morris, Maureen O'Hara, @mehrsabaradaran and @dianabhenriques #libraryshelfieday

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

The Curious Case of the Rise in Deflation Expectations By Olivier Armantier, Gizem Kosar, Jason Somerville, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams >>>>

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@NYFedResearch

1 year

Dealer Capacity and U.S. Treasury Market Functionality By Darrell Duffie, Michael J. Fleming, Frank Keane, Claire Nelson, Or Shachar, and Peter Van Tassel >>>

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

U.S. HOME PRICE CHANGES We’ve posted new data on year-over-year on home price changes through April 2022. Hover over a county for granular data. ➡️

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1 year

One-year-ahead inflation expectations declined sharply to 4.2%, according to the February Survey of Consumer Expectations. Three-year-ahead expectations were unchanged at 2.7%, while five-year-ahead expectations rose to 2.6%. >>>

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@NYFedResearch

8 months

New #AMEC analysis describes the economic forecast generated by the New York Fed's DSGE model for December and its change since September. Interactive charts:

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@NYFedResearch

3 months

QUARTERLY REPORT ON HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT Our Q1:2024 report is now available. It shows that household debt rose $184 billion to reach $17.69 trillion. Delinquencies were up across debt types. Report >> Interactive charts >>

Household Debt and Credit Report

Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. households

www.newyorkfed.org

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@NYFedResearch

7 years

Today we look back at our most popular Liberty Street Economics posts of the year.

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10 months

EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING SURVEY October 2023: The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6.

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@NYFedResearch

1 year

March 2023 SCE Labor Market Survey The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—rose to a new series high of $75,811. Survey results>>> Center for Microeconomic Data >>>

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@NYFedResearch

9 months

We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, and related variables for the United States through 2023:Q3 using the Laubach-Williams (LW) model. Estimates using the HLW model will follow tomorrow. Explore the charts:

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

SCE HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SURVEY Median monthly household spending growth increased to 7.8 percent year over year in April, up from 5.1 percent in December.

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@NYFedResearch

6 years

Our macroeconomists share the code for the New York Fed staff nowcast of GDP growth on GitHub. Learn more on our blog:

Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub - Liberty Street Economics

In April 2016, we unveiled—and began publishing weekly—the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, an estimate of GDP growth using an automated platform for tracking economic conditions in real time. Today we go...

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

Econ and Finance PhD students: Apply now for our paid summer internship program. Further your dissertation research, interact with New York Fed economists, and obtain feedback on your work. Note the March 18 deadline. Application details are here>>

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

In Staff Reports: The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R** By Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, Marco Del Negro, and Albert Queralto Revised October 2022 #rstar #rdoublestar #AMEC

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@NYFedResearch

7 months

QUARTERLY REPORT ON HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT Household debt reaches $17.5 trillion in fourth quarter of 2023; Delinquency rates on most types of debt rise. Q4 Report (pdf) >>> Interactive charts >>>

Household Debt and Credit Report

Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. households

www.newyorkfed.org

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NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

2 years

Responding to strong interest, we will be publishing updates of the index of global #supplychain pressure that debuted on @LibertyStEcon . Look for the #GSCPI monthly beginning May 18. + Media advisory: Debut blog (1/4/22):

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7 years

Our DSGE team is sharing more code in Julia for economic forecasting. Learn more on our blog:

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2 years

The Bank of Japan announced a yield control policy change on Tuesday. Check out a post from our Liberty Street Economics archives on Japan’s experience with yield curve control. #BoJ >>>

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@NYFedResearch

2 years

The median reported year-over-year increase in monthly nominal household spending rose from 7.8% in April to 9.0% in August, its fifth consecutive increase since December 2020 and its highest reading since the series’ inception in December 2014.

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2 years

A paper by Julian di Giovanni ( @nyfedresearch ) and coauthors shaped the discussion of global value chains, supply bottlenecks, and international trade at the 2022 @ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal this week. #ECBForum See the paper here:

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2 years

In Staff Reports: Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve By Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hébert, and Wenhao Li

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