Neelanjan Sircar @NeelanjanSircar Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

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INDIA + POLITICS + DATA.

Joined October 2013

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

A 🧵 introducing the new volume by Sanjoy Chakravorty and me: Colossus: The Anatomy of Delhi. The book seeks to characterize social change, state interactions, and inequalities in the region surrounding Delhi (National Capital Region). Available at:

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

For those keeping score, this is Yogi Adityanath’s former chief secretary.

@ndtv

NDTV

3 years

#JustIn | Anup Chandra Pandey, Retired UP Cadre IAS officer, appointed as Election Commissioner.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Three major misconceptions about the UP elections results. Misconception 1: The BJP won due to a surge in rural areas due to ration benefits. Truth: The BJP maintained its 2017 advantage over SP in urban areas. In rural areas, its 2017 advantage cut in half.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 months

"If Congress wins, it will be because of @dhruv_rathee " We find huge social media usage in the gaons & gullies of UP & discuss its implications. Traditional media's shift to more biased content for survival may have ensured its death. With @AiyarYamini in @the_hindu

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

Stat of day from my last scrape: There are 188 constituencies in which BJP & Cong went head to head (top 2 finishers) in 2019. The BJP won 174 of them for a strike rate of 93% against Cong. In 2014, the BJP's strike rate here was 86%. 2014 wasn't a black swan but a harbinger.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Mason by day, DJ by night. An extraordinary story. Here's hoping that Mohammad Amin (aka DJ Bulbul) gets the recognition he deserves. He is the man who remixed the catchy "Khela Hobe" that became TMC's anthem and went viral during election season.

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bengal polls: রাজমিস্ত্রি থেকে ডিজে, আমিন এখন ‘খেলা হবে’ দাদা

তা দিয়েই তারাপীঠের নিমা পাখুড়িয়া গ্রামের খড়ের ছাউনি দেওয়া মাটির ঘরে বসে আমিন তৈরি করেন নানা জনপ্রিয় গানের রিমিক্স।

www.anandabazar.com

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Didi becomes the most important opposition leader in India. Mamata’s politics shows how the opposition can construct a narrative around gender & welfare to counteract Hindu-Muslim polarization. This is a problem for BJP at the national level. My piece.

The Bengal model to counter the BJP

As our polity returns from election mode to the ugly realities of an India suffering a humanitarian tragedy of epic proportions, our national politics is being remade. While the BJP still has to be...

www.hindustantimes.com

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

Many people do not realize that India's coronavirus mortality rate is NOT low -- as they confuse crude fatality rates with age-adjusted fatality rates. My colleague, Partha Mukhopadhyay, explains the numbers in detail (as only he can).

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Is India’s Covid-19 death rate higher than Italy’s?

The country’s aggregate case fatality ratio is low because India has more young patients than other countries, who are not expected to die. However, in India, they are dying at a rate much higher...

www.hindustantimes.com

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 months

Too early to tell, but also holy ****

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

India is seeing unprecedented levels of concentration of economic wealth. I write about the emerging new pattern of business-politics relations today in "The Big Picture" in @htTweets . Link (Gated):

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

Those of us who watch sports know the team is in deep trouble when the manager/coach starts blaming the players!

@ShekharGupta

Shekhar Gupta

4 years

Modi lashes out at top officials — ‘should have been better prepared’ to handle 2nd Covid wave Moushumi Das Gupta @dgupta_moushumi reports #ThePrintGovt

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Income inequality in India isn't just bc of "capitalism" but a model in which corporates have say in policy & can consolidate wealth. This makes India look more like Russia, & more unequal than US or Japan/China. My article in the year-end Seminar issue:

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

My field observations: 1. Women and welfare dominate 2. Modi not a positive (may have been a negative) 3. BJP needs to clean up its language. A lot of comments were openly misogynistic. That hurt. .

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In Bengal, the X factor — women and welfare

Irrespective of the outcome, the West Bengal election signals a major shift in the role of women in electoral politics. Privately, psephologists and party workers suggest that the difference in...

www.hindustantimes.com

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

"The sheer force of media technology and its purposing for harassment and silencing critics and the Muslim community have made it an incredibly efficient form of state-sponsored 'violence.'" My long read on disinformation in India & democratic breakdown.

Disinformation: A New Type of State-Sponsored Violence

While attempts by the ruling party to control the media and the messaging are not new in India, what we see now is the use of new technology to ‘curate’ and exercise ‘centralised control’ to spread...

www.theindiaforum.in

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

Back from the field. I want to explore the misconception that in Bengal the "bhadralok" (upper class gentle folk) support TMC and the poor "subaltern" classes support BJP. In fact, the opposite is true. Some observations below. (1/n)

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Misconception 2: The BJP won a more polarized vote and won where Muslims were less numerous Truth: The BJP had its biggest drops in strike rate from 2017 to 2022 in the final 3 phases, which have less Muslims than the first 2 phases.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

11 months

The BJP sweep in the Hindi heartland came as a surprise topollsters and pundits. One of the things we are seeing in both data and fieldwork is a shift of female voters to the BJP. In @htTweets , I discuss Modi, welfarism, and the female voter -- with an eye to election results.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 months

According to Census 2011, there are approx 172 million Muslims in India. Three states, Bihar, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, host nearly half of India's Muslims (80.7 million Muslims). In each of these states, Muslims disproportionately vote for a party other than Congress.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 months

We find 44% of poor (no vehicle) have uncomfortable homes in heat, & 40% of more well-off (w vehicle) need AC/cooler to make home comfortable Consequences for coping with heat & future energy consumption are immense. Collab btw Centre for Rapid Insights @Artha__Global @htTweets

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

Spoke to police as peaceful protestors were being detained. Say they are with us and Modi/Shah are wrong but are being forced. Delhi Police is taking orders from Home Ministry evidently.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Misconception 3: The BSP transferred vote to BJP, so it was able to pull through in a bipolar contest Truth: (if you understand regressions) Controlling for 2017 vote shares for BJP/SP, a higher 2017 BSP vote share meant more votes for SP. This is most pronounced in phase 6 & 7.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

BJP has lost ground in J&K. In 2014: 83 assembly constituencies (46 Kashmir/37 Jammu) & BJP won 25 (30.1%) 2019 DDC elections: Tilted against Kashmir (140 seats in each of Jammu/Kashmir - 280 total), BJP has won 75 (26.7%). Lackluster perf in Jammu.

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Jammu and Kashmir DDC Election Results 2020 Highlights: J&K administration trying to ‘collect’...

Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) DDC Election Results 2020 Highlights: Seven political parties, including the NC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), contested the polls in an alliance, under the banner of...

indianexpress.com

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 months

In North India, the Constitution has again entered mass politics. It's no longer about who wins or loses, something bigger is at stake. And the voters we spoke to in UP understood this well. My piece w @AiyarYamini in @TheHinduComment

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Something we saw throughout the campaign. The BJP IT Cell (presumably w directions from Delhi) keeps on hurting Bengal BJP. There is definitely post-poll violence, presumably a lot against the BJP. But in Bengal, all of this fake news stuff is hurting Bengal BJP's credibility.

@AbhroBanerjee1

Abhro Banerjee

@AbhroBanerjee1

3 years

I am Abhro Banerjee, living and hale and hearty and around 1,300 km away from Sitalkuchi. BJP IT Cell is now claiming I am Manik Moitra and died in Sitalkuchi. Please don't believe these fake posts and please don't worry. I repeat: I am (still) alive

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4 years

You declare victory over COVID, allow Kumbh Mela to take place a year early, hold large electoral rallies with reckless abandon. And then COVID spreads everywhere, & there is no remorse. Now you beg @POTUS and America to bail you out. Do you see why this is a hard sell?

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

"When one global market is stressed, a local one might find its feet." From Hisar, I discuss how the interplay between social media, the COVID pandemic, and emerging markets is generating a market for food that few had access to before in the hinterland.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

Why Bengal Matters. Rather than pandering to the "Hindu vote" against the BJP, the TMC has sought to create a "progressive" alternative to BJP. No predictions, but if TMC can pull it off, it will become a template for a genuine opposition. My piece.

Why the battle of Bengal matters

The BJP’s rise is remarkable. If the TMC still wins, it will offer a template on how to challenge a hegemon

www.hindustantimes.com

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

A careful analytical case for a BJP sweep in West Bengal by @sajjanjnu . He's among the most talented academic field researchers & impartial, & he visited all 294 constituencies! May 2 will tell us if he's right or wrong, but you must take it seriously.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

After a historic election, as academics we have much to learn about the Indian voter. It's late here, and the last few days have been a blur of data, writing & TV appearances. I've been studying the Indian voter for the last few years, and here are some initial thoughts (1/n)

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

Is this a Whatsapp election in India? Here's something to think about. According to Pew, only 24% of Indians have a smartphone & many don't use Whatsapp as a primary source of information. In recent survey work in UP (poorer, more rural), only 20% of my sample have smartphones.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

2 years

India has historically been characterized by a striking lack of "religious voting," but this may be changing. To understand why, I appeal to the role of spatial demography & state control in constructing religious voting - with a focus on recent elections in Assam & West Bengal.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

6 years

Why should the BJP be worried after these elections? I run the data to show that what started as farmer anger has spread beyond rural areas to more general anger against the BJP in the Hindi belt. This MATTERS for 2019.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

Seeing farmer protests from the narrow lens of agricultural policy is missing the point. See them in the context of the current political moment - economic centralization, questionable political financing, & stifling opposition. My piece for @htTweets

The political economy driving farm protests

The concentration of political and economic power has made democratic contestation challenging. Citizens are finding other methods

www.hindustantimes.com

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

7 years

I work on elections. Whether true or not, even a lot of ordinary citizens are raising EVM fraud concerns. This threatens the legitimacy of democratic elections. The ECI should consider paper ballots in RANDOMLY selected polling booths.

@yadavakhilesh

Akhilesh Yadav

7 years

BJP has only won 15% seats in Ballot paper areas and 46% in EVM areas.

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3 years

None of us have done justice theoretically or empirically to gender in Bengal. Not just about benefits. Prominent displays of women in positions of political power. Open discussion of misogyny even in the villages I visited. Not just voting, there is political/social change.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

What happened to all of the people who said that South Asians (Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis) are less susceptible to coronavirus?

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

7 years

Big loser of this election is the Election Commission. Every fourth voter I spoke to in Gujarat complained about EVMs. Now exit polls conducted during a live election?! This is a freaking mess...they need to do something to restore faith!

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

The average Indian citizen views the bureaucracy, state, and Constitution as hindrances to its aspirations and political will. It has elected a government at the Centre consistent with these views. #Kashmir #Article370

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

6 years

This is probably the best UP analysis I've seen so far (actually digging into constituency-wise numbers). Always good to read my good friend @kranjanashish during elections!

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Best evening spot in Delhi.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

1 year

How will delimitation in India and the re-allocation of Lok Sabha seats affect fiscal centralization and political parties? Some of my thoughts today in @DeccanHerald .

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

6 years

You mean the majority feels the minority is safe? OK, no problem then. 😁

@timesofindia

The Times Of India

6 years

#TimesMegaPoll | 59.41% Indians say minorities not insecure under NDA government Read more about it here:

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Don't underestimate the political impact of the current moment in India. It's not about who got us in this mess, it's about who is helping us on the ground.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Punjab & BJP victories in the 4 states aren't separate events. Taken together, there are lessons. The emerging politics shows the power of centralization & welfarism, heralding a breakdown of social engineering through caste intermediaries. My piece w @beejoshi & @Kranjanashish

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

This is amazing! @hasanminhaj was honored for his comedy at Modi's rally in Houston because he is a successful Indian-American, but he was barred because he has been critical of Modi. Also a lot of hilarious dialogue.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 months

Mobile phone users aged 18-30 use YouTube as a primary news source 50% more than TV/newspapers. Moreover, diverse media provides opportunities for gender independence. The future of traditional media is grim. New piece from @Artha__Global (Centre for Rapid Insights) @htTweets

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

This is why this is a strange judgment. Other than a nod to the "illegality" of the demolition, this seems to generate incentives for Hindus to take down mosques and resettle. That can't be good -- no matter what you believe in.

@Roshanjnu

Roshan Kishore

5 years

prima facie it looks like events of 6 December 1992 were crucial in the title dispute being settled today it way it has been. Had the mosque not been demolished, would the court would have ordered its demolition to award the land for Ram Mandir? #AYODHYAVERDICT

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 months

Nearly half of all households in India faced heat-induced illness in May, vast majority more than 5 days This disproportionately affects thepoor. I discuss implications and policy: Introducing collab btw Centre for Rapid Insights @Artha__Global @htTweets

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Protest from farmers or state chief ministers is the only thing forcing introspection. Modi backtracking on poor vaccine policy today is due to popular protest. Instead of blaming protesters, maybe it's better to work for fair, democratic, informed decision-making processes.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

Here, I analyze the 2019 election results by putting forth a theory of "vishwas" (belief) in Indian politics. I argue that we must understand "vishwas", as opposed to accountability, ideology, party system, etc., to make sense of the BJP/Modi sweep.

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The politics of vishwas: political mobilization in the 2019 national election

In this article, I develop a model of the politics of vishwas (trust/belief). This is a form of personal politics in which voters prefer to centralize political power in a strong leader, and trust ...

www.tandfonline.com

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

6 years

UP matters a whole lot in these elections. While early field reports indicate a close battle between BJP & the gatbandhan, I use the numbers to show the real fight is from phase 4 onward. We'll have to wait to see what UP holds for Modi.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Now you know why India was demoted to an “electoral autocracy”

@pooja_news

Pooja Mehta

3 years

#BigBreaking | West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee arrives at CBI office at Nizam Palace, Kolkata after two of her cabinet ministers Firhad Hakim & Subrata Mukherjee & MLA Madan Mitra were arrested by CBI in connection with Narada case.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

The #ExitPoll tamasha is about to begin. Why do they sometimes go wrong? How should you interpret it? A small 🧵 on what stats tells us. (As an aside, I know some pollsters well, and I find them honest and hardworking. No blame. Surveying is hard to do!)

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

2 years

Finally made it back to Kolkata!

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Excellent paper demonstrating that short afternoon naps, not more sleep at night, increase productivity of the urban poor. This is something Naaru the shopkeeper in Kolkata has been claiming for years (much to my frustration). Now science backs him up. Thanks @raogautam !

@QJEHarvard

QJE

3 years

Recently accepted by #QJE , “The Economic Consequences of Increasing Sleep among the Urban Poor,” by Bessone ( @BessoneTepedino ), Rao ( @raogautam ), Schilbach ( @FrankSchilbach ), Schofield ( @h_schof ), and Toma ( @mattietoma ):

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@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

The newly created UT of Ladakh includes the districts of Leh and Kargil. According to the 2011 Census, it has a Muslim population of 46.4%. Take a look at the video our young charismatic MP has tweeted, calling it a "celebration all across Ladakh." Who is missing?

@jtnladakh

Jamyang Tsering Namgyal

5 years

Wave of celebration all across Ladakh. #Articles370 #KashmirWelcomesChange #KashmirWithModi #LadakhWelcomesChange

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Neelanjan Sircar

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5 months

Turnout mattered in 2024. How? 🧵 Take 6 key states: Bihar, Gujarat, MP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, UP. Why? (1) Gave 70% of BJP seats in 2014 & 60% of seats in 2019 (180 seats in 2019) (2) Crucial to 2014 Modi Wave. Lower turnout states in India w big turnout increases in 2014

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

In 2019, after muzzling Kashmir, I argued India was in the throes of democratic backsliding. Many said I was overreacting. My argument: It's not the issue, it's methods used & centralization of power. Today Freedom House demoted India to "partly free".

The interplay between Kashmir and India’s democratic project | Analysis

The decision-making process reflects both centralisation of power and unilateralism

www.hindustantimes.com

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

As the credibility of India’s data is compromised, so is the credibility of the Indian state to enact effective policy. My piece w Devesh Kapur on the irrevocable damage that will be done to the last vestiges of India’s data system and the Census by NPR.

The new challenge for Census 2021

The CAA-NPR-NRC controversy may deter citizens from offering authentic information

www.hindustantimes.com

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

When a country's institutions have lost all legitimacy, the police are often called in to use unconscionable force. When a country's institutions have lost all legitimacy, the people will not stop resisting. #JamiaProtest #JamiaProtestsCAB #CABPolitics

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

India may be on the precipice of a democratic breakdown. It is often the masses that start the downfall -- by developing anti-democratic preferences. After the Kashmir orders, I make the case by looking at survey data and democratic theory in @htTweets .

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

7 months

I have been faculty at @CPR_India since 2015, and in that time Yamini has become a close friend & research collaborator. She fought to keep serious research alive in India. I will be eternally grateful for her support in opening new worlds of scholarship for my colleagues & me.

@AiyarYamini

Yamini Aiyar

7 months

An absolute privilege to have lead & fought for this remarkable institution. CPR's fierce intellectual independence and democratic spirit have enriched me enormously. Delighted that @CPR_India leadership will now be in the very capable hands of my wonderful colleague Srinivas.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Farm laws repealed! Whether one supports the laws or not, this shows the farmers were right to use protest instead of parliamentary means to bargain with the government. Note my piece from Jan 2021.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

A tragedy in the making. My piece on what the battle between Mamata Banerjee and Suvendu Adhikari in Nandigram says about the politics of West Bengal.

What the battle of Nandigram says about Bengal’s politics

Fighting for his political life, Suvendu Adhikari has turned to Hindu-Muslim polarisation. Whether this will be enough to dent Mamata Banerjee’s appeal is to be seen

www.hindustantimes.com

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

What do Marathis and Bengalis have in common? Ans: Boring weddings. Exciting politics.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

I look at the numbers characterizing the BJP's performance and provide some thoughts on the reasons for Modi's extraordinary electoral appeal today in @htTweets .

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

TMC has now crossed majority mark on ECI site (still just leads) and holding a massive 12 percentage point lead over BJP. I saw the TMC winning comfortably, but if this holds, it's extraordinary!

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

2 years

The breadth and rigor of academic and policy research that can only be done at a place like the Centre for Policy Research... Looking forward to #CPRDialogues2022 !

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

As PM Modi announces #CoronavirusLockdown for 21 days, let's assess what we know & don't, & what constitutes appropriate action. Those of us that work w data (that includes me) have been disingenuous. Our data projections are VERY bad & it may lead to bad policy. 1/n

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Teaching stats is the fine art of demonstrating to students that they will never be able to do what they hoped they would be able to do when the semester started.

@xkcd

Randall Munroe

3 years

Confounding Variables

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 months

The exit polls were a disaster this time. Where did they go wrong and what really happened? My numbers piece for @htTweets on how the spatial pattern of support changed for the BJP in 2024:

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

WARNING: Don't over-interpret survey data on castes & jatis. The exit/post poll data aren't constructed for this purpose (samples aren't randomized at this level) Also I haven't seen any uncertainty calculations on estimates (a function of both sample size & sample uncertainty)

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

1 year

Fascinating piece by @resuf_ahmed and @FeyaadAllie showing prima facie evidence that Bharat Jodo Yatra may have mattered in this election.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

I'm glad you are enjoying the advanced copy! This is a labor of love, 8 years in the making. I moved to Delhi full-time in 2015, and this was a wonderful way to learn about my city. For the general public, the book releases at the end of the month:

Colossus : The Anatomy of Delhi: 15 (South Asia in the Social Sciences, Series Number 15)

The National Capital Region of Delhi is a diverse and unequal space. Its more than 30 million people are sharply differentiated by economic class, religion and caste, education, language, and...

@AkshayMangla

Akshay Mangla｜अक्षय मंगला

3 years

Delighted to get my hands on this new volume by @NeelanjanSircar and Sanjoy Chakravorty, on Delhi's urban development and spatial inequalities. This vast and complex sociopolitical landscape is unpacked by a fabulous set of authors. Dilli kya hai? Read and find out!

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

Read this by @ShoaibDaniyal ! It's a terrible look for Indian data collection. To those arguing back, given how much COVID has spread, do you think it's credible that 60% of onset in a 3-day period comes from 1 masjid event w 9k people?

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Explained: Sampling bias drove sensationalist reporting around Tablighi coronavirus cases

The large proportion of Tablighi positives is simply due to the large number of people who were tested from the event, even as overall testing remains low.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

6 years

In case you are wondering, this proliferation of great data work around the election is a direct result of the clean, useable data across elections being put out by @TCPD_Ashoka for the public. They have made a huge impact on the quality of research and reporting on elections.

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

I am an academic and I call for a free Palestine and an end to the Israeli state's apartheid. This is integral to both my world view and my scholarship. Pass it on.

@pallaviraghava1

Pallavi Raghavan

@pallaviraghava1

3 years

I am an academic and I call for a free Palestine and an end to the Israeli state's apartheid. This is integral to both my world view and my scholarship. Pass it on.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

As you extend testing you should move from riskiest populations to less risky (due to more tests). But if you chase hotspots & wait until things are bad to test, you get weird data. Tests vs Cases in India & S. Korea (from ). Implications below.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

I'm reminded of something I heard Adam Przeworski say at a conference. "Governments fall when the police are no longer willing to shoot."

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

The BJP has built an electoral juggernaut & PM Modi is hugely popular, so why didn't it have the credibility for agricultural reforms? Rather than tactical errors, I argue the roots lie in its political centralization in this short piece. Online (Gated):

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

Continuing my discussion of Indian COVID data. We are coming upon 4 weeks of lockdown in India, and the rate of reported new infections today is the highest we've seen so far (graph courtesy of ). What's going on?

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

Supposedly the goal is a "Hindu rashtra," but no one knows what that means. Instead slapdash decision making by Modi/Shah have unleashed an incoherent muddle of laws with only one aim -- to isolate India's Muslim community. My year-end piece for @htTweets

Is the BJP government seeking to create a Hindu rashtra — by jugaad?

The moves have not been carefully thought through. They will sharpen contradictions within the system

www.hindustantimes.com

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@NeelanjanSircar

Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

7 years

My first column for @htTweets . I've agreed to a regular column on Indian political, economic, social data. This week: Why you should care about rising criminality and wealth among MPs

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

2 years

The best dish I’ve had in ages. Something special going on at Siena Cafe in Kolkata.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

6 years

If it rains so much in Mumbai, why is there so much difficulty in getting running water? I review Lisa Björkman's extraordinary book on the politics of water distribution in Mumbai. Extraordinarily rich detail and a must read.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

My @epw_in piece analyzing the puzzling disjuncture between the BJP's electoral performance in national and state elections -- building upon my arguments of political attribution of welfare delivery to Modi. As always, I look forward to your comments.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

Moreover, given the narrative that the mainstream parties had been discredited, the fact the "Gupkar alliance" parties have won 110 seats in stilted elections is quite amazing. I think these results will make the BJP hesitant to put any state/UT-level control back in the region.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

6 years

In 2014, 25% of BJP's seats came from UP. Now SP & BSP have joined forces to defeat BJP. What does this mean for the BJP's chances in UP in 2019? I analyze by taking a look back in history (little known fact -- coalitions often do better than the sum of their individual parties)

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

When voters feel attached to a party or a leader, they find reasons to support them. Modi is a case in point. Voters like him and have variously supported him for development, jobs, standing up to terrorism. They don't support Modi bc of issues; it's the other way around. (4/n)

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

1 year

Quite crazy that the US Supreme Court invokes "equality" while banning Harvard from using race as a factor in admissions, while freely allowing Harvard to use who your father was as a factor in admissions.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

1 year

How overt attempts attempts at Hindu-Muslim polarization were defeated in Karnataka, and its implications for political opposition. My piece for @htTweets

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

As an extra twist of the knife, the elections in and around Kolkata were held from phases 3 to 8 -- just to make sure the blast of Election Commission's criminal irresponsibility lasted as long as possible.

@SankarshanT

Sankarshan Thakur

4 years

Reports say every second person testing in #Calcutta is positive. That can’t possibly have anything to do with campaign crowding, can it?

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@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

I have deep respect for all of the scholars here, but it's an interesting comment on the Indian academic space: A jury for "social sciences" has only economists. Would it be surprising if an economist were chosen? Would there be credibility if a non-economist were chosen?

@InfosysPrize

Infosys Prize

4 years

The ‘new normal’ of Infosys Prize jury meetings during unprecedented times @kaushikcbasu @elianalaferrara @AshwDeshpande

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

I'm guest editing a series in India in Transition ( @CASIPenn ) on increasing political and economic centralization in India. First, we look at the historical antecedents of the federalism debate & how the current centralization fits in by @louisetillin .

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

Lodhi Garden tonight. As beautiful as ever. A public space where people can interact irrespective of religion or caste. A space that celebrates the complex history of India.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

As people grapple with the "demotion" of Delhi's government, a friendly reminder. We should have understood what was on the cards from how the abrogation of Article 370 took place...& its implications for centralization of power & democratic breakdown.

The interplay between Kashmir and India’s democratic project | Analysis

The decision-making process reflects both centralisation of power and unilateralism

www.hindustantimes.com

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

3 years

Female Labor Force % dropped from 32% (2005) to 21% (2019), lowest in S. Asia Why the drop? In a new paper, @DeepaboliC & I argue "expectations" for HH duties means that women prefer flexible hours near home (hard to find as India urbanizes). Summary:

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

4 years

In case you've been living under a rock, you should know @TCPD_Ashoka has become an indispensable source for all things Indian political data. It's a huge public service. They continue the goodwill with this timely database on Parliamentary Questions.

@TCPD_Ashoka

TCPD

4 years

@TCPD_Ashoka announces the release of Parliamentary Questions raised in the Lok Sabha between 1999 and 2019 through its Question Hour data portal - . Great and timely work by @mindbhogaling ! @gilkumar @NeelanjanSircar @DrSYQuraishi @AshokaUniv

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

Happy Ashtami! Some snaps from my favorite pandal this year -- Rajdanga Naba Uday Sangha, as beautiful as it is meaningful. It's a protest against the NRC which shows citizens being batted around like shuttlecocks by the government.

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Neelanjan Sircar

@NeelanjanSircar

5 years

A very helpful piece by @MilanV . This is the first careful piece I've seen trying explain Modi magic in the face of a weak economy.

Opinion | If it’s ‘the economy, stupid,’ why did Modi win?

The question of leadership may have diverted attention away from the state of the economy, but Modi’s honeymoon will be short-lived.

www.washingtonpost.com

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