Political Analyst; roaming researcher; always on the ground since 2010; JNV Muzaffarpur+Khammam; BA,MA,M.Phil, Ph.D
@JNU
, CPS; aspiring armchair intellectual
Interested in understanding the complex and contrasting trends in the Dalit political landscape in India? To know more, grab your copy of
#MayaModiAzad
: Dalit Politics in the Time of Hindutva by
#SudhaPai
and
#SajjanKumar
from the nearest bookstore or
More than half the seats BJP won in Bengal are SC-ST seats. However, the argument goes: Bhadraloks didn't and won't vote for BJP & there is no subaltern Hindutva. So, no one voted for the BJP except 38% zombies who descended from nowhere. TMC is on the mission to weed them out.
2024: ON CHANDRABABU NAIDU & NITISH KUMAR FACTOR
1. The very talk of TDP and JD(U) switching over to the INDI Alliance is a far stretched narrative which doesn’t resonate with the realistic scenario.
The familiar trope of equating RSS with ISIS by Irfan Habib or Salman Khurshid and others is more an attempt to assign respectability to Islamism than demonising the Hindutva.
Exit Poll Report. Gives the expected outcome seat wise.
BJP:173-192;TMC:64-88;LF+:7-12There are 2 mistakes in the report: one, mentions total tally of 291 seats rather than 292 which went to poll. Two, the seat tally of BJP is one less than the actual one.
Here comes the comprehensive report on Bengal: CONFIRMED SEATS:BJP-160,
TMC-70,LF alliance-12,
CLOSE CONTEST SEATS :BJPvsTMC-39, Triangular-8, TMCvsBJP-5
For detail read the report. Click the link and download the same.
A state where political rivals are seen as enemy, where a person's worth is measured by his/her party/ ideological identification will always normalise violence against the opponents.
The common thread from the verdict in Uttar Pradesh and Odisha, despite one going against the BJP and other rewarding the saffron party is one: keep bureaucracy and police in check and give elected MPs and MLAs real power to serve the people.
Analysing the rise of BJP in Hindi Heartland is pure research which many Bong intellectuals are also passionate about. Doing the same in Bengal, to them, becomes a part of BJP's agenda setting. So much exceptionalism.
CSDS data on gender based vote to parties in Bengal. It also, reveals the community wise voting pattern, for UC, OBCs, Dalits, Adivasis and the Minorities. BJP's lead is maximum among Dalits.
3/1. Three, both LJP’s Chirag Paswan in Bihar and Jan Sena’s Pawan Kalyan are big supporter of BJP leadership and have stated unambiguously that they will stand by the NDA like Hanuman. This sets the tone for other NDA partners like JD(U) in Bihar and TDP in Andra Pradesh.
6.Both Nitish & Naidu, have sever limitations as they can neither lead to the formation of opposition government, nor could they carry on other NDA allies (JanSena and LJP). Hence, there is no tangible basis to the speculation that Naidu and Nitish may play for the BJP led govt.
3/2. TDP in particular wouldn’t like to antagonise JamSena at a time when Kappu community’s votes which JanSena commands has backed TDP in this election. Their desertion in 2019 was one of the big reason for the humiliating rout of TDP.
4/3.Two, he can easily bargain for key ministries from BJP & have his ways as CM.Looking into the track record of Chandrababu Naidu as CM from mid 1990s-2004 & 2014 to 2019, one must understand that he & Modi are on the same page as far as economic & fiscal policies are concerned
A pattern in BJP's list: known personalities like Sapan Dasgupta, Babul Supriyo, Yash Dasgupta etc have been fielded from tough/closely contested seats, rather than safe ones. They are expected to draw extra votes on their own/by their fame.
5. For Naidu, the development of Amravati a state capital will be the top most priority, requiring land and labour reform as the top issue, something BJP is likely to ensure at national level. Special package for Andhra May be a template wherein Nitish may also chime in for Bihar
Watch | "High command does not listen to what the young leaders have to say. I felt like Congress does not want the youth to grow": Former Congress MLA Rupjyoti Kurmi on his decision to join BJP
#Assam
1/1My projection on Bengal turned out to be way off the mark. This was shocking for me after calling some of the recent elections like Bihar and Delhi and before that, MP, Chhatisgarh,Tripura etc right, following the same method. Nevertheless, a mistake is a mistake.
4/2.Regarding the talk about Naidu handing over the CM post to his son & moving to the centre for a bigger role, one needs to understand a basic fact about the regional parties: regional satraps do not desert the arena of state politics when the rival is formidable which is YSRC.
4/1. Similarly, Nitish Kumar doesn’t have much incentive to switch over. Whatever ambition he may have can easily be accommodated in the present arrangement, Congress doesn’t have much to offer.
Majorities of the Hindus who were left behind at Karachi happen to be SCs&STs who due to being employed in menial jobs were not allowed to leave as ‘essential services act’ forced them to be there. CAA is to address that historical wrong, the elites’ howl & cry, notwithstanding.
With this piece I clarify what Subaltern Hindutva means and how it explains BJP's rise in Bengal.
Subaltern Hindutva Has Truly Arrived in Bengal. And That Explains the Rise of BJP
2/2. Two, for the sake of argument, even if both the TDP and the JD(U) decides to switch over to the opposition, then also INDI Alliance will be short of majority by a margin of around 20 seats from required majority and doesn’t leads to them forming the government.
2./1. One, individually their switching to other side doesn’t threaten the majority of the BJP government. Hence, one will not move away unless the other is also solidly on board.
While Uttar Pradesh with double dose of massive infrastructure and astute law & order is emerging as the new hub of development & corporate investment, neighbouring Bihar is going down the drains. Nitish Kumar could’ve done the same but chose to betray Bihar for petty politics.
#WATCH
|
#Varanasi
, UP: "In Varanasi, a stadium is under construction with the help of the Smart City Mission of the Central Government. This is the third International stadium of Uttar Pradesh and the first to be constructed under the supervision of
#BCCI
. It will provide a
Of 77 shutdowns in 2022, 49 were in J&K where security forces & religious minorities are easy terrorist targets. Two army officers and one Dy SP were killed 2 days ago. These overground voices of the underground have the audacity to sell terrorists’ interest as democracy.
Haryana result exposes the whitewash that RG led Congress has been doing for some time: use radical dalit, tribal & egalitarian narratives to whitewash the reactionaries like Khap, Khalistan and others, by making them their prime anchor and projecting them as revolutionaries.
On a more important note, BJP victory in Haryana is a defeat of the disruptive model of protest politics. Imagine a scenario where the lunatic tractor march from Punjab would have been joined by similar elements in Haryana and a regular chaos at Delhi. And then anti-India
Subaltern Hindutva isn't a saffron version of Ambedkarite discourse which constitutes upper castes as the Other. Rather, it's the positive interplay of subaltern with Hindutva and upper castes as ally, Muslims as the Other while centring subaltern outlook. And its not cooption.
Even an undergraduate level insight would reveal that Hindu Right is most subalternised organisation today, unlike the Hindu Left whose Politburo remains Brahmanical. But, propaganda is different from insight.
Our working-class movement & socialist office made Seattle the world's first city outside South Asia to ban caste discrimination.
I urge Toronto School Board
@tdsb
to vote yes tomorrow on a similar motion. Let's defeat the Hindu right wing once again.
A party that believed in secessionism until 1962, has pursued practice of caste & ethnic cleansing, is toxic on the question of language & region… according to Dy CM of Bihar, believes in social justice. This is when entire Bihar is abused by the party consistently.
#WATCH
| Patna, Bihar: On DMK MP Dayanidhi Maran's Statement, Bihar Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav says, "Karunanidhi's party is the DMK. The DMK believes in social justice. If any leader of that party has said something about the people of UP and Bihar, then it is condemnable. We do
I write the cover story, AMONG THE BELIEVERS:THE GRASSROOTS SURGE OF HINDUTVA IN BENGAL, for OPEN Magazine. Sould be at stalls soon. Get a copy or check their website for the digital copy.
This is the sentiment on ground. A walk in college street or Chit Chat at Coffee House in Kolkata, won't give you the idea about the scale of anti-incumbency, fear against the incumbent, tales of repression& the idea which way the wind is blowing. Read the report by
@sayantanbera
While reporting I wanted to visit my ancestral village in East Midnapore. But my own uncle, a gentle and kind man who lives there, was worried. If you come people will express their grievances and I will have to bear the consequences later. Don't come, he pleaded. I didn't go.
Anyone opposing the CAA notification must be a votary of the ‘hostage Hindu population theory’ as espoused by Jinnah, who advocated keeping Hindu minority as hostages in neighbouring countries, with the aim to further anti-India agenda with impunity.
#CAAImplemented
Mr Clown Viz, have more protein to understand the data as you don't understand the ground (making SP win UP 2017). Here, the fact that is being pointed out is simple: more than half seats that BJP won are from reserved constituencies.
A super piece by
@vargheseKgeorge
on how unlike Kerala & Asaam,TMC failed to convert natural calamity into electoral opportunity. Rather, they ended up alienating the electorates by plundering the resources meant for the victims. Hence, employing Bengali exceptionalism won't work
I write for ToI, on the need to abolish the system of party based Panchayat election in Bengal. The panchayat election, introduced by the Left, got degenerated and is responsible for the political culture of revenge, repression-a hallmark of party society.
Conferring Bharat Ratna award to Karpoori Thakur, a Lohiite, a tall socialist leader, follower of egalitarian agenda in politics and ex-CM of Bihar who fought at 2 fronts: the Congress and B.P Mandal (chairman of Mandal commission), the harbinger of politics of feudal backwardism
All sitting Chief Ministers lost their forte except that of Madhya Pradesh on account of the integral feminism of Deen Dayal Upadhyay that trounced the woke feminism of left-liberal duffers.
Carb loving potato eater is expandin&expanding post-Bengal verdict. Yes, I have been wrong in predicting a provincial state, like many, and I am working on that. But before that, from Bihar to Delhi, Madhya Pradesh to Chhatisgarh and Assam to Tripura, I was spot on. Eat more fish
Before Bengal polls, so-called ‘researchers’ peddled BJP propaganda in the guise of analysis. Their TRASH PREDICTIONS were amplified in media. Expect more before all the 2022 Assembly polls. Links👇
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Why North Indian temples have hurtful and contested memories unlike their southern counterparts. ‘Calcutta to Benaras: Days in North India, by Norman Macleod, J.B. LIPPINCOTT &CO, Philadelphia, 1870.
Expelled MP, Mahua Moitra, told the committee, “she shared the password with Hiranandani because her PAs were Bengali speakers who did not know English well.”
In 1951, Nehru himself moved an expulsion motion against Congress MP Mudgal, who was found guilty of accepting bribes for asking questions on behalf of Bombay Bullion Association. Mudgal resigned.
I explain Ethics Committee report in detail.
1/10And about my being a BJP plant for predicting a BJP victory,get some better gossip for adda. U may read my Delhi election report +article. And pls refrain from pontificating on Subaltern Hindutva if you don't understand it. Finally, my apologies to all who were disappointed.
1/2 However, there are two aspects which needs to be seen separately, my seat projections which went wrong and the processes I explained as part of the political processes in Bengal based on my observation. Wrong numbers don't necessarily negative the concepts I employed.
Social anti-incumbency (anti-Jat) won over the political anti-incumbency (ant-BJP) in Haryana. BJP seems to head for its best performance in the state.
#HaryanaElectionResult
Since the term became fashionable, many started using/misusing it. For journalist it's understandable, but for people in academia, this is unethical. A guy in fact tried to appropriate the concept. To put in perspective, Subaltern Hindutva is more transactional, less ideological
Even if ISF (Abbas Siddiqui's party) wins they will support Trinamool. So why take an indirect route. We will directly vote for Trinamool. Samim Ahmed at Madhyamgram AC.
* Religious identity has emerged as the prominent faultline in the polarised contest b/n BJP and TMC.
Fiction of fact-checking; toxicity of stand-up-comedy; sectarian cry of ecosystem calling themselves ‘liberal’: An unholy alliance for unholy purposes, masquerading as democratic outcry, perpetually weaving apocalyptic narrative on contemporary India.
Habitual lie & mischievous propaganda by duffer-lots of academia. Karpoori Thakur allied with Jan Sangh and became Dy-CM in 1967, CM in 1970 & 1977. Rather he faced opposition from likes of B P Mandal, the chairman of Mandal Commission, who with Congress, toppled his govt in 1968
1/6Thus, I feel that BJP's organisational weakness failed to translate pro change sentiment at many segments. Though, that still would have got my projections way off the mark.
1/3First, Subaltern Hindutva is not a new concept which I used or invented for Bengal, it's there since 2013. it was employed in the backdrop of greater degree of acceptability of the BJP among the subalterns as compared to middle class in Bengal.
Bulldozer factor acquired centrality against a Brahmin, Vikas Dubey, a gangster, not Muslims. Law&Order is supreme, but, no one witnessed a collective appeal to Geneva/HR convention during Dubey’s case. Selectively calling for Law&Order on identitarian basis is the new norm.
Amnesty International ex-head, Aakar Patel’s book ‘Price of Modi Years’ takes special care to repeatedly mention the better economic, growth & development indicator of Sri Lanka over India. Reality is out there.
Behind all the crisis chatter concerning BSP, one thing is clear: Mayawati is holding onto her 12% Jatav votes quite emphatically. Her crisis is bringing other segments.
How many seats the BJP, the Trinamool and the Left Front alliance are likely to win, comfortably? How many are closely contested? What are the underlying reasons. For detailed analysis, wait for People's Pulse ground survey report of all the 294 seats.
1/4 For instance, more than half seats that BJP won are from reserved constituencies, particularly the SC reserved segments.
Similarly, I had maintained throughout and written about the no split in minority votes.
Mistakes:
After introspection, I feel that I underestimated
At the height of the Mandal movement, he led a powerful section of OBCs strongly into Hindutva discourse from the front. The Indian Right owes him tremendously for its widened social base in the Hindi heartland.
1/5 general tendency to exonerate MB by the same respondents who were angry with the Trinamool and desired change. Two, I overestimated the seamless translation of pro change sentiment into a vote for BJP symbol despite party's organisational weakness and lack of faces at ACs.
The shift of subaltern castes to Hindutva discourse (subaltern Hindutva) brought BJP to power, a phenomenon visible in Bengal and beyond, argues
@vikaspathak76
@DilliDurAst
Mr Clown Viz, eat more protein to have some better understanding of the data. The argument is that more than half of BJP's seats came from reserved constituencies.
"Ek to Hum Kurmi Upar se Hero (A Kurmi and on top of that a Hero)"
An illustration of prevailing caste identity in Bengal . Pic at Baghmundi in Purulia district.
Such has been the institutional health of Indian Judiciary that a politician & minister in the 1st Communist govt in Kerala got appointed as HC judge in his own state in 1960s & then as a SC judge by 1970s. Think of the hue and cry if something similar happens today.
#Tripuraelection2023
: that BJP will return to power is no story. It will. The real question after today’s assembly election is: will CPM-Congress alliance be able to be the runner up or lose the second spot to local tribal party, Tipra Motha?
To the entire Indian left-liberal framework a Dalit issue is an outrage only if it’s within the purview of Hinduism. Even the response to the act of lynching is seen from communitarian angle.
A perspective on attempt 2 misconstrue my argument 4 a partyless Panchayat election as being against rural democracy. Most showed a colossal ignorance of the ground. In their ranting, had my first experience of getting trolled starting with an academician
Suddenly the People's Pulse website domain, where our Bengal and previous election studies are uploaded has disappeared. Can't say its just a technical glitch or someones mischievous act.
Heard Rahul Gandhi speak to a packed audience of British parliamentarians, journalists & academics at London’s Palace of Westminster. Did I agree with everything he said? No. But what was impossible not to appreciate was his modesty, empathy for people & total lack of pretension.
Being anti-Hindutva doesn’t mean being a secular. The popular reception, here, of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan episode has revealed, once again, the seductive charm of being selectively secular in contemporary India.
In North Bengal's Cooch Bihar, if people say "we are single", that doesn't mean they are unmarried. It means they are supporting BJP (1 flower, lotus), not TMC (2 flowers).
#WestBengalElections2021
“Yasin Malik! The poster boy of separatism in Kashmir”, is a love letter attempting to metamorphose a hawk to a little white dove. बाज़ को कबूतर बनाने की लेखनी।