mred @mred53 Twitter profile

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mred

@mred53

9 months

The Big 12 has confirmed that round robin record is not used when breaking a multi team tie if not all the teams played each other, even if one team swept all the others. This is how the tiebreaker was written, and it's what my tiebreaker site has been assuming.

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mred

@mred53

6 months

@TerribleMaps It used to be two counties.

Bancroft County, Iowa - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Yesterday, had around 35k pageviews, which is what I'd expect around 10 days from the end of the basketball regular season. That's crazy considering there's only one football conference on the site. I hope to add more football conferences next season.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Here's a short thread on two remaining ambiguities in the tiebreaker. In each case, I'm pretty sure I'm interrupting things the way the B12 would, bit it's not literally exactly how it's written.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Per the Austin newspaper, Texas has not clicked the CCG according to a Big 12 source. That means the Big 12 interpretation of the tiebreak procedure does not match mine. I really hope they get more specific about their interpretation, then.

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mred

@mred53

2 years

@TedFlintKansas WBB edition Get a bucket: Angie Welle Get a defensive stop: Lexi Donarski Make a three: Stacy Frese Get a rebound: Chelsea Poppens Make 2 free throws: Bridget Carleton Go for 30 points in a game: Ashley Joens

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mred

@mred53

2 years

@Raoul_000 Since you can only use 100% of that commitment on your original school, you might as well spend that remaining 10% somewhere else.

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mred

@mred53

6 years

@botnikstudios @pitchfork This airport has hired mindless animals who dream of retaliating against masters. I can't believe they would simply continue to do that. Unfortunately that is exactly what happens. I think anyone who travels regularly through this airport is so incompetent.

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mred

@mred53

8 months

I should probably get the basketball tiebreakers up and running for the 23-24 season. That will happen over the next few days, most likely.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Here's a brief thread on why I think the conference interpretation of their own tiebreaker appears to be wrong. I say "appears" because they haven't really told us anything yet other than they believe UT hasn't clinched the CCG.

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mred

@mred53

1 year

With over 85k page views, yesterday was the busiest day for in the six years I have logs available. The old record was 20k less than that.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Monday had around 89k pageviews, the third-busiest day since I started keeping track in 2017 (and I doubt any day was anywhere near that busy prior to that). #1 was March 5, 2023 (the last day of bball regular season) and #2 was three days prior to that.

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mred

@mred53

6 years

@botnikstudios @Babycastles This place is very strong at comedy, but overall there's really no reason to go here. It's very basic. Drinks are very basic. You are guaranteed a bad night.

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mred

@mred53

8 years

@meganganz @danharmon Truly this December is the December of our December

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mred

@mred53

6 years

@sepinwall For me, it was when Dean from Gilmore Girls was Dean's brother in Supernatural.

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mred

@mred53

5 years

@EndlessJeopardy Who is Tobias Fünke?

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mred

@mred53

9 months

I am ready to change my tiebreaker logic as soon as it is officially announced that a sweep wins a round-robin tiebreaker even if not all teams have played. Here's a link to a preview of the updated logic:

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mred

@mred53

9 months

If they would just explain those four scenarios, everything would be cleared up. But I think they won't because a lot of people would be poking holes in their logic. So they cross their fingers and hope Texas wins, and they can fix it in the off-season.

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mred

@mred53

7 years

@bluthquotes From who? The nazis?

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mred

@mred53

9 months

@Hassel_Chris @mattvanwinkle @BigJ52 @ChrisMWilliams To make it clear, ISU needs to win out and have either OU or OSU lose a game. There might be some weird situation where ISU can lose a game and still make it in, but this is by far the easiest route in.

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mred

@mred53

2 years

Trivia: asks question. answer is the Lego typewriter set. Me: shows the team my Lego typewriter set Trivia: asks question. answer is Olivetti Lettera 35 typewriter Me: shows the team my Olivetti Lettera 35 typewriter I swear I'm not a weird typewriter guy... #triviaweekend

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Since it seems the new round-robin sweep logic has basically been released to the media, I've gone ahead and updated the main tiebreaker page to use the new logic. As always, please let me know if you notice any issues.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

We may be getting a clarification / change in tiebreaker rules from the Big 12 per @BerryTramel :

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mred

@mred53

9 months

I have added an alternate model that uses what might be the conference interpretation of their rules. This is only a guess since they haven't clarified that interpretation, but this is the only way UT hasn't clinched that I can come up with.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

The Big 12 has made it clear they are REALLY hoping Texas beats Tech on Friday so they don't have to explain their tiebreak procedure.

2023 Dr Pepper Big 12 Football Championship Clinching Scenarios Update

Scenarios for the Football Championship surrounding Big 12 matchups on Friday, November 24:

big12sports.com

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mred

@mred53

9 months

"Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings." Clearly UT is not next-highest because they are above them. You can say KSU should be in over OU due to record v OSU. I think there's no way the B12 does this bc skipping UT record makes no sense.

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mred

@mred53

2 years

is up and running for the 2022-23 season. Some conferences have not released brackets yet, but I've updated the brackets that are available, including date/time/tv info where available. As always, let me know if you see any issues.

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mred

@mred53

6 years

@NateSilver538 Which means you'd expect his answer to be around July 1st, so July 4th isn't exactly a weird random occurance.

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mred

@mred53

8 months

All the conference MBB and WBB tiebreakers should be up and running now. It looks like Sagarin ratings are no longer being done for MBB this season, so I'm using RealTimeRPI to autofill future game results for both MBB and WBB. As usual, everything is at

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mred

@mred53

6 years

@sepinwall That was my initial reaction upon reading the first half of your tweet, too.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Thanks to @Fergensteiin for pointing it out to me. (I deleted an earlier version of this because I forgot the "if not all the teams played each other" part, which was very important.)

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mred

@mred53

6 years

@JoelGHodgson See this:

Elton John Album Artwork that Inspired MST3K

Joel Hodgson says he got the idea for “Mystery Science Theater” in high school.“I was listening to Elton John’s album ‘Goodbye Yellow Brick Road’ while working on a float,” he says. “There were...

www.rowsdowr.com

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mred

@mred53

7 years

@sepinwall Narrator: Hey! That's the name of the show!

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mred

@mred53

1 year

Season stats for in this thread.

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mred

@mred53

4 years

@WideRtNattyLt If ISU beats Texas and loses to WVU, the scenario that keeps us out is Texas losing to both KSU and Kansas (or losing to one and having the other cancelled), Baylor over KSU, and OU/OSU both winning out. I don't see another one (outside of other cancellations, maybe).

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mred

@mred53

9 months

@joestunardi (First post should say "interpreting" not "interrupting" of course, but I'm not deleting the thread for that typo)

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mred

@mred53

3 years

@BleacherNation Mekkes is from Michigan and Chalmers is from Georgia, so that checks out.

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mred

@mred53

2 years

From Jan 1 through yesterday, over 42k brackets had been generated at . Based on historical data, I'm expecting 400k-500k over the next 18 days. Of those 42k+, here's the breakdown by conference:

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mred

@mred53

9 months

I've already received two emails today with two different scenarios on one of these issues. Here's one of those scenarios: UT and KSU lose, while OU and ISU win. OU is #1 based on record vs ISU and then head to head vs UT. Why is OSU not #2 based on record vs OU?

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Here's the other issue which is more problematic and likely: If UT, OU, KSU win and OSU loses, UT is #1 at 8-1 overall. I have OU #2 over KSU based on record vs UT. Simple enough. But the tiebreaker says:

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Even though it says "another group", I'm assuming it applies to the tied group as well, so because you look at record prior to the tiebreak, record vs OU is skipped.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

... a team that has been placed out of the currently-tied teams is not included in future tiebreak logic among the remaining tied teams. (issue #1 ). The problem is they forgot about the scenario where a team is alone in first and there a tie for 2nd, which looks very likely.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

The B12 tiebreaker says "When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win % against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams."

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mred

@mred53

9 months

A similar situation happens if OU, UT, and KSU are tied. The conference could clear this up now, but they are hoping Texas beats Tech and all remaining scenarios are relatively simple.

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mred

@mred53

9 years

While reading last night, my 5-year-old sounded out the word "change" as "chang". I was so proud. #sixseasonsandamovie @kenjeong

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mred

@mred53

9 months

But that's literally how it's written. I'm going with how I'm sure it will be interpreted, but KSU fans could have a case they should be in based on the literal wording of the tiebreaker.

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mred

@mred53

12 years

"There are no bad ideas. Only great ideas that go horribly wrong."

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mred

@mred53

2 years

1. 33.6% Big 10 MBB 2. 19.0% Big 12 MBB 3. 12.9% ACC MBB 4. 10.1% Big East MBB 5. 3.2% Big 10 WBB 6. 2.7% SEC MBB 7. 1.6% MVC MBB 8. 1.5% Big 12 WBB 9. 1.1% Pac 12 MBB 10. 1.1% Atlantic 10 MBB 11. 1.0% MWC MBB The remaining 53 make up 12.4% of brackets

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mred

@mred53

5 years

@EndlessJeopardy What is Seven Brides for Seven Bowlines?

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mred

@mred53

9 months

(my definition of "brief thread" might not be the same as anyone else's)

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mred

@mred53

4 years

Based on the past few years, I'm expecting around 150K more brackets to be generated in the next 10 days. Here's hoping the website holds up.

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mred

@mred53

2 years

My 2022 Big 12 Football Standings Generator is up and running. I'm not sure at this point if I'll add any additional football conferences. As always, I'll be doing all Div I conferences for MBB and WBB in a couple months.

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mred

@mred53

1 year

@scottreister @cfchangs9 I'm pretty sure this is purely an academic decision. She already spent 5 years at ISU (she was a redshirt her first year) so she's probably moving on to grad school elsewhere.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

@TheDanBewley @ByEliLederman He does now. I guess I need to make a pilgrimage.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

Four of those five could be simple to explain and could clear up a lot (UT loses, two or three of the other three teams win). The fifth scenario is if all four teams lose -- Texas is alone in first, but there's a huge tie for second that could involve games other than those 4.

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mred

@mred53

3 years

@EndlessJeopardy What is the little Dutch boy removing his finger from the dike?

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mred

@mred53

1 year

This past Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were the 24th, 15th and 7th busiest days for in the past 6 years. That's especially unusual this early -- the rest of the top 25 are all within the final 6 days of their respective regular seasons (Tues-Sun).

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mred

@mred53

2 years

As we enter the last 10 days of peak traffic (~70% of my annual traffic), here are the conferences that have generated at least 1% of the brackets created since Jan 1 on : 35.5% Big 10 MBB 14.9% Big East MBB 13.2% ACC MBB 12.2% Big 12 MBB 6.9% Big 10 WBB

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mred

@mred53

3 years

My 2021 Big 12 Football Tiebreaker page is now up and running. As usual, please let me know if you find anything wrong.

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mred

@mred53

3 years

I've enabled the ability to simulate canceled future games on . We're close enough to the end of the season that I figure it's pretty necessary at this point.

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mred

@mred53

8 years

. @Summerfest Also, no binoculars? Really?

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mred

@mred53

9 months

OK, I think the preview site logic is working properly. Thanks to @KStateKyle for pointing out a bug.

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mred

@mred53

8 months

@_AlexGookin What kind of weirdo would do that?

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mred

@mred53

7 years

@Hassel_Chris Here you go.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

There are 16 possible scenarios involving the top four teams (2^4). In the conference release yesterday evening, they explain 11 of those (8 where Texas wins, 3 where Texas and exactly two other teams lose). That means there are only five others to explain.

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mred

@mred53

5 years

@GarmanSports That's the uncle of 2020 @CycloneWBB commit @kylie_feuerbach there at #91 .

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mred

@mred53

4 years

I've switched over to use for schedules and results. I was seeing bugs in the Yahoo! Sports feed.

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mred

@mred53

3 years

@ChuckDelsman They fired him yesterday.

Wisconsin parts way with women’s basketball head coach Jonathan Tsipis

After five seasons leading Badgers women’s basketball, compiling a 50-99 overall record, 14-74 in Big Ten play, Wisconsin Athletics has fired head coach Jonathan Tsipis.

www.wmtv15news.com

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mred

@mred53

6 years

@Big12Conference @DoakWalkerAward I think you mean six. You missed David Montgomery.

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mred

@mred53

1 year

One new feature at : if the schedule is updated since opening the page, it will tell you to refresh when you try to submit a scenario. This will fix issues of past games having incorrect results due to leaving the tab open for an extended period of time.

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mred

@mred53

4 years

I have a rough version of the Big 12 FB tiebreaker that handles cancelled games. It's still a work in progress, but here's the link:

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mred

@mred53

9 months

If KSU wins today, their only two losses would be UT and OSU. OU's losses are OSU and KU. If record v UT were ignored, KSU would hold tiebreaker over OU due to record vs KU. I assumed record v UT would not be ignored, and the release confirms that. But the wording was ambiguous.

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mred

@mred53

4 years

@BleacherNation This is all part of the plan to trade Arrieta and Strop back to the Orioles.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

The tiebreaker says a couple key things: "Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings" "When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group...

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mred

@mred53

6 years

@TimothyDowling @jayharrington3 @MatthewCooney This is you? Jeff was actually my guess for @jayharrington3 . I thought you might be Ricky.

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mred

@mred53

3 years

@xaqwg Chicago Cubes

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mred

@mred53

9 months

...(prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams." I admittedly ignore the word "next" in the first quote if UT is alone in first. It makes no sense to skip record vs UT in the 2nd place tiebreaker in that scenario.

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mred

@mred53

1 year

Doing a quick post-mortem on this season. I'll put everything in this thread.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

I just realized the two issues in my previous thread might be related. The reason it says "next highest" in "Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings" (issue #2 ) is likely to make it clear that...

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mred

@mred53

6 years

@BleacherNation Nope. After the game, win or lose, everybody's going to be saying "This was Bert's doing."

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mred

@mred53

9 months

@DSchild5 @_dannydavis I'm super interested in hearing what scenario they believe has Texas not in the championship game.

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mred

@mred53

8 months

NET ranking is working now.

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mred

@mred53

5 years

@EndlessJeopardy What is: Woke up. Got out of bed. / Saw a truss inside my head.

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mred

@mred53

1 year

This has been by far the busiest season. Busiest days going back six years: 1. Sunday 2023: 111k views 2. Thursday 2023: 108k views 3. Wednesday 2023: 86k views 4. Saturday 2020: 66k views 5. Saturday 2023: 65k views 6. Thursday 2020: 58k views 7. Friday 2023: 56k views

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mred

@mred53

9 months

So if UT, OU, OSU are tied and OU gets the #1 seed based on the initial tiebreakers, record vs OU should not be used to determine the 2 seed. They are not "next". And that would be looking at record AFTER the group tiebreaker, not before.

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mred

@mred53

3 years

@MrsTylerKSR Done! Thanks for pointing it out.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

@mattvanwinkle @BigJ52 @Hassel_Chris @ChrisMWilliams My explanation of the tiebreaker in that case is here:

Discussion on tie breakers.. it sucks..

I feel like they kind of got caught with their pants down. You don't expect something this complicated to happen in the one year at 14 teams and they weren't even contemplating 16 when these were...

cyclonefanatic.com

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mred

@mred53

9 months

@Brettmorey1 @JordanEMAW FYI, the AAC basketball tiebreaker is an example of where it specifically looks at whether one team could match another team's record within a tiebreaker if they played the same number of games in that tiebreaker.

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mred

@mred53

4 years

With traffic at ramping up, it's clear which conference is getting the most attention (rightfully so, given the huge logjam). Out of around 46,000 brackets generated in the past week or so: 55.2% Big 10 MBB 8.9% ACC MBB 6.3% Big 12 MBB 6.0% Big East MBB

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mred

@mred53

8 months

@Lee0107_ Yes. First round is seeds 11-14. Second round adds seeds 5-10. Third round adds seeds 1-4.

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mred

@mred53

5 years

I checked all the tournament brackets vs my calculations and found three issues: the aforementioned SEC mbb and AAC wbb issues and the MWC mbb 8/9 seeds, which appears to be the same issue as the other two. I'll change the logic for those three conferences slightly next year.

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mred

@mred53

2 years

@brentblum Much better than the Michigan State and Penn State doubleheader in 2000.

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mred

@mred53

5 years

@EndlessJeopardy What is the Republic of Texas Instruments?

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mred

@mred53

1 year

Since Jan 1, around 530k brackets were generated. Breakdown: 1. Big 10 mbb 59.5% 2. ACC mbb 9.8% 3. Big 12 mbb 9.5% 4. Big East mbb 4.9% 5. SEC mbb 3.1% 6. A10 mbb 1.9% 7. Big 10 wbb 1.2% 8. Pac 12 mbb 1.1% 9. Big 12 wbb 0.8% 10. Ivy mbb 0.8% All others: 7.4%

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mred

@mred53

2 years

@guster Hey @TheChansaw you need to buy more tickets

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mred

@mred53

2 years

That's over 45k brackets in that time period. I'm projecting somewhere around 125k more in the next 10 days. As usual, I apologize in advance for any server issues that may arise.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

What I think the tiebreaker is saying by "next" is "outside the group of tied teams". And I think the second quote supports this interpretation -- when comparing against a group of tied teams, you look at the record of a group of teams only before the tie is broken, not after.

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mred

@mred53

3 years

@_Danalytics @Lee0107_ This is now up and running.

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mred

@mred53

7 years

Immediately thought of @khaal53 when I saw this.

Evan Zamir

@thecity2

7 years

So advanced.

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mred

@mred53

9 months

@Fergensteiin @Shroudedllama @Jmarkha91 Can you imagine the uproar (and potential lawsuits) if they start applying unpublished tiebreak rules? Grab your popcorn... :)

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