Buying $RIG daily. Won't stop. It's dirt cheap at these levels, and nowhere near "cheesecake" prices. The market is closed on the weekends? No problem. Double up my Monday & Friday Purchases, to make up for it. Using basic value investing, to get ahead of the Hot Money.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Today's Valaris announcement is good for them, and the offshore drilling industry in general. My view is that sooner or later, the IOCs will run out of other rig options, and will be knocking on Transocean's door. I can wait.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
As previously stated about Transocean, reality needs to catch up. This is currently a value position, not a momentum position as some desire. The market has presented another great opportunity to add to the position. The payoff awaits.
The title of the article, already says good things about $BORR, but inside:
"The average day rate for the rigs in operation is around $183,000. The company was also able to get its first-ever contract exceeding $200,000 per day in the second quarter."
Highly recommended reading, if you want to understand the true value of $RIG 8G/20k. And another thank you to
@TommyDeepwater
for informing us regarding Transocean's 7G's that are designed to be upgraded.
LONG-READ COLUMN: The US Gulf of Mexico is about to boom again -- 15 years after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
BP and several others are racing to develop the new frontier in the basin: ultra high-pressure, high-temperature oilfields.
#OOTT
@Opinion
Capital spending on all-new deepwater drilling is poised to hit a 12-year high next year... Investment in all-new and existing deepwater fields could hit $130.7 billion in 2027, a 30% jump over 2023
$XOM $TTE $SHEL $CVX $RIG $VAL $NE
Thoughts on $RIG:
What we have here, is a high stakes porker game between Transocean and E&P. Each side is waiting to see who blinks first, & capitulates. RIG is leveraging that E&P wants to start projects. E&P is leveraging that RIG needs CF soon. I ante up pullbacks & stack $.
$RIG, summary of yesterday's input:
1. 2024-2025 pivotal years.
2. Bankruptcy fear: Deepwater Insight article put this to bed.
3. OPEC+ fear: Passed.
4. Year end CAPEX budgets: The next step.
5. Followed by contract negotiations.
6. And then announcement of deals.
It was this move by ARAMCO, that allowed the opening to establish a good position in $BORR. Now it's starting to payoff. Viewing this along w/ $TDW $FTI as a series of progressing events in offshore, that says the beast is waking up.
$NE $VAL $RIG $DO
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Welcome back to the party Hot Money. We are on point again. Now we need Thigpen and Co to get a cold stacked RIG reactivated. That's the start of the real cheesecake. Energy fund additions by Fidelity's $FSENX will follow.
Nice. $RIG has a new contract, and hot money doesn't like it? This is an oil value investor's DREAM! Give me some more of these cheaply priced "credit default swaps".
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Putting cash together, seeing if the market presents a good buying opportunity over the next few weeks. Earnings numbers basically a nothing burger, but expected. Still awaiting catalyst.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Currently a 3 way tug of war, between the long term value investor, the short term Hot Money trader, and the economy/oil industry pessimists. Some have the view, that it's too early, others FOMO. Me personally: Fear I Don't Have Enough.
Orange Basin Namibia/SA, an Alternate View:
$RIG $VAL $FTI $TDW $SLB $HAL $NOV $OIH etc, etc.. are looking at an absolute GOLD MINE of oil services activity for DECADES. The portfolio will definitely amplify the positions.
$TTE provided a clue recently, expanding their vast acreage holdings in the Orange Basin South Africa. Combining w/Namibia, & if this is a lane of crude oil, there could be projects there for DECADES.
It all depends on economic conditions, how busy $RIG $VAL will become.
$SHEL
It's becoming obvious that Namibia $TTE Venus & $SHEL Jonker will be top candidates for 2024 FID. At least 1 rig for each project. The big question is about the further appraisal & exploration campaigns, while developments progress. 1 rig in each block?
$RIG $VAL
$TTE and it's partner QatarEnergy set up another domino in line, to ignite an offshore drilling frenzy later. I would be a fool not to frontrun the public at these cheap prices.
$RIG $VAL
Looking at different things for 2024 inflection point. So far in the oil markets, these could be leading indicators for what will follow. If there's a rate cut, it's Game On for oil.
$XOM
$RIG or $VAL: Waiting to see who gets the next big score. Thinking it has to be them.
With their modern JU fleet, $BORR scored some deals. The recent focus on building the position w/temp market psychology weakness, now seems like a great move. Waiting to see how the market responds.
“The longevity of the offshore upcycle remains robust,” the report commented, and that upcycle bodes well for offshore drillers and services companies that are “levered to offshore to capitalize on long-term, sustainable growth.”
$RIG $VAL $NE $DO
Simple Math:
Friday, $GLPEY $GALP closed at 8.46 per share, with a Market Cap of $13.271 Billion. Brent is trading at 87.07 per barrel. 10 Billion barrels of oil, is the estimate for Mopane-1X, w/GALP 80% WI. That's $696.560 Billion in oil.
$RIG $VAL
"drilled by the semisub Transocean Norge"
"The Transocean Norge rig has since transferred to the Wintershall Dea-operated Maria Field to drill wells for the Maria Phase 2 project."
There has been some GUY telling us about North Sea capable rigs.
$RIG
Very strange reaction. $NE the aquirer, who has to issue dilutive shares and lay out cash, is being bid up, along w/other offshore drillers. The exact opposite of the usual.
Long term oil thinking:
Imagine KSA Al-Ghawar is in decline, while at the same time USA shale boom which bailed out oil supply for a decade, is hitting a wall. MM isn't talking about this powerful combo at all. It seriously points to offshore. $RIG $DO
Thanks
@FChristopher17
.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Purchased a block of Transocean. The oil markets aren't reflecting reality. It seems that after the OPEC+ meeting, the oil world became the Twilight Zone.
$RIG
Thank you Hot Money, for extending this great sale. This Old Man will be happy to let you have some back, with at least a 100% markup. See you down the line.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
And the Hot Money game continues. Thank you for more cheap shares. They keep selling. I keep buying. A match made in heaven.
The issue w/trying to post about a long term value investment $RIG, Hot Money "oh you should be putting your money here instead". $TDW has been great, and I do have a position. But how many of these so called "geniuses" took a position at $4.77 5/2020. My bet, mostly NONE!
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Purchased a block of Transocean. The oil markets aren't reflecting reality. It seems that after the OPEC+ meeting, the oil world became the Twilight Zone.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Are deeper pockets front running Hot Money? Big thanks to
@MugsLuck
&
@FoamOnTheRunway
for their posts linked below.
Case for offshore drillers.
$RIG, $NE, $DO, $VAL, $BORR, $SDRL
I wonder how many know that due to the aging fields in Saudi Arabia, that they already went offshore, building 27 artificial islands called Manifa?
.
$TTE provided a clue recently, expanding their vast acreage holdings in the Orange Basin South Africa. Combining w/Namibia, & if this is a lane of crude oil, there could be projects there for DECADES.
It all depends on economic conditions, how busy $RIG $VAL will become.
$SHEL
So Exxon, who is absolutely knocking it out of the park in Guyana with billions in oil discoveries, all of a sudden has a drilling prospect called Bluefin, located 6 miles southwest of gas field Haimara-1, closer to northern Corentyne where Kawa & Wei discoveries are located?
Remember, ARAMCO was the one before stating that under investment in oil production would come back to bite the world. Now they are cutting investment, with rising oil prices. That is partly why I say that we are witnessing a covert OPEC+ oil embargo.
$XOM
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Stock market reality is that a stock can continue to go down. Risk Vs. Rewards. From recent top of 8.69 to current 5.03. Simple exercise if it climbs back:
$6 +19%
$7 +39%
$8 +59%
$8.69 +73%
I'm not waiting for some algorithm model.
“Currently, the area is hugely under-explored, with fewer than 20 deepwater wells, compared to thousands of wells offshore in places like the North Sea or the Gulf of Mexico,”
-WOW!!!!
$RIG $VAL $NE
"Woe is me!" "Time to short it." "Sell it!" Etc, etc. Short term trading crowd: that is the game you picked, and not interested with $RIG, or debate about it. This value investor is asking himself: How is the next batch of cheap oil, going to get discovered? UDW! Where else?
Big Back Offense Value: $RIG
Brown bagging the lunch, saving tons of costs to put towards more shares of Transocean. It's that cheap, as my long term value investment. It worth that type of sacrifice. And it's not even 10% of the portfolio. I would be crazy to pass up.
Let me put this out there, so people with questions about my offshore activity is understood:
Owned $NE $RIG $VAL $DO $BORR $SDRL $FTI $TDW. Noble is
#1
at the moment, thank $XOM Transocean is being focused on. All others are gradually added. I like them all in the long run.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Transocean has made a nice recovery from the gutter, after the 8 level sell off. Now it would be nice for it to slow down for reality, to allow business to develop. Gut feeling says Hot Money has something else in mind. Volatility ahead.
The X rivalry continues between the vocal 2 person JU $BORR crew, & the more humble UDW $RIG group, for those sacred "I told you so" bragging rights. Owning both horses here. My bragging bet is w/$34 Trillion debt, will benefit $XOM first. 😁
And keep in mind:
That is ONLY Mopane-1X. $GLPEY $GALP just announced a wider explanation campaign in PEL 83. This could match up with, or exceed $XOM in Stabroek Guyana. It's totally mind blowing.
$SEI.V $RIG $VAL
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $FTI
OPEC+ strategy is spooking the oil markets. Thx market psychology for the great gift. Also added $TDW $SUBCY $HLX $BORR $DO $HAL $SLB $NOV $GLPEY.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Hey Hot Money. Has Transocean found a bottom? I've been buying the entire time. Are you going to join the party?
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Focused on long term w/ the stock. For the short term Hot Money:
1. Enjoy your trade.
2. I don't care about it, go tell someone else.
Offshore blocks in Suriname, Namibia and now Uruguay. Reading into the situation: $CVX sees the writing on the wall. They need to expand beyond shale, GOM & M&A for future growth.
$RIG keeps looking better in the long run.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $BORR
ARAMCO put a thumb in my eye this morning, temporarily suspending 1 Borr rig. "It's Game Over", screams the public. But they aren't reading into the bigger geopolitical picture. This is Super Good News. To be explained quoting this post.
Have been slowly warming up to offshore Norway (despite the frigid conditions). Have been quietly looking closer at oil opportunities. If you want to place "blame" for this deviation.......
Follow Up:
And this is after digesting Maersk, from a few years back. $NE is definitely beefing up for the long run, with UDW and JUs. A one two punch. And the oil up cycle is just getting started. Wow!
$DO
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Hot Money has made the sp so cheap, that I'm now doubling the amount of shares with each purchase. Thank you for the gift.
Disclaimer: Do your own research please.
Hidden in plain sight: $APA in Suriname Blocks 58 & 53 (Brazil too) being surrounded by major players. $XOM is missing a piece of the "Golden Lane". $CVX ( $HES ) is coming down from the top. Is Apache a FID away from receiving an offer?
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $BORR
Would you look at that. Hot Money is helping build the Borr drilling position. When opportunity knocks, take it.
Remembering the top 3 drilling companies from the 2007/2008 period, and why I am building a long term value investor position NOW:
1. Transocean $RIG
2. Noble $NE
3. Ensco $VAL
If those were purchased around 2001, WOW!
With this article hitting the airwaves, and the bidding process getting ready to start, IMO it's just a matter of time before the cat is out of the bag, regarding $GLPEY. Not waiting for Hot Money to wake up. Added more $GALP.LS today.
$GALP
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $GLPEY
An absolute dream for this value investor. Hot Money has exited. $Billion farm-out in process. The stock getting no real attention. Now >10% of portfolio. And when the deal is done, $GALP doesn't share one dime of $$$.
$GALP.LS
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
With Mr. Deepwater's insight & today's ME activity, I see a clear path for Transocean to deleverage w/SP appreciation. The Rocky Road traveled to build this position, should be very rewarding.
$RIG $HYG RIG's Unsecured offering Upsized to $1.8B from $1.5B. 5yr at 8.25% and 7yr at 8.5% ($900mm each). Unsecured market now open to RIG after relying on secured in 2023. New $1.8B said to pay down 2025 and 2027 maturities. Likely leaves ~$700mm of addt'l cash. Flexibility.
The pricing of the oil markets along with their equities, is nothing but a Circus right now. It's providing several entry points, for those who can stomach the volatility. The battle continues, accumulating more Credit Deleveraging Swaps. Working towards inflection point.
$RIG
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO $BORR
The vibe feels like the industry has been pulled out of the jaws of defeat, giving the players time to regroup and make a stand. The game is slowly progressing, needing >Oil prices & CAPEX for next level action.
After yesterday, I'm convinced that Namibia's Orange Basin contains OPEC quantities of oil. Buying into the IOCs now, is like having a great income stream down the line. Weekly purchase program started today.
$TTE $SHEL $GLPEY $CVX $WDS
Follow Up:
So if $TTE $SHEL each run two different rigs in each block, that brings the count to 6 for the area. Add in $WDS for 2025, and it goes up to 7. Throw in the wild card of a smaller operator getting courage to go for it, this could go up to 8 or 9.
$RIG $VAL
"The extension is expected to span one year and has an estimated contract value of $177 million"
Sounds like ~$484M DR. Is my math correct?
It's very obvious UDW is waking up and growing. But some still choose to downplay what is developing.
$NE $MUR
@TommyDeepwater
Thank you for another great update, and bonus for examining what didn't go as planned.
The IOCs need visibility to make CAPEX commitments. Volatility w/oil prices, is keeping them discipline. Currently viewing it as project replacement. Finish one project, before the next.
Follow Up:
'first quarter contracting momentum for 7G rigs has been back on trend for this up-cycle, with a significant pipeline of contracts due to come to market this year for 2025 and 2026 project commencements.”'
$NE $VAL $RIG
Call it what you want, the "Suriname Triangle", but blks 58 53 52 are heating up activity 2024-25. I see FIDs by 25, w/3 more drillships in the area ($XOM Guyana). The lights will come on, back to back to back.
$NE $TTE $APA Petronas
@TommyDeepwater
Keep those great reports coming buddy. The set up for the industry is developing. The IOCs want more visibility for a stable situation. E&P, especially on the smaller side, need to strengthen their balance sheets, before they can go wildcat more. Whitespace is a great term.
Ejected $OIH from the portfolio, & will be building a position in $OFOS, whis focused strictly on offshore. Added to the undervalued $GLPEY position. Private Custos is "Direct" controller of 10% PEL 83, that doesn't belong to NAMCOR. Beyond CEO Katti, any good info on Company?
It's funny how last Monday, the story was "OPEC+ could raise output later, flooding the market (as they ruin themselves)", to "Who is OPEC+? We have an OSD merger, and want to bid their sector up". I can't make this stuff up.
$XOM
Posting here, for a research point of reference. Especially after hearing that $SEI.V has only the possibility to receive divided payments, if Inter Oil chooses. My bet is that any possible shareholder returns, will be a small fraction.
$SEUSF
@TApocalyt
@sintanaenergy
Thank you for the information. That advances to conversation beyond what has been thrown around so far. That is the first time that I've heard anyone mention Inter Oil owning Custos, or SEI.V 49% of Inter Oil.
$SEUSF
Follow Up
#3
:
Namibia PEL 39
$SHEL 45%
QatarEnergy 45%
PEL 56/91
$TTE 40%
QatarEnergy 30%
Impact 20%
There's QatarEnergy going global again. Right in the middle of two huge discoveries.
$QAT $RIG $VAL
BOOM!
And there is the other side of the "V" dip recovery. It was a great period, used to add to positions. Cash reserves in action. Value investing.
$XOM
3 things that should be more important to $GLPEY $GALP.LS, than the proximity of other blks, in the Namibia PEL 83 sweepstakes:
1. Upfront farm-out $$$. It won't be cheap.
2. Can IOC's afford to carry $GALP, while at the same time....
3. Prioritizing Mopane development.
Just another confirmation that I need more oil and commodities. At $34+ Trillion in UST Debt, along w/rapidly expanding US Dollar supply, the approaching inflation will be ugly.
Long $XOM
What timing. Had enough with the political games, and left $PBR. I just couldn't deal with another national oil company, being cornered into the green movement. How long before the government diverts FCF to other projects? Beware.
More beefing up for $CVX w/offshore blocks. The direction that they are taking is great. Welcome to the expanded offshore exploration party.
$RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL
Chevron, through its subsidiary Cabinda Gulf Oil Company Limited, has signed two Risk Service Contracts for Block 49 and Block 50
#offshore
#Angola
, in the ultra-deep waters of the Lower Congo basin.
Read more:
#oilandgas
#exploration
"The ouster of Prates represents a win for members of Lula's cabinet pushing for lower fuel prices, smaller dividends and more capital spending to create jobs and boost the economy."
Doesn't sound shareholder friendly. What next, privatize?
$PBR
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Hot Money Trader: Going to trade this back & forth in large blocks for a $0.10 spread.
Long Term Value Investor: Later will sell Hot Money their inventory, with upwards of $20 per share spread.
Comments like this tell me to not worry at all about short term sp for Oil related companies. This goes double for the short-term quarterly complaints regarding $RIG. Geology is my best friend. I can wait, and build a bigger position.
Saudi Aramco CEO, world needs to find a Saudi Arabia every 2 years to replace depleting capacity
Key takeaways
1) lifting cost: $3.1 /bbl
2) World well supplied
3) Demand recovered
4) Global Depletion rate: 6%
5) Supply growth rate: 3%
#OOTT
#Oil
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $RIG
Did the unthinkable, and paused Transocean purchases..... because with the recent dip, took the opportunity to put cash to work, and bought over 3 months of shares.
@TommyDeepwater
Thank you for another great update. Exploration campaigns are the starting point for increasing rig usage. FIDs are needed to lock them up in long term projects, eating up spare capacity. Maybe in Blondie's "Rapture", the man from Mars can stop eating cars, and eat rigs instead.
@FChristopher17
Keep spreading the word. The Javier Blas article is educating, and made me appreciate 8G/20k even more. Big respect for $RIG assets. They are positioned, where the industry is headed. It's a longer strategy for the big payoff.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $PBR
This is EXACTLY why I'm building a portfolio, and not overweight a stock for it's divided or potential increase. Petrobras has great production. The payout is just getting more realistic. Adding to the position.
If anyone is interested in the status of the offshore oil drilling industry, you will be doing yourself a huge favor by looking at the material presented by
@TommyDeepwater
. I would give an arm and leg, to be inside of his data room, plugged into the central computer.
Benjamin was a great host. We discuss my past valuing offshore rigs as debt collateral $HYG, long cycle nature of offshore capex, $RIG $VAL $NE $ODL.OL $DO $TDW, importance of no new order book, my favorite oil sands company in Canada $CVE and other topics. Thanks
@themavlife
"Breaking: Dutch court orders occupied fossil gas drilling platform to cease activities"
"(ONE-Dyas) has to halt the installation of the drilling platform ( $BORR Prospector 1 ) at least until a hearing on this has been held on June 12."
Different.
Big Back Offense Value Investing: $TDW
Went back to Tidewater punch bowl, and took a gulp. It's been working so far, and the oil cycle is still very early. I don't see the direction changing.
"‘Historic’ moment for Uruguay: Shell, APA, and YPF seal deals for offshore hydrocarbon exploration"
They face costs, but I just love how APA is growing up in the offshore arena, versus playing it safe in shale.
$APA $SHEL $YPF
When companies start striking oil, catching me by surprise, I start to pay attention. Opened a position in Valeura today, and will be keeping a watchful eye on it.
$VLERF