McKinley Slade @mckinleyslade Twitter profile

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McKinley Slade

2 months

$102,950.06 My PnL on Pikkit from March 24th 2023-April 10th 2024. Over $100,000 in 383 days from only 3 accounts, UD, PP and RI Sportsbook. I understand the betting landscape well enough to know that I'm a small fish in a big pond. There are individuals and groups that

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@MikeSteveRitter “Atlas’ were huge” lmao Russillo is too much when he’s egging Bill on

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@big_business_ Barack knows EXACTLY what he’s doing here

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

It’s not supposed to be fun.... A lot of sports fans get into betting expecting it to simultaneously be fun, and profitable. Looking to betting for both of these things will likely end in disappointment. Here’s why. Happiness = Expectations - Reality Imagine two golfers,

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@NotladYrneh That’s extremely concerning behavior

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@LiamFennessy_ Damn. This is so good

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@BrentleyGC Professional golfers make it harder and harder to be fans every time they speak to media these days. Hilarious quote though, to be fair.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

I've bet for a while now, but I want to start doing some modeling. Where do I start? This is something I get asked a lot. It's a great question! After working on modeling projects for years, it's easy to take for granted just how overwhelming it can be to get started.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@pamelam35 @collin_morikawa @XSchauffele @Wyndham_Clark @PGATOUR Lol those are passport pictures for sure

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

Folks, if you’re going to attempt to circumvent limits by multi accounting, please do not slander the book after you’re caught, and forced to serve the rightful punishment. Obviously, I’m not privy to all the relevant information here, but the way his tweet was worded STRONGLY

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@theColeBruns @MikeSteveRitter 100% because bill doesn’t even care what Russillo is saying most of the time lol. He’s just trying to get whatever point he wants to in whenever it pops into his head. Maybe the worst “listener” on planet earth in that regard

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@BowTiedBull Also, become a caddy for a summer gig when they’re like 12 or 13 and do it at least until high school is over. By far the best hourly rate for part time work, under the table cash, and if you get good it’s likely you make some really valuable connections that you would have no

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

July Review: The 3m was a relatively boring tournament without too many takeaways so instead of a single review, I want to look back on the first month in which I have posted here consistently. I'm still a relative unknown in the twitter-sphere, but throughout July my

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

The thing about the old days, they the old days. If you're a fan of The Wire, you might recognize this quote as coming from my favorite role player on the show, Slim Charles. Slim was not a main character in the Wire, but he was one of the few that managed to survive the

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

Really enjoyed this episode from the Circles Off crew. Most of us get into betting because of the perceived freedom the lifestyle creates only to end up working longer hours, at less convenient times, with greater stress than a “normal job”. Once you learn how to win, the next

Circles Off 🔨

@CirclesOffHQ

1 month

EPISODE 170 PRESENTED BY @Pinnacle 🚨 @robpizzola and @JoeyKnish22 take you through the day-to-day processes of betting on College Football and the NFL at a large scale WATCH:

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Close to as stress free as possible today. Great read on the weather. Hopefully had a few people tail these! Rarely this smooth, so have to enjoy it when it is.

McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Rd 3 Scottish Open Projections: Looks like the weather in the morning tomorrow will be windier and potentially some colder rain. I guess the sites think that they will have the course setup to be getable, which is possible, but I don't think it will be enough to get to some of

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

5 years

@Jimmyjude13 Not explicitly defending bears, but weren’t a lot of their arguments simply that the system was fragile and the right catalyst could wreak havoc?

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@SJD10304 In visual form for those interested.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Scottish Open Recap As I mentioned last night, I want to recap the previous week of results to provide some ideas of how to think about your betting results in ways other than ROI and PnL. This review will focus on fantasy site results only. Questions I am trying to answer

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Are you willing to spend hundreds of hours, tirelessly working, only to lose money? If not, then a career in risk taking probably isn't your thing. I have been watching a lot of Track and Field at the Olympics lately, and Grant Fisher's post 10k Bronze Medal interview has

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@NoLayingUp Scottie and X . . . . . . . Everyone else

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Tour Championship R1 Preview: Brief overview of what I think the landscape looks like for round score markets tomorrow. East Lake has been the home of the Tour Championship since 2005, but this year it will look completely different. Over the last 12 months the course has

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

26 days

Unfortunate reality of betting, particularly higher variance strategies. Couple things that can help to alleviate ~some~ of this cost 1. Thorough understanding of what you’re betting and logical explanation of why it “should” win. 2. A partner/friend that is also backing the

Trench

@Matthew_Trench

26 days

Many aspiring bettors I talk to think you just have to beat the margin/vig and job done. If only that were the only cost to overcome. Every day of a drawdown you are paying the emotional/psychological margin/vig. Many long shot backers find they can beat the first easily only to

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

As a non-professional bettor you likely have a finite amount of time to dedicate to your craft. As a result, you're faced with the trade-off between experimentation and specialization. Do you experiment in new areas, looking for sources of edge, or do you extract every ounce

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Wyndham Championship Preview: Waited as long as I possibly could to put this together, as I was fairly confident the first round would be postponed before it even started, and didn't want to waste other's, and my own, time. Quite frankly, this week still seems like it may be a

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

11 days

Yes this is obviously incredibly dumb. No, none of the people paying these guys care. They’re paying for two things: -To absolve themselves of the grief from making the wrong choice of their own volition. -To be part of a community that is aligned in their rooting interest.

Calling Our Shot

@CallingOurShot

11 days

@BallgameBets @KirkEvans0 I studied statistics in college (that was my major). I’m very aware of what it means. Similarly, I am aware that you can make money sports betting without being a +EV Bettor and only betting based off finding mispriced lines. It’s a way of making money, yes, but not the ONLY

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

British Open Preview: I won't be writing a full length article this week, as there isn't enough relevant data to write a real preview. There are a couple of interesting things worth discussing ahead of the tournament that could provide some edges for the round score markets.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@6900Yards Tremendous tweet lol

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@ramit At home sauna. Always seemed to sleep well after sauna use elsewhere, but never seemed realistic to have at home (too big, electrician required, too expensive etc) Found an option that worked at current home and didn’t need an electrician to install and pulled the trigger

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Scottish Open Rd 4 projections: Really starting to like the afternoon overs tomorrow as the wind forecast starts to pick up late day. I think there will be time to add tomorrow morning so no need to go overboard tonight, but I played a few slips already which are included

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

22 days

You're trading too big. One of the most common pitfalls in trading/betting is the desire for immediate meaningful returns. The chance that your first iteration of a new model/strategy is going to be exactly correct is close to 0. Even if you have an edge, you won't have the

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

You're paid to do useful stuff... As a risk taker in a marketplace, you're paid to do things which are useful to other market participants. The most useful thing you can do as a bettor, is make the market sharper by offering information. There are many ways to acquire

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

How do you deal with losing? Your response to losing says a lot about your experience level as a risk taker. Early on, every loss feels undeserved. The losses make you angry. They are all the most unlucky loss that anyone has ever taken. I've been there. As you gain

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Nothing can replicate having enough confidence in your work to comfortably ignore everyone. Very difficult to properly execute and size bets/trades if you are trying to incorporate your favorite follow’s opinion into your decision making. Do the work yourself, and once you

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Once again here to remind you (and myself) that you’re ~not~ a professional, and you most likely never will be. Do things that work for you. Do your best not to get bogged down in the minutia and spend your limited time on the “big rocks”. Play games you can win. Don’t

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

19 days

Making better predictions than the market is hard. Finding systemic inefficiencies is a lot easier, and requires far less resources.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Not going to bother waiting for second round lines to be posted tonight with the late finish. Will have some stuff up early tomorrow morning, though it will come with low conviction given that I have one singular round of data from this course. Tough tournament to get excited

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

17 days

With the resources I have right now how do I maximize my returns? Do you ever find yourself fantasizing about how much money you could make if you just had the information that your favorite pro does, the coding skills of a developer, or the research budget of a syndicate? I

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

19 days

People tend to listen to the loudest and most confident voices above all else. This is especially true whenever risk of capital is involved. The problem is, volume and confidence typically come from the least thoughtful individuals. Not the wisest.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

@statsowar Utah/OKst

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Adverse selection is your biggest risk. No matter what style of betting you employ, bottom up, top down, +EV, higher variance, etc. You are always faced with some form of adverse selection. In +EV/Top Down, adverse selection comes in the form of speed. If you are slower than

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Don’t underestimate the value of simplicity. The smarter you get, the more tempting it becomes to add layers to models, routines and processes in an attempt to squeeze every last bit of EV from them. This is almost always a bad idea. Complexity leads to increased time

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

Pretending trade-offs don't exist makes you more likely to make the worst ones.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

You're stressed because you think perfection is attainable. It's not. Directionality and consistency are more than enough to find the success you're looking for.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Very tired, but still running numbers for the team out here. Seems like mixed bag, but slight lean towards overs. Fanduel first picture. PP/UD second. Lack of commentary due to fatigue.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

FedEx Saint Jude R1 Preview: As is the case with most first rounds, uncertainty is higher than the rest of the week, and as a result my exposure will be on the lighter side. I mentioned in the preview that based on historical scoring, R1 was likely to favor unders, and this

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Re-reading a few of my favorite blog posts tonight. Not the longest reads ever, but dense with insight and extremely well written. I think anyone that finds my content interesting would appreciate them both.

The Many Worlds of Enough - More To That

Enough is elusive because when you reach it, you're no longer the person that once desired it.

moretothat.com

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@Jake__Wujastyk First close > 19 in at least 3 months gives you these results. Not necessarily a bad buy signal, but not without risk either. My original point wasn't to say that a vix spike is a bad time to buy stuff, simply that you have to use a larger amount of data if you want to draw any

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

25 days

The line between hindsight bias and necessary updates to a model is extremely narrow, and one of the most difficult to navigate properly. But that doesn't make it unimportant. In my experience, the urge to do something in combination with hindsight bias often leads to

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

The first step in understanding risk is to accept that a bet is a bet whether it wins or loses. Otherwise rational people often try to ascribe the outcome of a bet to something like luck, fate, karma, or countless other immeasurable forces. In the unprovable event that one of

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Well, we had the PERFECT read on the day. Weather came in and the afternoon played 1.5 shots harder than the morning, with better players. Sadly wasn’t able to monetize it on underdog due to a great round by Adam Scott and one of the worst beats/pushes I have ever experienced

McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Scottish Open Rd 4 projections: Really starting to like the afternoon overs tomorrow as the wind forecast starts to pick up late day. I think there will be time to add tomorrow morning so no need to go overboard tonight, but I played a few slips already which are included

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Every year when August is winding down I think to myself... "This would have been a great month to take off. Perfect weather, very little to speculate on, low motivation" Then a year goes by, next August rolls around, and I have forgotten this entirely.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

8 months

@SJD10304 Those max drawdown numbers are wild

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

FedEx Saint Jude R2 Preview: Course played slightly more difficult than expected today, and with the second round tending to play harder than the first, it looks like there are some monetizable edges on overs tomorrow. Winds are expected to be a bit higher, and pins expected

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Olympics Golf Preview: Tomorrow kicks off what should be a fun, four day event at Le Golf National for the Olympics. Le Golf is kind of a mix between a Florida golf course and a links design. It has very little in the way of trees, lots of water trouble, links bunkering, and

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

For anyone that didn't get the numbers last night, UD has adjusted down after easier conditions this morning, but with the wind picking up I still like the overs. I just played this and still have an hour to get it in.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Unable to get anything home today, fell victim to some unfortunate putting variance as Tosti gained a hefty 2.9 shots on the greens today to go under by a stroke while Straka lost 0.9 shots on the green to go over by the hook. Not really a whole lot you can do about that,

McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Olympics Golf Round 3: Almost identical scoring on day 2, and I expect day 3 to be very similar once again. The wind looks to remain tame, and the greens will be soft for the third day in a row. That said, this course is still hard, and with all the trouble out there, the

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@AlexHormozi "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." You're not going to run a marathon your first month of training. Don't pretend you will. Create a plan which makes it easy for you to show up every day, and your odds of success

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

29 days

NCAAF Weather Map: Snapshot of a project I've been working on this week. Not quite finished yet, but looking pretty good! Bigger the dot, the larger the perceived weather effect. Wind dot opacity is tied to "volatility" in that region. The lighter the dot, the more skeptical

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Everything is a series of trade-offs Life becomes easier once you accept this reality. It's rare to have an objectively right way to approach anything. Often times, the same problem can have different "optimal" solutions depending on the individual and what they are optimizing

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

Nowadays, the DFS world is nothing like it used to be. The industry is bigger, the information is better, and the average participant is much smarter. Edges are thinner than they once were, and winning consistently requires better preparation than ever before. I’m not good

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

One of the biggest mistakes that independent risk takers make is trying to behave like professionals. Be willing to embrace the fact that you're not even playing the same game. Yes, it comes with disadvantages. It also comes with some incredible opportunities that are not

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Don't forget that you are an n of 1. Health studies and research can point you in the right direction. Winning bettors can show you a way to win. Dieticians can show you a diet that has worked for their clients in the past. But they will never be able to give you THE

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

18 days

@propdude7 Nah bro, your best bet is to report that in good faith so you can be a respectful customer

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Tour Championship R2 Preview: With the first round in the books, we actually have some legitimate data to work with heading into Friday. East Lake played easier than most expected today, with scoring coming in just above 68.5 across the field. This ended up being ~0.83 shots

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

I’m not sure what caused it other than lots of experience, but going from someone who both marveled at AND aspired to be like the “best of” certain fields, to someone who still marvels at, but now realizes that trying to be those people will almost surely result in frustration,

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Olympics Golf Round 3: Almost identical scoring on day 2, and I expect day 3 to be very similar once again. The wind looks to remain tame, and the greens will be soft for the third day in a row. That said, this course is still hard, and with all the trouble out there, the

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@TheeDegenBoosts -1u is -1u, no pictures on the scorecard.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Open Championship Review: This will be different than last week as I’m traveling and don’t have the ability to run simulations. I have more qualitative takeaways than quantitative, but I thought there were some important things I took away from last week that are worth

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

19 days

The NFL is one of the most liquid sports betting markets in the world, but beating it is actually easier than you might think. Here's a time tested strategy to win >60% long term in the NFL... Listen to Bill Simmons' Sunday night podcast, and any time he is effusive about a

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

Risk takers end up obsessively measuring things other people think are irrelevant and compiling statistics about seemingly unrelated or trivial things while showing no interest at all in the things other people think matter

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Open Championship Rd 3 Preview: Talked about this in my short weekly preview, and setup seems like it is coming to fruition. Difficult conditions the first two days have elevated difficulty expectations too far, in my opinion. Expecting the course to play about a half shot

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

1/2 on shared slips here for a slightly boosted payout at 6.1x so hopefully helped make a few people some $. Tosti was a big swing for me today, but projections were pretty solid on the whole. Expecting tomorrow to be similar to today as I just don’t see how the setup can

McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Olympics Round 2 Preview: Course played WAY easier than expected today, and I don't see a ton of reason to expect that to change tomorrow. Weather looks reasonable again, and greens should remain soft all week. That said, the adjustments made after round 1 are extreme by the

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

@DMProps Nah dawg he’s moving with calculated movement. Built different

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Resolve is often glorified nowadays, but the world's wealthiest people are that rich because of their ability to REALLY run it up when good fortune presents them with a rare opportunity. Resolve is great at preventing utter failure, it's not what makes you a billionaire.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Tour Championship Final Round Preview: East Lake was a bit more challenging yesterday, as it played just 1.6 shots under par, which was ~0.5 shots harder than I was anticipating, and I was higher than most odds makers. I would expect today to be slightly tougher once again,

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@quantymacro

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@therobotjames Nah man, everything you need to succeed as a modern man is in hustlers u, for the extraordinarily reasonable price of $49.99 per month. Just gotta be built different to get it

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

@AndyTFE Now show before 22’. Maybe he just ran hot for a year like hundreds of guys before him and made a tremendous business decision to cash out on top?

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

For those who have no access to fantasy sites here are my numbers against DK/FD. I mostly prefer the morning wave as the afternoon weather looks a little bit less predictable.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool." A famous quote from one of the great modern thinkers, Richard Feynman, that happens to be very relevant for risk takers. Independent risk takers lose money for all sorts of

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@BrianKirschner_ Worst traffic/drivers of any state in the entire country

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@buccocapital ***Russillo speaks at 10x speeds frantically trying to get half his point in before Simmons cuts him off for the 97th time that episode

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

@fairplaygov No worries, it’s a perfectly reasonable question would definitely not take it as a dig! I actually typed up a paragraph in the tweet addressing that but it didn’t really work as part of the context so I ultimately got rid of it. Flattening came from 2 things which happened kind

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Not sure if anyone out there even looked at this but the top 13 edges went 12-1 today haha. Still not entirely sure why all the sites missed the weather forecast, but certainly not complaining…

McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Again, only seeing stuff from FD and DK, no Bovada lines but largely the same story here. Significant edge on morning tee time overs. I think these are worth playing, but they have more path's to failure than I would like for them to be "sizeable" bets, so if you do play them,

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@TheOneLanceB Very helpful perspective for relatively advanced traders. Would just add that if you are a newer trader, you can probably simplify this process quite a bit by asking yourself, what trades have I actually made money on lately, and if I was forced to take only that exact trade,

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

Open Championship Rd 1 Preview: I've mentioned previously that Rd 1's at the Open, U.S Open, and PGA are inherently difficult to predict from a scoring standpoint, because the most recent data is usually 8-12 years old. Technology has come a long way since then, and it's hard

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

3 months

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Rules are valuable not because they are always right, but because they save you from wasting time on decisions which you are equally likely to get right or wrong.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

15 days

What you're getting wrong about game selection... The common interpretation of game selection is that you need to find people to trade with, or bet against, that are less informed than you. This is obviously true, but it's also quite limiting. The liquidity from uninformed

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

What do you understand that others don't? That's where you should be looking for an edge.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

4 months

@NateSilver538 Hahaha it’s actually remarkable how similar a die-hard sports fan is to an extremist political person

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

Ever seen anyone hole out for eagle to take a 4 shot lead with < 9 holes to play and make a quad on the VERY NEXT hole. Golf is special.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

23 days

I used to be the most attracted to the books or podcasts that purported to have it all figured out. “Here’s The way to do the thing you want” Now I’m the most attracted to the books or podcasts that purport the exact opposite. “It’s impossible to do the thing you want, but

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

Let’s talk about entitlement. I’m sure you have heard many people parrot the idea that you should live as though you’re entitled to nothing. Expect nothing from anyone and pretend like you’re starting from scratch every time you get out of bed. As always, there are

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

Your goals are there for the taking. They just take a hell of a lot more work than you think.

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

1 month

Don’t be afraid to change your mind

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

15 days

You think you understand variance, and then you read something like this. Humans are absolutely incredible

Cejay Kim

@cejaykim

16 days

From $88K to $415M to nothing. This is insane

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McKinley Slade

@mckinleyslade

2 months

We often think of our future self as much more disciplined/capable than our present self. This can be a very easy trap to fall into, I do it myself all the time. "Oh yea I won't go for a walk tonight because I'll just get up earlier tomorrow and go for a run" "This trade

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