Martin Boon @martinboon Twitter profile

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@Delia__K32

Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

I conducted focus groups in the NE just before election, and Labour-to-the-core voters despised Jeremy Corbyn & what he’d done the the party so much they could not vote for it even if grandparents turned in their grave. They didn’t mention Tony Blair much, except positively.

Laura Pidcock

@LauraPidcock

5 years

Vital to learn the lessons of Labour’s #GE2019 defeat. However, the answers will not be found at the door of New Labour’s architects. Blair’s legacy still hangs around this party like a millstone, especially in the North East. I heard it time & time again:

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 years

A landmark poll from @JoeTwyman @DeltapollUK where Labour lead on the holy trinity of VI, economic competence and leader approval ratings.

More voters would back Labour to run nation's finances than the Tories

A poll for the Mirror found that 42% of people would back Labour's Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves on the economy over 36% who back Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak

www.mirror.co.uk

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 months

“Bring back national service” is a line I’ve heard countless times in focus groups over the years, and typically by the mad focus group member who I had to put a lid on because they spoiled it for everyone else. That’s who the Tories are clearly now listening to.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

@labourlewis Neither I, nor anyone at @ICMResearch has any knowledge of this poll. Please withdraw our name from it.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

3 years

I’d like to see a campaign for common sense in how to construct balanced batteries of statements.

Campaign For Common Sense

@CommSenseUK

3 years

We found: - culture is to Labour what the NHS was to the Conservatives for so long, its perceived values & priorities are out of step with the public - the Conservatives can confidently take a stand on these issues knowing that they are more in tune with the British public.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

If my tired eyes have not betrayed me, this is a truly sensational performance from the pollsters, particularly @benatipsosmori and @AGKD123 @OpiniumResearch Congrats to basically everyone.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 years

With the honorable exception of @OpiniumResearch I think there is almost uniformity in polling methods. If there were a spiral of silence/Shy Tory effect, right now it would be at its peak, and hardly anyone is controlling for it. Sorry to be a broken record.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 years

We're thrilled to announce that @LotteHargrave has joined us at @DeltapollUK as Head of Data Science after finishing up her PhD at UCL. Lotte will bring a sophisticated analytical function to our polling work that we've been seeking since @JoeTwyman and I set up four years ago.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

So @UKLabour just 3-points shy of their historic 1997 victory and 1-point off their 2001 victory. Forgive me for being sceptical.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

We suspect @joswinson might be in trouble.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Tories 15-points with Opinium.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 years

Ok, so a bunch of polls have come out at the same time, and one is an outlier that will grab the headlines and the others are around the 20-point lead mark. It’s a disaster for the Tories whatever way you look at it but do exercise some caution with the hot takes.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

3 years

A single focus group extensively reported in @thetimes is little better than a bunch of vox pops, especially if it is purposively recruited to reflect a specific group. You need 4 groups min to properly report. 8 people sitting round a table means little to nothing.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

The final @DeltapollUK call for #GE2019 is: Con 45% Lab 35% LD 10% BXP 3% Green 3% Oth 4% Data table at

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

We're not massively confident, but right now we're predicting the Tories GAIN Canterbury by 2-points.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

3 years

Imagine doing a focus group tonight and nobody having heard anything about the Owen Paterson thing.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

4 years

In a Coronavirus age where just about MR company is flailing around trying to jump on the bandwagon, got to say that Ipsos-MORI are knocking it out of the park. Truly tremendous polling, public info, data viz and industry leadership.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

There was a time, not so long ago, when online panels were chock full of UKIP middle aged males bed blocking quota cells with immediate responses that prevented non-ukip equivalents participating. 1/?

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

No point glossing it over. The turnout model backfired. My call and it was the wrong one.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 years

Fascinating thread from Chris but stunned by this. I have never been told by anyone not to release a poll. This goes against every principle of objective and independent polling.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

3 years

@Dannythefink @GavinBarwell A long time ago I was off to do some of *your* focus groups, and I left my bag on the train. It contained £2000 in cash incentives, £1000 of high end recording equipment and a new hot water bottle for my wife. On being found next day, only the hot water bottle was missing.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Tonight of all nights, let‘s briefly pay homage to Cleggmania, an almost entirely illusionary but dominant feature of the 2010 campaign.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

6 years

By looks of things, @Ed_Miliband participation in the #SuperBowl is in jeopardy.

ProFootballTalk

@ProFootballTalk

6 years

Illness making its way around the Eagles locker room

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

9 months

There is not a reputable pollster in the land who would agree.

Nasim Chowdhury 💥

@038Degrees

9 months

@robfordmancs @Keir_Starmer Nobody said that it was a super-precise gauge of Muslim opinion. If you bothered to do a little bit more than Google you'd see that @SadiqDorasat 's work has been very useful in highlighting Muslim opinion and forming action plans based on it.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

Feels like the Tory wheels are coming off. @ICMResearch poll might be out of date before it's published.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

I understand that the @DeltapollUK constituency polls will be released at 7pm. Once placed in public domain we will try and get tables on our website straight away but I'll be in a car at that time so don't @ me.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Tonight’s polls will be important. Two polling groups have emerged - one with higher Con leads and one with lower. Tonight should see the ‘higher’ group publish - @YouGov @OpiniumResearch and everyone’s favourite @DeltapollUK

Rob Ford

@robfordmancs

5 years

Cons and Labour both up by almost exactly the same amount since election was called on Oct 31st. But Cons have little BXP vote left to squeeze, and have stalled this week. Lab have advanced further and have more LD/Grn etc vote left to squeeze. Will race tighten further?

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Big mystery here. Polling companies coalesced around methodological consistency more than ever. And yet the polls are ‘all over the place’. My great fear: it’s all about what convenience sample is used, and we’re blindly trusting something we know less about than ever before.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Tell you what - with all this expectation about the YouGov model tonight... I think it will be pretty mundane and I'd be surprised if it doesn't track their regular poll outputs.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

1 year

I helped run focus groups for the Tories before and after ‘97 and the hostility and invective toward them now feels much worse than my recollections of it then.

Rob Ford

@robfordmancs

1 year

This certainly feels more run up to 1997 than 1992. Ahead of 1992, Major's popularity helped drive a rebound for his party. Ahead of 1997, entrenched public hostility to Cons dragged Major's ratings down.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

4 years

If a pollster really told Rod Liddle this, which I doubt, then shame on you for this pathetic spinelessness. #contempt “There are no opinion polls available. I asked one company why this was the case, and the reply was: “Because we were worried we wouldn’t like the results.”

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

8 years

Best team to run economy. May/Hammond 53%. Corbyn/McDonnell 15%. @ICMResearch

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Five constituency polls from @DeltapollUK are now live in The Observer: Esher & Walton, Beaconsfield, Herts SW, Portsmouth South and Berwick Upon Tweed. All are now published on our website here:

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

9 years

Oh shit.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 years

How to demonstrate you know next to nothing about statistical significance by citing statistical significance.

Michael Saylor⚡️

@saylor

2 years

@elonmusk With 116.6 million followers, your polls are starting to become statistically significant. What if Twitter had an "All Users" poll that you could push to every single twitter account to find out what the entire network is thinking, with no particular adverse selection? 🤔

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

For some horrifying reason, at this moment of all moments I have been drawn back to this from 10.01pm 7th May 2015.

Martin Boon

@martinboon

9 years

Oh shit.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

The polling industry looks to have had a very, very good night. It's about fractions/chance who is closest.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

This weekend in The Observer there will be a constituency poll bonanza from @DeltapollUK @PeterKellner1

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

I think the Brexit Party will storm the EU elections, but translating that to 20%+ in Westminster VI mid term is another thing entirely, and caution is all that I think should apply.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Wimbledon too close to call and Labour drift into third in Kensington. Tories looking ok in Finchley.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Three more constituency polls from @deltapolluk coming this evening in The Observer, scheduled for 7pm release. Full tables will be on our website.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

In future, I’m not going to bother tweeting about opinion poll methods (but someone really has to), I’m just going to hurl out a couple of focus group truths. Much more fun.

Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

I conducted focus groups in the NE just before election, and Labour-to-the-core voters despised Jeremy Corbyn & what he’d done the the party so much they could not vote for it even if grandparents turned in their grave. They didn’t mention Tony Blair much, except positively.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 months

“Gotten”. Shoot me now.

Opinium

@OpiniumResearch

2 months

A majority (54%) of those in the UK think that the economy has gotten worse in the past 12 months. A plurality (35%) are pessimistic about the economy in the next 12 months.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

So, if I used my 2015 online method I get most accurate 2017 outcome. Unfortunately 2015 method had EM winning by 4-points = worst. #ffs

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

8 years

The effectiveness of of great @ICMResearch #polling . @ianakirby reminds me it was 7 years ago today. I will happily take this to my grave.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Latest @DeltapollUK for the @DavidWooding @TheSun (vs last Sunday): Con 31% (-4) Lab 28% (+4) LD 17% (-1) BXP 13% (-1) Oth 10% (+4) 2049 adults 5-7th Sept.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

Splashing this on the front page is even braver than @YouGov doing it in the first place.

Jason Clark

@DCAJason

7 years

Interesting poll in tomorrow's @thetimes #ge2017 #tomorrowspaperstoday

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

1 year

@jamesjohnson252 @Mutteroo @PeoplePolling This is basic introduction to question wording stuff James. The MRS has an excellent course on it.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

6 years

@rcolvile The precise answer to your precise question Rob is this: at the 95% confidence interval 2000 interviews are correct to within +/-2.2% while 25,000 interviews are correct to within +/-0.6%.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

I’m one of the people in the industry. And this is bollocks. Shame on Bastani.

Aaron Bastani

@AaronBastani

5 years

Kellner is widely viewed as an unusually wrong pollster by people in polling community. Consistently. This is not a leftist thing @paulmasonnews - ask people in industry!

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Don’t forget to check in for your final set of @PeterKellner1 @michaelsavage @DeltapollUK Observer constituency polls tonight. Probably released at 7pm but that’s not my call.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Gotta be honest. I’m bemused by the polling variation. There’s nowhere near the methodological diffusion of 2017 (I don’t think), which means most pollsters are mostly doing the same things. This implies variation is largely down to panel used to generate the interviews. Scary.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

15 days

I put all the audiences in, both in 2010 and 2015. Easily the most difficult and stressful thing I’ve ever done. But polling companies do not select the questions, they collect them, and that’s different. The broadcasters choose.

Iain Dale

@IainDale

15 days

No. It was puerile, rude and could never have produced good answers. It’s the sort of thing that happens when you contract out the selection of questions to a sodding polling company,

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 years

Major report on social class in Britain by @InstituteGC and @PeterKellner1 published this morning, featuring 8,000 interviews from @DeltapollUK This was a joy to be associated with.

From Red Walls to Red Bridges: Politics After Class

www.institute.global

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

Check our new marginals xbreak in @guardian tables. Lab doing MUCH BETTER in their <10% marginals than Tories doing in their own.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

The only day when the word "brisk" is ever used.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

I guess you can rule us out of any herding now @DPJHodges ?!

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

8 years

Full tables for @ICMResearch @Channel4 #muslimPoll (with control and summary topline) can be found here

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Write up from @PeterKellner1 in The Observer on @DeltapollUK constituency polls in three London seats. #GE2019

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Something this #Election2019 has not yet seen - a lead for Labour. Among parents. @DeltapollUK for @MaryBoustedNEU @NEUnion Full data at

Parents More Likely To Vote Labour Than Tory At General Election, Poll Suggests

Exclusive: Deltapoll survey for the National Education Union suggests parents see the NHS as the most important issue in December 12 snap election.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 years

Whenever I fret about the accuracy of opinion polls, I always turn to economic indicators for reassurance.

Robert Colvile

@rcolvile

2 years

Wow. These were the Bank of England's inflation forecasts as of 13 months ago (via @stevetoy )

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Caller: are you doing a poll in constituency x? Me: I'm not saying, you'll have to wait for publication. Caller: I know you are, you polled me. Me: Why are you calling me then? Caller: You're obliged to tell me everything under BPC rules. Me: Sigh. Yes, when it's PUBLISHED.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 years

Just imagine being in the middle of a focus group on the economy when news of a certain resignation reaches you. There goes the discussion guide.....

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

10 months

Completely not buying any part of this.

Patrick Maguire

@patrickkmaguire

10 months

Jeremy Corbyn would deny Sadiq Khan a third term if he runs for London mayor next year, new polling suggests Without Corbyn, Khan beats Hall 33 per cent to 32 per cent When included, JC polls 15 per cent - Khan 25 per cent, Hall 30 per cent Hear more on @TimesRadio shortly

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

4 years

Well done @MattSingh_ If true, any survey looking at Brexit numbers not controlling for educ attainment about as far from ‘peeerless’ as it gets. I mean, it’s not as if that wasn’t the biggest polling lesson from 2016.

Matt Singh

@MattSingh_

4 years

I may be doing something wrong here... But it looks has though this sample has rather a lot of graduates. If we look at the working age (16-64) population (to compare with the APS), it looks like 50.6% have level 4 qualifications or higher. In the actual 2018 APS it was 39.2%

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Recently a brand new client wanted to ask a question which I refused to do, on the basis it was leading, emotionally driven and one of those questions we include in our polling joke question compilations. Unsurprised to see a competitor went and asked it.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Constituency polls in Finchley, Wimbledon and Kensington show Libdem surge. Data on Observer website and

Deltapoll | Polling

This is an example page. It's different from a blog post because it will stay in one place and will show up in your site navigation (in most themes). Most people start with an About page that...

deltapoll.co.uk

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Quite brilliant from @StephenDFisher and Dan Snow. I have been banging on for a while about panel used being much more likely to explain pollster outcomes this time around, so great to have some evidence on the subject Also this is a worry for me.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

3 years

I think we should poll what % of the population think we can grow concrete.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

I'm not sure I was expecting this, but I'm really pleased with how @DeltapollUK phone polls are matching up with MrP models. At times like these, don't underestimate how little crumbs of comfort give huge adrenaline bursts to worried pollsters.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

8 years

Everyone needs to calm down a bit. Please leave me alone so I can get the data to @guardian_clark

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

@ICMResearch @guardian tables has revised break for marginal seats. @Conservatives lead 48% vs 31% in Lab held seats <15% majority in E&W.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

Spot on, this.

Chris Terry-Enescu

@CJTerry

7 years

The Exit Poll: Chucking large amounts of money at a bunch of glorious nerds to find out the result 6 hours early. It is the best thing.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Thrilled that so far, the @DeltapollUK @PeterKellner1 @michaelsavage constituency polls appear to be really good. Only Kensington caused us trouble. Maybe not the BS that one news anchor suggested.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

7 years

This is fundamentally, completely, and without ambiguity, wrong.

(((Dan Hodges)))

@DPJHodges

7 years

@David_K_Clark @stephenkb No, it's not about competitive advantage at this stage, as we saw last time, it's about safety in numbers.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

8 years

#brexit polls were "wrong" is now universal narrative. During campaign there were more published polls saying Leave than saying Remain IIRC.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

"Look at the shares, not the lead". Sir Bob Worcester, about a zillion times. And he was right you know.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Good opinion research leaves little to no room for respondent or indeed analytical ambiguity.

Rob Ford

@robfordmancs

5 years

@MarinaHyde Bit concerned the question may not quite show this. The wording may encourage people to see agreement as “I am really committed to my preferred Brexit outcome” rather than “I support political violence”

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

8 years

@ICMResearch : @Conservatives 43% @UKLabour 27% @LibDems 8% @UKIP 13% @theSNP 4% @TheGreenParty 4% @Plaid_Cymru 1%

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

@DeltapollUK @PeterKellner1 @michaelsavage Can I take this back? We got Kensington right, and now Finchley too. Stunning.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

We are now into the phase where pundits chime in: ‘I hate the polls but as they now reinforce my own anecdotes/feel on the ground’ I’m ok to feed them in‘ (but if they’re wrong was I not clear I hated them all along)?

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

9 years

Let's stop with the anti @LordAshcroft stuff. His techniques same as @ICMResearch +/-, & right not to name candidates until last minute.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

1 year

Wisdom.

Hugo Rifkind

@hugorifkind

1 year

@stephenkb North London is North of Euston Road. South London is South of the river. I will not stand for this notion that Central London is in North London. That way madness lies.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

4 years

Twitter won't like this, but: it can be simultaneously true that there is uproar over Dom Cummings while focus groups participants sit back & wonder who he is & what the fuss is about. Polls may tank but groups can be a very different animal. Some people just don't give a shit.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

4 years

If a junior researcher put together a slide deck for the nation this bad, they would be ashamed (and probably fired without significant and fast paced signs of improvement).

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

We're estimating a 14-point Con win.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

One for @EnglandInEurope : The UK government should encourage a United Ireland as a solution to the Irish Border? Yes 38% No 25% DK 27% The RoI should leave the EU as a solution to the Irish Border? Yes 24% No 40% DK 36%

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

My timeline: give me polls, give me polls, now! More! Also my timeline: yeah but polls are a bit rubbish, innit.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

4 years

Completely my experience of him too. At the 1st ever TV leaders debate, he immediately bought me and my team a round of drinks as soon as he found out who we were. A true professional.

Jane Green

@ProfJaneGreen

4 years

Alastair Stewart is a kind, generous gent, and takes huge pride in getting it right. He has been very kind to me, and I'm so upset to see his ITV News career ending this way. Surely we can all make mistakes - unintended - apologise, and crack on...

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Do you think Brexit will ever end? @DeltapollUK 7-9sept, 2049 adults. Yes 41% No 35% DK 24%

Isabel Oakeshott

@IsabelOakeshott

5 years

You clearly don’t get out enough @labourleave @brexitparty_uk @Nigel_Farage

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

No doubt there will be a slew of polls tonight,and @DeltapollUK will be front and centre. Look out from us for national polling and the first of a big slate of constituency polls.....

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

4 years

Sadness.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

2 months

Most of the @DeltapollUK office will have to cancel holidays. If ever I were tempted to fix a poll just out of spite, this would be the time.

gabyhinsliff

@gabyhinsliff

2 months

Calling a snap summer election shortly after the lobby & most of your own MPs have booked summer hols on the understanding there wouldn't be a summer election would make for such a furiously bad-tempered campaign launch I'm almost curious to see it

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Humbly, few people know more about audiences and questions selected for live leaders’ debates than me, as I was involved right from the off before 2010 election. Everyone should back off the BBC, because it’s miles harder than you think.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

8 years

I want to be clear: in my view this is the most rigorous Muslim survey I've seen in the public domain, incl prior @ICMResearch surveys.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

BUT, just remember that overstating of a anti-European right of centre party in poll after poll is not unheard of, nor misunderstood as to why it might be the case.

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

From @PeterKellner1 and @DeltapollUK : will @DominicRaab survive in my home seat of Esher & Walton?

Could tactical voting result in a ‘Portillo moment’ for Dominic Raab?

The Brexiter foreign secretary’s comfortable 2017 majority is not unassailable as many Remain voters switch their allegiance

www.theguardian.com

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Busting this bubble a little. Past vote recall numbers for Labour are consistently lower than their actual share in 2017 i.e people are embarrassed to say they are voting Labour. Historically, this implies polls are underscoring Labour, if this phenom exists today.

Robert Colvile

@rcolvile

5 years

I haven’t run this past any pollsters, and it’s no more than a hunch. But I have a feeling Shy Tories may be a thing again this election. Been told so consistently that Tories are evil that they don’t want to admit it, but in the silence of the voting both...

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Maybe Scotland should consider suing RWC for allowing this game to go ahead....

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Martin Boon

@martinboon

5 years

Anthony has carved out a really valuable niche here on Twitter, to the benefit of all of us in the research industry. I for one really appreciate it. Thanks Anthony!

Anthony B. Masters

@anthonybmasters

5 years

It has been claimed a recent poll implied there was a 10 point Conservative lead in 2017. This criticism is ill-founded: Opinium use the earliest available recall in their weightings. The article discusses false recall. #GE2019 #GeneralElection2019

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