Steve Fisher @StephenDFisher Twitter profile

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 years

My local election seat change projections are: Con -281, Lab +304, LD +76 Separate estimates for England, Scotland and Wales in the blog post:

Forecasting Local Election net seat gains/losses 2022

by Stephen Fisher, 3rd May 2022. There are local elections tomorrow in England, Scotland, and Wales. Table 1 below shows my forecasts for net seat changes for each. They are based on projecting cha…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

BBC Projected House of Commons: Con 269 Lab 280 LD 29 Others 72 (including SNP on 50) Explainer:

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

New piece in @prospect_uk arguing that changes in electoral geography at the local elections suggest Labour is on course for a parliamentary majority, even if their poll lead narrows as expected:

Why changes in electoral geography will help Labour win a majority

The Conservatives are so far behind they need an unprecedented recovery to retain power

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

Average of final polls so far: Con 43, Lab 34, LD 12 Uniform change projection: Con majority of 40 If 2017 style polling error, Con lead 4 points, majority 10 If 2015 style polling error, Con lead 17 points, majority 116

Final combined forecast for the 2019 general election

By Stephen Fisher, John Kenny and Rosalind Shorrocks Since our first combined forecast at the start of the campaign, the number of forecasts for this general election has grown substantially. All o…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

My 2023 local election seat forecasts: Con -490 Lab +400 LD +20 Oth. +70 But lots of reasons why it might play out differently...

Local elections seat projections for 2023

By Stephen Fisher, 2nd May 2023. Changes in vote intention opinion polls typically provide an indication of headline net seat changes at local elections. This year presents a significant challenge …

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) for the 2019 local elections: Con 28 Lab 28 LD 19 Others 25 Only the second time all parties under 30%. Best Lib Dem share since 2010.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

30 days

Off to work on the exit poll with a brilliant team. Many thanks to all the interviewers and others @IpsosUK collecting the data. Wish us luck! To everyone registered, please vote and remember your ID.

What photo ID will you need to vote in the UK general election?

Everyone voting in person at the general election on 4 July will have to show valid photo ID.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

Conservatives are generally losing council seats in areas that voted Remain in 2016, but winning them in Leave areas

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

Very good thread

Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

7 years

1/ A lot of talk about what's going on in the polls. Forget shy voters and late swing, here's the decades old problem..

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 month

Wondering if MRP projections of devastating Tory losses from proportional change are plausible? @dibden_jake and I have reviewed the historical precedents:

Breaking the swingometer: historical precedents for proportional change

by Stephen Fisher and Jake Dibden, 26th June 2024 Seat projections for the Conservatives at next week’s general election range from really bad to totally dire. Given recent polls, traditional unifo…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

A blog on interpreting turnout and change in vote share for the #EP2019 election results, with @whatukthinks @PME_Politics and @EMMacfarlane_

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

Without coalition partners Tories need a majority. That would require a 10-point swing between polls now and the election—bigger than any post-war Con gov in final 17 months. Bigger even than the 7.5-point swing that Margaret Thatcher enjoyed as a result of the Falklands War.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

My take on the prime minister’s predicament if she loses the meaningful vote on her deal: another referendum becomes quite likely

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

My English local elections seats forecast from polls Con +430 Lab -315 LD -30

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

New post on variation between the polls and pollsters, with @DanSnow96 tl;dr Differences in published vote-intention figures seem to be mostly due to different kinds of sample.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

3 months

Updated analysis of Local Election Results 2024 by John Curtice ( @whatukthinks ), @PME_Politics , @robfordmancs and myself. Many thanks to all the @BBCNews team:

Curtice: Sheer scale of defeat will worry Conservatives

www.bbc.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

3 months

My local election seat projections (corrected tweet to match the blog): Con -390 Lab +320 LD +100

Local election seat projections for 2024

By Stephen Fisher, 1st May 2024. Changes in vote intention opinion polls typically provide an indication of headline net seat changes at local elections. Most of the seats up this year were last fo…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

Benchmarks for today’s elections as local council elections For all parties: Net gains of seats and councils - good Losses – bad For voters (please vote & remember ID): Turnout above 32.7% (from 2019) – good Lower – bad For all candidates: Good on you for standing!

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

Con have lost 30% of their seats declared so far. Gains, as approx. shares of Tory losses: Lab 53% LD 34% Green 23% Sums to more than 100% because Others down. Based on 5891/8081 seats declared so far.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

The last time a PM overplayed her hand on Europe, Tory MPs surprised many by elevating a dull but loyal Chancellor to avoid a brash blonde.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

Some of my thoughts comparing the situation for Labour now with what they faced in Scotland last time.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

May is going into the general election with a bigger lead in the PNS than Thatcher did in 83 and 87.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

9 years

Very good constituency results analysis from @robfordmancs http://t.co/mOy6qLXATb

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

9 years

Some preliminary constituency results analysis. Tory majority from LD losses. Incumbency helped Con more than LD http://t.co/3P2ZObmG1s

How did the Tories win a majority?

By Stephen Fisher The election outcome was a shocking defeat for Labour and a remarkable victory for the Tories, both relative to expectations from the opinion polls and considering that you have t…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

ICYMI. My blog on how there are a remarkable number of parallels between the politics of Brexit and those of Prohibition in the US a century ago:

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

8 years

My local election seat forecasts: Con +20 (-75 to +110) Lab -150 (-275 to -25) LD +95 (+55 to +130)

Forecasting Local Election Seats 2016

by Stephen Fisher Local elections are supposed to be about local matters, but the electoral fortunes of councillors and would-be councillors depend very heavily on the popularity of their parties n…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

3 months

Many thanks to @GuardianHeather and @ProfJaneGreen for their great contributions to last night's retrospective on the local elections and look ahead to the general election @TrinityOxford . Recording with them and me here:

British politics - what happened in the locals and what might happen...

Live stream from Trinity college

www.youtube.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 years

New article @ElectoralStdies with @_johnkenny @wouterpoortinga , Gisela Böhm, and Linda Steg, on the links between climate change attitudes and voting in Europe: Differences between party families aren't just about left-right and liberalism...

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 month

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 200 with a 20-point lead over the Conservatives on votes. See details of the Fourth Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny , Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at:

Fourth combined forecast for the 2024 general election

By Stephen Fisher, John Kenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk. 19th June 2024. All the different sources still point to a large Labour majority. On average across the different kinds of forecast, th…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

An explainer, by John Curtice @whatukthinks and myself, for the BBC Projected Nation Share (PNS) of the local election vote: what it is, why it is important, how it is calculated and issues this year ...

Understanding the Local Elections Projected National Share (PNS) in 2023

by John Curtice and Stephen Fisher, 3rd May 2023. Much of the speculation about what might happen in the English local elections this week has focused on how many seats each party could or should g…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

3 months

Analysis of Local Election Results 2024, including the PNS, by John Curtice ( @whatukthinks ), @PME_Politics @robfordmancs and myself:

Curtice: Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble

Labour would have won 34% and Tories 25% if local results were replicated across the country, says Sir John.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

Congratulations to @benlauderdale @jblumenau @doug_rivers @YouGov on the amazing success of their MRP estimates!

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

My blog, with John Curtice, on the meaning and method behind the Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) and projected House of Commons calculation for today's local elections:

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

7-point lead would win Labour 315 seats, but SNP travails and improved electoral geography for Labour would likely raise that to c. 341, a majority of 32

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 years

My piece for @prospect_uk on Labour's performance in the local elections. Thanks to @prospect_clark for great advice, editing, and plugging!

Local elections 2022: The media got it wrong. Labour did make real progress

The Brexit realignment that has worked against Labour actually unwound slightly this year. That is excellent news for the party’s prospects

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 years

A note, with John Curtice @whatukthinks , on the methodology for the BBC's local elections Projected National Share of the vote (PNS), and how it may differ from Rallings and Thrasher's National Equivalent Vote (NEV):

Understanding the Local Elections Projected National Share (PNS) in 2022

by John Curtice and Stephen Fisher, 4th May 2022. Much of the speculation about what might happen in the English local elections tomorrow has focused on how many seats each party could or shou…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

BBC Projected National Share of the local election vote (PNS): Con 35 Lab35 LD16 Others14

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 month

Delighted and proud to have helped with this @UNDP @UniofOxford global survey of climate change attitudes covering 77 countries and 87% of the global population.

PEOPLES' CLIMATE VOTE

peoplesclimate.vote

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

My take on the politics of the Brexit process and Tory party leadership. Tory MPs face a choice between keeping May, who is likely to end up supporting a referendum, or probably a hard Brexiteer who ends up with a no-deal Brexit after failed renegotiation.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 years

BBC Projected National Share (PNS) of the local election vote 2022 is Con 30, Lab 35, LD 19, Others 16. Explainer at

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

The Conservatives have lost about a quarter (net) of the seats they were defending. The number of losses in each council is largely the product of how many seats they had to lose.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 month

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 194 with an 18-point lead over the Conservatives on votes. See details of the Final Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny , Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at:

Sixth and final combined forecast for the 2024 general election

By Stephen Fisher, John Kenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk. 3rd July 2024. 10am, 4th July. Updated to correct a minor typo. Forecasts published since the post below was published late last n…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

New working paper on how governments in the UK tend to win elections, but lose if there is an economic crisis. Combination of that and post-crisis changes of PM explains 22 of 27 elections since 1922, and all since 1987:

Why governments lose: UK elections since 1922

By Stephen Fisher, 12th April 2023. Governments in the UK tend to win elections, but lose if there is an economic crisis. That pattern explains the outcomes of 19 out of the 27 elections since…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

2023 Labour lead in the PNS is just short of those Labour achieved before Blair's 1997 general election success, but still better than all the other Labour leads in the PNS under Con government, including 2012 as the previous record since 2010:

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

Fifth combined forecast for #GE19 with @_johnkenny and @RosieShorrocks Con majority 42, Con lead 9.5 points, and probability of a Con majority 71%.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 years

Projected House of Commons seats from the PNS (with changes from 2019 GE): Con 253 (-112), Lab 291 (+88), LD 31 (+20), Others 75 (+4)

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

9 years

Great exit poll explainer by the excellent key statistician on the team, Jouni Kuha http://t.co/U9HXssVQyK

Explaining the Exit Poll

At 10pm on election day, the ballots will close, and the counting will begin. It may be many hours before it becomes clear which party has the most seats in the new parliament, and many days until …

blogs.lse.ac.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

If the Conservatives continue losing at the same rate, and so lose 30% of their seats still to declare they will be down by -1025 when all the results are in.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 months

My postmortem on the UK 2019 general election forecasts with @_johnkenny and @RosieShorrocks : Polls did well, and uniform change from polls was a good guide to seats - better than betting markets and most other methods.

How did the election forecasts do in 2019?

By Stephen Fisher, John Kenny, and Rosalind Shorrocks. 29th May 2024 Pretty well. Whereas many of the forecasts for the 2017 British general election incorrectly pointed to a Conservative majo…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 months

First Combined Forecast for UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny , Paul Furey and Polina Ryzhuk: Average of forecasts suggest Labour have an 86% chance of winning a majority, and are estimated to win with a lead of 20-points and majority of 188.

First combined forecast for the 2024 general election

By Stephen Fisher, John Kenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk. 30th May 2024. Here we combine seats and vote share forecasts from a variety of sources including betting markets, polls, statistical f…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 month

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 200 with a 20-point lead on votes (same as last week). See details of the Fifth Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny , Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at:

Fifth combined forecast for the 2024 general election

By Stephen Fisher, John Kenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk. 26th June 2024. The average of different kinds of seats forecasts points to a Labour majority of 200; the same as last week. There…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

Analysis of the local election results by John Curtice, @PME_Politics , @robfordmancs and myself, @BBCNews

Local elections: The main parties have been punished

It was a bad night for the Tories and for Labour, while the Lib Dems, Greens and independents prospered.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

@RosieShorrocks @_johnkenny Write up includes a plea for more Welsh, and especially Scottish, polls. The latest, so far as we know, are getting on to a month old and those nations have relatively more marginals, especially Scotland.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

@HzBrandenburg @sarahobolt @DeltapollUK Thanks. You're right the conclusion to my @DeltapollUK blog is completely wrong due to a transcription error and writing too quickly. Sorry! May's Deal is the Condorcet winner. Blog post will be revised asap.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

Looking forward to talking about local elections with @ProfJaneGreen and @katyballs at 5pm, 27 April @PembrokeOxford . Free to attend online or in person. Register at...

Local Elections and Beyond: Shifting Tides in British Politics

Please join us for an insightful panel discussion, featuring three esteemed experts in British politics at Pembroke College, Oxford.

www.eventbrite.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

Labour have, since the PNS started in 1982, only managed to move from opposition into government once, in 1997. That was preceded by PNS leads of 10 points or more. Neither Neil Kinnock’s 8-point lead in 1990, nor Ed Miliband’s 7-point lead in 2012 proved to be enough.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

What explains the narrowing of GE2017 polls? Women – both young and older | British Politics and Policy at LSE

What explains the narrowing of GE2017 polls? Women – both young and older

Rosalind Shorrocks recently reviewed the ways in which gender matters for GE2017, showing that, although Labour is particularly popular among young women, this was the demographic most undecided ab…

blogs.lse.ac.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

Labour gaining seats on average where Leave/Remain 50:50 and gaining more where Remain did better

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

3 years

Great piece by @Dannythefink on the electoral pendulum model and opposition strategy, featuring work by @MattLebo4 @primarymodel16 @vavreck and yours truly:

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

Final combined forecast with @_johnkenny and @RosieShorrocks Con: 341 seats, 8.9 point lead and 73% chance of a majority. Write up includes full table of seats forecasts and final polls with UNS projections:

Final combined forecast for the 2019 general election

By Stephen Fisher, John Kenny and Rosalind Shorrocks Since our first combined forecast at the start of the campaign, the number of forecasts for this general election has grown substantially. All o…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

Third combined forecast: Probability of a Conservative majority = 0.65 Forecast majority = 58 With @RosieShorrocks and @_johnkenny

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

Both the confidence vote and promising to step down before 2022 make it more likely that Theresa May will pivot to a referendum: she has more freedom and less future career to lose. AKA me digging myself further into a hole:

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

A governing party falling further where it started stronger is an extremely important development if replicated in a general election. It helps explain the scale of the collapse of the Liberal Democrats in 2015, Labour in 2010, and the Conservatives in 1997.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 month

Honoured (and nervous) to be speaking at 5pm UK time at this: Daily Press Briefing by the Spokesperson of the UN Secretary-General. Guests: Cassie Flynn (UNDP) and Stephen Fisher (University of Oxford) on the People's Climate Vote 2024

Cassie Flynn (UNDP) and Stephen Fisher (University of Oxford) on the launch the second edition of...

Hybrid press conference by Cassie Flynn, UNDP Global Director Climate Change and Stephen Fisher, Professor of Political Sociology, University of Oxford. They will launch the second edition of the...

webtv.un.org

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 years

Only saw this great piece from @BNHWalker after I wrote mine. It makes the same main point but with different presentation of evidence, and a different take on the variation.

Local Elections 2022: Did Labour really underperform in the Red Wall?

The headline results disguise the advances Keir Starmer’s party has made since the 2019 general election.

sotn.newstatesman.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

New blog with @caprosser on his Local Elections based forecasting model. The 2018 and 2019 local elections suggested a borderline Tory majority. Con 329 seats. Just 10 seats lower than @YouGov MRP, and same predicted Lab seats (231).

The 2018 and 2019 local election results suggested the Conservatives might struggle to get a...

By Chris Prosser and Stephen Fisher. Every May local election results are analysed as indicators of the state of the political parties and scrutinised for what they tell might tell us about the out…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

Labour’s likely final tally of 261 is only 3 seats up on Gordon Brown’s in 2010

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

2017 PNS: Con 38 Lab 27 LD 18 UKIP 5 Rest 12

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

My @DeltapollUK blog conclusion is completely wrong due to a transcription error in graphic 3 and writing too quickly. Sorry! May's Deal was the Condorcet winner as you can work out from graphic 2. Blog post will be revised asap.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

9 years

History suggests gov setback not recovery from 25 days out. True for 10/14 last elecs & 2 recoveries just bias http://t.co/E0AVMjjCeZ

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

Pattern of party support across councils in #EP2019 in GB by % voting Leave in 2016.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 years

Delighted to have worked on this with ⁦ @EMMacfarlane_ ⁩ , ⁦ @PME_Politics ⁩ , ⁦ @robfordmancs ⁩ , ⁦⁦ @WalkerJuliaK ⁩ , ⁦ @SelinaSeth ⁩, the great BBC team, and of course John Curtice ⁦ @whatukthinks ⁩, who is still going strong.

Election results 2022: Prof Sir John Curtice on what they show so far

Results so far on Friday show Lib Dems, not Labour, capitalising on Tory losses.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

Boris Johnson won 125 of the seats that Blair (notionally, given boundary changes) won in 2005 when Labour last had a majority. Those seats they won in common represent just over a third of each of their tallies. #GE2019

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

My polls based forecast with @jmrgoldenberg Con 9.5 lead Con 48 majority Pr(Con majority) = 87%

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

My analysis in @prospect_uk is consistent with the excellent piece by John Curtice @whatukthinks (). Mine brings in additional factors: one bad for Labour (likely lead narrowing; but new electoral geography more than compensates

Were the election results due to Labour success or Tory failure? | John Curtice

Maybe that will prove enough to deliver the party a victory when the next general election comes – but perhaps it would not be wise for them to rely on it, writes John Curtice

www.independent.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

Good analysis from @MattSingh_

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

Incumbency effects and boundary changes are not discussed in the piece, but roughly factored into my electoral geography adjustment. Main point is I think the greater drop in the Con vote in Con seats will be more important for seat outcomes.

Why changes in electoral geography will help Labour win a majority

The Conservatives are so far behind they need an unprecedented recovery to retain power

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

My blog on seats projections reconciling GB and Scottish polls: Con 390 Lab 181 LD 9 SNP 47 Con Majority 130

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

My local election seat predictions: Con -700 Lab +590 LD +350

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 months

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 192, and a 21-point lead over the Conservatives on votes. See details of the Third Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny , Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at:

Third combined forecast for the 2024 general election

By Stephen Fisher, John Kenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk. 12th June 2024. All the different sources of seat forecasts still point to a large Labour majority. On average across the different kin…

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

8 years

My first Brexit referendum forecast with @alanjrenwick : Remain 58% vote 87% chance of winning. Based on x-nat historic and current uk polls

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

. @rafaelbehr and @AnushkaAsthana , your helpful writing, on the political pendulum and attitudes to Boris Johnson respectively, are linked in my piece with @MattLebo4 here:

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

8 years

My blog post on why was Trump elected looks at change since 2012 and why Romney voters also supportedTrump

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

A regressive alliance will make stopping the Tories much harder | John Curtice | Opinion | The Guardian

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

. @Andrew_Adonis My letter to Times + Andreas Murr: Leader with biggest margin among MPs PM in 10/13 elecs since 66

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

1 year

Con vote dropped more where they started strongest, especially where they were defending a seat from 2019. In such places the swing to Labour since 2019 was five points greater than elsewhere. The same pattern is true on a smaller scale for swings from 2021 and from 2022.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

8 years

Many congratulations to @chrishanretty on accurate and confident predictions as early as 2am

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

My local elections analysis for Prospect

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

My quick blog on How Theresa May lost her majority and how Scots have kept the Tories in government

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

There was not a single seat where the UKIP share of the vote went up.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

7 years

Surprise, surprise! (again) The 2017 British general election exit poll, by Curtice, Kuha @jon_mellon and myself. £

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

My corrected and extended @DeltapollUK blog: - No Condorcet cycle. Sorry about the excitement-generating error. - May’s Deal is the Condorcet winner, but any of the three options (Deal, No Deal, or Remain) could emerge ahead.

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

3 years

Very grateful for this award for the Peoples' Climate Vote. We are especially glad of the opportunity to work with @cassie_flynn @EriYamasumi and others at @undp and @BrowningEnviro and elsewhere. Please check out the report at:

OxfordSocialSciences

@oxsocsci

3 years

👏Congratulations @StephenDFisher @DanSnow96 @MarthaKirby_ & @ZackG_Politics @SociologyOxford ; Highly Commended in the @ESRC IAA #O2RBImpactAwards for influencing public & government awareness of climate change attitudes through global media engagement

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

ICYMI my piece with Andreas Murr. Since both Con and Lab MPs have voted on leaders, 12/15 elections won by the party leader with the biggest winning margin among own MPs. Starmer margin on Lab MP noms (25.9%) larger than Johnson's first round 22.7%.

Crunching decades of leadership election results suggests Labour should pick Keir Starmer

Historical analysis shows he would stand a better chance than the other candidates of leading his party to victory

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

3 months

My Local election results summary (8pm Friday 8th May 2024)

Local election results summary (8pm Friday 8th May 2024)

by Stephen Fisher What we know at 8pm on Friday 3rd May 2024, after 1 by-election, 98 out of 107 councils, 2199 councillors, 4 Mayoralties, and 27 out of 37 Police and Crime Commissioners declared …

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

2 months

Congratulations to Sir Robert Chote. We look forward to welcoming him as President of @TrinityOxford next year.

Trinity College

@TrinityOxford

2 months

We are pleased to announce the appointment of Sir Robert Chote as our next College President. He will take up the post on 1 September 2025, succeeding Dame Hilary Boulding. Read more:

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

5 years

My piece ⁦ @prospect_uk ⁩ on how the Conservatives won #GE2019

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

6 years

My blog on how locals predict future general elections. A 10 point PNS lead would signal change of government.

How big a lead does Labour need in the local elections to be on course to win the next general...

By Stephen Fisher. People often wonder what local election results bode for the next general election. Here is a quick look at the relationship between the BBC Projected National Share of the vote …

electionsetc.com

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Steve Fisher

@StephenDFisher

11 years

Despite current Labour lead, past polls suggest Tory win in 2015 with 57% chance of overall majority, 28% hung parl. http://t.co/DlHkGUmteV

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