Environmental writer & science advocate. Next book: Nuclear war & how to avoid it, out May 2025. Advisor to
@MohamedNasheed
at
@TheCVF
,
@weplanetint
strategist.
Do you remember the famous 97% study - that 97% of climate science supported the consensus on human-caused climate change? Well we have just published an update for 2012-2021 papers in the same journal, Environmental Research Letters. The figure is now... drumroll please...99.9%!
It's over for nuclear in Germany. The SDP-Green coalition has won a vote in the Bundestag backing more coal burning so that the three remaining nuclear plants can be switched off as planned this year. Climate targets may have to be abandoned as a result.
With each new Russian atrocity in Ukraine, calls for NATO intervention increase. Are we sleepwalking towards nuclear war? The appetite for risk is increasing with the horror of civilian casualties. Putin is cornered and may escalate. What's the worst that can happen? Thread: 1/12
New Nature paper out today
states very clearly what is needed if governments are serious about limiting global heating to 1.5C, as agreed at Paris.
Spoiler: No new fossil fuelled infrastructure, anywhere, ever. From now on.
Read thread for details...
Greenpeace and its allies just won a court case in the Philippines blocking Golden Rice from reaching millions of vitamin A-deficient young children. If this isn't a crime against humanity, I don't know what is. Avoidable deaths could total 100,000s. More:
Finally, there's an environmental group dedicated to stopping this madness. If this makes you as angry as it does me, please join
@letsreplanet
We've just won on the EU taxonomy. Most Germans support keeping nuclear switched on - the tide is turning.
Here's the full article published by
@ScienceAlly
with all the above facts together with important context and sources from the peer-reviewed literature. Please do read and share - the word count is only 1,500. 12/12. END
Oh, and nuclear in the UK is now planned to be carbon NEGATIVE, with the new Sizewell C plant potentially deploying air capture technology to use waste heat to sequester 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 a year. Eat your heart out, coal-addicted Germany!
Disastrous news from the Philippines- the Court of Appeals has sided with Greenpeace and the antis in blocking vit-A enhanced Golden Rice, which is now in widespread cultivation in the country. All planting must now stop, harming the interests of millions.
Scientists are running out of words to describe the dramatic acceleration in global warming - Aug and now Sept 2023 were the hottest months ever recorded on Earth. The planet is entering dangerous territory, unprecedented for as much as 3 million years.
This is huge climate news: the PM of Bangladesh is calling for developing countries to stop paying debts in order to fund essential adaptation now that the IPCC report has definitively linked extreme weather loss & damage impacts to climate change.
“..re-assess CVF countries international debt burdens in response to the climate emergency and call international financial institutions, loan providers and donors to declare their consensus in supporting efforts towards restructuring internal loan..” PM Sheikh Hasina
Finland's national Green Party has voted to endorse nuclear power in its manifesto, representing a historic moment in the evolution of the global environmental movement. Full story:
But this is why cool heads MUST ultimately prevail, even as emotions run high. The price of nuclear war is planetary suicide. No-one wins. Neither Zelensky nor Putin. It won’t save lives in Ukraine - it simply takes the death toll from the thousands into the billions. 11/12
Eating grass-fed organic beef is the dietary equivalent of flying a private jet, yet many green-minded people seem to think the opposite. Once again,
@GeorgeMonbiot
sets them straight.
The current wind lull in Europe is a big reality check for the renewables-only crowd. The reality is that no storage tech is remotely close to being able to run a whole continent for 2 weeks with low sun and no wind. If nuclear's out of the picture, only fossil fuels remain.
Germany says the earliest it can get off Russian oil and gas is 2025. The EU says 2027. This is NOT true. They could stop buying Putin's dirty fossil fuels IMMEDIATELY if they wanted to truly support the people of Ukraine. In this thread I'll show you how...
#switchoffputin
1/12
Sri Lanka just did a massive experiment in converting the entire country to organic agriculture through banning imported artificial fertilizer. It helped push half a million people into poverty. When faith collides with reality...
1,500 private jet flights to Davos for global elite to talk about climate change: And then they wonder why ordinary folk get cynical about carbon taxes that disproportionately hurt the less well-off?
“The elephant in the room at Cop27 is the cow." It's extraordinary that the meat and livestock industry - which gobbles up more than a quarter of the planet's surface - is not able to be discussed at the COP.
With memories of the Cold War fading, some seem to suggest that nuclear war is worth risking. That is not what the science says. Nuclear war scenarios have been thoroughly evaluated using climate models - the same ones used by the IPCC to project global warming. 2/12
According to the IPCC, our remaining 1.5C carbon budget is 420-580 Gt CO2. (To have a 50-66% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C)
What does this mean? It means ALL PLANNED, PERMITTED AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION fossil infrastructure must be CANCELLED. Paging
@ExtinctionR
!
Here's what we need to do:
- No new coal or gas power plants, anywhere, ever.
- Immediate transition to fully electric transport (no more diesel, petrol)
- Stop all oil/coal/gas exploration (bye bye Shell/BP/Exxon)
- Massive renewables+nuclear deployment
- Decarbonise industry
Surface temperatures plummet. The weather stays below freezing throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer. e.g. in Iowa temps remain below 0°C for 730 days straight. There is no growing season. This is what my generation used to call a 'nuclear winter'. 6/12
This would cause an estimated 770 million direct deaths. These people are vaporised, incinerated, buried in flattened buildings or die within days from acute radiation sickness. In the US about a fifth of the population is killed outright. They are the lucky ones. 4/12
Yay! Tanzanian farmers will no longer have access to drought-tolerant maize! Now they can stay malnourished and their kids can stay out of school. "Huge win" indeed.
@foe_us
you are an embarrassment to the environmental movement. Your opposition to science is shocking and immoral
Dear
@nhk_news
- please stop siding with the anti-vaccine cult and instead report on the
#MaddoxPrize
of
@rikomrnk
. Young women die from cervical cancer because of what you're doing. You shame the media profession!
Anti-GMO activists have managed to convince the Philippines supreme court to block the release of Bt eggplant and Golden Rice. The former reduces pesticides, the latter stops kids going blind from Vit A deficiency. This is a travesty of justice and a victory for misinformation.
By years 3 & 4 after the nuclear exchange, global rainfall has fallen by half. It takes over a decade for anything like climatic normality to return to the planet. This is why radiation is unimportant. Long before any cancers show up, most people will already be dead. 7/12
As President Zelensky says below, by buying Russian oil and gas Europe is financing genocide against the Ukrainian people. Our
@letsreplanet
polling - carried out by Savanta ComRes and released today - shows that 70% of European citizens would support an immediate boycott.
The models are eerily specific. Averaged over 5 years, China sees a reduction in food calories of 97.2 percent, France by 97.5 percent, Russia by 99.7 percent, the UK by 99.5 percent and the US by 98.9 percent. In all these countries, virtually everyone starves to death. 9/12
This is because almost all those who survive the initial bomb blasts die in the subsequent global famine. Food stocks are quickly exhausted, and less than a quarter of the population of most countries even lives past year 1. Dying from starvation is horrible. 8/12
Firestorms from the explosions pour 150 Tg (teragrams) of soot into the atmosphere from burning cities and forests. Rising to the stratosphere, these black carbon particles block 60-70% of incoming sunlight, causing worldwide gloom. They also destroy most of the ozone layer. 5/12
The US and Russia have deployable nuclear weapons inventories of roughly 4,000 warheads each, with many thousands more held in reserve. Over the last decade, scientists have studied a scenario where roughly half the inventories are detonated, involving 4,400 nuclear blasts. 3/12
Despite pledging to peak emissions by 2030, China has gone on a coal plant-building spree. Total of 247 GW is currently in planning or development, six times Germany's entire coal capacity.
The good news is that this probably does not cause a species-level extinction of Homo sapiens. It's also not as bad as the end-Cretaceous mass extinction that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Some humans survive to eke out a living on a devastated, barren planet. 10/12
World ruminant livestock numbers have passed 4 billion, representing greater mass than all humans and wild mammals combined. This is the Anthropocene made flesh.
Greenpeace is getting serious media pushback now on Golden Rice. We need to keep the pressure on, defend Filipino scientists & farmers growing vit A-enhanced rice, and ultimately help save lives of 1000s of malnourished children.
Or we ditch the 1.5C target and go for 2C instead. That means:
- 99% of coral reefs extinct
- 65 million more people exposed to deadly heat
- 2x as many plants, 3x animals lose 50% of their habitat as 1.5C
- Arctic sea ice disappears
- 10 million displaced by rising seas
This is HUGE - after decades of implacable opposition to nuclear power, the Union of Concerned Scientists has reversed its position and now seeks to keep nuclear plants in the US open. Why? Because nukes closed early will be replaced by fossil fuels:
Pro-nuclear environmentalists rally in Paris against Greenpeace, which is advocating closure of reactors despite the inevitable resulting rise in carbon emissions.
#ClimateEmergency
The way activist groups abused science and sidelined evidence-based policy in the glyphosate saga made me ashamed to be an environmentalist. Here's the piece I never wanted to write:
Here is the full paper, which is open access (no paywall) in ERL. It explains the methodology, and also links to all the data files - how we rated the different papers, calculated the % of sceptical ones, and which they are.
Can somebody please tell the EU that nuclear is zero-carbon? At the moment it's excluded from 'green transition' by being lumped in with natural gas. Ideological groupthink perhaps? Or the malign influence of anti-nuclear greens?
"For two years the ten MPs of the party of Arlene Foster [DUP] have dominated UK political calculations. That party got about half the number of votes that produced a single Green MP."
@DAaronovitch
on the unfairness of UK electoral system:
@CarolineLucas
I'm feeling a bit alone here. I'd love it if authors and artists showed their love and appreciation for
@hayfestival
and other literary festivals now facing extinction due to misplaced activist pressure. Please support these vital cultural events.
Note to news media on Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant attack - do NOT take this 'analysis' from Greenpeace as a serious contribution. This is an opportunistic way to push their anti-nuclear message, and is shameful under the circumstances.
"Had California and Germany spent on nuclear what they instead spent on renewables, both places would already have 100% clean power." One of the architects of the previous 'Green New Deal' on why it failed -
Be one of 50k people across 🌍 persuading the 🇩🇪German government to keep its nuclear electricity.
Your personal share of the emissions saved - by not burning lignite coal - will be bigger in one year than your carbon footprint over your whole life.
Here's how 🧵
France is now aiming to be carbon neutral by 2050, so must abandon earlier Green-inspired targets to reduce nuclear power. Why do so many people talk about 'climate emergency' but continue to oppose carbon-free nuclear? Don't they really believe it?
Coal-to-nuclear is the smartest climate idea I've heard for a decade. In the US there are nearly 400 available sites - using existing grid connections, turbines etc to make nuclear cheaper, retaining high-paying jobs in communities, and eliminating CO2.
But where are we ACTUALLY heading?
- carbon emissions at an all-time high, 37Gt in 2018, 2% annual growth:
- current policies still take us potentially over 4 degrees = climate catastrophe
Having ignored 139 Nobel laureates and the voices of Filipino scientists, will
@Greenpeace
continue its colonial campaign against Golden Rice even when criticised by the Observer?
What an extraordinary statistic: the world's richest 1% are responsible to the same CO2 emissions as the poorest 50% of the world's population. Global injustice is destroying the planet, not global development.
@oxfamgb
@XRebellionUK
The largest-ever study of the impacts of 'GMO' Bt cotton in China show dramatic and sustained reductions in the use of pesticides. Great news, eh
@Greenpeace
?
Green groups are jubilant at their European court defeat of the scientific community over gene editing. But will they rue the day they became so explicitly 'anti-science' as seeking to ban a whole category of scientific research and innovation? My report:
Done? OK, so now take the 188 from the 846 - but still leaves 658 Gt of committed emissions. Damn! Still over budget.
Therefore... to have a better than 50:50 chance of meeting the 1.5C goal another 100-200 Gt-equiv of power plants, cars, industry etc MUST BE CLOSED EARLY.
Hundreds of tonnes of Golden Rice are in limbo and could be destroyed following Greenpeace's disastrous court 'win' in the Philippines, which will undermine food security in an entire nation. Here's the latest:
... and much more (as I'll outline in the new Six Degrees book). The carbon budget for 2 degrees is bigger, 1170-1500 Gt CO2. Phew - still some wriggle room then!
But keeping to this bigger 2C budget means:
...reducing emissions by 5% per year STARTING FROM NOW. Not 2030, now.
European court plumbs the depths of scientific absurdity with today's gene editing decision - random mutagenesis is OK, while precision editing is a 'GMO' and therefore borderline illegal. Go figure! Like saying doctors can use blunderbuss but not scalpel.
The Arctic is now experiencing an 'abrupt climate change event' comparable in magnitude to the massive and very rapid shifts during the last ice age. This is off the scale.
Kenya's new president has rescinded the country's long-standing GMO ban, because science says it's safe, and high food prices are causing widespread malutrition. Greenpeace protests, saying it reduces Kenyans' right to choose. Choose what? Starvation?
It may be annoying to have hippies and vicars blocking your route to work, but let's take a minute to acknowledge just how damn prescient
@InsulateLove
were in drawing attention to the urgency of energy efficiency. If we'd listened, there would be no cost of living crisis today.
Fantastic news that the rules in England will change to allow gene editing of crops with no additional regulatory hurdles. Strong pro-science signal from UK govt - hopefully the EU will learn from this example.
Existing infrastructure - if operated until the end of its lifetime - commits us to 658 billion tonnes (Gt) CO2 future emissions. That's -
358 Gt from electricity (mainly power plants)
162 from industry
64 from transport, mostly on-road vehicles
Seriously bad news from Italy. Field trial of new rice variety developed using gene editing - non-GMO, aiming to reduce fungicide chemical use - destroyed by anti-tech vandals.
This should be a hugely shocking finding: that the President of the United States was the single greatest source of COVID misinformation in the world. Amazing work by
@ScienceAlly
lead author
@Sarah_Evanega
, am proud to be a co-author.
Virtually all of today's advocacy on food and ag is based around the romantic agrarian fantasies of rich, well-fed people. Never having missed a meal, they demand policies that would bring back famine. Please read this superb essay by
@GeorgeMonbiot
Some of the most promising coronavirus vaccine candidates use recombinant DNA, the technology that anti-GMO types have been fighting to ban for 20 years. The lesson? We need science to survive.
Greenpeace is still opposing Golden Rice, despite the fact that this Vitamin A-enriched food could save the lives and sight of thousands of malnourished young children.
That Germany will close its two remaining nuclear fission plants next year despite a looming power crunch and a desperate shortage of clean energy is looking dumber every day. Why not close the coal straight away and leave the fission running longer?
These are the most important climate protests in Europe. Germany's plan to keep burning coal until 2038 is a guarantee of climate disaster, and activists should use every tool in the box to fight coal extraction and burning.
Please support the most important Europe-wide action this year:
- With nuclear we can
#switchoffputin
- European citizens support it
- Net Zero requires it
- Environmentalists in 10 countries say 'ja bitte!'
Be there & show the EU the green movement is no longer anti-nuclear.
How can anyone seriously argue that the danger of nuclear accidents outweighs the dangers of climate change? The answer comes at the end - the author runs an offshore wind company... Follow the money!
Can somebody please explain to Greenpeace that gas is a fossil fuel which emits carbon, while nuclear is carbon-free? It isn't actually that complicated.
The main barrier to nuclear power helping solve climate change is not economic, technical or even political - it is psychological. Something about the way nuclear is framed sparks mass dread and fear. The mythologising of Chernobyl is the latest symptom:
How long until
#NuclearFusion
becomes a useful contributor to clean energy? "Probably decades", admit the scientists behind this supposed breakthrough. Fun science, but entirely irrelevant for the climate emergency and meeting the Paris goals. Meanwhile...
I would like to express my solidarity with
@GeorgeMonbiot
in his withdrawing from the Science Museum 'Climate Talks' series in protest at their funding from oil companies. I am also down to speak at the series, but will withdraw too unless
@sciencemuseum
stops taking dirty money.
BREAKING:
@Cambridge_Uni
complicit in greenwashing again
Earlier today, the environmentalist
@GeorgeMonbiot
withdrew from a Science Museum panel because of its continued links with BP and Equinor. We've now discovered that Emily Shuckburgh of
@CambridgeZero
is also a panellist.
We need to rapidly accelerate the transition to alt-protein and plant-based diets, in order to release land used for animals/animal feeds to nature restoration, rewilding and carbon sequestration.
(Source: ; x axis is 1990-2020)
But there's more: over 1,000 GW of fossil-fuelled power plants are planned, permitted or in construction. (20% in China).
That gives us another 188 Gt committed future CO2 emissions.
TOTAL: 846 Gt "if all proposed plants built and all infrastructure operated".
"The forests of North Carolina, Louisiana, and Mississippi — as well as those in Europe — are being destroyed to sustain a European fantasy about renewable energy." Fred Pearce on biomass in
@YaleE360
So the "Glasgow Climate Pact" is adopted at COP26. Thanks to India and China, "phase out" of coal is now "phase down" of coal. Fair enough. That means the US, Europe and Australia have 5 years to end coal use completely. Or the 1.5 target is dead.
Last year Europe bought 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas from Russia. This is the magic number. How can this be substituted? The biggest win is to turn down thermostats - we suggest from 22C to 18C across all of Europe. Wear a jumper for Ukraine! That saves 40bcm. 4/12
Conspiracy theories don't arise in a vacuum - they serve an agenda. The 5G COVID conspiracy theory has been assiduously promoted by Russia's disinformation network RT, as Wired reveals here:
Dear all anti-nuclear activists: Every time you succeed in getting reactors closed, they are replaced with fossil fuels. Climate changed nothing, did it?