Contrarian Investors @lincolnsamelson Twitter profile

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

This is where I am focused.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

7 months

2024 is the year of "three chokepoints." Expect disruptions to the flow of: - Gold 🪙 (money) - Oil 🛢️(energy) - Wheat🌾(food) Make sure you are long all three.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

The downside to all the people who locked in sub 3% mortgages is that are effectively trapped labor. I'd rather be a renter with flexibility and mobility, able to move rapidly in a quickly changing labor market, than stuck in my $700k home with a 3% mortgage.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@MichaelPSenger Fauci answered, "I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Science except through me." - CDC 14:16

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

It's quite simple: Gold has been suppressed for decades to allow for cheap energy and global growth. Gold suppression is ending as cheap energy is now over. The artificial offer on gold is lifting.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Newmont Mining Company is trading around 12 times free cash flow. That's a yield of ~8.3%. Or you can lend your money to US gov for 1.3%. Your choice. $NEM

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

@JackPosobiec

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Cotton is now screaming at the bond market that yields are too low. Something is about to snap. Historically, cotton is way ahead of yields.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

The case for gold is incredibly simple right now. Priced in world currency units, gold is trading at exactly the same price as it was before COVID! Despite a >70% increase in money supply, gold hasn't moved.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

I heard someone say commodities are in bubble territory today. So I pulled up this chart of soft commodities vs. S&P500 😳

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

The next bullish wave in gold miners is going to be absolutely ludicrous. This is a monstrous tsunami coming. These are once in a decade setups. 🌊🌊

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Case solved! Congratulations to @EthicalSkeptic for what should be Pulitzer Prize winning investigating journalism.

Ethical Skeptic ☀

@EthicalSkeptic

3 years

In 2018 China knew there was a problem, but did not know the extent of it, and hid their response from the world. Since it's seasonal, it mutated and resurfaced in May 2019 & sent PLA into emergency response mode. Too late however as it already was in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

FED'S KAPLAN: I WOULD BE COMFORTABLE WITH LETTING THE COST OF LIVING RUN MODERATELY ABOVE WAGES FOR SOME TIME.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

We're nearing peak "reflation" euphoria. As the pressure mounts, markets will suck everyone into the "reflation" "inflation" trade, right before the BIG DEFLATION hits. Be careful.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@JackPosobiec For a jab that won't even work by this time next year.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

BREAKING: NEW VARIANT OF CONCERN DISCOVERED SPREADING RAPIDLY IN ISRAEL, AUSTRALIA, CANADA. NEW VARIANT NAMED 'FACISM'

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

@HillaryClinton

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

I highly encourage investors to read @_whitneywebb articles on the coming Continuity of Government (CoG) crisis and imposition of martial law. The Dark Winter, Operation Blackout, and the imminent imposition of martial law.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

5 months

Corn is currently trading at $4.22. Given a 40% expansion of the M2 money supply, this is equivalent to $3.01 in US dollars before COVID. Corn bottomed at $3.01 last cycle meaning any lower prices from here will be an all-time record inflation-adjusted low.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Please share. Mega-doses of Vitamin C can help significantly reduce COVID-19 symptoms and lethality. @clif_high

China Treating Coronavirus COVID-19 with Intravenous Vitamin C - Global Research

Intravenous vitamin C is already being employed in China against COVID-19 coronavirus. I am receiving regular updates because I am part of the Medical and Scientific Advisory Board to the Internati...

www.globalresearch.ca

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Watching this incredible setup in gold mining equities. It's time. $HUI $GLD $GDX

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

My simple investment strategy for the next 10 years. Courtesy of @charliebilello Buy the worst performers, sell the best.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

The 10 year rolling return of commodities has not been this poor since before World War 2. Commodities are cheap both on a relative and absolute basis.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@EthicalSkeptic - Environmental toxins - Seed oils - Lack of physical resistance training. - Xenoestrogens - Lack of adequate sunlight (too much blue light) - Birth control and hormonal imbalances - Processed carbohydrates - Refined sugar - Lack of sunlight

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@chamath Confirming my suspicions that @chamath is nothing but a gambler. Not a wise investor. Chamath, like most, has simply benefited from corrupt monetary policy and ridden the wave of fraudulent Federal Reserve liquidity. The next 10 years will sorely disappoint you, Chamath.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Cameco with a lovely setup. #Uranium #U3O8

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@JoyAnnReid Opposing vaccination and opposing mandatory vaccination are two VERY different things.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

1 year

S&P500 versus US treasury bonds gone parabolic. Luke Gromen @LukeGromen mentioned a couple years ago that Fed and Treasury cannot let this ratio go down proved prescient. Where will this ratio go from here?

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Gold and silver more oversold right now than March COVID low.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

A scenario we're watching for 30Y yields. I suspect this is very similar to what @DaveHcontrarian is looking for.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 months

Wheat is the cheapest asset on Earth. Using artificial intelligence I have calculated the approximate gold / wheat ratio in ancient Rome. One gold aureus (~$677.20 gold coin) could buy 12 modii (barrels) of wheat. Today, that same gold coin can buy about 351 modii of wheat

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

This tweet triggered a lot of homeowners. It was mostly referencing all the people I saw panic buying homes in the last 12 months with most of their life savings at the top. Come next year, they won't be too happy about their purchase, and will be praying they don't lose job.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@Travis_in_Flint Allergies won't stop until 85% of people start taking Claritin.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

6 years

Something MASSIVE is about to go down in #Coffee Hedgers record bullish. Speculator dumb money record short. I'm long here. #OATT $KC_F $JO

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

Uranium is coiled so tightly. Huge move coming.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@APompliano Agreed. I used to be a Bitcoin maximalist many years ago and thought Bitcoin was going to save the world. Now I think it's probably a ponzi scheme.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

5 years

Commodities are breaking out. This asset class hasn't had a bullish momentum shift since 2011. Fade at your own risk.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

“Bottoms in the investment world don't end with 4 year lows; they end with 10 or 15-year lows.” - Jim Rogers

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

It seems odd that many people are ignoring the fact that the Euro is quietly breaking out of a 13 year structure.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Watching the U.S Dollar sitting on it's final support, in my opinion. Break 96 to the downside should see a swift decline to the 92 area. Milkshake theorists should be trembling.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

9 months

Gold

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

You think this stock market is scary? Wait till the bond market simultaneously realizes their bonds are worthless.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

You can't board a plane with more than $10,000 without declaring it. Why would they let you board a plane a leave the country with 5 Bitcoin without declaring it? Regulation is coming.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

"Buy things that are cheap but showing positive changes" - Jim Rogers Uranium.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

@NYGovCuomo Thank you, your Grace. Anything else my Lord?

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

The stock market is completely oblivious to the massive bid in risk-off markets right now. - Eurodollars - Gold / Silver - Falling oil / copper Commodities always move first, then fixed income, then equities.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@nntaleb It increases the argument that democracy is easily thwarted by psychological fear operations.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

I wouldn't doubt this. The board of Theranos were all CIA operatives. Theranos was a front for the intelligence community for "something" extremely important. @_whitneywebb

Dr. Ben Braddock

@GraduatedBen

3 years

What if Elizabeth Holmes stole a sample of SARS-CoV-1 and created Theranos as a front for developing Covid?

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Today's market action is proof someone is propping up financial markets. Shots fired on the house floor, the Capitol overrun, and stocks are up. Remember this moment. It's all fake.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Wait until Reddit realizes you can leverage 4:1 in futures and corner the entire Minneapolis Spring Wheat market with less than $80mm. Would only take $400mm to break the US wheat market.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

1 year

@EnemyInAState Sudden cardiac death's heading towards 18-sigma event. Acceleration began in week 14 of 2021.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

Commodities and gold have been incredibly strong even in the face of a rising dollar since 2018. What happens to commodities and gold when the dollar turns down and becomes a tailwind instead of a headwind? @Oliver_MSA

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

5 years

No matter how you draw it, coffee has broken an 8 year downtrend. The unified commodity breakout is imminent. #OATT #inflation #coffee

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@paulg I drive a car for two reasons. Because I'm young and healthy and enjoy the freedom of driving. Because I don't care about the people I have an extremely low risk of crashing into.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

The financial crisis is when gold goes up, not down. Gold going down means that central banks are in control of the situation. They love this. Real panic sets in when gold goes up, uncontrollably. That is the real financial crisis.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 months

An ounce of gold has never bought you as many bushels of wheat as today.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Commodities look to have officially broken out. Trend is now up for the first time since 2002. "From failed moves come fast moves." The bear trap low in March was unconfirmed and ultimately a trap that should prove to be a reliable secular low.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

"Smart money" commercials, typically net short one of the below, are long all three of the following: - U.S equities - U.S dollar - U.S treasury bonds It's almost as if smart money is anticipating big capital inflows into the United States. @LukeGromen @SantiagoAuFund

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Remember when the Nasdaq crashed 30% in 1998, only to go on to go and triple in short order? That was without trillions of new liquidity. 😨😨😨

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

5 years

Everyone assumes that stocks will crash in the coming recession. What if stocks do just fine and it's the dollar that crashes?

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

Going forward over the next 10-20 years, your home equity will be flat or down on a real basis, and there likely won't be much liquidity if you need to sell. If you rent, you cashflow 4% at best. I'll take treasury bills at 4% with the optionality and extra liquidity ✌️

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

One of my favorite macro signals is starting to flash "bullish". Commercial hedgers are now net long... - Lumber - Cotton - Copper Happened in 2008, 2012, 2015, 2019 (before blowoff top). Hmm.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

Laugh all you want, but cotton's recent crash should have bond traders on high alert. Cotton prices tend to lead US 10Y yields. In every single divergence over the past 6 years, cotton has ended up being "right"

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Commodities have bottomed. What are you doing about it?

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Iron ore collapsed. Baltic Dry Index in free-fall. T-bonds rallying amidst "historic inflation" Bond market smells something and it isn't nice.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

To be clear, I still think inflation is the correct posture for the rest of the decade. I want to buy dips in commodities, sell rallies in treasuries, and sell rallies in equities. Short-term, I still think the market needs one more deflationary collapse to inflict pain.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@EthicalSkeptic @hendrick2018 Crazy, so Omicron is a relative of the first lab leak that quietly circulated in Africa and parts of Asia giving people natural immunity in 2018 that has re-emerged.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@nntaleb Assumes natural immunity is less robust than vaccine? If natural immunity applied at scale is more robust and anti-fragile... then it is the nonvacinated who are taking the risk. I believe vaccine has black swan risk to the downside when applied at scale. Natural does not.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

The Case for Commodities.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

6 years

One of my favorite ideas other than agricultural commodities is Uranium and Uranium miners. Starting to see some positive momentum building here. $CCJ breaking out. Adding to my position. #Uranium #U308 $URA

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Normies, gym bros, and political commentators are talking about how Evergrande contagion is a going to spread and crash the market. That's how you know it won't.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

1 year

After calling for a major high in commodities last summer - while oil was spiking - I think commodities are now entering a significant low. Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures revisiting an area of previous resistance that should hold as support.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@JoyAnnReid @CDCgov @Delta Girl, wait till you realize every decision made during this pandemic was about business, not science.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Listening to Fauci for medical advice is like listening to @jimcramer for financial advice.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

@morganisawizard Yep, been doing it for years. It's probably 3-5% more expensive per box with the extra shipping fee and takes an extra week, but worth it.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@MichaelPSenger The Eye of Sauron has directed its gaze towards India. 1. Try to scare uneducated public into lockdowns to cause civil unrest, famine, death, etc. 2. Western oligarchs will use civil unrest as catalyst for regime change in India as to pressure China on US terms.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@elonmusk The top is almost in. Just a few more months.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

1 year

@untappedgrowth It's over

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

Gold is a credit-default swap on the Federal Reserve.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

@POTUS If the vaccine is effective, why do the vaccinated care so much about the small minority of unvaccinated?

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

If it continues at this rate, gold will be worth $0 in 19 trading days.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Uranium #U308

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

@jp_sed Unless you picked your house incredibly wisely, when your city turns into Minneapolis or Detroit, have fun selling your house.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

Commercial insiders ('smart money') are near record long Dr. Copper. Copper tends to bottom when commercial longs approach +50,000 contracts. Hedgers don't seem too worried about the economy, in fact they appear to be positioned quite bullishly.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

I don't care how early I am. I am prepared. Are you?

We Are Entering Into A New Era Of Inflation. Are You Prepared?

Previous real asset bull markets followed major shifts in global monetary policy. Today’s unprecedented shifts sow the seeds for a rerating of real assets.

blog.gorozen.com

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

2 years

I struggle to see how the biggest financial bubble in human history ends quietly with a whimper and rollover. I think Dave Hunter is on to something with a final blow-off top. A final feeding frenzy of greed and speculation. The most horrifying parabolic move ever to come.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Predicting is fun, albeit no proper way to manage risk and manage money. That being said, here is the scenario I'm watching for 10-year yields. A retest of the breakdown level around 1.40%, followed by a move to 0% @DaveHcontrarian

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Gold miners look amazing.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

4 years

@DeItaOne People don't understand Gundlach, unlike most managers, is a position trader. He identifies risk vs. reward, trade locations, and builds positions slowly with a long-term time horizon. He is not ALL IN SHORT at 2863.

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Contrarian Investors

@lincolnsamelson

5 years

@NewYorkFed @joegilster This is not bullish the U.S Dollar. @LukeGromen

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@lincolnsamelson

2 years

@morganisawizard Buy them from the UK, no prescription needed.

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@lincolnsamelson

3 years

"Beware the steepener." The yield curve steepens into the onset of a recession and precedes stock market crunches. The recession is just getting started. The S&P500 is about to get eviscerated.

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@lincolnsamelson

6 years

Is this the scariest chart in the world? #libor #fed

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@lincolnsamelson

3 years

Populism Risk. Wait until the masses realize the currency in their wallet is a fraud. Wait until they realize they need to buy groceries with Monopoly money. If brokerage houses can lock you out of trading. Banks can lock you out of "your money."

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@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Kansas City wheat ready to go. #OATT

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@lincolnsamelson

4 years

I still think Trump's odds of being our next President are much higher than currently being discounted.

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@lincolnsamelson

4 years

@RaoulGMI "When everyone rushes to one side of the boat, head to the other side to avoid getting soaked."

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@lincolnsamelson

4 years

Crude oil has a ~5% positive roll yield. I can lend my cash to the bankrupt U.S government for ~1.5% or hold the most systemically important asset on the planet for 5%, with an embedded upside tail? Yeah, I'll take the oil. #OOTT

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