$TSLA
#TSLA
Congratulations,
@elonmusk
, for tanking the stock AGAIN.
How many times does one need to :
- repeat "production is hard"?
- sell FSD, when WS doesn't yet put a value in it?
- repeat CT won't be profitable for 18 months?
Good job doing the work for short sellers.
$TSLA
#TSLA
darkpool sentiment has shifted green today for the first time in 3 weeks. Trend shift happens when smart money aggressively start going in the opposite direction.
EXTREMELY unhappy abt
@elonmusk
's language in a recent interview & may leave X
i love his cars & i drive them & i even have CT on order
but he is unhinged and his conduct go against my values
i respect the engineer in him, but that's it
WILL slowly sell my $TSLA
#TSLA
shares
$TSLA
#TSLA
is RSI oversold, especially on the last 10 days. What to expect next?
TSLA RSI Oversold - What Happens 2 Weeks Later? (Since 2020)
62% chance of rebound. All 10 oversold dates since 2022-12-27 were green 2 weeks later.
nobody panic, we're still on the copycat bull flag
puts dominated, you would think it was $TSLA
#TSLA
who announced earnings yesterday
we're on the 8th week of squeeze (explosive momentum building)... EIGHT
the last 2 times this happened, we dropped to 101 or climbed to 299
$TSLA
#TSLA
race to the bottom has lots of support
223.82 150ema
222.24 200ema
221.26 61.8% fib from ATH
219.94 100sma
213.77 anchored vwap from 2/17/2023
208.49 38.2% fib from 4/27/2023
207.81 50% fib from 1/6/2023 bottom
205.67 150sma
201.41 anchored vwap from 1/6/2023 bottom
@elonmusk
$51k win this wk; to those idiots who asked me to GFY: i make $1.85M/yr trading $TSLA, so u don't tell me what to do
go back to ur EM man-crush and see if u can make $. What's that? U need hlp? Nxt wk 225-250. But u can only do so little. That's what she said. Leave b4 i block u
2,600 followers! 👋
환영 인사 (welcome and greetings)
looking ahead into $TSLA
#TSLA
next week 12/1:
we *may* try to touch 250 again
biggest OI 250/260
yesterday's contracts for 12/1 (size >=1000)
$TSLA
#TSLA
wait, what? i have 1600+ followers?
welcome
piece of advice, ignore:
noise
news
drama
obvious bulls and bears
loud people
"stock is going to"
just follow the price action, respect Technical Analysis, watch the gammas and dark pool - follow the lines, not the crowd
$TSLA
#TSLA
good morning
we'll *probably* go 250 this week; but first, we have to touch 240
to maintain "market balance," dealers will sell stock as we approach 240 and buy stock as we drop from it - that's how tall positive gamma works
all bets are off if call buying starts
$TSLA
#TSLA
Cybertruck is coming this week. Will the stock explode higher? If yes, by how much?
TSLA Weekly True Range - Since 2020
Since 2020, the maximum weekly climb is $54.49
I have moved to TMC. It's a dedicated hardcore grp of $TSLA options traders. I was there since 2017.
Won't be getting my X 42k views and 200 likes anymore.
Now 25 likes at most?
And that's OK. I'm there to make serious $, not win a swimsuit contest.
$TSLA
#TSLA
boys: prepare to be amazed again
at pre-market i said "tighter guess is 266.87-280.29"
today's:
Low=266.60; i'm off by only 27 CENTS 😎
High=278.39; i'm safe by 1.90 😎
Close=267.48; it's inside the tight guess by 61 CENTS 😎
i predicted today's 12-point swing 🎯
$TSLA
#TSLA
mind-blowing Pre-Market stat 👀
Since April 24, 2023,
- the PM High is 100% higher than the day's Open
- there's a 68% chance that the day's High > PM High
- there's a 66% chance that the day's Close > PM Low
- etc
and OH i have 2000 followers! 👋
2500+ followers! 👋 (less 1 idiot unceremoniously kicked out last week for being super rude)
$TSLA
#TSLA
gammas 230/240/250/255 grew overnight
contracts opened last Fri for 11/24 (size >=1000)
240 is the highest vol and prem
2,300 followers! 👀👋sigh, still missing Tom Cruise or George Clooney
$TSLA
#TSLA
gamma moved down overnight to 225 (make up your mind!) and 200-250 next week
max pain 215
pre-market High is about Friday's High
last Friday's biggest contracts (size >= 1000)
i am thinking of gradually shifting to $QQQ
#QQQ
instead of $TSLA
#TSLA
why? less volatility and higher chance of success
details to follow, i'm in church! 🙏
TSLA can wildly swing -20% to +30% in a given week (quicky wipe out Iron Condor), whereas QQQ is only -9% to +7%
it is safer to sell $TSLA
#TSLA
Iron Condors if we know when the Highs/Lows of the Week arrive
TSLA High/Low of the Week - What Day/Time Do They Arrive?
In the last 2 yrs, the High of the Week arrived mostly on Thur 930-10am
Low of the Week arrived mostly on Wed/Fri 930-10am
$TSLA
#TSLA
next week 9/22 if there are no macros, i *think* safe Iron Condor range is 241.56-307.22... just aim for small wins to win the race
options market is predicting 260-290?
looking bullish with 5 consecutive higher Lows, but will we finally break ATH descending line?
another successful $TSLA
#TSLA
Iron Condor
my formula is the only one that guessed this week's range right, even after the Morgan Stanley white swan
this week's High=278.97; i guessed 216.26-280.74; i am safe by 1.77 😬
$TSLA
#TSLA
my guess for 12/1 safe Iron Condor range is 204.13-266.77 (backtested 699 weeks, 92.42% chance of success)
options market is guessing 220-250ish 12/1 Close
gammas guessing 230-250 12/1 Close
largest OI 245
$TSLA
#TSLA
looking ahead into next week 10/20:
280 appears to be the stickiest gamma; we *may* gravitate towards it
prepare for possible violent swing Wed to Fri (last 2 quarters = red); downside about -12% based on history, upside unpredictable
$TSLA
#TSLA
Is Oct going to be as bad as Sept? Nope.
TSLA Seasonality (Since 2020) - How many Green and Red days does TSLA have in a month?
Since 2020, Oct has more green days than the rest of the year.
Tesla Santa Rally - is it for real?
In $TSLA
#TSLA
history, highest rise would be the last 2 weeks of the year, followed by the last 3 weeks of the year
wildest swing would be the last 4 weeks of the year +31% to -34% 👀
$TSLA
#TSLA
this week is EPIC DISASTER courtesy of EM, falling below the ascending line for the first time...
Top 50 TSLA Red Weeks - What Happens 4 Weeks Later? (Since 2020)
there's a 72% chance that 4 weeks from now, the Nov 17 Fri Close will be below this week's Mon Open
$TSLA
#TSLA
is RSI overbought at the 65-Min, will *probably* fill the gap at 206 next week or temp drop to 50% fib 210 (16% gain over 4 days a bit too quick)
options flow is short-term bullish
11/3 options market guessing 210-235, gammas 210-225, my safe IC range 188.10-251.82
my predicted safe $TSLA
#TSLA
9/15 Iron Condor range 216.26-280.74
options market predicting approx 235-265 Fri Close
today is still the same pingponging between 50sma/ema, with thick volume shelf ~ 50% fib ATH
compared to yesterday's pic, short-term to Oct is getting bullish
$TSLA
#TSLA
sneak peek into next week 10/13
- gammas are saying we could *possibly* see 270; tallest gamma walls tend to act as magnets especially if in a cluster of walls
- TSLA Stock Price One Week Before Earnings; last 3 consecutive quarters were green
$TSLA
there is an impostor here pretending to be me, trolling my X followers and asking them to join Telegram, etc
that's not me; i don't have Telegram, Discord, FB, etc
i am on TMC, you can join some 30+ from X who followed me there
Happy New Year!
$TSLA
#TSLA
alrighty, we dropped below the Lower Bollinger Band again.
how long are we going to stay down there?
In 2022/2023, the maximum consecutive days below Lower BB is 3.
hopefully, by Monday we are back up again.
$TSLA
#TSLA
bad news, today:
- was an underperformance compared to SPY/QQQ
- is the 3rd day we are sandwiched between 50sma/21ema
- we closed on a green Inside Bar; the last 6 times this happened, all were followed by drops
good news:
- 2 eerily similar bull flags 🚀
good news: $TSLA
#TSLA
broke out of the bullish descending wedge
bad news: we got blocked on the way up
Q: why did we stop at 205.68, you asked?
A: because supp became res
Also, options flow is still bearish, be careful out there
i am guessing 11/24 safe Iron Condor range 201.36=267.24
options market guessing 220-250ish
gammas guessing 230-255ish
algos worked the MA lines today: looks bullish
$TSLA
#TSLA
*may* go Santa rally, if not soon ⬆️
#TSLA
$TSLA Last Sunday 7/16, i predicted 5 days ahead that today's range will be 251.52-311.24. Actual Close=260.02.🎯
I backtested my prediction formula going back to 2010 (680 weeks) and strategy is ~94% accurate.
Good enough for safe Iron Condor 94% probability of success.
$TSLA
#TSLA
halftime report
support is 150ema
tallest gamma magnet 245
more calls than puts incoming
quick $1,500 Bull Put Spread daytrade is good enough
today's:
Open = 21 ema
Close = 200 sma
High = Friday's High
Low = 61% fib
for the first time since Oct 11, $TSLA
#TSLA
closed ABOVE the red descending line
a lot of +p180 came in this afternoon
another successful $TSLA
#TSLA
Iron Condor
my guess was 183.23-246.07; this week's High 246.70 (i'm only off by 63 CENTS ✅); no options formula guessed this week correctly
my -c240 WAS -2,400% loss 😡, but thank you RSI overbought for the rescue🤸♀️
today's daytrade +24%, $1300
$TSLA
#TSLA
halftime report
- we got rejected by upper BB
- pre-market guess: "we may pingpong between 245/250" 🎯✅
- largest dark pool 251.20
- RSI overbought: today's 12/8 Bear Call Spread daytrade $13,000 gain in 2 hours is good enough for shopping 👠👠👠
$TSLA
#TSLA
good morninggggggggggg
it's showtime - will we close below 235 or below 240?
next week: gammas 240-250 increased from last night, 255 decreased a little bit
$TSLA
#TSLA
12/1 68% Probability of Market Maker Move @ 59.10% IV = 237.43-256.01; tighter guess 240.60-252.84
we *may* pingpong between 245/250 gammas
largest OI 245
largest prem 240
there's a large number of put buys
$TSLA
#TSLA
$10k in 45 minutes, good enough!
largest dark pool 206.24
slightly bullish right now, but be careful of 220 dead cat bounce; methinks bull trap there before *possible* fall to 200 (gamma magnet too large to ignore)
$TSLA
#TSLA
this is the 7th worst week in its 13-year history, and the 3rd worst week since 2020
there's only a 23% chance of bounce 4 weeks later (Nov 17 Fri Close - Oct 16 Mon Open)
After being interrupted by 5 days of market bank turmoil, dealers are once again starting to get bullish on $TSLA
#TSLA
(cute tiny red at the end = negative delta = bullish sentiment).
$TSLA
#TSLA
we're in green territory now
p200 is somewhat collapsing so there is slight buying pressure
largest dark pool 218
finally, we are near max pain
$TSLA
#TSLA
price collapse is manna from heaven for Covered Calls
$55k over 2 days, closing it tom before the Wed FOMC
watch out for the 255 gamma magnet below
$TSLA
#TSLA
11/24 68% Probability of Market Maker Move @ 48.24% IV = 236.75-248.65
2 tall gammas 245/250 - we *may* pingpong in between
yesterday's contracts for 11/24 (size >=1000)
largest OI 255, we probably won't reach that
$TSLA
#TSLA
220/225 is tied for tomorrow's resistance; highest prem/vol=225
today's biggest trades for next week 11/17 (size >= 1000) - a few p190 but bullish bets
today's 3 bottoms were caused by the arrival of dark pool at 1pm 2pm 3pm 👀
That's great, $TSLA
#TSLA
is up AH 218.8
If the stock is up Friday AH *and it's retained Monday pre-market*, what happens next week?
In the last 52 weeks, 64% chance next week is green: (Fri Close - Prev Fri Close) / Prev Fri Close.
$TSLA
#TSLA
gammas are looking much better than last Fri, *possible* temp bounce to 225 but all that put buying is causing selling pressure
i am guessing 10/27 Fri safe Iron Condor range 178.95-245.03
options market guessing 200-225 @ 71.74% IV
gammas guessing 200-225
$TSLA
#TSLA
☝️ pre-market "tighter guess 232.20-236.21", very narrow $4 range
today's Close =235.45 🎯🎯🎯✅✅✅
another easy-peasy no-stress $10k Iron Condor FTW
didyoumakemoneythisweekboys?
thank you 150 ema/sma & 10sma for today's support
next week is 245 gamma wall
$TSLA
#TSLA
If Monday is green, what happens to Tuesday?
TSLA Tue Performance - What is Tue if Mon is Green? - Since 2020
6 out of the last 7 green Mondays were followed by a red Tuesday.
$TSLA
#TSLA
my 10/13 guess of safe Iron Condor range is 229.74-291.32, may roll them into 240-275
options market is guessing 245-275 Friday Close
gammas guessing 240-270 Friday Close
NOT ADVICE
$TSLA
#TSLA
it's showtime.
and now we wait.
and. pray. that.
@elonmusk
doesn't. go. off. the. script. AGAIN. 😡🙏
stop talking about FSD already, my MS can't even navigate out of the mall parking lot to pick me up
oh, gammas are indicating 230 is possible.
we're about to breach the upper BB... how long are we staying up there if we close above it?
in $TSLA
#TSLA
history, could be as long as 36 days (during the bullish 2020s)
$TSLA
#TSLA
4/21 2DTE 68% Probability of Market Maker Move = 166.69-190.81 based on last night's options premiums @ 112.78% IV. Maxpain=185
gamma wall=182.5
gamma magnet=175-180
i am going long at 160, all in. NOT ADVICE.
$TSLA
#TSLA
is still on the yellow ascending channel, after briefly falling from it
monthly chart: finally green after 3 red months
yet another successful Iron Condor: the hardest part really is harvesting theta - just give me my money alreadyyyyyy
next week: still 270 target
$TSLA
#TSLA
halftime report
gamma 225 is now bigger than 200, so *perhaps* we averted a crisis? macros looking good
200 sma is BACK as supp
pre-market High resistance is a FAIL
largest dark pool 214.36
$TSLA
#TSLA
in the last 17 months, we closed above the Upper BB only once (Morgan Stanley pump); that line is coming up again 240ish - possible top for now?
we are in bonafide positive gamma territory and next week isn't looking too shabby, either (250!)
$TSLA
#TSLA
today's :
- Low is at the ascending channel (bullish)
- High is 21 ema
- Close is almost mid-BB
exactly 3 weeks since Oct 18, we finally touched the mid-BB again
today is the 1st day we CLOSED ABOVE the upper-BB, how much longer?
in $TSLA
#TSLA
history, max 8 consecutive days (7 to go?)
today we got stopped by the 50% fib and the thick volume shelf and the AVWAP
bottom is the ascending channel (bullish); we're back inside again
$TSLA
#TSLA
today we closed above R1/R2/R3, so are we red or green tomorrow?
TSLA Closing Above R1/R2/R3 - What Happens the Next Day?
result: inconclusive, 50-50
Friday was the first day we went below 200 sma, the biggest and baddest sma of them all
how many days do we expect to remain below?
2022-09-22 to 2023-05-26 is the longest stretch in $TSLA
#TSLA
history, 171 days (8 months!)
$TSLA
#TSLA
2400+ followers! (should be more but i blocked 100+ obnoxious ppl... time to forgive?)
210 gamma grew overnight (by just a little bit)
217.50/220 reduced
Futures little change (so far) after Moody's downgrade
$TSLA
#TSLA
Bragging rights time: 7 days ago i guessed today's Iron Condor range to be 212.74-272.56. Actual Close=215.49. Safe by 2.75🤸♀️
my formula is the only one (out of 7) that got this week's range correct.
Did you boys make $$$ this week?