I’ve finally gathered all my thoughts to create a comprehensive investment thesis for AST SpaceMobile $ASTS, so here we go:
$ASTS is poised to revolutionize global connectivity with its unique satellite-to-cell technology. As the first company to develop a space-based cellular
If you thought the Trump Media & Tech Group’s merger was funny, check the company’s overview presentation.
TMTG plans to compete with Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Disney, and Hulu.
Full deck here: $DWAC
$ASTS Launch Week Reflections:
I couldn’t hide my happiness the past few days when I saw the launch invites rolling out and people celebrating on Twitter as if they won the Mega Millions lottery or a Willy Wonka Golden Ticket.
As I mentioned recently, the company's decision to
@chamath
Some amazing takeaways from my Q2 SPAC portfolio:
1) 28% of purchases are down.
2) 50% of purchases are shorted to death.
3) Research suggests that I’m getting a margin call very soon.
$CCIV/
@LucidMotors
one more piece of detective work.
The Lucid rumor was leaked from Saudi Arabia.
The two non-US Bloomberg reporters (Dinesh & Matthew) weren't involved in any prior SPAC-related news.
They cover all Saudi/PIF related news and are always spot on.
Thread ⬇️🧵
To all the new SPAC investors/traders, please know that we sacrificed ourselves for you over the last 8 months. You’re welcome.
- The FinTwit SPAC Squad
The sooner you realize that $ASTS has at least a 5-year head start over their closest competitor in the direct-to-cell space, the sooner you’ll grasp the size of this potential monopolistic opportunity.
$ASTS more or less invented the direct-to-cell space from scratch in 2017.
$ASTS: Really good interview with JR Wilson (AT&T VP of Tower Strategy) on WSAZ TV - Sep 23.
Key Points:
- AST has the most advanced, sophisticated, and high capacity satellites in orbit
- BB1 launch was a massive milestone for AT&T
- Anticipate AST to be a mass market product
Love FinTwit to death but I beg enough with the "I called $CCIV at xx" tweets flooding the timeline.
Calling $CCIV at $11/12 after a Bloomberg report (when literally anyone with decent knowledge knows the only two legit Tesla competitors are Lucid and Rivian) is NOT a call.
🧵 Thread: Why Starlink's direct-to-cell capabilities is falling behind, further strengthening AST SpaceMobile's $ASTS early mover advantage.
The market isn’t fully considering the possibility that Starlink’s direct-to-cell service might fall short or even fail entirely.
Shoutout to all the SPAC focused Twitter accounts that are still alive after the Feb-May massacre. We lost a lot of good ones out there.
You da real MVPs.
Final thoughts on $ASTS mixed shelf:
The timing couldn’t be any better with the upcoming launch next week. By doing it now, the news will likely fade by tomorrow or Monday, allowing the stock to continue uptrend momentum leading up to the launch. A successful launch could then
Full $ASTS Q2 2024 Earnings Summary (courtesy of
@defiantclient
)
Highlights from Press Release
- Initial Block 2 BlueBird planning and production of 17 satellites underway
- Expect initial nationwide, non-continuous service to be available with AT&T and Verizon beta test users
Why an
@EximBankUS
funding for $ASTS is only a matter of time 💰
EXIM plays a vital role in supporting U.S. exports by providing financial assistance to US-based companies and their international buyers.
Thread 🧵
Kudos to $ASTS management for providing retail shareholders the chance to attend next week's launch, while also managing the most important milestone in the company’s history.
Their organization of all logistics, from transportation to the viewing site, completely free of
In the last 72 hours,
@chamath
has been targeted by hit piece after hit piece to a degree that raises suspicion.
He’s no angel but he’s also not the root of all Wall Street evil.
We never saw anything on Citadel’s Griffin or Melvin’s Plotkin? Steve Cohen?
Fuck biased media.
$ASTS: Communications specialist at HM Forces (His Majesty's Armed Forces, refers to the British military 🇬🇧):
“I cannot wait to see how the BlueBirds progress and to hopefully develop a capability that NATO’s Supreme Allied Command Transformation can look to embrace in the near
Okay Nanalyze, I'll finally bite.
You've been putting out nonstop clickbait tweets to engage with $ASTS and whenever anyone responds you mute the person because "they can't add value to the conversation".
So I'm super curious to see what kind of value have you added to the
What do $RKLB and $ASTS have in common? They're both being pumped by a bunch of agro tool bags who can't add value to a conversation. Guys. The sacred cow bs doesn't fly. It never has. Learn how to be critical of a stock you really like and maybe you'll be wealthy some day.
$CCIV ▶️ $LCID
What a journey it’s been in SPAC land.
From stalking private jets, to random LinkedIn connections, to watching Saudi Arabian Economic forums
You were the pinnacle of SPAC hysteria top and Hollywood type FinTwit drama and emotions.
You’ll be missed 🖤
🔎 $RTP/
@hippo_insurance
: SaaS harnessing AI to revolutionize the home insurance industry 🦛🏠
- Everything you need to know
- One-stop-shop for all things smart/connected home
- Higher growth & revenue than closest public competitor $LMND/
@Lemonade_Inc
Time for a thread 🧵⬇️
How I play SPACs:
1) Diversify across multiple holdings and reallocate based on performance (cut losers, trim winners, feed ones closer to NAV)
2) Buy early in the $10-12 range and hold. I've got all the time to wait.
3) I rarely day trade. 95% swinging.
4) Momentum + Catalysts
$ASTS recruits former Lockheed Martin $LMT executive as their new Test Director.
With the company ramping up its commercialization efforts, attracting and retaining top talent is going to become easier.
I’m never going to explicitly tell you to buy, hold, or sell a stock.
I’m never going to tell you diamond or paper hands, get in before it’s too late, or give price targets.
However... I’m always going to advocate for risk/reward management, knowledge sharing, and education.
NOT A JOKE!
Trump Media and Technology group to merge with Digital World Acquisition Corp $DWAC at an $875 valuation.
Trump Media’s mission is to “create a rival to the liberal media consortium and fight back against “Big Tech” companies of Silicon Valley.
As one big institutional investor said at the launch, whether you invest at $5, $10, $20, or $30, by the end of the decade, this will seem like a small blip in the rearview mirror. $ASTS
There's a special place in hell for pumpers who consciously know the amount of emotional and financial harm they've done and continue to do to inexperienced investors all for their own personal gains.
🚨 $FTOC/
@Payoneer
: The next PayPal?
- Payment processing company for B2C & B2B
- Operates in 200 countries + total of 1,500 employees
- $300m in revenue (2019)
- $2.5 bn valuation (Bloomberg)
- Customers include Airbnb, Walmart, Amazon, & Google
Time for a thread! ⬇️
$AGC is not just based on short interest squeeze etc..
Grab is the Super App for Southeast Asia = mobility + food delivery + fintech.
+ backed by one of the best VC’s in the world in
@altcap
.
+ one of the best SPAC structures in the market (3-year lockup) & $500M backstop.
@jimcramer
Hey Jim, I went all in 5x leverage on SPY puts on Monday after you said not to buy the dip and a crash is imminent. Thanks for another great call!
A nice reminder that the man driving $ASTS does not take a salary. Abel is making all of his money alongside shareholders through his stock ownership. This is what leadership looks like. Invest behind owner-operators with great vision and the ability to attract a great team.
There’s a special place in hell for people who are tweeting about one specific company, then add 10-15 random tickers at the end just to extend the reach.
Meant to take a longer break but was overwhelmed and grateful for all the mentions/messages over the past 2 days.
Though I'll limit the time spent, I'll do my best to block all the noise and double down on factual education & knowledge sharing. Only way to make a real impact.
$SOFI Q2 Earnings:
- Revenue up 101% ($237M vs $215-220M guidance)
- Members up 113% to 2.6M
- Products up 123% to 3.7M
- Galileo accounts up to 79M
- Q3 Revenue guidance at $245-255
@jimcramer
There are good stocks and bad stocks but if you can really talk about 20 different stocks across non-related industries everyday, to me it’s preposterous. When do you actually do your research and not take things on face value?
$ASTS One of the key elements for ExIm funding is US companies must be exporting their goods and services to other parts of the world, and in many cases developing nations in Africa, Asia, and South America.
Another interesting find that went unnoticed last April 26.
The US
$ASTS: wow the timing all lines up. 👀
“We are actively underwriting $800 million worth of space transactions as we speak,” Ex-Im first vice president and vice chair Judith Pryor said during a World Satellite Business Week panel in Paris.”
“Requests for financial support are
I've seen many comments talking about Starlink vs $ASTS so I wanted to shed some more light on the competition.
Since being founded in 2017, AST has been singularly focused on developing space-based cellular connectivity for years. This early entry has allowed them to:
- Refine
113 tweet thread about $ASTS when no one cared. Every single tweet is full of wisdom and articulation that no one can even get close to.
Steve walked so we can run.
#ForSteve
🅰️🫡
Since the pop of the SPAC bubble, I’ve been trying to identify one company to go long with fun money and has the potential to 50x (or zero) in the next 5-10 years.
Criteria:
- Blue Ocean tech
- Cheap valuation
- Cult following riding highs/lows
$ASTS — see you in sp🅰️ce! 🛰️📱
Abel Avellan on $ASTS retail investors with
@MorganLBrennan
:
“I’m super proud. I was moved by seeing people wake up at 2am in the morning. There were many buses that joined us for the launch. For them it’s not just an investment, it’s a collaboration to change the world for
🚨 My next big bet: $LUXA/Lux Health Tech Acquisition Corp.
- Led by
@Lux_Capital
(
@wolfejosh
&
@peterjhebert
) targeting a health-tech biz.
- $345m raised
- Team of serial entrepreneurs, inventors, renowned doctors, & investors
*Current Price: $10.94
Time for a thread 🧵⬇️
$ASTS:
@chrissambar
(Head of AT&T Network) interview with
@PCMag
post BB1 launch key takeaways:
- Sambar successfully tested the technology with BlueWalker3 test satellite, achieving stable phone calls with a 21Mbps download rate. Dallas to Hana (Hawaii). "Very stable
🚨 Why $RTP/Reinvent Tech Partners is my largest pre-target SPAC holding!
- Led by Reid Hoffman & Mark Pincus
- Prolific VCs & serial entrepreneurs
- $690 million raised
- Targeting tech sector (AI, autonomous driving, gaming focus)
*Current Price: $11.90
Time for a thread! ⬇️
September 20: Jim Cramer says don’t buy the dip. $SPY bottoms.
September 22: Jim Cramer begs you to sell your crypto. $BTC up more than 50%.
October 19: Jim Cramer tweets “No more SPACs.” SPACs bottomed.
Yes, it’s that easy.
Chamath drama aside, $IPOE/
@SoFi
is really the highest quality company to SPAC in the last 12 months.
Many SPACs are really solid on the long-term IF multiple things materialize and come to fruition, but SoFi is both a short-term and long-term winner.
🚨 $VYGG/VY Global Growth: A star-studded SPAC with global focus and outreach in Europe & Asia.
- $500m raised
- Led by Alexander Tamas (VY Capital)
- Team of seasoned international Silicon Valley entrepreneurs
- Targeting tech/internet businesses
Time for a thread 🧵⬇️
$ASTS: Starlink direct-to-cell MNO partners Optus (Australia) and One NZ (New Zealand) have both removed from their websites that service will start in late 2024 and left it open ended.
Before & After:
$ASTS Sp🅰️ceMob finally getting the media attention it deserves.
@FierceNetwork_
:
“It’s not every day that investors are so stoked about a company that they’ll travel thousands of miles to witness a satellite launch. But that’s what happened this week with AST SpaceMobile’s
You hear about founder-led companies and having skin in the game but
@AbelAvellan
takes it to a whole new level with $ASTS
1) Invested his own money in the company’s Series B
2) Takes zero salary
3) Has not sold a single share since going public
4) Holds majority % ownership
The biggest upside of this crypto crash is that we no longer have to see the “if you invested $1000 in [insert crypto] on [insert date], here’s how how much you’d have today” tweets.
TL;DR: Traders will trade for a couple % gains here or there. Shorts will short for a couple dollars here or there. Many people will sell too early and regret it.
The real winners are those who will continue to hold through the volatility until the thesis materializes and see
King Midas is popularly remembered in Greek mythology for his ability to turn everything he touched into gold.
King
@jimcramer
is popularly remembered in FinTwit mythology for his ability to turn everything he touched into shit.
$CCIV/
@LucidMotors
summed up:
1) Lucid needs $ by Q2 to fund production plans.
2) Saudi PIF needs to see initial ROI.
3) ZERO chance Lucid (pre-rev) does IPO or DL.
4) Low chance of another private fundraising.
5) SPAC is only viable option = $CCIV
*Manage your risk/reward.
Do not panic sell a stock you own that isn’t moving to chase/FOMO after one that’s ripping.
The one you sold will probably go up while the one you chased will probably go down, extrapolating your losses in the process.
Have conviction and stick to your plan.