Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Auth KB 8 Mortimer 7000
Following a
#Newspoll
with ALP 36% Chris Uhlmann said "neither [major party] can form government in their own right from there." The ABC has now called that Labor has won a majority from 32.8%.
"“Polling has shown that the overwhelming majority of Australians agree with my position on women’s sport." (Deves)
Not aware of any remotely reliable polling on this issue.
Haven't noticed this before but had every Wentworth ALP 2019 voter preferenced Kerryn Phelps ahead of Liberals, Phelps would still be in the parliament and Dave Sharma would not.
This is disinformation of an exceptionally stupid kind.
1. In most Aus seats the two major parties finish 1 and 2 so neither's preferences are distributed.
The Federal Court of Australia has today and in very clear terms upheld the AEC's interpretation that ticks are formal Yes votes at referendums and crosses are informal. This is as I have said all along a matter for Parliament, the AEC must follow the law and is doing so.
Just looking at how few of Labor's seat wins are even remotely close it becomes clear that Labor has won this Victorian election by an enormous margin.
#VicVotes
So, someone looked in the VoteCompass mirror (such as it is) and found themselves much closer to their self-appointed nemesis party than they were happy with?
Just a reminder ahead of the upcoming Victorian election: I don't care who you vote for but vote below the line in the upper house and help defend democracy by disrupting preference harvesting.
#springst
NOTICE: Prominent account holders who tweet statements of the form 'a vote for party X is a vote for party Y' should expect that if I see those and have the time I will report them to the AEC and Twitter for electoral disinfo. Voters decide their own preferences.
More boutique trash pseudopsephology from the Australian embarrassing itself again.
If. The. Voting. System. Was. Different. People. Would. Have. Voted. Differently.
Haven't seen it yet but many people saying that Fran Kelly asked Penny Wong why the polls are close.
They're not. They're less close at the same point than they were in 1996 and 2013 and similar to 2007.
Good morning also to those who tried to import Trump's rubbish into one of the world's best administered democracies with false claims that the AEC was plotting to deny No victory. Form an orderly queue and pin public apologies to your accounts.
Ex-Senator Amanda Stoker: "In Queensland’s senate contest, I received the highest individual below-the-line support of any candidate, despite not running a [BTL] campaign."
False. She was fifth on BTLs, way behind Hanson, Watt, Allman-Payne and McGrath.
I'm totally against the under-16s social media ban campaign, another illiberal morals panic by clueless politicians egged on by grifters and wowsers that will be unworkable and do more harm than good if it goes anywhere.
#Newspoll
2PP poll to poll changes for mid-term change of PM:
Hawke to Keating +2 (est)
Rudd to Gillard +1
Gillard to Rudd +6
Abbott to Turnbull +5
Turnbull to Morrison -5
This thread is atrocious, doesn't actually mention preferences in the opening post but has acted as a magnet for far too many people saying we should scrap preferences.
Sheesh.
This is spectacular incompetence that this utterly braindead garbage by Hartcher has been published. Learn how elections work. Wait until the bloody count has finished before declaring Labor lost 600,000 votes and the Greens only gained 4000.
Total nonsense by Greg Sheridan:
"In truth, thousands of voters do not take seriously the allocation of their second preferences, but the parties, Labor or Green, print how-to-vote cards that most of their voters follow automatically."
This is not truth.
Sorry to have to rant about this now and then but with unemployment at a remarkably low rate I find it utterly unforgiveable that politicians are continuing to subject jobseekers to so-called "mutual obligation", let alone that this includes forced in-person interviews.
Very pleased to inform the House that I have won the 2022 Tasmanian Open (chess) with a score of 6/6. My 13th win of the title (seven shared) but my first with a perfect score (albeit including a forfeit win) and the 6th perfect score in the history of the event.
Henderson's piece is multiply woeful; he's another one who should be dragged before the Clue Fairy to show cause why he should not be banned from writing about elections and psephology for life.
Gerard Henderson in today's Oz says Lib prefs helped Greens win in Griffith. The Libs were not distributed as they came 2nd on primaries. Labor came 3rd, and their prefs helped the Greens win.
@kevinbonham
Looks like the Reps seat tally is done; changes from occupier/notional (not counting one abolished seat):
ALP 77 (+8)
L-NP 58 (-17)
IND 10 (+7)
GRN 4 (+3)
KAP 1 (=)
CA 1 (=)
UAP 0 (-1)
Have now heard Greg Mirabella's comments about preferential voting directly. He was specifically discussing teals and claims they are a case of the preference system being gamed by minor parties and Labor to make Liberals lose. This is complete nonsense.
The AEC is considering federally deregistering the United Australia Party, the Christian Democrats and Fraser Anning's Conservative Nationalists on the basis of insufficient membership.
Big move to Labor in Bennelong. Now 50.9 on
@PollBludger
projection. Also improving in Deakin.
I have Labor on 72 plus five likely and four possible. Need a lot to go wrong to not get a majority out of that.
This is false. The incumbent PM having resigned, the GG can appoint as PM whoever in the GG's opinion is most likely to command the confidence of the House. The GG is under no constraint to wait for results to be final.
How can
@AlboMP
be sworn in as Prime Minister while votes are still being counted?
The election results need to first be formally declared by the
@aec
.
So, if states lock down non-essential activities including businesses then what is the sense of still requiring Centrelink recipients to look for jobs? It's absurd, in most fields nobody will be hiring.
Suspend mutual obligation completely now.
BREAKING: Victoria and NSW will push for a lockdown of non-essential activities, including businesses.
This will include not going to restaurants and pubs.
Victoria will also push for schools to be shut from Tuesday.
If they do not agree, Victoria will go it alone.
Does anybody who knows a thing about politics edit or even read this overpaid hack's trash prior to publication? Claims Colston was the last Labor defector. Not even close.
I don't know if the word "censored" was Leunig's own, but it is not censorship if a newspaper declines to purchase your cartoon. It is censorship if the government bans it, which they haven't.
This is hilarious. While One Nation bang on about multiple voting, one of their candidates is alleged to be a multiple candidate (in two seats for two different parties).
Does the AFR win some kind of award if its coverage embarrasses it every single day of this campaign? This is abysmal poll interpretation here. This is the Marianas Trench of bad.
Here we go. I mentioned it in my article because as soon as Payman quit Labor the people calling for her to be S44d seemed likely to suddenly switch from people with Australian flags in their username to "senior Labor figures".
Labor intending to challenge
#Chisholm
result. Will be an excellent test case for application of laws against misleading electors in relation to the casting of their vote.
New from me: Payman expected to quit the ALP after caucus colleagues reveal she told them she was being guided by god on her Palestine floor crossing decision, shocking her colleagues
#auspol
"Keneally said lingering resentment in south-west Sydney over last year's strict COVID-19 lockdowns was the decisive factor in her shock loss"
Primary vote swings in Fowler/surrounds:
McMahon ALP +2.5
Blaxland ALP -1.8
Werriwa ALP -8.2
Hughes ALP -8.2
Fowler ALP -18.6
Look at this ridiculous rubbish by the Herald Sun besmirching the paper it is printed on again. Claims "a cliffhanger was the verdict" while reporting a poll that said otherwise and was correct.
Flying foxes are not even in the same family as the bats believed to be involved in COVID-19. It's like wanting dogs banned because bears sometimes eat people.
I am pleased to advise the house that I have won the 2020 Tasmanian Open (
#chess
) on a score of 5.5/6, my 12th win of the title and the first time I have won the Championship and Open in the same year.
Oh and now it's a tie so the result of the debate is that Morrison won and Albanese won and neither won and Channel Nine should be permanently restrained by constitutional amendment from conducting any electoral/opinion process above the level of tuckshop monitor.
Labor declared last night’s election lost at a state administrative committee meeting today. Party sources say that means there’s no path to a Labor minority government. Also makes the leadership vacant under party rules
#politas
Breaking: the NSW Electoral Commission has REFUSED the Liberal Party's request for a one-week extension to nominate candidates for next month's council elections
In
#Brisbane
the latest postals batch has broken to the Greens over Labor. Unlikely now that Labor will have a higher primary vote lead at the end of the primary vote count, and preference sampling shows that the current lead is clearly insufficient.
My view on this is parliamentary prayers should be abolished. I find hearing them embarrassing. I think they bring parliament into disrepute, both by honoring one set of beliefs above others and also by politicians reciting them then behaving poorly anyway.
#politas
Although 50% of Tasmanians marked 'no religion' last Census,
@TasmanianLabor
is backing the continuation of daily Christian prayers in parliament, with
@DeanWinterMP
describing the practice as “an important mark of respect to the Christian faith”:
#politas
It takes some skill to be wrong or misleading by omission in this many ways in a single tweet.
1. It wasn't a bill, it was a symbolic motion to consider a set of attitudes and claimed facts urgent.
A bit of a pointer to the Reps primary vote swing against Labor being partly caused by competition from teals and by increased field sizes: Labor currently has a swing to it in every mainland state Senate race.
Had our system coerced voters into into picking one of the top two candidates, as the USA's does, then Labor would have easily won the majority of the vote in this case. But we are better than that failed excuse for a democracy and we don't do that.
Internal so-called leaked (means not leaked) polling from the same company that had the Territory Alliance on course to govern the NT (they won one seat). Nothing useful to see here.
#Springst
It is never too late to simply pass legislation rendering all aspects of spuriously so-called "mutual obligation" voluntary and unenforceable.
These changes are turning accessing benefits into a sociopathic video game at a time when there has never been less reason for it.
Nothing whatsoever to do with religious freedom. Culture warriors who want religious organisations to have unlimited rights to sack but don't want the likes of Thorburn to be sackable don't want freedom, they want religious hegemony. And they can't have it.
The shock departure of incoming Essendon CEO Andrew Thorburn just 30 hours following his appointment to the role has reignited the religious freedom debate.
#ResolvePM
federal ALP 39 L-NP 30 Green 11 ON 6 UAP 1 IND 9 other 2. Resolve has much higher primary (+implied 2PP) vote leads for Labor than other polls. My 2PP estimate for these primaries 58.8 to ALP (-0.4) But remember the honeymoon is over because Simon Benson said so.
Barring any very late polls, my final national poll aggregate for 2022 (time weighted only, last-election prefs, no house effects or quality weightings, not a prediction, just a "this is what I say the polls say" is ...
53.2 to ALP.
Average of final polls 52.8 to ALP.
Updates on
#Gilmore
here - Labor has hit the lead after big breaks on absents and dec prepolls. Can't project that these will keep breaking that way as they're probably from ALP-friendly adjacent booths, but makes it harder for Constance.
Australia's last 14 consecutive state and federal elections have produced majority governments. At least eleven of these saw serious media speculation about a hung parliament as a possible outcome.
Note: I am now reserving the right to instantly, without warning, block people who advocate an upper age limit for voting in my mentions.
Democracy is under enough duress without this rubbish adding to and legitimising it.
'I lost a hitherto safe Labor seat because of voter anger with lockdowns by a Liberal state government and a Liberal federal government' is an interesting take.
People may have noticed that I use the word "ridiculous" rather a lot but there is so much stuff out there that simply is ridiculous. I give you today's first pseudopsephologist, Senator Canavan.
So Essential is out tomorrow and PVO has tweeted it is 51-49 and then that it's not a guess but Essential doesn't do 2PPs in that format, so it would have to be converted at the least. Hmmm.
Traitors who support first past the post for Australia frequently whinge about Labor scraping a majority off 32.6%. We have another UK case tonight of a >100 seat majority under FPP off only a few percent more.
Gemma Tognini is another usual suspect who is wrong, writes me. Labor won a majority off a slightly lower primary vote than the Coalition because preferences overall favoured it, but that always happens and would have happened with or without any "deals".
Anthony Albanese became Prime Minister because of preferences deals, not because he or the ALP were the nation’s clear favourite. Australians gave a massive vote of no confidence to both the majors, writes Gemma Tognini.
Oh no it wasn't. The sentence continued "despite a late surge in support for the Coalition in the final days [..]" The main evidence given for this supposed surge was (i) Liberal Party internals (ii) a Resolve poll that had gone out of field the previous Sunday.
A lot has been made of the headline on the lead story of our election morning paper which read: "Labor Under Siege.'' Fair cop -- the headline wasn't our best. As the first paragraph began: "Labor is on track to retain power in Victoria...." That was the story.
Since insulting Australians is apparently a bad thing now (per PM's comments re proposed vax payment) when will this government scrap "mutual obligation" which is among the most insulting and appalling bureaucracies in Australian history?
Hard to know where to start with this hot mess. For starters, teals are not Greens, we've seen a bunch of examples of them not-Greensing in recent Gaza motions. Teals are much more like what were the Democrats.