Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham Twitter profile

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

2 years

Really is quite the trend. "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?"

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

SF is now the most popular political party in all public opinion polls. So, rather than lazily assuming some malevolent manipulation is at hand, if one is serious about winning them back you need to understand how this has happened and who this *third* of voters are. 1/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Ireland tops EU housing price index inclusive of water, electricity, gas and other fuels 82% higher than the EU average, Eurostat.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

This place is actually stupid. When schools are closed in Ireland: Mid term break 👍 Christmas 👍 Summer holidays 👍 Bank holidays 👍 Week of snow 👍 Bit of wind 👍 Deadly virus ripping through the country? "nah, think of the economy" 🙄🙄

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

Constituency with the most poverty (54% of kids in poverty) is Bethnal Green & Bow in London. It voted remain (69%). What is it about places with a high % of non-whites that they can be ignored by wealthy white leavers in their pure people vs corrupt elite narrative?

BBC Politics

@BBCPolitics

5 years

"You guys should get out of London. Go and talk to people who are not rich Remainers" Boris Johnson's top aide, Dominic Cummings, is asked about his "next move" – as Parliament is suspended for five weeks, after passing a law aimed at blocking no deal

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Complete nonsense to delay aggressive measures to contain #COVID19ireland because the public aren't able for it. The WHO urged for EARLY aggressive measures a week ago. Many, many leading doctors and epidemiologist argue to move NOW rather than later.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Notwithstanding specific circumstances it is worth remarking on how Sweden ended up in unrelenting restrictions for much of the year. While New Zealand, which responded quicker and aggressively to rises in cases had a very open economy for most of the year.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

So to sum: SF is one part populism, one part left wing, and one part economically disadvantaged. And for the most part these features mostly overlap with one another. 12/12

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Looking at the cases by county it really does shoot off once the number of cases per 100k gets over a certain level. 14-day incidence rate of Covid-19 per 100,000 people.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

The caricature about the working class has to stop. If I had 20 unskilled manual labourers in a room how many would we expect to be in favour of Leave or Remain? Answer: 10 Leave, 10 Remain If I got 20 people aged over 70? Answer: 13 Leave, 7 Remain Src: YouGov/DataPraxis

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

The average number of close contacts is high because many ringing in these days contracted this awful virus on Xmas Day, when guidelines suggested 3 households could congregate. Blaming people for contracting the virus is deeply, deeply unproductive for test, trace, isolate.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

2 years

For anyone who's worked for a party... Head of comms, Head of policy, Head of campaigns/data, and Leader of the party

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

2 months

I've been doing them for since before they were cool and I'm going to do a little rant about the public MrPs. In terms of the Labour majority public MrPs vary here by about 200 seats. One of the reasons for this is down to the distributions. The 11 MrPs (and 1 SRP) are shown

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Poland has closed its schools. On a per capita basis Ireland has 10x the number of cases Poland has.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Every country in the world has seen exponential growth in covid cases. We're at 9 cases but our hospitals we have 14k beds compared to say 160k for the UK so our urgency should be 12 times that of the UK on a case by case basis. Close all schools, mass gatherings immediately

Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Should the Irish government do more than they are currently in terms of closing schools and banning mass gatherings with a view to preventing the rise of covid19 cases.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

IN EVERY @UKLabour CONSTITUENCY MORE PEOPLE SUPPORT A SECOND REFERENDUM. MrP results from yougov sample of ~20k.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Some detail on how people in Ireland stayed at home, flattened the curve and saved many lives in doing so. (Using a bit of python and R you can: convert google mobility PDFs into SVG files, turn the graphs into raw csv files, apply some KF smoothing, and ggplot!)

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Just a terminology thing, a 'Grand Coalition' is where the two largest parties of opposite ideologies to form a government. FF and FG, in this case, are neither of these things.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Italy and Japan have shut their schools. It slows the spread and buys time for hospital capacity, treatments, vaccines and more knowledge and therefor wreduxes the overall mortality rate. It's a no brainer.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

With a very similar number of ICU beds & ventilators New Zealand is an interesting comparison. Stats on the day they issued a lockdown (everyone stay in doors & businesses close): Ireland 1,819 cases (19 deaths) New Zealand 205 (0) Also like that the gov texted everyone.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

2 years

Round by round Tom Clonan's #tcdseanad win.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Religion. An extensive literature links religiosity, politics and economic preferences (e.g Scheve and Stasavage 2006; Stegmueller et al. 2012) suggesting that religion anchors working class voters to right wing parties. And since the '80s religiosity has declined considerably.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Italian daily growth rates.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 months

Only two years ago support for Sinn Féin was getting close to FF and FG combined. In the locals they're right back down to 2016 general election levels, where both FF and FG are twice as popular as SF. #LE24

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

A reasonably strong correlation between areas with people in unskilled or semi-skilled work (lower socioeconomic grades) and areas where Covid is on the rise. [Dublin only]

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

Combined unionist vote down quite significantly. (DUP+UUP+TUV+NI21+UKIP+NICon) Botanic: -10% Ormiston: -17% Titanic: -14% Alliance + Green Party up considerably: Botanic: +7% Ormiston: +18% Titanic: +12%

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

"But Sinn Féin aren't left wing they're..." Not true. Their supporters do predominantly self-identify as left wing. (The following data relates to the 2020 GE) 6/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Based on the polls I think you could be fairly certain that a majority in Northern Ireland would favour an all-island strategy WRT covid.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

6 years

@JoeTwyman Sort of wish that was followed up by the question: "Are you serious, do you actually mean that?" - Yes - No

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Declining partisan loyalty, declining religosity, and declining homeownership has facilitated an increase in the number of people self-identifying as left-wing. (Particularly in working class communities). The below chart is from @Aidan_Regan and @ste_mueller . 4/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 months

Local versus general election voting intentions highlight the disjoint between locals and generals. 43% of voters voting for a local election candidate in a party different to their preferred general election party.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

This is the problem I've been banging on about. It would be prudent to act earlier rather than later. Tbh this is the last thing I want to be doing, I'm meant to be an independent pollster but sometimes some things are more important.

Dena Grayson, MD, PhD

@DrDenaGrayson

4 years

⚠️Doctors in #Italy warn Europe to “get ready” for #coronavirus , saying ~10% of #COVID19 patients need ICU care, and hospitals are overwhelmed. “Increase your total ICU capacity...prepare ICU areas (for) patients – in every hospital if necessary.”

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

7 years

Latest poll from @irishdailymail and @ireland_thinks revealing an increase in support for a United Ireland.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

7 years

1/ A lot of talk about what's going on in the polls. Forget shy voters and late swing, here's the decades old problem..

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

#1 . Long term demographic trends have changed opportunities for the left. Support for FF plus FG has declined consistently since 1980. The trend since the 1980s is important and consistent with demographic changes in that period. Most notably... 2/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 months

Public and jury votes for Israel in the Eurovision. Some people seem confused about the 10 points from Ireland, which would appear to be out of step with general public opinion. But Eurovision voting isnt representative. 1/5

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Calling it for Ivana Bacik. #DublinBaySouth

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

7 years

Labour Leavers are loyal to Labour for a reason! They care least about the EU and most about Health/Education/Housing. While their concern for immigration caused them to vote Leave, it is still too much of a leap to vote Conservative on the basis of Immigration and the EU.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

But I know where this is going and yes.. #2 . SF benefits from populist opinion. When asked, SF voters cite 'change' & 'FF/FG' as their primary motivations. 81% don't trust most politicians. (read populism as a disaffection with elites; not advocating popular policies) 7/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

Opinium's poll showing a 15 point Tory lead (in Observer/Sun/Express/Mail) over-represents: 2016 Leave Voters, Tory 2017 Voters, %Labour Leavers and %Tory Leavers. This is why it is (again) completely at odds with all 8 other pollsters operating in the UK.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Income is a feature in this. You'll see how the SF vote share falls off a cliff in the 60k plus categories. 11/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

So, more people are more open to supporting a party that is *overtly* defined as left wing. And have they? Yes. Ireland had much lower levels of support for these parties at about ~15% in the 80s but today is no different from other Euro democracies with ~30% (and rising). 5/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Indeed if you were to exclude non mass-goers from the 2020 general election, the composition looks remarkably familiar (though not quite) like the old two-and-a-half party system (except SF replacing Labour). 3/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

There's no magic ICU tree.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Relatedly, it's no surprise that SF have nudged up in the context of the Zappone scandal. Perceptions of corruption is perhaps the strongest predictor of their support. 8/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Instead it is a left wing populism that seems more rooted in economic disaffection. Hidden in aggregate economic statistics of a relatively succesful economic model is the fact that some are not doing *as well* as others. And they tend to vote for SF. 9/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Glad he cycled, otherwise his carbon footprint might have been big.

Richard Branson

@richardbranson

3 years

It’s a beautiful day to go to space. We’ve arrived at @Spaceport_NM . Get ready to watch LIVE at 7:30 am PT | 10:30 am ET | 3:30 pm BST #Unity22

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

2 years

Somewhere in the unwritten constitution is the requirement of all PMs to sack Michael Gove (in July)

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

Aaron knows nothing about the Labour Party. Anyone who has done *anything* for the Labour party would know that the party have been using predictive modelling for a long, long time right down to the probability of someone being at home at a given time of the day.

Aaron Bastani

@AaronBastani

5 years

@PolhomeEditor are they 'polling experts'. I agree that Labour needs *top* people in sentiment analysis, predictive modelling, machine learning. What Labour presently has is none of these. Miles behind the Tories - I've yet to meet anyone say otherwise tbh.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Interesting to see changes in growth rate of covid19 cases in Italy. Takes a week or so to see the impact of a lockdown. For reference: Date - Area under lockdown Feb 22nd - Municipalities affected March 8th - 1/4 of the country March 9th - Entire country

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

I do wonder where Fianna Fáil think Sinn Féin voters are coming from.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

"Ireland is taking in 195 Refugees from Afghanistan in response to developments in the country. Is this number...?" Results broken down by party. Mail on Sunday/Ireland Thinks, August 21st

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Regardless of one's opinion on MHQ, as an academic it is depressing to see how other academics can dedicate their career to the study of a subject and merely be regarded as "activists" in an article consisting of its own sweeping evidence-free assertions.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

One thing about this election is that the number of seats held by the Greens + Labour + Social Dems collectively will have doubled.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

So what is this left wing part of SF populism about. Firstly it's not about social issues. SF voters don't necessarily adopt a liberal perspective on issues such as immigration. (Note that Ireland's far right is spread across a couple of places, but mainly Independents). 9/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

The economy, stupid: - Incomes are stagnant - House prices have risen sharply over decades; But - Inflation is low; Therefore - Pensioners are insulated, wealthier; Which is why - Pensioners are most positive on the economy; Thus - Age is a very strong predictor voting behaviour

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Worth saying that many argued for this months ago. Early aggressive action (in terms of the severity of the response given the quantity of covid), and the false dichotomy between healthcare and economics in the context of covid.

Fergal Bowers

@FergalBowers

4 years

“New Zealanders are enjoying a near-normal, pre-coronavirus lifestyle, with no social distancing & spectators allowed at sports and cultural events, but with the border strictly controlled & all arrivals required to spend 14 days in quarantine.” 100 days & no new cases.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

They want more redistribution. 10/

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

The last two weeks I've rediscovered computer games. Highly recommend.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Some other figures: Irish attitudes towards immigration the least negative.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Evidence that the GP surveys ( @gpbuddy ) produce a useful early warning system. The chart shows how estimates from GPs rise and fall a couple of days in advance of the confirmed cases (with time series modelling explaining residuals). It also shows the surge ahead.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

For what it's worth, the hotel quarantine policy was also polled in July and November when cases were lower. And it was pretty much as popular then as it is now. One difference now is that those in charge are under greater scrutiny, inter-party competition. #RallyRoundTheFlag

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

1 year

Something I'm always banging on about is how the census significantly overestimates the number of homeowners due to the fact that homeownership is enumerated at the household rather than individual adult level. The no of adults living at home with their parents is enormous today.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

😬 As of next year the MA in Journalism at TU Dublin includes Data and Research as a core module. See or and apply here:

Masters in Journalism at TU Dublin

Study journalism at Ireland's original school of media, TU Dublin (DIT). Closing date for applications July 20th 2020.

www.tujournalism.com

Rebecca Stuart

@reb_stuart

3 years

You’ve outdone yourself this time @Independent_ie

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

14.5% positivity. Suggests a fair number more cases out there beyond what's been tested.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Thank God this lot weren't around for the negotiation of the Good Friday Agreement. #cblive

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

Just on this poll, I did a sneaky one on the RIC event. Not popular. Not popular. At all.

Gavan Reilly

@gavreilly

5 years

🚨 #GE2020 POLL 🚨 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes (January 2-14, MoE 3.3%) Fianna Fáil 32 (+5 in four weeks) Fine Gael 20 (-7) Sinn Féin 19 (-1) Greens 7 (+1) Labour 4 (-2) Independent Alliance 3 (+1) Solidarity-PBP 2 (-1) Social Democrats 1 Renua 1 (+1) Inds and others 10

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

6 years

@MariosRichards @JoeTwyman Bloody hell though, peace. I mean I wonder if we flipped it. Which is worse: War in the UK Or Staying in the EU..?

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

Some interesting movements in the @DatapraxisEU @YouGov poll. (Note: please don't take as "working class voters are all rabid remainers now". There's a lot more to this that isn't in this thread. e.g., changes in status quo, depoliticisation of immigration, size of the change)

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

As an indication of the numbers waiting for a test, google searches for 'covid test' are starting to dwarf the surge this time last year:

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

6 years

For those that think that the rise of the far right is a new phenomenon related to new technology, it really isn't. The following chart is 9 years old (it was for my PhD proposal!) and shows the % support for far-right parties averaged across nineteen western European countries.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

July the 19th the day the Ice Age ended, and day the covid-19 pandemic was over (UK only). #FreedomDay

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

My analysis of Peterborough by election: Good result for Labour who won the by election. Bad result for the Brexit Party, Tories and Lib Dems who did not win the by election.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Celebrate the wins

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

2 months

I never know how to deal with people who who think they understand polling but haven't quite grasped how advanced things are behind the curtain. I have some sympathy because there was a time when I would have agreed with the skepticism about online polling and indeed there is

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Coronavirus growth rates by country. Singapore and Japan in particular used aggressive methods to effectively shut down the country. The quicker you move to 11% growth the longer you have to deal with the problem. Survival rates seem to depend on hospital capacity.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Very strong relationship between (Ivana Bacik's) Labour gains and Eamon Ryan's Green vote in the 2020 general election (from the tally electoral district data). Aka 'Watermelon greens'🍉 With thanks to @breakaway_ian and @gavreilly for the data on this. #DublinBaySouth

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

2 years

Things you won't read because they don't scream off the page/twittersphere... - Macron is a relatively popular president. - Le Pen has moderated her party's offering.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Wow.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Fun fact: Sweden has ended up with higher restrictions than each of its neighbouring countries since May 22nd.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Wow.

South China Morning Post

@SCMPNews

4 years

Shanghai is using these ultraviolet lights to disinfect buses. The process takes “5 to 7 minutes per bus” and kills “more than 99.9 per cent of viruses”.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

If you add these up, they add to 44 in the first column and 56 in the second column. The latest polls show also that current support in favour of leaving is roughly 46 and remaining 54.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Got to have another really enjoyable chat with @davidmcw . This time what the demise of the SDP/Liberal Alliance in 1982 tells us about the demise of Fianna Fáil in 2020. Listen to the full podcast here:

America burns, Ireland’s potential reset and the end of Fianna Fáil?

When Rappers deploy the language of Presidents and Presidents deploy the language of Rappers, you know America is in trouble. Plus, why commercial property is o

podcasts.apple.com

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Little too early to tell what will happen in Ireland, but at least in London where omicron emerged much earlier, in terms of mechanical ventilation requirements the numbers are still still stubbornly low.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

When we look back we'll realize how irresponsible governments have been in this entire crisis. Far, far too focused on avoiding "panic" without exploring how panic comes about, what it means and looking more closely at the greater risk of complacency.

bradley ⟢

@bradleyziffer

4 years

So, the last week I have been battling COVID-19 & Pneumonia. Never in my life have I been this ill. “Young people aren’t at risk, they’ll only have mild symptoms” Wrong. I want to open up about the difficulties I’ve gone through these past days, what it was like in the ICU...

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

Lucky the Irish don't have ITV or the internet.

Haggis_UK 🇬🇧 🇪🇺

@Haggis_UK

5 years

@templaine Here's the video. Stanley Johnson - Thatcher would have said.. "if the Irish want to shoot each other they will shoot each other..."

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Irish twitter in the last two months amounts to an awful understanding of statistics; liked and shared hundreds of times because they fit popular priors. It can feel pointless spending the time doing something actually robust to find sth interesting (that doesn't fit priors).

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

5 years

And people wonder why age and wealth are better predictors of vote choice than social class.

Ben Page

@benatipsos

5 years

Morning all. Here’s a chart showing how much wealth you will own by the time you are 50. If you are born recently not so much... #GenerationEquality basically Millennials are poorer ..

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

@NewstalkFM @TheHardShoulder 🤔

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Estimated % of the population testing positive for coronavirus in week ending Dec 12th in the UK. ONS ()

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Verified message:

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Nobody likes hedge funds.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Speech from Nicola Sturgeon outlining how Scotland will deviate from UK policy and introduce 'managed quarantine' for *all* arrivals. Citing current system as "too reactive as often by the time the new variant has been identified..it will have already spread across borders"

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

4 years

Horse well and truly bolted. Data from: @ShaneHastingsIE , h/t @andrewflood

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

Extensive polling and data here on issues relating to the politicization or lack thereoof of immigration in Ireland with @thejournal_ie

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 months

"Those polls we're way off...I do think there are questions about how accurate those polls are" - FF candidate Polling for same candidate: Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks (May)6% Other public poll (May)9% Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks (June)5.3% Result6.4%

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

2 years

Latest Savanta Comres gives Labour a 15pt lead. However, if you look at the part of the poll that includes undecideds (Table 2) and compare it to the previous Comres polls (as below) it suggests a lot of Tory supporters have become undecided rather than Labour. 1/3

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

7 years

17/ Non-prediction: The only thing we know is that while Labour has surged we cannot trust ANY of the polls to tell us by how much:

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 months

While there is something to be said for a general underestimation of FF, the scale is overestimated here. A lot of FF & FG voters in this set of local elections were voting for the candidate and NOT the party. The 'No' column here are those with a party-based allegiance.

Thomas Byrne

@ThomasByrneTD

3 months

Opinion Pollsters should be asked why online opinion polls consistently underestimate @fiannafailparty support. Opinion polls can often set news agendas and headlines. Editors who publish them should ask about their real-life reliability.

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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham

3 years

@Styo28183449 @newschambers Does it?

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