U.S. spring
#wheat
planting is advancing at the slowest pace in more than 20 years and was only 49% complete as of Sunday. Average for the date is 83%. Minnesota is only 11% planted vs 90% avg. North Dakota 27% vs 80% avg. Those two states grow two-thirds of the U.S. crop.
I'm heartbroken to share that I lost my beloved father Ken on Thursday. It's going to be hard adjusting to a life without him and I'll miss him every single day, but I want the world to know what an amazing, devoted dad I had. I'm so blessed. Love you Dad โค๏ธ
Snapshot of vessels currently listed as carrying
#soybeans
. Still a steady stream of cargoes headed from South America to
#China
/Asia.
Quick check of
#Brazil
's latest lineup suggests about 4.8 million tonnes to be shipped this month, with some 75% of that to China.
Trying to replant 240 acres of
#corn
near the
#CropWatch19
fields in southern Illinois. Conditions were perfect to plant 15 minutes earlier. This keeps happening to
#plant19
. Everywhere.
North Dakota grows half of the United States' protein-rich spring
#wheat
crop, and the state is planting at the slowest rate in history. With just 27% planted as of Sunday, the 2022 pace has fallen behind the prior slowest years of 1995 & 2011. Would normally be 80% done by now.
Honored to have been named Master Scout on
#pftour23
- ten tours in the making. I come back every year because I believe in the process and really enjoy the people. I've learned a lot over the years. Pro Farmer puts on a great event, and I'm already looking forward to next year!
Today my sweet grandmother Alice is 102! ๐ฅณ
I asked her today for her advice on living a long, happy life. She says stay busy, work hard, stay active. "A busy life is a good life!"
If you want to leave her a birthday message below, I'll read it to her later. She'll be touched!
Look at all these vessels carrying
#soybeans
from
#Brazil
to
#China
right now. Map says there are 237 ships in the world as of right now with soybeans on board. Most are loaded with 60K to 70K tonnes of beans, and most of them are headed for China.
Ukraine is one of my favorite places to visit and I know I have a lot of ๐บ๐ฆ followers. I have met many of you, some of the nicest people. My job is to discuss market impacts, but I'm constantly thinking of the human angle too. Truly wishing for everyone's safety and well-being ๐๐ป
This again.
#China
agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.
The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion.
I didn't want my 10,000th tweet to be just an ordinary one, so I bring you my first ever sorghum handstand - from south central Nebraska!
10,000 tweets down, lots more to come..... thanks for following along, Ag Twitter!
Crop Tour Handstand 2023 Edition
Bringing you a "behind the scenes" look at how the handstand is made ๐ฌ Heavy boots, fishing hat and finishing salute included, of course.
Thanks to all for following along this week. 10th crop tour in the booksโ
Most of
#Ukraine
and
#Russia
's grain exports originate at these 9 ports. Mykolaiv for Ukraine and Novorossiysk for Russia are the top ones.
๐บ๐ฆ&๐ท๐บ account for 29% of world
#wheat
exports, but all grain & vegetable oil shipments from both are effectively cut off right now.
๐ฎ๐ฉ
#Indonesia
will ban
#PalmOil
exports from April 28 until further notice to control soaring domestic prices.
Indonesia accounts for 56% of palm oil exports.
Further, Indonesian palm oil accounts for 36% of all major vegoil exports, combined.
Only 58% of U.S.
#corn
was planted as of May 26, the slowest pace on record. That is only +9 points on the week and drastically lower than the average of 90%. The trade was expecting 63%.
#plant19
From Reuters:
#Iraq
needs
#wheat
IRAQ ALLOCATES $100 MLN TO URGENTLY PURCHASE WHEAT, MINISTRY OF COMMERCE TO CREATE STRATEGIC STOCKPILE BY IMPORTING 3 MLN TONS -STATEMENT
I have sad news. I lost my precious grandmother Alice two weeks ago, she was 103. I've relayed many of your birthday wishes to her over the years (they truly touched her), so I wanted to let you all know. She'll be deeply missed, but wow, what a woman. So blessed to have had her.
Bad news for Canada.
#China
will block all meat products shipped from Canada starting Wednesday, claiming it found fake veterinary health certificates on those products. China is the third largest market for Canadian pork.
I just had the best weekend in Indianapolis despite tough weather. Ran a 1:44:50 half marathon, almost 6 min better than my prior best! ๐ Still can't believe it's me out there running this fast, but I've trained consistently and believed in myself. Anyone else run this weekend?
30% of U.S. winter
#wheat
is in good or excellent shape, well below the analyst expectation of 40% and last year's 53%. Some 36% of the wheat is in poor or very poor condition.
This is USDA's first national assessment of winter wheat conditions since late November.
๐บ๐ธA brief history of U.S.
#corn
yield growth since the 1860s ๐ฝ Notable growth in yields was seen after the adoption of modern fertilizers in the 1940s, which made drought years esp. in the 1980s stand out more than before (compare with 1930s Dust Bowl for example).
The average yield of these six
#corn
fields is 133 bu/acre. Northeast Nebraska - Knox, Pierce, Cedar, Wayne, Madison counties. Average
#pftour22
yields in this area last year 182, 3yr avg 175, so it's not good here.
Just a reminder, this has to do with extremely wet spring weather in much of the Northern Plains. That area faced a bad drought last year, but too much rain in April and some rains/cool weather since then has kept farmers and their heavy equipment out of fields.
Finally back at my favorite 5k, my hometown Turkey Trot! And I hit my best ever time (22:31). It's been quite a month for me! ๐โโ๏ธ๐คธโโ๏ธ Lots to be thankful for, including all you Twitter peeps, as always. Hope your day is fabulous. PS anyone else trot today? I wanna hear about it!
An unprecedented amount of
#soybeans
are headed from South America to Asia right now.
#Brazil
shipped an unheard-of 16.3 million tonnes of soybeans in April, including 11.8 million to
#China
.
Such a big difference in traffic from seven weeks ago.
#China
bought $24B of U.S. Ag (AND related products) in 2017, but $13.2B in 2018.
So.... $24B + $16B = $40B
Or.... $13.2B + $16B = $29.2B
Or something else?
The biggest thing to remember is that China refused to make ANY mention of this in Friday's press conference.
Hard work pays off!! ๐๐ผโโ๏ธ
Crushed my half marathon time this morning by 4 minutes! New personal best 1:50:27.
Strong splits, gorgeous chilly morning, no wind, decent air quality, and an in-person race. Loved *almost* every minute of it!
Have a happy Sunday everyone! โค๏ธ
Monday morning I set out on my 10th Pro Farmer Crop Tour, 10th time on the western leg, so to commemorate, here's my first crop tour handstand (Minnesota - 2016). I'll give it my best this year just for you guys, dunno if I will measure up....
#pftour23
#China
's COVID lockdowns have worsened global supply chain woes. One-fifth of the world's container ship fleet is estimated to be stuck in port congestion (not just in China), and the number of ships awaiting berth at Shanghai are up 34% from last month.
Here's a look at the
#CropWatch19
#corn
fields this weekend versus a year ago. The 8-field average condition rating is 3.78/5 compared with 4/5 a year ago. The emerged corn looks fairly good for the most part, just developmentally very far behind a year ago.
MARATHONER! ๐ ๐๐ผโโ๏ธ๐
Still trying to process yesterday's events & how my body carried me 26.2 miles without stopping or even slowing much!
It's hard to have a goal other than finishing for a first marathon, though I secretly wanted to break 10 min/mile.
โ 4:21:12
โ 9:58/mile ๐
Today I finished my first ever half marathon. Always a gymnast my whole life but never a runner, until now! ๐ Even beat my 2hr goal (1h56m). Never thought it was possible, but anything's possible if you want it badly enough. I like analyzing ๐ฝ but there's more to my life :)
๐บ๐ธU.S.
#corn
conditions fall to 55% good/excellent as of Sunday, below the trade guess of 58% and down from 61% a week earlier. That is the week's lowest since 1992 and the lowest for any week in June or July since 2012. Illinois corn to 36% GE from 48% a week earlier.
U.S.
#corn
export inspections are very 2012-ish lately, tho they'll need to be more 2022-ish (at the very least) by early 2023 to have any shot at full-year targets.
I don't have a
#wheat
inspection chart, it's time consuming, but I will make it if this tweet gets 100 likes โค๏ธ๐คช
Hey
#AgTwitter
, I'm a little busy this week.. busy doing absolutely nothing at all. And it's glorious ๐โ๏ธ๐ด
I'll be back this weekend. Don't let the markets get too crazy while I'm out ๐
Just completed my 2nd half marathon - 1:54:12 - a whole 2 min 12 sec faster than 6 months ago. Started wondering around mile 11 why on earth I'd ever subject myself to this. But you quickly forget those hardships at finish line. And then you sign up for another. Vicious cycle ๐
I'm baaaaack ๐ฅ Haven't raced in well over a year and not only did I make my time goal, I defended my 3rd place age group award from the same 5k in 2022. Maybe I won the handstand division, though? ๐
I'm a little quieter than usual this week because I'm spending some much-needed time in the Colorado mountains. This is from yesterday on the windy summit of Peak 10 (13,640 ft). Just 7 steep miles to the top. It's a good pain. Definitely my happy place.
It's race season again! Shamrock Shuffle 8k in the streets of Chicago โ๏ธ Passed in front of CBOT at the 5k mark. Such a fun course - I've been wanting to do this one forever and finally got the chance today. Time was 38:51 (~5 miles). Met up with a friend afterward ๐คฃ
Here is a look at the
#CropWatch19
#corn
field in S. Illinois versus the same weekend in the previous two years. It's side-by-side corn/soy fields that rotate each year. 2017 yields were record. 2018 was big but short of record. 2019 field is still in its infancy.
More info on
#Ukraine
๐บ๐ฆ
Ukraine is the No. 1 exporter of sunflower oil, No. 4 in
#corn
and top 5 in
#wheat
. Production is heaviest in the center and east portions of the country.
Drought Monitor RECORD: 81.8% of the USA is now abnormally dry, the most in data back to 2000, replacing the prior high of 80.8% from July 2012. However, area covered by moderate or worse drought was higher in 2012. Fall/winter/spring replenishment *critical* for 2023 harvest.
Yesterday I drove to Ault, CO to see the world's largest operational steam engine. Built 1941, restored 2019 after nearly 60 years in retirement, I couldn't miss the opportunity! Especially having been to so many train museums as a kid to see these giants. So cool.
#up4014
๐ฆ๐ท
#Argentina
's
#soybeans
are now expected to fall 35% from USDA's original harvest predictions - more than in 2009 or 2018. USDA cut the crop size by nearly 20% just this month - also bigger than any monthly cuts in 2009 or 2018. The 2023 drought has truly been historic.
Happy Thanksgiving Twitter friends! ๐ฆ I am grateful to have turkey trotted this morning, my longest run since April. It's been a tough year with some injuries, but I'm on the mend and even ran much faster than planned. 27:23, five min slower than last year but it's a victory! ๐ฅ
More and more
#soybeans
continue to depart ports in
#Brazil
, and those first beans are arriving in
#China
now. This graphic shows all soy vessels, with lines to show the ones that have left within the last two weeks.
U.S. winter
#wheat
in 30% good/excellent condition is 22 points below the 5yr avg for the date. The last time ratings were lower for the date = never.
Similar scores were observed in the same weeks in 1989, 2002 & 2018. Below trend yields in all 3 years.
๐บ๐ฆ
#Ukraine
's Prime Minister says the country may harvest 65-67 million tonnes of grain in 2022 vs 60 million expected previously. That compares with a record 86 million tonnes in 2021.
Only 22% of U.S.
#corn
was planted by Sunday, the slowest pace for the date since 2013 and well behind the 50% average. That is up from 14% last week. Trade expected progress at 25%.
10 km race complete! โ
Zoom in to find the ๐ฝ. Gave me power today!
Not the fastest run ever, 55 min and change, but super fun on the Chicago lakeshore with 1000s of other Big Ten fans. Also, I've got my sight set on bigger things... ๐๐ผโโ๏ธ
PS thanks for the shirt, Twitter
#GBR
Parana and Rio Grande do Sul produce 30% of
#Brazil
's
#soybeans
, and conditions there are very rough right now. Here's Illinois and Iowa superimposed to give a size idea. IL+IA = 29% of U.S. soy crop.
2021/22 soybean plantings:
๐ง๐ทPR + RS = 29.4M acres
๐บ๐ธIL + IA = 20.7M acres
It would be devastating for the global
#corn
market if
#Ukraine
cannot plant it's crop this spring. ๐บ๐ฆ accounts for 16% of exports.
I took these photos of Ukrainian farmers planting ๐ฝ in mid-April 2013. Record crop that year of 30.9M tonnes, but 2021 set a new high of 42M.
๐ง๐ทWhen considering
#Brazil
's weather needs, keep in mind how the crops are distributed and what areas matter. These maps should help:
โช๏ธ
#Soybeans
โช๏ธ1st
#Corn
โช๏ธ2nd Corn
โช๏ธ
#Cotton
Reuters reporting that the Biden administration is studying whether waiving U.S. biofuel blending mandates could help stabilize soaring prices for key food ingredients like
#corn
&
#soyoil
.
Finally home after 9 days on the road and about 2,700 miles across 7 states. Saw a lot of crops and feel like I have a decent idea of what's out there. Time for some rest!
Oh by the way, turns out the boots are less of a hindrance than I thought....
2021 is off to a great start ๐
Happy New Year to my Twitter peeps - you make my job more enjoyable and I'm happy to have you around. Cheers to a new year!
(No racing today but this is absolutely the second best option)
Four more ships left
#Ukraine
's Black Sea ports on Sunday, including:
โ๏ธ66kt
#corn
bound for Turkey
โ๏ธ44kt corn to Turkey
โ๏ธ45kt sunflower meal to China
โ๏ธ6kt sunflower oil to Italy
About 84kt of corn had left among 4 shipments between Mon and Fri.
On May 26, the United States still had 99 million acres of both
#corn
and
#soybeans
left to plant. That is the most ever by far. Here are the next 4:
2) 1995 70.1 million
3) 1996 58.2 million
4) 2013 56.8 million
5) 2011 56.5 million
#plant19
๐บ๐ฆThis map from Bloomberg shows the area within
#Ukraine
controlled by Russian-backed separatists and where Putin recognized independence on Monday.
Here's a reminder of where
#wheat
,
#corn
, and sunflower seed are grown in the country.
Five countries have been responsible for 75% of major global vegetable oil exports in recent years:
๐ฎ๐ฉPalm oil,
#Indonesia
๐ฒ๐พPalm oil,
#Malaysia
๐บ๐ฆSunflower oil,
#Ukraine
๐ฆ๐ทSoybean oil,
#Argentina
๐จ๐ฆCanola oil,
#Canada
A bit of positivity in a world full of depressing news.
My lovely grandmother Alice is 101 today! This is her out on the porch watching her surprise parade with all the town's fire trucks/police cars/etc. The Mayor even sang her Happy Birthday!
She is very loved โค๏ธ๐
North Dakota is planting
#corn
&
#soybeans
at a record slow pace, corn by a comfortable margin. Only 56% of ND's corn was planted by May 29, and May 25 was the last day for most ND farmers to plant ๐ฝ and be fully eligible for elected crop insurance. ND grows 3% of U.S. corn.
Traffic of
#soybeans
from South America to Asia has really picked up over the last three weeks.
#Brazil
's latest lineup showed more than 13 mmt of beans scheduled to sail in April, mostly to
#China
.
I'm 3 for 3 in the fall racing season! A new 10k PR on a hilly but pleasant course and 1st place in my age group ๐ฅ
Just one more race left in the fall 2022 lineup and fourth different distance. Will be hard, no guaranteed PR. Wish me luck! Scroll down for video ๐๐ป
Awesome day fly fishing, my second time ever. Beautiful weather and great waters for fishing on Fryingpan River in western Colorado. Caught brown and rainbow trout, and I was more successful than my last outing! ๐ฃ
Update: U.S. spring
#wheat
planting progress at 49% complete as of May 22 is the SLOWEST in records back to 1981. Next slowest for the date is 1995, but 2011 is the slowest from late May forward.
Immediate report reaction: ummm what? Honestly I can't immediately explain this, I'm confused about what just happened. Numbers were so surprising that I'm half waiting for USDA to come out with a correction...?
June 30 living up to its hype, I guess ๐คทโโ๏ธ
๐บ๐ฆ
#Ukraine
is home to some of the world's most fertile soils, which is how it came to be known as a breadbasket to the world. This "black earth" is excellent for growing crops.
I took these photos of winter
#wheat
&
#barley
in April 2014 in Vinnytsia & Mykolaiv Oblasts.
Happy Thanksgiving Eve, everyone! You can prob guess my plans for the morning, but for now: an adult gymnastics update ๐คธ๐ผโโ๏ธ It's definitely going! First time tumbling on the regular floor in 16ish years. And I flipped! Muscle memory is truly remarkable.
A handstand worthy view ๐
About 2,000 ft down and just under 4 miles to get to this point on the northwest coast of Kauai via the Nu'alolo Trail. Possibly the most breathtaking sight I've ever seen!
Pro Farmer U.S. Crop Estimates 2023:
๐ฝ
#Corn
yield 172.0 bu/acre, below USDA's 175.1 and the year-ago yield of 173.3.
๐ฑ
#Soybeans
at 49.7 bu/acre, below USDA's 50.9 but just above last year's 49.5.
PF pegs the corn crop at 14.96 bln bu, soybeans at 4.11 bln bu.
๐ฝI usually exclude 1988 from this chart to better display the yearly variation, but that no longer makes sense. U.S.
#corn
conditions are migrating to an island of their own with no comparable years. But that 56-62% G/E range is interesting: 6 of 8 w/ sub trend yield.
An important
#wheat
thread:
The world grew a record wheat crop in 2021/22, but donโt let that deceive you when it comes to actual availability.
You must look at the projected year-end stocks and most critically, the expected demand relative to those stocks, also record high.
In the press box tonight at U.S. Classic covering Simone Biles' return to competitive gymnastics ๐คฉ Not my typical office view and I am NOT complaining!
I just completed my 7th year on the western leg of
#pftour20
. That's 28 full days of sampling. And today is the first day ever that all
#corn
samples my vehicle pulled were above 200 bu/acre. 11 stops, car average 229. Southwest Minnesota, wow, what a nice corn crop! ๐ฝ
๐ฝCBOT
#corn
is flirting with sub-$4/bu. Thursday's low ($4.04-1/4) is the front-month contract's lowest since Nov. 13, 2020. But that 11/13/20 price is more like $4.80 in today's dollars, considering inflation.
$4 corn in 2024 is not the same as $4 corn in 2020.
๐บ๐ฆ
#Ukraine
has become a major world supplier of grains & oilseeds, exporting well over half of what it produces.
It is a key player in the vegoils as top sunflower oil exporter. Threats to trade have sent Malaysian palm oil & Chicago soyoil futures to record highs Thursday.