Kanika Agarrwal @kanika_agarrwal Twitter profile

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Kanika Agarrwal

8 months

Why My Startup Failed It’s been nearly a year since we shut down @Upside_AI . Given that I’ve had enough time and space from it, the end of the year seems like a good time for reflection and closure. Its a long thread, bear with me :) (1/n)

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

I’m just here for the comments section. #UddhavThackeray #maharastralockdown

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

The best investor is an honest one @VijayKedia1 so glad to have you as one of our shareholders

Neil Borate

@ActusDei

2 years

The best kind of market guru, is an honest one. Vijay Kedia's portfolio made 0% return in the past year. It happens. His portfolio is heavily small and mid cap tilted. A one year horizon means little to him. When asked about holidays, he said he's bought a few resorts. :)

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Key takeaway from #FamilyMan : We are all heroes of our story.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

In 1971, Pakistan was 70% richer than Bangladesh; today, Bangladesh is 45% richer than Pakistan. India — eternally confident about being the only South Asian economy that matters — now must grapple with the fact that it, too, is poorer than Bangladesh in per capita terms.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

I have to write a 700 word article this weekend on how fintech will help us get to a $5tn economy. Tech just makes finance more efficient. Now what to do with the remaining 694 words?

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

It’s @aagarrw ’s birthday and only a @RafaelNadal cake would do.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

Happy New Year to all of the guys who read this whole thing! I wish lots of objectivity and luck for you in 2024 :) (n/n)

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

1 year

I’ve joined @IndiaQuotient as Partner recently! While our journey at @Upside_AI didn’t work out, endings also mark exciting new beginnings. At IQ, we like investing in big, India-first businesses early. If you’re building something cool, I’d love to chat!

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

My advice at 60,000 (today) is the same at 40,000 (Oct 2020): Jump in and ride the wave. Timing the market isn’t possible. You’ll lose more in trying to protect your downside than you’ll make on the upside.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

Guys who crack distribution first have a much better right to win than the folks who have a great product. This is true across industries and extra true for financial services. Therefore, in my view, an AMC by Zerodha and Groww have a much higher chance of success than a new AMC.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

But this was not true for other fund houses – investors did not leave other guys with bad performance. They stayed because they trusted the brand. Therefore, second realization was that this is a brand trust business. Investing brands are built across vectors of time and capital.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

4 years

Did you miss our webinar today with @smallcaseHQ ? You can watch it here!

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

Therefore, our first realization was that our thesis on why most investors were onboarding was wrong. It was not the tech, but the great returns. Seems so obvious now.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

I am taking all of these hard-won skills to @IndiaQuotient . I was an early-stage investor before I Upside. But the big difference in how I now evaluate companies is the deep empathy with which I can relate to a founder’s very tough journey. Hopefully makes me a better investor.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

We started Upside with the vision to build the next HDFC AMC. The next generation of mutual funds that will deliver returns using machine learning instead of humans. The inputs to pick good stocks was the same – company fundamentals and macro data.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

We tried to “borrow trust” over the years. Raising venture money, onboarding marquee distributors was one way we tried to move up in the circles of trust till investors could trust us directly. But brand trust does not flow as easily, and rightly so. It should not.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

"a Chinese billionaire dies every 40 days...unnatural deaths have taken the lives of 72 mainland billionaires over the past 8 years...15 were murdered, 17 committed suicide, 7 died from accidents and 19 from illness. 14 were executed. (Welcome to China.)" via @tylercowen

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

The other way to approach building a business in this space is distribution first. Build the pipes and then different products to push through this. When we started, we debated this a lot – should we first be manufacturers or distributors.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

"If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong." Arthur C. Clarke

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

We weren’t trying to build a trading shop but an investing firm without the biases of human investors. The thesis came from how investing in the US had evolved into more rules-based, quant driven products.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

I've never understood how a company "misses" street estimates. Street got it wrong na? Its like parents expected 90% from the child, and child "missed estimates"😅

ET NOW

@ETNOWlive

3 years

#BrokerageRadar | @HDFC_Bank 's Q1 numbers missed Street estimates. Here's what #brokerages have to say about it! #MarketsWithETNOW #HDFCBankQ1

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Don’t you love it when someone emails you and then calls you to tell you they emailed you 😅🤦‍♀️

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

4 years

@smallcaseHQ Overrated: Intuition Underrated: Process

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

Having said that above, we are very proud of all that we achieved. The three of us founders succeeded and failed together and had an awesome team that stuck with us through it all. We still believe there will be an Upside AI that will exist in the Indian markets in 5-10 years.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

For the first couple of years, it was just the 3 of us building the product, testing it in live markets to build track record and selling. As markets took off in mid 2020, so did we. Our products were consistent top quartile performers and AUM follows returns.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

We grew 10x in two quarters and very profitable. We were organically adding customers who would find us and invest. Therefore, we did very well in building an awesome, unique product that was our wedge into the market. We also did a good job building brand through PR and content.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

I’ve been thinking a lot about market size lately. Most founders confuse TAM with just $ GMV/ revenue. Market size of profit pools is much more critical. It's not just about $100m rev targets- can you ever get to $50m PAT? Large flows+insufficient value add= Small profit TAM

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

However, we started hitting a ceiling on AUM growth as markets turned mid 2022. We troubleshooted plenty – offline sales team, digital marketing, more PR/ brand building, growing through distributors, etc. But none of these seemed enough to fight bad markets.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

What we saw was that as soon as we had a few poor quarters of performance, AUM started leaving the platform. The products were high beta, but the AUM was even higher beta.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

We are pushing out our rebalance on @smallcaseHQ this week. Since we rebalance only once a quarter, now is a good time to start with @Upside_AI !

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

What *laser focus* can do. "Between 2011 and 2019, Bangladesh’s exports grew at 8.6% every year, compared to the world average of 0.4%." via @business

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

I am so glad we had this adventure that taught me a lot of grit, patience and most importantly, taught me how to sell.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

In hindsight, I think we realized these things too late. We were growing so quickly that we didn’t see that there is a ceiling on where our product/ efforts would take us. We could have launched/ improved products faster, tried more distribution experiments and maybe even pivoted

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

I always be thankful to my co-founders @aagarrw , Nikhil Hooda, our customers and the investors who trusted us ( @sateesh_andra , @EndiyaVC , @ajaynanavati , @Gkatragadda and @VijayKedia1 for taking this ride together.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

Another axis on which you can build an AMC business is solving the cold start AUM problem. If you start with an AUM of Rs 500-1,000 cr, money begets money. This was never an option for us or likely for any other middle-class kids that decide to build in this space.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Our PMS did 11.5% in April, when the market was flat. Just here to celebrate a good day when you have one. 🎉

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

In essence, we could have executed better. So, it’s not all market dynamic, it is much more our own execution failing.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Have you checked us out on @smallcaseHQ ?

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

1 year

Super happy to share the first report in our series on how India consumes. First one focuses on how India eats. In true @IndiaQuotient style, it is light on industry gyaan and heavy on insights. This should make for a good lunch read - foodtech + food 😅

IndiaQuotient

@IndiaQuotient

1 year

We are excited to share the launch of our report, ‘20 Things About How India Eats’! Discover current food trends in India, emerging opportunities in India’s food tech market, VC activity in this space, and much more:

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

There is an alternate wishful thinking universe in which we have that one better quarter, crack that one big distributor, do that one thing better.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Gauri got NO CHILL

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

The S&P 500 is down 20% this year - worst half year performance since the 1970s. That's it, that's the tweet.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

The level of glee from “fundamental investors” at the crypto correction is hilarious 😂 Theek hai yaar, corrections happen in all asset classes - including yours. 🙂

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Thanks for the shoutout @bsindia ! @Upside_AI featured as one of the top PMS performers in the country for April. 🚀

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Too late to the party? Hi #SareeTwitter

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

What’s common between a bull market and bear market? “This too shall pass”

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Looking back on last year with @smallcaseHQ . Our latest blog just dropped! "We grew our AUM nearly 10x. We delivered 52% returns in the year ended Feb-21. We are in the top 10% of PMS in the country today based on these returns."

Looking back on last year

Recently, we sat down with smallcase to discuss the past year within the financial market. They asked us a bunch of questions that really helped organize our own thoughts on the last year.

www.linkedin.com

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

I don’t know who needs to hear this but your non-work time can just be to chill. Without doing anything productive, or improving yourself in anyway whatsoever.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

I own #Berkshire stock AND I own #BTC . There is no us vs them, crypto-peeps! You can happily exist in a world where you take the best ideas from everywhere and run with it #BerkshireAnnualMeeting

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

@smallcaseHQ continues to make the product better and more transparent for investors. Have you checked us out?

smallcase

@smallcaseHQ

3 years

We’re releasing new updates to make smallcases more transparent for everyone: - Live performance chart ⚡️ - Adopting ‘Volatility’ in place of ‘Risk’ 🔗 - Improved CAGR calculation method ✅ More details here:

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

4 years

We're partnered with @smallcaseHQ to bring you AI based investing. Check us out at

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

Inflation, interest rates, war, and COVID. How do you beat the NIFTY in these volatile times? @aagarrw and Nikhil, Co-Founders of @Upside_AI discuss in webinar on Friday at 4.30 pm. Register here: & Join us on📅 17th June at🕟4:30 PM @VijayKedia1

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

My article in the @livemint today on how to pick a quant fund. Tell me what you think? @SatyaSontanam

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

@hchawlah “First they ignore you..”

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Fintwit formula for tweets: - Bear market: Warren Buffett quotes - Bull market: BUBBLE! 😅

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Stellar run continues for @Upside_AI . In May, we remain in the top 10 PMS of our peer group in India. Thanks for the shout out @PMS_AIF_World

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Worried about market peaks? Graph shows no. of All Time Highs markets hit every year. Just going to leave this here. Via @CoinByZerodha

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

@abhymurarka There’s a 50% chance you’re right 😅

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

Markets are red My mood is blue Happy Valentine’s Day to you #ValentinesDay2022 #Nifty

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

This is the key demographic that invests in markets. They’ll be the buyers and sellers. People will draw any correlation 😅🙄 It’s like 3 out of 7 times it rains on Mon, Wed or Fri

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

The way I look at it, there are only two ways you should invest in crypto - (1) super long term; or (2) punting short term where you are ok with your money going to zero Anyone who claims to be an investor or trader with "target prices" is smoking something fun. #dogetothemoon

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

My article on fintech and our quest to $5tn just dropped on @YourStoryCo . Thanks #fintwit for awesome inputs which I totally used :)

How the fintech industry will help India to achieve a $5T economy

Fintech startups remain extremely well-funded, and every day, entrepreneurs are thinking of different ways to solve our many problems.

yourstory.com

Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

I have to write a 700 word article this weekend on how fintech will help us get to a $5tn economy. Tech just makes finance more efficient. Now what to do with the remaining 694 words?

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

As much as we meme about it, has there been better, quicker investor education than “Buy the dip” Only “MF sahi hai” comes close, and that took years of education. 1/n

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

@iRadhikaGupta “You are not paid to agree with me”

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

@banglani I would like to womansplain this: there is a window between somber and scruffy that all men should live within, always. Thanks for highlighting this. Not enough is written about the vectors of hair and time 😅

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

Smallcap 100 index down 20% in 1 MONTH! We are back to 2018 levels. If you were looking for a new opening to enter the market, here it is. Key words: S-I-P

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

@smallcaseHQ Funny you should ask - I just told @EconomicTimes this:

This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

lnkd.in

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

8 months

So proud of our numbers! Awesome report @BlumeVentures @BKartRed VC version of building in public 😉

IndiaQuotient

@IndiaQuotient

8 months

Thank you for the shout out @BlumeVentures ! Glad to see fund performances are not a hush-hush topic anymore. Also, the Jagged J curve story is real!

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Markets are efficient 🙂 via @SMBCComics

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

@smallcaseHQ 9. Time

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

Nasdaq down 25% in 6 months! Wow. Awesome time for us to be launching a US product 😁

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

"In school, they tell you your paper must be a minimum of five pages long. In the real world, you have five seconds to catch someone’s attention before they’re bored and move on. Today your phone offers an Olympic competition for your dopamine." - @morgunhousel

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

7 months

What we are upto at @IndiaQuotient this year. My interview with @livemint

IndiaQuotient

@IndiaQuotient

7 months

“We had a net DPI of 5.9x from fund one. We’re hoping to achieve similar numbers from fund two.” Catch @kanika_agarrwal ’s (IndiaQuotient) full feature in @livemint below ⬇️

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

The overlap of fund managers and test cricket lovers on my Twitter feed is too damn high. Next 5 days, market tweets bhool jao. It’s only pitch, batting order, blah blah 😅🤷‍♀️

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

When we look back on this market cycle, the biggest takeaway will not be covid and what it did to markets. Every black swan is “different.” It will be how retail investors have disrupted equity investing and broad based the markets. THAT is the unprecedented part.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

10 months

Our next pod is on the evolution of food tech in India. There is a lot of nuance in this conversation that only folks like @ankitnagori27 and @anandlunia who’ve watched and built from day 1 get, and have generously shared. Very highly recommend. Tell us what you think.

IndiaQuotient

@IndiaQuotient

10 months

New High IQ podcast ep. with @ankitnagori27 , founder of Curefoods, is out now! We delve into all things cloud kitchens, from its unit economics & product market fit checklist to its scope in Tier 2 & Tier 3 cities in India, & much more! Tune in now:

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Covid has solved small talk problems at the beginning of meetings 😅

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Don’t you love a good story with a great outcome? #ZomatoListing

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Our @smallcaseHQ rebalance is live! Login to your smallcase account and rebalance 🎉 @Upside_AI

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

What does this tell you about future distribution of asset value?

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

What do we do now to communicate? CALL each other?!?!?! #WhatsApp

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Opinion absolutely not based on data: The number of words in your LinkedIn bio is inversely proportional to how awesome you are

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Sales teaches you more about the human condition than any book ever will

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

I had a chance to talk to the very smart and curious @b50 on his @IVMPodcasts . Have a listen! @Upside_AI

Anupam Gupta

@b50

3 years

Can machines beat humans at investing? Yes says @kanika_agarrwal of @Upside_AI listen in to this really interesting episode on AI/ML investing: #paisavaisa

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Since everyone is on Twitter, I would like to take this opportunity to shamelessly shill @Upside_AI We are teaching machines how fundamentals work in the Indian markets - and we are doing a great job! To invest with us, write to invest @upsideai .com #WhatsApp #WhatsAppDown

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Peak bull market: Graffiti gives you investment advice 😅

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

You know you’re in peak bull market when clients quote more Buffett to you than you to them 🚀

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

When you see “flavour of the season” fund managers fall from grace every year, you realise how crazy it is that guys like Buffett, Marks, Lynch have been around for decades and still remain credible. It’s insanely difficult to build a lasting franchise in invt mgmt.

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Yaar, why does the market “owe” us a fall? What’s going on with the virtue signalling on Twitter today? No one was complaining all through last years bull market. 🤷‍♀️

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

If you buy say a 100 stocks (very diversified), you will do ~benchmark returns long term. Short term you may under/ over perform. If you toss a coin to choose your 100 stocks, you will do the above returns still. This article is a dramatic way to make the point

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

“All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone” - Blaise Pascal

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

China’s ability to trigger deep structural reforms at the risk of extreme short term pain is amazing. This is obviously something the West is no longer brave enough to pull off. It’s almost startup culture, at the scale of countries. (1/n)

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

This cartoon was made in 1981. 40 years ago! Quick reminder that markets will always have cycles and people don’t change 😅

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

Just walking down memory lane and thought I'd share how we started @Upside_AI : After working at @MayfieldFund , I realized that there is enough alpha in public markets with a major plus point - you don't need to worry about liquidity. (1/n)

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

4 years

We are doing a webinar this Saturday at 4 pm in partnership with @smallcaseHQ to talk about tech in investing. Sign up with the link below if interested!

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

3 years

My kid making his loyalties clear early 😅 #AO2022 #Rafa

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

1 year

Sarjapur is the Andheri East of Bangalore. This is a hill I’m willing to die on @peakbengaluru

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

2 years

Had a terrific time today at PMS & AIF 5.0 discussing masters' and rising stars' points of view on all things PMS with @Raamdeo , Bharat Shah, @Amit_Jeswani1 & @jigarmist . Here I am discussing how @Upside_AI AI takes an innovative approach to investing. @PmsBazaar

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Kanika Agarrwal

@kanika_agarrwal

4 years

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful” - @WarrenBuffett

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