ZenCap @kaizen_cap Twitter profile

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@_skacid

@Xime_nita_hot

@CloudyPole

@satangja

@Floszn14

@pop_wanatsanan

ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

Alpha over the decades ...

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

1/ So many MM launches (Jain Global, Freestone) and probably more to come as Citadel / etc. are closing money to new investors. Are we peak pod? Has the pendulum swung too far? Will alpha be competed away as new entrants enter? (Thoughts from a SM analyst)

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@kaizen_cap

2 months

Tal from BofA is turning out to one of my fav sell-side analysts. No ass kissing. Straight for the jugular

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Me: [Consumer facing co] is a short because [thesis] PM: But I see it everywhere! It must be accelerating Me: Data says it’s actually slowing PM: And my nephew loves it Me: Street is too high PM: His gf too. You know his gf went to Yale? Me: … PM: … Me: … PM: Buying 500bps

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

9 months

Welcome $BILL to the exclusive $45-$65 club. Current members you may know are $SQ and $PYPL. The chairman of this club is Yipit, who will dictate every second of your life until death. Should you choose to forfeit membership, Frank Bisignano will take you under his wing

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Never seen a CEO admit their biz is a commodity in such a relaxed manner as Pieter did regarding their US operations. I'm actually surprised the whole sector isn't down more from $ADYN blowing up

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Every stock is a HF knife fight these days … and pods have way more data. The only edge for single managers are 1) duration - which nobody has apparently, 2) not being deployed - taking advantage of price dislocations, 3) taking concentrated factor bets, or 4) owning $NVDA

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

9 months

B-quality company: LO: I love this stock. Sure the company has had execution issues, but nobody appreciates the 2028 margin story SM L/S: Eh, it’s an okay long. Prob works if I can hold it thru a few more Qs given R/R Pod L/S: How is this fucking shitco going to fuck me today?

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Underrated comment. PM's job is to choose factors. Analyst's job is to help PM express these factors with stocks. Time is well spent figuring out when stocks / themes are being too +ve or -ve discounted. $ is made via factor bets when this discounting swings the other way

dalibali

@dalibali2

1 year

my view is until you see something fundamentally change, no point in picking individual names. youre just trading different factor rotations anyways, might as well stick to baskets (i.e. shitco, usage/seats, growth, large cap, etc.)

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

2 years

@CarterBWorth The fact that this is a ratio means both the NASDAQ and S&P can fall 50% each and not break your line. The existence of this chart is another example that we haven’t bottomed…

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

1. Pods clearly gaining share among HFs 2. Greater % of ADTV driven by fast money 3. Uncertain macro means narratives > fundamentals 4. Capital chases prices action, driven by narratives / overextrapolation of discrete data => Massive factor swings, followed by violent unwinds

ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Price action today and last couple of weeks are making me nervous. Every day seems to be a positioning unwind. Seeing more ppl chase. Very poor breadth. Markets not selling off on more rates is very confusing. Max pain is for markets to turn once this squeeze teeters out …

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

1/ Last trading day of 2023. Some SaaS thoughts for 2024

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

5 months

Me asking my PM if he likes any of these SMID SaaS names that are down >15% over the last few weeks

non aesthetic things

@PicturesFoIder

5 months

Chinese live streamer who spends only 3 seconds promoting each product made $18.7m in 7 days 🤯

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

1/ Interesting valuation paradigm shifting in FinTech. In 2022, it was clear that credit-based FinTechs were B/S-exposed financials with a better customer acquisition channel. But they were still financials. The de-rating ultimately converged to book value, $AFRM, $SOFI

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

5 months

4x1 at MS TMT I ask about 2026 FCF CFO turns pale Confused, I look around The air feels sharp Icicle stares from dead, beady eyes A sac goes over my head A thump. No screams I jolt awake. The space is dim I see a pile of skulls and lanyards On top, there is Ken G, smiling

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

3 months

Odds of Philippe firing the whole Internet team for $META just like back in 2018? Positions for human cog opening up at Coatue rapidly

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

2 months

Software stocks have to nail cRPO, billings, ST billings, revenues, ARR, op / FCF margins. And the guide has to be perfect ... conservative enough for beats, not too conservative to indicate any weakness, but not too strong to create a tough set-up either. Tough crowd. $GTLB

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

Why is the market suddenly selling off? S/M: Protecting profits into year end Pods: Mean reversion of residual alpha, creating gross unwinds given crowd Market Makers: Short gamma hedging sell-off CTAs: Low liquidity exacerbated by momentum Me: Stocks go down after going up🤪

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

2 months

Multiples of large tech SaaS back to March 22 / October 23 all because 2 months of weakness caught investors off guard and they are linearly extrapolating the most recent data point. Sure maybe some more downside to numbers here, but not much in multiple. Time to buy

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

4 months

Today: Software sucks! Multiples too high, less rate cuts, FY guides sucked, no AI benefit, budgets are still constrained In one month: Buy software! Stocks underperformed, guides de-risked, sentiment too negative, own for rate cuts in 2H, AI $ in 2025, roll forward multiples

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

9 months

"I mean, if $MSFT is only up 4% on that print and $GOOG / $ADP down HSD, why take any print risk at all" ... asks every HF today as all positions are getting simultaneously de-grossed

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

9 days

Wow $CRWD has dropped from $400 to $300, this is a BTD opt for a stock that is ... still trading at 45x CY25 FCF, NNARR comps get materially tougher, there is real risk of deal slippage in Q, and when $PANW is discounting EDR like Nikesh's reputation is on the line (which it is)

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

@CAGR_Party Stock vs. fundamentals. Was way too focused on the latter earlier in my career. Fundamentals are important, but stocks are discounting mechanisms. Duration solves this issue over the long run, but most PMs care about ST perf

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

10/ I think too many SMs are trying to play this game these days they are inherently disadvantaged in playing. To survive and win in a world that is increasingly MM, duration is the ultimate advantage. Unfortunately, most SMs are getting chopped up by their own trading

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

$SOFI is an amazing stock lol

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

@PythiaR @chamath @wmcintyre84 @tiltwave Don't forget $LTCH, "the best SaaS company he's every seen" that has now de-listed from the NASDAQ

Chamath Palihapitiya

@chamath

4 years

My newest SaaS investment: $TSIA We just announced this morning that $TSIA is merging with @latchaccess and taking them public. This is the “???” from the tweet below. One pager is attached.

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

5 months

$PANW unleashing scorch earth on its peers by cutting of its arm to take out half of its competitors is both the stupidest and most impressive move. Pulling forward the "race to the bottom" is gutsy as hell. Stock def deserves to be punished today. But over the LT, it's a big TBD

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

1/ Three reasons why easier / harder comps are important in this market

Corry Wang

@corry_wang

1 year

Something I never understood when I was on the sellside (and still don’t understand now) is why “Y/Y comps getting easier” is ever an investment thesis Like, are you assuming other investors don’t also know how to calculate Y/Y growth? What am I missing here?

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

3 months

I think this market needs to be separated into 1) >$10bn stocks @ <30x '25 EPS and 2) everything else. Group 1 can be sized up, held with duration, and bought on dips. Group 2 is just swing trading every >20% move until we all die

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

$NVDA going to do $7-8 of EPS this year. Maybe that grows 30%? So that's $9-10 of EPS next year, so 35x-40x '24 EPS at $365 afm. If you think growth is structural / TAM inflecting and not some $ZM pull-forward, I get why you chase. I don't know shit about semis...but math works?

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

$FOUR paying restaurants $1 per online order for first 3 months + $5k switching incentive is the best new episode of this soap opera that is restaurant POS

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

Waiting for a >10% sell-off to buy stocks that go up 3%-5% every day

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

9 months

$BILL promising synergies by buying Divvy and now Melio is the same BS that $COUP fed investors about its payment strategy. Yo...it's just payments. If ppl wanted to use your payment offering, they would be using it already

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

4/ Also, it's increasingly hard for SMs to retain talent - besides the very competitive $ deals, MMs offering one thing that SMs cannot offer: a clear path in becoming a PM that is based on meritocracy, not tenure. When SMs lose talent, this becomes a death blow to the fund

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

9/ Taking a step back, more MMs mean greater vol. It also means narratives will have a stronger impact to asset prices. And positioning will become vital ... ultimately, I think the market environment we have endured over last 2 years will likely persist for longer

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

3 months

Tik tok tik tok $BILL

ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

9 months

Welcome $BILL to the exclusive $45-$65 club. Current members you may know are $SQ and $PYPL. The chairman of this club is Yipit, who will dictate every second of your life until death. Should you choose to forfeit membership, Frank Bisignano will take you under his wing

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

R/R seem terrible across TMT into EPS season, but many biz will start to see an upwards revision cycle in underlying biz strength. Age old question of duration vs. positioning. My two cents is stocks have negative skew on EPS but most will finish higher into next EPS szn

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Stock down 40% + numbers down 20% => multiple down 20%. Still not "cheap" given fwd 12 mo, but you can make the math work if you have duration + believe EPS algo fine. But def a huge narrative violation for bulls, and hard to get comfortable underwriting sequential growth

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

4/ Most attractive names will be a subset of stocks that have decelerated to <20% growth in 2023 and now trade FCF <30x and <5x sales. If a company can stabilize / re-accelerate growth, you’re going to get paid on a re-rating from FCF to Sales multiple. 4x to 6x is 50% upside

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

6/ We've seen this with how the HF game is played. From "buying companies" to "buying EPS beats" to "buying positive intraQ data". Of course competition will increase, which is why total return % should come down for the MM industry. However, I think returns will be bifurcated

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

4 months

@lfg_cap Tim Chiodo at UBS is the best FinTech analyst hands down. Ex buysider who gets it

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@kaizen_cap

1 year

Think we start selling off now as 1) EPS szn over - lack of +ve catalysts is a neg in this market, 2) funds re-grossed / chased the recent AI move => inc. selling to protect profits, 3) no room for -ve inflation surprise, 4) consumer weakness fear in 2H, 5) geopolitical risk

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

6 months

$MSFT print pretty bullish for SaaS. AI application layer way bigger than people thought if the 6% contribution is mostly inference. Net new workload growth going to benefit all the infra players. The line between non-AI and AI workloads is becoming fungible.

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

7/ If all MMs were the same, then returns will be diluted across the board. However, if some MMs have a competitive edge over others (e.g. infra, talent, data, cost, risk model), then I think lower quality MMs will become alpha sources for the former, hence the bifurcation

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

12/ Simply put, I’m positive on the space largely because I think we see increasing flows into SaaS. Generalist PMs will overweight sector given 1) declining rates, 2) AI story - secular growth, 3) IRR math works on FCF in 3-5 years. But we will see more stock dispersion as well

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Pedro leaving $MELI to go to $DLO is amazing. Like when Mike left $V for $MQ. Or Maju left $AMZN for Bolt. Respect the yolo call option

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Maybe if I get a CFA, I will finally understand why people post about LTM multiples

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

4 days

$LW down 15% after down 20% last EPS. Multiple de-rating strikes again. Tech-enabled potatoes to Idaho-potatoes

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

5 months

Oh god, may want to learn faster buddy $SNOW

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

3/ However, I do NOT think we are at peak alpha $ yet. There is likely a continued shift of capital from SMs to MMs as LPs scrutinize beta vs. alpha (as clearly demonstrated by last few years). The profit pool will continue growing although it will be less attractive to LPs

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Nothing rly exciting to me in FinTech except for $NU. Trades on GAAP EPS. Flawless execution. Mexico/payroll are call options. Brazil consumer NPLs are peaking. Cuts in SELIC will invite duration investors back into market. Stock has def moved, but it can be a much bigger co

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Some great investments happen when cyclical companies re-rate to secular multiples as end market expands / product becomes indispensable. The duration of growth justifies high NT multiples. $APPL is a great example. $NVDA bulls must believe the same is true for the stock to work

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

2/ Now, we’re seeing something similar with $PYPL and $SQ. Bulls say they are cheap, which is optically true. But when companies like $FISV are showing similar growth profiles, then the valuation argument shifts from tech-like SBC adjusted multiples to traditional payment EPS

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

2/ Price action in last couple of months has pulled forward most of the rate trade. It’s incorrect to look at aggregate software EV / Sales multiples and say stocks are undervalued. Why? Many companies are now trading on FCF. I think multiples take a breather for a bit here

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

6 months

I didn’t know Altimeter put a patent on cost cuts … Saying you’re not an activist because you don’t want to get your hands dirty, but want the credit by staying on the sidelines and claiming cost cuts are entirely novel is parasitic. Just like VCs… oh wait

Brad Gerstner

@altcap

6 months

And, yes we own a small stake in $PYPL - encouraged by recent strong comments from @acce . But @FredaDuan 's critique below stands. As owners we have a 15+ yr track record of calling it as we see it. Whether we become bigger investors in $PYPL depends on how convinced we become

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

2024 In: Beta bois Buying the dip Powell TAM multiples Crypto meme coins Robinhood / retail Out: SOTP thesis Intrinsic value Ackman Gensler Expensing SBC New pod launches

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

2/ I think the answer is YES to all of those questions, BUT I still think the industry will continue shifting towards MMs. I think we're at peak pod when measured by industry alpha % return (e.g. Citadel can't keep CAGRing at >25% like prior 5 yrs) => return to LPs will go down

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

4 months

Sell-side needs to start chilling out lol. We're glorified coin flippers... enough with this pseudo intellectual BS

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

* Not a verbatim story, but similar to ones I've had. Anecdotal bias is strong among PMs * Over long run, the fundamental story matters more * You have to pre-trade EPS with data. At EPS, positioning will go against you wrt price action. Stocks are discounting mechanisms

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

8/ I think the alpha dilution will happen disproportionately across the MM industry, with the worst being born by new launches. ExodusPoint is turning out to be a flop. Brookfield's L/S shut down. It's hard for new entrants to compete given MMs is a game of scale / data.

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

2 years

SPX has EPS risk in NTM. But I'm not sure about the QQQs. Seems EPS downward revisions happened - if anything, there's upside given OpEx cuts. Yes, some like TSLA has downside. Overall, tech EPS seems protected / multiples fine. And on CY24 EPS, there is a case for a grind higher

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

Dear semis god. Please give me a sign that 2024 will be like 2023. Just a sign so I can update my model from base case to “blue sky” scenario …

Lisa Su

@LisaSu

7 months

Merry Christmas to all who celebrate. We have so much to be thankful for, wishing the entire @AMD family and all of our friends, partners, and fans a very happy, healthy and restful holiday!

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@kaizen_cap

2 months

Say what you will about Janesh as CFO, but $ESTC is a top SMID SaaS long imo

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

Must read thread for SMs

Brett Caughran

@FundamentEdge

11 months

BEAT THE PODS: A 7-POINT RECIPE FOR SINGLE MANAGERS There has been some fun discussion here recently about the trend from single manager hedge funds (SMs) to multi-manager hedge funds (MMs or "pods"). Which is very sensical after a year like 2022 where there was a big

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

6 months

I don’t know shit about $ZI. But somebody explain why a +5% rev growth (vs. Street at +3%) and a slightly below FY guide of +2.5% growth and below Street FCF margins sends a stock >20%. I get “low bar, buy 2nd deriv” trades…but growth still sux. Was every pod short this? Help

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

Top 3 Worst Short Report Rebuttals over last 12mo by mgmt: 1. $DLO against Muddy Waters 2. Adani against Hindenburg 3. Tiger Global against “disgruntled employee”

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@kaizen_cap

9 months

Excuse me Mr. CEO. If you look at GP per business day (accounting for the extra weekend in the Q), the implied q/q growth is worse than typical seasonality. But when you look at the 2019 CAGR adjusting for the protests, the CAGR looks great. Plz help me

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

2 months

Announcing this during $SNOW Analyst Day is next level trolling

Buck

@BucknSF

2 months

SNOW’s mortal enemy getting a giant optimization gun to point at them

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

8 months

Nature is a balancing act. Munger yesterday. Kissinger today. Back to equilibrium

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

9 months

Analyst on next $TKO EPS call: can we talk about that $700mn stock sale ...

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

The money chart

ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

The biggest narrative that can totally fuck consumer / payment / internet stocks in H2 is student loan repayment. Too early (and hard) to adjust my numbers, but I can totally see this narrative just drive the discussion / price action for months. Fun times ahead

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

5/ Fwiw, I do believe $SQ and $PYPL could start working again at some point. But against tough comps in 2H, increasing consumer macro fear, and a shift in valuation framework, they are just tough to own. A mistake is underestimating downside in stocks when the driver is multiple

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

4 months

The only thing worse than seeing a stock go down 50% on a short report is realizing the short seller name is "Fuzzy Panda" $GL. Hindenburg / Muddy Waters make sense. I'm going to start a fund called Mahogany Table, cuz our stocks are quality, have support, and cater to boomers

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 months

5/ So as the MM industry continues to grow and profit $ increase, competition should also increase. In fact, we've seen this in the HF industry. Tiger cubs are obv a good example, and the prevailing notion of "buy good companies + short bad ones / fads / frauds" is widely known

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

2 months

1 yr anniversary of this tweet: +89%. Smh, should have just put everything in $NU. Will retweet in another year to see where we are

ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Nothing rly exciting to me in FinTech except for $NU. Trades on GAAP EPS. Flawless execution. Mexico/payroll are call options. Brazil consumer NPLs are peaking. Cuts in SELIC will invite duration investors back into market. Stock has def moved, but it can be a much bigger co

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

9 months

$RELY is a great example that it's a good bet to short crowded longs where the incremental buyer / seller are only pods - R/R is v asymmetric to downside. Fundamentals for $RELY were totally fine, unlike poor $CFLT

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

ARK: We're futurists and understand AI better than anybody else. We think it will add 30%-50% to GDP growth per annum Also ARK: We also sold all of our $NVDA position by 1/10/23 and missed the 140% move because we don't know anything about AI

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

8 months

LOs faking their interviews when pods ask them about their “process”

TTI

@TikTokInvestors

8 months

lmao

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@kaizen_cap

5 months

@Rebrand_As_Y Feel like >80% of that move is just re-rating from 4x to 8x sales for a biz that went from mid 20s cloud / mid teens sub revs to high 20s cloud / high teens sub growth, as the whole sector re-rated off rates. I would say <20% of that move is from AI hype?

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

8 months

This is a big brain AI play by Roark. Acquire all the sandwich data, acquire user data, run LLMs to generate the next hit sandwich so all roads point back to Arby’s. Want a slutty vegan sandwich? Arby’s. Want an Asian style gyro? Arby’s. Want a Caesar salad w/ no salad? Arby’s

Elizabeth Warren

@SenWarren

8 months

We don't need another private equity deal that could lead to higher food prices for consumers. The @FTC is right to investigate whether the purchase of @SUBWAY by the same firm that owns @jimmyjohns and @McAlistersDeli creates a sandwich shop monopoly.

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

6 months

NFP is just Yipit for macro folks

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

5 months

Me to my PM after my short goes down 10% on EPS despite ripping 30% into the event

Historic Vids

@historyinmemes

6 months

This has be the wildest sports celebration in all of history

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

4/ Second, easier comps mean greater chance of re-acceleration. Market is a game of 2nd derivatives. The Street often models linearly / humans are biased to think linearly. Reality is not linear. Stocks are mispriced if linearity is over-extrapolated, i.e. expectation variance

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

7 months

7/ AI will be more a 2025 impact for most companies in terms of revs. In 2024, we will start to see some real dispersion in multiples as 2025 re-accel stories (due to AI) will start to show up in 2H. There will be some great shorts on overhyped AI product stories

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

3/ They’re both merchant acquirers / acquirer processors at the end of the day (I know I’m ignoring Cash App). And when growth decels, the de-rating occurs because the “legacy payment” peers screens more attractive at significantly lower multiples

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

9 months

Alpha hack - just own stocks that have already reported / short stocks that are about to report over the next weeks (and cover ahead of print)

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

5 months

Listening to $SQ pitches into earnings is listening to a homeless man’s fever dream: “Well there is one extra day in Feb, it’s the year of the Dragon, the weather was 2.5 degrees colder but Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see shit this year … so that’s a 125bps impact to growth”

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

2 years

1/ “You’re not a long term / fundamental investor if you short good companies” is an immature statement anchored in recency bias. Path dependency of asset prices is less important in bull markets because duration is being awarded, e.g. dips get bought

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

2 years

@MadThunderdome Cash App within $SQ, MercadoPago within $MELI, Divvy within $BILL

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Fitch must have looked at PB positioning / flow data to inflict max pain on funds lol. Downgrade US in the middle of EPS szn right after a month of shorting covering, alpha destruction, momo chasing. Q3 could be the death blow to a lot of funds ….

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

11 days

The only thing $DDOG should buy is a stagnating CNAPP platform like Orca for the underlying tech as it moves further into cloud security. Agentless CSPM would complement its move into agent-based cloud workload protection

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

3 months

Pretty impressive growth here - crazy that FinTech funding is so dead that these guys can’t get a bid. More impressed they built their own internal ledger

Kahlil Lalji

@bykahlil

3 months

Unfortunately, our 5 month acquisition process for @getivella fell through, so we’re opening up the process to our friends on X. Ivella is a banking app that helps couples manage their finances - from the time they start dating until they get divorced or die. We have four

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

@ArdaCapital Makes sense to me. Retail buying $IOT because of AI, and $DUOL because they think it's Dua Lipa

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Price action today and last couple of weeks are making me nervous. Every day seems to be a positioning unwind. Seeing more ppl chase. Very poor breadth. Markets not selling off on more rates is very confusing. Max pain is for markets to turn once this squeeze teeters out …

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

This consumer recession is turning out to be like Frank Ocean's next album: new theories on why it's going to come soon but it keeps getting pushed out quarter after quarter, and in reality it may never happen

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

They still have a huge moat in Europe. And APAC / LatAm is TBD. US is just a harder market to compete at scale given heavy discounting. Great to good biz where durability of growth / size of TAM not as good at this stage of company’s profile, imo

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

Lmao did $PANW move EPS to Friday just so they can announce the new SASE Magic Quadrant? Software analysts have been losing sleep over this

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

1 year

The biggest narrative that can totally fuck consumer / payment / internet stocks in H2 is student loan repayment. Too early (and hard) to adjust my numbers, but I can totally see this narrative just drive the discussion / price action for months. Fun times ahead

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ZenCap

@kaizen_cap

5 months

Wait a minute $SQ

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