josh 🗣️ Profile Banner
josh 🗣️ Profile
josh 🗣️

@josh_metcalf

785
Followers
1,172
Following
92
Media
465
Statuses

21 | mediocre map maker and occasional wikipedia contributor | pro good things, anti bad things

ma-08/ ca-17 (he/him)
Joined August 2019
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
Pinned Tweet
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
After spending way too many hours putting these maps together, I want to take a minute to talk about the political landscape of the Midwest—past, present, and future. To begin, here is the 2008 Presidential Election mapped by census block group; A 🧵(RT's appreciated!) 1/
Tweet media one
24
286
2K
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
10 days
On November 5th, 2024, voters across Great Britain cast their ballots in the United States presidential election. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris would win in a landslide, besting GOP opponent Donald Trump by over 20 points. Here is that race, mapped by electoral ward.
Tweet media one
20
36
490
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
Since I’ve never posted a national map here’s the 2020 election mapped by VTD (Density map below) Feel free to ask for insets
Tweet media one
109
25
382
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Obama's first election was arguably one of the most impressive performances for any Dem in decades. 2008's lopsidedly Democratic national environment, combined with Obama's unique appeal among both rural voters and urban minorities allowed him to easily carry the region. 3/
Tweet media one
1
16
248
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
In 2022, incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron won re-election against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Here are the results of the race mapped by commune, as well as some analysis—a🧵 (RT’s appreciated!)
Tweet media one
4
29
227
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
No red states only red suburbs
Tweet media one
2
13
212
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
(Before I begin, and to avoid angry midwesterners in my replies, I want to clarify that I chose not to include the Great Plains states (KS, NE, SD, ND) because DRA doesn't have available data for 2012 in the Dakotas and getting it would have been too much of a hassle.) 2/
8
7
200
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
In 1984, Walter ‘Fritz’ Mondale prevented Ronald Reagan from sweeping all 50 states by eking out a narrow victory in his home state of Minnesota. His base was in the unionized Iron Range and Minnesota/Red River valleys, overpowering Reagan’s suburban margins. RTs appreciated!
Tweet media one
10
64
187
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
This coalition would be decisively shattered just four years later with the election of Donald Trump. By successfully tapping into the long-simmering economic and social grievances of White working-class voters across the Midwest, Trump was able to rebrand the Republican Party—6/
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
1
18
193
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Even in 2012, despite a more evenly split national environment, Obama easily trounced Mitt Romney, his Republican opponent. Despite his margins seeing major slippage in ancestrally Democratic areas such as downstate IL and Appalachian coal country, he was able to maintain a— 4/
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
3
16
192
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
4 years later, Joe Biden would indeed win over many more Republican refugees, with pronounced leftward shifts in the suburbs of nearly every major city in the Midwest propelling him to a narrow victory. Many rural areas simultaneously continued to drift right, further— 9/
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
2
12
184
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
—in the zealous character of right-wing populism. As the dust of this political transformation continues to settle, the electoral future of the Midwest remains very much in doubt. Biden’s bid for a second term in November will be a major test of the new Democratic coalition. 12/
Tweet media one
3
15
177
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
—resilient coalition. Despite ubiquitous rightward shifts nationwide, Obama managed to build on key parts of his constituency, retaining robust minority turnout and faring better in many blue-collar areas in Ohio and Michigan amenable to his 2012 auto industry bailouts. 5/
Tweet media one
1
14
172
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
Density map:
Tweet media one
7
20
169
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
—in his own populist image. Simultaneously, millions of “Romney Republicans”—educated, affluent, and primarily suburban voters who, while fiscally conservative, were unable to stomach Trump’s antagonistic vitriol—jumped ship and instead opted to pull the lever for Clinton. 7/
Tweet media one
2
14
169
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Overall, the last 12 years have seen some of the starkest realignments in recent history. Each party’s core constituencies have been fundamentally rewritten; while Democrats now fully embrace the stereotype of the wealthy elitist, the GOP has rewritten itself— 11/
Tweet media one
6
17
168
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
While a comparison of election performances in 2008 and 2016 painted a catastrophic picture for Dems, they also showed the genesis of the new Democratic coalition; as Democrats looked towards 2020, they knew they could no longer rely on rural votes. 8/
Tweet media one
1
15
165
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
12 days
Despite 2022 being a much redder year nationally than 2018, one race where Democratic strength endured was the Rhode Island gubernatorial election. Relative to 2018, incumbent gov. McKee fared worse in heavily Hispanic areas but improved in the rest of the state.
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
8
22
163
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
5 months
Quick map today, but here is the 2022 House of Representatives race in Arizona’s second district. Incumbent Dem Tom O’Halleran’s previously competitive seat was redrawn to include staunchly Republican Yavapai county, causing him to lose handily to far-right challenger Eli Crane.
Tweet media one
5
27
156
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
—cementing the growing urban/rural divide. Furthermore, troubling backslides for Dems in minority-heavy urban areas, particularly with Hispanic voters, caused many Democrats to raise the alarm of an impending racial depolarization and an end to identity politics. 10/
Tweet media one
2
10
160
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@alexanderao My theory is just that for a long time the Iowa Democratic party just had better statewide organizing and image, whereas Missouri Dems just threw in the towel decades ago. You can see the border even more clearly in 2012 - remnants of Iowa's competent statewide Dem apparatus
Tweet media one
2
4
126
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Thanks for reading! As always, these maps take a tremendous amount of time to make, so if you enjoyed the thread a like and RT would be appreciated. If you have any races you’d like me mapped, feel free to Dm me! x/
5
7
120
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
The last time the GOP won the greater Chicago area was in 1988, when Bush Sr. romped to victory on the back of blood-red suburban margins. Though Democratic strength came primarily from Black voters, a burgeoning coalition of White liberals was visible in Northside and Evanston.
Tweet media one
8
30
116
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
TIL that West Virginia has exactly one precinct full of ski libs (Canaan and Snowshoe resorts)
Tweet media one
2
3
111
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
An addendum to my last thread: these maps show the best Dem/GOP performances since 2008 in the Midwest (in other words, Romney suburbs/Trump rurals and vice versa.) Despite 2008 being a high water mark for dems, it’s interesting how many areas became even bluer in 2012.
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
Tweet media three
Tweet media four
5
21
91
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
@RuNoseP At least todays blue dogs are miles better than the (racist) ones of old
1
0
90
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
Last night, attorney and infamous poster Will Stancil was bested by clean energy policy manager Katie Jones in the DFL primary for Minnesota HD 61A. Jones, who was endorsed by incumbent Rep. Hornstein, ran strongest in downtown Minneapolis but lagged in affluent Kenwood. 1/x
Tweet media one
5
13
87
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
What explains the voting patterns of these counties in SE Minnesota? They voted dem consistently until 2016, they're not part of the Driftless area, there aren't any extractive industries in the area, and they're geographically isolated from other ancestral D farmers in the state
Tweet media one
8
4
87
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
Voter density in NorCal and the Central Valley by block group very aesthetic very nice
Tweet media one
2
6
84
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
Swing from 1984 President to 2020 President in Minnesota Edina swung left by 75 points
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
5
8
80
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
In honor of our new (presumptive) presidential nominee, here is a map of Kamala Harris' 2010 bid for California Attorney General. In this midterm barnburner, GOP nominee Steve Cooley very nearly flipped California red by running up the score in ancestrally R suburban strongholds.
Tweet media one
2
19
75
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
Hello! I've published 30 new election datasets between 2002 and 2010 in Wisconsin. These include: -All federal elections for both the Senate and the House -All statewide elections in 02, 06, 10 (Gov, Att. Gen, SoS, Treasurer) -All State Assembly and State Senate races Enjoy‼️‼️
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
Tweet media three
Tweet media four
9
7
67
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
5 months
It's underdiscussed just how gerrymandered the NH state senate is
Tweet media one
5
1
64
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
5 months
In 2022, Attorney General Maura Healey was able to flip the Massachusetts governorship to the Democratic Party, ending 8 years of Republican governance under Gov. Charlie Baker. Though some envisioned a competitive race, Healey underperformed Biden’s margin by just a few points.
Tweet media one
5
11
62
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
7-1 1984 Mondalemander
Tweet media one
5
1
63
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
Published datasets for 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 congressional races in Minnesota Collin Peterson was such an electoral beast
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
Tweet media three
Tweet media four
2
6
57
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
The Northeastern Megalopolis' racist cousins
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
5
4
55
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Trend map from 2020 to last night's CO-04 results. A few things of note: -Suburban shifts flopped, especially in Douglas -Major slippage in Hispanic southern counties -Mixed bag everywhere else Overall not a lot to glean from this, but the Latino vote is increasingly worrying
Tweet media one
3
7
51
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Added precinct results for 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial elections in Rhode Island.
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
1
2
40
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
5/ Here are the same results, adjusted for density. In this map, the National Rally’s two bases of support—the floundering deindustrialized north of France, and the opulent Côte D’Azur—are clearly visible. Likewise, the mostly-urban nature of Macron’s coalition is evident.
Tweet media one
2
3
36
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
2/ Macron fared remarkably worse in 2022 than in 2017, despite facing the same unpopular opponent. Though France’s “Republican Front” had long been successful at preventing far-right candidates from gaining power, Macron’s poor performance revealed cracks in his coalition.
Tweet media one
2
1
34
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Quick map I put together for my internship but here is the Dem primary for the 2022 RI gubernatorial election. McKee, the unpopular incumbent, eked out a win with his strength in Northern RI. Conversely, Foulkes performed well in the south, while Gorbea captured the Latino vote.
Tweet media one
2
9
34
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
What accounts for the more pronounced rightward shifts in this part of Florida? I assume it's comparatively more WWC than the rest of the state but are there other reasons? McCain +6.3 Romney +12 Trump +23.7 Trump +23.3
Tweet media one
7
3
37
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
3/ But where did Macron perform the worst? Though his margins slipped virtually everywhere, they cratered the most in the rural areas of Normandy and Central France. Overall, his margin of victory narrowed by approximately 15 points. See
Tweet media one
2
1
34
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
It's remarkable how clearly defined the borders of majority-Black neighborhoods in big cities were in 2012 compared to 2020, due to Obama putting up Assad margins with Black voters combined with Romney performing respectably in affluent inner-city neighborhoods
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
Tweet media three
Tweet media four
1
3
32
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
4/ What explains this shift? As rural French voters continue to feel more and more ‘left behind’ by the current party system, many are instead buying into Le Pen’s populism towards what she refers to as “Forgotten France”.
Tweet media one
1
1
30
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
10 days
Though most of her votes came primarily from urban areas, she made significant inroads in many rural areas, particular in Wales/Scotland as well as Southwest England. Trump, by contrast, performed the best in the Midlands and Anglia.
1
0
41
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
Uploaded datasets for 2014 and 2022 gubernatorial races in Rhode Island (2014 data may be somewhat wonky due to third-party presence)
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
0
1
25
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
10 days
Despite Harris being able to claw back some support in the deindustrialized North of England, the GOP has continued to make considerable gains in the region in recent years. Whether or not they will be able to remain competitive here in the future is up for debate.
2
0
39
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@NoahJAguirre This vexes me
1
0
27
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
In the concurrent DFL congressional primary for MN-05, currently held by Rep. Ilhan Omar, moderate challenger Don Samuels lost by a comparable margin in the HD 61A portion of MN-05. Similarly to Stancil, Samuels performed best in whiter, more affluent neighborhoods. 2/x
Tweet media one
1
1
26
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
1 month
Hmmm
Tweet media one
3
0
25
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
@carsausage71 Both counties are fairly urbanized! There are also many Dutch voters in the area, who are ancestrally Republican but have moved away from the GOP in the Trump area (same as Northwestern Iowa)
1
0
22
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
@wisconsinmapper Nuanced and well-reasoned disagreements with Obama’s healthcare plan
0
0
21
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
The Minnesota HD 61A election was unsurprisingly much less polarized than Omar's primary. Stancil comparatively performed better downtown, while Jones gained significant ground in Samuels-friendly neighborhoods. 3/3
Tweet media one
2
1
20
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Which color scheme do we like better?
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
8
1
17
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
6/ Of course, this is mostly surface-level analysis. The French election system is more complex than I give credit here, and the major parties have been in flux for most of the 21st century. However, the two elections give key insight into the future of French electoral politics.
1
0
15
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
1 month
TIL that Ross Perot came within 7 votes of winning Mohave county, Arizona
Tweet media one
0
0
15
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
@souljagoytellem One of my favorite videos of all time
0
0
14
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
@justtrujames Southern MO, Joplin, Springfield, Cape Girardeau
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
Tweet media three
Tweet media four
1
0
14
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
7/ Thanks for reading! As always, creating these maps is a time-consuming endeavor so a follow is appreciated if you’d like to see more maps in the future!
2
0
13
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
10 days
Thanks for reading! Feel free to follow me if you’d like to see more (and even potentially real) maps in the future 🫡
1
0
19
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@DariusVidas Like zero people, yes (for the most part)
0
1
13
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
If Biden does end up tanking the election in November this guy is gonna get absolutely crucified
@AllanLichtman
Allan Lichtman
3 months
A supporter shared this picture. It was also a fan who shared President Biden‘s former chief of staff Ron Klain’s email resulting in this message from him: “He’s staying in. Here’s to the 13 Keys which don’t turn on fickle polling.” July 19, 2024 4:25 PM PST
Tweet media one
229
3K
9K
1
0
11
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@pamapguy Still can’t get over the fact that there’s a 96% White town in SWPA literally called Coal Center that voted for Biden by like 40 points
2
0
12
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
5 months
@RuNoseP One of the wettest we’ve ever seen from the standpoint of water
0
0
11
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
@MassJumbo 6-2 and the R pack district flips
Tweet media one
0
0
12
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
Published datasets for (almost) all statewide races in California in 2010. Enjoy! (data may have minor errors)
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
2
0
12
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@TheAleksee Ah gotcha, I figured it was something like that but I wasn't sure which industry it might have been
0
0
10
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
This is mapped by vote share, not margin of victory, which is why there’s not much green on the map; the third-party vote in 2016 kept Trump’s vote shares relatively depressed in many rural areas.
1
0
10
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Thank you mr takei very cool
@GeorgeTakei
George Takei
4 months
Fascinating.
2
16
74
0
0
10
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@LyonEpikGamer I don’t think he did, I doubt his support would have been concentrated enough anywhere to win a precinct
0
0
9
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
5 months
The 2004-2008 county flip map in Wisconsin is so satisfying. Obama was such a juggernaut in the midwest
Tweet media one
0
0
9
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
5 months
@AL_Elects 2016. I think it's more representative of NH's redder tint downballot
0
0
7
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@_fat_ugly_rat_ Greater Driftless, sure, but it doesn't match the political trends of the rest of the region in that it's been consistently Democratic since the New Deal whereas the Driftless only started voting D as a result of the farm crisis in the 80s
1
0
8
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
9 days
@TheAleksee My methodology here was just to take the 2024 election results and compare the Tory + Reform vote share against everyone else combined (which explains why Wales/Scotland are so blue)
0
0
11
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
@AndrewFiggy This map is pretty interesting—my hypothesis is that areas with active coal mining swung right due to Obama's environmental stances, whereas the other parts of Appalachia where mining had been dormant for decades were more amenable to the auto bailouts (and were ancestral dems)
Tweet media one
2
1
8
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
Tag list (Like this tweet to be tagged in future maps) @MapRepository
0
0
7
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
Wtf…
Tweet media one
4
0
7
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
Cook County downballot races are always the same map man 😭
@SageOfTime1
Sage of Time🇵🇷🌴
6 months
The 2024 Dem Primary for the Cook County State Attorney Race, a contest between former justice Eileen O'Neill Burke and University of Chicago Professor Clayton Harris III, was a close fought contest on the idiological battle of Criminal justice reform in the Democratic party,
Tweet media one
6
27
80
0
0
6
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@dubioushandle Here you go (Research Triangle and Charlotte)
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
0
1
7
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
6 months
Big thanks to @wisconsinmapper for his guide to mapping with Harvard ROAD data!
1
0
7
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
Would it theoretically be possible to map this election out or is Venezuela too opaque with their sham election results
@AP
The Associated Press
3 months
BREAKING: Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro is declared the winner in the presidential election amid opposition claims of irregularities.
1K
851
2K
1
0
5
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
5 months
@Dem_Soc_Dem_S I think the current map is fine as is. If MS ever gains another district tho it should def also be maj black
0
0
6
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Reminder that they are still selling dollars for 84 cents over at predictit
Tweet media one
0
0
6
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@TheRealAleknati I will say that a big chunk of ET is overly confident 10th graders which is why I try to stay on its more analytical and grounded side
1
0
5
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@SageOfTime1 Incredible this was only a 4 point win for Ds
0
0
6
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
@TheAleksee The Villages shifted 6 points left from 2012 (though it is growing pretty fast)
Tweet media one
1
0
6
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
4 months
Is this just who we have as a press secretary now
Tweet media one
@NewsWire_US
NewsWire
4 months
Jean-Pierre says Biden should be "commended" for debate performance
15
12
71
1
0
5
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
2 months
@MapRepository Voting Districts as defined by the Census Bureau
0
0
5
@josh_metcalf
josh 🗣️
3 months
@ferald_gord From the DRA maps tab, click on the 'My Maps' dropdown menu in the top left, then go to 'Published Datasets'. Sort by state and scroll down to WI, then checkbox the elections you want to add and click 'show' in the top menu
2
0
6