Johnny Szerdi @johnnyszerdi Twitter profile

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

@CryptoKaleo @CryptoKaleo I'll make it even simpler.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

MASSIVE BITCOIN MINER DEFAULTS COMING #Bitcoin miners are operating at a net loss at #BTC 's current prices, meaning they're profitless. What happens when their revenue get's a -50% chop on 4/26/2024 due to the halving event? What happens to the $4 billion in debt used to

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

While most are getting tricked into thinking the bull market just started🤦‍♂️, the US Leading Indicator Index (LEI), which has a 100% historical accuracy of predicting recessions, just posted a new low well below the recession signal. Ignore the narratives, not the data.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Recession Checklist: - Cash & Cash flow (easier said than done I know but try) - Pay off credit cards & any high APR loans (ex. car) - Spending habits (No more Cheesecake Factory) - Patience to DCA during max pain - Always be learning! (30 min/day at least) - Ignore the noise

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

CBDCs are evil. Shame on . @federalreserve for promoting it as “financial inclusion”. The only reason they’re doing this is to get rid of physical cash and track all transactions. Let’s not give up the small amount of privacy we have left.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

#Crypto twitter rn 🤣

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

8 months

I'll send $100 in $ETH to the person who has the best reply to the question below 👇 What's the number one thing you'd like to get better at when it comes to investing in markets?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

Less than 0.01% of all #Bitcoin addresses hold nearly 40% of all coins in circulation. And there's people out here thinking this price action is institutions leaving banks to go into $BTC 🤦‍♂️ It's all manipulated to use retail as exit liquidity during tough economic times.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

The 10Y-3M bond yield spread has never been this inverted in its history (-1.18%) And people think the bull market is back? God, please help them.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Here are the 3 signals that we need to see before going bullish again on #stocks and #crypto . Let's go 👇🧵

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

5 months

@burrytracker This is misleading. The top marginal tax rate for high income earners making over $400k will go from 37% (now) to 39.6% and their net interest income tax rate from 3.8% (now) to 5%. 37% + 3.8% = 40.8% (now) 39.6% + 5% = 44.6% (proposed) That's just a +3.8% rise in capital

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

The M2 money supply just had it's largest drop since the Great Depression and is now negative y/y 👀 But make sure to buy #stocks and #bitcoin tho because a dude on twitter who was bullish on Luna this time last year, just made a bullish chart that made me feel warm and fuzzy.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

This current #stock market rally is carrying a lot of noise but most people don't realize its due to one thing which could also crash the market... Let me show you what's going by first helping you understand our financial system at a birds eye view. /1

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

This recession is going to create a lot of new millionaires. Are you ready?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

We are now seeing a large divergence between the S&P and FED Liquidity. We haven't seen this since the March and August 2022 bear market rallies. Probably nothing right? "Buy Stocks b/c 200 day MA!" Chart c/o @t1alpha

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

The list of mass company layoffs in 2023 so far... IBM 3M Goldman Sachs Blackrock SAP Spotify Google Microsoft Amazon Intel Lyft Salesforce Stripe Vimeo Coinbase Gemini And the market rallying into this is bullish?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

The dollar as the world reserve currency isn’t going anywhere. Stop wasting your time thinking it’s about to collapse.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

Blue = Central Bank Liquidity Orange = #Bitcoin Are you pay attention? Copy and past the ticker below and add it to your TradingView so you can keep your eyes on Central Bank Liquidity. 👀👇 FRED:WALCL-FRED:WTREGEN-FRED:RRPONTSYD

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

The FED's favorite inflation gauge, Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures less Food & Energy), increased +0.3% m/m and is at 4.6% y/y. For those hyper focused on headline CPI, this is the metric that actually matters to the FED and it didn't budge. NO PIVOT for May FOMC!

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

Crypto twitter thinking that bank failures are bullish for #bitcoin is wild lol.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

People who say “Don’t try timing the market. Just DCA and forget it” are the same people who don’t have an investing cycle process and are down from buying all year last year. No one can time the markets perfectly but you can get pretty darn close. Study the data.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

WARNING ⚠️ Most haven’t read this update from @BLS_gov They’ve changed the CPI weight for the January report in an attempt to make it look like inflation is falling more than it actually is. This may cause a sharp rally as the market mistakenly thinks disinflation is bullish.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Please understand I support and fully believe in #Bitcoin and crypto in the long term. I will get aggressively bullish when it’s time. But it’s not time yet.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

GM! The market continues its short squeeze with the as expected CPI of 6.5% When you look under the hood, it’s again, mostly due to energy and oil. Food, medical care, and servers remain inflated. Oil and energy declining shows the economy is not healthy. Fade this rally.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

If you're saying the market bottomed, you're ignoring history. Below compares the S&P, Fed Funds (4.33%), and the 10Y-2Y yield curve (-0.69%) The dates in yellow are market bottoms which took place at least 245 days AFTER cutting rates and AFTER the yield curve reverted positive

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

When are people going to wake up? #TrudeauOutOfControl

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

GM! While most are falling for this obvious bear market liquidity pump🤦‍♂️, the US Leading Economic Index (LEI), which has a 100% accuracy of front running recessions, hit it's lowest point since Feb 2021 and is showing no signs of a "soft landing". Ignore the narratives, not the

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

Who’s ready for the #bitcoin dump back to $25k?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Wow people get so excited lol. Don't forget to zoom out some times.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

#BTC Weekly: Very Bullish I completely agree with @AlemzadehC here. The completion of Wave 5 just showed huge support and we are ready for blast off! Get ready #Bitcoin

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

When rich people are fearful, they run to stores of value that are safe, liquid, and have a track record like gold and bonds. If I was a #Bitcoin market maker who wants to exit into a safe store of value, I’d be trying my best to capitalize on a narrative and suck in retail so

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

My buddy who’s big in commercial real estate here in Miami: “Glad I got a chance to sell my 4 bitcoin this weekend to break even. I was sweating it when it dropped to $16k. People haven’t got a clue what’s coming. Raise as much cash as you can”

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

The 2Y-3M just inverted for the first time since 2019. This indicator has a 100% historical accuracy for predicting recessions in the near term. The next 6-9 months is about to get real.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

3 years

GM! Who’s staying engaged with crypto even on the weekends?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

After the seasonal adjustment and weight revision, the CPI rose 0.5% in January (6.4% y/y) beating expectations (6.2%). An increases in shelter was the largest contributor with increases also from energy/oil. Higher rates for longer and no pivot!

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Who’s ready for the last #dump of 2022?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

GM! Want to be in a better mood instantly? Take 5 minutes to think and give thanks to all the blessings in your life. God is good.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

What an incredible bear market bounce by #Bitcoin and equities. Thanks CPI, for another short opportunity.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

$28k #Bitcoin is a great spot to short.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

#bullish ?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

The @federalreserve raised rates from 0% to 4.33% in 11 months and the S&P is only down -6.8% and you think they're going to pivot?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

4 months

Where my team and I got out of Solana $SOL Learn more at

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

I’m incredibly happy #Bitcoin is finally pumping! I really hope it gets back to $30k again. A short opportunity like that again would be amazing! Keep pumping! 🤑

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

3 years

If you guys missed buying #Bitcoin yesterday and want another chance, I can buy Bitcoin right now and it’ll go down. Always happens like that. But I’m willing to take the L for ya’ll. 😀

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

GM! I could see #bitcoin tapping $20k and #ETH $1,500 before continuing its down trend. Narratives are flying around everywhere. If you’re feeling #fomo , you’re falling for the trap.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Ohhhh boy lol.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

JUST RELEASED: Mega Cap earnings summary. All numbers are Q4 y/y. $AAPL: Net income -13% E/S -10% $GOOG: Net income -34% E/S -31.3% $AMZN: Net income -98% E/S -97.8% @Apple bad @Google pretty bad @Amazon what the...

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

Who's ready for $26k #Bitcoin ?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

If you’re chasing green listening to this “FED QE IS BACK” narrative, you’re gonna have a bad time.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

8 months

If #Bitcoin breaks this trend line, it's over.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

The #0DTE volume for the $SPX month end mark up was wild yesterday lol. The degens trading these Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) options contracts have made up almost 50% of the S&P's volume since December What happens when body builders stop taking steroids? Chart c/o @t1alpha

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

Another CPI led by energy deflation. Another short term pump from a market that thinks disinflation is good news. Same story for the past 9 months.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Reason number 1 why I own ZERO #crypto going into 2023. People have no clue how bad this is going to get…

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

Spring bear rally 2023? Bear Sterns collapsed on 3/16/08 and the market proceeded to rally 14%+ peaking on 5/19/08. A CNN headline on 5/1/08: "The Dow closes above 13,000 for the first time in almost 4 months, as investors bet that the worst of the credit crisis has passed."

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

The next family party about to be awkward af. #Bitcoin #bearmarket

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

#Bitcoin dominance is telling a different story about this bear market bounce...

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

When you hear someone say "Inflation coming down is bullish for stocks", show them this chart of CPI vs the S&P500. This market has a long way to go before the FED's 2% inflation target...

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

#Bitcoin finally getting close to my shorting zone (red) between $31,200 - $32,300! Hopefully it keeps pumping! 😁

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

Imagine if you could learn everything below for free instead of paying for an expensive course or wasting time searching on Youtube... 1. How to use macro data 2. How to evaluate stocks 3. A framework for underwrite real estate deals 4. How to trade options 5. How Central

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

GM! While most think the bull market is back, the few of us understand that this rally is a direct result of the US Treasury draining their Treasury General Account (TGA) which injects $110 Billion/month into the markets until the debt ceiling gridlock is over.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Everyone thinks money makes rich people rich. Nope. The cycle of going into debt to acquire cash flowing assets that pay themselves off and doing it over and over again is what makes rich people rich.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

NO PIVOT

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Currently… The stock market: “We ain’t having a recession bro.” The bond market: “Lol. Uh, yes we are.” Who’s right?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Sentiment is hilarious right now. All the bulls think everyone is bearish and all the bears think everyone is bullish. What do you think?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Here's a chart of the S&P500 vs the Fed Funds Rate since Nixon took the US off the gold standard in 1971. Notice the S&P bottomed 4 - 24 months AFTER the FED cut rates (pivot). Not pause rates. Cut rates.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

I remember a time when this crypto was being yelled to the heavens by millions of people online that it was going to flip #Ethereum and #Bitcoin . Since that moment, it’s absolutely crushed people. No matter how legit something looks in crypto, never emotionally HODL.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Update. 7 miles complete. @DroOrozco @alexoncrypto @martyluko @RichardHeartWin

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

Update. Thanks for playing.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Bro, the actual bull market is in Gold 👀

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

One more day of fake rally into CPI before 📉 ?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Whenever I see earnings headlines, I think of this cartoon from @Hedgeye . Quarterly y/y rate of change > "Beating Expectations"

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

The last time #M2 was negative was the Great Depression and you wanna call a bottom in risk assets? @garrrrrf sent this to me this morning. Give him a follow.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

BREAKING: #Bitcoin has decoupled from the traditional markets! ...to the downside...again. Just like November except @binance / @silvergatebank is the new @FTX_Official .

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

GM! I decided to treat myself this morning with a $42 breakfast.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

If you've been patiently waiting to buy a home, year-over-year price changes are now negative for the first time since 2008. I think you'll get a good shot soon.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

TL;DR Markets are based on one thing. Liquidity. With net liquidity temporarily being positive due to Govt. spending offsetting hawkish FED policy, its keeping markets afloat. But when (not if) it ends, could cause markets to crash. Please share this and lmk in the comments.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Even though no one knows the exact day, happy birthday to our lord and savior, Jesus Christ! When people think of peace, they think it means a lack of troubles. Peace actually means an abundance of His presence. Merry Christmas everyone ❤️ Isaiah 9:6

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

It’s better to make money than to be right. Lots of people get stuck to one crypto project because it made them a lot of unrealized gains and then they HODL it back to their original investment or even go into the red. Take profits and move on the to the next one.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Will the S&P break the rising wedge tomorrow with #JPowell speaking or will he send it higher for another leg up?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

"No foreseeable rate cuts in 2023"

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Me: So I need to pay you every time I buy something or make money? Govt: Yea. It's called taxes. Me: Wow ok. How much do I owe you? Govt: Can't tell you. Hire someone to figure it out. Me: This is getting expensive. What if they're wrong? Govt: Straight to jail.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

While the crypto gurus tell most people to load up on altcoins this week, the recent PMI numbers are telling a different story to the few who pay attention to it. Lowest levels since May 2020… But buy #stocks and #crypto cuz “look at this bull flag pattern bruh” c/o @garrrrrf

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

GM! The FED isn’t going to cut rates lol.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

GM! This new years rally has made me more bearish.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

@_ThorFinancial Node fees shouldn’t exist. “Hi community, we’ve decided to steal less from you”. Lmao.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

8 months

@KobeissiLetter Your title should say, "7 mega cap stocks add $500B in market cap to the S&P500"

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

So with interest rates rising higher, we’re about to have a 5% APY, risk free, six month treasury bill. Why in the world would I (investors) put my money in the stock market that’s projected to do that or worse in 2023?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

@AlemzadehC You’re a fraud @AlemzadehC

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

. @BearNakedCrypto so was that the melt up?

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

It was great hearing @JamesGRickards on @HedgeyeTV last week. Here's one of my favorite clips. Thanks for having him on @KeithMcCullough . Link to full webcast below.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

A key factor of my bear market strategy is marrying a doctor. Congrats babe!

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Existing home sales decline for 12th month in a row at -36.9% y/y. This is not a sign of "bull market's back". Look under the hood instead of just looking at the charts.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

The Congressional Budget Office single handedly gave #Bitcoin a short term and long term bullish case. And its eating it up with that pump. Long term I am bullish on #BTC but this short term pump is directly due to the fiscal liquidity injection from the debt ceiling crisis.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Lots of people asking "why pump if FED hawkish?" Wall Street is counting on the FED to cut as soon as it reaches a 5.1% terminal rate. For that to occur, these 3 things must happen by Summer. 1) Rapid disinflation to 3% 2) Unemployment to 4% 3) Real GDP Soft Landing /1

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

The last several bear markets going back to the Great Depression were all at least -50% draw downs from their peaks. The $SPY has only drawn down -27% from its peak and you think the bear market is over? 2008 GFC: -57% from peak Dotcom: -50% from peak 1973 Oil Crisis: -50% from

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

2023 will be the year of the fourth turning. If you don’t have 6 months worth of living expenses in your savings, I’d recommend including your budget in your New Year’s resolution and start asap. 2022 was pain in the markets. 2023 will be pain in the real economy.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

People understand that . @SBF_FTX ’s parading on TV with these interviews is part of the scam right? Is anyone really believing this “sorry we mismanaged customer funds” none sense? The guy is a criminal.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

1 year

If things are breaking at 6% inflation, I wonder what 4% or lower will look like. Get ready for the market to realize that disinflation has been bearish the entire time.

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

Probably nothing right? #Binance

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Johnny Szerdi

@johnnyszerdi

2 years

I don't get what all the hype is all about with #ChatGPT . 👎

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