John Barker @johnbarker44 Twitter profile

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John Barker

4 months

$ASPN has monster, secular growth name for the next decade written all over it. Near certainty that use cases for aerogels will keep ramping in an electrified world. Their chief scientist is a legend in the field. PyroThin dominating EV world.

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$OPEN underappreciated story line: in the worst 3-4 months in **history** to be an i-buyer (velocity of decline) they are clearing 50-60% of inventory with positive GM. And their 5% fee more than covers holding costs, so they have positive unit economics on say 70% of inventory

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 month

In the next approx 2 months, $ASPN will likely announce - major German OEM win - conditional approval of DOE loan, which should fund enough capacity at GA plant to support production of 2 million EV batteries a year ($2b in annual revenue) - blow out Q3 earnings as per usual

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

@ACTBrigitte There’s also the fact that 70% of post-grads vote Dem. You’re entire pathetic party is whites without college degrees 😂

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

22 days

Huge trim to $APP yesterday with proceeds going towards $ASPN $TMDX and $NVTS. Applovin is a breathtakingly good company / mgmt team, but think the others have better R/R at this point.

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

On the bright side, $OPEN has officially hit 96% down from ATH and now the story line is fully synced up with Amazon's fall in 2001 😂

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 month

$ASPN I just relistened to the ER call and got something I missed previously. In the last 30 seconds or so Ricardo says they expect DOE conditional BEFORE THE ELECTION. If that holds, that’s a monster catalyst before the next ER

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

27 days

$ASPN been annoying the last couple weeks, but its time is rapidly approaching. With **existing** facilities they think they can do $800m+ rev, with 30% margins in 25-26. That’s $240m x 25 PE = $6b mkt cap. More than 3x. And that’s WITHOUT GA capacity

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

17 days

$ASPN Oppenheimer news. Expanding use cases for aerogels are inevitable. Hat tip once again to @SamHolliday20

Aspen Aerogels stock has upside amid technology platform expansion, says Oppenheimer By Investing...

Aspen Aerogels stock has upside amid technology platform expansion, says Oppenheimer

au.investing.com

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

The @AppLovin mgmt team is full of studs. 42% FCF margin and run rating almost $2b a year now. Software growing 75% yoy (still, as they start lapping some good quarters. Video game numbers from the best software company on the planet $APP

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

10 days

Mercedes more concerned than ever about thermal runaway and battery safety after previous failures. Hmm $ASPN

Mercedes-Benz EV battery fire could lead to global push for better transparency

A Mercedes-Benz EQE 350 electric vehicle caught fire in a South Korean parking lot earlier this month, setting off a blaze that not only damaged hundreds of...

www.techspot.com

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

In June 2017, $OPEN didn’t operate in Atlanta. In June 2022, 1 of every 16 homes sold in Atlanta is to @Opendoor #ProbablyNothing

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

"Things don't look good for $OPEN. $5b of inventory that they'll take 10-20% loss on. Going to be ugly. You'll see." lol this is seriously the best that twitter bears have? It's frankly embarrassing.

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

@AndrewYang What do you say to someone that says “ok, I believe you that we need 3 parties and like the principles of the fwd party, but any fwd candidate for senate/prez in the near term has a zero chance of winning but a good chance of causing the democrat to lose”?

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$OPEN not unexpected, but would like to stabilization at 7-8%. all goes back to the Q3 guide--we know it will be softer than Q2, but exactly how much

Opendoor's Buy-to-List Premium Falls Back to Earth — Mike DelPrete - Real Estate Tech Strategist

After reaching record levels earlier this year, Opendoor's buy-to-list premium (the difference between the purchase price and current listing price of a home) has fallen dramatically -- a reflection...

www.mikedp.com

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

$APP generated the same FCF in the last year as $AMD (AMDs mkt cap is 10x). Software biz growing 90%. Adjusted EBITDA margin on software of 73%! (This is net, not gross margin!). Wow 👀

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

19 days

$ASPN Getting beyond the EV FUD: A) EV sales are growing like crazy B) GM is # 3 OEM brand in EV sales (behind tsla and Hyundai/Kia) C) when you include Honda and Subaru (that use ultium), ultium is actually #2 behind only Tesla! D) total annual growth of ultium sales was 83%!

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

2 week update. $OPEN looks to be adding 100 reviews/week. $OPAD looks to be adding 0.5 reviews/week 👍

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 month

Haha $LUNR up 4% after winning a contract that’s like 40% of its mkt cap 🤦‍♂️

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 years

$MQ Monster ER. Conservatively guiding at 50% growth. Short track record is trouncing guidance. Pymt provider for half of relevant fintech, BNPL, crypto, and even legacy bank (Citi announced today to go along with GS and JPM). Great job pounding the table on MQ @SimonSaysStocks

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 years

$MQ fastest growing brands among all US adults: #5 $COIN, #9 Afterpay, # 10 cash app ($SQ). Among gen z, Instacart at #2 . And $AFRM #9 for millennials. Common denominator? $MQ (yes this is oversimplified)

Ranking: Fastest Growing Brands 2021

Charting which brands have most successfully capitalized on shifting consumer appetites in a highly disruptive year.

morningconsult.com

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 month

Couple of stocks that could have an $ASTS type run: $RCAT and $EVLV. Both have a chance to 20x revenue in the next few years

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

@Tyler_Okland_MD Sure this *sounds* good, along with all of your other data points, but several people on twitter have a low opinion on the company with no supporting data, so...

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

5 months

Wow $APP amazing company. Their software alone is a $2.8B run rate business growing at 90% and with adjusted EBITDA margins of 73%!! Still criminally undervalued. What a management team @AppLovin

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

19 days

Good lord, $APP doing its best $SMCI impression. Its up 5-10% every single day

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

7 months

$TMDX is going to thrash ‘24 estimates. Last 4 quarters, in order, have grown top line **sequentially** by: $10m, $11m, $14m, $15m. Most recent Q had $81m rev. Street estimates for next 2 Qs are $84 and $88. They’re likely doing $95+ Q1 & >$100 in Q2. Huge beat and raise coming

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

24 days

The market has an irrational dislike for EV stocks right now. $ASPN $AEHR etc. Good opportunity imo

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

25 days

Solar stocks can run huge if Dems win WH and rates are falling at the same time $ARRY $NXT $ENPH $FSLR Some adjacent names can do well too $NVTS etc

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

10 days

Looks like $TMDX getting nice AH bounce on this

TT Day Trading Alerts ™

@trooper_trading

10 days

$ENSG $SWN $TMDX $CHK The Ensign Group Set to Join S&P MidCap 400; Curbline Properties & TransMedics Group to Join S&P SmallCap 600 #news #tradingTips #StocksInFocus

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

$TMDX $ASPN $APP I think all 3 are going to thrash earnings estimates next month. Been adding recently to all. Honestly not sure which one is the best buy rn, but they’re all good. Probably most confident in TMDX earnings, but it’s also the most expensive. 3 💎s

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

A company that is: 1) Voraciously eating market share 2) Growing 400-600% in recent Qs 3) FCF positive 4) GAAP NI positive 5) Has $2b in net cash 6) Outperforming it's SPAC investor deck (by a lot!) 7) NPS of 80+ $OPEN

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

Only a small step above a roulette bet on the risk/return profile, but $LPSN can legit 100x by 2030. What other stocks can do it?

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

$ASPN just increased their gross profit by 47% **sequentially** and 506% YoY. Stock should probably be in the mid-$30s right now. My largest position bc I think it will be mid-$30s soon enough

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

again, in the worst market in i-buying history. So this means, with enough scale, they would have been profitable on even net income basis, even in this market. When they own 2-3% of RE, they will print $, no matter the macro environment

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

Worth saying again: $APP is now run rating almost $2B a year in FCF. Are there any other companies under $50b mkt cap that can say this?

John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

$APP generated the same FCF in the last year as $AMD (AMDs mkt cap is 10x). Software biz growing 90%. Adjusted EBITDA margin on software of 73%! (This is net, not gross margin!). Wow 👀

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 month

Good news for $ASPN

Canada to follow US lead in imposing 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles

Trudeau also announces 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum and says ‘China is not playing by the same rules’

apple.news

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 month

Some of my favorite investments are gross margin stories, that is, GP growing much faster than Revenue. Couple in this category are $ASPN and $APP. Smaller one that I like a lot is $EVLV. Rev up 30%, GP up 95% in last Q

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

$IESC (great company) is fundamentally worse than $POWL. POWL is growing faster and producing same FCF at half the EV

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$MQ is being given away right now. EV of $3b, likely to do $300-350m GP in 2022 (EV/GP of about 9), and literally organically doubled their GM in both 2020 and 2021. Partnered with everyone

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

$LPSN has big volume on up days, low volume on down days (recently). Any good news at all is going to turbo send it

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$HIMS up 168% from May low, positive YTD, and set new 52w high today. And it's still cheap.

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

@Roadto_million $LPSN is a turnaround play w new mgmt. Even after doubling in July, it’s down 65% YTD and 96% last 5 years, despite being one of the leading chat bots with a great customer list. Moving more into conversational AI. Absurdly cheap if new mgmt can execute

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

@Tyler_Okland_MD My conviction in $OPEN, which has been very high, has actually increased in the last few weeks. Thought Carrie and Eric did a great job on the earnings call. Eric is a hedgehog. Crazy that we’ll probably get another chance to but this close to $5

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 years

Lol $PUBM has an EV of $1.1b and TTM EBITDA of $96m, for a trailing EV/EBITA of 11. Been growing 50%+ last two years and conservatively guiding for 25% in 2022. What a dumb market right now

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 month

@BrettKrieger12 Agreed. I think HASTE is an underrated component of rocket lab’s future value $RKLB

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

26 days

Companies that have something like a monopoly trade at premiums. $AXON trades at like 70x EBITDA and >100x FCF at 30% growth. $TMDX is also “something like a monopoly”. It trades at about 75x EBITDA at 100% growth

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 years

1992: “People will not buy stocks online without advice from their broker. This is your retirement $ for crying out loud!” 2022: “People won’t sell their house online…” $OPEN seems more obvious every day

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

The most recent $HIMS qrtr was probably better than casual investors understand. Sequential growth had been about 18%, but accelerated to 31%! 21% QoQ subscriber growth. ATH 79% gross margins. And first Q of FCF

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

9 days

NFA but $ASPN really feels like it’s coiling here for the German OEM announcement. Assuming we get that in the next week, I’d guess we don’t see the $20s again

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

$TMDX update to my pinned tweet. They’re growing top line by $15-16m per quarter. They did $97m in Q1. Estimates for Jun & Sep Qs are $99m & $102m. They’re actually going to do $110+ and >$120. So…another huge beat & raise coming 🚀

John Barker

@johnbarker44

7 months

$TMDX is going to thrash ‘24 estimates. Last 4 quarters, in order, have grown top line **sequentially** by: $10m, $11m, $14m, $15m. Most recent Q had $81m rev. Street estimates for next 2 Qs are $84 and $88. They’re likely doing $95+ Q1 & >$100 in Q2. Huge beat and raise coming

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

$APP is uniquely awesome but it had become my largest position, so sold some today and bought more $ASPN $TMDX $SMCI $RKLB , all of which I think have slightly better upside than $APP. $ASPN is now my largest position

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$PL Google’s $100m equity stake is probably under appreciated, as are the ways in which $GOOG will incorporate @planet data into their ecosystem in 2030. My 4th largest holding and growing ($CROX, $HIMS, $S)

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 years

$MQ 🚀

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 year

Stock that I own that has the most $NVDA potential: $PL. Nvidia was just a gaming company, that is now dominant in data, AI, autonomous/robotics. $PL is just an EO company in 2023…

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

$LPSN is running away from me. I just started lightly scaling back in at $1.08 this am and next thing I know it’s $1.20, then $1.30 (now $1.40 AH). Still really cheap if they execute modestly well. LPSN and $APPS are dirt cheap and will at least 3-5x if they can show turnaround

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$OPEN app 5k ratings at 4.7 stars; beautiful app $OPAD app 75 ratings lol at 3.5; pretty pathetic app (I’ve used both)

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

Some REALLY quality companies that I don’t own: $CRDO $IDCC $PAYO $IESC $NU $DECK $PSTG Just like them a bit less than mine: $ASPN $APP $ADMA $TMDX $POWL $SMCI $HOOD

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

26 days

Is it even possible to read this transcript and not buy (more) $ASPN?

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

11 years

hey

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 years

$OPEN market cap is $4.6b. Not a leap to state their home inventory fully covers asset-backed debt. That leaves $2.1b in net cash, so EV = $2.5b. For $2.5b ur getting a co that did >$500m cont profit in 2021, growing >100%.

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

Some earnings beats are just obvious $TMDX $ASPN

John Barker

@johnbarker44

5 months

$ASPN is going to blow out ‘24 forecast. They’re saying $225m thermal and $155m industrial, $380 total. In Q1, thermal did $65.4 & grew 23% QoQ. $65.4 annualized is $262! Even if they just flatlined at Q1, they’d beat thermal fct by 16%. They’ll do >$300 thermal this year 🚀

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$OPEN and $MQ both top 25 let’s go

Great Place To Work US

@GPTW_US

2 years

👏 Congratulations on ranking #9 on the 2022 Best Workplaces in the Bay Area™ SMB list! See what employees say about what makes @Opendoor a great workplace: 👏🎉 #BestWorkplaces #GPTWcertified #Fortunemagazine #BayArea #BestCompaniestoWorkFor

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

$TMDX ok past performance may not be indicative of future results, but I mean…

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

First glance is that looks like a **really** good quarter by $HIMS. >80% growth, increasing 2022 rev guidance by 12-15%. Will be curious to see how it trades tomorrow (AH is meaningless). The $HIMS train rolls on

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

I love how $APPS has a stable, growing business with a long track record of success, an enviable customer list, positive FCF, and a PE of like 8…and it trades like a SPAC about to run out of $ smh

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

Who in their right mind keeps selling $APP here at a PEG of like 0.6? Weird price action the last 3 months, but it’s building a heck of a base for next leg higher. Think it’s $110 by Labor Day

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

$HIMS great call and insight by @LA_stevens_

L.A. STEVENS

@LA_stevens_

4 months

Important info for $HIMS investors In the months/quarters ahead, you should expect short reports/potentially negative news flow for the company Presently @capitolforums 's Mike Williams is reaching out to former HIMS practitioners w/ what appears to be an intention to

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 year

@Cluster_6 $EOSE they’re 3/31 financials and so cash doesn’t include April raise (and obvs the primary cash is coming from DOE loan)

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$HIMS If they just hit estimates for this year (and don't blow them out as per usual), they'll have a 92% CAGR on GP the last 3 years: 2019 - $45m 2020 - $109m 2021 - $204m 2022 - $316m >75% gross margin for the last 5 quarters Probably something...

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

$POWL currently at $1.3b EV and TTM FCF of $221m, so 5.9 EV to FCF. Last few Qs were blowouts. They report Tuesday afternoon. Long

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

I think $LPSN has a chance to be the $TSSI of the second half of the year. Legit could be >$5 by year end IF new mgmt team starts to show turnaround. Big if

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

Is $CLBT the next $AXON? Seemingly a must have for law enforcement

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

@DatadoorIO But that one guy said the OD house down the street lost $. Surely that’s at least as important as your thousands of data points?

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

You were warned $LPSN

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 year

$HIMS seems to be forming a nice base. Sideways for 3 weeks and has held the mid-May low around $8.60. If it gets to $9.50 I’ll be looking for a quick move to $11

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

4 portfolio's. Which has best raw returns by 2030? 1. Small/Mid specs: $CRSP, $DNA, $ORGN, $DM, $CLPT 2. Mid-cap, unproven: $OPEN, $UPST, $MQ, $AFRM, $APPS 3. Large-cap, kinda proven: $SE, $DDOG, $SNOW, $MELI, $MDB 4. Large-cap, sold off: $FB, $PYPL, $NFLX, $NVDA, $AMD

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$OPEN is a LT hold for me so not fussed either way about ER, but Q3 guidance is worse than I thought it would be. I did some 5-second bar math and calculated implied contribution margin of 2.6% for Q3, assuming the gap between cont profit and adj ebitda from Q2 held constant

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

@value_invest12 The concept that $OPEN is holding highly liquid, sale ready homes in 48 diverse markets that have growing net populations is not discussed or appreciated enough. The statistics for home price declines are always national, but OD inventory is much better than national avg

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

@Tyler_Okland_MD Good listen. Enjoyed the PHX commentary and completely agree. $OPEN can't kill it in such a homogeneous market, but as long as it has + CM it still serves value by covering fixed costs. Be interesting to see the margins in super heterogeneous markets (NY/NJ, Boston, SF)

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 year

$EOSE I’m not a subscriber but if you are

Energy Vault, Eos, ESS Inc: SPAC-listed long-duration tech firms battle towards profitability

At look at the fortunes, prospects and claims made by three energy storage technology firms that joined the SPAC-driven public listing wave.

www.energy-storage.news

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

7 months

$EOSE has been building a nice base since late Nov. Any positive news would push this 50%+ higher in a heartbeat

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

@Tyler_Okland_MD To the people freaking out: this is priced in. If H2 guidance is *bad enough*, the stock I'm sure has more downside. But it's not like the market is expecting 10% CM in perpetuity and anything less = look out below. The market is pricing $OPEN as going concern risk

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 year

A couple stocks that have a good chance of being really obvious in retrospect: $PL and $RKLB. Space will have its “AI moment” before too long and it’ll be a gold rush. PL and RKLB have good balance sheets and great founders at the helm

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

Everything you need to know about $OPEN in one tweet. Scale is *everything* for this company

Thomas Rice

@thomasrice_au

2 years

@RetiredLifeNC @Ultimate13fifa1 @DatadoorIO Yes, and then it's just about volume vs overheads. The actual buying and selling of houses has been profitable for over 5 years. Q1 2022 was profitable overall because they sold 5x as many houses as Q1 2021, driving opex as a % of revenue down from 10.5% to 3.0%.

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

$ASPN way under promises. Q4 had $70m fct, actual $84m = 20% beat. Q1 had $75m estimate, actual $94.5 = 26% beat. More of this coming soon

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 months

$ASTS is crazy. Its 10x in 3 months and yet still has another 20x 5 year potential if it works

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

Still doing DD on the actual company, but $STNE is a screaming buy on fundamentals. $2.5b mkt cap; $1b in net cash; $600b in TTM FCF. EV to FCF of 2.5x. And impressive growth, customer count, etc. It could arguably 10x on valuation expansion alone

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

A lot of the "things are worse now than 2 months ago" narrative is baked into $OPEN. If commentary isn't really bleak, stock rallies after ER. But if it's bad enough, it will tank. @Tyler_Okland_MD and @DatadoorIO , reasonable chance at 4% CM in Q3? Much chance of negative CM?

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

1 year

@Zerosumgame33 I bought $EOSE mostly in mid- and late-2022. Bought some more in the mid-2s couple weeks ago and thought that was that. But after that CEC discovery I bought the shit out of today’s dip. Outrageous DD by this group

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

25 days

$ASPN management astutely pointing out that EV demand almost doesn’t matter. OEMs have factories running & fixed costs to cover, they have to run at >50% capacity. They will keep producing knowing the demand will be there eventually. Their only other option is to halt production

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

@pienuthome @SriniKoganti @Tyler_Okland_MD It was for tax purposes and it was scheduled in advance and it’s a fraction of what she owns. Nothing to see here

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

$CELH starting to look interesting here. $11.5b EV and likely to do $350ish FCF this year. No position

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$OPEN gapped down yesterday on 1.3m volume in first 5 mins of trading and 3.8m shs in first 30 mins. Gap up this morning on 2.3m shares first 5 mins and 6.3m shs first 30 mins. Didn't dig into the specific blocks, but likely retail selling yesterday, institutional buying today

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

19 days

@SamHolliday20 That would be nice. I’m hugely overweight $ASPN right now. I can’t help but keep buying it under $25. I’m hoping the Benz or BMW announcement + DOE conditional + blowout ER = $45 by Thanksgiving

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

27 days

@MiKim1892289 2 things: 1. $800-850 is pretty clearly a stretch goal, not a new forecast 2. They seem to be saying that that’s the run rate they would be at sometime in ‘26 In any case, I’d stand by the comment that $ASPN is likely a $75+ stock in 2 years

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

9 months

I can’t think of any founder I’d rather place a bet on than @Peter_J_Beck . Read about him and watch his interviews. Brilliant, driven, tough, self-taught. It feels like he’s going to make $RKLB a generational company through sheer will (amidst a dozen other great qualities)

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

3 months

The most interesting part of $LPSN is that it’s got a new c-suite from VmWare. Classic turnaround scenario.

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$OPEN getting their chance to prove it in a buyer’s market!

MT Capital

@MT_Capital1

2 years

Mortgage demand at a 22 year low 👀

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

$OPEN -53% YTD and -66% last 6 months $OPAD -26% YTD and -39% last 6 months Even after $OPEN posted gaap net income, this spread in performance persists. Officially getting annoying.

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John Barker

@johnbarker44

2 years

The $OPEN investor ancestry has interesting roots. @mlevchin and @arampell among others.

Keith Rabois' Homebuying Startup OpenDoor Raises $9.95M From Everyone | TechCrunch

Well. It seems like a lot of Valley investors want to see the process of buying homes become a lot more efficient. After Khosla Ventures VC and former Square COO Keith Rabois teased that he was...

techcrunch.com

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