NEW: With Mail-in voting in MD having started, I've made a tracking sheet showing the % of ballots sent and returned by County and Party. I've put the 2020 stats next to them for comparison.
If I were a house Democrat, the demands I'd start with are:
*No McCarthy
*Equal number of Ds and Rs on committees
*No frivolous investigations (no laptop etc)
*No kicking members off committees
*No holding Gov't funding hostage for demands
Last month, MD Democrats gained 2 seats in the state senate to bring their total to 35 - their highest since 2010. Both were in Biden-won districts that were held by retiring Republicans.
#MDpolitics
MD governor by precinct. Wes Moore did historically well in the suburbs, though overall performed slightly behind Biden in 2020 due to lower urban turnout. This is the highest margin of victory for an MD governor candidate since 1986.
#mdpolitics
Saying *he* protected abortion rights is misleading. He vetoed a bill expanding access to it, which was overridden by the MDGA and withheld appropriated money to train abortion providers.
As Governor, I promised to uphold Maryland law on abortion—and I kept my word.
In the Senate, I will support legislation that makes Roe the law of the land, in every state, so every woman gets the reproductive care she needs, because no one should come between a woman and her
This was one of the hardest labors I've done making a map, and here it is. On Tuesday, Janet Protasiewicz won Milwaukee and the WOW counties by 13%, greater than her statewide margin of 11.
Brooke Lierman, a rising Democratic star, broke a glass ceiling by being elected to the office of Comptroller, becoming the first woman elected to a statewide office in Maryland and only the second woman elected statewide after Senator Barbara Mikulski.
#MDpolitics
Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks won the Democratic Primary for senate last month. She won by winning a multi racial coalition in central MD.
To commemorate
#Pride2022
, here's the final Maryland senate vote to legalize same-sex marriage, from 2012. Some notable patterns emerged from the breakdown.
#MDpolitics
Chester County over the last decade is ground zero for suburban realignment. In 2012, it backed Romney by a pinch, but gave Biden a strong win in 2020. It will be key to the success of any statewide Democrat over the next couple election cycles.
Legendary Maryland Comptroller Louis Goldstein won a 9th term in 1990, winning nearly every precinct in the state. No other candidate for office has received as high of a vote share in Maryland since then.
#MDpolitics
Yesterday, the MD legislature passed a new congressional map over Gov. Hogan's veto. While all 8 districts would have voted for Joe Biden in 2020, the eastern shore-based
#MD01
held by Andy Harris (R), would have only voted for him by 1,652 votes.
#MDpolitics
In every presidential election since 2008, Maryland has gotten more Democratic. Joe Biden was the best performing Democratic presidential candidate in the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, perhaps in part due to a favorite son effect from neighboring Delaware.
#MDpolitics
Balt Co has had some significant shifts over the last 20 years. Democrats have improved almost everywhere in the county except for the heavily blue-collar southeast around Dundalk, where Bethlehem Steel once operated.
Frederick is a growing exurban county that voted Democratic for president for the first time since 1964. Biden's largest gains came from the city of Frederick and areas adjacent to Montgomery County in the south.
#MDpolitics
11/13: Counties have started finalizing their results. Among them is Talbot County, the birthplace of Frederick Douglass. Biden leads there now by 116 votes, making him the first Democratic presidential candidate to win it since 1964.
#MDpolitics
Frederick County Exec update:
Hough leads Fitzwater 52-48 with 10348 ballots left to count. Mail-ins have been breaking 73-27 Fitzwater. If that rate continues, Fitzwater would win by ~593 votes.
This race isn't over yet.
Howard, the most educated county in Maryland, has bolted to the left in the Trump era. Joe Biden was the best performing presidential candidate in Howard since it was created in 1838.
#MDpolitics
In the Maryland Governor's race, Wes Moore won 34 of 47 Senate districts, 5 more than the three-fifths threshold of 29. There were no crossover districts.
#MDpolitics
A fact about Kamala Harris I always have in my back pocket is that she held California's Class 3 senate seat, the same that Richard Nixon held before he was chosen for VP by Dwight Eisenhower.
The last time Republicans won Maryland in a Presidential election was 1988. George H.W. Bush won off the strength of suburban and rural areas. Michael Dukakis' support was limited to urban, majority-black, and unionized areas.
#MDpolitics
The 1964 Presidential election marked the first time since the founding of the GOP in 1856 that Vermont voted for a Democrat for president. Repelled by Barry Goldwater's conservatism, Vermonters voted for
@lyndonbajohnson
in a landslide.
3 weeks ago, Janet Protasiewicz won an 11-point victory for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Her opponent was Former WI SC Justice Dan Kelly, who lost in 2020 to Jill Karofsky. Protasiewicz improved on Karofsky most notably in the MKE region, though lost ground elsewhere.
Lancaster County, PA was Trump's third-best county in PA by raw vote margin in 2020. It has however, had modest shifts towards Democrats over the last couple cycles, and the Harris campaign hopes it can gain more ground this year.
Frederick County Councilwoman Jessica Fitzwater (D) narrowly won the Frederick County Executive race against State Senator Mike Hough (R). She will be the second woman and second Democrat in a row to hold the position after it was created in 2014.
#MDpolitics
The new MD House of Delegates map increases the total number of districts from 67 to 70. Joe Biden would have carried 47 districts last year.
#mdpolitics
Theory: the decline of local news makes the minority party in a state gravitate towards extreme candidates who are unelectable statewide, because national news which covers national party figures fills the vacuum.
Since Virginia may well repeal its Right-to-Work Law, here's the 1965 House vote to repeal the Taft-Hartley Act, which first authorized states to implement the law. It was defeated by a coalition of Republicans and southern Democrats.
Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich defeated health care executive David Blair by 35 votes, even closer than Elrich's 77-vote win in 2018. Like in his first race, Elrich's home base in the Silver Spring/Takoma Park area carried him to a plurality win.
#MDpolitics
Baltimore County is a mix of blue-collar white and nonwhite suburbs, white-collar suburbs and some rural areas. Joe Biden got the highest vote share of any presidential candidate here since Richard Nixon in 1972.
#MDpol
Joe Biden improved on Hillary Clinton in nearly every county in MD, but a look at precinct-level results gives another half to the story. Biden ran behind Clinton in predominantly African-American precincts in places such as west Prince George's and west Baltimore.
#MDpolitics
In Montgomery County, the only competitive county in SWVA, Democrats picked up a single seat on the board of supervisors, flipping the majority on the board to 4 D-3 R.
In 2016, suburban Anne Arundel County, home of the state capitol of Annapolis, flipped Democratic for the first time since 1964. This year, it swung even more towards Democrats, with Joe Biden being the best-performing presidential candidate there since 1988.
#MDpolitics
#VA09
, also known as the "Fighting Ninth", was historically a swing district in southwest Virginia. Rural and populist in nature, Democrat Rick Boucher had a strong hold on the district from 1982-2010. The last time he won a contested race was 2006, when he won in a landslide.
In what was expected to be a top Republican target, Delegate
@BC4MD
(D) defeated former Delegate Deb Rey (R) in a rematch for HD-29B by more than Wes Moore won the district. Even Brooke Lierman carried the district in the comptroller race.
#MDpolitics
The right to an abortion up to viability remains protected in Maryland thanks to a 1992 referendum. It received widespread support across most most parts of the state, with the Appalachian west being a notable outlier.
#MDpolitics
One of the reasons Georgia flipped last year was the narrowing of the Republican margin in central Georgia's Houston (pronounced HOW-ston) County. Home of Robins AFB, it personifies the shift of military voters toward Joe Biden.
#GApol
Last week, Wisconsin passed new legislative district maps after over a decade of repeated litigation. In 2020, the state assembly map had a 50 Trump districts and 49 Biden districts and the state senate had 18 Biden districts and 15 Trump districts.
Happy birthday
@JMilesColeman
! Here's the 2008 election of former Rep. Frank Kravotil, whose birthday is also today. Kratovil won narrowly by running up large margins in legacy Dem rural areas on the eastern shore. A libertarian taking 2.5% may well have put him over the edge.
Throwback time. Senator Paul Sarbanes won his last term in 2000 against former Howard County police chief Paul Rappaport. In addition to doing well in cities and several suburbs, he swept or was competitive in many rural and working-class areas, like his native lower shore.
Longtime State Sen. Chap Petersen was defeated last night by political newcomer Saddam Salim. Redistricting can likely be attributed to Salim's win, as the district was shifted eastward, picking up areas around Arlington Petersen was new to.
#VAPrimary
Although it has historically been Republican territory,
#MD06
was held by Democrats from 1969-1993. Conservative Democrat Beverly Byron would cruise to re-election, such as in 1984, when she beat perennial candidate Robin Ficker, even as Reagan swept the district.
Exurban Carroll County swing over 10% towards Biden this year. He was the best-performing Democratic presidential candidate there since 1976, and was the first Democrat to win any precincts there since at least 1996. (I can't find precinct results before 2000)
#MDpolitics
Make no mistake, Larry Hogan is a "die-hard lifelong Republican" who will hand Republicans control of the Senate.
You don't have to take my word for it, just ask him yourself.
Meanwhile, Biden's vote share in Maryland has broken 63%. That would put him above FDR's best performance in the state (62.4% in 1936) and behind LBJ's 65.5%.
#MDpolitics
The 2022 elections were a good year for Maryland Senate Democrats; they gained 2 seats (33+34) and won over 60% of the statewide vote. With 34 seats, this is the most Democrats have won in the chamber since 2010.
TIL Zell Miller was a proponent of eliminating the 60-vote threshold for the filibuster. He asked "Can you show me any unit of government in a democracy anywhere where 41 votes can always be 59 votes?"
In the week since he announced, Hogan has
-not said who he'll vote for for prez in November
-not said how he'll vote on the abortion ballot initiative
-has not said if he'll vote for McConnell for senate leader
Things to watch Hogan for on the campaign trail:
-Will he vote for Trump?
-How will he vote on the abortion ballot initiative?
-Will he vote for Mitch McConnel for senate majority leader?
Last month, Democrats dominated Maryland in both the presidential and and house races. But there still was some ticket-splitting. Even though Republican Kim Klacik publicly embraced Donald Trump, she ran over 14% ahead of him in
#MD07
.
#MDpolitics
For the 2nd cycle in a row, Prince George's County was the most Democratic county in the country, with Joe Biden getting just short of 90%. He slid slightly in black areas close to Washington DC though.
#MDpolitics
This past Friday was the birthday of former Rep. Connie Morella (MD). She last won re-election to the Montgomery County-based
#MD08
in 2000. As the most liberal Republican in the house at the time, she supported things like abortion rights, gun control and public schools.
#MDpol
Happy (belated) birthday to one of my favorite former senators,
@clairecmc
! In 2012, she easily won re-election, winning 106 state house districts, which is very impressive in hindsight. Democrats would do well to take some of her advice at winning rural voters.
Joe Biden carried 47 out of 67 of Maryland's House of Delegates districts. While many seats are multi-member, there are 8 Republicans in Biden districts and 0 Democrats in Trump districts.
#MDpolitics
.
Comptroller Peter Franchot won re-election by 44% in 2018, the largest margin percentage-wise that either party has won for any contested election in Maryland since 1990.
#MDpol
Washington County, in Appalachia, swung 9 points more Democratic between 2016 and 2020, in large part due to a strong showing by Joe Biden in Hagerstown and its traditionally conservative suburbs.
#MDpolitics
Question 1 was a referendum on giving the MD state legislature the power to move around money in a governor's proposed budget. Gov. Hogan and the state GOP opposed it, but it still passed very easily, even in conservative areas. Only 4 precincts in the state rejected it.
#MDpol
Arizona's 6th district, based in Scottsdale, is a Democratic-trending area north of Phoenix. Incumbent David Schweikert (R) has been facing ethical issues as well as lack of fundraising, and may be in for a tough race against Hiral Tipernini (D).
Maryland state legislative elections have not been immune to realignment. Since 2010, Democrats have lost strength with blue-collar whites and gained with suburbanites. This coming election cycle might well see more of the same.
#MDpolitics
In Maryland’s SD-33, Dawn Gile (D) has pulled ahead of Sid Saab (R) to flip this suburban, Republican-held seat. Her lead will only grow as more mail ballots come in. Democrats continue to pad their supermajority, and could flip another seat (SD-37 in Harford) soon
The Charleston metro (or "Tri-County Area") has been a bright spot for South Carolina Democrats in recent years. Usually accounting for around 16% of the statewide vote, this area could be instrumental if
@harrisonjaime
hopes to upset
@LindseyGrahamSC
.
#scpol
#TheMapRoom
I am saddened to see Maryland’s fiscal trajectory heading in the direction of Washington DC. Moody’s downgrade of its outlook for the state—the first of its kind since 2011—must serve as a wake-up call.
State Sen Sarah Elfreth emerged from a crowded primary for the open MD-3 wedged between Baltimore and the DC area. She won by putting up crushing margins in her Annapolis-based district (hashed outline). Former Capital Police Officer Harry Dunn did best in the Glen Burnie area.
Maryland Republicans desparately wanted to win back LD9 which they had lost in 2018. They fielded appointed Del Reid Novotny against incumbent Sen Katie Fry Hester, but Hester ended up winning re-election decisively.
#MDpolitics
Charles is a fast-growing suburban/exurban majority-black county in southern Maryland. Joe Biden improved nearly everywhere, even most black-majority precincts.
#MDpolitics
In the upset of the cycle, activist Jazmin Di Cola defeated Frederick County Council President M.C. Keegan-Ayer by a single vote in the Democratic primary for the council district 3. Di Cola did best in precincts where the Democratic electorate skewed Hispanic.
#MDpolitics
Harford is a county to watch in the next few cycles. Joe Biden was the first Democrat to crack 40% there since Jimmy Carter in 1976. His gains tended to be largest along the Route 24 and I-95 corridors.
#MDpolitics
Last month, Anne Arundel County Executive Steuart Pittman defeated County Councilwoman Jessica Haire to win a second term. Pittman's win can be attributed in large part to a strong showing in the Annapolis area.
In an upcoming analysis for
@Elections_Daily
, I'll be discussing important counties in the 2020 election. Perhaps the most important will be Maricopa, Arizona. Casting 60% of the statewide vote, it has not voted for a Dem pres. candidate since 1948, but it might this year.
Central Anne Arundel Co. has quickly gone from R-leaning to a double-digit Biden district in just a few years. It includes fast-growing suburbs such as Odenton, Crofton and part of Severn.
While it's considered part of the Baltimore metro, Howard is behaving more and more like metro DC .
2004: 54-45 Kerry
2008: 60-38 Obama
2012: 60-38 Obama
2016: 63-29 Clinton
2020: 70-27 Biden (with more vote to come in)
Embattled Baltimore State's Attorney Marilyn Mosby finished 3rd in the primary, behind former assistant State's Attorney Ivan Bates and Hogan-backed deputy MD Attorney General Thiru Vignarajah.
#MDpolitics
Rep. John Sarbanes was put in an unusual position this year when the district he represented was redrawn so that he lived 20 miles away from it. Nevertheless, he won easily against former talk show host Yuripzy Morgan.
Howard County Executive Calvin Ball handily won re-election against former Executive Allan Kittleman. Kittleman's 41% might be the best performance Republicans get in Howard for quite a while.
#MDpolitics
On Tuesday, State Sen George Barker was defeated by Fairfax Co School Board member Stella Pekarsky in the southwest Fairfax-based 36th district. Barker did strongly in areas he had previously represented, but was swamped in new territory.
#VAprimary
In an otherwise bleak night for the Hogan wing of the MD Republican Party, former deputy State's Attorney Jaymi Sterling, who is also Larry Hogan's stepdaughter, defeated her ex-boss and 22-year incumbent Richard Fritz in a landslide.
#MDpolitics
With Virginia in the news this week for the Republican nominating convention, here's the county-level Presidential shift from 2000-2020. Buchanan County in the heart of coal country swung a whopping 87% to the right, while Harrisonburg swung 54% to the left.
#VApolitics
When comparing the performances of the 3 statewide election winners in MD by margin, Moore did best in white precincts, Brown in black ones, and Lierman in rural precincts on the lower shore.
#MDpolitics
Former Prince George's State's Attorney Glenn Ivey defeated former Rep. Donna Edwards in the Democratic primary for
#MD04
. Ivey and his family are something of a dynasty in Prince George's, with his wife serving as a councilwoman and his son being a state delegate.
#MDpolitics
Wes Moore did relatively well in historically Republican Harford County, surpassing Joe Biden's 42.6% from 2020. At the same time, Republican Barry Glassman, who is the incumbent Harford County Executive, ran double-digits ahead of Dan Cox in the Comptroller race.
#MDpolitics
What initially looked like a sleepy race in Howard County Council District 5 now seems to have heated up in the final weeks. Incumbent David Yungmann (R) is attempting to hold his seat against Joan Pontius (D) in a district that has trended hard to the left in the last 6 years.
In Maryland, Biden outran the percentage of registered Democrats who turned out in most places. Though there were a few pockets where he ran behind it. Here's what that looks like when mapped by precinct.
#MDpolitics
Howard County, MD
1984: R+16.1
1988: R+13
1992: D+6
1996: D+7
2000: D+8
2004: D+9
2008: D+21.9
2012: D+22.0
2016: D+34
2020: D+44
Challenge: find counties that have swung to the left more than 9 times in a row.